Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

Maternal immunisation against Group B Streptococcus: A global analysis of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) can cause invasive disease (iGBS) in young infants, typically presenting as sepsis or meningitis, and is also associated with stillbirth and preterm birth. GBS vaccines are under development, but their potential health impact and cost-effectiveness have not been assessed globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed the health impact and value (using net monetary benefit (NMB), which measures both health and economic effects of vaccination into monetary units) of GBS maternal vaccination in an annual cohort of 140 million pregnant women across 183 countries in 2020. Our analysis uses a decision tree model, incorporating risks of GBS-related health outcomes from an existing Bayesian disease burden model. We extrapolated country-specific GBS-related healthcare costs using data from a previous systematic review and calculated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to infant mortality and long-term disability. We assumed 80% vaccine efficacy against iGBS and stillbirth, following the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, and coverage based on the proportion of pregnant women receiving at least 4 antenatal visits. One dose was assumed to cost $50 in high-income countries, $15 in upper-middle income countries, and $3.50 in low-/lower-middle-income countries. We estimated NMB using alternative normative assumptions that may be adopted by policymakers. Vaccinating pregnant women could avert 127,000 (95% uncertainty range 63,300 to 248,000) early-onset and 87,300 (38,100 to 209,000) late-onset infant iGBS cases, 31,100 deaths (14,400 to 66,400), 17,900 (6,380 to 49,900) cases of moderate and severe neurodevelopmental impairment, and 23,000 (10,000 to 56,400) stillbirths. A vaccine effective against GBS-associated prematurity might also avert 185,000 (13,500 to 407,000) preterm births. Globally, a 1-dose vaccine programme could cost $1.7 billion but save $385 million in healthcare costs. Estimated global NMB ranged from $1.1 billion ($-0.2 to 3.8 billion) under the least favourable normative assumptions to $17 billion ($9.1 to 31 billion) under the most favourable normative assumptions. The main limitation of our analysis was the scarcity of data to inform some of the model parameters such as those governing health-related quality of life and long-term costs from disability, and how these parameters may vary across country contexts. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that maternal GBS vaccination could have a large impact on infant morbidity and mortality. Globally, a GBS maternal vaccine at reasonable prices is likely to be a cost-effective intervention.

Meningococcal B Vaccine and Meningococcal Carriage in Adolescents in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The meningococcal group B vaccine 4CMenB is a new, recombinant protein-based vaccine that is licensed to protect against invasive group B meningococcal disease. However, its role in preventing transmission and, therefore, inducing population (herd) protection is uncertain. METHODS: We used cluster randomization to assign, according to school, students in years 10 to 12 (age, 15 to 18 years) in South Australia to receive 4CMenB vaccination either at baseline (intervention) or at 12 months (control). The primary outcome was oropharyngeal carriage of disease-causing Neisseria meningitidis (group A, B, C, W, X, or Y) in students in years 10 and 11, as identified by polymerase-chain-reaction assays for PorA (encoding porin protein A) and N. meningitidis genogroups. Secondary outcomes included carriage prevalence and acquisition of all N. meningitidis and individual disease-causing genogroups. Risk factors for carriage were assessed at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 237 schools participated. During April through June 2017, a total of 24,269 students in years 10 and 11 and 10,220 students in year 12 were enrolled. At 12 months, there was no difference in the prevalence of carriage of disease-causing N. meningitidis between the vaccination group (2.55%; 326 of 12,746) and the control group (2.52%; 291 of 11,523) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.31; P = 0.85). There were no significant differences in the secondary carriage outcomes. At baseline, the risk factors for carriage of disease-causing N. meningitidis included later year of schooling (adjusted odds ratio for year 12 vs. year 10, 2.75; 95% CI, 2.03 to 3.73), current upper respiratory tract infection (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.63), cigarette smoking (adjusted odds ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.83), water-pipe smoking (adjusted odds ratio, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.30 to 2.54), attending pubs or clubs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.86), and intimate kissing (adjusted odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.05). No vaccine safety concerns were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Among Australian adolescents, the 4CMenB vaccine had no discernible effect on the carriage of disease-causing meningococci, including group B. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03089086.).

Modelling the impact of COVID-19 and routine MenACWY vaccination on meningococcal carriage and disease in the UK.

Country-wide social distancing and suspension of non-emergency medical care due to the COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly have affected public health in multiple ways. While non-pharmaceutical interventions are expected to reduce the transmission of several infectious diseases, severe disruptions to healthcare systems have hampered diagnosis, treatment, and routine vaccination. We examined the effect of this disruption on meningococcal disease and vaccination in the UK. By adapting an existing mathematical model for meningococcal carriage, we addressed the following questions: What is the predicted impact of the existing MenACWY adolescent vaccination programme? What effect might social distancing and reduced vaccine uptake both have on future epidemiology? Will catch-up vaccination campaigns be necessary? Our model indicated that the MenACWY vaccine programme was generating substantial indirect protection and suppressing transmission by 2020. COVID-19 social distancing is expected to have accelerated this decline, causing significant long-lasting reductions in both carriage prevalence of meningococcal A/C/W/Y strains and incidence of invasive meningococcal disease. In all scenarios modelled, pandemic social mixing effects outweighed potential reductions in vaccine uptake, causing an overall decline in carriage prevalence from 2020 for at least 5 years. Model outputs show strong consistency with recently published case data for England.

B Part of It School Leaver Study: A Repeat Cross-Sectional Study to Assess the Impact of Increasing Coverage With Meningococcal B (4CMenB) Vaccine on Carriage of Neisseria meningitidis.

BACKGROUND: Recombinant protein-based vaccines targeting serogroup B meningococci protect against invasive disease but impacts on carriage are uncertain. This study assessed carriage prevalence of disease-associated meningococci in 2018-2020 as the proportion of vaccinated adolescents increased following introduction of a school-based 4CMenB immunization program. METHODS: Eligible participants who completed high school (aged 17-25) in South Australia in the previous year had an oropharyngeal swab taken and completed a risk factor questionnaire. Disease-associated meningococci (genogroups A, B, C, W, X, Y) were detected by meningococcal and genogroup-specific polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: The analysis included 4104 participants in 2018, 2690 in 2019, and 1338 in 2020. The proportion vaccinated with 4CMenB increased from 43% in 2018, to 78% in 2019, and 76% in 2020. Carriage prevalence of disease-associated meningococci in 2018 was 225/4104 (5.5%). There was little difference between carriage prevalence in 2019 (134/2690, 5.0%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], .64-1.05) and 2020 (68/1338, 5.1%; aOR, 0.82; 95% CI, .57-1.17) compared to 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Increased 4CMenB uptake in adolescents was not associated with decline in carriage of disease-associated meningococci. 4CMenB immunization programs should focus on direct (individual) protection for groups at greatest risk of disease. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03419533.

Every Country, Every Family: Time to Act for Group B Streptococcal Disease Worldwide.

The global burden of Group B Streptococcus (GBS) was estimated for 2015 prompting inclusion of GBS as a priority in the Global Meningitis Roadmap. New estimates for the year 2020 and a WHO report analysing the full value of GBS maternal vaccines has been launched to advance evidence based decision making for multiple stakeholders. In this first of a 10-article supplement, we discuss the following (1) gaps in evidence and action, (2) new evidence in this supplement, and (3) what actions can be taken now and key research gaps ahead. We call for investment in the research pipeline, notably description, development, and delivery, in order to accelerate progress and address the large burden of GBS for every family in every country.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Group B Streptococcal Disease in England (1998 - 2017): A Population-based Observational Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is the leading cause of sepsis and meningitis in infants <90 days. In this study, the burden of GBS disease and mortality in young infants in England was assessed. METHODS: Using linked hospitalization records from every National Health Service (NHS) hospital from April 1, 1998 to March 31, 2017, we calculated annual GBS incidence in infants aged <90 days and, using regression models, compared their perinatal factors, rates of hospital-recorded disease outcomes, and all-cause infant mortality rates with those of the general infant population. RESULTS: 15 429 infants aged <90 days had a hospital-recorded diagnosis of GBS, giving an average annual incidence of 1.28 per 1000 live births (95% CI 1.26-1.30) with no significant trend over time. GBS-attributable mortality declined significantly from 0.044 (95% CI .029-.065) per 1000 live births in 2001 to 0.014 (95% CI .010-.026) in 2017 (annual percentage change -6.6, 95% CI -9.1 to -4.0). Infants with GBS had higher relative rates of visual impairment (HR 7.0 95% CI 4.1-12.1), cerebral palsy (HR 9.3 95% CI 6.6-13.3), hydrocephalus (HR 17.3 95% CI 13.8-21.6), and necrotizing enterocolitis (HR 18.8 95% CI 16.7-21.2) compared with those without GBS. CONCLUSIONS: Annual rates of GBS disease in infants have not changed over 19 years. The reduction in mortality is likely multifactorial and due to widespread implementation of antibiotics in at-risk mothers and babies, as well as advances in managing acutely unwell infants. New methods for prevention, such as maternal vaccination, must be prioritized.

Effectiveness of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine against vaccine serotype pneumococcal pneumonia in adults: A case-control test-negative design study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) is available in the United Kingdom to adults aged 65 years or older and those in defined clinical risk groups. We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PPV23 against vaccine-type pneumococcal pneumonia in a cohort of adults hospitalised with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a case-control test-negative design, a secondary analysis of data was conducted from a prospective cohort study of adults (aged ≥16 years) with CAP hospitalised at 2 university teaching hospitals in Nottingham, England, from September 2013 to August 2018. The exposure of interest was PPV23 vaccination at any time point prior to the index admission. A case was defined as PPV23 serotype-specific pneumococcal pneumonia and a control as non-PPV23 serotype pneumococcal pneumonia or nonpneumococcal pneumonia. Pneumococcal serotypes were identified from urine samples using a multiplex immunoassay or from positive blood cultures. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive adjusted odds of case status between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals; VE estimates were calculated as (1 - odds ratio) × 100%. Of 2,357 patients, there were 717 PPV23 cases (48% vaccinated) and 1,640 controls (54.5% vaccinated). The adjusted VE (aVE) estimate against PPV23 serotype disease was 24% (95% CI 5%-40%, p = 0.02). Estimates were similar in analyses restricted to vaccine-eligible patients (n = 1,768, aVE 23%, 95% CI 1%-40%) and patients aged ≥65 years (n = 1,407, aVE 20%, 95% CI -5% to 40%), but not in patients aged ≥75 years (n = 905, aVE 5%, 95% CI -37% to 35%). The aVE estimate in relation to PPV23/non-13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) serotype pneumonia (n = 417 cases, 43.7% vaccinated) was 29% (95% CI 6%-46%). Key limitations of this study are that, due to high vaccination rates, there was a lack of power to reject the null hypothesis of no vaccine effect, and that the study was not large enough to allow robust subgroup analysis in the older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of an established national childhood PCV13 vaccination programme, PPV23 vaccination of clinical at-risk patient groups and adults aged ≥65 years provided moderate long-term protection against hospitalisation with PPV23 serotype pneumonia. These findings suggest that PPV23 vaccination may continue to have an important role in adult pneumococcal vaccine policy, including the possibility of revaccination of older adults.

Pneumococcal serotype trends, surveillance and risk factors in UK adult pneumonia, 2013-18.

BACKGROUND: Changes over the last 5 years (2013-18) in the serotypes implicated in adult pneumococcal pneumonia and the patient groups associated with vaccine-type disease are largely unknown. METHODS: We conducted a population-based prospective cohort study of adults admitted to two large university hospitals with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) between September 2013 and August 2018. Pneumococcal serotypes were identified using a novel 24-valent urinary monoclonal antibody assay and from blood cultures. Trends in incidence rates were compared against national invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) data. Persons at risk of vaccine-type pneumonia (pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV)13 and pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV)23) were determined from multivariate analyses. FINDINGS: Of 2934 adults hospitalised with CAP, 1075 (36.6%) had pneumococcal pneumonia. The annual incidence of pneumococcal pneumonia increased from 32.2 to 48.2 per 100 000 population (2013-18), predominantly due to increases in PCV13non7-serotype and non-vaccine type (NVT)-serotype pneumonia (annual incidence rate ratio 1.12, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.21 and 1.19, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.28, respectively). Incidence trends were broadly similar to IPD data. PCV13non7 (56.9% serotype 3) and PPV23non13 (44.1% serotype 8) serotypes were identified in 349 (32.5%) and 431 (40.1%) patients with pneumococcal pneumonia, respectively. PCV13-serotype pneumonia (dominated by serotype 3) was more likely in patients in the UK pneumococcal vaccination clinical risk group (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.73, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.28) while PPV23-serotype pneumonia was more likely in patients outside the clinical risk group (aOR 1.54, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.10). INTERPRETATION: The incidence of pneumococcal CAP is increasing, predominantly due to NVT serotypes and serotype 3. PPV23-serotype pneumonia is more likely in adults outside currently identified clinical risk groups.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Serogroup C Meningococcal Meningitis Spread in Niger and Nigeria and Implications for Epidemic Response.

BACKGROUND: After the re-emergence of serogroup C meningococcal meningitis (MM) in Nigeria and Niger, we aimed to re-evaluate the vaccination policy used to respond to outbreaks of MM in the African meningitis belt by investigating alternative strategies using a lower incidence threshold and information about neighboring districts. METHODS: We used data on suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases in Niger and Nigeria from 2013 to 2017. We calculated global and local Moran's I-statistics to identify spatial clustering of districts with high MM incidence. We used a Pinner model to estimate the impact of vaccination campaigns occurring between 2015 and 2017 and to evaluate the impact of 3 alternative district-level vaccination strategies, compared with that currently used. RESULTS: We found significant clustering of high incidence districts in every year, with local clusters around Tambuwal, Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, Niamey, Niger in 2016, and in Sokoto and Zamfara States in Nigeria in 2017.We estimate that the vaccination campaigns implemented in 2015, 2016, and 2017 prevented 6% of MM cases. Using the current strategy but with high coverage (85%) and timely distribution (4 weeks), these campaigns could have prevented 10% of cases. This strategy required the fewest doses of vaccine to prevent a case. None of the alternative strategies we evaluated were more efficient, but they would have prevented the occurrence of more cases overall. CONCLUSIONS: Although we observed significant spatial clustering in MM in Nigeria and Niger between 2013 and 2017, there is no strong evidence to support a change in methods for epidemic response in terms of lowering the intervention threshold or targeting neighboring districts for reactive vaccination.

Antibody Persistence at the Population Level 5 Years After Mass Vaccination With Meningococcal Serogroup A Conjugate Vaccine (PsA-TT) in Burkina Faso: Need for a Booster Campaign?

Background: In Burkina Faso, serogroup A meningococcal (NmA) conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT, MenAfriVac) was introduced through a mass campaign in children and adults in December 2010. Similar to a serological survey in 2011, we followed population-level antibody persistence for 5 years after the campaign and estimated time of return to previously-published pre-vaccination levels. Methods: We conducted 2 cross-sectional surveys in 2013 and early 2016, including representative samples (N = 600) of the general population of Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. Serum bactericidal antibody titers (rabbit complement) were measured against NmA reference strain F8236 (SBA-ref), NmA strain 3125 (SBA-3125), and NmA-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations. Results: During the 2016 survey, in different age groups between 6 and 29 years, the relative changes in geometric means compared to 2011 values were greater among younger age groups. They were between -87% and -43% for SBA-ref; -99% and -78% for SBA-3125; and -89% and -63% for IgG. In linear extrapolation of age-specific geometric means from 2013 to 2016, among children aged 1-4 years at the time of the PsA-TT campaign, a return to pre-vaccination levels should be expected after 12, 8, and 6 years, respectively, according to SBA-ref, SBA-3125, and IgG. Among older individuals, complete return to baseline is expected at the earliest after 11 years (SBA-ref and SBA-3125) or 9 years (IgG). Conclusions: Based on SBA-3125, a booster campaign after 8 years would be required to sustain direct immune protection for children aged 1-4 years during the PsA-TT campaign. Antibodies persisted longer in older age groups.

Narrative review of methods and findings of recent studies on the carriage of meningococci and other Neisseria species in the African Meningitis Belt.

OBJECTIVE: To review the findings of studies of pharyngeal carriage of Neisseria meningitidis and related species conducted in the African meningitis belt since a previous review published in 2007. METHODS: PubMed and Web of Science were searched in July 2018 using the terms 'meningococcal OR Neisseria meningitidis OR lactamica AND carriage AND Africa', with the search limited to papers published on or after 1st January 2007. We conducted a narrative review of these publications. RESULTS: One hundred and thirteen papers were identified using the search terms described above, 20 of which reported new data from surveys conducted in an African meningitis belt country. These papers described 40 surveys conducted before the introduction of the group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVacR ) during which 66 707 pharyngeal swabs were obtained. Carriage prevalence of N. meningitidis varied substantially by time and place, ranging from <1% to 24%. The mean pharyngeal carriage prevalence of N. meningitidis across all surveys was 4.5% [95% CI: 3.4%, 6.8%] and that of capsulated N. meningitidis was 2.8% [95% CI: 1.9%; 5.2%]. A study of households provided strong evidence for meningococcal transmission within and outside households. The introduction of MenAfriVac® led to marked reductions in carriage of the serogroup A meningococcus in Burkina Faso and Chad. CONCLUSIONS: Recent studies employing standardised methods confirm the findings of older studies that carriage of N. meningitidis in the African meningitis belt is highly variable over time and place, but generally occurs with a lower prevalence and shorter duration than reported from industrialised countries.

Risk factors for acquisition of meningococcal carriage in the African meningitis belt.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate potential risk factors for acquisition in seven countries of the meningitis belt. METHODS: Households were followed up every 2 weeks for 2 months, then monthly for a further 4 months. Pharyngeal swabs were collected from all available household members at each visit and questionnaires completed. Risks of acquisition over the whole study period and for each visit were analysed by a series of logistic regressions. RESULTS: Over the course of the study, acquisition was higher in: (i) 5-to 14-year olds, as compared with those 30 years or older (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.4-9.9); (ii) smokers (OR 3.6, 95% CI 0.98-13); and (iii) those exposed to wood smoke at home (OR 2.6 95% CI 1.3-5.6). The risk of acquisition from one visit to the next was higher in those reporting a sore throat during the dry season (OR 3.7, 95% CI 2.0-6.7) and lower in those reporting antibiotic use (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.03-0.56). CONCLUSIONS: Acquisition of meningococcal carriage peaked in school age children. Recent symptoms of sore throat during the dry season, but not during the rainy season, were associated with a higher risk of acquisition. Upper respiratory tract infections may be an important driver of epidemics in the meningitis belt.

OBJECTIF: Investiguer les facteurs de risque potentiels d'acquisition dans sept pays de la ceinture de la méningite. MÉTHODES: Des ménages ont été suivis toutes les deux semaines pendant deux mois, puis tous les mois pendant quatre mois. Des prélèvements pharyngés sur écouvillons ont été collectés auprès de tous les membres disponibles du ménage à chaque visite et des questionnaires ont été remplis. Les risques d'acquisition sur l'ensemble de la période d'étude et pour chaque visite ont été analysés par une série de régressions logistiques. RÉSULTATS: Au cours de l'étude, l'acquisition a été plus élevée chez: (i) les 5-14 ans, par rapport à ceux âgés de 30 ans ou plus (OR = 3,6; IC95%: 1,4-9,9); (ii) les fumeurs (OR = 3,6; IC95%: 0,98-13); et (iii) les personnes exposées à la fumée de bois à la maison (OR = 2,6; IC95%: 1,3-5,6). Le risque d'acquisition d'une visite à l'autre était plus élevé chez les personnes signalant un mal de gorge pendant la saison sèche (OR = 3,7; IC95%: 2,0-6,7) et plus faible chez celles signalant une utilisation d'antibiotique (OR = 0,17; IC95%: 0,03-0,56). CONCLUSIONS: L'acquisition du portage du méningocoque a culminé chez les enfants d'âge scolaire. Les symptômes récents de maux de gorge pendant la saison sèche, mais pas pendant la saison des pluies, étaient associés à un risque d'acquisition plus élevé. Les infections des voies respiratoires supérieures pourraient être un facteur important d'épidémies dans la ceinture de la méningite.

The cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of a conjugate vaccine for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis has dramatically reduced disease in the African meningitis belt. In this context, important questions remain about the performance of different vaccine policies that target remaining serogroups. Here, we estimate the health impact and cost associated with several alternative vaccination policies in Burkina Faso. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed and calibrated a mathematical model of meningococcal transmission to project the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted and costs associated with the current Base policy (serogroup A conjugate vaccination at 9 months, as part of the Expanded Program on Immunization [EPI], plus district-specific reactive vaccination campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide [PMP] vaccine in response to outbreaks) and three alternative policies: (1) Base Prime: novel polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccine replaces the serogroup A conjugate in EPI and is also used in reactive campaigns; (2) Prevention 1: PMC used in EPI and in a nationwide catch-up campaign for 1-18-year-olds; and (3) Prevention 2: Prevention 1, except the nationwide campaign includes individuals up to 29 years old. Over a 30-year simulation period, Prevention 2 would avert 78% of the meningococcal cases (95% prediction interval: 63%-90%) expected under the Base policy if serogroup A is not replaced by remaining serogroups after elimination, and would avert 87% (77%-93%) of meningococcal cases if complete strain replacement occurs. Compared to the Base policy and at the PMC vaccine price of US$4 per dose, strategies that use PMC vaccine (i.e., Base Prime and Preventions 1 and 2) are expected to be cost saving if strain replacement occurs, and would cost US$51 (-US$236, US$490), US$188 (-US$97, US$626), and US$246 (-US$53, US$703) per DALY averted, respectively, if strain replacement does not occur. An important potential limitation of our study is the simplifying assumption that all circulating meningococcal serogroups can be aggregated into a single group; while this assumption is critical for model tractability, it would compromise the insights derived from our model if the effectiveness of the vaccine differs markedly between serogroups or if there are complex between-serogroup interactions that influence the frequency and magnitude of future meningitis epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that a vaccination strategy that includes a catch-up nationwide immunization campaign in young adults with a PMC vaccine and the addition of this new vaccine into EPI is cost-effective and would avert a substantial portion of meningococcal cases expected under the current World Health Organization-recommended strategy of reactive vaccination. This analysis is limited to Burkina Faso and assumes that polyvalent vaccines offer equal protection against all meningococcal serogroups; further studies are needed to evaluate the robustness of this assumption and applicability for other countries in the meningitis belt.

Neurodevelopmental Impairment in Children After Group B Streptococcal Disease Worldwide: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Survivors of infant group B streptococcal (GBS) disease are at risk of neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI), a burden not previously systematically quantified. This is the 10th of 11 articles estimating the burden of GBS disease. Here we aimed to estimate NDI in survivors of infant GBS disease. METHODS: We conducted systematic literature reviews (PubMed/Medline, Embase, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature [LILACS], World Health Organization Library Information System [WHOLIS], and Scopus) and sought unpublished data on the risk of NDI after invasive GBS disease in infants <90 days of age. We did meta-analyses to derive pooled estimates of the percentage of infants with NDI following GBS meningitis. RESULTS: We identified 6127 studies, of which 18 met eligibility criteria, all from middle- or high-income contexts. All 18 studies followed up survivors of GBS meningitis; only 5 of these studies also followed up survivors of GBS sepsis and were too few to pool in a meta-analysis. Of meningitis survivors, 32% (95% CI, 25%-38%) had NDI at 18 months of follow-up, including 18% (95% CI, 13%-22%) with moderate to severe NDI. CONCLUSIONS: GBS meningitis is an important risk factor for moderate to severe NDI, affecting around 1 in 5 survivors. However, data are limited, and we were unable to estimate NDI after GBS sepsis. Comparability of studies is difficult due to methodological differences including variability in timing of clinical reviews and assessment tools. Follow-up of clinical cases and standardization of methods are essential to fully quantify the total burden of NDI associated with GBS disease, and inform program priorities.

Hierarchical genomic analysis of carried and invasive serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis during the 2011 epidemic in Chad.

BACKGROUND: Serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) was the cause of the 2011 meningitis epidemics in Chad. This bacterium, often carried asymptomatically, is considered to be an "accidental pathogen"; however, the transition from carriage to disease phenotype remains poorly understood. This study examined the role genetic diversity might play in this transition by comparing genomes from geographically and temporally matched invasive and carried NmA isolates. RESULTS: All 23 NmA isolates belonged to the ST-5 clonal complex (cc5). Ribosomal MLST comparison with other publically available NmA:cc5 showed that isolates were closely related, although those from Chad formed two distinct branches and did not cluster with other NmA, based on their MLST profile, geographical and temporal location. Whole genome MLST (wgMLST) comparison identified 242 variable genes among all Chadian isolates and clustered them into three distinct phylogenetic groups (Clusters 1, 2, and 3): no systematic clustering by disease or carriage source was observed. There was a significant difference (p = 0.0070) between the mean age of the individuals from which isolates from Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 were obtained, irrespective of whether the person was a case or a carrier. CONCLUSIONS: Whole genome sequencing provided high-resolution characterization of the genetic diversity of these closely related NmA isolates. The invasive meningococcal isolates obtained during the epidemic were not homogeneous; rather, a variety of closely related but distinct clones were circulating in the human population with some clones preferentially colonizing specific age groups, reflecting a potential age-related niche adaptation. Systematic genetic differences were not identified between carriage and disease isolates consistent with invasive meningococcal disease being a multi-factorial event resulting from changes in host-pathogen interactions along with the bacterium.

Alternative Molecular Methods for Improved Detection of Meningococcal Carriage and Measurement of Bacterial Density.

Conventional methods for detecting pharyngeal carriage of Neisseria meningitidis are complex. There is a need for simpler methods with improved performance. We have investigated two alternative approaches. Three pharyngeal swabs were collected from 999 pupils aged 10 to 18 years in The Gambia. Carriage of N. meningitidis was investigated by using three different methods: (i) plating on Thayer-Martin selective medium and testing by conventional microbiological methods followed by PCR testing; (ii) seeding in Todd-Hewitt broth (THB) and, after culture overnight, testing by PCR; and (iii) compression of the swab on filter paper and, after DNA concentration, testing by PCR. PCR after culture in THB was more than twice as sensitive as conventional methods in detecting N. meningitidis (13.2% versus 5.7%; P < 0.0001). PCR after DNA extraction from filter paper had a sensitivity similar to that of conventional methods (4.9% versus 5.7%; P = 0.33). Capsular genogroups detected by broth culture were genogroups W (21 isolates), B (12 isolates), Y (8 isolates), E (3 isolates), and X (2 isolates), and 68 meningococci had the capsule-null intergenic region. The distributions of genogroups and of capsule-null organisms were similar with each of the three methods. The carriage density in samples extracted from filter paper ranged from 1 to 25,000 DNA copies. PCR of broth cultures grown overnight doubled the yield of N. meningitidis carriage isolates compared with conventional methods. This approach could improve the efficiency of carriage studies. Collection on filter paper followed by quantitative PCR could be useful for density measurement and for carriage studies in areas with limited resources.