Utilization of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation among patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia in California: a population-based linked dataset study.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) often requires allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) for cure, but historically alloHCT has been strikingly underutilized. Reasons for this remain uncertain at the population level. We examined alloHCT utilization over time and explored associations between demographic/healthcare factors and use of alloHCT by age group (AYA 15-39y, adult 40-64y, older adult 65-79y) using a linked dataset merging the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, California Cancer Registry, and California Patient Discharge Database. Eligibility included patients newly diagnosed with AML in California between 2001-2016 who received induction therapy and had no prior HCT. Multivariable Fine-Gray regression analyses were fitted separately across age groups. Among 7,925 patients with AML, alloHCT utilization increased over time across all age groups; however, in the most recent time period studied (2011-2016), utilization within 2 years of diagnosis remained lowest in older adults (13%) relative to adults (41%) and AYAs (49%). Factors statistically significantly associated with lower alloHCT utilization: (1) AYAs: female sex, lower neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES), uninsured or Indian Health Services (IHS) coverage; (2) adults: older age, male sex, non-Hispanic Black or Asian race and ethnicity, unmarried, lower nSES, uninsured or covered by Medicaid, Medicare, or IHS, higher comorbidity, and living 100+ miles from a transplant center; and (3) older adults: older age, Asian race, and unmarried. In conclusion, using a population-based linked dataset, we demonstrate that utilization of alloHCT among older patients newly diagnosed with AML remains low in California, and factors associated with utilization vary by age group.

Testicular cancer mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean: trend analysis from 1997 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: In the last decades, an increasing incidence of testicular cancer has been observed in several countries worldwide. Although mortality rates have been variable in many countries, little information is available from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Therefore, we examined mortality trends of testicular cancer in the last two decades. METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of testicular cancer per 100,000 men-years were estimated using the World Health Organization mortality database from 1997 to 2019. We examined the mortality trends and computed annual percent change (APC) for all ages and the following age groups, 15-29, 30-44, 15-44, and ≥ 45 years. RESULTS: Ten countries had mortality rates greater than 0.43 per 100,000 men, with the highest rates for Chile, Mexico, and Argentina. Significant increases in mortality rates were observed in Argentina, Brazil Colombia, and Mexico in all ages, and < 45 years, while Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru reported significant downward trends in males aged ≥ 45 years. Only Chile showed significant decreases for all ages and age groups studied. CONCLUSION: Mortality by testicular cancer increased among LAC countries in males of all ages and across age groups. A reduction in mortality rates was observed only in Chilean males of all ages and in men ≥ 45 years in several countries. Strengthening of early detection among symptomatic males may decrease the mortality by this neoplasm.

Disparities in breast cancer mortality among Latin American women: trends and predictions for 2030.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is among the leading cause of cancer-related mortality among Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) women, but a comprehensive and updated analysis of mortality trends is lacking. The objective of this study was to determine the breast cancer mortality rates between 1997 and 2017 for LAC countries and predict mortality until 2030. METHODS: We retrieved breast cancer deaths across 17 LAC countries from the World Health Organization mortality database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 women-years were estimated. Mortality trends were evaluated with Joinpoint regression analyses by country and age group (all ages, < 50 years, and ≥ 50 years). By 2030, we predict number of deaths, mortality rates, changes in population structure and size, and the risk of death from breast cancer. RESULTS: Argentina, Uruguay, and Venezuela reported the highest mortality rates throughout the study period. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua reported the largest increases (from 2.4 to 2.8% annually), whereas Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay reported downward trends (from - 1.0 to - 1.6% annually). In women < 50y, six countries presented downward trends and five countries showed increasing trends. In women ≥ 50y, three countries had decreased trends and ten showed increased trends. In 2030, increases in mortality are expected in the LAC region, mainly in Guatemala (+ 63.0%), Nicaragua (+ 47.3), El Salvador (+ 46.2%), Ecuador (+ 38.5%) and Venezuela (+ 29.9%). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest considerable differences in breast cancer mortality across LAC countries by age group. To achieve the 2030 sustainable developmental goals, LAC countries should implement public health strategies to reduce mortality by breast cancer.

Cervical cancer mortality among young women in Latin America and the Caribbean: trend analysis from 1997 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer continues to show a high burden among young women worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Limited data is available describing cervical cancer mortality among young women in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The purpose of this study was to examine the mortality trends of cervical cancer among young women in LAC and predict mortality rates to 2030. METHODS: Deaths from cervical cancer were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 women-years were estimated in women aged 20-44 years using the world standard population for 16 countries (and territories) in LAC from 1997 to 2017. We estimated the average mortality rates for the last 4 years (2014-2017). Joinpoint regression models were used to identify significant changes in mortality trends. Nordpred method was used for the prediction of the mortality rates to 2030. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2017, Paraguay and Venezuela had the highest mortality rates of cervical cancer, whereas Puerto Rico had the lowest rates. Overall, most of the LAC countries showed downward trends of cervical cancer mortality over the entire period. Significant decreases were observed in Chile (Average annual percent change [AAPC]: - 2.4%), Colombia (AAPC: - 2.0%), Cuba (AAPC: - 3.6%), El Salvador (AAPC: - 3.1%), Mexico (AAPC: - 3.9%), Nicaragua (AAPC: - 1.7%), Panama (AAPC: - 1.7%), and Peru (AAPC: - 2.2%). In contrast, Brazil (AAPC: + 0.8%) and Paraguay (AAPC: + 3.7%) showed significant upward trends. By 2030, mortality rates are not predicted to further decrease in some LAC countries, including Argentina, Paraguay, and Venezuela. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality trends of cervical cancer among young women have large variability in LAC countries. Cervical cancer screening programs have a high priority for the region. Primary and secondary prevention in the community are necessary to accelerate a reduction of cervical cancer mortality by 2030.

Cervical cancer mortality in Peru: regional trend analysis from 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related death among Latin American women. Peru has the sixth highest mortality rate for cervical cancer in the region with regional variations. We aimed to determine overall and regional cervical cancer mortality rates and trends in Peru between 2008 and 2017. METHODS: We performed an ecological study on the number of deaths by cervical cancer in Peru. Deaths were extracted from the Peruvian Ministry of Health mortality database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were estimated per 100,000 women-years using the world standard Segi population. We computed mortality trends using the Joinpoint regression program, estimating the annual percent change (APC). For spatial analysis, GeoDA software was used. RESULTS: Peru showed downward trends in the last decade (from 11.62 in 2008 to 9.69 in 2017 (APC = - 2.2, 95% CI: - 4.3, - 0.1, p < 0.05). According to regional-specific analysis, the highest ASMR was in the rainforest region, although this declined from 34.16 in 2008 to 17.98 in 2017 (APC = - 4.3, 95% CI: - 7.2, - 1.3, p < 0.01). Concerning spatial analysis and clustering, the mortality rates from 2008 to 2017 showed a positive spatial autocorrelation and significant clustering (Moran's I: 0.35, p < 0.001) predominantly in the neighboring North-East departments (Loreto, Ucayali, and San Martin). CONCLUSIONS: Although mortality trends in the entire population are decreasing, mortality rates remain very high, mainly in the rainforest region. Our results encourage a need for further development and improvement of the current health care delivery system in Peru.

Breast cancer mortality trends in Peruvian women.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignancy in Latin American women, but with a wide variability with respect to their mortality. This study aims to estimate the mortality rates from BC in Peruvian women and to assess mortality trends over 15 years. METHODS: We calculated BC age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) per 100,000 women-years using the world standard SEGI population. We estimated joinpoint regression models for BC in Peru and its geographical areas. The spatial analysis was performed using the Moran's I statistic. RESULTS: In a 15-year period, Peru had a mortality rate of 9.97 per 100,000 women-years. The coastal region had the highest mortality rate (12.15 per 100,000 women-years), followed by the highlands region (4.71 per 100,000 women-years). In 2003, the highest ASMR for BC were in the provinces of Lima, Arequipa, and La Libertad (above 8.0 per 100,000 women-years), whereas in 2017, the highest ASMR were in Tumbes, Callao, and Moquegua (above 13.0 per women-years). The mortality trend for BC has been declining in the coastal region since 2005 (APC = - 1.35, p < 0.05), whereas the highlands region experienced an upward trend throughout the study period (APC = 4.26, p < 0.05). The rainforest region had a stable trend. Spatial analysis showed a Local Indicator of Spatial Association of 0.26 (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: We found regional differences in the mortality trends over 15 years. Although the coastal region experienced a downward trend, the highlands had an upward mortality trend in the entire study period. It is necessary to implement tailored public health interventions to reduce BC mortality in Peru.

Lymph node ratio as best prognostic factor in triple-negative breast cancer patients with residual disease after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Although lymph node status (ypN) is one of the most important prognostic factors of survival, the lymph node ratio (LNR) has emerged as an equitable factor. We aimed to compare the prognostic value of both ypN and LNR in patients with residual triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) after neo-adjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). This was a retrospective cohort study of patients treated in a tertiary care center during the period 2000-2014. We stratified the population based on LNR (≤0.20, 0.20-0.65, and >0.65) and ypN (N1, N2, and N3) status. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated with Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank + test. We further compared patient mortality and disease recurrence using multivariate Cox regression analysis. We evaluated 169 patients with a median follow-up of 87 months. At 2 years of follow-up, patients with low-risk LNR compared to those with moderate and high risk had a higher PFS (54% vs 31% vs 18%, respectively; P < .001) and OS (74% vs 64% vs 45%, respectively; P < .001). Moreover, ypN1 patients compared to ypN2 and ypN3 showed similar results in PFS (53% vs 35% vs 19%, respectively; P = .001) and OS (73% vs 69% vs 43%, respectively; P < .001). Compared to the low-risk population, patients with moderate (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.50; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41-8.71) and high risk (HR: 6.90; 95% CI: 2.29-20.77) had a worse PFS. Regarding OS, moderate-risk (HR: 2.85; 95% CI: 1.10-7.38) and high-risk patients (HR: 6.48; 95% CI: 2.13-19.76) showed considerably worse outcomes. On the other hand, ypN staging was not associated with PFS or OS in the multivariate analysis. The LNR is a better prognostic factor of survival than ypN. The LNR should be considered in the stratification of risk after NAC in patients with TNBC.

Leukemia mortality in children from Latin America: trends and predictions to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Reports suggest that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have not reduced leukemia mortality compared to high-income countries. However, updated trends remain largely unknown in the region. Given that leukemia is the leading cause of cancer-related death in LAC children, we evaluated mortality trends in children (0-14y) from 15 LAC countries for the period 2000-2017 and predicted mortality to 2030. METHODS: We retrieved cancer mortality data using the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Mortality rates (standardized to the world standard SEGI population) were analyzed for 15 LAC countries. We evaluated the average mortality rates for the last 5 years (2013-2017). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate leukemia mortality trends and provide an estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions until 2030. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2017, the highest mortality rates were reported in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Peru. Upward mortality trends were reported in Nicaragua (EAPC by 2.9% in boys, and EAPC by 2.0% in girls), and Peru (EAPC by 1.4% in both sexes). Puerto Rico experienced large declines in mortality among both boys (EAPC by - 9.7%), and girls (EAPC by - 6.0%). Leukemia mortality will increase in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay by 2030. CONCLUSION: Leukemia mortality is predicted to increase in some LAC countries by 2030. Interventions to prevent this outcome should be tailor to reduce the socioeconomic inequalities and ensure universal healthcare coverage.

The effect of early-stage public health policies in the transmission of COVID-19 for South American countries.

OBJECTIVES: The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R0 ) and time-varying (Rt ) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries. METHODS: Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R0 values during the first two weeks of the outbreak and Rt values after 90 days were estimated. RESULTS: Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R0 ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas Rt after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R0 and Rt values may be related to the testing capacity of each country. CONCLUSION: R0 in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced Rt over time in each country, albeit to different levels.

OBJETIVOS: Estimar el número de reproducción básico (R0 ) y el número de reproducción efectivo (Rt ) de la COVID-19 y contrastarlos con las medidas de salud pública implementadas en diez países de América del Sur. MÉTODOS: Los datos se obtuvieron del Centro Europeo para la Prevención y el Control de las Enfermedades. Se estimó el R0 de cada país durante las dos primeras semanas del brote y el Rt después de 90 días. RESULTADOS: Los países utilizaron una combinación de aislamiento, distanciamiento físico, cuarentena y medidas de contención en toda la comunidad para detener la propagación de la COVID-19 en diferentes momentos. El R0 osciló entre 1,52 (IC95%: 1,13-1,99) en Venezuela y 3,83 (IC95%: 3,04-4,75) en Chile, mientras que el Rt después de 90 días varió entre 0,71 (intervalo de credibilidad 95%: 0,39-1,05) en Uruguay y 1,20 (intervalo de credibilidad 95%: 1,19-1,20) en Brasil. Los diferentes valores de R0 y Rt pueden estar relacionados con la capacidad de llevar a cabo pruebas de detección viral de cada país. CONCLUSIÓN: Los valores del R0 en la fase inicial del brote variaron entre los países sudamericanos. Las medidas de salud pública adoptadas en el período inicial de la pandemia parecen haber reducido el Rt con el tiempo en cada país, aunque en niveles diferentes.