County-Level Variation in Hepatitis C Virus Mortality and Trends in the United States, 2005-2017.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since 2013, the national hepatitis C virus (HCV) death rate has steadily declined, but this decline has not been quantified or described on a local level. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We estimated county-level HCV death rates and assessed trends in HCV mortality from 2005 to 2013 and from 2013 to 2017. We used mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and used a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized HCV death rates from 2005 through 2017 for 3,115 U.S. counties. Additionally, we estimated county-level, age-standardized rates for persons <40 and 40+ years of age. We used log-linear regression models to estimate the average annual percent change in HCV mortality during periods of interest and compared county-level trends with national trends. Nationally, the age-adjusted HCV death rate peaked in 2013 at 5.20 HCV deaths per 100,000 persons (95% credible interval [CI], 5.12, 5.26) before decreasing to 4.34 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 4.28, 4.41) in 2017 (average annual percent change = -4.69; 95% CI, -5.01, -4.33). County-level rates revealed heterogeneity in HCV mortality (2017 median rate = 3.6; interdecile range, 2.19, 6.77), with the highest rates being concentrated in the West, Southwest, Appalachia, and northern Florida. Between 2013 and 2017, HCV mortality decreased in 80.0% (n = 2,274) of all U.S. counties with a reliable trend estimate, with 25.8% (n = 803) of all counties experiencing a decrease larger than the national decline. CONCLUSIONS: Although many counties have experienced a shift in HCV mortality trends since 2013, the magnitude and composition of that shift have varied by place. These data provide a better understanding of geographic differences in HCV mortality and can be used by local jurisdictions to evaluate HCV mortality in their areas relative to surrounding areas and the nation.

Isotopic signatures of methane emissions from tropical fires, agriculture and wetlands: the MOYA and ZWAMPS flights.

We report methane isotopologue data from aircraft and ground measurements in Africa and South America. Aircraft campaigns sampled strong methane fluxes over tropical papyrus wetlands in the Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins, herbaceous wetlands in Bolivian southern Amazonia, and over fires in African woodland, cropland and savannah grassland. Measured methane δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures were in the range -55 to -49‰ for emissions from equatorial Nile wetlands and agricultural areas, but widely -60 ± 1‰ from Upper Congo and Zambezi wetlands. Very similar δ13CCH4 signatures were measured over the Amazonian wetlands of NE Bolivia (around -59‰) and the overall δ13CCH4 signature from outer tropical wetlands in the southern Upper Congo and Upper Amazon drainage plotted together was -59 ± 2‰. These results were more negative than expected. For African cattle, δ13CCH4 values were around -60 to -50‰. Isotopic ratios in methane emitted by tropical fires depended on the C3 : C4 ratio of the biomass fuel. In smoke from tropical C3 dry forest fires in Senegal, δ13CCH4 values were around -28‰. By contrast, African C4 tropical grass fire δ13CCH4 values were -16 to -12‰. Methane from urban landfills in Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have frequent waste fires, had δ13CCH4 around -37 to -36‰. These new isotopic values help improve isotopic constraints on global methane budget models because atmospheric δ13CCH4 values predicted by global atmospheric models are highly sensitive to the δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures applied to tropical wetland emissions. Field and aircraft campaigns also observed widespread regional smoke pollution over Africa, in both the wet and dry seasons, and large urban pollution plumes. The work highlights the need to understand tropical greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the goals of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and to help reduce air pollution over wide regions of Africa. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

The relationship between outpatient service use and emergency department visits among people treated for mental and substance use disorders: analysis of population-based administrative data in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Research findings on the association between outpatient service use and emergency department (ED) visits for mental and substance use disorders (MSUDs) are mixed and may differ by disorder type. METHODS: We used population-based linked administrative data in British Columbia, Canada to examine associations between outpatient primary care and psychiatry service use and ED visits among people ages 15 and older, comparing across people treated for three disorder categories: common mental disorders (MDs) (depressive, anxiety, and/or post-traumatic stress disorders), serious MDs (schizophrenia spectrum and/or bipolar disorders), and substance use disorders (SUDs) in 2016/7. We used hurdle models to examine the association between outpatient service use and odds of any ED visit for MSUDs as well count of ED visits for MSUDs, stratified by cohort in 2017/8. RESULTS: Having had one or more MSUD-related primary care visit was associated with lower odds of any ED visit among people treated for common MDs and SUDs but not people treated for serious MDs. Continuity of primary care was associated with slightly lower ED use in all cohorts. One or more outpatient psychiatrist visits was associated with lower odds of ED visits among people treated for serious MDs and SUDs, but not among people with common MDs. CONCLUSION: Findings highlight the importance of expanded access to outpatient specialist mental health services, particularly for people with serious MDs and SUDs, and collaborative models that can support primary care providers treating people with MSUDs.

A Dynamic Visualization Tool of Local Trends in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality in the United States.

Efforts in the US to prevent and treat cardiovascular disease (CVD) contributed to large decreases in death rates for decades; however, in the last decade, progress has stalled, and in many counties, CVD death rates have increased. Because of these increases, there is heightened urgency to disseminate high-quality data on the temporal trends in CVD mortality. The Local Trends in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality Dashboard is an online, interactive visualization of US county-level death rates and trends for several CVD outcomes across stratifications of age, race and ethnicity, and sex. This powerful visualization tool generates national maps of death rates and trends, state maps of death rates and trends, county-level line plots of annual death rates, and bar charts of percentage changes. County-level death rates and trends were estimated by applying a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to data obtained from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics and US Census bridged-race intercensal estimates for the years 1999 through 2019. The Local Trends in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality Dashboard makes it easy for public health practitioners, health care providers, and community leaders to monitor county-level spatiotemporal trends in CVD mortality by age group, race and ethnicity, and sex and provides key information for identifying and addressing local health inequities in CVD mortality trends.

Unequal Local Progress Towards Healthy People 2020 Objectives for Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease Mortality.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Healthy People establishes objectives to monitor the nation's health. Healthy People 2020 included objectives to reduce national stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality by 20% (to 34.8 and 103.4 deaths per 100 000, respectively). Documenting the proportion and geographic distribution of counties meeting neither the Healthy People 2020 target nor an equivalent proportional reduction can help identify high-priority geographic areas for future intervention. METHODS: County-level mortality data for stroke (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes I60-I69) and CHD (I20-I25) and bridged-race population estimates were used. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated age-standardized county-level death rates in 2007 and 2017 which were used to calculate and map the proportion and 95% credible interval of counties achieving neither the national Healthy People 2020 target nor a 20% reduction in mortality. RESULTS: In 2017, 45.8% of counties (credible interval, 42.9-48.3) met neither metric for stroke mortality. These counties had a median stroke death rate of 42.2 deaths per 100 000 in 2017, representing a median 12.8% decline. For CHD mortality, 26.1% (credible interval, 25.0-27.8) of counties met neither metric. These counties had a median CHD death rate of 127.1 deaths per 100 000 in 2017, representing a 10.2% decline. For both outcomes, counties achieving neither metric were not limited to counties with traditionally high stroke and CHD death rates. CONCLUSIONS: Recent declines in stroke and CHD mortality have not been equal across US counties. Focusing solely on high mortality counties may miss opportunities in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease and in learning more about factors leading to successful reductions in mortality.

Sources of non-methane hydrocarbons in surface air in Delhi, India.

Rapid economic growth and development have exacerbated air quality problems across India, driven by many poorly understood pollution sources and understanding their relative importance remains critical to characterising the key drivers of air pollution. A comprehensive suite of measurements of 90 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) (C2-C14), including 12 speciated monoterpenes and higher molecular weight monoaromatics, were made at an urban site in Old Delhi during the pre-monsoon (28-May to 05-Jun 2018) and post-monsoon (11 to 27-Oct 2018) seasons using dual-channel gas chromatography (DC-GC-FID) and two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC-FID). Significantly higher mixing ratios of NMHCs were measured during the post-monsoon campaign, with a mean night-time enhancement of around 6. Like with NOx and CO, strong diurnal profiles were observed for all NMHCs, except isoprene, with very high NMHC mixing ratios between 35-1485 ppbv. The sum of mixing ratios of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) routinely exceeded 100 ppbv at night during the post-monsoon period, with a maximum measured mixing ratio of monoaromatic species of 370 ppbv. The mixing ratio of highly reactive monoterpenes peaked at around 6 ppbv in the post-monsoon campaign and correlated strongly with anthropogenic NMHCs, suggesting a strong non-biogenic source in Delhi. A detailed source apportionment study was conducted which included regression analysis to CO, acetylene and other NMHCs, hierarchical cluster analysis, EPA UNMIX 6.0, principal component analysis/absolute principal component scores (PCA/APCS) and comparison with NMHC ratios (benzene/toluene and i-/n-pentane) in ambient samples to liquid and solid fuels. These analyses suggested the primary source of anthropogenic NMHCs in Delhi was from traffic emissions (petrol and diesel), with average mixing ratio contributions from Unmix and PCA/APCS models of 38% from petrol, 14% from diesel and 32% from liquified petroleum gas (LPG) with a smaller contribution (16%) from solid fuel combustion. Detailed consideration of the underlying meteorology during the campaigns showed that the extreme night-time mixing ratios of NMHCs during the post-monsoon campaign were the result of emissions into a very shallow and stagnant boundary layer. The results of this study suggest that despite widespread open burning in India, traffic-related petrol and diesel emissions remain the key drivers of gas-phase urban air pollution in Delhi.

A retrospective records study of patterns in mental health and criminal justice service use by people found not criminally responsible on account of mental disorder.

BACKGROUND: While the presence or absence of previous healthcare and criminal justice system (CJS) contacts in the histories of mentally ill offenders has been well-studied, the frequency of these contacts and when they occur in the period leading up to an index criminal event has received less research attention. AIMS: To explore patterns of healthcare and CJS use in the year prior to a criminal act leading to a Not Criminally Responsible on Account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD) finding in Canada. METHODS: In this 3-year retrospective records study, the case files of all patients newly admitted to the British Columbia forensic psychiatric system after a finding of NCRMD between 1st July 2012 and 31st July 2015 were reviewed. Data were extracted on healthcare and CJS use for the 12 months before the act leading to the NCRMD finding. Time-based descriptive statistics and two-step cluster analysis were used to investigate service use patterns. RESULTS: Among 94 eligible patients, only four had no service contacts in the year leading up to the index event, leaving 90 in the cohort for further analysis. On average, these 90 patients had seven contacts with health or criminal justice services in the year prior to the index offence. Cluster analysis revealed a high healthcare pathway group who had had many healthcare and few CJS contacts; a limited service user group who had had few contacts of any kind and a heavy service user group who had had a high volume of contacts with both types of service providers. CONCLUSIONS: The different patterns of patient contact prior to the index event imply that each practitioner-type has distinct and temporally relevant opportunities to provide preventative interventions to their patients or user groups.

Primary Indicators to Systematically Monitor COVID-19 Mitigation and Response - Kentucky, May 19-July 15, 2020.

State and local health departments in the United States are using various indicators to identify differences in rates of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe COVID-19 outcomes, including hospitalizations and deaths. To inform mitigation efforts, on May 19, 2020, the Kentucky Department for Public Health (KDPH) implemented a reporting system to monitor five indicators of state-level COVID-19 status to assess the ability to safely reopen: 1) composite syndromic surveillance data, 2) the number of new COVID-19 cases,* 3) the number of COVID-19-associated deaths,† 4) health care capacity data, and 5) public health capacity for contact tracing (contact tracing capacity). Using standardized methods, KDPH compiles an indicator monitoring report (IMR) to provide daily analysis of these five indicators, which are combined with publicly available data into a user-friendly composite status that KDPH and local policy makers use to assess state-level COVID-19 hazard status. During May 19-July 15, 2020, Kentucky reported 12,742 COVID-19 cases, and 299 COVID-19-related deaths (1). The mean composite state-level hazard status during May 19-July 15 was 2.5 (fair to moderate). IMR review led to county-level hotspot identification (identification of counties meeting criteria for temporal increases in number of cases and incidence) and facilitated collaboration among KDPH and local authorities on decisions regarding mitigation efforts. Kentucky's IMR might easily be adopted by state and local health departments in other jurisdictions to guide decision-making for COVID-19 mitigation, response, and reopening.

Mental health training, attitudes toward support, and screening positive for mental disorders.

Public Safety Personnel (PSP; e.g. correctional workers, dispatchers, firefighters, paramedics, police) are frequently exposed to potentially traumatic events (PTEs). Several mental health training program categories (e.g. critical incident stress management (CISM), debriefing, peer support, psychoeducation, mental health first aid, Road to Mental Readiness [R2MR]) exist as efforts to minimize the impact of exposures, often using cognitive behavioral therapy model content, but with limited effectiveness research. The current study assessed PSP perceptions of access to professional (i.e. physicians, psychologists, psychiatrists, employee assistance programs, chaplains) and non-professional (i.e. spouse, friends, colleagues, leadership) support, and associations between training and mental health. Participants included 4,020 currently serving PSP participants. Data were analyzed using cross-tabulations and logistic regressions. Most PSP reported access to professional and non-professional support; nevertheless, most would first access a spouse (74%) and many would never, or only as a last resort, access professional support (43-60%) or PSP leaders (67%). Participation in any mental health training category was associated with lower (p < .01) rates for some, but not all, mental disorders, with no robust differences across categories. Revisions to training programs may improve willingness to access professional support; in the interim, training and support for PSP spouses and leaders may also be beneficial.

Stagnating National Declines in Stroke Mortality Mask Widespread County-Level Increases, 2010-2016.

Background and Purpose- Recent national and state-level trends show a stalling or reversal of previously declining stroke death rates. These national trends may mask local geographic variation and changes in stroke mortality. We assessed county-level trends in stroke mortality among adults aged 35 to 64 and ≥65 years. Methods- We used data from National Vital Statistics Systems and a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized annual stroke death rates for 2010 through 2016 among middle-aged adults (35-64 years) and older adults (≥65 years) in US counties. We used log-linear regression models to estimate average annual and total percent change in stroke mortality during the period. Results- Nationally, the annual percent change in stroke mortality from 2010 to 2016 was -0.7% (95% CI, -4.2% to 3.0%) among middle-aged adults and -3.5% (95% CI, -10.7% to 4.3%) among older adults, resulting in 2016 rates of 15.0 per 100 000 and 259.8 per 100 000, respectively. Increasing county-level stroke mortality was more prevalent among middle-aged adults (56.6% of counties) compared with among older adults (26.1% of counties). About half (48.3%) of middle-aged adults, representing 60.2 million individuals, lived in counties in which stroke mortality increased. Conclusions- County-level increases in stroke mortality clarify previously reported national and state-level trends, particularly among middle-aged adults. Roughly 3×as many counties experienced increases in stroke death rates for middle-aged adults compared with older adults. This highlights a need to address stroke prevention and treatment for middle-aged adults while continuing efforts to reduce stroke mortality among the more highly burdened older adults. Efforts to reverse these troubling local trends will likely require joint public health and clinical efforts to develop innovative and integrated approaches for stroke prevention and care, with a focus on community-level characteristics that support stroke-free living for all.

Strong Temperature Dependence for Light-Duty Diesel Vehicle NO x Emissions.

Diesel-powered road vehicles are important sources for nitrogen oxide (NO x) emissions, and the European passenger fleet is highly dieselised, which has resulted in many European roadside environments being noncompliant with legal air quality standards for nitrogen dioxide (NO2). On the basis of vehicle emission remote sensing data for 300000 light-duty vehicles across the United Kingdom, light-duty diesel NO x emissions were found to be highly dependent on ambient temperature with low temperatures resulting in higher NO x emissions, i.e., a "low temperature NO x emission penalty" was identified. This feature was not observed for gasoline-powered vehicles. Older Euro 3 to 5 diesel vehicles emitted NO x similarly, but vehicles compliant with the latest Euro 6 emission standard emitted less NO x than older vehicles and demonstrated less of an ambient temperature dependence. This ambient temperature dependence is overlooked in current emission inventories but is of importance from an air quality perspective. Owing to Europe's climate, a predicted average of 38% more NO x emissions have burdened Europe when compared to temperatures encountered in laboratory test cycles. However, owing to the progressive elimination of vehicles demonstrating the most severe low temperature NO x penalty, light-duty diesel NO x emissions are likely to decrease more rapidly throughout Europe than currently thought.

The Rate Stabilizing Tool: Generating Stable Local-Level Measures of Chronic Disease.

Accurate and precise estimates of local-level epidemiologic measures are critical to informing policy and program decisions, but they often require advanced statistical knowledge, programming/coding skills, and extensive computing power. In response, we developed the Rate Stabilizing Tool (RST), an ArcGIS-based tool that enables users to input their own record-level data to generate more reliable age-standardized measures of chronic disease (eg, prevalence rates, mortality rates) or other population health outcomes at the county or census tract levels. The RST uses 2 forms of empirical Bayesian modeling (nonspatial and spatial) to estimate age-standardized rates and 95% credible intervals for user-specified geographic units. The RST also provides indicators of the reliability of point estimates. In addition to reviewing the RST's statistical techniques, we present results from a simulation study that illustrates the key benefit of smoothing. We demonstrate the dramatic reduction in root mean-squared error (rMSE), indicating a better compromise between accuracy and stability for both smoothing approaches relative to the unsmoothed estimates. Finally, we provide an example of the RST's use. This example uses heart disease mortality data for North Carolina census tracts to map the RST output, including reliability of estimates, and demonstrates a subsequent statistical test.

Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States: 1973 to 2010.

BACKGROUND: Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties. CONCLUSIONS: The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality.

Vital Signs: Recent Trends in Stroke Death Rates - United States, 2000-2015.

INTRODUCTION: The prominent decline in U.S. stroke death rates observed for more than 4 decades has slowed in recent years. CDC examined trends and patterns in recent stroke death rates among U.S. adults aged ≥35 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity, state, and census region. METHODS: Trends in the rates of stroke as the underlying cause of death during 2000-2015 were analyzed using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint software was used to identify trends in stroke death rates, and the excess number of stroke deaths resulting from unfavorable changes in trends was estimated. RESULTS: Among adults aged ≥35 years, age-standardized stroke death rates declined 38%, from 118.4 per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 73.3 per 100,000 persons in 2015. The annual percent change (APC) in stroke death rates changed from 2000 to 2015, from a 3.4% decrease per year during 2000-2003, to a 6.6% decrease per year during 2003-2006, a 3.1% decrease per year during 2006-2013, and a 2.5% (nonsignificant) increase per year during 2013-2015. The last trend segment indicated a reversal from a decrease to a statistically significant increase among Hispanics (APC = 5.8%) and among persons in the South Census Region (APC = 4.2%). Declines in stroke death rates failed to continue in 38 states, and during 2013-2015, an estimated 32,593 excess stroke deaths might not have occurred if the previous rate of decline could have been sustained. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: Prior declines in stroke death rates have not continued in recent years, and substantial variations exist in timing and magnitude of change by demographic and geographic characteristics. These findings suggest the importance of strategically identifying opportunities for prevention and intervening in vulnerable populations, especially because effective and underused interventions to prevent stroke incidence and death are known to exist.

VOC emission rates over London and South East England obtained by airborne eddy covariance.

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) originate from a variety of sources, and play an intrinsic role in influencing air quality. Some VOCs, including benzene, are carcinogens and so directly affect human health, while others, such as isoprene, are very reactive in the atmosphere and play an important role in the formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone and particles. Here we report spatially-resolved measurements of the surface-to-atmosphere fluxes of VOCs across London and SE England made in 2013 and 2014. High-frequency 3-D wind velocities and VOC volume mixing ratios (made by proton transfer reaction - mass spectrometry) were obtained from a low-flying aircraft and used to calculate fluxes using the technique of eddy covariance. A footprint model was then used to quantify the flux contribution from the ground surface at spatial resolution of 100 m, averaged to 1 km. Measured fluxes of benzene over Greater London showed positive agreement with the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, with the highest fluxes originating from central London. Comparison of MTBE and toluene fluxes suggest that petroleum evaporation is an important emission source of toluene in central London. Outside London, increased isoprene emissions were observed over wooded areas, at rates greater than those predicted by a UK regional application of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme model (EMEP4UK). This work demonstrates the applicability of the airborne eddy covariance method to the determination of anthropogenic and biogenic VOC fluxes and the possibility of validating emission inventories through measurements.

Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory.

Completeness and Reliability of Location Data Collected on the Web: Assessing the Quality of Self-Reported Locations in an Internet Sample of Men Who Have Sex With Men.

BACKGROUND: Place is critical to our understanding of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. However, within the scientific literature, place is almost always represented by residential location, suggesting a fundamental assumption of equivalency between neighborhood of residence, place of risk, and place of prevention. However, the locations of behaviors among MSM show significant spatial variation, and theory has posited the importance of nonresidential contextual exposures. This focus on residential locations has been at least partially necessitated by the difficulties in collecting detailed geolocated data required to explore nonresidential locations. OBJECTIVE: Using a Web-based map tool to collect locations, which may be relevant to the daily lives and health behaviors of MSM, this study examines the completeness and reliability of the collected data. METHODS: MSM were recruited on the Web and completed a Web-based survey. Within this survey, men used a map tool embedded within a question to indicate their homes and multiple nonresidential locations, including those representing work, sex, socialization, physician, and others. We assessed data quality by examining data completeness and reliability. We used logistic regression to identify demographic, contextual, and location-specific predictors of answering all eligible map questions and answering specific map questions. We assessed data reliability by comparing selected locations with other participant-reported data. RESULTS: Of 247 men completing the survey, 167 (67.6%) answered the entire set of eligible map questions. Most participants (>80%) answered specific map questions, with sex locations being the least reported (80.6%). Participants with no college education were less likely than those with a college education to answer all map questions (prevalence ratio, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8). Participants who reported sex at their partner's home were less likely to indicate the location of that sex (prevalence ratio, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7-1.0). Overall, 83% of participants placed their home's location within the boundaries of their reported residential ZIP code. Of locations having a specific text description, the median distance between the participant-selected location and the location determined using the specific text description was 0.29 miles (25th and 75th percentiles, 0.06-0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Using this Web-based map tool, this Web-based sample of MSM was generally willing and able to provide accurate data regarding both home and nonresidential locations. This tool provides a mechanism to collect data that can be used in more nuanced studies of place and sexual risk and preventive behaviors of MSM.

An application of propensity score weighting to quantify the causal effect of rectal sexually transmitted infections on incident HIV among men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: Exploring causal associations in HIV research requires careful consideration of numerous epidemiologic limitations. First, a primary cause of HIV, unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), is time-varying and, if it is also associated with an exposure of interest, may be on a confounding path. Second, HIV is a rare outcome, even in high-risk populations. Finally, for most causal, non-preventive exposures, a randomized trial is impossible. In order to address these limitations and provide a practical illustration of efficient statistical control via propensity-score weighting, we examine the causal association between rectal STI and HIV acquisition in the InvolveMENt study, a cohort of Atlanta-area men who have sex with men (MSM). We hypothesized that, after controlling for potentially confounding behavioral and demographic factors, the significant STI-HIV association would attenuate, but yield an estimate of the causal effect. METHODS: The exposure of interest was incident rectal gonorrhea or chlamydia infection; the outcome was incident HIV infection. To adjust for behavioral confounding, while accounting for limited HIV infections, we used an inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) Cox proportional hazards (PH) model for incident HIV. Weights were derived from propensity score modeling of the probability of incident rectal STI as a function of potential confounders, including UAI in the interval of rectal STI acquisition/censoring. RESULTS: Of 556 HIV-negative MSM at baseline, 552 (99%) men were included in this analysis. 79 men were diagnosed with an incident rectal STI and 26 with HIV. 6 HIV-infected men were previously diagnosed with a rectal STI. In unadjusted analysis, incident rectal STI was significantly associated with subsequent incident HIV (HR (95%CI): 3.6 (1.4-9.2)). In the final weighted and adjusted model, the association was attenuated and more precise (HR (95% CI): 2.7 (1.2-6.4)). CONCLUSIONS: We found that, controlling for time-varying risk behaviors and time-invariant demographic factors, diagnosis with HIV was significantly associated with prior diagnosis of rectal CT or GC. Our analysis lends support to the causal effect of incident rectal STI on HIV diagnosis and provides a framework for similar analyses of HIV incidence.