Mathematical Modeling of the Evolution of Absenteeism in a University Hospital over 12 Years.

Increased absenteeism in health care institutions is a major problem, both economically and health related. Our objectives were to understand the general evolution of absenteeism in a university hospital from 2007 to 2019 and to analyze the professional and sociodemographic factors influencing this issue. An initial exploratory analysis was performed to understand the factors that most influence absences. The data were then transformed into time series to analyze the evolution of absences over time. We performed a temporal principal components analysis (PCA) of the absence proportions to group the factors. We then created profiles with contributions from each variable. We could then observe the curves of these profiles globally but also compare the profiles by period. Finally, a predictive analysis was performed on the data using a VAR model. Over the 13 years of follow-up, there were 1,729,097 absences for 14,443 different workers (73.8% women; 74.6% caregivers). Overall, the number of absences increased logarithmically. The variables contributing most to the typical profile of the highest proportions of absences were having a youngest child between 4 and 10 years old (6.44% of contribution), being aged between 40 and 50 years old (5.47%), being aged between 30 and 40 years old (5.32%), working in the administrative field (4.88%), being tenured (4.87%), being a parent (4.85%), being in a coupled relationship (4.69%), having a child over the age of 11 (4.36%), and being separated (4.29%). The forecasts predict a stagnation in the proportion of absences for the profiles of the most absent factors over the next 5 years including annual peaks. During this study, we looked at the sociodemographic and occupational factors that led to high levels of absenteeism. Being aware of these factors allows health companies to act to reduce absenteeism, which represents real financial and public health threats for hospitals.

Statistical Analysis of Absenteeism in a University Hospital Center between 2007 and 2019.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the evolution of compressible absenteeism in a hospital center and identify the professional and sociodemographic factors that influence absenteeism. METHOD: All hospital center employees have been included over a period of twelve consecutive years (2007 to 2019). Compressible absences and occupational and sociodemographic factors were analyzed using Occupational Health data. Since the distribution of the data did not follow a normal distribution, the number of days of absence was presented as a median (interquartile range (IQR): 1st quartile-3rd quartile), and comparisons were made using non-parametric tests followed by a negative binomial model with zero inflation (ZINB). RESULTS: A total of 16,413 employees were included, for a total of 2,828,599 days of absence, of which 2,081,553 were compressible absences (73.6% of total absences). Overall, 42% of employees have at least one absence per year. Absent employees had a median of 15 (IQR 5-53) days of absence per year, with an increase of a factor of 1.9 (CI95 1.8-2.1) between 2007 and 2019 (p < 0.001). Paramedical staff were most at risk of absence (p < 0.001 vs. all other occupational categories). Between 2007 and 2019, the number of days of absence was multiplied by 2.4 (CI95 1.8-3.1) for administrative staff, 2.1 (CI95 1.9-2.3) for tenured, 1.7 (CI95 1.5-2.0) for those living more than 12 km from the workplace, 1.8 (CI95 1.6-2.0) among women, 2.1 (CI95 1.8-2.6) among those over 50 years of age, 2.4 (CI95 1.8-3.0) among "separated" workers, and 2.0 (CI95 1.8-2.2) among those with at least one child. CONCLUSIONS: Paramedical personnel are most at risk of absenteeism. Meanwhile, absenteeism is increasing steadily, and overall, the increase is major for administrative staff. The profile of an employee at risk of absenteeism is a titular employee, living at distance from work, probably female, over 50 years old, separated, and with children. Identifying professionals at risk of absenteeism is essential to propose adapted and personalized preventive measures.