Effects of Cooking with Liquefied Petroleum Gas or Biomass on Stunting in Infants.

BACKGROUND: Household air pollution is associated with stunted growth in infants. Whether the replacement of biomass fuel (e.g., wood, dung, or agricultural crop waste) with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking can reduce the risk of stunting is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a randomized trial involving 3200 pregnant women 18 to 34 years of age in four low- and middle-income countries. Women at 9 to less than 20 weeks' gestation were randomly assigned to use a free LPG cookstove with continuous free fuel delivery for 18 months (intervention group) or to continue using a biomass cookstove (control group). The length of each infant was measured at 12 months of age, and personal exposures to fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 µm) were monitored starting at pregnancy and continuing until the infants were 1 year of age. The primary outcome for which data are presented in the current report - stunting (defined as a length-for-age z score that was more than two standard deviations below the median of a growth standard) at 12 months of age - was one of four primary outcomes of the trial. Intention-to-treat analyses were performed to estimate the relative risk of stunting. RESULTS: Adherence to the intervention was high, and the intervention resulted in lower prenatal and postnatal 24-hour personal exposures to fine particulate matter than the control (mean prenatal exposure, 35.0 µg per cubic meter vs. 103.3 µg per cubic meter; mean postnatal exposure, 37.9 µg per cubic meter vs. 109.2 µg per cubic meter). Among 3061 live births, 1171 (76.2%) of the 1536 infants born to women in the intervention group and 1186 (77.8%) of the 1525 infants born to women in the control group had a valid length measurement at 12 months of age. Stunting occurred in 321 of the 1171 infants included in the analysis (27.4%) of the infants born to women in the intervention group and in 299 of the 1186 infants included in the analysis (25.2%) of those born to women in the control group (relative risk, 1.10; 98.75% confidence interval, 0.94 to 1.29; P = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: An intervention strategy starting in pregnancy and aimed at mitigating household air pollution by replacing biomass fuel with LPG for cooking did not reduce the risk of stunting in infants. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; HAPIN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02944682.).

Liquefied Petroleum Gas or Biomass Cooking and Severe Infant Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to household air pollution is a risk factor for severe pneumonia. The effect of replacing biomass cookstoves with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cookstoves on the incidence of severe infant pneumonia is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, controlled trial involving pregnant women 18 to 34 years of age and between 9 to less than 20 weeks' gestation in India, Guatemala, Peru, and Rwanda from May 2018 through September 2021. The women were assigned to cook with unvented LPG stoves and fuel (intervention group) or to continue cooking with biomass fuel (control group). In each trial group, we monitored adherence to the use of the assigned cookstove and measured 24-hour personal exposure to fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 µm [PM2.5]) in the women and their offspring. The trial had four primary outcomes; the primary outcome for which data are presented in the current report was severe pneumonia in the first year of life, as identified through facility surveillance or on verbal autopsy. RESULTS: Among 3200 pregnant women who had undergone randomization, 3195 remained eligible and gave birth to 3061 infants (1536 in the intervention group and 1525 in the control group). High uptake of the intervention led to a reduction in personal exposure to PM2.5 among the children, with a median exposure of 24.2 µg per cubic meter (interquartile range, 17.8 to 36.4) in the intervention group and 66.0 µg per cubic meter (interquartile range, 35.2 to 132.0) in the control group. A total of 175 episodes of severe pneumonia were identified during the first year of life, with an incidence of 5.67 cases per 100 child-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.55 to 7.07) in the intervention group and 6.06 cases per 100 child-years (95% CI, 4.81 to 7.62) in the control group (incidence rate ratio, 0.96; 98.75% CI, 0.64 to 1.44; P = 0.81). No severe adverse events were reported to be associated with the intervention, as determined by the trial investigators. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of severe pneumonia among infants did not differ significantly between those whose mothers were assigned to cook with LPG stoves and fuel and those whose mothers were assigned to continue cooking with biomass stoves. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; HAPIN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02944682.).

Liquefied Petroleum Gas or Biomass for Cooking and Effects on Birth Weight.

BACKGROUND: Exposure during pregnancy to household air pollution caused by the burning of solid biomass fuel is associated with adverse health outcomes, including low birth weight. Whether the replacement of a biomass cookstove with a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cookstove would result in an increase in birth weight is unclear. METHODS: We performed a randomized, controlled trial involving pregnant women (18 to <35 years of age and at 9 to <20 weeks' gestation as confirmed on ultrasonography) in Guatemala, India, Peru, and Rwanda. The women were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to use a free LPG cookstove and fuel (intervention group) or to continue using a biomass cookstove (control group). Birth weight, one of four prespecified primary outcomes, was the primary outcome for this report; data for the other three outcomes are not yet available. Birth weight was measured within 24 hours after birth. In addition, 24-hour personal exposures to fine particulate matter (particles with a diameter of ≤2.5 µm [PM2.5]), black carbon, and carbon monoxide were measured at baseline and twice during pregnancy. RESULTS: A total of 3200 women underwent randomization; 1593 were assigned to the intervention group, and 1607 to the control group. Uptake of the intervention was nearly complete, with traditional biomass cookstoves being used at a median rate of less than 1 day per month. After randomization, the median 24-hour personal exposure to fine particulate matter was 23.9 µg per cubic meter in the intervention group and 70.7 µg per cubic meter in the control group. Among 3061 live births, a valid birth weight was available for 94.9% of the infants born to women in the intervention group and for 92.7% of infants born to those in the control group. The mean (±SD) birth weight was 2921±474.3 g in the intervention group and 2898±467.9 g in the control group, for an adjusted mean difference of 19.6 g (95% confidence interval, -10.1 to 49.2). CONCLUSIONS: The birth weight of infants did not differ significantly between those born to women who used LPG cookstoves and those born to women who used biomass cookstoves. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; HAPIN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02944682.).

A Design and Analytical Strategy for Monitoring Disease Positivity and Biomarker Levels in Accessible Closed Populations.

In this paper, we advocate and expand upon a previously described monitoring strategy for efficient and robust estimation of disease prevalence and case numbers within closed and enumerated populations such as schools, workplaces, or retirement communities. The proposed design relies largely on voluntary testing, which is notoriously biased (e.g., in the case of coronavirus disease 2019) due to nonrepresentative sampling. The approach yields unbiased and comparatively precise estimates with no assumptions about factors underlying selection of individuals for voluntary testing, building on the strength of what can be a small random sampling component. This component enables the use of a recently proposed "anchor stream" estimator, a well-calibrated alternative to classical capture-recapture (CRC) estimators based on 2 data streams. We show that this estimator is equivalent to a direct standardization based on "capture," that is, selection (or not) by the voluntary testing program, made possible by means of a key parameter identified by design. This equivalency simultaneously allows for novel 2-stream CRC-like estimation of general mean values (e.g., means of continuous variables like antibody levels or biomarkers). For inference, we propose adaptations of Bayesian credible intervals when estimating case counts and bootstrapping when estimating means of continuous variables. We use simulations to demonstrate significant precision benefits relative to random sampling alone.

The Population-level Effect of Adjuvant Therapies on Breast Cancer Recurrence: Application of the Trend-in-Trend Design.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer has an average 10-year relative survival reaching 84%. This favorable survival is due, in part, to the introduction of biomarker-guided therapies. We estimated the population-level effect of the introduction of two adjuvant therapies-tamoxifen and trastuzumab-on recurrence using the trend-in-trend pharmacoepidemiologic study design. METHODS: We ascertained data on women diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer who were registered in the Danish Breast Cancer Group clinical database. We used the trend-in-trend design to estimate the population-level effect of the introduction of (1) tamoxifen for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer in 1982, (2) tamoxifen for premenopausal women diagnosed with ER-positive breast cancer in 1999, and (3) trastuzumab for women <60 years diagnosed with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive breast cancer in 2007. RESULTS: For the population-level effect of the introduction of tamoxifen among premenopausal women diagnosed with ER-positive breast cancer in 1999, the risk of recurrence decreased by nearly one-half (OR = 0.52), consistent with evidence from clinical trials; however, the estimate was imprecise (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.25, 1.85). We observed an imprecise association between tamoxifen use and recurrence from the time it was introduced in 1982 (OR = 1.24 95% CI = 0.46, 5.11), inconsistent with prior knowledge from clinical trials. For the introduction of trastuzumab in 2007, the estimate was also consistent with trial evidence, though imprecise (OR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.21, 22.4). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated how novel pharmacoepidemiologic analytic designs can be used to evaluate the routine clinical care and effectiveness of therapeutic advancements in a population-based setting while considering some limitations of the approach.

Fusing an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics with a statistical reconstruction of spatio-temporal abundance patterns.

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the vector of a number of medically-important viruses, including dengue virus, yellow fever virus, chikungunya virus, and Zika virus, and as such vector control is a key approach to managing the diseases they cause. Understanding the impact of vector control on these diseases is aided by first understanding its impact on Ae. aegypti population dynamics. A number of detail-rich models have been developed to couple the dynamics of the immature and adult stages of Ae. aegypti. The numerous assumptions of these models enable them to realistically characterize impacts of mosquito control, but they also constrain the ability of such models to reproduce empirical patterns that do not conform to the models' behavior. In contrast, statistical models afford sufficient flexibility to extract nuanced signals from noisy data, yet they have limited ability to make predictions about impacts of mosquito control on disease caused by pathogens that the mosquitoes transmit without extensive data on mosquitoes and disease. Here, we demonstrate how the differing strengths of mechanistic realism and statistical flexibility can be fused into a single model. Our analysis utilizes data from 176,352 household-level Ae. aegypti aspirator collections conducted during 1999-2011 in Iquitos, Peru. The key step in our approach is to calibrate a single parameter of the model to spatio-temporal abundance patterns predicted by a generalized additive model (GAM). In effect, this calibrated parameter absorbs residual variation in the abundance time-series not captured by other features of the mechanistic model. We then used this calibrated parameter and the literature-derived parameters in the agent-based model to explore Ae. aegypti population dynamics and the impact of insecticide spraying to kill adult mosquitoes. The baseline abundance predicted by the agent-based model closely matched that predicted by the GAM. Following spraying, the agent-based model predicted that mosquito abundance rebounds within about two months, commensurate with recent experimental data from Iquitos. Our approach was able to accurately reproduce abundance patterns in Iquitos and produce a realistic response to adulticide spraying, while retaining sufficient flexibility to be applied across a range of settings.

Disparities in Unmet Health Care Needs Among US Children During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted pediatric health care in the United States, and this disruption layered on existing barriers to health care. We sought to characterize disparities in unmet pediatric health care needs during this period. METHODS: We analyzed data from Wave 1 (October through November 2020) and Wave 2 (March through May 2021) of the COVID Experiences Survey, a national longitudinal survey delivered online or via telephone to parents of children aged 5 through 12 years using a probability-based sample representative of the US household population. We examined 3 indicators of unmet pediatric health care needs as outcomes: forgone care and forgone well-child visits during fall 2020 through spring 2021, and no well-child visit in the past year as of spring 2021. Multivariate models examined relationships of child-, parent-, household-, and county-level characteristics with these indicators, adjusting for child's age, sex, and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: On the basis of parent report, 16.3% of children aged 5 through 12 years had forgone care, 10.9% had forgone well-child visits, and 30.1% had no well-child visit in the past year. Adjusted analyses identified disparities in indicators of pediatric health care access by characteristics at the level of the child (eg, race/ethnicity, existing health conditions, mode of school instruction), parent (eg, childcare challenges), household (eg, income), and county (eg, urban-rural classification, availability of primary care physicians). Both child and parent experiences of racism were also associated with specific indicators of unmet health care needs. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the need for continued research examining unmet health care needs and for continued efforts to optimize the clinical experience to be culturally inclusive.

Heat Exposure among Adult Women in Rural Tamil Nadu, India.

Exposure to heat is associated with a substantial burden of disease and is an emerging issue in the context of climate change. Heat is of particular concern in India, which is one of the world's hottest countries and also most populous, where relatively little is known about personal heat exposure, particularly in rural areas. Here, we leverage data collected as part of a randomized controlled trial to describe personal temperature exposures of adult women (40-79 years of age) in rural Tamil Nadu. We also characterize measurement error in heat exposure assessment by comparing personal exposure measurements to the nearest ambient monitoring stations and to commonly used modeled temperature data products. We find that temperatures differ across individuals in the same area on the same day, sometimes by more than 5 °C within the same hour, and that some individuals experience sharp increases in heat exposure in the early morning or evening, potentially a result of cooking with solid fuels. We find somewhat stronger correlations between the personal exposure measurements and the modeled products than with ambient monitors. We did not find evidence of systematic biases, which indicates that adjusting for discrepancies between different exposure measurement methods is not straightforward.

Factors Determining Black Carbon Exposures among Pregnant Women Enrolled in the HAPIN Trial.

Residential biomass burning is an important source of black carbon (BC) exposure among rural communities in low- and middle-income countries. We collected 7165 personal BC samples and individual/household level information from 3103 pregnant women enrolled in the Household Air Pollution Intervention Network trial. Women in the intervention arm received free liquefied petroleum gas stoves and fuel throughout pregnancy; women in the control arm continued the use of biomass stoves. Median (IQR) postintervention BC exposures were 9.6 µg/m3 (5.2-14.0) for controls and 2.8 µg/m3 (1.6-4.8) for the intervention group. Using mixed models, we characterized predictors of BC exposure and assessed how exposure contrasts differed between arms by select predictors. Primary stove type was the strongest predictor (R2 = 0.42); the models including kerosene use, kitchen location, education, occupation, or stove use hours also provided additional explanatory power from the base model adjusted only for the study site. Our full, trial-wide, model explained 48% of the variation in BC exposures. We found evidence that the BC exposure contrast between arms differed by study site, adherence to the assigned study stove, and whether the participant cooked. Our findings highlight factors that may be addressed before and during studies to implement more impactful cookstove intervention trials.

The US Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Surveillance Environment: An Ecological Analysis of the Relationship of Testing Adequacy in the Context of Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing is a critical component of public health surveillance and pandemic control, especially among the unvaccinated, as the nation resumes in-person activities. This study examined the relationships between COVID-19 testing rates, testing positivity rates, and vaccination coverage across US counties. METHODS: Data from the Health and Human Services' Community Profile Report and 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates were used. A total of 3114 US counties were analyzed from January through September 2021. Associations among the testing metrics and vaccination coverage were estimated using multiple linear regression models with fixed effects for states and adjusted for county demographics. COVID-19 testing rates (polymerase chain reaction [PCR] testing per 1000), testing positivity (percentage of all PCR tests that were positive), and vaccination coverage (percentage of county population that was fully vaccinated) were determined. RESULTS: Nationally, median daily COVID-19 testing rates were highest in January and September (35.5 and 34.6 tests per capita, respectively) and lowest in July (13.2 tests per capita). Monthly testing positivity was between 0.03 and 0.12 percentage points lower for each percentage points of vaccination coverage, and monthly testing rates were between 0.08 and 0.22 tests per capita higher for each percentage point of vaccination coverage. CONCLUSIONS: The quantity of COVID-19 testing was associated with vaccination coverage, implying counties having populations with relatively lower protection against the virus are conducting less testing than counties with relatively more protection. Monitoring testing practices in relation to vaccination coverage may be used to monitor the sufficiency of COVID-19 testing based on population susceptibility to the virus.

Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccine Efficacy Against Different Rotavirus Genotypes: A Pooled Analysis of Phase II and III Trial Data.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine performance appears worse in countries with high rotavirus genotype diversity. Evidence suggests diminished vaccine efficacy (VE) against G2P[4], which is heterotypic with existing monovalent rotavirus vaccine formulations. Most studies assessing genotype-specific VE have been underpowered and inconclusive. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from 10 Phase II and III clinical trials of rotavirus vaccine containing G1 and P[8] antigens (RV1) conducted between 2000 and 2012. We estimated VE against both any-severity and severe (Vesikari score ≥11) rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) using binomial and multinomial logistic regression models for non-specific VE against any RVGE, genotype-specific VE, and RV1-typic VE against genotypes homotypic, partially heterotypic, or fully heterotypic with RV1 antigens. We adjusted models for concomitant oral poliovirus and RV1 vaccination and the country's designated child mortality stratum. RESULTS: Analysis included 87 644 infants from 22 countries in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and Asia. For VE against severe RVGE, non-specific VE was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 87-94%). Genotype-specific VE ranged from 96% (95% CI: 89-98%) against G1P[8] to 71% (43-85%) against G2P[4]. RV1-typic VE was 92% (95% CI: 84-96%) against partially heterotypic genotypes but 83% (67-91%) against fully heterotypic genotypes. For VE against any-severity RVGE, non-specific VE was 82% (95% CI: 75-87%). Genotype-specific VE ranged from 94% (95% CI: 86-97%) against G1P[8] to 63% (41-77%) against G2P[4]. RV1-typic VE was 83% (95% CI: 72-90%) against partially heterotypic genotypes but 63% (40-77%) against fully heterotypic genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: RV1 VE is comparatively diminished against fully heterotypic genotypes including G2P[4].

GIS-Based Assessments of Neighborhood Food Environments and Chronic Conditions: An Overview of Methodologies.

The industrial revolution and urbanization fundamentally restructured populations' living circumstances, often with poor impacts on health. As an example, unhealthy food establishments may concentrate in some neighborhoods and, mediated by social and commercial drivers, increase local health risks. To understand the connections between neighborhood food environments and public health, researchers often use geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial statistics to analyze place-based evidence, but such tools require careful application and interpretation. In this article, we summarize the factors shaping neighborhood health in relation to local food environments and outline the use of GIS methodologies to assess associations between the two. We provide an overview of available data sources, analytical approaches, and their strengths and weaknesses. We postulate next steps in GIS integration with forecasting, prediction, and simulation measures to frame implications for local health policies. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 45 is April 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

A Dynamic Spatial Factor Model to Describe the Opioid Syndemic in Ohio.

BACKGROUND: The opioid epidemic has been ongoing for over 20 years in the United States. As opioid misuse has shifted increasingly toward injection of illicitly produced opioids, it has been associated with HIV and hepatitis C transmission. These epidemics interact to form the opioid syndemic. METHODS: We obtain annual county-level counts of opioid overdose deaths, treatment admissions for opioid misuse, and newly diagnosed cases of acute and chronic hepatitis C and newly diagnosed HIV from 2014 to 2019. Aligned with the conceptual framework of syndemics, we develop a dynamic spatial factor model to describe the opioid syndemic for counties in Ohio and estimate the complex synergies between each of the epidemics. RESULTS: We estimate three latent factors characterizing variation of the syndemic across space and time. The first factor reflects overall burden and is greatest in southern Ohio. The second factor describes harms and is greatest in urban counties. The third factor highlights counties with higher than expected hepatitis C rates and lower than expected HIV rates, which suggests elevated localized risk for future HIV outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Through the estimation of dynamic spatial factors, we are able to estimate the complex dependencies and characterize the synergy across outcomes that underlie the syndemic. The latent factors summarize shared variation across multiple spatial time series and provide new insights into the relationships between the epidemics within the syndemic. Our framework provides a coherent approach for synthesizing complex interactions and estimating underlying sources of variation that can be applied to other syndemics.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Two-stream Capture-Recapture Methods in Disease Surveillance.

Capture-recapture methods are widely applied in estimating the number ( ) of prevalent or cumulatively incident cases in disease surveillance. Here, we focus the bulk of our attention on the common case in which there are 2 data streams. We propose a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis framework grounded in multinomial distribution-based maximum likelihood, hinging on a key dependence parameter that is typically nonidentifiable but is epidemiologically interpretable. Focusing on the epidemiologically meaningful parameter unlocks appealing data visualizations for sensitivity analysis and provides an intuitively accessible framework for uncertainty analysis designed to leverage the practicing epidemiologist's understanding of the implementation of the surveillance streams as the basis for assumptions driving estimation of . By illustrating the proposed sensitivity analysis using publicly available HIV surveillance data, we emphasize both the need to admit the lack of information in the observed data and the appeal of incorporating expert opinion about the key dependence parameter. The proposed uncertainty analysis is a simulation-based approach designed to more realistically acknowledge variability in the estimated associated with uncertainty in an expert's opinion about the nonidentifiable parameter, together with the statistical uncertainty. We demonstrate how such an approach can also facilitate an appealing general interval estimation procedure to accompany capture-recapture methods. Simulation studies illustrate the reliable performance of the proposed approach for quantifying uncertainties in estimating in various contexts. Finally, we demonstrate how the recommended paradigm has the potential to be directly extended for application to data from >2 surveillance streams.

Comparing and linking machine learning and semi-mechanistic models for the predictability of endemic measles dynamics.

Measles is one the best-documented and most-mechanistically-studied non-linear infectious disease dynamical systems. However, systematic investigation into the comparative performance of traditional mechanistic models and machine learning approaches in forecasting the transmission dynamics of this pathogen are still rare. Here, we compare one of the most widely used semi-mechanistic models for measles (TSIR) with a commonly used machine learning approach (LASSO), comparing performance and limits in predicting short to long term outbreak trajectories and seasonality for both regular and less regular measles outbreaks in England and Wales (E&W) and the United States. First, our results indicate that the proposed LASSO model can efficiently use data from multiple major cities and achieve similar short-to-medium term forecasting performance to semi-mechanistic models for E&W epidemics. Second, interestingly, the LASSO model also captures annual to biennial bifurcation of measles epidemics in E&W caused by susceptible response to the late 1940s baby boom. LASSO may also outperform TSIR for predicting less-regular dynamics such as those observed in major cities in US between 1932-45. Although both approaches capture short-term forecasts, accuracy suffers for both methods as we attempt longer-term predictions in highly irregular, post-vaccination outbreaks in E&W. Finally, we illustrate that the LASSO model can both qualitatively and quantitatively reconstruct mechanistic assumptions, notably susceptible dynamics, in the TSIR model. Our results characterize the limits of predictability of infectious disease dynamics for strongly immunizing pathogens with both mechanistic and machine learning models, and identify connections between these two approaches.

Optimizing laboratory-based surveillance networks for monitoring multi-genotype or multi-serotype infections.

With the aid of laboratory typing techniques, infectious disease surveillance networks have the opportunity to obtain powerful information on the emergence, circulation, and evolution of multiple genotypes, serotypes or other subtypes of pathogens, informing understanding of transmission dynamics and strategies for prevention and control. The volume of typing performed on clinical isolates is typically limited by its ability to inform clinical care, cost and logistical constraints, especially in comparison with the capacity to monitor clinical reports of disease occurrence, which remains the most widespread form of public health surveillance. Viewing clinical disease reports as arising from a latent mixture of pathogen subtypes, laboratory typing of a subset of clinical cases can provide inference on the proportion of clinical cases attributable to each subtype (i.e., the mixture components). Optimizing protocols for the selection of isolates for typing by weighting specific subpopulations, locations, time periods, or case characteristics (e.g., disease severity), may improve inference of the frequency and distribution of pathogen subtypes within and between populations. Here, we apply the Disease Surveillance Informatics Optimization and Simulation (DIOS) framework to simulate and optimize hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) surveillance in a high-burden region of western China. We identify laboratory surveillance designs that significantly outperform the existing network: the optimal network reduced mean absolute error in estimated serotype-specific incidence rates by 14.1%; similarly, the optimal network for monitoring severe cases reduced mean absolute error in serotype-specific incidence rates by 13.3%. In both cases, the optimal network designs achieved improved inference without increasing subtyping effort. We demonstrate how the DIOS framework can be used to optimize surveillance networks by augmenting clinical diagnostic data with limited laboratory typing resources, while adapting to specific, local surveillance objectives and constraints.

Tailoring capture-recapture methods to estimate registry-based case counts based on error-prone diagnostic signals.

Surveillance research is of great importance for effective and efficient epidemiological monitoring of case counts and disease prevalence. Taking specific motivation from ongoing efforts to identify recurrent cases based on the Georgia Cancer Registry, we extend recently proposed "anchor stream" sampling design and estimation methodology. Our approach offers a more efficient and defensible alternative to traditional capture-recapture (CRC) methods by leveraging a relatively small random sample of participants whose recurrence status is obtained through a principled application of medical records abstraction. This sample is combined with one or more existing signaling data streams, which may yield data based on arbitrarily non-representative subsets of the full registry population. The key extension developed here accounts for the common problem of false positive or negative diagnostic signals from the existing data stream(s). In particular, we show that the design only requires documentation of positive signals in these non-anchor surveillance streams, and permits valid estimation of the true case count based on an estimable positive predictive value (PPV) parameter. We borrow ideas from the multiple imputation paradigm to provide accompanying standard errors, and develop an adapted Bayesian credible interval approach that yields favorable frequentist coverage properties. We demonstrate the benefits of the proposed methods through simulation studies, and provide a data example targeting estimation of the breast cancer recurrence case count among Metro Atlanta area patients from the Georgia Cancer Registry-based Cancer Recurrence Information and Surveillance Program (CRISP) database.

Negative Control Exposures: Causal Effect Identifiability and Use in Probabilistic-bias and Bayesian Analyses With Unmeasured Confounders.

BACKGROUND: Probabilistic bias and Bayesian analyses are important tools for bias correction, particularly when required parameters are nonidentifiable. Negative controls are another tool; they can be used to detect and correct for confounding. Our goals are to present conditions that assure identifiability of certain causal effects and to describe and illustrate a probabilistic bias analysis and related Bayesian analysis that use a negative control exposure. METHODS: Using potential-outcome models, we characterized assumptions needed for identification of causal effects using a dichotomous, negative control exposure when residual confounding exists. We defined bias parameters, characterized their relationships with the negative control and with specified causal effects, and described the corresponding probabilistic-bias and Bayesian analyses. We present analytic examples using data on hormone therapy and suicide attempts among transgender people. To address possible confounding by healthcare utilization, we used prior tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis (TdaP) vaccination as a negative control exposure. RESULTS: Hormone therapy was weakly associated with risk (risk ratio [RR] = 0.9). The negative control exposure was associated with risk (RR = 1.7), suggesting confounding. Based on an assumed prior distribution for the bias parameter, the 95% simulation interval for the distribution of confounding-adjusted RR was (0.17, 1.6), with median 0.5; the 95% credibility interval was similar. CONCLUSIONS: We used dichotomous negative control exposure to identify causal effects when a confounder was unmeasured under strong assumptions. It may be possible to relax assumptions and the negative control exposure could prove helpful for probabilistic bias analyses and Bayesian analyses.

Understanding Variation in Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness Estimates in the United States: The Role of Rotavirus Activity and Diagnostic Misclassification.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the United States appear higher in years with more rotavirus activity. We hypothesized rotavirus VE is constant over time but appears to vary as a function of temporal variation in local rotavirus cases and/or misclassified diagnoses. METHODS: We analyzed 6 years of data from eight US surveillance sites on 8- to 59-month olds with acute gastroenteritis symptoms. Children's stool samples were tested via enzyme immunoassay (EIA); rotavirus-positive results were confirmed with molecular testing at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We defined rotavirus gastroenteritis cases by either positive on-site EIA results alone or positive EIA with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmation. For each case definition, we estimated VE against any rotavirus gastroenteritis, moderate-to-severe disease, and hospitalization using two mixed-effect regression models: the first including year plus a year-vaccination interaction, and the second including the annual percent of rotavirus-positive tests plus a percent positive-vaccination interaction. We used multiple overimputation to bias-adjust for misclassification of cases defined by positive EIA alone. RESULTS: Estimates of annual rotavirus VE against all outcomes fluctuated temporally, particularly when we defined cases by on-site EIA alone and used a year-vaccination interaction. Use of confirmatory testing to define cases reduced, but did not eliminate, fluctuations. Temporal fluctuations in VE estimates further attenuated when we used a percent positive-vaccination interaction. Fluctuations persisted until bias-adjustment for diagnostic misclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Both controlling for time-varying rotavirus activity and bias-adjusting for diagnostic misclassification are critical for estimating the most valid annual rotavirus VE.

Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics.

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual's contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual's positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual's biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.