Paternal Use of Metformin During the Sperm Development Period Preceding Conception and Risk for Major Congenital Malformations in Newborns.

BACKGROUND: Metformin is the most used oral antidiabetic medication. Despite its established safety profile, it has known antiandrogenic and epigenetic modifying effects. This raised concerns about possible adverse developmental effects caused by genomic alterations related to paternal use of metformin during the spermatogenesis period preceding conception. OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential adverse intergenerational effect of metformin by examining the association between paternal metformin use during spermatogenesis and major congenital malformations (MCMs) in newborns. DESIGN: Nationally representative cohort study. SETTING: A large Israeli health fund. PARTICIPANTS: 383 851 live births linked to fathers and mothers that occurred in 1999 to 2020. MEASUREMENTS: MCMs and parental cardiometabolic conditions were ascertained using clinical diagnoses, medication dispensing information, and laboratory test results. The effect of metformin use on MCMs was estimated using general estimating equations, accounting for concurrent use of other antidiabetic medications and parental cardiometabolic morbidity. RESULTS: Compared with unexposed fathers, the prevalence of cardiometabolic morbidity was substantially higher among fathers who used metformin during spermatogenesis, and their spouses. Whereas the crude odds ratio (OR) for paternal metformin exposure in all formulations and MCMs was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.64), the adjusted OR was 1.00 (CI, 0.76 to 1.31). Within specific treatment regimens, the adjusted OR was 0.86 (CI, 0.60 to 1.23) for metformin in monotherapy and 1.36 (CI, 1.00 to 1.85) for metformin in polytherapy, a treatment that was more common in patients with more poorly controlled diabetes. LIMITATION: Laboratory test results for hemoglobin A1c to assess underlying diabetes severity were available only for a subset of the cohort. CONCLUSION: Paternal use of metformin in monotherapy does not increase the risk for MCMs. Association for metformin in polytherapy could potentially be explained by worse underlying parental cardiometabolic risk profile. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Multigenerational association between smoking and autism spectrum disorder: findings from a nationwide prospective cohort study.

Animal studies have shown that exposure to cigarette smoke during pregnancy can induce neurobehavioral anomalies in multiple subsequent generations. However, little work has examined such effects in humans. We examined the risk of grandchild autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in association with grandmother's smoking during pregnancy, using data from 53 562 mothers and grandmothers and 120 267 grandchildren in Nurses' Health Study II. In 1999, Nurses' Health Study II participants with children reported on their mothers' smoking. Grandchildren's ASD diagnoses were reported by the mothers in 2005 and 2009. Among grandmothers, 13 383 (25.0%) smoked during pregnancy, and 509 (0.4%) grandchildren were diagnosed with ASD. The adjusted odds ratio for ASD for grandmother smoking during pregnancy was 1.52 (95% CI, 1.06-2.20). Results were similar with direct grandmother reporting in 2001 of her smoking during pregnancy from the Nurses' Mothers Cohort Study subgroup (n = 22 167 grandmothers, n = 49 917 grandchildren) and were stronger among grandmothers who smoked ≥15 cigarettes per day during pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio = 1.93 [95% CI, 1.10-3.40]; n = 1895 grandmothers, n = 4212 grandchildren). Results were similar when we adjusted for mother's smoking during pregnancy. There was no association with grandfather's smoking as reported by the grandmother. Our results suggest a potential persistent impact of gestational exposure to environmental insults across 3 generations.

Early-life participation in cognitively stimulating activities and risk of depression and anxiety in late life.

BACKGROUND: Early-life stressful experiences are associated with increased risk of adverse psychological outcomes in later life. However, much less is known about associations between early-life positive experiences, such as participation in cognitively stimulating activities, and late-life mental health. We investigated whether greater engagement in cognitively stimulating activities in early life is associated with lower risk of depression and anxiety in late life. METHODS: We surveyed former participants of the St. Louis Baby Tooth study, between 22 June 2021 and 25 March 2022 to collect information on participants' current depression/anxiety symptoms and their early-life activities (N = 2187 responded). A composite activity score was created to represent the early-life activity level by averaging the frequency of self-reported participation in common cognitively stimulating activities in participants' early life (age 6, 12, 18), each rated on a 1 (least frequent) to 5 (most frequent) point scale. Depression/anxiety symptoms were measured by Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder Screener (GAD-7). We used logistic regressions to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of outcome risk associated with frequency of early-life activity. RESULTS: Each one-point increase in the early-life composite cognitive activity score was associated with an OR of 0.54 (95% CI 0.38-0.77) for late-life depression and an OR of 0.94 (95% CI 0.61-1.43) for late-life anxiety, adjusting for age, sex, race, parental education, childhood family structure, and socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: More frequent participation in cognitively stimulating activities during early life was associated with reduced risk of late-life depression.

Association between gestational exposure to solar activity and pregnancy loss using live births from a Massachusetts-based medical center.

BACKGROUND: Solar activity has been linked to biological mechanisms important to pregnancy, including folate and melatonin levels and inflammatory markers. Thus, we aimed to investigate the association between gestational solar activity and pregnancy loss. METHODS: Our study included 71,963 singleton births conceived in 2002-2016 and delivered at an academic medical center in Eastern Massachusetts. We studied several solar activity metrics, including sunspot number, Kp index, and ultraviolet radiation, with data from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We used a novel time series analytic approach to investigate associations between each metric from conception through 24 weeks of gestation and the number of live birth-identified conceptions (LBICs) -the total number of conceptions in each week that result in a live birth. This approach fits distributed lag models to data on LBICs, adjusted for time trends, and allows us to infer associations between pregnancy exposure and pregnancy loss. RESULTS: Overall, the association between solar activity during pregnancy and pregnancy loss varied by exposure metric. For sunspot number, we found that an interquartile range increase in sunspot number (78·7 sunspots) in all of the first 24 weeks of pregnancy was associated with 14·0 (95% CI: 6·5, 21·3) more pregnancy losses out of the average 92 LBICs in a week, and exposure in weeks ten through thirteen was identified as a critical window. Although not statistically significant, higher exposure to Kp index and to UV radiation across all 24 weeks of pregnancy was associated with more and less pregnancy losses, respectively. CONCLUSION: While exposure to certain metrics of solar activity (i.e., sunspot number) throughout the first 24 weeks of pregnancy may be associated with pregnancy losses, exposure to other metrics were not. Solar activity is a complex phenomenon, and more studies are needed to clarify underlying pathways.

Deciduous teeth from the New Hampshire birth cohort study: Early life environmental and dietary predictors of dentin elements.

BACKGROUND: Sparse research exists on predictors of element concentrations measured in deciduous teeth. OBJECTIVE: To estimate associations between maternal/child characteristics, elements measured in home tap water during pregnancy and element concentrations in the dentin of shed deciduous teeth. METHODS: Our analysis included 152 pregnant person-infant dyads followed from the second trimester through the end of the first postnatal year from the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study. During pregnancy and early infancy, we collected dietary and sociodemographic information via surveys, measured elements in home tap water, and later collected naturally exfoliated teeth from child participants. We measured longitudinal deposition of elements in dentin using LA-ICP-MS. Multivariable linear mixed models were used to estimate associations between predictors and dentin element concentrations. RESULTS: We measured 12 elements in dentin including those previously reported (Ba, Mn, Pb, Sr, Zn) and less frequently reported (Al, As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Li, and W). A doubling of Pb or Sr concentrations in water was associated with higher dentin Pb or Sr respectively in prenatally formed [9% (95%CI: 3%, 15%); 3% (1%, 6%)] and postnatally formed [10% (2%, 19%); 6% (2%, 10%)] dentin. Formula feeding from birth to 6 weeks or 6 weeks to 4 months was associated with higher element concentrations in postnatal dentin within the given time period as compared to exclusive human milk feeding: Sr: 6 weeks: 61% (36%, 90%) and 4 months: 85% (54%, 121%); Ba: 6 weeks: 35% (3.3%, 77%) and 4 months: 42% (10%, 83%); and Li: 6 weeks: 61% (33%, 95%) and 4 months: 58% (31%, 90%). SIGNIFICANCE: These findings offer insights into predictors of dentin elements and potential confounders in exposure-health outcome relationships during critical developmental periods.

The association between toenail metals and extracellular MicroRNAs (ex-miRNAs) among the participants of the Normative Aging study (NAS).

BACKGROUND: Mechanistic studies of the effects of environmental risk factors have been exploring the potential role of microRNA(miRNAs) as a possible pathway to clinical disease. In this study we examine whether levels of toenail metals are associated with changes in extracellular miRNA(ex-miRNA) expression. METHODS: We used data derived from the Normative Aging Study from 1996 to 2014 to conduct our analyses. We looked at associations between measured toenail metals: arsenic, cadmium, lead, manganese, and mercury and 282 ex-miRNAs in this population using canonical correlation analyses (CCAs) and longitudinal median regression. We adjusted for covariates such as age, education, body mass index, drinking and smoking behaviors, diabetes, and where available, seafood consumption. The p-values obtained from regression analyses were corrected for multiple comparisons. Ex-miRNAs identified to be associated with toenail metal levels were further examined using pathway analyses. RESULTS: Our dataset included 937 observations from 589 men with an average age of 72.9 years at baseline. Both our correlation and regression analyses identified lead and cadmium as exposures most strongly associated with ex-miRNA expression. Numerous ex-miRNAs were identified as being associated with toenail metal levels. miR-27b-3p, in particular, was found to have high correlation with the first canonical dimension in the CCA and was significantly associated with cadmium in the regression analysis. Pathway analyses revealed messenger RNA (mRNA) targets for the ex-miRNAs that were associated with a number of clinical disorders including cancer, cardiovascular disease, and neurological disorders, etc. CONCLUSION: Toenail metals were associated with changes in ex-miRNA levels in both correlational and regression analyses. The ex-miRNAs identified can be linked to a variety of clinical disorders. Further studies are required to validate these findings.

Maternal arsenic exposure modifies associations between arsenic, folate and arsenic metabolism gene variants, and spina bifida risk: A case‒control study in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Spina bifida is a type of neural tube defect (NTD); NTDs are developmental malformations of the spinal cord that result from failure of neural tube closure during embryogenesis and are likely caused by interactions between genetic and environmental factors. Arsenic induces NTDs in animal models, and studies demonstrate that mice with genetic defects related to folate metabolism are more susceptible to arsenic's effects. We sought to determine whether 25 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes involved in folate and arsenic metabolism modified the associations between maternal arsenic exposure and risk of spina bifida (a common NTD) among a hospital-based case-control study population in Bangladesh. METHODS: We used data from 262 mothers and 220 infants who participated in a case‒control study at the National Institutes of Neurosciences & Hospital and Dhaka Shishu Hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Neurosurgeons assessed infants using physical examinations, review of imaging, and we collected histories using questionnaires. We assessed arsenic from mothers' toenails using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), and we genotyped participants using the Illumina Global Screening Array v1.0. We chose candidate genes and SNPs through a review of the literature. We assessed SNP-environment interactions using interaction terms and stratified models, and we assessed gene-environment interactions using interaction sequence/SNP-set kernel association tests (iSKAT). RESULTS: The median toenail arsenic concentration was 0.42 µg/g (interquartile range [IQR]: 0.27-0.86) among mothers of cases and 0.47 µg/g (IQR: 0.30-0.97) among mothers of controls. We found an two SNPs in the infants' AS3MT gene (rs11191454 and rs7085104) and one SNP in mothers' DNMT1 gene (rs2228611) were associated with increased odds of spina bifida in the setting of high arsenic exposure (rs11191454, OR 3.01, 95% CI: 1.28-7.09; rs7085104, OR 2.33, 95% CI: 1.20-4.and rs2228611, OR 2.11, 95% CI: 1.11-4.01), along with significant SNP-arsenic interactions. iSKAT analyses revealed significant interactions between mothers' toenail concentrations and infants' AS3MT and MTR genes (p = 0.02), and mothers' CBS gene (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the hypothesis that arsenic increases spina bifida risk via interactions with folate and arsenic metabolic pathways and suggests that individuals in the population who have certain genetic polymorphisms in genes involved with arsenic and folate metabolism may be more susceptible than others to the arsenic teratogenicity.

Arsenic modifies the effect of folic acid in spina bifida prevention, a large hospital-based case-control study in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Spina bifida, a developmental malformation of the spinal cord, is associated with high rates of mortality and disability. Although folic acid-based preventive strategies have been successful in reducing rates of spina bifida, some areas continue to be at higher risk because of chemical exposures. Bangladesh has high arsenic exposures through contaminated drinking water and high rates of spina bifida. This study examines the relationships between mother's arsenic exposure, folic acid, and spina bifida risk in Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted a hospital-based case-control study at the National Institute of Neurosciences & Hospital (NINS&H) in Dhaka, Bangladesh, between December 2016 and December 2022. Cases were infants under age one year with spina bifida and further classified by a neurosurgeon and imaging. Controls were drawn from children seen at NINS&H and nearby Dhaka Shishu Hospital. Mothers reported folic acid use during pregnancy, and we assessed folate status with serum assays. Arsenic exposure was estimated in drinking water using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry (GF-AAS) and in toenails using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). We used logistic regression to examine the associations between arsenic and spina bifida. We used stratified models to examine the associations between folic acid and spina bifida at different levels of arsenic exposure. RESULTS: We evaluated data from 294 cases of spina bifida and 163 controls. We did not find a main effect of mother's arsenic exposure on spina bifida risk. However, in stratified analyses, folic acid use was associated with lower odds of spina bifida (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25-1.00, p = 0.05) among women with toenail arsenic concentrations below the median value of 0.46 µg/g, and no association was seen among mothers with toenail arsenic concentrations higher than 0.46 µg/g (adjusted OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.52-2.29, p = 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Mother's arsenic exposure modified the protective association of folic acid with spina bifida. Increased surveillance and additional preventive strategies, such as folic acid fortification and reduction of arsenic, are needed in areas of high arsenic exposure.

Bias Amplification and Variance Inflation in Distributed Lag Models Using Low-Spatial-Resolution Data.

Distributed lag models (DLMs) are often used to estimate lagged associations and identify critical exposure windows. In a simulation study of prenatal nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure and birth weight, we demonstrate that bias amplification and variance inflation can manifest under certain combinations of DLM estimation approaches and time-trend adjustment methods when using low-spatial-resolution exposures with extended lags. Our simulations showed that when using high-spatial-resolution exposure data, any time-trend adjustment method produced low bias and nominal coverage for the distributed lag estimator. When using either low- or no-spatial-resolution exposures, bias due to time trends was amplified for all adjustment methods. Variance inflation was higher in low- or no-spatial-resolution DLMs when using a long-term spline to adjust for seasonality and long-term trends due to concurvity between a distributed lag function and secular function of time. NO2-birth weight analyses in a Massachusetts-based cohort showed that associations were negative for exposures experienced in gestational weeks 15-30 when using high-spatial-resolution DLMs; however, associations were null and positive for DLMs with low- and no-spatial-resolution exposures, respectively, which is likely due to bias amplification. DLM analyses should jointly consider the spatial resolution of exposure data and the parameterizations of the time trend adjustment and lag constraints.

Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Ultrasound Parameters of Fetal Growth in Eastern Massachusetts.

Previous studies have examined the association between prenatal nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-a traffic emissions tracer-and fetal growth based on ultrasound measures. Yet, most have used exposure assessment methods with low temporal resolution, which limits the identification of critical exposure windows given that pregnancy is relatively short. Here, we used NO2 data from an ensemble model linked to residential addresses at birth to fit distributed lag models that estimated the association between NO2 exposure (resolved weekly) and ultrasound biometric parameters in a Massachusetts-based cohort of 9,446 singleton births from 2011-2016. Ultrasound biometric parameters examined included biparietal diameter (BPD), head circumference, femur length, and abdominal circumference. All models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, time trends, and temperature. We found that higher NO2 was negatively associated with all ultrasound parameters. The critical window differed depending on the parameter and when it was assessed. For example, for BPD measured after week 31, the critical exposure window appeared to be weeks 15-25; 10-parts-per-billion higher NO2 sustained from conception to the time of measurement was associated with a lower mean z score of -0.11 (95% CI: -0.17, -0.05). Our findings indicate that reducing traffic emissions is one potential avenue to improving fetal and offspring health.

Exploring Relevant Time Windows in the Association Between PM2.5 Exposure and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Case-Control Study in Denmark.

Studies suggest a link between particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but to our knowledge critical exposure windows have not been examined. We performed a case-control study in the Danish population spanning the years 1989-2013. Cases were selected from the Danish National Patient Registry based on International Classification of Diseases codes. Five controls were randomly selected from the Danish Civil Registry and matched to a case on vital status, age, and sex. PM2.5 concentration at residential addresses was assigned using monthly predictions from a dispersion model. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for confounding. We evaluated exposure to averaged PM2.5 concentrations 12-24 months, 2-6 years, and 2-11 years pre-ALS diagnosis; annual lagged exposures up to 11 years prediagnosis; and cumulative associations for exposure in lags 1-5 years and 1-10 years prediagnosis, allowing for varying association estimates by year. We identified 3,983 cases and 19,915 controls. Cumulative exposure to PM2.5 in the period 2-6 years prediagnosis was associated with ALS (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.13). Exposures in the second, third, and fourth years prediagnosis were individually associated with higher odds of ALS (e.g., for lag 1, OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.08). Exposure to PM2.5 within 6 years before diagnosis may represent a critical exposure window for ALS.

Misclassification Bias in the Assessment of Gene-by-Environment Interactions.

BACKGROUND: Misclassification bias is a common concern in epidemiologic studies. Despite strong bias on main effects, gene-environment interactions have been shown to be biased towards the null under gene-environment independence. In the context of a recent article examining the interaction between nerve agent exposure and paraoxonase-1 gene on Gulf War Illness, we aimed to assess the impact of recall bias-a common misclassfication bias-on the identification of gene-environment interactions when the independence assumption is violated. METHODS: We derive equations to quantify the bias of the interaction, and numerically illustrate these results by simulating a case-control study of 1000 cases and 1000 controls. Simulation input parameters included exposure prevalence, strength of gene-environment dependence, strength of the main effect, exposure specificity among cases, and strength of the gene-environment interaction. RESULTS: We show that, even if gene-environment independence is violated, we can bound possible gene-environment interactions by knowing the strength and direction of the gene-environment dependence ( ) and the observed gene-environment interaction ( )-thus often still allowing for the identification of such interactions. Depending on whether is larger or smaller than the inverse of , is a lower (if ) or upper (if ) bound for the true interaction. In addition, the bias magnitude is somewhat predictable by examining other characteristics such as exposure prevalence, the strength of the exposure main effect, and directions of the recall bias and gene-environment dependence. CONCLUSIONS: Even if gene-environment dependence exists, we may still be able to identify gene-environment interactions even when misclassification bias is present.

Air pollution, climate conditions and risk of hospital admissions for psychotic disorders in U.S. residents.

BACKGROUND: The physical environmental risk factors for psychotic disorders are poorly understood. This study aimed to examine the associations between exposure to ambient air pollution, climate measures and risk of hospitalization for psychotic disorders and uncover potential disparities by demographic, community factors. METHODS: Using Health Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases (SIDs), we applied zero-inflated negative binomial regression to obtain relative risks of hospitalization due to psychotic disorders associated with increases in residential exposure to ambient air pollution (fine particulate matter, PM2.5; nitrogen dioxide, NO2), temperature and cumulative precipitation. The analysis covered all-age residents in eight U.S. states over the period of 2002-2016. We additionally investigated modification by age, sex and area-level poverty, percent of blacks and Hispanics. RESULTS: Over the study period and among the covered areas, we identified 1,211,100 admissions due to psychotic disorders. For each interquartile (IQR) increase in exposure to PM2.5 and NO2, we observed a relative risk (RR) of 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09, 1.13) and 1.27 (95% CI = 1.24, 1.31), respectively. For each 1 °C increase of temperature, the RR was 1.03 (95% CI = 1.03, 1.04). Males were more affected by NO2. Older age residents (≥30 yrs) were more sensitive to PM2.5 and temperature. Population living in economically disadvantaged areas were more affected by air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that living in areas with higher levels of air pollutants and ambient temperature could contribute to additional risk of inpatient care for individuals with psychotic disorders.

Statin Medications and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Incidence and Mortality.

Studies of statins and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence and survival have had conflicting findings possibly related to difficulties with confounding by indication. We considered potency of statins used and duration of use to explore confounding by indication. Within the Clalit Health Services in Israel, we identified 948 ALS case patients from 2004 through 2017 and matched them with 1,000 control subjects each. Any statin use up to 3 years before ALS onset was not associated with ALS incidence but was associated with a reduced hazard ratio (HR) for death. Odds of ALS did not vary by statin potency, but use of only lower-potency statins was associated with longer survival (HR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.98), whereas the association with higher-potency statins was null compared with those case patients who did not use statins. However, duration of statin use appeared to account for these findings. Those who used statins only up to 3 years had longer survival (HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.96) than did case patients who did not use statins, but those who used statins for >3 years did not. Although other explanations are possible, these findings could suggest a protective effect of statins on ALS survival that is partially masked by a worse prognosis from underlying reasons for taking statins that deserves further exploration.

Maternal Thyroid Anomalies and Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in Progeny.

Previous epidemiologic investigations suggested that maternal thyroid anomalies are a possible causal factor in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in progeny, yet clinical trials indicated that levothyroxine treatment was ineffective in preventing neurodevelopmental impairments. We used an Israeli cohort of 385,542 singleton births from 1999-2012 to explore the interrelated roles of maternal thyroid conditions, laboratory gestational thyroid hormone measurements, use of thyroid medications, and offspring ADHD. Analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards models. Results indicated that maternal hypothyroidism diagnosis was associated with an elevated progeny ADHD hazard (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval = 1.10, 1.18). However, this association was unmitigated by gestational use of levothyroxine and was unexplained by maternal gestational thyroid hormone levels. Associations with gestational thyrotropin values and hypothyroxinemia were also observed but were robust only in mothers without other records indicative of a thyroid problem. Results indicated that maternal thyroid hypofunction was associated with progeny ADHD but possibly not due to a direct causal relationship. Instead, maternal thyroid hypofunction may serve as a proxy indicator for other factors that affect neurodevelopment through thyroid hormone independent pathways, which are thus unaffected by pharmaceutical treatments for thyroid hypofunction. Factors known to disrupt thyroid functioning should be examined for their independent ADHD-related effects.

On the Nature of Informative Presence Bias in Analyses of Electronic Health Records.

Electronic health records (EHRs) offer unprecedented opportunities to answer epidemiologic questions. However, unlike in ordinary cohort studies or randomized trials, EHR data are collected somewhat idiosyncratically. In particular, patients who have more contact with the medical system have more opportunities to receive diagnoses, which are then recorded in their EHRs. The goal of this article is to shed light on the nature and scope of this phenomenon, known as informative presence, which can bias estimates of associations. We show how this can be characterized as an instance of misclassification bias. As a consequence, we show that informative presence bias can occur in a broader range of settings than previously thought, and that simple adjustment for the number of visits as a confounder may not fully correct for bias. Additionally, where previous work has considered only underdiagnosis, investigators are often concerned about overdiagnosis; we show how this changes the settings in which bias manifests. We report on a comprehensive series of simulations to shed light on when to expect informative presence bias, how it can be mitigated in some cases, and cases in which new methods need to be developed.

Long-term Traffic-related Air Pollutant Exposure and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Diagnosis in Denmark: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease. Limited evidence suggests ALS diagnosis may be associated with air pollution exposure and specifically traffic-related pollutants. METHODS: In this population-based case-control study, we used 3,937 ALS cases from the Danish National Patient Register diagnosed during 1989-2013 and matched on age, sex, year of birth, and vital status to 19,333 population-based controls free of ALS at index date. We used validated predictions of elemental carbon (EC), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), carbon monoxide (CO), and fine particles (PM 2.5 ) to assign 1-, 5-, and 10-year average exposures pre-ALS diagnosis at study participants' present and historical residential addresses. We used an adjusted Bayesian hierarchical conditional logistic model to estimate individual pollutant associations and joint and average associations for traffic-related pollutants (EC, NO x , CO). RESULTS: For a standard deviation (SD) increase in 5-year average concentrations, EC (SD = 0.42 µg/m 3 ) had a high probability of individual association with increased odds of ALS (11.5%; 95% credible interval [CrI] = -1.0%, 25.6%; 96.3% posterior probability of positive association), with negative associations for NO x (SD = 20 µg/m 3 ) (-4.6%; 95% CrI = 18.1%, 8.9%; 27.8% posterior probability of positive association), CO (SD = 106 µg/m 3 ) (-3.2%; 95% CrI = 14.4%, 10.0%; 26.7% posterior probability of positive association), and a null association for nonelemental carbon fine particles (non-EC PM 2.5 ) (SD = 2.37 µg/m 3 ) (0.7%; 95% CrI = 9.2%, 12.4%). We found no association between ALS and joint or average traffic pollution concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This study found high probability of a positive association between ALS diagnosis and EC concentration. Further work is needed to understand the role of traffic-related air pollution in ALS pathogenesis.

Polygenic risk for autism, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, major depressive disorder, and neuroticism is associated with the experience of childhood abuse.

People who experience childhood abuse are at increased risk of mental illness. Twin studies suggest that inherited genetic risk for mental illness may account for some of these associations. Yet, the hypothesis that individuals who have experienced childhood abuse may carry genetic loading for mental illness has never been tested with genetic data. Using polygenic risk scores for six psychiatric disorders-attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), bipolar disorder (BPD), major depressive disorder (MDD), neuroticism, and schizophrenia-we tested whether genetic risk for mental illness was associated with increased risk of experiencing three types of childhood abuse: physical/emotional abuse, physical assault, and sexual abuse, in a cohort of white non-Hispanic women (n = 11,315). ADHD and MDD genetic risk scores were associated with a higher risk of experiencing each type of childhood abuse, while neuroticism, schizophrenia, BPD, and ASD genetic scores were associated with a higher risk of experiencing physical/emotional abuse and physical assault, but not sexual abuse. Sensitivity analyses examining potential bias from the differential recall of childhood trauma, parental socioeconomic status, and population stratification were consistent with the main findings. A one-standard-deviation increase in genetic risk for mental illness was associated with a modestly elevated risk of experiencing childhood abuse (OR range: 1.05-1.19). Therefore, inherited genetic risk may partly account for the association of childhood abuse with mental illness. In addition, future treatments for mental illness will benefit from taking into consideration the co-occurrence of childhood trauma and genetic loading.

Prenatal exposure to chemical mixtures and working memory among adolescents.

Working memory is the ability to keep information in one's mind and mentally manipulate it. Decrements in working memory play a key role in many behavioral and psychiatric disorders, therefore identifying modifiable environmental risk factors for such decrements is important for mitigating these disorders. There is some evidence that prenatal exposure to individual chemicals may adversely impact working memory among children, but few studies have explored the association of co-exposure to multiple chemicals with this outcome in adolescence, a time when working memory skills undergo substantial development. We investigated the association of organochlorines (DDE, HCB, PCBs) and metals (lead, manganese) measured in cord serum and cord blood, respectively, with working memory measured with the Wide Range Assessment of Memory and Learning, 2nd Edition among 373 adolescents living near a Superfund site in New Bedford, Massachusetts. We used Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) and linear regression analyses and assessed effect modification by sex and prenatal social disadvantage. In BKMR models, we observed an adverse joint association of the chemical mixture with Verbal, but not Symbolic, Working Memory. In co-exposure and covariate-adjusted linear regression models, a twofold increase in cord blood manganese was associated with lower working memory scaled scores, with a stronger association with Verbal Working Memory (difference = -0.75; 95% CI: -1.29, -0.20 points) compared to Symbolic Working Memory (difference = -0.44; 95% CI: -1.00, 0.12 points). There was little evidence of effect modification by sex and some evidence associating organochlorine pesticides with poorer working memory scores among those with greater prenatal social disadvantage. This study provided evidence of an adverse joint association of a chemical mixture with a verbal working memory task among adolescents, as well as an adverse association of prenatal manganese exposure with working memory.

The associations of prenatal exposure to dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls with neurodevelopment at 6 Months of age: Multi-pollutant approaches.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to persistent organic pollutants, including polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (DL-PCBs), and nondioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs), has been hypothesized to have a detrimental impact on neurodevelopment. However, the association of prenatal exposure to a dioxin and PCB mixture with neurodevelopment remains largely inconclusive partly because these chemical levels are correlated. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to elucidate the association of in utero exposure to a mixture of dioxins and PCBs with neurodevelopment measured at 6 months of age by applying multipollutant methods. METHODS: A total of 514 pregnant women were recruited between July 2002 and October 2005 in the Sapporo cohort, Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children's Health. The concentrations of individual dioxin and PCB isomers were assessed in maternal peripheral blood during pregnancy. The mental and psychomotor development of the study participants' infants was evaluated using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-2nd Edition (n = 259). To determine both the joint and individual associations of prenatal exposure to a dioxin and PCB mixture with infant neurodevelopment, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and quantile-based g-computation were employed. RESULTS: Suggestive inverse associations were observed between in utero exposure to a dioxin and PCB mixture and infant psychomotor development in both the BKMR and quantile g-computation models. In contrast, we found no association of a dioxin and PCB mixture with mental development. When group-specific posterior inclusion probabilities were estimated, BKMR suggested prenatal exposure to mono-ortho PCBs as the more important contributing factors to early psychomotor development compared with the other dioxin or PCB groups. No evidence of nonlinear exposure-outcome relationships or interactions among the chemical mixtures was detected. CONCLUSIONS: Applying the two complementary statistical methods for chemical mixture analysis, we demonstrated limited evidence of inverse associations of prenatal exposure to dioxins and PCBs with infant psychomotor development.