The evolutionary dynamics of hyperparasites.

Evolutionary theory has typically focused on pairwise interactions, such as those between hosts and parasites, with relatively little work having been carried out on more complex interactions including hyperparasites: parasites of parasites. Hyperparasites are common in nature, with the chestnut blight fungus virus CHV-1 a well-known natural example, but also notably include the phages of important human bacterial diseases. We build a general modeling framework for the evolution of hyperparasites that highlights the central role that the ability of a hyperparasite to be transmitted with its parasite plays in their evolution. A key result is that hyperparasites which transmit with their parasite hosts (hitchhike) will be selected for lower virulence, trending towards hypermutualism or hypercommensalism. We examine the impact on the evolution of hyperparasite systems of a wide range of host and parasite traits showing, for example, that high parasite virulence selects for higher hyperparasite virulence resulting in reductions in parasite virulence when hyperparasitized. Furthermore, we show that acute parasite infection will also select for increased hyperparasite virulence. Our results have implications for hyperparasite research, both as biocontrol agents and for their role in shaping community ecology and evolution and moreover emphasize the importance of understanding evolution in the context of multitrophic interactions.

The Impact of Host Abundance on the Epidemiology of Tick-Borne Infection.

Tick-borne diseases are an increasing global public health concern due to an expanding geographical range and increase in abundance of tick-borne infectious agents. A potential explanation for the rising impact of tick-borne diseases is an increase in tick abundance which may be linked to an increase in density of the hosts on which they feed. In this study, we develop a model framework to understand the link between host density, tick demography and tick-borne pathogen epidemiology. Our model links the development of specific tick stages to the specific hosts on which they feed. We show that host community composition and host density have an impact on tick population dynamics and that this has a consequent impact on host and tick epidemiological dynamics. A key result is that our model framework can exhibit variation in host infection prevalence for a fixed density of one host type due to changes in density of other host types that support different tick life stages. Our findings suggest that host community composition may play a crucial role in explaining the variation in prevalence of tick-borne infections in hosts observed in the field.

Restoring vertebrate predator populations can provide landscape-scale biological control of established invasive vertebrates: Insights from pine marten recovery in Europe.

Invasive species pose one of the greatest global threats to biodiversity. There has been a long history of importing coevolved natural enemies to act as biological control agents to try to suppress densities of invasive species, with historically limited success and frequent adverse impacts on native biodiversity. Our understanding of the processes and drivers of successful biological control has been focussed on invertebrates and is evidently limited and potentially ill-suited with respect to biological control of vertebrate populations. The restoration of native vertebrate predator populations provides a promising nature-based solution for slowing, halting, or even reversing the spread of some invasive vertebrates over spatial scales relevant to the management of wildlife populations. Here, we first review the growing literature and data from the pine marten-red and grey squirrel system in Europe. We synthesise a multi-decadal dataset to show that the recovery of a native predator has resulted in rapid, landscape-scale declines of an established invasive species. We then use the model system, predator-prey interaction theory, and examples from the literature to develop ecological theory relating to natural biological control in vertebrates and evolutionary processes in native-invasive predator-prey interactions. We find support for the hypotheses that evolutionary naivety of invasive species to native predators and lack of local refuges results in higher predation of naive compared to coevolved prey. We apply lessons learnt from the marten-squirrel model system to examine the plausibility of specific native predator solutions to some of the Earth's most devastating invasive vertebrates. Given the evidence, we conclude that depletion of vertebrate predator populations has increased ecosystem vulnerability to invasions and thus facilitated the spread of invasive species. Therefore, restoration of vertebrate predator populations is an underappreciated, fundamental, nature-based solution to the crisis of invasive species and should be a priority for vertebrate invasive species management globally.

Application of tetrad testing to the evaluation of blinding strategies for ancillary supplies used in controlled clinical trials.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Ensuring verum and placebo cannot be visually distinguished from each other is a critical aspect of blinded controlled clinical trials. Our objective was to propose a rational approach to the visual evaluation of placebo matching candidates. METHODS: Verum and placebo samples were prepared in clear clinical ancillary supplies (intravenous bags, syringes and administration lines) covered at different levels using opaque sleeves. Triangle and tetrad tests, two sensory discriminative testing methods widely used in the food industry, were applied to assess visual differences between verum and placebo. RESULTS: Triangle and tetrad test results allowed defining the level of opaque coverage required to ensure blinding for three biological drug molecules of therapeutic interest. While the limited number of panelists did not allow a statistically sound comparison of triangle and tetrad test methodologies, tetrad test has a theoretical higher power than triangle test, meaning fewer panelists are needed to reach the same statistical conclusion. CONCLUSION: Tetrad test offers a rational approach to define a blinding strategy for ancillary supplies used in a controlled clinical trial.

The Critical Role of Infectious Disease in Compensatory Population Growth in Response to Culling.

Despite the ubiquity of disease in nature, the role that disease dynamics play in the compensatory growth response to harvesting has been ignored. We use a mathematical approach to show that harvesting can lead to compensatory growth due to a release from disease-induced mortality. Our findings imply that culling in systems that harbor virulent parasites can reduce disease prevalence and increase population density. Our models predict that this compensation occurs for a broad range of infectious disease characteristics unless the disease induces long-lasting immunity in hosts. Our key insight is that a population can be regulated at a similar density by disease or at reduced prevalence by a combination of culling and disease. We illustrate our predictions with a system-specific model representing wild boar tuberculosis infection, parameterized for central Spain, and find significant compensation to culling. Given that few wildlife diseases are likely to induce long-lived immunity, populations with virulent diseases may often be resilient to harvesting.

Understanding the role of eco-evolutionary feedbacks in host-parasite coevolution.

It is widely recognised that eco-evolutionary feedbacks can have important implications for evolution. However, many models of host-parasite coevolution omit eco-evolutionary feedbacks for the sake of simplicity, typically by assuming the population sizes of both species are constant. It is often difficult to determine whether the results of these models are qualitatively robust if eco-evolutionary feedbacks are included. Here, by allowing interspecific encounter probabilities to depend on population densities without otherwise varying the structure of the models, we provide a simple method that can test whether eco-evolutionary feedbacks per se affect evolutionary outcomes. Applying this approach to explicit genetic and quantitative trait models from the literature, our framework shows that qualitative changes to the outcome can be directly attributable to eco-evolutionary feedbacks. For example, shifting the dynamics between stable monomorphism or polymorphism and cycling, as well as changing the nature of the cycles. Our approach, which can be readily applied to many different models of host-parasite coevolution, offers a straightforward method for testing whether eco-evolutionary feedbacks qualitatively change coevolutionary outcomes.

Host-parasite fluctuating selection in the absence of specificity.

Fluctuating selection driven by coevolution between hosts and parasites is important for the generation of host and parasite diversity across space and time. Theory has focused primarily on infection genetics, with highly specific 'matching-allele' frameworks more likely to generate fluctuating selection dynamics (FSD) than 'gene-for-gene' (generalist-specialist) frameworks. However, the environment, ecological feedbacks and life-history characteristics may all play a role in determining when FSD occurs. Here, we develop eco-evolutionary models with explicit ecological dynamics to explore the ecological, epidemiological and host life-history drivers of FSD. Our key result is to demonstrate for the first time, to our knowledge, that specificity between hosts and parasites is not required to generate FSD. Furthermore, highly specific host-parasite interactions produce unstable, less robust stochastic fluctuations in contrast to interactions that lack specificity altogether or those that vary from generalist to specialist, which produce predictable limit cycles. Given the ubiquity of ecological feedbacks and the variation in the nature of specificity in host-parasite interactions, our work emphasizes the underestimated potential for host-parasite coevolution to generate fluctuating selection.

The evolution of parasite virulence under targeted culling and harvesting in wildlife and livestock.

There is a clear need to understand the effect of human intervention on the evolution of infectious disease. In particular, culling and harvesting of both wildlife and managed livestock populations are carried out in a wide range of management practices, and they have the potential to impact the evolution of a broad range of disease characteristics. Applying eco-evolutionary theory we show that once culling/harvesting becomes targeted on specific disease classes, the established result that culling selects for higher virulence is only found when sufficient infected individuals are culled. If susceptible or recovered individuals are targeted, selection for lower virulence can occur. An important implication of this result is that when culling to eradicate an infectious disease from a population, while it is optimal to target infected individuals, the consequent evolution can increase the basic reproductive ratio of the infection, R0, and make parasite eradication more difficult. We show that increases in evolved virulence due to the culling of infected individuals can lead to excess population decline when sustainably harvesting a population. In contrast, culling susceptible or recovered individuals can select for decreased virulence and a reduction in population decline through culling. The implications to the evolution of virulence are typically the same in wildlife populations, that are regulated by the parasite, and livestock populations, that have a constant population size where restocking balances the losses due to mortality. However, the well-known result that vertical transmission selects for lower virulence and transmission in wildlife populations is less marked in livestock populations for parasites that convey long-term immunity since restocking can enhance the density of the immune class. Our work emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolutionary consequences of intervention strategies and the different ecological feedbacks that can occur in wildlife and livestock populations.

Emergency powers and the pandemic: Reflecting on state legislative reforms and the future of public health response.

The first 2 years of combatting the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated an unprecedented use of emergency powers. States responded with an equally unprecedented flurry of legislative changes to the legal underpinnings of emergency response and public health authorities. In this article, we provide a brief background on the framework and use of governors and state health officials' emergency powers. We then analyze several key themes, including both the enhancement and restriction of powers, emerging from emergency management and public health legislation introduced in state and territorial legislatures. During the 2020 and 2021 state and territorial legislative sessions, we tracked legislation related to the emergency powers of governors and state health officials. Legislators introduced hundreds of bills impacting these powers, some enhancing and others restricting emergency powers. Enhancements included increasing vaccine access and expanding the pool of eligible medical professions that could administer vaccinations, strengthening public health investigation and enforcement authority for state agencies, and preclusion of local orders by orders at the state level. Restrictions included establishing oversight mechanisms for executive actions, limits on the duration of the emergency, limiting the scope of emergency powers allowed during a declared emergency, and other restraints. By -describing these legislative trends, we hope to inform governors, state health officials, -policymakers, and emergency managers about how changes in the law may impact future public health and emergency response capabilities. Understanding this new legal landscape is critical to effectively preparing for future threats.

The importance of who infects whom: the evolution of diversity in host resistance to infectious disease.

Variation for resistance to infectious disease is ubiquitous and critical to host and parasite evolution and to disease impact, spread and control. However, the processes that generate and maintain this diversity are not understood. We examine how ecological feedbacks generate diversity in host defence focussing on when polymorphism can evolve without co-evolution of the parasite. Our key result is that when there is heritable variation in hosts in both their transmissibility and susceptibility along with costs to resistance, there is the possibility of the evolution of polymorphism. We argue that a wide range of behavioural or physiological mechanisms may lead to relationships between transmissibility and susceptibility that generate diversity. We illustrate this by showing that a tendency for higher contacts between related individuals leads to polymorphism. Only dimorphisms can evolve when infection is determined only by an individuals' susceptibility or when transmissibility and susceptibility are simply positively or negatively correlated.

The implications of immunopathology for parasite evolution.

By definition, parasites harm their hosts, but in many infections much of the pathology is driven by the host immune response rather than through direct damage inflicted by parasites. While these immunopathological effects are often well studied and understood mechanistically in individual disease interactions, there remains relatively little understanding of their broader impact on the evolution of parasites and their hosts. Here, we theoretically investigate the implications of immunopathology, broadly defined as additional mortality associated with the host's immune response, on parasite evolution. In particular, we examine how immunopathology acting on different epidemiological traits (namely transmission, virulence and recovery) affects the evolution of disease severity. When immunopathology is costly to parasites, such that it reduces their fitness, for example by decreasing transmission, there is always selection for increased disease severity. However, we highlight a number of host-parasite interactions where the parasite may benefit from immunopathology, and highlight scenarios that may lead to the evolution of slower growing parasites and potentially reduced disease severity. Importantly, we find that conclusions on disease severity are highly dependent on how severity is measured. Finally, we discuss the effect of treatments used to combat disease symptoms caused by immunopathology.

A Predictive Modeling Approach to Support the Overfill Volume Definition of Liquid-in-Vial Drug Products.

Liquid-in-vial drug products are typically overfilled to meet the label claim volume specification while taking into account losses in the container-closure system and withdrawal device. Any overfill volume setting requires justification. The aim of this study was to estimate the overfill volume required for a liquid drug product in a vial using a prediction model. Glass vials sized from 2R to 20R capacity were filled with sorbitol-based aqueous solutions having a viscosity at 20°C ranging from 1 to 40 mPa·s. Viscosity and vial neck diameter were shown to be the main contributors to the hold-up volume of sorbitol-based aqueous solutions in vial and withdrawal syringe. The hold-up volume of various molecules of therapeutic interest was successfully estimated using a model built from sorbitol-based aqueous solutions data. A total variability approach is proposed for estimating the overfill volume of liquid-in-vial drug products, taking into account the product hold-up volume in vial and withdrawal syringe, the filling variability, and the extractable volume test variability. This prediction model could provide a first guess of the fill volume range to be tested to support overfill volume definition.

Host resistance and coevolution in spatially structured populations.

Natural, agricultural and human populations are structured, with a proportion of interactions occurring locally or within social groups rather than at random. This within-population spatial and social structure is important to the evolution of parasites but little attention has been paid to how spatial structure affects the evolution of host resistance, and as a consequence the coevolutionary outcome. We examine the evolution of resistance across a range of mixing patterns using an approximate mathematical model and stochastic simulations. As reproduction becomes increasingly local, hosts are always selected to increase resistance. More localized transmission also selects for higher resistance, but only if reproduction is also predominantly local. If the hosts disperse, lower resistance evolves as transmission becomes more local. These effects can be understood as a combination of genetic (kin) and ecological structuring on individual fitness. When hosts and parasites coevolve, local interactions select for hosts with high defence and parasites with low transmissibility and virulence. Crucially, this means that more population mixing may lead to the evolution of both fast-transmitting highly virulent parasites and reduced resistance in the host.

Evolutionary behaviour, trade-offs and cyclic and chaotic population dynamics.

Many studies of the evolution of life-history traits assume that the underlying population dynamical attractor is stable point equilibrium. However, evolutionary outcomes can change significantly in different circumstances. We present an analysis based on adaptive dynamics of a discrete-time demographic model involving a trade-off whose shape is also an important determinant of evolutionary behaviour. We derive an explicit expression for the fitness in the cyclic region and consequently present an adaptive dynamic analysis which is algebraic. We do this fully in the region of 2-cycles and (using a symbolic package) almost fully for 4-cycles. Simulations illustrate and verify our results. With equilibrium population dynamics, trade-offs with accelerating costs produce a continuously stable strategy (CSS) whereas trade-offs with decelerating costs produce a non-ES repellor. The transition to 2-cycles produces a discontinuous change: the appearance of an intermediate region in which branching points occur. The size of this region decreases as we move through the region of 2-cycles. There is a further discontinuous fall in the size of the branching region during the transition to 4-cycles. We extend our results numerically and with simulations to higher-period cycles and chaos. Simulations show that chaotic population dynamics can evolve from equilibrium and vice-versa.

Modelling the transmission and persistence of African swine fever in wild boar in contrasting European scenarios.

African swine fever (ASF) is a severe viral disease that is currently spreading among domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in large areas of Eurasia. Wild boar play a key role in the spread of ASF, yet despite their significance, little is known about the key mechanisms that drive infection transmission and disease persistence. A mathematical model of the wild boar ASF system is developed that captures the observed drop in population density, the peak in infected density and the persistence of the virus observed in ASF outbreaks. The model results provide insight into the key processes that drive the ASF dynamics and show that environmental transmission is a key mechanism determining the severity of an infectious outbreak and that direct frequency dependent transmission and transmission from individuals that survive initial ASF infection but eventually succumb to the disease are key for the long-term persistence of the virus. By considering scenarios representative of Estonia and Spain we show that faster degradation of carcasses in Spain, due to elevated temperature and abundant obligate scavengers, may reduce the severity of the infectious outbreak. Our results also suggest that the higher underlying host density and longer breeding season associated with supplementary feeding leads to a more pronounced epidemic outbreak and persistence of the disease in the long-term. The model is used to assess disease control measures and suggests that a combination of culling and infected carcass removal is the most effective method to eradicate the virus without also eradicating the host population, and that early implementation of these control measures will reduce infection levels whilst maintaining a higher host population density and in some situations prevent ASF from establishing in a population.

The implications of coevolutionary dynamics to host-parasite interactions.

Due to the importance of infectious disease, there is a large body of theory on the evolution of either hosts or, more commonly, parasites. Here we present a fully coevolutionary model of a host-parasite system that includes ecological dynamics that feed back into the coevolutionary outcome, and we show that highly virulent parasites may evolve due to the coevolutionary process. Parasite evolution is very sensitive to evolution in the host, and virulence fluctuates substantially when mutation rates vary between host and parasite. Evolutionary branching in the host leads to parasites increasing their virulence, and small changes in host resistance drive large changes in parasite virulence. Evolutionary branching in one species does not cause branching in the other. Our work emphasizes the importance of considering coevolutionary dynamics and shows that certain highly virulent parasites may result from responses to host evolution.

CD56dim CD16- Natural Killer Cell Profiling in Melanoma Patients Receiving a Cancer Vaccine and Interferon-α.

Natural killer (NK) cells are innate cytotoxic and immunoregulatory lymphocytes that have a central role in anti-tumor immunity and play a critical role in mediating cellular immunity in advanced cancer immunotherapies, such as dendritic cell (DC) vaccines. Our group recently tested a novel recombinant adenovirus-transduced autologous DC-based vaccine that simultaneously induces T cell responses against three melanoma-associated antigens for advanced melanoma patients. Here, we examine the impact of this vaccine as well as the subsequent systemic delivery of high-dose interferon-α2b (HDI) on the circulatory NK cell profile in melanoma patients. At baseline, patient NK cells, particularly those isolated from high-risk patients with no measurable disease, showed altered distribution of CD56dim CD16+ and CD56dim CD16- NK cell subsets, as well as elevated serum levels of immune suppressive MICA, TN5E/CD73 and tactile/CD96, and perforin. Surprisingly, patient NK cells displayed a higher level of activation than those from healthy donors as measured by elevated CD69, NKp44 and CCR7 levels, and enhanced K562 killing. Elevated cytolytic ability strongly correlated with increased representation of CD56dim CD16+ NK cells and amplified CD69 expression on CD56dim CD16+ NK cells. While intradermal DC immunizations did not significantly impact circulatory NK cell activation and distribution profiles, subsequent HDI injections enhanced CD56bright CD16- NK cell numbers when compared to patients that did not receive HDI. Phenotypic analysis of tumor-infiltrating NK cells showed that CD56dim CD16- NK cells are the dominant subset in melanoma tumors. NanoString transcriptomic analysis of melanomas resected at baseline indicated that there was a trend of increased CD56dim NK cell gene signature expression in patients with better clinical response. These data indicate that melanoma patient blood NK cells display elevated activation levels, that intra-dermal DC immunizations did not effectively promote systemic NK cell responses, that systemic HDI administration can modulate NK cell subset distributions and suggest that CD56dim CD16- NK cells are a unique non-cytolytic subset in melanoma patients that may associate with better patient outcome.

Identification of Selective Acyl Sulfonamide-Cycloalkylether Inhibitors of the Voltage-Gated Sodium Channel (NaV) 1.7 with Potent Analgesic Activity.

Herein, we report the discovery and optimization of a series of orally bioavailable acyl sulfonamide NaV1.7 inhibitors that are selective for NaV1.7 over NaV1.5 and highly efficacious in in vivo models of pain and hNaV1.7 target engagement. An analysis of the physicochemical properties of literature NaV1.7 inhibitors suggested that acyl sulfonamides with high fsp3 could overcome some of the pharmacokinetic (PK) and efficacy challenges seen with existing series. Parallel library syntheses lead to the identification of analogue 7, which exhibited moderate potency against NaV1.7 and an acceptable PK profile in rodents, but relatively poor stability in human liver microsomes. Further, design strategy then focused on the optimization of potency against hNaV1.7 and improvement of human metabolic stability, utilizing induced fit docking in our previously disclosed X-ray cocrystal of the NaV1.7 voltage sensing domain. These investigations culminated in the discovery of tool compound 33, one of the most potent and efficacious NaV1.7 inhibitors reported to date.