Immune selection suppresses the emergence of drug resistance in malaria parasites but facilitates its spread.

Although drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum typically evolves in regions of low transmission, resistance spreads readily following introduction to regions with a heavier disease burden. This suggests that the origin and the spread of resistance are governed by different processes, and that high transmission intensity specifically impedes the origin. Factors associated with high transmission, such as highly immune hosts and competition within genetically diverse infections, are associated with suppression of resistant lineages within hosts. However, interactions between these factors have rarely been investigated and the specific relationship between adaptive immunity and selection for resistance has not been explored. Here, we developed a multiscale, agent-based model of Plasmodium parasites, hosts, and vectors to examine how host and parasite dynamics shape the evolution of resistance in populations with different transmission intensities. We found that selection for antigenic novelty ("immune selection") suppressed the evolution of resistance in high transmission settings. We show that high levels of population immunity increased the strength of immune selection relative to selection for resistance. As a result, immune selection delayed the evolution of resistance in high transmission populations by allowing novel, sensitive lineages to remain in circulation at the expense of the spread of a resistant lineage. In contrast, in low transmission settings, we observed that resistant strains were able to sweep to high population prevalence without interference. Additionally, we found that the relationship between immune selection and resistance changed when resistance was widespread. Once resistance was common enough to be found on many antigenic backgrounds, immune selection stably maintained resistant parasites in the population by allowing them to proliferate, even in untreated hosts, when resistance was linked to a novel epitope. Our results suggest that immune selection plays a role in the global pattern of resistance evolution.

Identifying the genetic basis of viral spillover using Lassa virus as a test case.

The rate at which zoonotic viruses spill over into the human population varies significantly over space and time. Remarkably, we do not yet know how much of this variation is attributable to genetic variation within viral populations. This gap in understanding arises because we lack methods of genetic analysis that can be easily applied to zoonotic viruses, where the number of available viral sequences is often limited, and opportunistic sampling introduces significant population stratification. Here, we explore the feasibility of using patterns of shared ancestry to correct for population stratification, enabling genome-wide association methods to identify genetic substitutions associated with spillover into the human population. Using a combination of phylogenetically structured simulations and Lassa virus sequences collected from humans and rodents in Sierra Leone, we demonstrate that existing methods do not fully correct for stratification, leading to elevated error rates. We also demonstrate, however, that the Type I error rate can be substantially reduced by confining the analysis to a less-stratified region of the phylogeny, even in an already-small dataset. Using this method, we detect two candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with spillover in the Lassa virus polymerase gene and provide generalized recommendations for the collection and analysis of zoonotic viruses.

Population structure promotes the evolution of costly sex in artificial gene networks.

We build on previous observations that Hill-Robertson interference generates an advantage of sex that, in structured populations, can be large enough to explain the evolutionary maintenance of costly sex. We employed a gene network model that explicitly incorporates interactions between genes. Mutations in the gene networks have variable effects that depend on the genetic background in which they appear. Consequently, our simulations include two costs of sex-recombination and migration loads-that were missing from previous studies of the evolution of costly sex. Our results suggest a critical role for population structure that lies in its ability to align the long- and short-term advantages of sex. We show that the addition of population structure favored the evolution of sex by disproportionately decreasing the equilibrium mean fitness of asexual populations, primarily by increasing the strength of Muller's Ratchet. Population structure also increased the ability of the short-term advantage of sex to counter the primary limit to the evolution of sex in the gene network model-recombination load. On the other hand, highly structured populations experienced migration load in the form of Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibilities, decreasing the effective rate of migration between demes and, consequently, accelerating the accumulation of drift load in the sexual populations.

An Evolving Genetic Architecture Interacts with Hill-Robertson Interference to Determine the Benefit of Sex.

Sex is ubiquitous in the natural world, but the nature of its benefits remains controversial. Previous studies have suggested that a major advantage of sex is its ability to eliminate interference between selection on linked mutations, a phenomenon known as Hill-Robertson interference. However, those studies may have missed both important advantages and important disadvantages of sexual reproduction because they did not allow the distributions of mutational effects and interactions (i.e., the genetic architecture) to evolve. Here we investigate how Hill-Robertson interference interacts with an evolving genetic architecture to affect the evolutionary origin and maintenance of sex by simulating evolution in populations of artificial gene networks. We observed a long-term advantage of sex-equilibrium mean fitness of sexual populations exceeded that of asexual populations-that did not depend on population size. We also observed a short-term advantage of sex-sexual modifier mutations readily invaded asexual populations-that increased with population size, as was observed in previous studies. We show that the long- and short-term advantages of sex were both determined by differences between sexual and asexual populations in the evolutionary dynamics of two properties of the genetic architecture: the deleterious mutation rate ([Formula: see text]) and recombination load ([Formula: see text]). These differences resulted from a combination of selection to minimize [Formula: see text] which is experienced only by sexuals, and Hill-Robertson interference experienced primarily by asexuals. In contrast to the previous studies, in which Hill-Robertson interference had only a direct impact on the fitness advantages of sex, the impact of Hill-Robertson interference in our simulations was mediated additionally by an indirect impact on the efficiency with which selection acted to reduce [Formula: see text].