The episodic resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 virus.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 activity has intensified globally since 2021, increasingly causing mass mortality in wild birds and poultry and incidental infections in mammals1-3. However, the ecological and virological properties that underscore future mitigation strategies still remain unclear. Using epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches, we demonstrate changes in the origins of resurgent HPAI H5 and reveal significant shifts in virus ecology and evolution. Outbreak data show key resurgent events in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, contributing to the emergence and panzootic spread of H5N1 in 2021-2022. Genomic analysis reveals that the 2016-2017 epizootics originated in Asia, where HPAI H5 reservoirs are endemic. In 2020-2021, 2.3.4.4b H5N8 viruses emerged in African poultry, featuring mutations altering HA structure and receptor binding. In 2021-2022, a new H5N1 virus evolved through reassortment in wild birds in Europe, undergoing further reassortment with low-pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic birds during global dissemination. These results highlight a shift in the HPAI H5 epicentre beyond Asia and indicate that increasing persistence of HPAI H5 in wild birds is facilitating geographic and host range expansion, accelerating dispersion velocity and increasing reassortment potential. As earlier outbreaks of H5N1 and H5N8 were caused by more stable genomic constellations, these recent changes reflect adaptation across the domestic-bird-wild-bird interface. Elimination strategies in domestic birds therefore remain a high priority to limit future epizootics.

Australia as a global sink for the genetic diversity of avian influenza A virus.

Most of our understanding of the ecology and evolution of avian influenza A virus (AIV) in wild birds is derived from studies conducted in the northern hemisphere on waterfowl, with a substantial bias towards dabbling ducks. However, relevant environmental conditions and patterns of avian migration and reproduction are substantially different in the southern hemisphere. Through the sequencing and analysis of 333 unique AIV genomes collected from wild birds collected over 15 years we show that Australia is a global sink for AIV diversity and not integrally linked with the Eurasian gene pool. Rather, AIV are infrequently introduced to Australia, followed by decades of isolated circulation and eventual extinction. The number of co-circulating viral lineages varies per subtype. AIV haemagglutinin (HA) subtypes that are rarely identified at duck-centric study sites (H8-12) had more detected introductions and contemporary co-circulating lineages in Australia. Combined with a lack of duck migration beyond the Australian-Papuan region, these findings suggest introductions by long-distance migratory shorebirds. In addition, on the available data we found no evidence of directional or consistent patterns in virus movement across the Australian continent. This feature corresponds to patterns of bird movement, whereby waterfowl have nomadic and erratic rainfall-dependant distributions rather than consistent intra-continental migratory routes. Finally, we detected high levels of virus gene segment reassortment, with a high diversity of AIV genome constellations across years and locations. These data, in addition to those from other studies in Africa and South America, clearly show that patterns of AIV dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere are distinct from those in the temperate north.

How accurately can we assess zoonotic risk?

Identifying the animal reservoirs from which zoonotic viruses will likely emerge is central to understanding the determinants of disease emergence. Accordingly, there has been an increase in studies attempting zoonotic "risk assessment." Herein, we demonstrate that the virological data on which these analyses are conducted are incomplete, biased, and rapidly changing with ongoing virus discovery. Together, these shortcomings suggest that attempts to assess zoonotic risk using available virological data are likely to be inaccurate and largely only identify those host taxa that have been studied most extensively. We suggest that virus surveillance at the human-animal interface may be more productive.

An oseltamivir-resistant avian H1N1 influenza A virus can transmit from mallards to chickens similarly to a wild-type strain: implications for the risk of resistance transmission to humans.

The neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) oseltamivir is stockpiled globally as part of influenza pandemic preparedness. However, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) resistance develops in avian influenza virus (AIV) infecting mallards exposed to environmental-like OC concentrations, suggesting that environmental resistance is a real concern. Herein we used an in vivo model to investigate if avian influenza H1N1 with the OC-resistant mutation NA-H274Y (51833/H274Y) as compared to the wild-type (wt) strain (51833 /wt) could transmit from mallards, which would potentially be exposed to environmentally contaminated environments, to and between chickens, thus posing a potential zoonotic risk of antiviral-resistant AIV. Regardless of whether the virus had the OC-resistant mutation or not, chickens became infected both through experimental infection, and following exposure to infected mallards. We found similar infection patterns between 51833/wt and 51833/H274Y such that, one chicken inoculated with 51833/wt and three chickens inoculated with 51833/H274Y were AIV positive in oropharyngeal samples more than 2 days consecutively, indicating true infection, and one contact chicken exposed to infected mallards was AIV positive in faecal samples for 3 consecutive days (51833/wt) and another contact chicken for 4 consecutive days (51833/H274Y). Importantly, all positive samples from chickens infected with 51833/H274Y retained the NA-H274Y mutation. However, none of the virus strains established sustained transmission in chickens, likely due to insufficient adaptation to the chicken host. Our results demonstrate that an OC-resistant avian influenza virus can transmit from mallards and replicate in chickens. NA-H274Y does not constitute a barrier to interspecies transmission per se, as the resistant virus did not show reduced replicative capacity compared to the wild-type counterpart. Thus, responsible use of oseltamivir and surveillance for resistance development is warranted to limit the risk of an OC-resistant pandemic strain.

Strong host phylogenetic and ecological effects on host competency for avian influenza in Australian wild birds.

Host susceptibility to parasites is mediated by intrinsic and external factors such as genetics, ecology, age and season. While waterfowl are considered central to the reservoir community for low pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (LPAIV), the role of host phylogeny has received limited formal attention. Herein, we analysed 12 339 oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs and 10 826 serum samples collected over 11 years from wild birds in Australia. As well as describing age and species-level differences in prevalence and seroprevalence, we reveal that host phylogeny is a key driver in host range. Seasonality effects appear less pronounced than in the Northern Hemisphere, while annual variations are potentially linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our study provides a uniquely detailed insight into the evolutionary ecology of LPAIV in its avian reservoir community, defining distinctive processes on the continent of Australia and expanding our understanding of LPAIV globally.

Winter is coming-The role of seasonality through the lens of the rodent virome.

Rodent virus communities (viromes) are overrepresented with zoonotic viruses, and as such are a key host system for the study of zoonotic viruses. However, the extent of viral diversity beyond characterized zoonotic viruses, and the factors that modulate the viromes of rodents remain opaque. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Raghwani et al. (2023) use rodents as a model to understand the role of seasonality in dictating virome abundance and composition-a factor known to play an important role in most animal one-host, one-pathogen systems. These data are not only highly relevant to rodents, but have broad applications across understanding and disentangling animal virome ecology.

Influenza A/H4N2 mallard infection experiments further indicate zanamivir as less prone to induce environmental resistance development than oseltamivir.

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) are the gold standard treatment for influenza A virus (IAV). Oseltamivir is mostly used, followed by zanamivir (ZA). NAIs are not readily degraded in conventional wastewater treatment plants and can be detected in aquatic environments. Waterfowl are natural IAV hosts and replicating IAVs could thus be exposed to NAIs in the environment and develop resistance. Avian IAVs form the genetic basis for new human IAVs, and a resistant IAV with pandemic potential poses a serious public health threat, as NAIs constitute a pandemic preparedness cornerstone. Resistance development in waterfowl IAVs exposed to NAIs in the water environment has previously been investigated in an in vivo mallard model and resistance development was demonstrated in several avian IAVs after the exposure of infected ducks to oseltamivir, and in an H1N1 IAV after exposure to ZA. The N1 and N2 types of IAVs have different characteristics and resistance mutations, and so the present study investigated the exposure of an N2-type IAV (H4N2) in infected mallards to 1, 10 and 100 µg l-1 of ZA in the water environment. Two neuraminidase substitutions emerged, H274N (ZA IC50 increased 5.5-fold) and E119G (ZA IC50 increased 110-fold) at 10 and 100 µg l-1 of ZA, respectively. Reversion towards wild-type was observed for both substitutions in experiments with removed drug pressure, indicating reduced fitness of both resistant viruses. These results corroborate previous findings that the development of resistance to ZA in the environment seems less likely to occur than the development of resistance to oseltamivir, adding information that is useful in planning for prudent drug use and pandemic preparedness.

Antarctic Penguins as Reservoirs of Diversity for Avian Avulaviruses.

Wild birds harbor a huge diversity of avian avulaviruses (formerly avian paramyxoviruses). Antarctic penguin species have been screened for avian avulaviruses since the 1980s and, as such, are known hosts of these viruses. In this study, we screened three penguin species from the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula for avian avulaviruses. We show that Adelie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) are hosts for four different avian avulavirus species, the recently described avian avulaviruses 17 to 19 and avian avulavirus 10-like, never before isolated in Antarctica. A total of 24 viruses were isolated and sequenced; avian avulavirus 17 was the most common, and phylogenetic analysis demonstrated patterns of occurrence, with different genetic clusters corresponding to penguin age and location. Following infection in specific-pathogen-free (SPF) chickens, all four avian avulavirus species were shed from the oral cavity for up to 7 days postinfection. There was limited shedding from the cloaca in a proportion of infected chickens, and all but one bird seroconverted by day 21. No clinical signs were observed. Taken together, we propose that penguin species, including Antarctic penguins, may be the central reservoir for a diversity of avian avulavirus species and that these viruses have the potential to infect other avian hosts.IMPORTANCE Approximately 99% of all viruses are still to be described, and in our changing world, any one of these unknown viruses could potentially expand their host range and cause epidemic disease in wildlife, agricultural animals, or humans. Avian avulavirus 1 causes outbreaks in wild birds and poultry and is thus well described. However, for many avulavirus species, only a single specimen has been described, and their viral ecology and epidemiology are unknown. Through the detection of avian avulaviruses in penguins from Antarctica, we have been able to expand upon our understanding of three avian avulavirus species (avian avulaviruses 17 to 19) and report a potentially novel avulavirus species. Importantly, we show that penguins appear to play a key role in the epidemiology of avian avulaviruses, and we encourage additional sampling of this avian group.

Unravelling virus community ecology in bats through the integration of metagenomics and community ecology.

The spillover of viruses from wildlife into agricultural animals or humans has profound socioeconomic and public health impact. Vampire bats, found throughout South America, feed directly on humans and other animals and are an important reservoir for zoonotic viruses, including rabies virus. This has resulted in considerable effort in understanding both the ecology of bat-borne viruses and the composition and associated correlates of the structure of entire virus communities in wildlife, particularly in the context of disease control interventions. In a From the Cover article in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Bergner et al. (2019) set out to reveal virus community dynamics in vampire bats by interrogating factors that affect the structure, diversity and richness of these communities. Due to the linkage of metagenomic sequence data with community ecology, this study represents an important advance in the field of virus ecology.

Meta-transcriptomics reveals a diverse antibiotic resistance gene pool in avian microbiomes.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is rendering common bacterial infections untreatable. Wildlife can incorporate and disperse antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the environment, such as water systems, which in turn serve as reservoirs of resistance genes for human pathogens. Anthropogenic activity may contribute to the spread of bacterial resistance cycling through natural environments, including through the release of human waste, as sewage treatment only partially removes antibiotic-resistant bacteria. However, empirical data supporting these effects are currently limited. Here we used bulk RNA-sequencing (meta-transcriptomics) to assess the diversity and expression levels of functionally viable resistance genes in the gut microbiome of birds with aquatic habits in diverse locations. RESULTS: We found antibiotic resistance genes in birds from all localities, from penguins in Antarctica to ducks in a wastewater treatment plant in Australia. Comparative analysis revealed that birds feeding at the wastewater treatment plant carried the greatest resistance gene burden, including genes typically associated with multidrug resistance plasmids as the aac(6)-Ib-cr gene. Differences in resistance gene burden also reflected aspects of bird ecology, taxonomy, and microbial function. Notably, ducks, which feed by dabbling, carried a higher abundance and diversity of resistance genes than turnstones, avocets, and penguins, which usually prey on more pristine waters. CONCLUSIONS: These transcriptome data suggest that human waste, even if it undergoes treatment, might contribute to the spread of antibiotic resistance genes to the wild. Differences in microbiome functioning across different bird lineages may also play a role in the antibiotic resistance burden carried by wild birds. In summary, we reveal the complex factors explaining the distribution of resistance genes and their exchange routes between humans and wildlife, and show that meta-transcriptomics is a valuable tool to access functional resistance genes in whole microbial communities.

Serologic Evidence of Exposure to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 Viruses in Migratory Shorebirds, Australia.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx viruses of the goose/Guangdong/96 lineage continue to cause outbreaks in poultry and wild birds globally. Shorebirds, known reservoirs of avian influenza viruses, migrate from Siberia to Australia along the East-Asian-Australasian Flyway. We examined whether migrating shorebirds spending nonbreeding seasons in Australia were exposed to HPAI H5 viruses. We compared those findings with those for a resident duck species. We screened >1,500 blood samples for nucleoprotein antibodies and tested positive samples for specific antibodies against 7 HPAI H5 virus antigens and 2 low pathogenicity avian influenza H5 virus antigens. We demonstrated the presence of hemagglutinin inhibitory antibodies against HPAI H5 virus clade 2.3.4.4 in the red-necked stint (Calidris ruficolis). We did not find hemagglutinin inhibitory antibodies in resident Pacific black ducks (Anas superciliosa). Our study highlights the potential role of long-distance migratory shorebirds in intercontinental spread of HPAI H5 viruses.

Virus-virus interactions and host ecology are associated with RNA virome structure in wild birds.

Little is known about the factors that shape the ecology of RNA viruses in nature. Wild birds are an important case in point, as other than influenza A virus, avian samples are rarely tested for viruses, especially in the absence of overt disease. Using bulk RNA-sequencing ("meta-transcriptomics"), we revealed the viral diversity present in Australian wild birds through the lens of the ecological factors that may determine virome structure and abundance. A meta-transcriptomic analysis of four Anseriformes (waterfowl) and Charadriiformes (shorebird) species sampled in temperate and arid Australia revealed the presence of 27 RNA virus genomes, 18 of which represent newly described species. The viruses identified included a previously described gammacoronavirus and influenza A viruses. Additionally, we identified novel virus species from the families Astroviridae, Caliciviridae, Reoviridae, Rhabdoviridae, Picobirnaviridae and Picornaviridae. We noted differences in virome structure that reflected underlying differences in location and influenza A infection status. Red-necked Avocets (Recurvirostra novaehollandiae) from Australia's arid interior possessed the greatest viral diversity and abundance, markedly higher than individuals sampled in temperate Australia. In Ruddy Turnstones (Arenaria interpres) and dabbling ducks (Anas spp.), viral abundance and diversity were higher and more similar in hosts that were positive for influenza A infection compared to those that were negative for this virus, despite samples being collected on the same day and from the same location. This study highlights the extent and diversity of RNA viruses in wild birds and lays the foundation for understanding the factors that determine virome structure in wild populations.

Alternate routes of influenza A virus infection in Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos).

The natural reservoir for all influenza A viruses (IAVs) is wild birds, particularly dabbling ducks. During the autumn, viral prevalence can be very high in dabbling ducks (> 30%) in the Northern Hemisphere, and individuals may be repeatedly infected. Transmission and infection is through the fecal-oral route, whereby birds shed viruses in feces and conspecifics are infected though feeding in virus-contaminated water. In this study we wanted to assess two alternative infection routes: cloacal drinking and preening. Using experimental infections, we assessed patterns of infection using a combination of virus shedding, as assessed by real-time PCR from cloacal swabs, and patterns of viral replication using virus-immunohistochemistry of gastrointestinal tissues. The cloacal drinking experiment consisted of two trials using cloacal inoculation at two different time points to account for age differences, as well as a trial whereby ducks were allowed to take up virus-laden water through the cloaca. All ducks became infected, and rather than the bursa of Fabricius being the main site of replication, the colon had the highest intensity of replication, as inferred through immunohistochemistry. In experiments assessing preening, feathers were contaminated with virus-laden water and all ducks became infected, regardless of whether they were kept individually or together. Further, naive contacts were infected by the individuals whose feathers were virus-contaminated. Overall, we reinforce that IAV transmission in dabbling ducks is multifactorial-if exposed to virus-contaminated water ducks may be infected through dabbling, preening of infected feathers, and cloacal drinking.

In vivo mallard experiments indicate that zanamivir has less potential for environmental influenza A virus resistance development than oseltamivir.

Neuraminidase inhibitors are a cornerstone of influenza pandemic preparedness before vaccines can be mass-produced and thus a neuraminidase inhibitor-resistant pandemic is a serious threat to public health. Earlier work has demonstrated the potential for development and persistence of oseltamivir resistance in influenza A viruses exposed to environmentally relevant water concentrations of the drug when infecting mallards, the natural influenza reservoir that serves as the genetic base for human pandemics. As zanamivir is the major second-line neuraminidase inhibitor treatment, this study aimed to assess the potential for development and persistence of zanamivir resistance in an in vivo mallard model; especially important as zanamivir will probably be increasingly used. Our results indicate less potential for development and persistence of resistance due to zanamivir than oseltamivir in an environmental setting. This conclusion is based on: (1) the lower increase in zanamivir IC50 conferred by the mutations caused by zanamivir exposure (2-17-fold); (2) the higher zanamivir water concentration needed to induce resistance (at least 10 µg l-1); (3) the lack of zanamivir resistance persistence without drug pressure; and (4) the multiple resistance-related substitutions seen during zanamivir exposure (V116A, A138V, R152K, T157I and D199G) suggesting lack of one straight-forward evolutionary path to resistance. Our study also adds further evidence regarding the stability of the oseltamivir-induced substitution H275Y without drug pressure, and demonstrates the ability of a H275Y-carrying virus to acquire secondary mutations, further boosting oseltamivir resistance when exposed to zanamivir. Similar studies using influenza A viruses of the N2-phylogenetic group of neuraminidases are recommended.

Influenza A(H7N9) virus acquires resistance-related neuraminidase I222T substitution when infected mallards are exposed to low levels of oseltamivir in water.

Influenza A virus (IAV) has its natural reservoir in wild waterfowl, and new human IAVs often contain gene segments originating from avian IAVs. Treatment options for severe human influenza are principally restricted to neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), among which oseltamivir is stockpiled in preparedness for influenza pandemics. There is evolutionary pressure in the environment for resistance development to oseltamivir in avian IAVs, as the active metabolite oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) passes largely undegraded through sewage treatment to river water where waterfowl reside. In an in vivo mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) model, we tested if low-pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N9) virus might become resistant if the host was exposed to low levels of OC. Ducks were experimentally infected, and OC was added to their water, after which infection and transmission were maintained by successive introductions of uninfected birds. Daily fecal samples were tested for IAV excretion, genotype, and phenotype. Following mallard exposure to 2.5 µg/liter OC, the resistance-related neuraminidase (NA) I222T substitution, was detected within 2 days during the first passage and was found in all viruses sequenced from subsequently introduced ducks. The substitution generated 8-fold and 2.4-fold increases in the 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) for OC (P < 0.001) and zanamivir (P = 0.016), respectively. We conclude that OC exposure of IAV hosts, in the same concentration magnitude as found in the environment, may result in amino acid substitutions, leading to changed antiviral sensitivity in an IAV subtype that can be highly pathogenic to humans. Prudent use of oseltamivir and resistance surveillance of IAVs in wild birds are warranted.

Long-term variation in influenza A virus prevalence and subtype diversity in migratory mallards in northern Europe.

Data on long-term circulation of pathogens in wildlife populations are seldom collected, and hence understanding of spatial-temporal variation in prevalence and genotypes is limited. Here, we analysed a long-term surveillance series on influenza A virus (IAV) in mallards collected at an important migratory stopover site from 2002 to 2010, and characterized seasonal dynamics in virus prevalence and subtype diversity. Prevalence dynamics were influenced by year, but retained a common pattern for all years whereby prevalence was low in spring and summer, but increased in early autumn with a first peak in August, and a second more pronounced peak during October-November. A total of 74 haemagglutinin (HA)/neuraminidase (NA) combinations were isolated, including all NA and most HA (H1-H12) subtypes. The most common subtype combinations were H4N6, H1N1, H2N3, H5N2, H6N2 and H11N9, and showed a clear linkage between specific HA and NA subtypes. Furthermore, there was a temporal structuring of subtypes within seasons based on HA phylogenetic relatedness. Dissimilar HA subtypes tended to have different temporal occurrence within seasons, where the subtypes that dominated in early autumn were rare in late autumn, and vice versa. This suggests that build-up of herd immunity affected IAV dynamics in this system.

Infected or not: are PCR-positive oropharyngeal swabs indicative of low pathogenic influenza A virus infection in the respiratory tract of Mallard Anas platyrhynchos?

Detection of influenza virus in oropharyngeal swabs collected during wild bird surveillance is assumed to represent respiratory infection, although intestine is the main site of infection. We tested this assumption by histological examination of the respiratory tract of wild Mallards with virus-positive oropharyngeal swabs. Thirty-two of 125 Mallards tested had viral-RNA positive oropharyngeal swabs. The respiratory tracts of four Mallards with the most virus were examined in detail by immunohistochemistry. None had detectable virus antigen in the respiratory tract, suggesting it was not infected. An alternative explanation is that the oropharynx was contaminated with virus through feeding in surface water or through preening.

The diverse liver viromes of Australian geckos and skinks are dominated by hepaciviruses and picornaviruses and reflect host taxonomy and habitat.

Lizards have diverse ecologies and evolutionary histories, and represent a promising group to explore how hosts shape virome structure and virus evolution. Yet, little is known about the viromes of these animals. In Australia, squamates (lizards and snakes) comprise the most diverse order of vertebrates, and Australia hosts the highest diversity of lizards globally, with the greatest breadth of habitat use. We used meta-transcriptomic sequencing to determine the virome of nine co-distributed, tropical lizard species from three taxonomic families in Australia and analyzed these data to identify host traits associated with viral abundance and diversity. We show that lizards carry a large diversity of viruses, identifying more than thirty novel, highly divergent vertebrate-associated viruses. These viruses were from nine viral families, including several that contain well known pathogens, such as the Flaviviridae, Picornaviridae, Bornaviridae, Iridoviridae, and Rhabdoviridae. Members of the Flaviviridae were particularly abundant across species sampled here, largely belonging to the genus Hepacivirus: fourteen novel hepaciviruses were identified, broadening the known diversity of this group and better defining its evolution by uncovering new reptilian clades. The evolutionary histories of the viruses studied here frequently aligned with the biogeographic and phylogenetic histories of the hosts, indicating that exogenous viruses may help infer host evolutionary history if sampling is strategic and sampling density high enough. Notably, analysis of alpha and beta diversity revealed that virome composition and richness in the animals sampled here was shaped by host taxonomy and habitat. In sum, we identified a diverse range of reptile viruses that broadly contributes to our understanding of virus-host ecology and evolution.

Detection and phylogenetic analysis of contemporary H14N2 Avian influenza A virus in domestic ducks in Southeast Asia (Cambodia).

Avian influenza virus (AIV) in Asia is a complex system with numerous subtypes and a highly porous wild birds-poultry interface. Certain AIV subtypes, such as H14, are underrepresented in current surveillance efforts, leaving gaps in our understanding of their ecology and evolution. The detection of rare subtype H14 in domestic ducks in Southeast Asia comprises a geographic region and domestic bird population previously unassociated with this subtype. These H14 viruses have a complex evolutionary history involving gene reassortment events. They share sequence similarity to AIVs endemic in Cambodian ducks, and Eurasian low pathogenicity and high pathogenicity H5Nx AIVs. The detection of these H14 viruses in Southeast Asian domestic poultry further advances our knowledge of the ecology and evolution of this subtype and reinforces the need for continued, longitudinal, active surveillance in domestic and wild birds. Additionally, in vivo and in vitro risk assessment should encompass rare AIV subtypes, as they have the potential to establish in poultry systems.

Immune imprinting in early life shapes cross-reactivity to influenza B virus haemagglutinin.

Influenza exposures early in life are believed to shape future susceptibility to influenza infections by imprinting immunological biases that affect cross-reactivity to future influenza viruses. However, direct serological evidence linked to susceptibility is limited. Here we analysed haemagglutination-inhibition titres in 1,451 cross-sectional samples collected between 1992 and 2020, from individuals born between 1917 and 2008, against influenza B virus (IBV) isolates from 1940 to 2021. We included testing of 'future' isolates that circulated after sample collection. We show that immunological biases are conferred by early life IBV infection and result in lineage-specific cross-reactivity of a birth cohort towards future IBV isolates. This translates into differential estimates of susceptibility between birth cohorts towards the B/Yamagata and B/Victoria lineages, predicting lineage-specific birth-cohort distributions of observed medically attended IBV infections. Our data suggest that immunological measurements of imprinting could be important in modelling and predicting virus epidemiology.