Radiomics analysis to predict pulmonary nodule malignancy using machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose CT screening can reduce lung cancer-related mortality. However, most screen-detected pulmonary abnormalities do not develop into cancer and it often remains challenging to identify malignant nodules, particularly among indeterminate nodules. We aimed to develop and assess prediction models based on radiological features to discriminate between benign and malignant pulmonary lesions detected on a baseline screen. METHODS: Using four international lung cancer screening studies, we extracted 2060 radiomic features for each of 16 797 nodules (513 malignant) among 6865 participants. After filtering out low-quality radiomic features, 642 radiomic and 9 epidemiological features remained for model development. We used cross-validation and grid search to assess three machine learning (ML) models (eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees, random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)) for their ability to accurately predict risk of malignancy for pulmonary nodules. We report model performance based on the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration metrics in the held-out test set. RESULTS: The LASSO model yielded the best predictive performance in cross-validation and was fit in the full training set based on optimised hyperparameters. Our radiomics model had a test-set AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) and outperformed the established Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer model (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.89) for nodule assessment. Our model performed well among both solid (AUC 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.97) and subsolid nodules (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: We developed highly accurate ML models based on radiomic and epidemiological features from four international lung cancer screening studies that may be suitable for assessing indeterminate screen-detected pulmonary nodules for risk of malignancy.

Re-scaling and small area estimation of behavioral risk survey guided by social vulnerability data.

BACKGROUND: Local governments and other public health entities often need population health measures at the county or subcounty level for activities such as resource allocation and targeting public health interventions, among others. Information collected via national surveys alone cannot fill these needs. We propose a novel, two-step method for rescaling health survey data and creating small area estimates (SAEs) of smoking rates using a Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey administered in 2015 to participants living in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA. METHODS: The first step consisted of a spatial microsimulation to rescale location of survey respondents from zip codes to tracts based on census population distributions by age, sex, race, and education. The rescaling allowed us, in the second step, to utilize available census tract-specific ancillary data on social vulnerability for small area estimation of local health risk using an area-level version of a logistic linear mixed model. To demonstrate this new two-step algorithm, we estimated the ever-smoking rate for the census tracts of Allegheny County. RESULTS: The ever-smoking rate was above 70% for two census tracts to the southeast of the city of Pittsburgh. Several tracts in the southern and eastern sections of Pittsburgh also had relatively high (> 65%) ever-smoking rates. CONCLUSIONS: These SAEs may be used in local public health efforts to target interventions and educational resources aimed at reducing cigarette smoking. Further, our new two-step methodology may be extended to small area estimation for other locations and health outcomes.

Early natural menopause is associated with poor lung health and increased mortality among female smokers.

BACKGROUND: Early natural menopause has been regarded as a biomarker of reproductive and somatic aging. Cigarette smoking is the most harmful factor for lung health and also an established risk factor for early menopause. Understanding the effect of early menopause on health outcomes in middle-aged and older female smokers is important to develop preventive strategies. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the associations of early menopause with multiple lung health and aging biomarkers, lung cancer risk, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in postmenopausal women who were moderate or heavy smokers. STUDY DESIGN: This study was conducted on postmenopausal women with natural (n=1038) or surgical (n=628) menopause from the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study. The Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study is a community-based research cohort of current and former smokers, screened with low-dose computed tomography and followed up for lung cancer. Early menopause was defined as occurring before 45 years of age. The analyses were stratified by menopause types because of the different biological and medical causes of natural and surgical menopause. Statistical methods included linear model, generalized linear model, linear mixed-effects model, and time-to-event analysis. RESULTS: The average age of the 1666 female smokers was 59.4±6.7 years, with 1519 (91.2%) of the population as non-Hispanic Whites and 1064 (63.9%) of the population as current smokers at baseline. Overall, 646 (39%) women reported early menopause, including 198 (19.1%) women with natural menopause and 448 (71.3%) women with surgical menopause (P<.001). Demographic variables did not differ between early and nonearly menopause groups, regardless of menopause type. Significant associations were identified between early natural menopause and higher risk of wheezing (odds ratio, 1.65; P<.01), chronic bronchitis (odds ratio, 1.73; P<.01), and radiographic emphysema (odds ratio, 1.70; P<.001) and lower baseline lung spirometry in an obstructive pattern (-104.8 mL/s for forced expiratory volume in the first second with P<.01, -78.6 mL for forced vital capacity with P=.04, and -2.1% for forced expiratory volume in the first second-to-forced vital capacity ratio with P=.01). In addition, early natural menopause was associated with a more rapid decline of forced expiratory volume in the first second-to-forced vital capacity ratio (-0.16% per year; P=.01) and incident airway obstruction (odds ratio, 2.02; P=.04). Furthermore, women early natural menopause had a 40% increased risk of death (P=.023), which was mainly driven by respiratory diseases (hazard ratio, 2.32; P<.001). Mediation analyses further identified that more than 33.3% of the magnitude of the associations between early natural menopause and all-cause and respiratory mortality were explained by baseline forced expiratory volume in the first second. Additional analyses in women with natural menopause identified that the associations between continuous smoking and subsequent lung cancer risk and cancer mortality were moderated by early menopause status, and females with early natural menopause who continued smoking had the worst outcomes (hazard ratio, >4.6; P<.001). This study did not find associations reported above in female smokers with surgical menopause. CONCLUSION: Early natural menopause was found to be a risk factor for malignant and nonmalignant lung diseases and mortality in middle-aged and older female smokers. These findings have strong public health relevance as preventive strategies, including smoking cessation and chest computed tomography screening, should target this population (ie, female smokers with early natural menopause) to improve their postmenopausal health and well-being.

Integrated Biomarkers for the Management of Indeterminate Pulmonary Nodules.

Rationale: Patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) at risk of cancer undergo high rates of invasive, costly, and morbid procedures. Objectives: To train and externally validate a risk prediction model that combined clinical, blood, and imaging biomarkers to improve the noninvasive management of IPNs. Methods: In this prospectively collected, retrospective blinded evaluation study, probability of cancer was calculated for 456 patient nodules using the Mayo Clinic model, and patients were categorized into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. A combined biomarker model (CBM) including clinical variables, serum high sensitivity CYFRA 21-1 level, and a radiomic signature was trained in cohort 1 (n = 170) and validated in cohorts 2-4 (total n = 286). All patients were pooled to recalibrate the model for clinical implementation. The clinical utility of the CBM compared with current clinical care was evaluated in 2 cohorts. Measurements and Main Results: The CBM provided improved diagnostic accuracy over the Mayo Clinic model with an improvement in area under the curve of 0.124 (95% bootstrap confidence interval, 0.091-0.156; P < 2 × 10-16). Applying 10% and 70% risk thresholds resulted in a bias-corrected clinical reclassification index for cases and control subjects of 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. A clinical utility analysis of patient medical records estimated that a CBM-guided strategy would have reduced invasive procedures from 62.9% to 50.6% in the intermediate-risk benign population and shortened the median time to diagnosis of cancer from 60 to 21 days in intermediate-risk cancers. Conclusions: Integration of clinical, blood, and image biomarkers improves noninvasive diagnosis of patients with IPNs, potentially reducing the rate of unnecessary invasive procedures while shortening the time to diagnosis.

Automated quantification of COVID-19 severity and progression using chest CT images.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and test computer software to detect, quantify, and monitor progression of pneumonia associated with COVID-19 using chest CT scans. METHODS: One hundred twenty chest CT scans from subjects with lung infiltrates were used for training deep learning algorithms to segment lung regions and vessels. Seventy-two serial scans from 24 COVID-19 subjects were used to develop and test algorithms to detect and quantify the presence and progression of infiltrates associated with COVID-19. The algorithm included (1) automated lung boundary and vessel segmentation, (2) registration of the lung boundary between serial scans, (3) computerized identification of the pneumonitis regions, and (4) assessment of disease progression. Agreement between radiologist manually delineated regions and computer-detected regions was assessed using the Dice coefficient. Serial scans were registered and used to generate a heatmap visualizing the change between scans. Two radiologists, using a five-point Likert scale, subjectively rated heatmap accuracy in representing progression. RESULTS: There was strong agreement between computer detection and the manual delineation of pneumonic regions with a Dice coefficient of 81% (CI 76-86%). In detecting large pneumonia regions (> 200 mm3), the algorithm had a sensitivity of 95% (CI 94-97%) and specificity of 84% (CI 81-86%). Radiologists rated 95% (CI 72 to 99) of heatmaps at least "acceptable" for representing disease progression. CONCLUSION: The preliminary results suggested the feasibility of using computer software to detect and quantify pneumonic regions associated with COVID-19 and to generate heatmaps that can be used to visualize and assess progression. KEY POINTS: • Both computer vision and deep learning technology were used to develop computer software to quantify the presence and progression of pneumonia associated with COVID-19 depicted on CT images. • The computer software was tested using both quantitative experiments and subjective assessment. • The computer software has the potential to assist in the detection of the pneumonic regions, monitor disease progression, and assess treatment efficacy related to COVID-19.

Feasibility of lung cancer prediction from low-dose CT scan and smoking factors using causal models.

INTRODUCTION: Low-dose CT (LDCT) is currently used in lung cancer screening of high-risk populations for early lung cancer diagnosis. However, 96% of individuals with detected nodules are false positives. METHODS: In order to develop an efficient early lung cancer predictor from clinical, demographic and LDCT features, we studied a total of 218 subjects with lung cancer or benign nodules. Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) were used to integrate demographics, clinical data and LDCT features from 92 subjects (training cohort) from the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study cohort. RESULTS: Learnt PGMs identified three variables directly (causally) linked to malignant nodules and the largest benign nodule and used them to build the Lung Cancer Causal Model (LCCM), which was validated in a separate cohort of 126 subjects. Nodule and vessel numbers and years since the subject quit smoking were sufficient to discriminate malignant from benign nodules. Comparison with existing predictors in the training and validation cohorts showed that (1) incorporating LDCT scan features greatly enhances predictive accuracy; and (2) LCCM improves cancer detection over existing methods, including the Brock parsimonious model (p<0.001). Notably, the number of surrounding vessels, a feature not previously used in predictive models, significantly improves predictive efficiency. Based on the validation cohort results, LCCM is able to identify 30% of the benign nodules without risk of misclassifying cancer nodules. DISCUSSION: LCCM shows promise as a lung cancer predictor as it is significantly improved over existing models. Validated in a larger, prospective study, it may help reduce unnecessary follow-up visits and procedures.

Gene Promoter Hypermethylation Detected in Sputum Predicts FEV1 Decline and All-Cause Mortality in Smokers.

RATIONALE: Gene promoter hypermethylation detected in sputum assesses the extent of field cancerization and predicts lung cancer (LC) risk in ever-smokers. A rapid decline of FEV1 is a major driver for development of airway obstruction. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of methylation of 12 genes on FEV1 decline and of FEV1 decline on subsequent LC incidence using two independent, longitudinal cohorts (i.e., LSC [Lovelace Smokers Cohort] and PLuSS [Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study]). METHODS: Gene methylation was measured in sputum using two-stage nested methylation-specific PCR. The linear mixed effects model was used to assess the effects of studied variables on FEV1 decline. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A dose-dependent relationship between number of genes methylated and FEV1 decline was identified, with smokers with three or more methylated genes having 27.8% and 10.3% faster FEV1 decline than smokers with zero to two methylated genes in the LSC and PLuSS cohort, respectively (all P < 0.01). High methylation in sputum was associated with a shorter latency for LC incidence (log-rank P = 0.0048) and worse all-cause mortality (log-rank P < 0.0001). Smokers with subsequent LC incidence had a more rapid annual decline of FEV1 (by 5.2 ml, P = 0.038) than smoker control subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Gene methylation detected in sputum predicted FEV1 decline, LC incidence, and all-cause mortality in smokers. Rapid FEV1 decline may be a risk factor for LC incidence in smokers, which may explain a greater prevalence of airway obstruction seen in patients with LC.

Characteristics of lung cancer among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and interstitial lung disease - analysis of institutional and population data.

BACKGROUND: Lung Cancer is occasionally observed in patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF). We sought to describe the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of lung cancer for patients with IPF and other interstitial lung disease (ILD) using institutional and statewide data registries. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of IPF and non-IPF ILD patients from the ILD center registry, to compare with lung cancer registries at the University of Pittsburgh as well as with population data of lung cancer obtained from Pennsylvania Department of Health between 2000 and 2015. RESULTS: Among 1108 IPF patients, 31 patients were identified with IPF and lung cancer. The age-adjusted standard incidence ratio of lung cancer was 3.34 (with IPF) and 2.3 (with non-IPF ILD) (between-group Hazard ratio = 1.4, p = 0.3). Lung cancer worsened the mortality of IPF (p <  0.001). Lung cancer with IPF had higher mortality compared to lung cancer in non-IPF ILD (Hazard ratio = 6.2, p = 0.001). Lung cancer among IPF was characterized by a predilection for lower lobes (63% vs. 26% in non-IPF lung cancer, p <  0.001) and by squamous cell histology (41% vs. 29%, p = 0.07). Increased incidence of lung cancer was observed among single lung transplant (SLT) recipients for IPF (13 out of 97, 13.4%), with increased mortality compared to SLT for IPF without lung cancer (p = 0.028) during observational period. CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer is approximately 3.34 times more frequently diagnosed in IPF patients compared to general population, and associated with worse prognosis compared with IPF without lung cancer, with squamous cell carcinoma and lower lobe predilection. The causality between non-smoking IPF patients and lung cancer is to be determined.

Lung cancer in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Development and validation of the COPD Lung Cancer Screening Score.

RATIONALE: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at high risk for lung cancer (LC) and represent a potential target to improve the diagnostic yield of screening programs. OBJECTIVES: To develop a predictive score for LC risk for patients with COPD. METHODS: The Pamplona International Early Lung Cancer Detection Program (P-IELCAP) and the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) databases were analyzed. Only patients with COPD on spirometry were included. By logistic regression we determined which factors were independently associated with LC in PLuSS and developed a COPD LC screening score (COPD-LUCSS) to be validated in P-IELCAP. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: By regression analysis, age greater than 60, body mass index less than 25 kg/m(2), pack-years history greater than 60, and emphysema presence were independently associated with LC diagnosis and integrated into the COPD-LUCSS, which ranges from 0 to 10 points. Two COPD-LUCSS risk categories were proposed: low risk (scores 0-6) and high risk (scores 7-10). In comparison with low-risk patients, in both cohorts LC risk increased 3.5-fold in the high-risk category. CONCLUSIONS: The COPD-LUCSS is a good predictor of LC risk in patients with COPD participating in LC screening programs. Validation in two different populations adds strength to the findings.

Improving selection criteria for lung cancer screening. The potential role of emphysema.

RATIONALE: Lung cancer (LC) screening using low-dose chest computed tomography is now recommended in several guidelines using the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) entry criteria (age, 55-74; ≥30 pack-years; tobacco cessation within the previous 15 yr for former smokers). Concerns exist about their lack of sensitivity. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of NLST criteria in two different LC screening studies from Europe and the United States, and to explore the effect of using emphysema as a complementary criterion. METHODS: Participants from the Pamplona International Early Lung Action Detection Program (P-IELCAP; n = 3,061) and the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS; n = 3,638) were considered. LC cumulative frequencies, incidence densities, and annual detection rates were calculated in three hypothetical cohorts, including subjects who met NLST criteria alone, those with computed tomography-detected emphysema, and those who met NLST criteria and/or had emphysema. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Thirty-six percent and 59% of P-IELCAP and PLuSS participants, respectively, met NLST criteria. Among these, higher LC incidence densities and detection rates were observed. However, applying NLST criteria to our original cohorts would miss as many as 39% of all LC. Annual screening of subjects meeting either NLST criteria or having emphysema detected most cancers (88% and 95% of incident LC of P-IELCAP and PLuSS, respectively) despite reducing the number of screened participants by as much as 52%. CONCLUSIONS: LC screening based solely on NLST criteria could miss a significant number of LC cases. Combining NLST criteria and emphysema to select screening candidates results in higher LC detection rates and a lower number of cancers missed.

Incidence of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma among subjects at high risk of lung cancer: results from the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study.

BACKGROUND: Earlier detection and diagnosis of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) should lead to improved outcomes. However, to the authors' knowledge, no effective screening strategy has been identified to date. In the current study, the authors evaluated whether it would be useful to screen subjects targeted for lung cancer screening for HNSCC as well. METHODS: Medical records, death certificates, and cancer registry and questionnaire data were used to determine the number of observed incident HNSCC cases in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS), a cohort of current and former smokers aged ≥50 years with a ≥12.5 pack-year smoking history. The expected number of cases was estimated using stratum-specific incidence rates obtained from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for 2000 through 2011. The standardized incidence ratio was calculated to examine the difference between the observed and expected number of cases. RESULTS: Of the 3587 at-risk participants in the PLuSS, 23 (0.64%) developed HNSCC over a total of 32,201 person-years of follow-up. This finding was significantly higher than expected based on incidence rates obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (13.70 cases expected; standardized incidence ratio, 1.68 [95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.52]). The excess burden of HNSCC in the PLuSS was 28.9 cases per 100,000 person-years. Observed incident cases were significantly more often male, had started smoking at a younger age, smoked more per day, and had more pack-years of smoking than the rest of the PLuSS at-risk participants. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the current study provide a rationale for offering head and neck cancer screening along with computed tomography screening for lung cancer. Randomized controlled trials that assess the effectiveness of adding examination of the head and neck area to lung cancer screening programs are warranted.

Validation of a blood protein signature for non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: CT screening for lung cancer is effective in reducing mortality, but there are areas of concern, including a positive predictive value of 4% and development of interval cancers. A blood test that could manage these limitations would be useful, but development of such tests has been impaired by variations in blood collection that may lead to poor reproducibility across populations. RESULTS: Blood-based proteomic profiles were generated with SOMAscan technology, which measured 1033 proteins. First, preanalytic variability was evaluated with Sample Mapping Vectors (SMV), which are panels of proteins that detect confounders in protein levels related to sample collection. A subset of well collected serum samples not influenced by preanalytic variability was selected for discovery of lung cancer biomarkers. The impact of sample collection variation on these candidate markers was tested in the subset of samples with higher SMV scores so that the most robust markers could be used to create disease classifiers. The discovery sample set (n = 363) was from a multi-center study of 94 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cases and 269 long-term smokers and benign pulmonary nodule controls. The analysis resulted in a 7-marker panel with an AUC of 0.85 for all cases (68% adenocarcinoma, 32% squamous) and an AUC of 0.93 for squamous cell carcinoma in particular. This panel was validated by making blinded predictions in two independent cohorts (n = 138 in the first validation and n = 135 in the second). The model was recalibrated for a panel format prior to unblinding the second cohort. The AUCs overall were 0.81 and 0.77, and for squamous cell tumors alone were 0.89 and 0.87. The estimated negative predictive value for a 15% disease prevalence was 93% overall and 99% for squamous lung tumors. The proteins in the classifier function in destruction of the extracellular matrix, metabolic homeostasis and inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Selecting biomarkers resistant to sample processing variation led to robust lung cancer biomarkers that performed consistently in independent validations. They form a sensitive signature for detection of lung cancer, especially squamous cell histology. This non-invasive test could be used to improve the positive predictive value of CT screening, with the potential to avoid invasive evaluation of nonmalignant pulmonary nodules.

Improving long COVID-related text classification: a novel end-to-end domain-adaptive paraphrasing framework.

The emergence of long COVID during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has presented considerable challenges for healthcare professionals and researchers. The task of identifying relevant literature is particularly daunting due to the rapidly evolving scientific landscape, inconsistent definitions, and a lack of standardized nomenclature. This paper proposes a novel solution to this challenge by employing machine learning techniques to classify long COVID literature. However, the scarcity of annotated data for machine learning poses a significant obstacle. To overcome this, we introduce a strategy called medical paraphrasing, which diversifies the training data while maintaining the original content. Additionally, we propose a Data-Reweighting-Based Multi-Level Optimization Framework for Domain Adaptive Paraphrasing, supported by a Meta-Weight-Network (MWN). This innovative approach incorporates feedback from the downstream text classification model to influence the training of the paraphrasing model. During the training process, the framework assigns higher weights to the training examples that contribute more effectively to the downstream task of long COVID text classification. Our findings demonstrate that this method substantially improves the accuracy and efficiency of long COVID literature classification, offering a valuable tool for physicians and researchers navigating this complex and ever-evolving field.

Utility of peripheral protein biomarkers for the prediction of incident interstitial features: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION/RATIONALE: Protein biomarkers may help enable the prediction of incident interstitial features on chest CT. METHODS: We identified which protein biomarkers in a cohort of smokers (COPDGene) differed between those with and without objectively measured interstitial features at baseline using a univariate screen (t-test false discovery rate, FDR p<0.001), and which of those were associated with interstitial features longitudinally (multivariable mixed effects model FDR p<0.05). To predict incident interstitial features, we trained four random forest classifiers in a two-thirds random subset of COPDGene: (1) imaging and demographic information, (2) univariate screen biomarkers, (3) multivariable confirmation biomarkers and (4) multivariable confirmation biomarkers available in a separate testing cohort (Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS)). We evaluated classifier performance in the remaining one-third of COPDGene, and, for the final model, also in PLuSS. RESULTS: In COPDGene, 1305 biomarkers were available and 20 differed between those with and without interstitial features at baseline. Of these, 11 were associated with feature progression over a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, and of these 4 were available in PLuSS, (angiopoietin-2, matrix metalloproteinase 7, macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha) over a mean of 8.8 years of follow-up. The area under the curve (AUC) of classifiers using demographics and imaging features in COPDGene and PLuSS were 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. In COPDGene, the AUC of the univariate screen classifier was 0.78 and of the multivariable confirmation classifier was 0.76. The AUC of the final classifier in COPDGene was 0.75 and in PLuSS was 0.76. The outcome for all of the models was the development of incident interstitial features. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple novel and previously identified proteomic biomarkers are associated with interstitial features on chest CT and may enable the prediction of incident interstitial diseases such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Doubling times and CT screen­detected lung cancers in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study.

RATIONALE: As computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer becomes more widespread, volumetric analyses, including doubling times, of CT-screen detected lung nodules and lung cancers may provide useful information in the follow-up and management of CT-detected lung nodules and cancers. OBJECTIVES: To analyze doubling times in CT screen detected lung cancers and compare prevalent and nonprevalent cancers and different cell types on non small cell lung cancer. METHODS: We performed volumetric and doubling time analysis on 63 non­small cell lung cancers detected as part of the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study using a commercially available VITREA 2 workstation and VITREA VITAL nodule segmentation software. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Doubling times (DT) were divided into three groups: rapid (DT<183 d), typical (DT 183­365 d), and slow (DT>365 d). Adenocarcinoma/bronchioloalveolar carcinoma comprised 86.7% of the slow DT group compared with 20% of the rapid DT group. Conversely, squamous cell cancer comprised 60% of the rapid DT group compared with 3.3% of the slow DT group. Twenty-eight of 42 (67%) prevalent and 2 of 21 (10%) nonprevalent cancers were in the slow DT group (P<0.0001; Fisher's exact test). Twenty-four of 32 (75%) prevalent and 1 of 11 (9%) nonprevalent adenocarcinomas were in the slow DT group (P<0.0002; Fisher's exact test). CONCLUSIONS: Volumetric analysis of CT-detected lung cancers is particularly useful in AC/BAC. Prevalent cancers have a significantly slower DT than nonprevalent cancers and a higher percentage of adenocarcinoma/bronchioloalveolar carcinoma. These results should affect the management of indeterminant lung nodules detected on screening CT scans.

Improving Lung Cancer Diagnosis with CT Radiomics and Serum Histoplasmosis Testing.

BACKGROUND: Indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPN) are a diagnostic challenge in regions where pulmonary fungal disease and smoking prevalence are high. We aimed to determine the impact of a combined fungal and imaging biomarker approach compared with a validated prediction model (Mayo) to rule out benign disease and diagnose lung cancer. METHODS: Adults ages 40 to 90 years with 6-30 mm IPNs were included from four sites. Serum samples were tested for histoplasmosis IgG and IgM antibodies by enzyme immunoassay and a CT-based risk score was estimated from a validated radiomic model. Multivariable logistic regression models including Mayo score, radiomics score, and IgG and IgM histoplasmosis antibody levels were estimated. The areas under the ROC curves (AUC) of the models were compared among themselves and to Mayo. Bias-corrected clinical net reclassification index (cNRI) was estimated to assess clinical reclassification using a combined biomarker model. RESULTS: We included 327 patients; 157 from histoplasmosis-endemic regions. The combined biomarker model including radiomics, histoplasmosis serology, and Mayo score demonstrated improved diagnostic accuracy when endemic histoplasmosis was accounted for [AUC, 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.79-0.88; P < 0.0001 compared with 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.78 for Mayo]. The combined model demonstrated improved reclassification with cNRI of 0.18 among malignant nodules. CONCLUSIONS: Fungal and imaging biomarkers may improve diagnostic accuracy and meaningfully reclassify IPNs. The endemic prevalence of histoplasmosis and cancer impact model performance when using disease related biomarkers. IMPACT: Integrating a combined biomarker approach into the diagnostic algorithm of IPNs could decrease time to diagnosis.

Improving lung cancer diagnosis with cancer, fungal, and imaging biomarkers.

OBJECTIVE: Indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) represent a significant diagnostic burden in health care. We aimed to compare a combination clinical prediction model (Mayo Clinic model), fungal (histoplasmosis serology), imaging (computed tomography [CT] radiomics), and cancer (high-sensitivity cytokeratin fraction 21; hsCYFRA 21-1) biomarker approach to a validated prediction model in diagnosing lung cancer. METHODS: A prospective specimen collection, retrospective blinded evaluation study was performed in 3 independent cohorts with 6- to 30-mm IPNs (n = 281). Serum histoplasmosis immunoglobulin G and immunoglobulin M antibodies and hsCYFRA 21-1 levels were measured and a validated CT radiomic score was calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models were estimated with Mayo Clinic model variables, histoplasmosis antibody levels, CT radiomic score, and hsCYFRA 21-1. Diagnostic performance of the combination model was compared with that of the Mayo Clinic model. Bias-corrected clinical net reclassification index (cNRI) was used to estimate the clinical utility of a combination biomarker approach. RESULTS: A total of 281 patients were included (111 from a histoplasmosis-endemic region). The combination biomarker model including the Mayo Clinic model score, histoplasmosis antibody levels, radiomics, and hsCYFRA 21-1 level showed improved diagnostic accuracy for IPNs compared with the Mayo Clinic model alone with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.84) versus 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.78). Use of this combination model correctly reclassified intermediate risk IPNs into low- or high-risk category (cNRI benign = 0.11 and cNRI malignant = 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of cancer, fungal, and imaging biomarkers improves the diagnostic accuracy for IPNs. Integrating a combination biomarker approach into the diagnostic algorithm of IPNs might decrease unnecessary invasive testing of benign nodules and reduce time to diagnosis for cancer.

Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression and Outcomes in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD and Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors and clinical outcomes of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression over time have not been characterized. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What are the associations of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression with lung function, exercise capacity, and mortality? What are the demographic and genetic risk factors for quantitative interstitial abnormality progression? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Quantitative interstitial abnormality progression between visits 1 and 2 was assessed from 4,635 participants in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort and 1,307 participants in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) cohort. We used multivariable linear regression to determine the risk factors for progression and the longitudinal associations between progression and FVC and 6-min walk distance, and Cox regression models for the association with mortality. RESULTS: Age at enrollment, female sex, current smoking status, and the MUC5B minor allele were associated with quantitative interstitial abnormality progression. Each percent annual increase in quantitative interstitial abnormalities was associated with annual declines in FVC (COPDGene: 8.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 4.7-12.4 mL/y; P < .001; PLuSS: 9.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 3.7-15.4 mL/y; P = .001) and 6-min walk distance, and increased mortality (COPDGene: hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.34-2.12; P < .001; PLuSS: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.10-1.49; P = .001). INTERPRETATION: The objective, longitudinal measurement of quantitative interstitial abnormalities may help identify people at greatest risk for adverse events and most likely to benefit from early intervention.