A comparison of cardiovascular disease, cancer, mortality, and Graves' ophthalmopathy following treatment for hyperthyroidism: A Bayesian network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This network meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association of anti-thyroid drugs (ATD), radioactive iodine (RAI), and thyroidectomy with subsequent outcomes in patients with newly-diagnosed hyperthyroidism. METHODS: The Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched for observational studies and randomized controlled trials. Included studies were published on or before 1st May 2022 involving at least two of the treatments among ATD, RAI, and thyroidectomy for hyperthyroidism. Pairwise comparisons and Bayesian network meta-analysis were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their credible interval (CrI) of outcomes, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, overall mortality, and Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO). RESULTS: A total of 22 cohort studies with 131,297 hyperthyroidism patients were included. Thyroidectomy was associated with lower risks of mortality and GO than ATD (HR = 0.54, 95% CrI: 0.31, 0.96; HR = 0.31, 95% CrI: 0.12, 0.64) and RAI (HR = 0.62, 95% CrI: 0.41, 0.95; HR = 0.18, 95% CrI: 0.07, 0.35). RAI had a higher risk of GO (HR = 1.70, 95% CrI: 1.02, 2.99) than ATD treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian network meta-analysis indicated that thyroidectomy was associated with lower risks of mortality and GO in newly-diagnosed hyperthyroid patients compared to ATD and RAI. Relative to ATD, RAI therapy increased the risk of GO.

Risk of Incident Thyroid Dysfunction in the Post-Acute Phase of COVID-19: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVE: The evidence of thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection is limited. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of incident thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective, propensity-score matched, population-based study included COVID-19 patients and non-COVID-19 individuals between January 2020 and March 2022, identified from the electronic medical records of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. The cohort was followed up until the occurrence of outcomes, death, or 31 January 2023, whichever came first. Patients with COVID-19 were 1:1 matched to controls based on various variables. The primary outcome was a composite of thyroid dysfunction (hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, initiation of antithyroid drug or levothyroxine, and thyroiditis). Cox regression was employed to evaluate the risk of incident thyroid dysfunction during the post-acute phase. RESULTS: A total of 84 034 COVID-19 survivors and 84 034 matched controls were identified. Upon a median follow-up of 303 days, there was no significant increase in the risk of diagnosed thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.058, 95% confidence interval 0.979-1.144, P = .154). Regarding the secondary outcomes, patients with COVID-19 did not have increased risk of hyperthyroidism (HR 1.061, P = .345), hypothyroidism (HR 1.062, P = .255), initiation of antithyroid drug (HR 1.302, P = .070), initiation of levothyroxine (HR 1.086, P = .426), or thyroiditis (P = .252). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were largely consistent with the main analyses. CONCLUSION: Our population-based cohort study provided important reassuring data that COVID-19 was unlikely to be associated with persistent effects on thyroid function.

Incidence of diabetes following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hong Kong: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of incident diabetes following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination remains to be elucidated. Also, it is unclear whether the risk of incident diabetes after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is modified by vaccination status or differs by SARS-CoV-2 variants. We evaluated the incidence of diabetes following mRNA (BNT162b2), inactivated (CoronaVac) COVID-19 vaccines, and after SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this population-based cohort study, individuals without known diabetes were identified from an electronic health database in Hong Kong. The first cohort included people who received ≥1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine and those who did not receive any COVID-19 vaccines up to September 2021. The second cohort consisted of confirmed COVID-19 patients and people who were never infected up to March 2022. Both cohorts were followed until August 15, 2022. A total of 325,715 COVID-19 vaccine recipients (CoronaVac: 167,337; BNT162b2: 158,378) and 145,199 COVID-19 patients were 1:1 matched to their respective controls using propensity score for various baseline characteristics. We also adjusted for previous SARS-CoV-2 infection when estimating the conditional probability of receiving vaccinations, and vaccination status when estimating the conditional probability of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes were estimated using Cox regression models. In the first cohort, we identified 5,760 and 4,411 diabetes cases after receiving CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccines, respectively. Upon a median follow-up of 384 to 386 days, there was no evidence of increased risks of incident diabetes following CoronaVac or BNT162b2 vaccination (CoronaVac: 9.08 versus 9.10 per 100,000 person-days, HR = 0.998 [95% CI 0.962 to 1.035]; BNT162b2: 7.41 versus 8.58, HR = 0.862 [0.828 to 0.897]), regardless of diabetes type. In the second cohort, we observed 2,109 cases of diabetes following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Upon a median follow-up of 164 days, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with significantly higher risk of incident diabetes (9.04 versus 7.38, HR = 1.225 [1.150 to 1.305])-mainly type 2 diabetes-regardless of predominant circulating variants, albeit lower with Omicron variants (p for interaction = 0.009). The number needed to harm at 6 months was 406 for 1 additional diabetes case. Subgroup analysis revealed no evidence of increased risk of incident diabetes among fully vaccinated COVID-19 survivors. Main limitations of our study included possible misclassification bias as type 1 diabetes was identified through diagnostic coding and possible residual confounders due to its observational nature. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of increased risks of incident diabetes following COVID-19 vaccination. The risk of incident diabetes increased following SARS-CoV-2 infection, mainly type 2 diabetes. The excess risk was lower, but still statistically significant, for Omicron variants. Fully vaccinated individuals might be protected from risks of incident diabetes following SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Risks of stroke, its subtypes and atrial fibrillation associated with glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists versus sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors: a real-world population-based cohort study in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on head-to-head comparative risk of stroke between sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA). We compared risk of stroke with its subtypes and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) between them. METHODS: A population-based, retrospective cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes between 2008 and 2020 were identified from the electronic health records of Hong Kong Hospital Authority. Patients who received SGLT2i or GLP-1RA were matched pairwise by propensity score. Risks of stroke and AF were evaluated by hazard ratios (HRs) from the Cox proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: A total of 5840 patients (2920 SGLT2i users; 2920 GLP-1RA users) were included (mean age 55.5 years, 56.1% men, mean HbA1c 8.9% and duration of diabetes 13.7 years). Upon median follow-up of 17 months, there were 111 (1.9%) events of stroke (SGLT2i: 62, 2.1%; GLP-1RA: 49 1.7%). SGLT2i users had comparable risk of all stroke as GLP-1RA users (HR 1.46, 95% CI 0.99-2.17, p = 0.058). SGLT2i users had higher risk of ischemic stroke (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.01-2.33, p = 0.044) but similar risk of hemorrhagic stroke compared to GLP-1RA users. Although SGLT2i was associated with lower risk of incident AF (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.79, p = 0.006), risk of cardioembolic stroke was similar. CONCLUSIONS: Our real-world study demonstrated that GLP-1RA use was associated with lower risk of ischemic stroke, despite the association between SGLT2i use and lower risk of incident AF. There was no significant difference in hemorrhagic stroke risk. GLP-1RA may be the preferred agent for patients with type 2 diabetes at risk of ischemic stroke.

Psychometric properties of EQ-5D-5L for use in patients with Graves' disease.

BACKGROUND: The EQ-5D-5 L is a commonly used generic measure of health. This study aimed to evaluate the psychometric properties of the EQ-5D-5 L in patients with Graves' disease (GD). METHODS: A prospective cohort of patients with GD recruited at three public hospitals in Hong Kong completed the EQ-5D-5 L and ThyPRO-39 questionnaires at baseline, 1-month, and 6-month follow-ups. Convergent validity was tested by examining the Spearman correlation between EQ-5D-5 L and ThyPRO-39 scores at baseline. 1-month test-retest reliability was assessed by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC), Gwet's Agreement Coefficient 2 (AC2), and percentage agreement. Responsiveness of EQ-5D-5 L index and EQ-VAS scores was assessed using effect size statistics (standardized effect size [SES] and standardized response mean [SRM]). RESULTS: Of 125 recruited patients, 101 (80.8%) and 100 (80.0%) patients were followed up at 1- and 6-month, respectively. For convergent validity, there was a moderate negative correlation between EQ-5D-5 L index or EQ-VAS score and ThyPRO-39 overall QoL-impact score (-0.350, -0.451), between EQ-VAS score and composite score (-0.483), and strong negative correlation between EQ-5D-5 L index score and composite score (-0.567). The Gwet's AC2 and percentage agreement were the highest in self-care (0.964 and 0.967), followed by mobility (0.952 and 0.962), usual activities (0.934 and 0.948), pain/discomfort (0.801 and 0.887), and anxiety/depression (0.788 and 0.882). The ICC for the EQ-5D-5 L index and the EQ-VAS was 0.707 and 0.700. For patients who reported having 'worsened' health at 6-month follow-up, the SES and SRM were - 0.66 and - 0.42 for EQ-5D-5 L index and - 1.15 and - 1.00 for EQ-VAS, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-5 L demonstrated convergent validity, test-retest reliability, and responsiveness to worsened health status among patients with GD.

Risk of thyroid dysfunction associated with mRNA and inactivated COVID-19 vaccines: a population-based study of 2.3 million vaccine recipients.

BACKGROUND: In view of accumulating case reports of thyroid dysfunction following COVID-19 vaccination, we evaluated the risks of incident thyroid dysfunction following inactivated (CoronaVac) and mRNA (BNT162b2) COVID-19 vaccines using a population-based dataset. METHODS: We identified people who received COVID-19 vaccination between 23 February and 30 September 2021 from a population-based electronic health database in Hong Kong, linked to vaccination records. Thyroid dysfunction encompassed anti-thyroid drug (ATD)/levothyroxine (LT4) initiation, biochemical picture of hyperthyroidism/hypothyroidism, incident Graves' disease (GD), and thyroiditis. A self-controlled case series design was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of thyroid dysfunction in a 56-day post-vaccination period compared to the baseline period (non-exposure period) using conditional Poisson regression. RESULTS: A total of 2,288,239 people received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccination (57.8% BNT162b2 recipients and 42.2% CoronaVac recipients). 94.3% of BNT162b2 recipients and 92.2% of CoronaVac recipients received the second dose. Following the first dose of COVID-19 vaccination, there was no increase in the risks of ATD initiation (BNT162b2: IRR 0.864, 95% CI 0.670-1.114; CoronaVac: IRR 0.707, 95% CI 0.549-0.912), LT4 initiation (BNT162b2: IRR 0.911, 95% CI 0.716-1.159; CoronaVac: IRR 0.778, 95% CI 0.618-0.981), biochemical picture of hyperthyroidism (BNT162b2: IRR 0.872, 95% CI 0.744-1.023; CoronaVac: IRR 0.830, 95% CI 0.713-0.967) or hypothyroidism (BNT162b2: IRR 1.002, 95% CI 0.838-1.199; CoronaVac: IRR 0.963, 95% CI 0.807-1.149), GD, and thyroiditis. Similarly, following the second dose of COVID-19 vaccination, there was no increase in the risks of ATD initiation (BNT162b2: IRR 0.972, 95% CI 0.770-1.227; CoronaVac: IRR 0.879, 95%CI 0.693-1.116), LT4 initiation (BNT162b2: IRR 1.019, 95% CI 0.833-1.246; CoronaVac: IRR 0.768, 95% CI 0.613-0.962), hyperthyroidism (BNT162b2: IRR 1.039, 95% CI 0.899-1.201; CoronaVac: IRR 0.911, 95% CI 0.786-1.055), hypothyroidism (BNT162b2: IRR 0.935, 95% CI 0.794-1.102; CoronaVac: IRR 0.945, 95% CI 0.799-1.119), GD, and thyroiditis. Age- and sex-specific subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed consistent neutral associations between thyroid dysfunction and both types of COVID-19 vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: Our population-based study showed no evidence of vaccine-related increase in incident hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism with both BNT162b2 and CoronaVac.

Cardiovascular benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes, interaction with metformin and role of erythrocytosis: a self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have proven cardiovascular benefits in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This self-controlled case series study aims to evaluate whether metformin use and SGLT2i-associated erythrocytosis influence its cardiovascular benefits. METHODS: T2D patients with metformin and/or SGLT2i prescriptions between 2015 and 2020 were identified from the Hong Kong population. Study outcomes were composite cardiovascular diseases (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), hospitalisation for heart failure (HHF), stroke, and erythrocytosis. Risk periods were patient-time divided into four mutually exclusive windows: (i) 'baseline period' of metformin use without SGLT2i; (ii) pre-SGLT2i period; (iii) exposure to SGLT2i without metformin; and (iv) exposure to the drug combination. Another SCCS model was applied to evaluate the association between erythrocytosis and cardiovascular outcomes regarding SGLT2i exposure. Four mutually exclusive risk periods included (i) SGLT2i exposure with erythrocytosis; (ii) SGLT2i exposure without erythrocytosis; (iii) absence of SGLT2i exposure with erythrocytosis; and (iv) absence of SGLT2i exposure without erythrocytosis. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) of events at different risk periods were estimated using conditional Poisson regression model. RESULTS: Among 20,861 patients with metformin and/or SGLT2i prescriptions, 2575 and 1700 patients with events of composite CVD and erythrocytosis were identified, respectively. Compared to metformin use without SGLT2i, SGLT2i initiation was associated with lower risks of composite CVD, CHD, and HHF-regardless of the presence (CVD: IRR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.37-0.51; CHD: IRR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.37-0.53; HHF: IRR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.22-0.40; all p < 0.001) and absence of concomitant metformin (CVD: IRR = 0.31, 95% CI 0.20-0.48; CHD: IRR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.25-0.59; HHF: IRR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.09-0.31; all p < 0.001); while SGLT2i was neutral on stroke risk. Compared to metformin-SGLT2i combination, exposure to SGLT2i alone was associated with comparable risks of all cardiovascular outcomes (all p > 0.05). Incidence rates of erythrocytosis at baseline, SGLT2i without and with metformin use periods were 0.75, 3.06 and 3.27 per 100 person-years, respectively. SGLT2i users who developed erythrocytosis had lower risk of HHF (IRR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.14-0.99, p = 0.049) than those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Our real-world data suggested that SGLT2i-associated cardiovascular benefits were not attenuated by metformin use. Further studies will delineate the role of erythrocytosis as a surrogate marker of SGLT2i-associated cardiovascular benefit in reducing HHF.

Long-term outcome of patients treated with antithyroid drugs, radioactive iodine or surgery for persistent or relapsed Graves' disease.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to compare long-term mortality, morbidity, and cumulative healthcare costs between antithyroid drugs, radioactive iodine, and surgical treatment for patients with persistent or relapsed Graves' disease. METHODS: Data on patients with persistent or relapsed Graves' disease between 2006 and 2018 were retrieved from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. Hazard ratios (HRs) estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compare the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, psychological disease, Graves' ophthalmopathy, and cancer across treatment groups. The 10-year healthcare cost and change in co-morbidity status were also estimated. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 79 months (22 636 person-years), a total of 3443 patients (antithyroid drug 2294, radioactive iodine 755, surgery 394) were analysed. Compared with antithyroid drug treatment, surgery was associated with significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality (HR 0.40, 95 per cent c.i. 0.36 to 0.45), cardiovascular disease (HR 0.54, 0.48 to 0.60), atrial fibrillation (HR 0.11, 0.09 to 0.14), psychological disease (HR 0.85, 0.79 to 0.92), Graves' ophthalmopathy (HR 0.09, 0.08 to 0.10), and cancer (HR 0.56, 0.50 to 0.63). Patients who underwent surgery also had a lower risk of all outcome events than those in the radioactive iodine group. The 10-year direct cumulative healthcare cost was €14 754 for surgery compared with €17 390 for antithyroid drugs, and €17 918 for the radioactive iodine group. CONCLUSION: Patients who underwent surgery for persistent or relapsed Graves' disease had lower risks of all-cause mortality and analysed morbidities. The 10-year cumulative healthcare cost in the surgery group was lowest among the three treatment alternatives.

Outcomes of Graves' Disease Patients Following Antithyroid Drugs, Radioactive Iodine, or Thyroidectomy as the First-line Treatment.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcomes of first-line choice among ATD, RAI, and thyroidectomy for GD patients remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term morbidity, mortality, relapse, and costs of GD patients receiving first-line treatment. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort of GD patients initiating first-line treatment with ATD, RAI, or thyroidectomy as a first-line primary treatment between 2006 and 2018 from Hong Kong Hospital Authority was analyzed. Risks of all-cause mortality, CVD, AF, psychological disease, diabetes, and hypertension were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The 10-year healthcare costs, change of comorbidities, and risk of relapse were compared across treatments. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 90 months with 47,470 person-years, 6385 patients (ATD, 74.93%; RAI, 19.95%; thyroidectomy, 5.12%) who received first-line treatment for GD were analyzed. Compared with ATD group, patients who had undergone surgery had significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.363, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.332-0.396], CVD (HR = 0.216, 95% CI = 0.195-0.239), AF (HR = 0.103, 95% CI = 0.085-0.124), psychological disease (HR = 0.279, 95% CI = 0.258-0.301), diabetes (HR = 0.341, 95% CI = 0.305-0.381), and hypertension (HR = 0.673, 95% CI = 0.632-0.718). Meanwhile, RAI group was also associated with decreased risks of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.931, 95% CI = 0.882-0.982), CVD (HR = 0.784, 95% CI = 0.742-0.828), AF (HR = 0.622, 95% CI = 0.578-0.67), and psychological disease (HR = 0.895, 95% CI = 0.855-0.937). The relapse rate was 2.41% in surgery, 75.60% in ATD, and 19.53% in RAI group. The surgery group was observed with a significant lower Charlson Comorbidity Index score than the other 2 groups at the tenth-year follow-up. The mean 10-year cumulative healthcare costs in ATD, RAI, and surgery group was US$23915, US$24260, and US$20202, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: GD patients who received surgery as an initial treatment appeared to have lower chances of all-cause mortality, CVD, AF, psychological disease, diabetes, and hypertension in the long-term when compared to those treated with ATD or RAI. The surgery group had the lowest relapse and direct healthcare costs among the 3 treatment modalities. This long-term cohort study suggested surgery may have a larger role to play as an initial treatment for GD patients.

Role of non-thyroidal illness syndrome in predicting adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients predominantly of mild-to-moderate severity.

OBJECTIVE: Existing studies reported the potential prognostic role of non-thyroidal illness syndrome (NTIS), characterized by low triiodothyronine (T3) with normal/low thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), mainly in severe COVID-19. None considered the significant impact of SARS-CoV-2 viral load on adverse outcomes. We aimed to clarify the prognostic role of NTIS among predominantly mild-to-moderate COVID-19 patients. DESIGN: A prospective study of COVID-19 patients. PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Consecutive adults admitted to Queen Mary Hospital for confirmed COVID-19 from July to December 2020 were prospectively recruited. SARS-CoV-2 viral load was represented by cycle threshold (Ct) values from real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction of the respiratory specimen on admission. Serum TSH, free thyroxine and free T3 were measured on admission. The outcome was deterioration in clinical severity, defined as worsening in ≥1 category of clinical severity according to the Chinese National Health Commission guideline. RESULTS: We recruited 367 patients. At baseline, 75.2% had mild disease, and 27 patients (7.4%) had NTIS. Fifty-three patients (14.4%) had clinical deterioration. Patients with NTIS were older, had more comorbidities, worse symptomatology, higher SARS-CoV-2 viral loads and worse profiles of inflammatory and tissue injury markers. They were more likely to have clinical deterioration (p < .001). In multivariable stepwise logistic regression analysis, NTIS independently predicted clinical deterioration (adjusted odds ratio 3.19, p = .017), in addition to Ct value <25 (p < .001), elevated C-reactive protein (p = .004), age >50 years (p = .011) and elevated creatine kinase (p = .017). CONCLUSIONS: Non-thyroidal illness syndrome was not uncommon even in mild-to-moderate COVID-19 patients. NTIS on admission could predict clinical deterioration in COVID-19, independent of SARS-CoV-2 viral load, age and markers of inflammation and tissue injury.