DNA methylation-based predictors of health: applications and statistical considerations.

DNA methylation data have become a valuable source of information for biomarker development, because, unlike static genetic risk estimates, DNA methylation varies dynamically in relation to diverse exogenous and endogenous factors, including environmental risk factors and complex disease pathology. Reliable methods for genome-wide measurement at scale have led to the proliferation of epigenome-wide association studies and subsequently to the development of DNA methylation-based predictors across a wide range of health-related applications, from the identification of risk factors or exposures, such as age and smoking, to early detection of disease or progression in cancer, cardiovascular and neurological disease. This Review evaluates the progress of existing DNA methylation-based predictors, including the contribution of machine learning techniques, and assesses the uptake of key statistical best practices needed to ensure their reliable performance, such as data-driven feature selection, elimination of data leakage in performance estimates and use of generalizable, adequately powered training samples.

Blood-based epigenome-wide analyses of chronic low-grade inflammation across diverse population cohorts.

Chronic inflammation is a hallmark of age-related disease states. The effectiveness of inflammatory proteins including C-reactive protein (CRP) in assessing long-term inflammation is hindered by their phasic nature. DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures of CRP may act as more reliable markers of chronic inflammation. We show that inter-individual differences in DNAm capture 50% of the variance in circulating CRP (N = 17,936, Generation Scotland). We develop a series of DNAm predictors of CRP using state-of-the-art algorithms. An elastic-net-regression-based predictor outperformed competing methods and explained 18% of phenotypic variance in the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936 (LBC1936) cohort, doubling that of existing DNAm predictors. DNAm predictors performed comparably in four additional test cohorts (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Health for Life in Singapore, Southall and Brent Revisited, and LBC1921), including for individuals of diverse genetic ancestry and different age groups. The best-performing predictor surpassed assay-measured CRP and a genetic score in its associations with 26 health outcomes. Our findings forge new avenues for assessing chronic low-grade inflammation in diverse populations.

Analysis of DNA methylation at birth and in childhood reveals changes associated with season of birth and latitude.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal variations in environmental exposures at birth or during gestation are associated with numerous adult traits and health outcomes later in life. Whether DNA methylation (DNAm) plays a role in the molecular mechanisms underlying the associations between birth season and lifelong phenotypes remains unclear. METHODS: We carried out epigenome-wide meta-analyses within the Pregnancy And Childhood Epigenetic Consortium to identify associations of DNAm with birth season, both at differentially methylated probes (DMPs) and regions (DMRs). Associations were examined at two time points: at birth (21 cohorts, N = 9358) and in children aged 1-11 years (12 cohorts, N = 3610). We conducted meta-analyses to assess the impact of latitude on birth season-specific associations at both time points. RESULTS: We identified associations between birth season and DNAm (False Discovery Rate-adjusted p values < 0.05) at two CpGs at birth (winter-born) and four in the childhood (summer-born) analyses when compared to children born in autumn. Furthermore, we identified twenty-six differentially methylated regions (DMR) at birth (winter-born: 8, spring-born: 15, summer-born: 3) and thirty-two in childhood (winter-born: 12, spring and summer: 10 each) meta-analyses with few overlapping DMRs between the birth seasons or the two time points. The DMRs were associated with genes of known functions in tumorigenesis, psychiatric/neurological disorders, inflammation, or immunity, amongst others. Latitude-stratified meta-analyses [higher (≥ 50°N), lower (< 50°N, northern hemisphere only)] revealed differences in associations between birth season and DNAm by birth latitude. DMR analysis implicated genes with previously reported links to schizophrenia (LAX1), skin disorders (PSORS1C, LTB4R), and airway inflammation including asthma (LTB4R), present only at birth in the higher latitudes (≥ 50°N). CONCLUSIONS: In this large epigenome-wide meta-analysis study, we provide evidence for (i) associations between DNAm and season of birth that are unique for the seasons of the year (temporal effect) and (ii) latitude-dependent variations in the seasonal associations (spatial effect). DNAm could play a role in the molecular mechanisms underlying the effect of birth season on adult health outcomes.