The current infection with Helicobacter pylori and association with upper gastrointestinal lesions and risk of upper gastrointestinal cancer: Insights from multicenter population-based cohort study.

The relationship between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection and upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancers is complex. This multicenter, population-based cohort study conducted in seven areas in China aimed to assess the correlation between current H. pylori infection and the severity of UGI lesions, as well as its association with the risk of gastric cancer (GC) and esophageal cancer (EC). From 2015 to 2017, 27,085 participants (aged 40-69) completed a standardized questionnaire, and underwent a 13C-urea breath test. Then a subset underwent UGI endoscopy to assess the UGI lesion detection rates. All individuals were followed up until December 2021 to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for UGI cancers. H. pylori infection prevalence was 45.9%, and among endoscopy participants, 22.2% had gastric lesions, 19.2% had esophageal lesions. Higher detection rates of gastric lesions were noted in the H. pylori-positive population across all lesion severity levels. Over a median follow-up of 6.3 years, 104 EC and 179 GC cases were observed, including 103 non-cardia gastric cancer (NCGC) cases and 76 cardia gastric cancer (CGC) cases. H. pylori-infected individuals exhibited a 1.78-fold increased risk of GC (HR 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-2.40) but no significant increase in EC risk (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.73-1.57). Notably, there was a higher risk for both NCGC and CGC in H. pylori-infected individuals. This population-based cohort study provides valuable evidence supporting the association between current H. pylori infection and the risk of both NCGC and CGC. These findings contribute to the empirical basis for risk stratification and recommendations for UGI cancer screening.

Global patterns of cancer transitions: A modelling study.

Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden. Many countries experienced or are experiencing the transition that non-infection-related cancers replace infection-related cancers. We aimed to characterise burden changes for major types of cancers and identify global transition patterns. We focused on 10 most common cancers worldwide and extracted age-standardised incidence and mortality in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 through the Global Burden of Disease Study. Two-stage modelling design was used. First, we applied growth mixture models (GMMs) to identify distinct trajectories for incidence and mortality of each cancer type. Next, we performed latent class analysis to detect cancer transition patterns based on the categorisation results from GMMs. Kruskal-Wallis H tests were conducted to evaluate associations between transition patterns and socioeconomic indicators. Three distinct patterns were identified as unfavourable, intermediate and favourable stages. Trajectories of lung and breast cancers had the strongest association with transition patterns among men and women. The unfavourable stage was characterised by rapid increases in lung, breast and colorectal cancers alongside stable or decreasing burden of gastric, cervical, oesophageal and liver cancers. In contrast, the favourable stage exhibited rapid declines in most cancers. The unfavourable stage was associated with lower sociodemographic index, health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita and higher maternal mortality ratio (P < .001 for all associations). Our findings suggest that unfavourable, intermediate and favourable transition patterns exist. Countries and territories in the unfavourable stage tend to be socioeconomically disadvantaged, and tailored intervention strategies are needed in these resource-limited settings.

Endoscopic Surveillance for Premalignant Esophageal Lesions: A Community-Based Multicenter, Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Mild and moderate dysplasia are major premalignant lesions of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC); however, evidence of the progression risk in patients with these conditions is extremely limited. We aimed to assess the incidence and risk factors for advanced neoplasia in patients with mild-moderate dysplasia. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included patients with mild-moderate dysplasia from 9 regions in rural China. These patients were identified from a community-based ESCC screening program conducted between 2010 and 2016 and were offered endoscopic surveillance until December 2021. We estimated the incidence of advanced esophageal neoplasia, including severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, or ESCC, and identified potential risk factors using the Cox regression model. RESULTS: The 1183 patients with mild-moderate dysplasia were followed up over a period of 6.95 years. During follow-up evaluation, 88 patients progressed to advanced neoplasia (7.44%), with an incidence rate of 10.44 per 1000 person-years. The median interval from the progression of mild-moderate dysplasia to advanced neoplasia was 2.39 years (interquartile range, 1.58-4.32 y). A total of 74.47% of patients with mild-moderate dysplasia experienced regression to nondysplasia, and 18.09% showed no lesion progression. Patients with mild-moderate dysplasia who had a family history of esophageal cancer and were age 55 years and older showed 97% higher advanced neoplasia yields than all patients with mild-moderate dysplasia. CONCLUSIONS: In a country with a high incidence of ESCC, patients with mild-moderate dysplasia showed an overall risk of advanced neoplasia progression of 1.04% per year. Patients with mild-moderate dysplasia would be recommended for endoscopic surveillance during the first 2 to 3 years.

Investigation of Genetic Effects of Nucleotide Variants Within the Goat PRNT Gene on Growth Performance.

Our previous study has firstly pointed that three nucleotide variants (g.-11C > T, g.117A > G, and g.149C > T) of the goat PRNT gene can significantly influence litter size. Given litter size is positively correlated with growth performance, we consider whether the PRNT gene also acts on the growth performance in goats. In this work, a correlation analysis among different litter size types and growth traits of Shaanbei white cashmere (SBWC) goats was performed, and results showed that a positive correlation did exist in our detected population (P < 0.01). Then, the association among different genotypes of three variations and goat growth performance was measured. Our results pointed to g.117A > G being significantly associated with the cannon circumference (P = 4.60E-05) while no significant effect was found between another two SNPs and growth traits after the Bonferroni's correction (P*n < 0.05). Together, this is the first report about the influence of the PRNT gene on the growth of goat and g.117A > G can be regarded as a possible DNA marker applying for MAS breeding.

Stomach cancer burden in China: Epidemiology and prevention.

In 2020, stomach cancer was the fifth most commonly diagnosed cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Due to the relatively huge population base and the poor survival rate, stomach cancer is still a threat in China, and accounts for nearly half of the cases worldwide. Fortunately, in China, the incidence and mortality rates of stomach cancer presented a declining trend owing to the change of individual life styles and the persistent efforts to prevent stomach cancer from the governments at all levels. Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection, poor eating habits, smoking, history of gastrointestinal disorders, and family history of stomach cancer are the main risk factors for stomach cancer in China. As a result, by taking risk factors for stomach cancer into account, specific preventive measures, such as eradicating H. pylori and implementing stomach cancer screening projects, should be taken to better prevent and decrease the burden of stomach cancer.

Lung cancer burden and trends from 2000 to 2018 in China: Comparison between China and the United States.

Objective: This study aims to provide an analysis of the current status and trends of lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in China, comparing trends with those in the United States (U.S.). Methods: Data on lung cancer incidence and mortality rates spanning 2000 to 2018 were extracted from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database for China and the U.S., respectively. Crude incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex and age, with age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) calculated using the Segi-Doll world standard population. Trend analyses employed Joinpoint regression models to determine average annual percentage change (AAPC). The study also assessed the proportion of new cases and deaths by sex and age. Results: In 2018, the ASIR of lung cancer for males in China was 50.72 per 100,000 and the ASMR was 39.69 per 100,000, the ASIR for females was 26.25 per 100,000 and the ASMR was 15.24 per 100,000. Both ASIR and ASMR were higher in males and the highest in the population aged 65 years and older, with the lowest among those aged 20-49 years. In China, female ASIR demonstrated an increasing trend (AAPC: 1.16%), while ASMR decreased in both sexes (AAPCs: -0.48% for males, -1.00% for females). The U.S. exhibited decreasing trends in both ASIR and ASMR across sexes and age groups. Conclusions: The study identified an increasing trend in lung cancer incidence among females and a decreasing mortality trend in both sexes in China. These trends are likely linked to factors such as smoking prevalence, advancements in cancer screening, and improved medical care. The findings underscore the need for tailored lung cancer prevention measures in China, particularly the reinforcement of anti-smoking policies.

Assessment of the compliance, influencing factors, and yielding results of liver cancer screening in a high-risk population: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The participation and results for liver cancer screening are rarely reported. The aim of this study was to determine the participation rates and factors affecting participation rates as well as to report the detection rate for liver cancer in an organized screening program. METHODS: The organized screening program for liver cancer was conducted in 12 rural sites. The risk of developing liver cancer was initially evaluated for each participant. High-risk individuals were offered α-fetoprotein measurement and ultrasonography examination. Potential risk factors associated with the participation rate were screened by fitted generalized linear mixed logistic regression models through reporting odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: A total of 358,662 eligible participants completed the basic surveys, and 54,745 were evaluated to be at high risk of liver cancer. Of these high-risk individuals, 40,543 accepted the screening services. Determinants of participation for screening behavior included older age, being female, being positive for hepatitis B surface antigen, having a family history of liver cancer, chronic depression, and low income. The detection rate for liver cancer was estimated to be 0.41% (95% CI, 0.35-0.48). CONCLUSIONS: This study reported several significant factors associated with the screening behaviors for liver cancer. LAY SUMMARY: Participation rate and results for liver cancer screening in rural areas are rarely reported. The determinants associated with adherence rates and early detection rate of liver cancer in an organized screening program for liver cancer were assessed. A possible positive correlation between the participation rates and the early detection rate was observed among attendees of screening. These new finds could be beneficial to increasing the participation rate of screening.

Burden of liver cancer: From epidemiology to prevention.

In this review, we offer a concise overview of liver cancer epidemiology in China and worldwide from the official databases of GLOBOCAN 2020 and the National Cancer Registry in China. We also summarized the evidence for the main risk factors associated with liver cancer risk and discuss strategies implemented in China to control the liver cancer burden. Overall, liver cancer was the sixth most commonly diagnosed cancer and the third leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide in 2020. Although China contributed to nearly half of cases across the world alone, the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer presented a declining trend owing to the persistent efforts from the governments at all levels. The current liver cancer burden in China still faces an arduous challenge due to the relatively large population base as well as the substantially low survival rate (12.1%). To better control the liver cancer burden with the lowest cost, specific measures should be conducted by reducing exposure to established risk factors such as hepatitis B infection and aflatoxin. The promotion of surveillance is also an important method to prolong the survival of liver cancer. This review will provide basic information for future direction on the control of liver cancer burden.

Colorectal cancer burden, trends and risk factors in China: A review and comparison with the United States.

Objective: China and the United States (the U.S.) have the heaviest colorectal cancer (CRC) burden with considerable variations in temporal trends. This study aims to analyze the temporal patterns of CRC burden and its risk factors in China and the U.S. across the past three decades. Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study in 2019, including cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), age-standardized rate (ASR), and summary exposure value (SEV) of CRC in China and the U.S. between 1990 and 2019. Annual average percentage changes (AAPCs) of CRC burden were calculated using the Joinpoint regression model. The mortality in CRC attributable to potential risk factors was characterized by countries, gender, and age groups. Results: In 2019, there were 607,900 and 227,241 CRC cases, and 261,777 and 84,026 CRC deaths in China and the U.S., respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 30.55 per 100,000 in China and 41.86 per 100,000 in the U.S., and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 13.86 per 100,000 in China and 14.77 per 100,000 in the U.S. CRC incidence, mortality, and DALY rate in the U.S. showed downward trends in the past three decades (AAPC=-0.47, -1.06, and -0.88, respectively), while upward trends were observed in China (AAPC=3.11, 1.05, and 0.91, respectively). Among the cause of CRC, the leading risk factor contributing to CRC death was low milk in China and smoking in the U.S., respectively. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, the burden of CRC in China increased dramatically, particularly for males and middle-aged and elderly people. The management of the major risk factors associated with the high burden of CRC should be enhanced.

Characterizing the Conformational Distribution in an Amorphous Film of an Organic Emitter and Its Application in a "Self-Doping" Organic Light-Emitting Diode.

The conformational distribution and mutual interconversion of thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) emitters significantly affect the exciton utilization. However, their influence on the photophysics in amorphous film states is still not known due to the lack of a suitable quantitative analysis method. Herein, we used temperature-dependent time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopy to quantitatively measure the relative populations of the conformations of a TADF emitter for the first time. We further propose a new concept of "self-doping" for realizing high-efficiency nondoped OLEDs. Interestingly, this "compositionally" pure film actually behaves as a film with a dopant (quasi-equatorial form) in a matrix (quasi-axial form). The concentration-induced quenching that may occur at high concentrations is thus expected to be effectively relieved. The "self-doping" OLED prepared with the newly developed TADF emitter TP2P-PXZ as a neat emitting layer realizes a high maximum external quantum efficiency of 25.4 % and neglectable efficiency roll-off.

Detection of polled intersex syndrome (PIS) and its effect on phenotypic traits in goats.

Polled intersex syndrome (PIS), a physiological defect associates polledness and intersexuality, will directly affect the reproduction and other phenotypic traits of goats, thus, it is a hazard to the development of the goat industry. Recent studies have revealed that goat PIS was caused by an 11.7-kb deletion located in chromosome 1q43, but its DNA detection method was little reported. Herein, a total of 503 goats from three goat breeds were used to successfully establish a simple, rapid, accurate and effective method for the detection of goat PIS mutation. Furthermore, based on this assay, the associations between the PIS mutation and growth traits were analyzed in Guanzhong dairy goats. These findings would provide the potential practical application for molecular breeding to accelerate the development of the goat industry.

A deletion mutation within the ATBF1 gene is strongly associated with goat litter size.

AT motif-binding factor (ATBF1) is a transcription factor that suppresses carcinogenesis and induces neuronal differentiation, as well as it directly interacts with estrogen receptor (ER) and regulates progesterone receptors signaling. Thus ATBF1 gene will possibly greatly affect reproductive tratis in animals. According to our available findings, two indel (insertion/deletion) variants (12-bp indel; 6-bp indel) within the ATBF1 gene were found in Shaanbei White cashmere goats (SWCG). The objective of this work was to investigate their association with litter size in Shaanbei White Cashmere goat. The association analyses uncovered that ATBF1-12bp indel was strongly related to the first-birth litter size in SWCG population (n = 1195, P = 1.0 × 10-3). Individuals with DD genotype (n = 445) had the best litter size when compared with those of ID genotype (n = 420) and DD genotype (n = 330). Besides, Chi-square tests of different litter size individuals showed that multi-kids individuals had higher "D" allelic frequencies and "DD" genotypic frequencies (p < 0.01). These findings suggested the ATBF1-12bp deletion mutation was significantly associated with reproduction-related trait, suggesting that this deletion could be used as an effective molecular marker for litter size in goat breeding.

Development of a touch-down multiplex PCR method for simultaneously rapidly detecting three novel insertion/deletions (indels) within one gene: an example for goat GHR gene.

The multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method is fast and accuracy for screening several polymorphism loci in a single reaction in large samples. Therefore, this study aimed to identify three novel insertion/deletion (indel) loci in goat growth hormone receptor (GHR) gene by using multiplex PCR method and the genotypes in three indel loci are identified in 918 individuals from three Chinese goat breeds, as well as to evaluate its associations with growth traits. After validating the accuracy by taking the conventional PCR method, the concordance between these two methods was 100%. Moreover, P14 locus polymorphism was significantly associated with six growth traits of Hainan black goats. Briefly, an economic multiplex PCR method is presented to simultaneously and accurately detect three indel polymorphisms within goat GHR without the use of any special equipment, thus improving the experimental efficiency and fast obtaining the experimental result for indel genotyping.

Cancer profiles in China and comparisons with the USA: a comprehensive analysis in the incidence, mortality, survival, staging, and attribution to risk factors.

China faces a disproportionate cancer burden to the population size and is undergoing a transition in the cancer spectrum. We extracted data in five aspects of cancer incidence, mortality, survival, staging distributions, and attribution to risk factors in China, the USA and worldwide from open-source databases. We conducted a comprehensive secondary analysis of cancer profiles in China in the above aspects, and compared cancer statistics between China and the USA. A total of 4,546,400 new cancer cases and 2,992,600 deaths occurred in China in 2020, accounting for 25.1% and 30.2% of global cases, respectively. Lifestyle-related cancers including lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer showed an upward trend and have been the leading cancer types in China. 41.6% of new cancer cases and 49.3% of cancer deaths occurred in digestive-system cancers in China, and the cancers of esophagus, nasopharynx, liver, and stomach in China accounted for over 40% of global cases. Infection-related cancers showed the highest population-attributable fractions among Chinese adults, and most cancers could be attributed to behavioral and metabolic factors. The proportions of stage I for most cancer types were much higher in the USA than in China, except for esophageal cancer (78.2% vs. 41.1%). The 5-year relative survival rates in China have improved substantially during 2000-2014, whereas survival for most cancer types in the USA was significantly higher than in China, except for upper gastrointestinal cancers. Our findings suggest that although substantial progress has been made in cancer control, especially in digestive system cancers in China, there was still a considerable disparity in cancer burden between China and the USA. More robust policies on risk factors and standardized screening practices are urgently warranted to curb the cancer growth and improve the prognosis for cancer patients.

Cancer statistics for young adults aged 20 to 49 years in China from 2000 to 2017: a population-based registry study.

An increasing cancer incidence among adults younger than 50 years has been reported for several types of cancer in multiple countries. We aimed to report cancer profiles and trends among young adults in China. Data from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report were used to estimate incidence and mortality among young adults (ages 20-49 years) in China in 2017, and an age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2017. All 25 cancer types were grouped into obesity- or overweight-associated cancers (12 cancer types) and additional cancers (13 cancer types). In 2017, there were 681,178 new cases and 214,591 cancer deaths among young adults in China. Among young adults, the most common cancers were thyroid, breast, cervical, liver, lung, and colorectal cancer, and the leading causes of cancer deaths were liver, lung, cervical, stomach, breast, and colorectal cancer. From 2000 to 2017, the cancer incidence increased for all cancers combined among young adults, with the highest AAPC (1.46%) for adults aged 20-24 years, while cancer mortality decreased, with the highest AAPC (-1.63%) for those aged 35-39 years. In conclusion, the cancer incidence in China has increased among young adults, while cancer mortality has decreased for nearly all ages. Cancer control measures, such as obesity control and appropriate screening, may contribute to reducing the increasing cancer burden among young adults.

Attributable liver cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years in China and worldwide: profiles and changing trends.

OBJECTIVE: Liver cancer is a major health concern globally and in China. This analysis investigated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) with respect to etiologies and risk factors for liver cancer in China and worldwide. METHODS: Global and China-specific data were collected on liver cancer deaths, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. Liver cancer etiologies were classified into five groups and risk factors were categorized into three levels. Each proportion of liver cancer burden was calculated in different geographic regions. The joinpoint regression model were used to assess the trends from 1990-2019. RESULTS: Liver cancer accounted for 484,577 deaths worldwide in 2019 with an ASR of 5.9 per 100,000 population. China had an elevated liver cancer death ASR in 2019 and males had an ASR 1.7 times the global rate. The global ASR for DALYs peaked at 75-79 years of age but peaked earlier in China. Hepatitis B virus was the prominent etiology globally (39.5%) and in China (62.5%), followed by hepatitis C virus and alcohol consumption. In high sociodemographic index countries, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has gained an increasing contribution as an etiologic factor. The liver cancer burden due to various etiologies has decreased globally in both genders. However, metabolic risk factors, particularly obesity, have had a growing contribution to the liver cancer burden, especially among males. CONCLUSIONS: Despite an overall decreasing trend in the liver cancer burden in China and worldwide, there has been a rising contribution from metabolic risk factors, highlighting the importance of implementing targeted prevention and control strategies that address regional and gender disparities.

Esophageal cancer global burden profiles, trends, and contributors.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the global burden of esophageal cancer (EC) and determine the temporal trends and factors influencing changes in the global burden. METHODS: The latest incidence and mortality data for EC worldwide were obtained from GLOBALCAN 2022. The mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for EC from 1990-2019 were sourced from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases. Trends in EC mortality and DALYs attributable to 11 risk factors or clusters of risk were analyzed using the joinpoint regression model. The trends in age-related EC burden were assessed using a decomposition approach. RESULTS: An estimated 511,054 new cases of EC were diagnosed in 2022 with 445,391 deaths worldwide. Approximately 75% of cases and deaths occurred in Asia. Nearly 50% of global EC deaths and DALYs were attributed to tobacco use in men in 2019, while 20% were attributed to high body mass index (BMI) in women. From 1990-2019, EC deaths and DALYs attributable to almost all risk factors had declining trends, while EC deaths and DALYs attributed to high BMI in men had upward trends. The age-related EC burden exhibited an upward trend driven by population growth and aging, which contributed to 307.4 thousand deaths and 7.2 million DALYs due to EC. CONCLUSIONS: The EC burden remains substantial worldwide. Effective tobacco and obesity control measures are critical for addressing the risk-attributable burden of EC. Population growth and aging pose challenges for EC prevention and control efforts.

Personalized starting age of gastric cancer screening based on individuals' risk profiles: a population-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The current recommended starting age for gastric cancer (GC) lacks unified guideline and individualized criteria. We aimed to determine risk-stratified starting age for GC screening in China based on individuals' risk profiles, and develop an online calculator for clinical application. METHODS: In this multi-center population-based prospective study, we divided participants enrolled during 2015-2017 (n = 59,771, aged 40-69) into screened and unscreened groups and observed them for primary endpoints-GC occurrence, all-cause and GC-specific deaths. The median follow-up was 6.07 years. To determine the reference starting age, the effectiveness of GC screening was assessed by age-groups after propensity-score-matching. Further, we categorized the calculated individual risk scores (using well-established risk factors) by quantiles. Subsequently, we used age-specific 10-year cumulative risk curves to estimate the risk-stratified starting age-when the individual's risk level matches reference starting age risk threshold. RESULTS: During follow-up, 475 GC cases, 182 GC deaths and 1,860 all-cause deaths occurred. All-cause and GC-specific mortality decreased among screened individuals aged ≥45 and 50-59 years, respectively. Thus, the average population (reference) starting age was set as 50 years. The 10-year cumulative risk of GC in average population aged 50 was 1.147%. We stratified the starting age using eight risk factors, and categorized participants as low-, medium-, and high-risk individuals, whose risk-stratified starting age was 58, 50, and 46, respectively. CONCLUSION: While high-risk individuals warrant 3-5 years earlier GC screening than average population (age 50), low-risk individuals can tolerate delayed screening. Our online, personalized starting-age calculator will help risk-adapted GC screening (https://web.consultech.com.cn/gastric/#/).

Association between osteoprotegerin gene polymorphisms and cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetic patients.

Osteoprotegerin (OPG) gene polymorphisms (T245G, T950C and G1181C) have been associated with osteoporosis and early predictors of cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether these polymorphisms contribute to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetic patients. We performed a case-control study with 178 CVD subjects with diabetes and 312 diabetic patients without CVD to assess the impact of variants of the OPG gene on the risk of CVD. The OPG gene polymorphisms were analyzed by using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP). There was no significant association between the T245G and G1181C polymorphisms and CVD in the additive genetic model (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.64-1.45, p = 0.79; OR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.81-1.39, p = 0.65, respectively). However, the C allele of the T950C polymorphism was independently associated with a risk of CVD in type 2 diabetic patients in this genetic model (OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.07-1.80, p = 0.01). This study provides evidence that the C allele of the T950C polymorphism is associated with increased risk of CVD in diabetic patients. However, well-designed prospective studies with a larger sample size are needed to validate these results.

Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035.

BACKGROUND: Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends. METHODS: Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035. RESULTS: Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group. CONCLUSION: Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.