A validated Screening instrument for Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN) at the emergency department.

The objective of this study is to develop and validate a screening instrument for the recognition of child maltreatment in the emergency department (ED). Existing data on screening questions and outcomes (diagnosis of child maltreatment) from three large observational screening studies at eight different EDs in the Netherlands were harmonized. A multivariate logistic regression was performed to develop the Screening instrument for Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN). The SCAN was validated by performing a cross-validation and calculating the discriminative ability. A total of 24,963 patients were included. Out of the potential screening questions the following questions were included in the final instrument: is the injury compatible with the history, and does it correspond to the child's developmental level? (aOR 10.40, 95% CI 5.69-19.02), was there an unnecessary delay in seeking medical help? (aOR 3.45, 95% CI 1.73-6.88) and is the behaviour/interaction of the child and parents (carers) appropriate? (aOR 14.67, 95% CI 7.93-27.13). The SCAN had a pooled AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.63-0.87) in the cross-validation. The question "Are there other signals that make you doubt the safety of the child and/or family?" (available in only one of the original datasets, OR 182.9; 95% CI 102.3-327.4) was by consensus added to the final SCAN. CONCLUSION: This validated and brief Screening instrument for Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN) is designed to improve early recognition of child maltreatment in the ED. A positive screening result of the SCAN warrants a thorough work-up for child maltreatment, including a top-toe examination, if necessary additional diagnostics and adequate safety measures. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Screening instruments increase the detection of possible cases of child maltreatment in the emergency department and support health care professionals to identify these cases. • The application of different screening instruments led to the need for one brief validated instrument. WHAT IS NEW: • This study presents a validated and brief Screening instrument for Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN), consisting of four questions. • The SCAN supports professionals in detecting signals of child maltreatment, and a positive screening result should lead to a thorough work-up, including a top-toe examination, complete history, additional diagnostic tests and consultation of a child abuse expert.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV-based cervical screening based on first year results in the Netherlands: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to compare the cost-effectiveness of the old cytology programme with the new high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) screening programme, using performance indicators from the new Dutch hrHPV screening programme. DESIGN: Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. SETTING: The Netherlands. POPULATION: Dutch 30-year-old unvaccinated females followed up lifelong. METHODS: We updated the microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) model using the most recent epidemiological and screening data from the Netherlands. We simulated both screening programmes, using the screening behaviour and costs observed in each programme. Sensitivity analyses were performed on screening behaviour, utility losses and discount rates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates, number of screening tests and repeat tests, colposcopy referrals by lesion grade, costs from a societal perspective, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The new Dutch cervical cancer screening programme decreased the cervical cancer mortality by 4% and the incidence by 1% compared with the old programme. Colposcopy referrals of women without cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse, increased by 172%, but 13% more QALYs were still achieved. Total costs were reduced by 21%, mainly due to fewer screening tests. Per QALY gained, the hrHPV programme cost 46% less (€12,225) than the cytology programme (€22,678), and hrHPV-based screening remained more cost-effective in all sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The hrHPV-based screening programme was found to be more effective and cost-effective than the cytology programme. Alternatives for the current triage strategy should be considered to lower the number of unnecessary referrals. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: First results after implementation confirm that HPV screening is more cost-effective than cytology screening.

Contamination in control group led to no effect of PSA-based screening on prostate cancer mortality at 9 years follow-up: Results of the French section of European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC).

INTRODUCTION: European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) mortality results were reported for 7 European countries (excluding France) and showed a significant reduction in Prostate cancer (PCa) mortality. As those results have not been part of the global ERSPC results, it is of interest to report PCa mortality at a median follow-up of 9 years for French section of ERSPC. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Two administrative departments were involved in the study. Only men after randomization in the screening group were invited by mail to be screened by PSA testing with two rounds at 4-6 year intervals. Biopsy was recommended if PSA>=3.0 ng/mL. No information other that the French Association of Urology recommandations on the use of PSA was offered to the control group (own decision of physicians and patients). Follow up was based on cancer registry database. Contamination defined as the receipt of PSA testing in control arm was measured. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the Rate Ratio (RR) of PCa mortality and incidence in the screening vs. control arm. RESULTS: Starting from 2003, 80,696 men aged 55-69 years were included. The percentage of men in the screening arm with at least one PSA test (compliance) was 31%. Compared to the control arm, PCa incidence increased by 10% in the screening arm (RR=1.10; 95% CI=[1.04-1.16], P=0.001), but PCa mortality did not differ (0.222 and 0.215 deaths/1000 person-years; RR=1.03[0.75-1.42], P=0.9). DISCUSSION: Limitations include low participation rate. PSA testing in the control arm was observed in 32% of men (contamination). CONCLUSIONS: Contamination in control group led to no effect of PSA-based screening on prostate cancer mortality at 9 years follow-up. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Reasons for (non)participation in supplemental population-based MRI breast screening for women with extremely dense breasts.

AIM: To determine the willingness of women with extremely dense breasts to undergo breast cancer screening with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a research setting, and to examine reasons for women to participate or not. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 2011 and 2015, 8,061 women (50-75 years) were invited for supplemental MRI as part of the Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening (DENSE) trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01315015), after a negative screening mammography in the national population-based mammography screening programme. Demographics of participants and non-participants were compared. All invitees were asked to report reasons for (non)participation. Ethical approval was obtained. Participants provided written informed consent. RESULTS: Of the 8,061 invitees, 66% answered that they were interested, and 59% eventually participated. Participants were on average 54-years old (interquartile range: 51-59 years), comparable to women with extremely dense breasts in the population-based screening programme (55 years). Women with higher socio-economic status (SES) were more often interested in participation than women with lower SES (68% versus 59%, p<0.001). The most frequently stated reasons for non-participation were "MRI-related inconveniences and/or self-reported contraindications to MRI" (27%) and "anxiety regarding the result of supplemental screening" (21%). "Expected personal health benefit" (68%) and "contribution to science" (43%) were the most frequent reasons for participation. CONCLUSION: Of women invited for MRI because of extremely dense breasts, 59% participated. Common reasons for non-participation were "MRI-related inconveniences" and "anxiety regarding the result of supplemental screening". In case of future implementation, availability of precise evidence on benefits and harms might reduce this anxiety.

Cost-effectiveness of the Norwegian breast cancer screening program.

The Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) has a nation-wide coverage since 2005. All women aged 50-69 years are invited biennially for mammography screening. We evaluated breast cancer mortality reduction and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis, using our microsimulation model, calibrated to most recent data. The microsimulation model allows for the comparison of mortality and costs between a (hypothetical) situation without screening and a situation with screening. Breast cancer incidence in Norway had a steep increase in the early 1990s. We calibrated the model to simulate this increase and included recent costs for screening, diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer and travel and productivity loss. We estimate a 16% breast cancer mortality reduction for a cohort of women, invited to screening, followed over their complete lifetime. Cost-effectiveness is estimated at NOK 112,162 per QALY gained, when taking only direct medical costs into account (the cost of the buses, examinations, and invitations). We used a 3.5% annual discount rate. Cost-effectiveness estimates are substantially below the threshold of NOK 1,926,366 as recommended by the WHO guidelines. For the Norwegian population, which has been gradually exposed to screening, breast cancer mortality reduction for women exposed to screening is increasing and is estimated to rise to ∼30% in 2020 for women aged 55-80 years. The NBCSP is a highly cost-effective measure to reduce breast cancer specific mortality. We estimate a breast cancer specific mortality reduction of 16-30%, at the cost of 112,162 NOK per QALY gained.

Evaluation of the colorectal cancer screening Programme in the Basque Country (Spain) and its effectiveness based on the Miscan-colon model.

The population-based Basque Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening Programme started in 2009 with a biennial immunochemical quantitative test (FIT) biennial and colonoscopy under sedation in positive cases. The population target of 586,700 residents was from 50 to 69 years old and the total coverage was reached at the beginning of 2014. The aim of our study was to determine possible scenarios in terms of incidence, mortality and reduction of Life-years-Lost (L-y-L) in the medium and long term of CRC. METHODS: Invitations were sent out by the Programme from 2009 to 2014, with combined organizational strategies. Simulation was done by MISCAN-colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis) over 30 years comparing the results of screening vs no-screening, taking the population-based Cancer Registry into account. Lifetime population and real data from the Programme were used from 2008 to 2012. The model was run differentially for men and women. RESULTS: 924,416 invitations were sent out from 2009 to 2014. The average participation rate was 68.4%, CRC detection rate was 3.4% and the Advanced Adenoma detection rate was 24.0‰, with differences observed in sex and age. Future scenarios showed a higher decrease of incidence (17.2% vs 14.7%), mortality (28.1% vs 22.4%) and L-y-L (22.6% vs 18.4%) in men than women in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The Basque Country CRC Programme results are aligned to its strategy and comparable to other programmes. MISCAN model was found to be a useful tool to predict the benefits of the programme in the future. The effectiveness of the Programme has not been formally established as case control studies are required to determine long term benefits from the screening strategy.

The distribution of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) grade in 4232 women and its impact on overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has rapidly increased over time. The malignant potential of DCIS is dependent on its differentiation grade. METHODS: Our aim is to determine the distribution of different grades of DCIS among women screened in the mass screening programme, and women not screened in the mass screening programme, and to estimate the amount of overdiagnosis by grade of DCIS. We retrospectively included a population-based sample of 4232 women with a diagnosis of DCIS in the years 2007-2009 from the Nationwide network and registry of histopathology and cytopathology in the Netherlands. Excluded were women with concurrent invasive breast cancer, lobular carcinoma in situ and no DCIS, women recently treated for invasive breast cancer, no grade mentioned in the record, inconclusive record on invasion, and prevalent DCIS. The screening status was obtained via the screening organisations. The distribution of grades was incorporated in the well-established and validated microsimulation model MISCAN. RESULTS: Overall, 17.7 % of DCIS were low grade, 31.4 % intermediate grade, and 50.9 % high grade. This distribution did not differ by screening status, but did vary by age. Older women were more likely to have low-grade DCIS than younger women. Overdiagnosis as a proportion of all cancers in women of the screening age was 61 % for low-grade, 57 % for intermediate-grade, 45 % for high-grade DCIS. For women age 50-60 years with a high-grade DCIS this overdiagnosis rate was 21-29 %, compared to 50-66 % in women age 60-75 years with high-grade DCIS. CONCLUSIONS: Amongst the rapidly increasing numbers of DCIS diagnosed each year is a significant number of overdiagnosed cases. Tailoring treatment to the probability of progression is the next step to preventing overtreatment. The basis of this tailoring could be DCIS grade and age.

Overdiagnosis by mammographic screening for breast cancer studied in birth cohorts in The Netherlands.

A drawback of early detection of breast cancer through mammographic screening is the diagnosis of breast cancers that would never have become clinically detected. This phenomenon, called overdiagnosis, is ideally quantified from the breast cancer incidence of screened and unscreened cohorts of women with follow-up until death. Such cohorts do not exist, requiring other methods to estimate overdiagnosis. We are the first to quantify overdiagnosis from invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in birth cohorts using an age-period-cohort -model (APC-model) including variables for the initial and subsequent screening rounds and a 5-year period after leaving screening. Data on the female population and breast cancer incidence were obtained from Statistics Netherlands, "Stichting Medische registratie" and the Dutch Cancer Registry for women aged 0-99 years. Data on screening participation was obtained from the five regional screening organizations. Overdiagnosis was calculated from the excess breast cancer incidence in the screened group divided by the breast cancer incidence in presence of screening for women aged 20-99 years (population perspective) and for women in the screened-age range (individual perspective). Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer was 11% from the population perspective and 17% from the invited women perspective in birth cohorts screened from age 49 to 74. For invasive breast cancer and DCIS together, overdiagnosis was 14% from population perspective and 22% from invited women perspective. A major strength of an APC-model including the different phases of screening is that it allows to estimate overdiagnosis in birth cohorts, thereby preventing overestimation.

Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVES: Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. METHODS: Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant's semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. RESULTS: The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35% (95% confidence interval 30-40%) among survivors and 51% (44-58%) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). CONCLUSIONS: Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. KEY POINTS: • Lung cancer screening chest computed tomography contains additional, potentially useful information. • Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently predictive of mortality. • This finding has implications for screening and management decisions.

Predictors of HPV vaccination uptake: a longitudinal study among parents.

To assess among parents longitudinal predictors of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake for their daughters, random samples of parents were identified via municipal services and sent baseline questionnaires in June 2009 and follow-up questionnaires in November 2011 after their uptake decision. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis was used to assess whether demographic characteristics, and affective and social cognitive factors, predicted uptake at follow-up. Response rates of the baseline and follow-up questionnaire were 29.8% (1762/5918) and 74.3% (793/1067), respectively. Uptake was predicted by a later (2011) versus earlier (2010) decision about uptake as HPV vaccination implementation [odds ratio (OR) 2.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-5.52], anticipated regret about no uptake (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.08-1.89) and intention (OR 2.61; 95% CI 1.47-4.61). There was an interaction between ambivalence and attitude (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.14-2.47); parents with a positive attitude and a high ambivalence toward vaccination were more likely to have their daughter vaccinated than parents with a positive attitude and a low ambivalence. An informed choice about uptake (5/7 correct items) was made by 44%. In conclusion, uptake was predicted by intention, a later (2011) versus earlier (2010) decision and by anticipated regret about no uptake. Decisions regarding new vaccines are difficult to make, we recommend a well-balanced implementation process.

Treatment of local-regional prostate cancer detected by PSA screening: benefits and harms according to prognostic factors.

BACKGROUND: Men with screen-detected prostate cancer can choose to undergo immediate curative treatment or enter into an expectant management programme. We quantified how the benefits and harms of immediate treatment vary according to the prognostic factors of clinical T-stage, Gleason score, and patient age. METHODS: A microsimulation model based on European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer data was used to predict the benefits and harms of immediate treatment versus delayed treatment of local-regional prostate cancer in men aged 55-74 years. Benefits included life-years gained and reduced probability of death from prostate cancer. Harms included lead time and probability of overdiagnosis. RESULTS: The ratio of mean lead time to mean life-years gained ranged from 1.8 to 31.2, and the additional number of treatments required per prostate cancer death prevented ranged from 0.3 to 11.6 across the different prognostic groups. Both harm-benefit ratios were lowest, most favourable, for men aged 55-59 years and diagnosed with moderate-risk prostate cancer. Ratios were high for men aged 70-74 years regardless of clinical T-stage and Gleason score. CONCLUSION: Men aged 55-59 years with moderate-risk prostate cancer are predicted to derive greatest benefit from immediate curative treatment. Immediate treatment is least favourable for men aged 70-74 years with either low-risk or high-risk prostate cancer.

Immediate and delayed effects of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality and incidence in birth cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Trend studies investigating the impact of mammographic screening usually display age-specific mortality and incidence rates over time, resulting in an underestimate of the benefit of screening, that is, mortality reduction, and an overestimate of its major harmful effect, that is, overdiagnosis. This study proposes a more appropriate way of analysing trends. METHODS: Breast cancer mortality (1950-2009) and incidence data (1975-2009) were obtained from Statistics Netherlands, 'Stg. Medische registratie' and the National Cancer Registry in the Netherlands for women aged 25-85 years. Data were visualised in age-birth cohort and age-period figures. RESULTS: Birth cohorts invited to participate in the mammographic screening programme showed a deflection in the breast cancer mortality rates within the first 5 years after invitation. Thereafter, the mortality rate increased, although less rapidly than in uninvited birth cohorts. Furthermore, invited birth cohorts showed a sharp increase in invasive breast cancer incidence rate during the first 5 years of invitation, followed by a moderate increase during the following screening years and a decline after passing the upper age limit. CONCLUSION: When applying a trend study to estimate the impact of mammographic screening, we recommend using a birth cohort approach.

Likelihood of early detection of breast cancer in relation to false-positive risk in life-time mammographic screening: population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Women require balanced, high-quality information when making an informed decision on screening benefits and harms before attending biennial mammographic screening. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The cumulative risk of a false-positive recall and/or (small) screen-detected or interval cancer over 13 consecutive screening examinations for women aged 50 from the start of screening were estimated using data from the Nijmegen programme, the Netherlands. RESULTS: Women who underwent 13 successive screens in the period 1975-1976 had a 5.3% cumulative chance of a screen-detected cancer, with a 4.2% risk of at least one false-positive recall. The risk of being diagnosed with interval cancer was 3.7%. Two decades later, these estimates were 6.9%, 7.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The chance of detection of a small, favourable invasive breast cancer, anticipating a normal life-expectancy, rose from 2.3% to 3.7%. Extrapolation to digital screening mammography indicates that the proportion of false-positive results will rise to 16%. CONCLUSION: Dutch women about to participate in the screening programme can be reassured that the chance of false-positive recall in the Netherlands is relatively low. A new screening policy and improved mammography have increased the detection of an early screening carcinoma and lowering the risk of interval carcinoma.

To be screened or not to be screened? Modeling the consequences of PSA screening for the individual.

BACKGROUND: Screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) can reduce prostate cancer mortality, but may advance diagnosis and treatment in time and lead to overdetection and overtreatment. We estimated benefits and adverse effects of PSA screening for individuals who are deciding whether or not to be screened. METHODS: Using a microsimulation model, we estimated lifetime probabilities of prostate cancer diagnosis and death, overall life expectancy and expected time to diagnosis, both with and without screening. We calculated anticipated loss in quality of life due to prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment that would be acceptable to decide in favour of screening. RESULTS: Men who were screened had a gain in life expectancy of 0.08 years but their expected time to diagnosis decreased by 1.53 life-years. Of the screened men, 0.99% gained on average 8.08 life-years and for 17.43% expected time to diagnosis decreased by 8.78 life-years. These figures imply that the anticipated loss in quality of life owing to diagnosis and treatment should not exceed 4.8%, for screening to have a positive effect on quality-adjusted life expectancy. CONCLUSION: The decision to be screened should depend on personal preferences. The negative impact of screening might be reduced by screening men who are more willing to accept the side effects from treatment.

Chapter 7: Description of MISCAN-lung, the Erasmus MC Lung Cancer microsimulation model for evaluating cancer control interventions.

The MISCAN-lung model was designed to simulate population trends in lung cancer (LC) for comprehensive surveillance of the disease, to relate past exposure to risk factors to (observed) LC incidence and mortality, and to estimate the impact of cancer-control interventions. MISCAN-lung employs the technique of stochastic microsimulation of life histories affected by risk factors. It includes the two-stage clonal expansion model for carcinogenesis and a detailed LC progression model; the latter is specifically intended for the evaluation of screenings. This article elucidates further the principles of MISCAN-lung and describes its application to a comparative study within the CISNET Lung Working Group on the impact of tobacco control on U.S. LC mortality. MISCAN-lung yields an estimate of the number of LC deaths avoided during 1975-2000. The potential number of avoidable LC deaths, had everybody quit smoking in 1965, is 2.2 million; 750,000 deaths (30%) were avoided in the United States due to actual tobacco control interventions. The model fits in the actual tobacco-control scenario, providing credibility to the estimates of other scenarios, although considering survey-reported smoking trends alone has limitations.

Socio-economic inequality of utilization of cancer testing in Europe: A cross-sectional study.

There are currently screening programmes for breast, cervical and colorectal cancer in many European countries. However, the uptake of cancer screening in general may vary within and between countries. The aim of this study is to assess the inequalities in testing utilization by socio-economic status and whether the amount of inequality varies across European regions. We conducted an analysis based on cross-sectional data from the second wave of the European Health Interview Survey from 2013 to 2015. We analysed the use of breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer testing by socio-economic position (household income, educational level and employment status), socio-demographic factors, self-perceived health and smoking behaviour, by using multinomial logistic models, and inequality measurement based on the Slope index of inequality (SII) and Relative index of inequality (RII). The results show that the utilization of mammography (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.55, 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.50-0.61), cervical smear tests (OR = 0.60, 95%CI:0.56-0.65) and colorectal testing (OR = 0.82, 95%CI:0.78-0.86) was overall less likely among individuals within a low household income compared to a high household income. Also, individuals with a non-EU country of birth, low educational level and being unemployed (or retired) were overall less likely to be tested. The income-based inequality in breast (SII = 0.191;RII = 1.260) and colorectal testing utilization (SII = 0.161;RII = 1.487) was the greatest in Southern Europe. For cervical smears, this inequality was greatest in Eastern Europe (SII = 0.122;RII = 1.195). We concluded that there is considerable inequality in the use of cancer tests in Europe, with inequalities associated with household income, educational level, employment status, and country of birth.

Population-based mammography screening below age 50: balancing radiation-induced vs prevented breast cancer deaths.

INTRODUCTION: Exposure to ionizing radiation at mammography screening may cause breast cancer. Because the radiation risk increases with lower exposure age, advancing the lower age limit may affect the balance between screening benefits and risks. The present study explores the benefit-risk ratio of screening before age 50. METHODS: The benefits of biennial mammography screening, starting at various ages between 40 and 50, and continuing up to age 74 were examined using micro-simulation. In contrast with previous studies that commonly used excess relative risk models, we assessed the radiation risks using the latest BEIR-VII excess absolute rate exposure-risk model. RESULTS: The estimated radiation risk is lower than previously assessed. At a mean glandular dose of 1.3 mGy per view that was recently measured in the Netherlands, biennial mammography screening between age 50 and 74 was predicted to induce 1.6 breast cancer deaths per 100,000 women aged 0-100 (range 1.3-6.3 extra deaths at a glandular dose of 1-5 mGy per view), against 1121 avoided deaths in this population. Advancing the lower age limit for screening to include women aged 40-74 was predicted to induce 3.7 breast cancer deaths per 100,000 women aged 0-100 (range 2.9-14.4) at biennial screening, but would also prevent 1302 deaths. CONCLUSION: The benefits of mammography screening between age 40 and 74 were predicted to outweigh the radiation risks.

Prediction of higher mortality reduction for the UK Breast Screening Frequency Trial: a model-based approach on screening intervals.

BACKGROUND: The optimal interval between two consecutive mammograms is uncertain. The UK Frequency Trial did not show a significant difference in breast cancer mortality between screening every year (study group) and screening every 3 years (control group). In this study, the trial is simulated in order to gain insight into the results of the trial and to predict the effect of different screening intervals on breast cancer mortality. METHODS: UK incidence, life tables and information from the trial were used in the microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia to simulate the trial and predict the number of breast cancer deaths in each group. To be able to replicate the trial, a relatively low sensitivity had to be assumed. RESULTS: The model simulated a larger difference in tumour size distribution between the two groups than observed and a relative risk (RR) of 0.83 of dying from breast cancer in the study group compared with the control group. The predicted RR is lower than that reported from the trial (RR 0.93), but within its 95% confidence interval (0.63-1.37). CONCLUSION: The present study suggests that there is benefit of shortening the screening interval, although the benefit is probably not large enough to start annual screening.

The impact of a lung cancer computed tomography screening result on smoking abstinence.

Receiving a lung cancer computed tomography screening result might be a teachable moment for smoking cessation, but it might also unintentionally reassure smokers to continue smoking. The objective of the present study was to investigate whether test results were associated with smoking abstinence in the Dutch-Belgian Randomised Controlled Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NELSON trial). Two random samples of male smokers who had received either only negative test results (n=550) or one or more indeterminate test result (n=440) were sent a questionnaire 2 yrs after randomisation. Smokers with an indeterminate result reported more quit attempts (p=0.02), but the prolonged abstinence rate in smokers receiving a negative test (46 (8.9%) out of 519 subjects) was comparable with the abstinence rate in smokers with one or more indeterminate results (48 (11.5%) out of 419 subjects) (p=0.19). A statistically insignificant increase was found after one or more indeterminate test result (10.9 and 15.0%, respectively) compared with receiving only negative test results (8.9%) (p=0.26). In conclusion, the outcome of the screening test had no impact on future smoking abstinence in male smokers, although all results suggest more favourable implications after one or more follow-up recommendations. Screening test outcomes could be used as a teachable moment for smoking cessation.