Does personality matter? Exploring its moderating role on the relationship between neighbourhood ethnic outgroup-size and preferences for Brexit.

Prior research has examined the relationship between ethnic outgroup-size at the neighbourhood level and Brexit support, yet there is a lack of understanding on the factors that moderate these effects. This paper critically extends prior debate by focusing on how personality traits moderate not only the extent to which the levels (2011) of ethnic outgroup-size in individuals' residential neighbourhoods but also the increase thereof (2001-2011) are associated with individuals' preferences about the 2016 Brexit referendum. Using data from Understanding Society, we find that two personality traits, agreeableness and openness, are key moderators affecting the above-mentioned relationship. High-agreeable and high-open individuals are less likely than low-agreeable and low-open individuals to support Brexit. However, while the gap between low and highly agreeable individuals shrinks as ethnic outgroup-size increases, the gap widens between those higher vs. lower in openness. Our findings highlight the multifaceted role of personality traits as a driver of heterogeneous effects on political behaviour. In sum, this paper shows that analysing the complex and intertwined nature of both contextual and individual factors is fundamental for a better understanding, not only of the Brexit referendum but, more broadly, of anti-immigrant sentiment.

The Brexit puzzle: polity attack and external rebordering.

Brexit constitutes a puzzle for integration theory. Functionalist analyses have not only failed to predict the UK's exit but have also underestimated the disintegrative dynamics of the withdrawal negotiations. By contrast, postfunctionalism accounts for the disintegrative Brexit process but struggles to explain the unity and defence of supranational integration among the EU-27. This article tries to make sense of the Brexit puzzle. First, it argues that Brexit constitutes an attack on the EU polity rather than a policy failure - the type of crisis that functionalist theories explain best. Second, it complements the postfunctionalist account of domestic politicisation with an analysis of the reactions and strategies of the defenders of supranational integration. According to this expanded postfunctionalist analysis, the interaction of polity attack and polity defence has produced 'external rebordering': extreme disintegration of the UK from the EU, on the one hand, and strengthened integration of the EU-27, on the other.

Brexit - the EU membership crisis that wasn't?

This introduction to the special issue recalls the alarm raised in EU capitals and Brussels after the UK's in-out referendum delivered a Leave vote in June 2016. The fear was of a domino effect and the further fragmentation of an already divided EU. Seven years later, it is clear that there was rapid attrition of Eurosceptic triumphalism, and the EU-27 showed remarkable unity. This required a sustained collective effort to contain a membership crisis and maintain the EU polity. Yet, the issue contributors challenge the notion that the alarm was unfounded and explain why this counter-factual did not materialise, even though potential for future membership crises of different sorts was revealed. Theoretically, this supports an understanding of the EU as a polity that is fragile, yet able to assert porous borders, exercise authority over a diverse membership, and mobilise a modicum of loyalty when the entire integration regime is under threat.

Exiting after Brexit: public perceptions of future European Union member state departures.

Public opinion scholarship suggests that Europeans broadly interpret Brexit as a cautionary fable rather than an encouraging blueprint to follow. Yet, Brexit singularly demonstrates the possibility of European disintegration, and is but one of multiple recent crises that have brought the potential for member state departures into focus. Drawing on new survey data from 16 countries and using logistic regressions, this article charts Europeans' perceptions of the likelihood future EU exits over the next decade. It finds evidence of asymmetric motivated reasoning: Euroscepticism and pro-Brexit views strongly associate with perceiving exits likely, while among Europhiles this association is only ameliorated, not reversed. This reveals two gaps with repercussions for understanding EU public opinion dynamics. First, between Eurosceptic policy elites' softened policy stances on exit and their supporters' steadfast sense that further departures remain likely. Second, between Europhiles' scepticism of Brexit and a residual lack of confidence in EU cohesion.

A leader without followers: Tory Euroscepticism in a comparative perspective.

This article examines the rare phenomenon of mainstream Euroscepticism that has characterised the British Conservative Party and asks whether a similar pattern has appeared elsewhere in the EU. The study traces the long-term evolution of salience and positions on the EU issue in the manifestos of a heterogenous set of centre-right parties, paying particular attention to whether Brexit or successive EU crises have had some noticeable effect. The thesis of Tory exceptionalism is largely supported by the findings - no other mainstream conservative party in the EU has talked more, and more negatively, about the EU over a long time period. Most other centre-right parties were part of the permissive consensus on the EU and have supported, more or less openly, the integration project throughout the past 30 years. However, some parties of mainstream conservatism have shown a similar negative shift as British Conservatives did in the 2000s, such as the Austrian ÖVP, the Hungarian Fidesz, the Polish PiS and (marginally) the Dutch VVD. Being in opposition or pressured by radical right challengers does not necessarily make the mainstream right more critical of the EU. Internal organisational developments (i.e. the ascent of more Eurosceptic influences within the party) constitute the most convincing proximate explanation for mainstream Euroscepticism on the right.

Brexit, trade and the governance of non-communicable diseases: a research agenda.

BACKGROUND: The UK's post-Brexit trade strategy has potentially important implications for population health and equity. In particular, it will impact on the structural risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including the consumption of health-harming commodities such as tobacco, alcohol and ultra-processed food and beverages. This article catalogues recent developments in UK trade policy. It then presents a narrative review of the existing research literature on trade and health and previous, prospective studies on the health impacts of Brexit. In so doing it identifies key questions and foci for a future research agenda on the implications of UK's emerging trade regime for NCD prevention. MAIN TEXT: We identify five key areas for future research. (1) Additional scholarship to document the health effects of key trade agreements negotiated by the UK government; (2) The implications of these agreements for policy-making to address health impacts, including the potential for legal challenges under dispute settlement mechanisms; (3) The strategic objectives being pursued by the UK government and the extent to which they support or undermine public health; (4) The process of trade policy-making, its openness to public health interests and actors and the impact of the political and ideological legacy of Brexit on outcomes; (5) The impact of the UK's post-Brexit trade policy on partner countries and blocs and their cumulative impact on the global trade regime. CONCLUSIONS: Further research is urgently need to understand the ways in which the UK's post-Brexit trade strategy will impact on NCDs and policy responses to address these, including the openness of the trade policy architecture to health issues. The outcomes of this process will have wider systemic effects on the global trade regime with implications for health. Researchers must be cognizant of the ideological components of the policy debate which have been absent from previous analysis of Brexit, trade and health.

Divergent responses to local diversity: Outgroup differences and the impact of personality.

Research has shown that differences in personality can help explain attitudes towards immigration. Personality may also moderate the impact of local immigrant levels. Using attitudinal measures from the British Election Study, this research confirms the importance of all Big Five personality traits in predicting immigration attitudes in the UK and finds consistent evidence of an interaction between extraversion and local immigrant concentrations. In areas with high levels of immigrants, extraverted individuals are associated with more supportive immigration attitudes. Moreover, this study shows that the response to local immigrant levels varies by immigrant group. Levels of nonwhite immigrants and immigrants from predominantly Muslim countries are associated with greater levels of immigration hostility, whereas this is not the case for white immigrants or immigrants from Western and Eastern Europe. These findings demonstrate that an individual's response to local immigration levels depends on both their personality and the immigrant group in question.

Food shortages, stockpiling and panic buying ahead of Brexit as reported by the British media: a mixed methods content analysis.

BACKGROUND: On 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. From that date until the UK left the EU in January 2021, there were frequent warnings from industry and government sources of potential disruption to the food supply chain and possible food shortages. Over this period, the media had an important role in communicating on the potential impacts of Brexit. This study examines how food supply and demand, in the context of Brexit, was portrayed by the British media. METHODS: The study consisted of two components: (1) a quantitative analysis measuring frequency of reporting and information sources for articles on food supply and demand in the context of Brexit, in three daily newspapers, between January 2015 and January 2020; and (2) a content analysis exploring key themes and media framing of relevant issues in a subset of articles. RESULTS: Reports by the media about the impact of Brexit on the UK food system were largely absent in the six months before the UK voted to leave the EU in June 2016, increasing in frequency from mid-2018 onward, peaking in mid-2019 following the appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister. Five themes were developed from included articles: food shortages/panic buying (appearing in 96% of articles); food chain disruption (86%); economic impacts (80%); preparation and stockpiling by the government/food sector (63%) and preparation and stockpiling by individuals (22%). CONCLUSION: Government messaging sought to reassure the public that even under a worst-case scenario there would be no food shortages. These messages, however, contradicted warnings in the media of disruption to the food supply chain and food shortages. The media further reinforced this narrative of potential food shortages by reporting on the experiences of those preparing for Brexit by stockpiling food. The media must consider the impact of their messaging on public behaviour, as even imagined food shortages can instigate stockpiling and panic buying behaviour, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Multi-Criteria Framework for the Sustainable Management of Fisheries: a Case Study of UK's North Sea Scottish Fisheries.

In this paper, a sustainability framework with a case application for UK's Scottish fisheries has been developed which integrates aspects related to economic growth, social development, governance, biology, environment, and logistics. Scotland is the centre of UK's commercial fishery sector however it faces challenges such as overexploitation, and changes in the governance structure following Brexit. The contributions of this study are threefold including (i) collecting and analysing primary data gathered from a diverse group of stakeholders in the Scottish fishery sector and scientific community, (ii) prioritising a diverse range of criteria in terms of importance in decision making from industry and scientific community perspectives, (iii) elaboration of the key management objectives in this region within the context of sustainable management of fisheries in the UK.The results of this stakeholders' survey show that the key management objectives are reductions in overexploitation of stocks, inclusive governance, increase in transparency and simplicity of policy measures, reduction in marine litter, and increase in the efficiency of vessels. The analysis also shows that the industry group places a higher importance on socio-economic objectives such as increase in profit and employment compared to the scientific group. On the other hand, the scientific group prioritised the objectives such as reducing discards, bycatch, and impact on seafloor compared to the industry group. This study provides insight for the UK's fisheries sector, and scientific advisory groups for the enhanced implementation of sustainable fisheries management policies.

'Over to you': using a STAMP control structure analysis to probe deeper into the control of UK road safety at a municipal level - the case of Cambridgeshire.

The UK has seen little progress in reducing road death over the last decade and as a result, the government has been criticised by industry stakeholders for a lack of leadership, including the removal of national targets in 2011 and the devolution of powers to a municipal level. The aim of this paper is to understand how decision-making at a municipal level takes place from a systems perspective, using the case study of Cambridgeshire. Actors involved were mapped using a STAMP control structure analysis and highlighted a key role for formal and informal partnerships between local and national government agencies and non-government organisations at the same level in the control structure. The changing international context of the model for the UK is also discussed in relation to the UK's withdrawal from the European Union and provides a useful tool for future analysis of its effect on policy and decision-making. Practitioner summary: This paper uses a STAMP control structure analysis to understand how decision-making at a municipal level takes place from a systems perspective, using the case study of Cambridgeshire. It highlights a key role for formal and informal partnerships between organisations at the same level in the control structure. Abbreviations: STAMP: System Theoretic Accident Model and Processes; STAMP-CAST: Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes - Causal Analysis using Systems Theory; FRAM: Functional Resonance Analysis Method; HFACS: Human Factors Analysis and Classification Scheme; NGO: Non-Government organisation; iRAP: International Road Assessment Programme; EuroRAP: European Road Assessment Programme; NCAP: New Car Assessment Programme; CCG: Clinical Commissioning Group; GP: General Practitioner; PPE: Personal Protective Equipment; SD: standard deviation; Beds: Bedfordshire; Cambs: Cambridgeshire; Herts: Hertfordshire; Pboro: Peterborough.

Limits to growth? Key enrolment trends for UK transnational higher education, 2002-2021.

This article examines enrolment trends in UK transnational higher education since the early 2000s. During the first phase, which lasted until the mid-2010s, TNE enrolments grew rapidly but thereafter, during the second phase, levelled off very significantly. A third phase of high enrolment growth coincides with the departure of the UK from the European Union and the start of the Covid pandemic. The article focuses on medium-longer-term supply and demand factors which, collectively, are resulting in a marked slowdown in TNE enrolments at British universities.

The influence of extreme events such as Brexit and Covid-19 on equity markets.

In this article first, we show that the result that the PIIGS group had the largest negative unadjusted and abnormal returns on the day following the Brexit Referendum is robust to taking into account jointly other extreme events such as the Covid-19. Second, we provide evidence that the impact of the declaration of Covid-19 to be a global pandemic by the WHO - when global markets fell by nearly 15% - had a total different reaction in the financial markets to the one following the Brexit Referendum, impacting more negatively in countries where quarantine lockdowns were announced that day (i.e. Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Italy and Spain), independently on their debt-to GDP ratio. We also show that the day after Covid-19 was declared as a global pandemic, China and Japan (countries that already implemented lockdowns in the previous months) were the only analyzed countries that did not experience any evidence of abnormal returns in their financial markets. Moreover, during the three following days, the US was the only analyzed country showing no evidence of negative abnormal returns due to the declaration of the national emergency. These results suggest that government policies must take into account and monitor specially health-related news at global level, since they can have enormous impacts on portfolio allocations on stock markets, in order to take more informed decisions.

A Narrowing of the British Conservative Mind?

The Brexit referendum in June 2016 was a momentous event in British politics. It was also highly significant in the evolution of British conservatism, bringing to the fore a 'hard right' tendency. The hard right has framed the result as the initial stage of a counter-revolution against the liberal elite that, it feels, dominates the UK's key institutions. The rise of the hard right has concerned many, including even some conservatives, who see it as a nascent form of authoritarian populism. This commentary piece provides an overview of the fundamental narrative and ideas of the British hard right through some of its most prominent figureheads: Roger Scruton, Douglas Murray and Nigel Farage. It argues that while the hard right's ideas are not new, they are in process of dominating the British conservative movement to an unprecedented degree. As a consequence, other strands of conservative thinking are being marginalised. The article concludes by suggesting that the British hard right may have hubristically overinterpreted the Brexit result and recent Conservative Party electoral successes in 2019 and 2021, and this has led to a narrowing of the British conservative mind.

Brexit, the Rise of China, and the Future of the Liberal International Order and Great Power Competition.

In the last decade, the European Union (EU), a bulwark of the liberal international order, has been subject to a high degree of turmoil resulting from various processes and crises and has witnessed the rise of national populism, of which Brexit was the main exponent. The leadership of the order was also impacted by the changes in the foreign policy of the United States of America (USA) effected by the Trump Administration. The USA, the United Kingdom (UK), and the EU are the leaders of the liberal zone of peace and if national populism structurally affects them the liberal international order could be seriously challenged. Among the various instances of national populism, Brexit remains a significant challenge to the EU and might greatly impact the liberal international order. By adopting an interpretivist methodology anchored in hermeneutics and in the methodological approach of emergent causation, this article seeks to understand how Brexit, as an internal challenge to the order, and the rise of China and other revisionist powers, as an external one, might influence the future of the liberal international order and great power competition. I argue that the news of the order's death is greatly exaggerated, and that depending on British, German, and US variables, Brexit and the rise of China can either challenge or reinforce the liberal international order. Nevertheless, liberalism has a resilience no other political perspective has due to its innate ability for criticism and adaptation to change. Considering that the current liberal international order is a USA-led order, I argue that these are the two main variables concerning how Brexit might influence the liberal international order and how the order's leading powers will adapt their strategies and foreign policies towards China and other revisionist powers.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021. RESULTS: We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988. CONCLUSION: Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

Brexit and trade policy: an analysis of the governance of UK trade policy and what it means for health and social justice.

BACKGROUND: There is an extensive body of research demonstrating that trade and globalisation can have wide-ranging implications for health. Robust governance is key to ensuring that health, social justice and sustainability are key considerations within trade policy, and that health risks from trade are effectively mitigated and benefits are maximised. The UK's departure from the EU provides a rare opportunity to examine a context where trade governance arrangements are being created anew, and to explore the consequences of governance choices and structures for health and social justice. Despite its importance to public health, there has been no systematic analysis of the implications of UK trade policy governance. We therefore conducted an analysis of the governance of the UK's trade policy from a public health and social justice perspective. RESULTS: Several arrangements required for good governance appear to have been implemented - information provision, public consultation, accountability to Parliament, and strengthening of civil service capacity. However, our detailed analyses of these pillars of governance identified significant weaknesses in each of these areas. CONCLUSION: The establishment of a new trade policy agenda calls for robust systems of governance. However, our analysis demonstrates that, despite decades of mounting evidence on the health and equity impacts of trade and the importance of strong systems of governance, the UK government has largely ignored this evidence and failed to galvanise the opportunity to include public health and equity considerations and strengthen democratic involvement in trade policy. This underscores the point that the evidence alone will not guarantee that health and justice are prioritised. Rather, we need strong systems of governance everywhere that can help seize the health benefits of international trade and minimise its detrimental impacts. A failure to strengthen governance risks poor policy design and implementation, with unintended and inequitable distribution of harms, and 'on-paper' commitments to health, social justice, and democracy unfulfilled in practice. Although the detailed findings relate to the situation in the UK, the issues raised are, we believe, of wider relevance for those with an interest of governing for health in the area of international trade.

Stockpiling as resilience: Defending and contextualising extra food procurement during lockdown.

During the U.K.'s lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, both food shortages and stockpiling were well-publicised events. The U.K's food system has struggled and lockdown shortages are part of an ongoing trend of anxiety around the food system. Analysis of 19 interviews with people responsible for food procurement within households reveals that while shortages were often experienced for a number of weeks, stockpiling did not take the form of buying large quantities. Instead, modest extra procurement is a more appropriate description of food procurement during lockdown. This article maps six resilience strategies utilised by households in the U.K. during lockdown, of which extra procurement was just one.

The Difference between Approval Processes for Medicinal Products and Medical Devices in Europe.

The approval of new ophthalmic medical devices and medicinal products is governed by separate processes in Europe with different requirements, classifications, and timelines involved. For pharmaceuticals, companies can go through a centralized European-level process working with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) or a decentralized procedure working with a member state competent authority to gain approval or via mutual recognition. For medical devices, companies must work with a European Union approved Notified Body as there is no equivalent to the EMA. With medicinal products, approval can be sought as a new medicinal product, generic, known substance, or as an advanced therapy. With medical devices, the classifications are based on the use and complexity of the device as well as the risk, beginning with class I (surgical instruments and some diagnostic devices), to class IIA, class IIB, and class III, which are the most invasive devices, such as pacemakers and breast implants. From May 2021, the European Union will fully implement the Medical Device Regulation, which enforces increased requirements before class IIa and above devices can be CE marked. This process for approving medical devices and pharmaceuticals in Europe is designed to ensure that new technology is thoroughly vetted before becoming commercially available.

Brexit and European doctors' decisions to leave the United Kingdom: a qualitative analysis of free-text questionnaire comments.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative evidence suggests that Brexit has had a severe and negative impact on European doctors, with many medical staff leaving the UK. This study provides a detailed examination of European doctors' feelings towards Brexit, their intentions to leave the UK, and factors that may contribute to their potential decisions to migrate. METHODS: An online questionnaire which included three optional free-text questions explored self-identifying UK-based, European doctors' views of Brexit. The three questions prompted responses on how Brexit has impacted their personal lives, their professional lives, and their future migration decisions. Fifty-nine doctors participated in the questionnaire with 52 (88.1%) providing one or more responses to the three free-text questions. Twenty-seven doctors provided answers to all three free-text questions (51.9% of included sample). Thematic analysis was used to analyse this qualitative data. RESULTS: Brexit was reported by the majority of participants to have a profound impact, although some respondents felt it was too soon to assess the potential consequences. Five themes emerged including: feeling unwelcome in the UK, Brexit as racism, uncertainty on legal ability to work, strain on relationships, and in contrast, a current lack of concern about Brexit. CONCLUSIONS: To mitigate the adverse personal and professional impact of Brexit, healthcare providers should provide financial and legal support to doctors applying for settlement in the UK, ensure they are addressing issues of racial and ethnic inequality in hiring, promotion, and pay, and work towards making clinical work environments inclusive for all staff and patients.

Cognitive underpinnings of nationalistic ideology in the context of Brexit.

Nationalistic identities often play an influential role in citizens' voting behavior and political engagement. Nationalistic ideologies tend to have firm categories and rules for what belongs to and represents the national culture. In a sample of 332 UK citizens, we tested whether strict categorization of stimuli and rules in objective cognitive tasks would be evident in strongly nationalistic individuals. Using voting behavior and attitudes from the United Kingdom's 2016 EU referendum, we found that a flexible representation of national identity and culture was linked to cognitive flexibility in the ideologically neutral Wisconsin Card Sorting Test and Remote Associates Test, and to self-reported flexibility under uncertainty. Path analysis revealed that subjective and objective cognitive inflexibility predicted heightened authoritarianism, nationalism, conservatism, and system justification, and these in turn were predictive of support for Brexit and opposition to immigration, the European Union, and free movement of labor. This model accounted for 47.6% of the variance in support for Brexit. Path analysis models were also predictive of participants' sense of personal attachment to the United Kingdom, signifying that individual differences in cognitive flexibility may contribute toward ideological thinking styles that shape both nationalistic attitudes and personal sense of nationalistic identity. These findings further suggest that emotionally neutral "cold" cognitive information processing-and not just "hot" emotional cognition-may play a key role in ideological behavior and identity.