An extended time-varying Budyko framework for quantifying the hydrological effect of vegetation restoration under climate variations at watershed scale.

The Budyko framework, widely used to quantify the watershed hydrological response to the watershed characteristics and climate variabilities, is continuously refined to overcome the disadvantages of steady state assumption. However, dynamic variations in vegetations and climate variables are not fully integrated including coverages and precipitation regimes of intensity, frequency, and duration. To address this, we developed an innovative approach for determining the parameter ω in the Budyko framework to quantify the hydrological effects of vegetation restoration in a mesoscale watershed located in northern China. We found that fractional vegetation coverage (FVC), heavy precipitation amount (95pTOT), and the number of precipitation days (R01mm) are significant variables for estimating ω to improve the predictive capability of the watershed response. This extended time-varying Budyko framework can rigorously capture the temporal variations and underlying mechanisms of interactions between vegetation dynamic and precipitation regime partitioning precipitation (P) to R. Under the Budyko-Fu framework, compared to constant ω (ω‾) or ω that only considers FVC (ωP) or precipitation regimes (ωFVC) for simulating R, using ω that integrated FVC and precipitation regimes (ωP-FVC) can improve Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) by 24.81%, while reduced the root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative error (RE) by 64.08% and 65.77%, respectively. Although the increase in climatic dryness (PET/P) resulted in decreased R, the increase in FVC has also a significant contribution to this decrease due to vegetation restoration. We highlight that decrease precipitation intensity (95pTOT) and frequency (R01mm) amplified the hydrological effects of vegetation restoration, causing a 79.09∼100.31% increase in R compared to the independent impact of changes in FVC. We conclude that the extended time-varying Budyko framework by precipitation regime is more rigorous for quantifying the hydrological effects of ecological restoration under climate change and providing more reliable approach for adaptive watershed management.

A comprehensive assessment of runoff dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, southwest China.

The Chengbi River Basin is a typical karst watershed in Southwest China. Understanding the effects of climate change (CC) and human activities (HAs) on hydrological process is important for regional water resources management and water security. However, a comprehensive assessment of the effects of CC and HAs on runoff dynamics at different time scales in the Chengbi River Basin is still lacking. To address these needs, we used Budyko Mezentsev-Choudhurdy-Yang and Slope change ratio of accumulative quantity methods to assess the contribution of the changing environment to annual and intra-annual runoff changes in the Chengbi River Basin. The results indicated that annual runoff time series was divided into the base phase Ta (1980-1996) and the change phase Tb (1997-2019). Compared to the natural status in Ta, the relative contributions of CC and HAs to the runoff increase in Tb were 154.86% and -54.86%. In addition, the shift in intra-annual runoff occurred in 2007 and was mainly caused by HAs, with a contribution rate of 76.22%. The increase in annual runoff in Tb could be attributed to the positive contribution of rainfall. Changes in rainfall and reservoir construction altered the original state of intra-annual runoff. Furthermore, the high degree of heterogeneity in the surface karst zone increased the runoff coefficient. The spatial unsaturation of the subsurface water-bearing media and rainfall patterns caused a significant lag effect in the response of surface runoff to rainfall. This study can help researchers and policy makers to better understand the response of karst runoff to changing environment and provide insights for future water resources management and flood control measures.

Integrating the Budyko framework with the emerging hot spot analysis in local land use planning for regulating surface evapotranspiration ratio.

Land use planning regulates surface hydrological processes by adjusting land properties with varied evapotranspiration ratios. However, a dearth of empirical spatial information hampers the regulation of place-specific hydrological processes. Therefore, this study proposed a Local Land Use Planning framework for EvapoTranspiration Ratio regulations (ETR-LLUP), which was tested for the developments of spatially-varied land use strategies in the Dongjiang River Basin (DRB) in Southern China. With the first attempt at integrating the Emerging Hot Spots Analysis (EHSA) with the Budyko framework, the spatiotemporal trends of evapotranspiration ratios based on evaporative index and dryness index, from 1992 to 2018, were illustrated. Then, representative land-cover types in each sub-basin were defined using Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis, in two wet years (1998 and 2016) and three dry years (2004, 2009, and 2018), which in turn were identified using the Standard Precipitation Index. Finally, Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWRs) were used to detect spatially-varied relationships between land-cover proportions and evaporative index in both dry and wet climates. Results showed that the DRB was consistently a water-limited region from 1992 to 2018, and the situation was getting worse. We also identified the upper DRB as hotspots for hydrological management. Forests and croplands experienced increasingly water stress compared to other vegetation types. More importantly, the spatial results of GWR models enabled us to adjust basin land use by 1) expanding and contracting a combination of 'mosaic natural vegetation' and 'broadleaved deciduous trees' in the western and eastern parts of the basin, respectively; and 2) increasing 'broadleaved evergreen trees' in the upstream parts of the basin. These spatially-varied land use strategies based on the ETR-LLUP framework allow for place-specific hydrological management during both dry and wet climates.

The combined effects of anthropogenic and climate change on river flow alterations in the Southern Caspian Sea Iran.

In recent years, the effects of human activities and climate change on river flow patterns have become a major concern worldwide. This is particularly true in the southern Caspian Sea (SCS) region of Iran, where increasing water-intensive socio-economic development and climate change have significantly altered river flow regimes. To better understand these changes, this study employs two nonparametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall method (MK3) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), to examine spatial and temporal changes in hydrometeorological variables in the SCS. The study also evaluates the impact of human activities and climate change on river flow alteration using elasticity-based methods and the Budyko hypothesis in 40 rivers on the closest gauges to the Caspian Sea. The results indicate an alarming trend of increasing temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and decreasing river flows in the SCS region. In particular, human activities were found to be responsible for around 91.7 % of the change on average, resulting in a significant decline in inflow to the Caspian Sea by about 3216 MCM annually. This declining trend in inflow could potentially exacerbate the eutrophication conditions in the Sea and negatively impact its ecosystem and economics. Therefore, appropriate measures need to be taken to address these environmental and socio-economic issues in the southern Caspian Sea region.

A novel partitioning of gross primary production and water use efficiency for sustaining water and food security using Budyko hypothesis.

This study coupled the green water and blue water accounting with the existing standard Budyko framework and Fu's 1-parameter Budyko framework to diagnose the basin hydrological behavior. Both Budyko frameworks were employed to determine green water consumption (ETGreen) and blue water consumption (ETBlue) which, in turn, were used to map the blue water index (BWI) hotspots and green water index (GWI) bright spots. The relative contributions of green water and blue water were quantified for sustaining water and food security. A new methodology is proposed using BWI and GWI for partitioning the Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Water Use Efficiency (WUE) into GPPBlue, GPPGreen and WUEBlue and WUEGreen. The methodology was applied to five sub-basins of the Central Godavari River Basin (CGRB): Purna, Dhalegaon, GR Bridge, Yeli and Delta. Results showed that all five basins exhibited larger deviations from the theoretical Budyko curve of Fu's 1-parameter Budyko framework than did the standard Budyko framework and the Dhalegaon basin showed the largest deviations. The partitioning of GPP and WUE by the proposed methodology showed that the proportion of GPPGreen to the total GPP was much higher than that of the GPPBlue. Similarly, the proportion of WUEGreen to WUE was more than that of WUEBlue. The mapping of GPPBlue and GPPGreen, and WUEBlue and WUEGreen showed that the Delta and Yeli basins had the highest values of both GPPGreen & GPPBlue and WUEBlue and WUEGreen (bright spot basins) and the Dhalegaon and parts of GR Bridge basin had the lowest values (hot spot basins). The proposed partitioning of GPP and WUE will help identify the relative contributions of green water and blue water (for managing agricultural waters) and formulate agronomical and engineering practices for stakeholders and policy makers for increasing the overall WUE and GPP to sustain water and food security.

The runoff changes are controlled by combined effects of multiple regional environmental factors in the alpine hilly region of Northwest China.

The imbalance between the water supply and demand in arid and semiarid regions is becoming increasingly serious due to global warming and human activities. It is of great significance to reveal the variation characteristics of runoff and its main controlling factors for the sustainable management of regional water resources. However, few previous studies have considered the integrated effects of multiple control factors on runoff variation at different periodic scales. We collected meteorological and hydrological data from 1960 to 2019 in the Huangshui watershed and explored the correlation degree between runoff and regional environment factors such as precipitation (P), potential evaporation (ET0), mean temperature (T), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The wavelet coherence indicates that there was a high degree of positive phase consistency between runoff changes and P, ET0, T and NDVI at an approximately 12-month period scale, with lag times of approximately 1, 2, 1 and 0 months, respectively. The P was the single factor most closely related to runoff, and its combined with ET0 dominated the runoff change during the whole study period. The Budyko frame combined with elastic coefficient analysis showed that the climate change were the main reasons for the increase in annual runoff in change period I (1981-1990), and changes in the underlying surface due to human activities and vegetation variation was the main reason for the decrease in runoff in change period II (1991-2019). The wetter climate brought more rainfall input but this did not make runoff appear an obvious upward trend. Therefore, for alpine regions with sensitive and fragile ecological environment, the balance between human water consumption, vegetation ecological water demand, and precipitation should be weighed. The combination of wavelet coherence analysis and Budyko framework is helpful to better determine the potential driving factors of regional runoff change.

Assessment of the shift in the precipitation-streamflow relationship influenced by multiyear drought, Yellow River basin, China.

Climate change intensification (e.g., long-term drought) dramatically triggers catchment property changes, which introduces larger uncertainties for describing catchment hydrological behavior. In this study, hydrological behavior responses to multiyear drought were explored, and then causes were explained. The hydrological response to multiyear drought was explored using a magnitude of shift (M) in describing the relationship between precipitation (P) and streamflow (Q) in different catchment states, and a novel method, the trigonometric function decomposition method within the Budyko framework (the TFD method), was applied to assess the causes of Q changes. Several conclusions can be drawn: (i) multiyear drought mainly caused insignificant and significant upward (p < 0.05) changes in the P-Q relationship among 95.45 % of the studied catchments (p < 0.05); (ii) more server drying, lower leaf area index (LAI) and slope can induce a higher M via multiyear drought. In particular, catchment water storage, indicated by the deep soil layer in the Loess Plateau, can effectively mitigate the Q reduction and resulted in a 77.27 % (17/22) upward shift compared with the expected Q reduction; (iii) an asymmetric effect was caused by a multiyear P deficit, that is, (P-Q)/P increase and catchment property parameter (n) decrease were induced by the increases in ratio between potential evapotranspiration and P (Ep/P), suggesting that the catchment properties can mitigate the Q reduction; and (iv) catchment properties had negative effects on the Q reduction (7.76 mm a-1), and partially offset Q reduction (-21.32 mm a-1) resulted from climate change during the multiyear drought period. All of these results indicated that multiyear drought triggered Q reduction, while catchment behavior in the changeable induction mechanism induced a nonlinear Q response to P reduction, which is important for accurate Q projections and appropriate adaptation strategies for droughts.

Precipitation changes and its interaction with terrestrial water storage determine water yield variability in the world's water towers.

Previous studies have quantified the contributions of climate factors, vegetation, and terrestrial water storage change, and their interaction effects on hydrological process variation within the Budyko framework; however, further decomposition of the contributions of water storage change has not been systematically investigated. Therefore, focusing on the 76 water tower units of the world, the annual water yield variance was first examined, followed by the contributions of changes in climate, water storage change, and vegetation, as well as their interaction effects on water yield variance; finally, the contribution of water storage change on water yield variance was further decomposed into the effect of changes in groundwater, snow water, and soil water. The results showed that large variability exists in the annual water yield with standard deviations ranging from to 10-368 mm in water towers globally. The water yield variability was primarily controlled by the precipitation variance and its interacted effect with water storage change, with the mean contributions of 60 % and 22 %, respectively. Among the three components of water storage change, the variance in groundwater change had the largest effect on water yield variability (7 %). The improved method helps separate the contribution of water storage components to hydrological processes, and our results highlight that water storage changes should be considered for sustainable water resource management in water-tower regions.

Three-dimensional Budyko framework incorporating terrestrial water storage: Unraveling water-energy dynamics, vegetation, and ocean-atmosphere interactions.

The two-dimensional steady-state Budyko framework, widely used to study water-energy dynamics in landscapes, primarily focused on the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Though this framework has been extended by incorporating water storage changes into precipitation input for non-steady state conditions, the interactions among water-energy dynamics, vegetation covers, and ocean-atmosphere oscillations within the Budyko framework at finer spatial and temporal scales have been unexplored. This study aims to investigate the interactions of regional hydroclimatic conditions, vegetation, and climate teleconnections over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP), a region highly vulnerable to climate change. To achieve the objective, we propose a three-dimensional Budyko framework that incorporates the ratio of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) or its changes (TWSC) to precipitation (SI/SCI) as the third dimension alongside the traditional two-dimensional Budyko framework. Our findings reveal that TWS has a significant impact on the Budyko framework, particularly during the dry season. The dryness index (DI)/evaporative index (EI) and SI/SCI exhibit positive (strongly negative) linear relationships in the wet (dry) season, respectively. Vegetation covers strongly influence the three-dimensional Budyko framework, with poor performance observed in highly vegetated regions due to high ET demand. Through relative importance analysis, we identify the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) as the most influential climate teleconnection among nine different teleconnections, affecting hydroclimatic conditions over the ICP. Positive (negative) phases of SRP encourage water-limited (energy-limited) ET conditions. This demonstrates that the Budyko parameter is influenced not only by landscapes but also by climate teleconnections, offering potential benefits for Budyko parameter estimation. Furthermore, the linear relationships between DI/EI and SI/SCI in three-dimensional Budyko framework can provide a promising alternative method for evapotranspiration and groundwater estimation.

Topography regulates the responses of water partitioning to climate and vegetation seasonality.

This study investigates the relationships between water partitioning, climate and vegetation dynamics, and their influencing factors, using a method combining scenario analysis and a modified Choudhury's formula that considers climate and vegetation seasonality. Comparing the results in ten major catchments in southwestern China with similar climate and vegetation but drastically different topography, shows that the climate and vegetation seasonality jointly control the variance in the catchment parameter n of the Choudhury's formula (R2 = 0.81 ± 0.13), which determines the amount of water being depleted through evapotranspiration under a given climate. What's interesting is that the relationships among the parameter n, climate and vegetation seasonality are affected obviously by the catchment's properties, such as the POK (portion of karst landform), MS (mean slope) and MTWI (mean topographic wetness index), NDVI and aridity index (AI). Notably, the parameter n is affected more (less) by climate and vegetation seasonality in catchments with better vegetation and drier climate (with steeper topography). Moreover, the relative contribution from the changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) amount is negatively correlated to MS (r = 0.87, α < 0.05), and that from climate seasonality is positively correlated to MS (r = -0.81, α < 0.05), indicating that changes in P and PET amount are less important, but climate seasonality plays a more important role in controlling water partitioning in steeper catchments. The results demonstrate that the topography has an important role in influencing the responses of water partitioning to climate and vegetation seasonality.

Attribution Assessment and Prediction of Runoff Change in the Han River Basin, China.

The ecological environment and water resources of the Han River Basin (HRB) are incredibly susceptible to global warming. Naturally, the analysis of future runoff in HRB is believed to offer a theoretical basis for water resources management and ecological protection in HRB. The purpose of this study is to investigate and forecast the effects of climate change and land use change on runoff in the HRB. This study uses CMIP6 data to simulate three future climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) for changes in precipitation and temperature, a CA-Markov model to simulate future land use change scenarios, and the Budyko framework to predict future runoff changes. The results show that: (1) Between 1974 and 2014, annual runoff (R) and annual precipitation (P) in the HRB decline not so significantly with a rate of 1.3673 mm/a and 1.2709 mm/a, while maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) and potential evapotranspiration (E0) show a non-significantly increasing trend with 0.0296 °C/a, 0.0204 °C/a and 1.3313 mm/a, respectively. Precipitation is considered as main contributor to the decline in Han River runoff, accounting for 54.1%. (2) In the HRB, overall precipitation and temperature are estimated to rise in the coming years, with all other hydrological variables. The comparison of precipitation rise under each scenario is as follows: SSP126 scenario > SSP585 scenario > SSP245 scenario. The comparison of the temperature increase under each scenario is as follows: SSP585 scenario > SSP245 scenario > SSP126 scenario. (3) In the HRB, farmland and grassland land will continue to decline in the future. The amount of forest acreage is projected to decline but not so significantly. (4) The future runoff of the HRB shows an increasing trend, and the future runoff varies in different scenarios and periods. Under the land use scenarios of maintaining LUCC1992-2014 and LUCC2040 and LUCC2060, the R change rates in 2015-2040 are 8.27-25.47% and -8.04-19.35%, respectively, and the R in 2040-2060 are 2.09-13.66% and 19.35-31.52%. At the same time, it is very likely to overestimate the future runoff of the HRB without considering the changes in the land use data of the underlying surface in the future.

Uncertainty of runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Amazon River basin.

We employ the approach of Roderick and Farquhar (2011) to assess the sensitivity of runoff (R) given changes in precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (Ep ), and other properties that change the partitioning of P (n) by estimating coefficients that predict the weight of each variable in the relative change of R. We use this framework using different data sources and products for P, actual evapotranspiration (E), and Ep within the Amazon River basin to quantify the uncertainty of the hydrologic response at the subcatchment scale. We show that when estimating results from the different combinations of datasets for the entire river basin (at Óbidos), a 10% increase in P would increase R on average 16%, while a 10% increase in Ep would decrease R about 6%. In addition, a 10% change in the parameter n would affect the hydrological response of the entire basin around 5%. However, results change from catchment to catchment and are dependent on the combination of datasets. Finally, results suggest that enhanced estimates of E and Ep are needed to improve our understanding of the future scenarios of hydrological sensitivity with implications for the quantification of climate change impacts at the regional (subcatchment and subbasin) scale in Amazonia.

Watershed water-energy balance dynamics and their association with diverse influencing factors at multiple time scales.

The Budyko parameter, which controls the shape of Budyko curve, represents the superimposed impact of various periodic factors (including climatic factors, catchment characteristics, large-scale climate patterns, solar activity and anthropogenic activity) on the watershed water-energy balance dynamics. However, this superimposition is not conducive to identifying the drivers of Budyko parameter dynamics at different time scales, and thus affects parameter estimation. Here we obtain the Budyko parameter ω in the Fu's equation (one form of the Budyko framework) for the Wei River Basin (WRB), and then adopt the Empirical Mode Decomposition method to reveal the relationships between factors and ω series at multiple time scales by considering the interplay among different influencing factors. Results indicate that (1) ω series are decomposed into 4-, 12-, 20-, exceeding 20-year time scale oscillations and a residual component with an significantly increasing trend in the mainstream of the WRB, a non-significantly decreasing trend in the Jing River Basin and Beiluo River Basin; (2) by analyzing the residual trend component, evaporation ratio, soil moisture and effective irrigated area are found to induce the significant increase of ω in the upstream of the WRB, whereas that in the middle and lower reaches is dominated by baseflow and Niño 3.4; (3) ω dynamics at the 4-year time scale is dominated by evaporation ratio, aridity index, baseflow and soil moisture; baseflow, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sunspots attribute to the dynamics at 12-year time scale; all the factors except baseflow and soil moisture contribute to the dynamics at 20- or exceeding 20-year time scales. The results of this study will help identify the connection between watershed water-energy balance dynamics and changing environment at multiple time scales, and also be beneficial for guiding water resources management and ecological development planning on the Loess Plateau.

Improving agricultural water use efficiency with biochar - A synthesis of biochar effects on water storage and fluxes across scales.

There is an urgent need to develop agricultural methods that balance water supply and demand while at the same time improve resilience to climate variability. A promising instrument to address this need is biochar - a charcoal made from pyrolyzed organic material. However, it is often unclear how, if at all, biochar improves soil water availability, plant water consumption rates and crop yields. To address this question, we synthesized literature-derived observational data and evaluated the effects of biochar on evapotranspiration using a minimal soil water balance model. Results from the model were interpreted in the Budyko framework to assess how climatic conditions mediate the impacts of biochar on water fluxes. Our analysis of literature-derived observational data showed that while biochar addition generally increases the soil water holding capacity, it can have variable impacts on soil water retention relative to control conditions. Our modelling demonstrated that biochar increases long-term evapotranspiration rates, and therefore plant water availability, by increasing soil water retention capacity - especially in water-limited regions. Biochar amendments generally increased crop yields (75% of the compiled studies) and, in several cases (35% of the compiled studies), biochar amendments simultaneously increased crop yield and water use efficiencies. Hence, while biochar amendments are promising, the potential for variable impact highlights the need for targeted research on how biochar affects the soil-plant-water cycle.

Actual ET modelling based on the Budyko framework and the sustainability of vegetation water use in the loess plateau.

Jointly influenced by the natural factors and the artificial protection measures, the ecological environment of Loess Plateau has been significantly improved in recent years, but which has already brought about some water-related problems. To maintain the balance between precipitation and water consumption is an important foundation for sustainable development of the ecology remediation. This study used Budyko Framework to simulate the actual water consumption of 161 sub-basins from 1990 to 2014. Based on the simulation results, the research also analyzed the evolution characteristics of water balance in Loess Plateau from 1990 to 2014. Results show that, with the increase of vegetation coverage, the regional precipitation and actual evapotranspiration were both showing a significant increasing trend, and the increasing rate of precipitation was 1.91mm/a on average, which was greater than the increasing rate of actual evapotranspiration of 1.34mm/a. To further demonstrate the water balance regime in Loess Plateau, the evapotranspiration coefficient (ECC) was used to quantitatively indicate the ratio of the vegetation water consumption and the total precipitation. The average values of ECC were 0.868, 0.863, 0.851 and 0.837 respectively in four sub-periods of 1990-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014. The above analyses indicate that with the vegetation recovery and ecological restoration, the percentage of evapotranspiration in the total precipitation is keeping decreasing and in turn the percentage of water yield in the total precipitation is keeping increasing. Consequently, it seems more sustainable for vegetation water use in most areas of Loess Plateau currently.