The potential impact fraction of population weight reduction scenarios on non-communicable diseases in Belgium: application of the g-computation approach.

BACKGROUND: Overweight is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Europe, affecting almost 60% of all adults. Tackling obesity is therefore a key long-term health challenge and is vital to reduce premature mortality from NCDs. Methodological challenges remain however, to provide actionable evidence on the potential health benefits of population weight reduction interventions. This study aims to use a g-computation approach to assess the impact of hypothetical weight reduction scenarios on NCDs in Belgium in a multi-exposure context. METHODS: Belgian health interview survey data (2008/2013/2018, n = 27 536) were linked to environmental data at the residential address. A g-computation approach was used to evaluate the potential impact fraction (PIF) of population weight reduction scenarios on four NCDs: diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and musculoskeletal (MSK) disease. Four scenarios were considered: 1) a distribution shift where, for each individual with overweight, a counterfactual weight was drawn from the distribution of individuals with a "normal" BMI 2) a one-unit reduction of the BMI of individuals with overweight, 3) a modification of the BMI of individuals with overweight based on a weight loss of 10%, 4) a reduction of the waist circumference (WC) to half of the height among all people with a WC:height ratio greater than 0.5. Regression models were adjusted for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and environmental factors. RESULTS: The first scenario resulted in preventing a proportion of cases ranging from 32.3% for diabetes to 6% for MSK diseases. The second scenario prevented a proportion of cases ranging from 4.5% for diabetes to 0.8% for MSK diseases. The third scenario prevented a proportion of cases, ranging from 13.6% for diabetes to 2.4% for MSK diseases and the fourth scenario prevented a proportion of cases ranging from 36.4% for diabetes to 7.1% for MSK diseases. CONCLUSION: Implementing weight reduction scenarios among individuals with excess weight could lead to a substantial and statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and musculoskeletal (MSK) diseases in Belgium. The g-computation approach to assess PIF of interventions represents a straightforward approach for drawing causal inferences from observational data while providing useful information for policy makers.

Health implications of urban tree canopy policy scenarios in Denver and Phoenix: A quantitative health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Urban tree canopy (UTC) goals are a popular policy to increase urban vegetation, support climate strategies, and encourage a healthy environment. Health studies related to UTC are needed across cities to support evidence-based decision-making. METHODS: We used a quantitative Health Impact Assessment (HIA) to model the annual number of premature deaths prevented, and the number of stroke and dementia cases, under UTC goals in Denver, Colorado, and Phoenix, Arizona, USA, using standing policy goals (20% and 25% UTC, respectively) and 50% ("half-way") attainment scenarios from current levels (16.5% and 13% UTC, respectively), using publicly accessible national datasets, and a proportional representation of UTC change to standardize across methodologies. We estimated UTC health impacts by relating UTC with scenario-based changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and considered health equity in UTC distributions and benefits. RESULTS: We projected that at 2020 populations, uniform 20% UTC attainment across Denver block groups would avert 200 (95% uncertainty interval: (UI) 100, 306) annual premature deaths among adults 18 and older, along with 4.1 (95% UI: 2.2, 6.7) annual cases of stroke (adults ≥35), and 2.6 (95% UI: 1.5, 4.1) cases of dementia (adults ≥65), with "halfway" attainment from current levels (16.5% UTC) capturing ∼64% of these benefits. In Phoenix, uniform 25% UTC would annually prevent 368 (95% UI: 181, 558) premature deaths, 8.7 (95% UI: 4.7, 13.9) cases of stroke, and 5,1 (95% UI: 2.9, 8.0) of dementia, with the "halfway" scenario (17% UTC) achieving ∼44% of these results. Both cities saw significantly different greenspace exposures and health outcomes by socioeconomic vulnerability. Denver had more spatially and socioeconomically heterogeneous projected health benefits than Phoenix. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing UTC goals can prevent excess mortality and chronic diseases among urban residents. UTC goals can be used as a health promotion and prevention tool.

Ambient PM2.5 exposure and rapid population aging: A double threat to public health in the Republic of Korea.

Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) can infiltrate deep into the respiratory system, posing significant health risks. Notably, the health burden of PM2.5 is more pronounced among the older adult population. With an aging population, the public health burden attributable to PM2.5 could escalate even if the current PM2.5 level remains stable. This study evaluated the number of deaths attributable to long-term PM2.5 exposure in the Republic of Korea between 2020 and 2050 and identified the PM2.5 concentration required at least to maintain the current PM2.5 health burden. To calculate mortality for 2020-2050, we performed a health impact assessment using 3-year (2019-2021) average population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations, age-specific population and mortality rates. In 2020, 33,578 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 31,708-35,448] deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Projecting forward, if the 2019-2021 average PM2.5 level remains constant, mortality is projected to be 112,953 (95% CI = 109,963-115,943) in 2050, more than three times higher than in 2020. To maintain the same level of health burden in 2050 as in 2020, the PM2.5 concentration needs to be immediately reduced to 5.8 µg/m3. In an age-specific analysis, the proportion of older adults (ages 65+) to total mortality would increase from 83% (2020) to 96% (2050), indicating that the rising mortality is predominantly driven by the aging population. By region, the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations, which is required immediately in 2020 to have the health burden in 2050 equal to that in 2020, varied from 3.6 µg/m3 in Goheung-gun (25% reduction) to 20.8 µg/m3 in Heungdeok-gu (82% reduction). Our study emphasizes the critical need for air quality management to consider aging populations when establishing PM2.5 air quality standards, as well as their associated policies and regulations.

Urban green spaces and behavioral and cognitive development in children: A health impact assessment of the Barcelona "Eixos Verds" Plan (Green Axis Plan).

BACKGROUND: Urban environments lack natural features, while nature exposure in cities has been associated with health benefits, including children's neurodevelopment. Through extensive street greening, Barcelona's Eixos Verds (Green Axis) Plan enhances safety, environment, and climate resilience. We aimed to assess the Eixos Verds Plan's potential impact on children's behavioral and cognitive development due to the increased green space expected under the Eixos Verds implementation. METHODS: We performed a quantitative health impact assessment for Barcelona children at census-tract level (n = 1068). We assessed the Eixos Verds Plan's impact by comparing baseline green space distribution with the proposed plan, translating it into percentage green area (%GA) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). By combining these exposure metrics with child-specific risk estimates and population data, we estimated potential improvements in children's behavioral and cognitive development due to full Eixos Verds implementation. RESULTS: With the full Eixos Verds implementation, citywide, %GA increased by 6.9% (IQR: 6.4%; range: 0-23.1%) and NDVI by 0.065 (IQR: 0.083; range: 0.000-0.194). Child behavioral and cognitive development outcomes are expected to improve compared to the baseline. Based on NDVI increases, children's Total Difficulties and Hyperactivity/Inattention scores, based on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), are projected to decrease by 5% (95% CI: 0-15%) and 6% (95% CI: 0-17%). Working Memory and Superior Working Memory scores are expected to increase by 4% and 5%, respectively, based on the computerized n-back test, while the Inattentiveness score could be reduced by 1%, based on the computerized attentional test (ANT). INTERPRETATION: Urban greening as planning tool can improve behavioral and cognitive development in city children. Methods and results of our study are applicable to many cities worldwide, and similar results for children of real-life urban greening interventions can be expected.

A novel approach to deriving the fine-scale daily NO2 dataset during 2005-2020 in China: Improving spatial resolution and temporal coverage to advance exposure assessment.

Surface NO2 pollution can result in serious health consequences such as cardiovascular disease, asthma, and premature mortality. Due to the extensive spatial variation in surface NO2, the spatial resolution of a NO2 dataset has a significant impact on the exposure and health impact assessment. There is currently no long-term, high-resolution, and publicly available NO2 dataset for China. To fill this gap, this study generated a NO2 dataset named RBE-DS-NO2 for China during 2005-2020 at 1 km and daily resolution. We employed the robust back-extrapolation via a data augmentation approach (RBE-DA) to ensure the predictive accuracy in back-extrapolation before 2013, and utilized an improved spatial downscaling technique (DS) to refine the spatial resolution from 10 km to 1 km. Back-extrapolation validation based on 2005-2012 observations from sites in Taiwan province yielded an R2 of 0.72 and RMSE of 10.7 µg/m3, while cross-validation across China during 2013-2020 showed an R2 of 0.73 and RMSE of 9.6 µg/m3. RBE-DS-NO2 better captured spatiotemporal variation of surface NO2 in China compared to the existing publicly available datasets. Exposure assessment using RBE-DS-NO2 show that the population living in non-attainment areas (NO2 ≥ 30 µg/m3) grew from 376 million in 2005 to 612 million in 2012, then declined to 404 million by 2020. Unlike this national trend, exposure levels in several major cities (e.g., Shanghai and Chengdu) continued to increase during 2012-2020, driven by population growth and urban migration. Furthermore, this study revealed that low-resolution dataset (i.e., the 10 km intermediate dataset before the downscaling) overestimated NO2 levels, due to the limited specificity of the low-resolution model in simulating the relationship between NO2 and the predictor variables. Such limited specificity likely biased previous long-term NO2 exposure and health impact studies employing low-resolution datasets. The RBE-DS-NO2 dataset enables robust long-term assessments of NO2 exposure and health impacts in China.

Increase in sick leave episodes from short-term fine particulate matter exposure: A case-crossover study in Stockholm, Sweden.

Air pollution's short-term effects on a wide range of health outcomes have been studied extensively, primarily focused on vulnerable groups (e.g., children and the elderly). However, the air pollution effects on the adult working population through sick leave have received little attention. This study aims to 1) estimate the associations between particulate matter ≤2.5 µm3 (PM2.5) and sick leave episodes and 2) calculate the attributable number of sick leave days and the consequential productivity loss in the City of Stockholm, Sweden. Individual level daily sick leave data was obtained from Statistics Sweden for the years 2011-2019. Daily average concentrations of PM2.5 were obtained from the main urban background monitoring station in Stockholm. A case-crossover study design was applied to estimate the association between short-term PM2.5 and onset of sick leave episodes. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the relative increase in odds of onset per 10 µg/m3 of PM2.5, adjusting for temperature, season, and pollen. A human capital method was applied to estimate the PM2.5 attributable productivity loss. In total, 1.5 million (M) individual sick leave occurrences were studied. The measured daily mean PM2.5 concentration was 4.2 µg/m3 (IQR 3.7 µg/m3). The odds of a sick leave episode was estimated to increase by 8.5% (95% CI: 7.8-9.3) per 10 µg/m3 average exposure 2-4 days before. Sub-group analysis showed that private sector and individuals 15-24 years old had a lower increase in odds of sick leave episodes in relation to PM2.5 exposure. In Stockholm, 4% of the sick leave episodes were attributable to PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to €17 M per year in productivity loss. Our study suggests a positive association between PM2.5 and sick leave episodes in a low exposure area.

Perspectives on connecting climate change and health.

Over the past century, the Earth's climate has undergone rapid and unprecedented changes, manifested in a noticeable increase in average global temperature. This has led to shifts in precipitation patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events (e.g. hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts and floods), alterations in ecosystems, and rising sea levels, impacting both natural environments and human societies, health and wellbeing. Without deep and urgent emission cuts and effective adaptation, the toll of climate change on human health and wellbeing is likely to grow. Here, we address the complex relationship between climate change and health, and discuss ways forward for transdisciplinary research and collaboration that can motivate more ambitious mitigation policies and help develop solutions to adapt to the crisis.

Acceptability of self-administered antigen test for COVID-19 in the Philippines.

OBJECTIVES: In response to the Omicron surge in early 2022, the HTA Philippines evaluated the acceptability of Filipinos in using self-administered antigen tests (SAAgTs) as part of COVID-19 HTAs in the Philippines. METHODS: Scoping review from literature databases was initially conducted to identify preset codes in the use of SAAgT. Preset codes were used to establish the questions for focus group discussions (FGDs). Semi-structured questionnaires were created through Delphi technique. FGDs with four stakeholder groups (i.e., nine healthcare workers [HCWs], seven representatives of at-risk groups, six economic frontliners, and seven representatives of micro-small-medium-sized enterprises) were conducted. RESULTS: Discomfort in being a target of stigma and being prescribed an "illness identity" when suspected or confirmed COVID-19-positive, along with lack of confidence to perform self-test, caused hesitancy in self-testing among participants. The need for subsidies for test kits from the government or employers was emphasized to increase its accessibility. Having a designated access point and reporting system for SAAgT was highlighted to avoid nepotism (padrino system attributed to debt of gratitude), inequitable distribution, and lapses in reporting. A participatory approach to education was perceived as crucial to reduce any misconceptions associated with the use of SAAgT. CONCLUSIONS: All FGD groups expressed favorable reviews on the implementation of SAAgT because it can potentially reduce the burden of health facility-administered tests. These findings were considered by the HTA Council in the recommendation of SAAgT as part of the overarching national strategies for the diagnosis and screening of COVID-19.

Effects of Community-Wide Teen Pregnancy Prevention Initiatives on Local Teen Birth Rates in the United States: A Synthetic Control Approach.

The impact of community-wide teen pregnancy prevention initiatives (CWIs) on local U.S. birth rates among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years was examined using synthetic control methodology within a quasi-experimental design. CWIs were implemented in 10 U.S. communities from 2010 to 2015. Each initiative implemented evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention interventions at local organizations and enhanced best practices in adolescent reproductive health care at local health centers, while engaging diverse community sectors. The synthetic control method was used to estimate the impact of each CWI on overall and race- and ethnicity-specific teen births relative to rates in synthetic control communities. Additionally, we estimated the overall effect of CWIs across communities by pooling results from the 10 synthetic control case studies using the mean percentile rank. Pooled data across all 10 communities indicated an estimated average of 6.6 fewer births per 1000 teens per year overall during the initiative relative to each community's synthetic control (p = .001). By race and ethnicity, there were an estimated average of 6.4 fewer births per 1000 teens per year among Black teens (p = .03), 10.7 fewer births among Hispanic teens (p = .03), and 4.2 fewer births (p = .10) among White teens. Results from individual communities indicated an intervention effect on overall and/or race/ethnicity-specific teen birth rates in five communities. This study demonstrates the value of synthetic control methods in evaluating community-level outcomes of programmatic efforts. Findings indicate the CWIs had a positive impact on teen birth rates and have the potential to address racial and ethnic disparities in those rates.

A systematic review of whether Health Impact Assessment frameworks support best practice principles.

OBJECTIVES: Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is an evidence-based approach to assess the likely public health impacts of a policy or plan in any sector. Several HIA frameworks are available to guide practitioners doing a HIA. This systematic review sought to determine whether these support practitioners to meet best practice principles defined by the International Association for Impact Assessment. STUDY DESIGN: This was a systematic review. METHODS: Three complementary search strategies were used to identify frameworks in June 2022. We used three databases to find completed HIAs published in the last five years and hand-searched their reference lists for frameworks. We also searched 23 HIA repositories using Google's Advanced function and contacted HIA practitioners via two international mailing lists. We used a bespoke quality appraisal tool to assess frameworks against the principles. RESULTS: The search identified 24 HIA frameworks. None of the frameworks achieved a 'good' rating for all best practice principles. Many identified the principles but did not provide guidance on how to meet them at all HIA steps. The highest number of frameworks were rated 'good' for ethical use of evidence and comprehensive approach to health (n = 15). Eight frameworks were rated as 'good' for participation, and two for equity. The highest number of frameworks rated 'poor' for sustainability (n = 11). CONCLUSIONS: There is marked variation in the degree to which HIA frameworks support the best practice principles. HIA practitioners could select elements from different frameworks for practical guidance to meet all the best practice principles.

Better accounting for long-term health effects in economic assessments: an illustration for air pollution in the Canton of Geneva.

OBJECTIVES: We propose a general framework for estimating long-term health and economic effects that takes into account four time-related aspects. We apply it to a reduction in exposure to air pollution in the Canton of Geneva. STUDY DESIGN: Methodological developments on the evaluation of long-term economic and health benefits, with an empirical illustration. METHODS: We propose a unified framework-the comprehensive impact assessment (CIA)-to assess the long-term effects of morbidity and mortality in health and economic terms. This framework takes full account of four time-related issues: cessation lag, policy/technical implementation timeframe, discounting and time horizon. We compare its results with those obtained from standard quantitative health impact assessment (QHIA) in an empirical illustration involving air pollution reduction in the canton of Geneva. RESULTS: We find that by neglecting time issues, the QHIA estimates greater health and economic benefits than the CIA. The overestimation is about 50% under reasonable assumptions and increases ceteris paribus with the magnitude of the cessation lag and the discount factor. It decreases both with the time horizon and with the implementation timeframe. CONCLUSION: A proper evaluation of long-term health and economic effects is an important issue when they are to be used in cost-benefit analyses, particularly for mortality, which often represents the largest fraction. We recommend using the CIA to calculate more accurate values.

Quantifying the multiple environmental, health, and economic co-benefits from the adoption of carbon capture technology in the power sector in southern Iraq, using a recurrent neural network-based health assessment approach.

This study introduces a novel integrated quantitative modeling framework to assess the multiple environmental, health, and economic benefits from implementing carbon capture technology in the power sector of Basra province, Iraq. This province is struggling with significant environmental challenges and air pollution caused by extensive oil extraction operations. First, the developed modeling framework quantifies the captured CO2 emissions and the equivalent avoided PM2.5 emissions resulting from the use of carbon capture units in existing power plants. This is achieved through a detailed simulation of the monoethanolamine (MEA) capture process using Aspen. Second, the impact of avoided PM2.5 exposure on public health is evaluated by developing and applying a dynamic dispersion model across the districts where the power plants are located. Third, it quantifies the expected health benefits, using the health impact assessment method. This method is based on a comprehensive meta-analysis of concentration-response functions, and it utilizes a Recurrent Neural Network prediction framework based on the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) method to predict the relative risk value of six health outcomes. Finally, the economic value of avoided health burdens is estimated by employing the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) and the Cost of Illness (COI) approaches. According to the findings, implementing new carbon capture units in the selected power plants in the area will lead to a reduction of 7.697 million tons of carbon dioxide per year in the total emission of pollutants from the current power generation units in the region. The integrated assessment results demonstrate a significant reduction in PM2.5 emissions, amounting to 2299 tons per year, leading to the avoidance of 1328 premature deaths and 217 hospital admissions, resulting in annual savings of $1846 million from the avoided mortalities and morbidities cases and creation of 29,607 green jobs in Basra Province.

Multi-disciplinary diabetic limb salvage programme in octogenarians with diabetic foot ulcers is not futile: An observational study with historical controls.

This study evaluated the effectiveness of a multi-disciplinary diabetic limb salvage programme in improving clinical outcomes and optimising healthcare utilisation in 406 patients aged ≥80 years with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs), compared to 2392 younger patients enrolled from June 2020 to June 2021 and against 1716 historical controls using one-to-one propensity score matching. Results showed that elderly programme patients had lower odds of amputation-free survival (odds ratio: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.88) and shorter cumulative length of stay (LOS) compared to younger programme patients (incidence rate ratio: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.29, 0.69). Compared to the matched controls, participating in the programme was associated with 5% higher probability of minor lower extremity amputation, reduced inpatient admissions and emergency visits, shorter LOS but increased specialist and primary care visits (all p-values <0.05). The findings suggest that the programme yielded favourable impacts on the clinical outcomes of patients aged≥80 years with DFUs. Further research is needed to develop specific interventions tailoring to the needs of the elderly population and to determine their effectiveness on patient outcomes while accounting for potential confounding factors.

[On the June 25, 2024 Judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union regarding Ilva Taranto (Southern Italy)]. / Sulla sentenza della Corte di Giustizia dell'Unione europea del 25 giugno 2024 in merito all'Ilva di Taranto.

The June 25, 2024 Judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union is based on the Industrial Emissions (Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control) Directive 2010/75/EU and confirms its applicability to the Taranto steel plant, reiterating that the concept of pollution includes damage to the environment and human health; the health impact assessment of polluting industrial activities, such as the Ilva steelworks in Southern Italy, must constitute an internal act in the procedures for granting and reviewing the operating permission; all pollutants attributable to the plant that are scientifically recognized as harmful to health must be considered in the assessment procedures. In the case of serious and significant danger to the integrity of the environment and human health, the operation of the installation must be suspended. The Judgment highlights important elements on the level of principle and application, which are extraordinarily useful for environment and health personnel, for open-minded and aware local, regional, and national administrators, and above all for the citizens and communities most exposed to pollutants recognized as harmful to health. Preventive environmental health impact assessments gain renewed strength as tools for evaluative and authorized decision-making on production activities, in a sense of full integration between environment and health. The right to environmental and health protection and prevention is an integral part of the defence of human rights, especially in sacrifice zones such as Taranto and many other sites to be reclaimed, considered by the UN as "places where residents suffer devastating physical and mental health consequences and human rights violations".

Health Equity Impact Assessment (HEIA) reporting tool: developing a checklist for policymakers.

INTRODUCTION: Health Equity Impact Assessment (HEIA) is a decision support tool that shows users how a new program, policy, or innovation affects health equity in different population groups. Various HEIA reporting and dissemination tools are available, nevertheless, a practical standard tool to present the results of HEIA in an appropriate period to policymakers is lacking. This work reports the development of a tool (a checklist) for HEIA reporting at the decision-making level, aiming to promote the application of HEIA evidence for improving health equity. METHODS: This is a mixed-method study that was carried out over four stages in 2022-2023: 1) identifying HEIA models, checklists, and reporting instruments; 2) development of the initial HEIA reporting checklist; 3) checklist validation; and 4) piloting the checklist. We also analyzed the Face, CVR, and CVI validity of the tool. RESULTS: We developed the initial checklist through analysis of 53 included studies and the opinions of experts. The final checklist comprised five sections: policy introduction (eight subsections), managing the HEIA of policy (seven subsections), scope of the affected population (three subsections), HEIA results (seven subsections), and recommendations (three subsections). CONCLUSION: Needs assessment, monitoring during implementation, health impact assessment, and other tools such as monitoring outcome reports, appraisals, and checklists are all methods for assessing health equity impact. Other equity-focused indicators, such as the equity lens and equity appraisal, may have slightly different goals than the HEIA. Similarly, the formats for presenting and publishing HEIA reports might vary, depending on the target population and the importance of the report.

Perceived family impact and coping mechanisms of caregivers of children with nephrotic syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric chronic disease impacts the affected child and their family structure. There is limited literature investigating the psychosocial impact of nephrotic syndrome on families. METHODS: Caregivers of children with nephrotic syndrome completed two validated surveys: (1) Impact on Family (IOF) that evaluates the family impact (degree to which family is affected by a pediatric chronic illness) and (2) Coping Health Inventory for Parents (CHIP) that examines the coping patterns used by caregivers. Linear regression models were utilized to determine predictors of perceived family impact and coping patterns. RESULTS: Seventy-five caregivers of a child with nephrotic syndrome completed the surveys. On a scale from low impact to significant impact to very serious impact, results indicated that nephrotic syndrome had a significant impact on families (mean revised IOF total score 33.04 ± 9.38). Families in the steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome (SRNS) group reported a higher financial impact compared to the steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome (SSNS) group (p = 0.03). Families in the frequently relapsing group (FRNS) reported a higher impact on the caregiver's ability to cope with the child's condition compared to the SRNS group (p = 0.02). Tacrolimus use was associated with increasing the perceived family impact (ß = 4.76, p = 0.046). CHIP scores indicated that caregivers did not cope well with family integration (component I) but coped well with social support (component II) and communication (component III). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood nephrotic syndrome has a significant overall perceived impact on the family, and caregivers did not cope well regarding strengthening their family life. These findings can be used as outcome measures for future intervention studies to find solutions that would decrease the perceived family burden. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Environmental health impacts and inequalities in green space and air pollution in six medium-sized European cities.

BACKGROUND: The GoGreenRoutes project aims to introduce co-created nature-based solutions (NBS) to enhance environmental quality in six medium-sized cities (Burgas, Lahti, Limerick, Tallinn, Umeå, and Versailles). We estimated the mortality and economic impacts attributed to suboptimal exposure to green space and air pollution, economic impacts, and the distribution thereof the adult population by socioeconomic status. METHODS: We retrieved data from publicly accessible databases on green space (NDVI and % Green Area), air pollution (NO2 and PM2.5) and population (≥20 years, n = 804,975) at a 250m × 250m grid-cell level, and mortality for each city for 2015. We compared baseline exposures at the grid-cell to World Health Organization's recommendations and guidelines. We applied a comparative risk assessment to estimate the mortality burden attributable to not achieving the recommendations and guidelines. We estimated attributable mortality distributions and the association with income levels. RESULTS: We found high variability in air pollution and green spaces levels. Around 60% of the population lacked green space and 90% were exposed to harmful air pollution. Overall, we estimated age-standardized mortality rates varying from 10 (Umeå) to 92 (Burgas) deaths per 100,000 persons attributable to low NDVI levels; 3 (Lahti) to 38 (Burgas) per 100,000 persons to lack of % Green Area; 1 (Umeå) to 88 (Tallinn) per 100,000 persons to exceedances of NO2 guidelines; and 1 (Umeå) to 206 (Burgas) per 100,000 persons to exceedances of PM2.5 guidelines. Lower income associated with higher or lower mortality impacts depending on whether deprived populations lived in the densely constructed, highly-trafficked city centre or greener, less polluted outskirts. CONCLUSIONS: We attributed a considerable mortality burden to lack of green spaces and higher air pollution, which was unevenly distributed across different social groups. NBS and health-promoting initiatives should consider socioeconomic aspects to regenerate urban areas while providing equally good environments.

Health impact assessments of shipping and port-sourced air pollution on a global scale: A scoping literature review.

BACKGROUND: Globalisation has led to international trade expand rapidly. Seaborne transport moves 80% of traded goods across the globe, producing around 3% of greenhouse gases and other hazardous pollutants, such as PM, NOx and SOx, known to be harmful to health. METHODS: A scoping literature review was conducted reviewing peer-reviewed studies on health impact assessments (HIA) of global shipping and port-sourced air pollution. For review inclusion, studies had to (1) use a HIA methodology; (2) quantify the air pollution concentration attributable to at least one shipping or port activity scenario; (3) assess at least one health outcome (i.e. epidemiological measure or monetization); (4) quantify the attributable health burden of the respective scenario. RESULTS: Thirty-two studies were included, studying predominantly European Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions with health impacts for global or respective European populations. Also, Global, Asian, North American and Australian Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions were studied, with attributable health impacts for global or respective populations. The health outcome predominantly studied was mortality (all-cause, cause-specific, loss in life expectancy, years of life lost (YLLs)), but also morbidity (disease cases, hospital admissions, years lived with disability (YLDs)), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), restricted activity days and work loss days. The highest air pollution concentrations were identified along major shipping routes and ports, and the strongest health impacts occurred among respective riparian populations. Globally, ∼265,000 premature deaths were projected for 2020 (∼0.5% of global mortality) attributable to global shipping-sourced emissions. Emission control scenarios studied were predominantly sulphur fuel content caps and NOx emission reduction scenarios, consisting of technological interventions, cleaner fuels or fuel switches, and were assessed as effective in reducing shipping-sourced emissions, and hence, health burdens. CONCLUSIONS: Our review positions maritime transport an important source of air pollution and health risk factor, which needs more research and policy attention and rigorous emission control efforts, as shipping-sourced emissions are projected to increase with increases in global trade and shipping volumes.

Estimating ambient air pollution mortality and disease burden and its economic cost in Barcelona.

BACKGROUND: The new WHO air quality guidelines indicate that the air pollution disease burden is greater than previously reported. We aimed to estimate the air pollution disease burden and its economic cost in Barcelona to inform local action. METHODS: We used a quantitative health impact assessment to estimate the non-accidental mortality and incidence of childhood asthma and lung cancer attributable to long-term air pollution exposure in the city of Barcelona (Spain) in 2018-2019. We used the population weighted mean of PM2.5 and NO2 assigned at the geocoded address during the study period and the 2021 WHO air quality guidelines as counterfactual scenario to estimate new annual cases attributable to each pollutant separately and combined. We estimated the social cost of attributable deaths and the health care cost of childhood asthma and lung cancer attributable cases. We also estimated attributable mortality by city district and the mortality avoidable by achieving the WHO air quality interim targets. RESULTS: Mean exposure was 17 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 39 µg/m3 for NO2. Total combined air pollution attributable mortality was 13% (95%CI = 9%-17%), corresponding to 1,886 deaths (95%CI = 1,296-2,571) and a social cost of €1,292 million (95%CI = 888-1,762) annually. Fifty-one percent (95%CI = 21%-71%) and 17% (95%CI = 7%-29%) of new cases of childhood asthma and lung cancer were attributable to air pollution with a health care cost of €4.3 and €2.7 million, respectively. Achieving the first unmet WHO air quality interim targets for PM2.5 and for NO2 would avoid 410 deaths and €281 million annually. CONCLUSION: Air pollution in Barcelona represents a huge disease and economic burden, which is greater than previous estimates. Much stronger measures to reduce PM2.5 and NO2 levels are urgently needed. Until the WHO air quality guidelines are met in the city, achieving each WHO air quality interim targets would avoid hundreds of deaths each year.

Machine learning model to predict vehicle electrification impacts on urban air quality and related human health effects.

Air pollution is a prevailing environmental problem in cities worldwide. The future vehicle electrification (VE), which in Europe will be importantly fostered by the ban of thermal engines from 2035, is expected to have an important effect on urban air quality. Machine learning models represent an optimal tool for predicting changes in air pollutants concentrations in the context of future VE. For the city of Valencia (Spain), a XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting package) model was used in combination with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis, both to investigate the importance of different factors explaining air pollution concentrations and predicting the effect of different levels of VE. The model was trained with 5 years of data including the COVID-19 lockdown period in 2020, in which mobility was strongly reduced resulting in unprecedent changes in air pollution concentrations. The interannual meteorological variability of 10 years was also considered in the analyses. For a 70% VE, the model predicted: 1) improvements in nitrogen dioxide pollution (-34% to -55% change in annual mean concentrations, for the different air quality stations), 2) a very limited effect on particulate matter concentrations (-1 to -4% change in annual means of PM2.5 and PM10), 3) heterogeneous responses in ground-level ozone concentrations (-2% to +12% change in the annual means of the daily maximum 8-h average concentrations). Even at a high VE increase of 70%, the 2021 World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines will be exceeded for all pollutants in some stations. VE has a potentially important impact in terms of reducing NO2-associated premature mortality, but complementary strategies for reducing traffic and controlling all different air pollution sources should also be implemented to protect human health.