Colorectal Cancer Survival Trends in the United States From 1992 to 2018 Differ Among Persons From Five Racial and Ethnic Groups According to Stage at Diagnosis: A SEER-Based Study.

INTRODUCTION: Survival following colorectal cancer (CRC) has improved in the US since 1975, but there is limited information on stage-specific survival trends among racial and ethnic subgroups. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to estimate and compare trends in 1- and 5-year CRC cause-specific survival in the United States by both stage and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of individuals diagnosed with CRC using the 1992-2018 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We estimated and compared time trends in 1- and 5-year survival for CRC stage by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Data from 399 220 individuals diagnosed with CRC were available. There were significant differences in stage-specific 1-year survival trends by race and ethnicity. Differences were most notable for distant stage CRC: survival probabilities increased most consistently for non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native (AIAN) and Black (NHB) persons, but their trend lines were lower than those of Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander (API) and White (NHW) persons, whose initially greater gains appear to be slowing. Although the data do not support significant racial/ethnic differences in 5-year CRC survival trends by stage, AIAN and NHB persons have the lowest average survival probabilities for multiple CRC stages, and no racial/ethnic group has 5-year survival probabilities above 20% for distant-stage CRC. CONCLUSION: Although there has been an overall improvement in adjusted CRC-specific survival probabilities since 1992, AIAN and NHB persons continue to experience worse prognosis than those of other races/ethnicities. This highlights the importance of reinvigorating efforts to understand the causes of mortality in CRC, including those which may differ according to an individual's race or ethnicity.

Comparison of Relative Survival and Cause-Specific Survival in Men With Prostate Cancer According to Age and Risk Category: A Nationwide, Population-Based Study.

Net survival, estimated in a relative survival (RS) or cause-specific survival (CSS) framework, is a key measure of the effectiveness of cancer management. We compared RS and CSS in men with prostate cancer (PCa) according to age and risk category, using Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden, including 168,793 men younger than age 90 years, diagnosed 1998-2016 with PCa. RS and CSS were compared according to age and risk category based on TNM (tumor, nodes, and metastases) stage, Gleason score, and prostate-specific antigen level. Each framework requires assumptions that are unlikely to be appropriate for PCa. Ten-year RS was substantially higher than CSS in men aged 80-89 with low-risk PCa: 125% (95% confidence interval: 113, 138) versus 85% (95% confidence interval: 82, 88). In contrast, RS and CSS were similar for men under age 70 and for all men with regional or distant metastases. Both RS and CSS produce biased estimates of net survival for men with low- and intermediate-risk PCa, in particular for men over 80. Due to biases, net survival is overestimated in analysis of RS but underestimated in analysis of CSS. These results highlight the importance of evaluating the underlying assumptions for each method, because the "true" net survival is expected to lie between the limits of RS and CSS.

Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram for Tonsil Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study Based on the SEER Database.

This study aimed to establish and validate a comprehensive nomogram for predicting the cause-specific survival (CSS) probability in tonsillar squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC). We screened and extracted data from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database for the period 2004 to 2016. We randomly divided the 7243 identified patients into a training cohort (70%) for constructing the model and a validation cohort (30%) for evaluating the model using R software. Multivariate Cox stepwise regression was used to select predictive variables. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration plotting, and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model. The multivariate Cox stepwise regression analysis successfully established a nomogram for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS probabilities for TSCC patients. The C-index, AUC, NRI, and IDI were all showed that the model has good discrimination. The calibration plots were very close to the standard lines, indicating that the model has a good degree of calibration, and the DCA curve further illustrated that the model has good clinical validity. We have established the first nomogram for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS probabilities for TSCC based on a large retrospective sample. Our rigorous validation and evaluation indicated that the model can provide useful guidance to clinical workers making clinical decisions about individual patients.

Increasing age-related survival gap among patients with colorectal cancer: a population-based retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Survival for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) has improved over the past decades. However, it is unclear whether older patients have benefited to the same extent as younger patients. METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 9 registries database was queried for CRC patients from 1975 to 2009. We presented yearly data for survival with overlying loess-smoothing lines across all age groups. Another cohort was created using the SEER 18 registries database for patients diagnosed with CRC from 1973 to 2014. Yearly data for surgery-performed rate, stage proportion, and multivariate hazard ratio were performed with overlying smoothing lines across all age groups. RESULTS: In the analysis SEER 9, 5-year cause-specific survival (CSS) of patients aged ≤ 54, 55-64, and 65-74 years showed robust increase since 1975; however, the survival of patients aged 75-84 years remained low despite modest improvement, and patients aged 85 or older even showed no survival gains since 1990. In the analysis of SEER 18, there has been a steady increase in the survival of patients aged ≤ 54, 55-64, 65-74, and 75-84 years as time period advanced; however, of CRC patients aged ≥ 85 years, the survival curves of period 1990-1999 and 2000-2012 could not be distinguished from each other presented with negligibly a small gap from the curve of 1980-1989. CONCLUSIONS: The strong interaction between age and year of diagnosis implies that older patients have benefited less over time than younger patients, especially for patients aged ≥ 85 years.

Prognostic nomograms for predicting cause-specific survival and overall survival of stage I-III colon cancer patients: a large population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to build functional nomograms based on significant clinicopathological features to predict cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with stage I-III colon cancer. METHODS: Data on patients diagnosed with stage I-III colon cancer between 2010 and 2015 were downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors, which were used to construct nomograms to predict the probabilities of CSS and OS. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by C-indexes, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to compare clinical usage between the nomogram and the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system. RESULTS: Based on the univariate and multivariate analyses, features that correlated with survival outcomes were used to establish nomograms for CSS and OS prediction. The nomograms showed favorable sensitivity at predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS and OS, with a C-index of 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-0.80) for CSS and 0.74 (95% CI 0.73-0.75) for OS. Calibration curves and ROC curves revealed excellent predictive accuracy. The clinically and statistically significant prognostic performance of the nomogram generated with the entire group of patients and risk scores was validated by a stratified analysis. DCA showed that the nomograms were more clinically useful than TNM stage. CONCLUSION: Novel nomograms based on significant clinicopathological characteristics were developed and can be used as a tool for clinicians to predict CSS and OS in stage I-III colon cancer patients. These models could help facilitate a personalized postoperative evaluation.

Long-term results achieved by guideline-based stage-dependent management of anal cancer in a non-HIV population.

PURPOSE: Therapy of anal cancer follows national and international guidelines that are mainly derived from randomized trials. This study aimed to analyze long-term results of stage-dependent treatment of anal cancer in a non-selected patient cohort. PATIENTS AND METHOD: All consecutive patients treated for anal cancer between 2000 and 2015 were retrieved from a prospective database. Risk-dependent screening for human immunodeficiency virus showed no infection. Main outcome measure was overall survival with respect to tumor site and treatment. Secondary endpoints were cause-specific survival, stoma free survival, and the rate of salvage operations. RESULTS: In total, 106 patients were treated for anal cancer. Of those, 69 (65.1%) suffered from anal canal cancer and 37 (34.9%) from anal margin cancer. Three patients with synchronous distant metastases were excluded from analysis. The majority of patients (n = 79, 76.7%) were treated by chemoradiotherapy in curative intention. Twenty-two patients underwent local surgery. Five-year overall survival was 73.1% and cause-specific survival at 5 years was 87.4%. Overall, 14 patients (13.6%) needed salvage surgery. Their 5-year cause-specific survival was 57.7%. A permanent ostomy was avoided in 77.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of anal cancer results in low rates of salvage surgery and permanent ostomies, when therapy was determined by a multidisciplinary team following national and international guidelines.

Cancer survival among Alaska Native people.

BACKGROUND: Recent cancer survival trends among American Indian and Alaska Native (AN) people are not well understood; survival has not been reported among AN people since 2001. METHODS: This study examined cause-specific survival among AN cancer patients for lung, colorectal, female breast, prostate, and kidney cancers. It evaluated whether survival differed between cancers diagnosed in 1992-2002 (the earlier period) and cancers diagnosed in 2003-2013 (the later period) and by the age at diagnosis (<65 vs ≥65 years), stage at diagnosis (local or regional/distant/unknown), and sex. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate univariate and multivariate-adjusted cause-specific survival for each cancer. RESULTS: An improvement was observed in 5-year survival over time from lung cancer (hazard ratio [HR] for the later period vs the earlier period, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.97), and a marginally nonsignificant improvement was observed for colorectal cancer (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-1.01). Site-specific differences in survival were observed by age and stage at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents the first data on cancer survival among AN people in almost 2 decades. During this time, AN people have experienced improvements in survival from lung and colorectal cancers. The reasons for these improvements may include increased access to care (including screening) as well as improvements in treatment. Improving cancer survival should be a priority for reducing the burden of cancer among AN people and eliminating cancer disparities. Cancer 2018;124:2570-7. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

The association between diabetes, comorbidities, body mass index and all-cause and cause-specific mortality among women with endometrial cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Although endometrial cancer (EC) is associated with relatively good survival rates overall, women diagnosed with high-risk subtypes have poor outcomes. We examined the relationship between lifestyle factors and subsequent all-cause, cancer-specific and non-cancer related survival. METHODS: In a cohort of 1359 Australian women diagnosed with incident EC between 2005 and 2007 pre-diagnostic information was collected by interview at recruitment. Clinical and survival information was abstracted from women's medical records, supplemented by linkage to the Australian National Death Index. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific survival (EC death vs. non-EC death) associated with each exposure, overall and by risk group (low-grade endometrioid vs. high-grade endometrioid and non-endometrioid). RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 179 (13%) women had died, with 123 (69%) deaths from EC. As expected, elevated body mass index (BMI), diabetes and the presence of other co-morbidities were associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause and non-cancer related death. Women with diabetes had higher cancer-specific mortality rates (HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.31-3.35), particularly those who had were not obese (HR 4.13, 95% CI 2.20-7.76). The presence of ≥2 other co-morbidities (excluding diabetes) was also associated with increased risk of cancer-specific mortality (HR 3.09, 95% CI 1.21-7.89). The patterns were generally similar for women with low-grade and high-grade endometrioid/non-endometrioid EC. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate the importance of diabetes, other co-morbidities and obesity as negative predictors of mortality among women with EC but that the risks differ for cancer-specific and non-cancer related mortality.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in prey abundance and vulnerability shapes the foraging tactics of an omnivore.

Prey abundance and prey vulnerability vary across space and time, but we know little about how they mediate predator-prey interactions and predator foraging tactics. To evaluate the interplay between prey abundance, prey vulnerability and predator space use, we examined patterns of black bear (Ursus americanus) predation of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) neonates in Newfoundland, Canada using data from 317 collared individuals (9 bears, 34 adult female caribou, 274 caribou calves). During the caribou calving season, we predicted that landscape features would influence calf vulnerability to bear predation, and that bears would actively hunt calves by selecting areas associated with increased calf vulnerability. Further, we hypothesized that bears would dynamically adjust their foraging tactics in response to spatiotemporal changes in calf abundance and vulnerability (collectively, calf availability). Accordingly, we expected bears to actively hunt calves when they were most abundant and vulnerable, but switch to foraging on other resources as calf availability declined. As predicted, landscape heterogeneity influenced risk of mortality, and bears displayed the strongest selection for areas where they were most likely to kill calves, which suggested they were actively hunting caribou. Initially, the per-capita rate at which bears killed calves followed a type-I functional response, but as the calving season progressed and calf vulnerability declined, kill rates dissociated from calf abundance. In support of our hypothesis, bears adjusted their foraging tactics when they were less efficient at catching calves, highlighting the influence that predation phenology may have on predator space use. Contrary to our expectations, however, bears appeared to continue to hunt caribou as calf availability declined, but switched from a tactic of selecting areas of increased calf vulnerability to a tactic that maximized encounter rates with calves. Our results reveal that generalist predators can dynamically adjust their foraging tactics over short time-scales in response to changing prey abundance and vulnerability. Further, they demonstrate the utility of integrating temporal dynamics of prey availability into investigations of predator-prey interactions, and move towards a mechanistic understanding of the dynamic foraging tactics of a large omnivore.

The effect of marital status by age on patients with colorectal cancer over the past decades: a SEER-based analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Marital status has been found as an independent prognostic factor for survival in colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it is unclear whether patients with different marital status have benefited the same from the treatment improvement. METHODS: We queried the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 9 database for patients diagnosed with CRC from 1975 to 2009. Yearly survival data was presented with overlying loess smoothing lines, stratifying by marital status. We further referred to the SEER 18 database for patients diagnosed with CRC from 1973 to 2014. We also performed yearly data for stage proportion, surgery-performed rate, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and multivariate hazard ratio with overlying loess smoothing lines across all marital status. RESULTS: Five-year CSS of married, single, and separated/divorced patients showed remarkable increase since 1975; however, survival of widowed patients remained low and no survival gains were observed since 1990. The same trends persisted after stratifying patients by stage and gender. Married and widowed patients tended to have more localized disease and less distant disease compared with the other two groups, and married patients were more likely to receive surgery. Multivariate analysis revealed the hazard ratio of widowed patients dropped dramatically when including age at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Widowed patients have not benefited substantially from the remarkable treatment improvement over the past four decades, which may be the result of the older age of this particular group. This study is a wake-up call to the medical community for additional care for the widowed patients.

Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.

Triple-negative breast cancer has worse overall survival and cause-specific survival than non-triple-negative breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging manual uses tumor size, lymph node, and metastatic status to stage breast cancer across different subtypes. We examined the prognosis of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) versus non-TNBC within the same stages and sub-stages to evaluate whether TNBC had worse prognosis than non-TNBC. METHODS: We reviewed the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data and identified 158,358 patients diagnosed with breast cancer from 2010 to 2012. The overall survival (OS) time and breast cancer cause-specific survival time were compared between patients with TNBC and non-TNBC in each stage and sub-stages. The results were validated using a dataset of 2049 patients with longer follow-up from our institution. RESULTS: Compared with patients with non-TNBC, patients with TNBC had worse OS and breast cancer cause-specific survival time in every stage and sub-stage in univariate and multivariate analyses adjusting for age, race, tumor grade, and surgery and radiation treatments in the SEER data. The worse OS time in patients with TNBC was validated in our institutional dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with TNBC have worse survival than patients with non-TNBC. The new AJCC staging manual should consider breast cancer biomarker information.

Prognostic correlation of cell cycle progression score and Ki-67 as a predictor of aggressiveness, biochemical failure, and mortality in men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Ki-67 is a proliferation marker in prostate cancer. A prognostic RNA signature was developed to characterize prostate cancer aggressiveness. The aim was to evaluate prognostic correlation of CCP and Ki-67 with biochemical failure (BF), and survival in high-risk prostate cancer patients (pts) treated with radiation therapy (RT). METHODS: CCP score and Ki-67 were derived retrospectively from pre-treatment paraffin-embedded prostate cancer tissue of 33 men diagnosed from 2002 to 2006. CCP score was calculated as an average expression of 31 CCP genes. Ki-67 was determined by IHC. Single pathologist evaluated all tissues. Factors associated to failure and survival were analyzed. RESULTS: Median CCP score was 0.9 (-0-1 - 2.6). CCP 0: 1 pt; CCP 1: 19 pts; CCP 2: 13 pts. Median Ki-67 was 8.9. Ki-67 cutpoint was 15.08%. BF and DSM were observed in 21% and 9%. Ki-67 ≥ 15% predicted BF (p = 0.043). With a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 10-year BF, OS, DM and DSM for CCP 1 vs. CCP 2 was 76-71% (p = 0.83), 83-73% (p = 0.86), 89-85% (p = 0.84), and 94-78% (p = 0.66). On univariate, high Ki-67 was correlated with BF (p = 0.013), OS (p = 0.023), DM (p = 0.007), and DSM (p = 0.01). On Cox MVA, high Ki-67 had a BF trend (p = 0.063). High CCP score was not correlated with DSM. CONCLUSIONS: High Ki-67 significantly predicted outcome and provided prognostic information. CCP score may improve accuracy stratification. We did not provide prognostic correlation of CCP and DSM. It should be validated in a larger cohort of pts.

Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival.

Climate can have direct and indirect effects on population dynamics via changes in resource competition or predation risk, but this influence may be modulated by density- or phase-dependent processes. We hypothesized that for ungulates, climatic conditions close to parturition have a greater influence on the predation risk of neonates during population declines, when females are already under nutritional stress triggered by food limitation. We examined the presence of phase-dependent climate-predator (PDCP) interactions on neonatal ungulate survival by comparing spatial and temporal fluctuations in climatic conditions, cause-specific mortality and per capita resource limitation. We determined cause-specific fates of 1384 caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 10 herds in Newfoundland, spanning more than 30 years during periods of numerical increase and decline, while exposed to predation from black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans). We conducted Cox proportional hazards analysis for competing risks, fit as a function of weather metrics, to assess pre- and post-partum climatic influences on survival on herds in population increase and decline phases. We used cumulative incidence functions to compare temporal changes in risk from predators. Our results support our main hypothesis; when caribou populations increased, weather conditions preceding calving were the main determinants of cause-specific mortality, but when populations declined, weather conditions during calving also influenced predator-driven mortality. Cause-specific analysis showed that weather conditions can differentially affect predation risk between black bears and coyotes with specific variables increasing the risk from one species and decreasing the risk from the other. For caribou, nutritional stress appears to increase predation risk on neonates, an interaction which is exacerbated by susceptibility to climatic events. These findings support the PDCP interactions framework, where maternal body condition influences susceptibility to climate-related events and, subsequently, risk from predation.

Assessing treatment benefit with competing risks not affected by the randomized treatment.

The comparison of overall survival curves between treatment arms will always be of interest in a randomized clinical trial involving a life-shortening disease. In some settings, the experimental treatment is only expected to affect the deaths caused by the disease, and the proportion of deaths caused by the disease is relatively low. In these settings, the ability to assess treatment-effect differences between Kaplan-Meier survival curves can be hampered by the large proportion of deaths in both arms that are unrelated to the disease. To address this problem, frequently displayed are cause-specific survival curves or cumulative incidence curves, which respectively censor and immortalize events (deaths) not caused by the disease. However, the differences between the experimental and control treatment arms for these curves overestimate the difference between the overall survival curves for the treatment arms and thus could result in overestimation of the benefit of the experimental treatment for the patients. To address this issue, we propose new estimators of overall survival for the treatment arms that are appropriate when the treatment does not affect the non-disease-related deaths. These new estimators give a more precise estimate of the treatment benefit, potentially enabling future patients to make a more informed decision concerning treatment choice. We also consider the case where an exponential assumption allows the simple presentation of mortality rates as the outcome measures. Applications are given for estimating overall survival in a prostate-cancer treatment randomized clinical trial, and for estimating the overall mortality rates in a prostate-cancer screening trial.

A comparison of relative and cause-specific survival by cancer site, age and time since diagnosis.

Relative survival (RS) estimates are widely used by cancer registries, mainly because they do not rely on the well-documented deficiencies of cause of death information. The aim of our study was to compare 5-year cause-specific survival (CSS) estimates and 5-year RS estimates for different cancer sites by age and time since diagnosis, and discuss possible reasons for observed differences. Using data from the Cancer Registry of Norway, we identified 200,008 patients diagnosed with cancer at one of the 48 sites included in this analysis during the period 1996-2005, and followed them up until the end of 2010. CSS estimates were calculated (i) considering cause of death to be the cancer that was originally diagnosed and (ii) considering the cause of death to be a cancer within the same organ system. For most cancer sites the difference between CSS and RS estimates was small (<5%). The greatest differences were seen for rarer cancers such as mediastinum and Kaposi sarcoma. Including deaths from the same organ system in the calculation of CSS further reduced the differences for many sites. For younger age groups and shorter time since diagnosis, RS and CSS estimates tended to be similar, whereas CSS estimates tended to be lower than RS estimates with longer time since diagnosis in the oldest age groups. When compared to RS estimates CSS estimates were reliable for most of the cancer sites included in our analysis. There are, however, some exceptions where CSS estimates may not be recommended, including for rarer cancers and for patients aged 85 and above.

Long term clinical outcomes of cervical cancer patients who were recommended surgery but did not undergo it: A SEER database study.

BACKGROUND: This study analyzed the long-term clinical outcomes of cervical cancer patients recommended surgery but who did not undergo it using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The aim was to identify the subgroups with comparable overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) through stratified analysis. METHODS: Cases of cervical cancer were retrieved from SEER database using SEER*Stat software. This included patients in the non-surgery group (recommended surgery but did not undergo it), and a reference surgery group. Propensity score matching balanced differences between the non-surgery and surgery groups. Stratified analysis and log-rank tests were used to identify subgroups within the non-surgery group with comparable OS and CSS to the surgery group. RESULTS: A total of 30,807 cervical cancer patients were included in the OS and CSS analysis. In the matched cohort (n = 1278), patients in the non-surgery group had significantly lower 5-year CSS (63.2 % vs. 80.1 %, P < 0.001) and 5-year OS (59.0 % vs. 78.0 %, P < 0.001). However, within the matched cohort, there was no statistically significant difference in OS and CSS between the non-surgery and surgery groups in subgroups diagnosed during 2010-2014 (P = 0.064, P = 0.182), 2015-2020 (P = 0.122, P = 0.518), T2 stage (P = 0.139, P = 0.052), T3 stage (P = 0.502, P = 0.317), or with distant metastasis (M1) (P = 0.411, P = 0.520). CONCLUSION: Patients in the non-surgery group generally exhibited lower long-term clinical outcomes compared to those in the surgery group. However, with advancements in non-surgical treatment techniques, particularly notable in patients with T2, T3, and M1 stages, these differences are gradually diminishing.

Updated outcomes of surgical treatment for recurrent thymic tumour: a report from the Japanese nationwide database.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to analyse the surgical outcomes for recurrent thymic epithelial tumours and identify the factors associated with post-recurrence survival, using an updated Japanese nationwide database. METHODS: The cohort that developed recurrence after the initial resection was extracted from an updated database of patients whose thymic epithelial tumours were treated surgically between 1991 and 2010. Furthermore, we reviewed clinicopathological and prognostic factors of re-resected cases. Post-recurrence survival outcomes and cause-specific deaths in non-re-resected cases were also reviewed. RESULTS: We enrolled 191 patients who underwent re-resection and 259 patients who did not. In the surgery group, more patients with early stage disease, less aggressive World Health Organization (WHO) histological classification, initial complete resection and shorter recurrence-free intervals were included. Non-thymic carcinoma, absence of preoperative treatment, longer recurrent-free interval, single-site recurrence and R0-1 re-resection were all significantly favourable prognostic factors for post-recurrence survival in the surgery group, according to univariable analyses. Non-thymic carcinoma histology, longer recurrence-free interval and R0-1 re-resection were identified as independent prognostic factors according to multivariable analysis. The post-recurrence survival of the entire cohort with R2 re-resection was significantly better than that of the non-surgery group, although it was not demonstrated that patients with thymoma who underwent R2 re-resection had significantly better post-recurrence and lower cause-specific death. CONCLUSIONS: R0-1 re-resection was newly identified as a prognostic factor after re-resection, in addition to non-thymic carcinoma histological classification and longer recurrence-free intervals, as documented in the initial report.

An Accelerated Failure Time Model to Predict Cause-Specific Survival and Prognostic Factors of Lung and Bronchus Cancer Patients with at Least Bone or Brain Metastases: Development and Internal Validation Using a SEER-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: This study addresses the significant challenge of low survival rates in patients with cause-specific lung cancer accompanied by bone or brain metastases. Recognizing the critical need for an effective predictive model, the research aims to establish survival prediction models using both parametric and non-parametric approaches. METHODS: Clinical data from lung cancer patients with at least one bone or brain metastasis between 2000 and 2020 from the SEER database were utilized. Four models were constructed: Cox proportional hazard, Weibull accelerated failure time (AFT), log-normal AFT, and Zografos-Balakrishnan log-normal (ZBLN). Independent prognostic factors for cause-specific survival were identified, and model fit was evaluated using Akaike's and Bayesian information criteria. Internal validation assessed predictive accuracy and discriminability through the Harriel Concordance Index (C-index) and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 20,412 patients were included, with 14,290 (70%) as the training cohort and 6122 (30%) validation. Independent prognostic factors selected for the study were age, race, sex, primary tumor site, disease grade, total malignant tumor in situ, metastases, treatment modality, and histology. Among the accelerated failure time (AFT) models considered, the ZBLN distribution exhibited the most robust model fit for the 3- and 5-year survival, as evidenced by the lowest values of Akaike's information criterion of 6322 and 79,396, and the Bayesian information criterion of 63,495 and 79,396, respectively. This outperformed other AFT and Cox models (AIC = [156,891, 211,125]; BIC = [158,848, 211,287]). Regarding predictive accuracy, the ZBLN AFT model achieved the highest concordance C-index (0.682, 0.667), a better performance than the Cox model (0.669, 0.643). The calibration curves of the ZBLN AFT model demonstrated a high degree of concordance between actual and predicted values. All variables considered in this study demonstrated significance at the 0.05 level for the ZBLN AFT model. However, differences emerged in the significant variations in survival times between subgroups. The study revealed that patients with only bone metastases have a higher chance of survival compared to only brain and those with bone and brain metastases. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the underutilized but accurate nature of the accelerated failure time model in predicting lung cancer survival and identifying prognostic factors. These findings have implications for individualized clinical decisions, indicating the potential for screening and professional care of lung cancer patients with at least one bone or brain metastasis in the future.

Survival trends for left and right sided colon cancer using population-based SEER database: A forty-five-year analysis from 1975 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Survival differences between left-sided colon cancer (LSCC) and right-sided colon cancer (RSCC) has been previously reported with mixed results, with various study periods not accounting for other causes of mortality. PURPOSE: We sought to assess the trends in colon cancer cause- specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) based on sidedness. METHOD: Fine-Gray competing risk and Cox models were used to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cohort from 1975 to 2019. Various interval periods were identified based on the timeline of clinical adoption of modern chemotherapy (1975-1989, interval period A; 1990-2004, B; and 2005-2019, C). RESULTS: Of the 227,637 patients, 50.1% were female and 46.2% were RSCC. RSCC was more common for African Americans (51.5%), older patients (age ≥65; 51.4%), females (50.4%), while LSCC was more common among Whites (53.1%; p < 0.001), younger patients (age 18-49, 64.6%; 50-64, 62.3%; p < 0.001), males (58.1%; p < 0.001). The Median CSS for LSCC and RCC were 19.3 and 16.7 years respectively for interval period A (1975-1989). Median CSS for interval periods B and C were not reached (more than half of the cohort was still living at the end of the follow-up period). Adjusted CSS was superior for LSCC versus RSCC for the most recent interval period C (HR 0.89; 0.86-0.92; p < 0.001). LSCC consistently showed superior OS for all study periods. Stage stratification showed worse CSS for localized and regional LSCC in the earlier study periods, but the risk attenuated over time. However, left sided distant disease had superior CSS per stage for all interval periods. OS was better for LSCC irrespective of stage, with gradual improvement over time. CONCLUSION: LSCC was associated with superior survival compared to right sided tumors. With the adoption of modern chemotherapy regimens, prognosis between LSCC and RSCC became more divergent in favor of LSCC. Colon cancer clinical trials should strongly consider tumor sidedness as an enrollment factor.