Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Quantification of asymptomatic infections is fundamental for effective public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Discrepancies regarding the extent of asymptomaticity have arisen from inconsistent terminology as well as conflation of index and secondary cases which biases toward lower asymptomaticity. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and World Health Organization Global Research Database on COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and April 2, 2021 to identify studies that reported silent infections at the time of testing, whether presymptomatic or asymptomatic. Index cases were removed to minimize representational bias that would result in overestimation of symptomaticity. By analyzing over 350 studies, we estimate that the percentage of infections that never developed clinical symptoms, and thus were truly asymptomatic, was 35.1% (95% CI: 30.7 to 39.9%). At the time of testing, 42.8% (95% prediction interval: 5.2 to 91.1%) of cases exhibited no symptoms, a group comprising both asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. Asymptomaticity was significantly lower among the elderly, at 19.7% (95% CI: 12.7 to 29.4%) compared with children at 46.7% (95% CI: 32.0 to 62.0%). We also found that cases with comorbidities had significantly lower asymptomaticity compared to cases with no underlying medical conditions. Without proactive policies to detect asymptomatic infections, such as rapid contact tracing, prolonged efforts for pandemic control may be needed even in the presence of vaccination.

Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

By March 2020, COVID-19 led to thousands of deaths and disrupted economic activity worldwide. As a result of narrow case definitions and limited capacity for testing, the number of unobserved severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections during its initial invasion of the United States remains unknown. We developed an approach for estimating the number of unobserved infections based on data that are commonly available shortly after the emergence of a new infectious disease. The logic of our approach is, in essence, that there are bounds on the amount of exponential growth of new infections that can occur during the first few weeks after imported cases start appearing. Applying that logic to data on imported cases and local deaths in the United States through 12 March, we estimated that 108,689 (95% posterior predictive interval [95% PPI]: 1,023 to 14,182,310) infections occurred in the United States by this date. By comparing the model's predictions of symptomatic infections with local cases reported over time, we obtained daily estimates of the proportion of symptomatic infections detected by surveillance. This revealed that detection of symptomatic infections decreased throughout February as exponential growth of infections outpaced increases in testing. Between 24 February and 12 March, we estimated an increase in detection of symptomatic infections, which was strongly correlated (median: 0.98; 95% PPI: 0.66 to 0.98) with increases in testing. These results suggest that testing was a major limiting factor in assessing the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during its initial invasion of the United States.

Epidemiology of the silent polio outbreak in Rahat, Israel, based on modeling of environmental surveillance data.

Israel experienced an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in 2013-2014, detected through environmental surveillance of the sewage system. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were reported, and the epidemic subsided after a bivalent oral polio vaccination (bOPV) campaign. As we approach global eradication, polio will increasingly be detected only through environmental surveillance. We developed a framework to convert quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) cycle threshold data into scaled WPV1 and OPV1 concentrations for inference within a deterministic, compartmental infectious disease transmission model. We used this approach to estimate the epidemic curve and transmission dynamics, as well as assess alternate vaccination scenarios. Our analysis estimates the outbreak peaked in late June, much earlier than previous estimates derived from analysis of stool samples, although the exact epidemic trajectory remains uncertain. We estimate the basic reproduction number was 1.62 (95% CI 1.04-2.02). Model estimates indicate that 59% (95% CI 9-77%) of susceptible individuals (primarily children under 10 years old) were infected with WPV1 over a little more than six months, mostly before the vaccination campaign onset, and that the vaccination campaign averted 10% (95% CI 1-24%) of WPV1 infections. As we approach global polio eradication, environmental monitoring with qPCR can be used as a highly sensitive method to enhance disease surveillance. Our analytic approach brings public health relevance to environmental data that, if systematically collected, can guide eradication efforts.

Whole-genome sequencing analysis of molecular epidemiology and silent transmissions causing meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections in a university hospital.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of novel genomic-type clones, such as community-associated meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and livestock-associated MRSA, and their invasion into hospitals have become major concerns worldwide; however, little information is available regarding the prevalence of MRSA in Japan. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has been conducted to analyse various pathogens worldwide. Therefore, it is important to establish a genome database of clinical MRSA isolates available in Japan. AIM: A molecular epidemiological analysis of MRSA strains isolated from bloodstream-infected patients in a Japanese university hospital was conducted using WGS and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis. Additionally, through a review of patients' clinical characteristics, the effectiveness of SNP analysis as a tool for detecting silent nosocomial transmission that may be missed by other methods was evaluated in diverse settings and various time points of detection. METHODS: Polymerase-chain-reaction-based staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing was performed using 135 isolates obtained between 2014 and 2018, and WGS was performed using 88 isolates obtained between 2015 and 2017. FINDINGS: SCCmec type II strains, prevalent in 2014, became rare in 2018, whereas the prevalence of SCCmec type IV strains increased from 18.75% to 83.87% of the population, and became the dominant clones. Clonal complex (CC) 5 CC8 and CC1 were detected between 2015 and 2017, with CC1 being dominant. In 88 cases, SNP analyses revealed nosocomial transmissions among 20 patients which involved highly homologous strains. CONCLUSIONS: Routine monitoring of MRSA by whole-genome analysis is effective not only for gaining knowledge regarding molecular epidemiology, but also for detecting silent nosocomial transmission.

Using Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and High Isolation of Asymptomatic Carriers to Contain the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes.

More than 40% of the deaths recorded in the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were linked to nursing homes. Not only are the residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) typically older and more susceptible to endemic infections, the facilities' high degree of connection to wider communities makes them especially vulnerable to local COVID-19 outbreaks. In 2008, in the wake of the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS epidemics and anticipating an influenza pandemic, we created a stochastic compartmental model to evaluate the deployment of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in LTCFs during influenza epidemics. In that model, the most effective NPI by far was a staff schedule consisting of 5-day duty periods with onsite residence, followed by an 4-to-5 day off-duty period with a 3-day quarantine period just prior to the return to work. Unlike influenza, COVID-19 appears to have significant rates of pre-symptomatic transmission. In this study, we modified our prior modeling framework to include new parameters and a set of NPIs to identify and control the degree of pre-symptomatic transmission. We found that infections, deaths, hospitalizations, and ICU utilization were projected to be high and largely irreducible, even with rigorous application of all defined NPIs, unless pre-symptomatic carriers can be identified and isolated at high rates. We found that increasingly rigorous application of NPIs is likely to significantly decrease the peak of infections; but even with complete isolation of symptomatic persons, and a 50% reduction in silent transmission, the attack rate is projected to be nearly 95%.

Structural Mapping of Mutations in Spike, RdRp and Orf3a Genes of SARS-CoV-2 in Influenza Like Illness (ILI) Patients.

In December 2019, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in China led to a pandemic. Since both Influenza Like Illness (ILI) and COVID-19 case definitions overlap, we re-investigated the ILI cases using PCR for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in 739 nasopharyngeal swabs collected from November 2019 to March 2020. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in 37 samples (5%) collected mostly during February 2020. It was followed by confirmation of evolutionary and spatial relationships using next generation sequencing (NGS). We observed that the overall incidence of ILI cases during 2019-2020 influenza season was considerably higher than previous years and was gradually replaced with SARS-CoV-2, which indicated a silent transmission among ambulatory patients. Sequencing of representative isolates confirmed independent introductions and silent transmission earlier than previously thought. Evolutionary and spatial analyses revealed clustering in the GH clade, characterized by three amino acid substitutions in spike gene (D614G), RdRp (P323L) and NS3 (Q57H). P323L causes conformational change near nsp8 binding site that might affect virus replication and transcription. In conclusion, assessment of the community transmission among patients with mild COVID-19 illness, particularly those without epidemiological link for acquiring the virus, is of utmost importance to guide policy makers to optimize public health interventions. The detection of SARS-CoV-2 in ILI cases shows the importance of ILI surveillance systems and warrants its further strengthening to mitigate the ongoing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The effect of NS3 substitutions on oligomerization or membrane channel function (intra- and extracellular) needs functional validation.

Brain function distinguishes female carriers and non-carriers of familial risk for autism.

BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by high population-level heritability and a three-to-one male-to-female ratio that occurs independent of sex linkage. Prior research in a mixed-sex pediatric sample identified neural signatures of familial risk elicited by passive viewing of point light motion displays, suggesting the possibility that both resilience and risk of autism might be associated with brain responses to biological motion. To confirm a relationship between these signatures and inherited risk of autism, we tested them in families enriched for genetic loading through undiagnosed ("carrier") females. METHODS: Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined brain responses to passive viewing of point light displays-depicting biological versus non-biological motion-in a sample of undiagnosed adult females enriched for inherited susceptibility to ASD on the basis of affectation in their respective family pedigrees. Brain responses in carrier females were compared to responses in age-, SRS-, and IQ-matched non-carrier-females-i.e., females unrelated to individuals with ASD. We conducted a hypothesis-driven analysis focused on previously published regions of interest as well as exploratory, brain-wide analyses designed to characterize more fully the rich responses to this paradigm. RESULTS: We observed robust responses to biological motion. Notwithstanding, the 12 regions implicated by prior research did not exhibit the hypothesized interaction between group (carriers vs. controls) and point light displays (biological vs. non-biological motion). Exploratory, brain-wide analyses identified this interaction in three novel regions. Post hoc analyses additionally revealed significant variations in the time course of brain activation in 20 regions spanning occipital and temporal cortex, indicating group differences in response to point light displays (irrespective of the nature of motion) for exploration in future studies. LIMITATIONS: We were unable to successfully eye-track all participants, which prevented us from being able to control for potential differences in eye gaze position. CONCLUSIONS: These methods confirmed pronounced neural signatures that differentiate brain responses to biological and scrambled motion. Our sample of undiagnosed females enriched for family genetic loading enabled discovery of numerous contrasts between carriers and non-carriers of risk of ASD that may index variations in visual attention and motion processing related to genetic susceptibility and inform our understanding of mechanisms incurred by inherited liability for ASD.