Time-series reconstruction of the molecular architecture of human centriole assembly.

Centriole biogenesis, as in most organelle assemblies, involves the sequential recruitment of sub-structural elements that will support its function. To uncover this process, we correlated the spatial location of 24 centriolar proteins with structural features using expansion microscopy. A time-series reconstruction of protein distributions throughout human procentriole assembly unveiled the molecular architecture of the centriole biogenesis steps. We found that the process initiates with the formation of a naked cartwheel devoid of microtubules. Next, the bloom phase progresses with microtubule blade assembly, concomitantly with radial separation and rapid cartwheel growth. In the subsequent elongation phase, the tubulin backbone grows linearly with the recruitment of the A-C linker, followed by proteins of the inner scaffold (IS). By following six structural modules, we modeled 4D assembly of the human centriole. Collectively, this work provides a framework to investigate the spatial and temporal assembly of large macromolecules.

Molecular Choreography of Acute Exercise.

Acute physical activity leads to several changes in metabolic, cardiovascular, and immune pathways. Although studies have examined selected changes in these pathways, the system-wide molecular response to an acute bout of exercise has not been fully characterized. We performed longitudinal multi-omic profiling of plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells including metabolome, lipidome, immunome, proteome, and transcriptome from 36 well-characterized volunteers, before and after a controlled bout of symptom-limited exercise. Time-series analysis revealed thousands of molecular changes and an orchestrated choreography of biological processes involving energy metabolism, oxidative stress, inflammation, tissue repair, and growth factor response, as well as regulatory pathways. Most of these processes were dampened and some were reversed in insulin-resistant participants. Finally, we discovered biological pathways involved in cardiopulmonary exercise response and developed prediction models revealing potential resting blood-based biomarkers of peak oxygen consumption.

Robust inference of causality in high-dimensional dynamical processes from the Information Imbalance of distance ranks.

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a statistical test capable of inferring the relative information content of different distance measures. We test whether the predictability of a putative driven system Y can be improved by incorporating information from a potential driver system X, without explicitly modeling the underlying dynamics and without the need to compute probability densities of the dynamic variables. This framework makes causality detection possible even between high-dimensional systems where only few of the variables are known or measured. Benchmark tests on coupled chaotic dynamical systems demonstrate that our approach outperforms other model-free causality detection methods, successfully handling both unidirectional and bidirectional couplings. We also show that the method can be used to robustly detect causality in human electroencephalography data.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts.

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

The contribution of gene flow, selection, and genetic drift to five thousand years of human allele frequency change.

Genomic time series from experimental evolution studies and ancient DNA datasets offer us a chance to directly observe the interplay of various evolutionary forces. We show how the genome-wide variance in allele frequency change between two time points can be decomposed into the contributions of gene flow, genetic drift, and linked selection. In closed populations, the contribution of linked selection is identifiable because it creates covariances between time intervals, and genetic drift does not. However, repeated gene flow between populations can also produce directionality in allele frequency change, creating covariances. We show how to accurately separate the fraction of variance in allele frequency change due to admixture and linked selection in a population receiving gene flow. We use two human ancient DNA datasets, spanning around 5,000 y, as time transects to quantify the contributions to the genome-wide variance in allele frequency change. We find that a large fraction of genome-wide change is due to gene flow. In both cases, after correcting for known major gene flow events, we do not observe a signal of genome-wide linked selection. Thus despite the known role of selection in shaping long-term polymorphism levels, and an increasing number of examples of strong selection on single loci and polygenic scores from ancient DNA, it appears to be gene flow and drift, and not selection, that are the main determinants of recent genome-wide allele frequency change. Our approach should be applicable to the growing number of contemporary and ancient temporal population genomics datasets.

Species invasions shift microbial phenology in a two-decade freshwater time series.

Invasive species impart abrupt changes on ecosystems, but their impacts on microbial communities are often overlooked. We paired a 20 y freshwater microbial community time series with zooplankton and phytoplankton counts, rich environmental data, and a 6 y cyanotoxin time series. We observed strong microbial phenological patterns that were disrupted by the invasions of spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii) and zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). First, we detected shifts in Cyanobacteria phenology. After the spiny water flea invasion, Cyanobacteria dominance crept earlier into clearwater; and after the zebra mussel invasion, Cyanobacteria abundance crept even earlier into the diatom-dominated spring. During summer, the spiny water flea invasion sparked a cascade of shifting diversity where zooplankton diversity decreased and Cyanobacteria diversity increased. Second, we detected shifts in cyanotoxin phenology. After the zebra mussel invasion, microcystin increased in early summer and the duration of toxin production increased by over a month. Third, we observed shifts in heterotrophic bacteria phenology. The Bacteroidota phylum and members of the acI Nanopelagicales lineage were differentially more abundant. The proportion of the bacterial community that changed differed by season; spring and clearwater communities changed most following the spiny water flea invasion that lessened clearwater intensity, while summer communities changed least following the zebra mussel invasion despite the shifts in Cyanobacteria diversity and toxicity. A modeling framework identified the invasions as primary drivers of the observed phenological changes. These long-term invasion-mediated shifts in microbial phenology demonstrate the interconnectedness of microbes with the broader food web and their susceptibility to long-term environmental change.

Network inference from short, noisy, low time-resolution, partial measurements: Application to C. elegans neuronal calcium dynamics.

Network link inference from measured time series data of the behavior of dynamically interacting network nodes is an important problem with wide-ranging applications, e.g., estimating synaptic connectivity among neurons from measurements of their calcium fluorescence. Network inference methods typically begin by using the measured time series to assign to any given ordered pair of nodes a numerical score reflecting the likelihood of a directed link between those two nodes. In typical cases, the measured time series data may be subject to limitations, including limited duration, low sampling rate, observational noise, and partial nodal state measurement. However, it is unknown how the performance of link inference techniques on such datasets depends on these experimental limitations of data acquisition. Here, we utilize both synthetic data generated from coupled chaotic systems as well as experimental data obtained from Caenorhabditis elegans neural activity to systematically assess the influence of data limitations on the character of scores reflecting the likelihood of a directed link between a given node pair. We do this for three network inference techniques: Granger causality, transfer entropy, and, a machine learning-based method. Furthermore, we assess the ability of appropriate surrogate data to determine statistical confidence levels associated with the results of link-inference techniques.

Predicting Functional Consequences of Recent Natural Selection in Britain.

Ancient DNA can directly reveal the contribution of natural selection to human genomic variation. However, while the analysis of ancient DNA has been successful at identifying genomic signals of selection, inferring the phenotypic consequences of that selection has been more difficult. Most trait-associated variants are noncoding, so we expect that a large proportion of the phenotypic effects of selection will also act through noncoding variation. Since we cannot measure gene expression directly in ancient individuals, we used an approach (Joint-Tissue Imputation [JTI]) developed to predict gene expression from genotype data. We tested for changes in the predicted expression of 17,384 protein coding genes over a time transect of 4,500 years using 91 present-day and 616 ancient individuals from Britain. We identified 28 genes at seven genomic loci with significant (false discovery rate [FDR] < 0.05) changes in predicted expression levels in this time period. We compared the results from our transcriptome-wide scan to a genome-wide scan based on estimating per-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) selection coefficients from time series data. At five previously identified loci, our approach allowed us to highlight small numbers of genes with evidence for significant shifts in expression from peaks that in some cases span tens of genes. At two novel loci (SLC44A5 and NUP85), we identify selection on gene expression not captured by scans based on genomic signatures of selection. Finally, we show how classical selection statistics (iHS and SDS) can be combined with JTI models to incorporate functional information into scans that use present-day data alone. These results demonstrate the potential of this type of information to explore both the causes and consequences of natural selection.

Genome-Wide Allele Frequency Changes Reveal That Dynamic Metapopulations Evolve Differently.

Two important characteristics of metapopulations are extinction-(re)colonization dynamics and gene flow between subpopulations. These processes can cause strong shifts in genome-wide allele frequencies that are generally not observed in "classical" (large, stable, and panmictic) populations. Subpopulations founded by one or a few individuals, the so-called propagule model, are initially expected to show intermediate allele frequencies at polymorphic sites until natural selection and genetic drift drive allele frequencies toward a mutation-selection-drift equilibrium characterized by a negative exponential-like distribution of the site frequency spectrum. We followed changes in site frequency spectrum distribution in a natural metapopulation of the cyclically parthenogenetic pond-dwelling microcrustacean Daphnia magna using biannual pool-seq samples collected over a 5-yr period from 118 ponds occupied by subpopulations of known age. As expected under the propagule model, site frequency spectra in newly founded subpopulations trended toward intermediate allele frequencies and shifted toward right-skewed distributions as the populations aged. Immigration and subsequent hybrid vigor altered this dynamic. We show that the analysis of site frequency spectrum dynamics is a powerful approach to understand evolution in metapopulations. It allowed us to disentangle evolutionary processes occurring in a natural metapopulation, where many subpopulations evolve in parallel. Thereby, stochastic processes like founder and immigration events lead to a pattern of subpopulation divergence, while genetic drift leads to converging site frequency spectrum distributions in the persisting subpopulations. The observed processes are well explained by the propagule model and highlight that metapopulations evolve differently from classical populations.

Intermittent ERK oscillations downstream of FGF in mouse embryonic stem cells.

Signal transduction networks generate characteristic dynamic activities to process extracellular signals and guide cell fate decisions such as to divide or differentiate. The differentiation of pluripotent cells is controlled by FGF/ERK signaling. However, only a few studies have addressed the dynamic activity of the FGF/ERK signaling network in pluripotent cells at high time resolution. Here, we use live cell sensors in wild-type and Fgf4-mutant mouse embryonic stem cells to measure dynamic ERK activity in single cells, for defined ligand concentrations and differentiation states. These sensors reveal pulses of ERK activity. Pulsing patterns are heterogeneous between individual cells. Consecutive pulse sequences occur more frequently than expected from simple stochastic models. Sequences become more prevalent with higher ligand concentration, but are rarer in more differentiated cells. Our results suggest that FGF/ERK signaling operates in the vicinity of a transition point between oscillatory and non-oscillatory dynamics in embryonic stem cells. The resulting heterogeneous dynamic signaling activities add a new dimension to cellular heterogeneity that may be linked to divergent fate decisions in stem cell cultures.

Covariate-guided Bayesian mixture of spline experts for the analysis of multivariate high-density longitudinal data.

With rapid development of techniques to measure brain activity and structure, statistical methods for analyzing modern brain-imaging data play an important role in the advancement of science. Imaging data that measure brain function are usually multivariate high-density longitudinal data and are heterogeneous across both imaging sources and subjects, which lead to various statistical and computational challenges. In this article, we propose a group-based method to cluster a collection of multivariate high-density longitudinal data via a Bayesian mixture of smoothing splines. Our method assumes each multivariate high-density longitudinal trajectory is a mixture of multiple components with different mixing weights. Time-independent covariates are assumed to be associated with the mixture components and are incorporated via logistic weights of a mixture-of-experts model. We formulate this approach under a fully Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling where the number of components is selected based on a deviance information criterion. The proposed method is compared to existing methods via simulation studies and is applied to a study on functional near-infrared spectroscopy, which aims to understand infant emotional reactivity and recovery from stress. The results reveal distinct patterns of brain activity, as well as associations between these patterns and selected covariates.

Incomplete time-series gene expression in integrative study for islet autoimmunity prediction.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) outcome prediction plays a vital role in identifying novel risk factors, ensuring early patient care and designing cohort studies. TEDDY is a longitudinal cohort study that collects a vast amount of multi-omics and clinical data from its participants to explore the progression and markers of T1D. However, missing data in the omics profiles make the outcome prediction a difficult task. TEDDY collected time series gene expression for less than 6% of enrolled participants. Additionally, for the participants whose gene expressions are collected, 79% time steps are missing. This study introduces an advanced bioinformatics framework for gene expression imputation and islet autoimmunity (IA) prediction. The imputation model generates synthetic data for participants with partially or entirely missing gene expression. The prediction model integrates the synthetic gene expression with other risk factors to achieve better predictive performance. Comprehensive experiments on TEDDY datasets show that: (1) Our pipeline can effectively integrate synthetic gene expression with family history, HLA genotype and SNPs to better predict IA status at 2 years (sensitivity 0.622, AUC 0.715) compared with the individual datasets and state-of-the-art results in the literature (AUC 0.682). (2) The synthetic gene expression contains predictive signals as strong as the true gene expression, reducing reliance on expensive and long-term longitudinal data collection. (3) Time series gene expression is crucial to the proposed improvement and shows significantly better predictive ability than cross-sectional gene expression. (4) Our pipeline is robust to limited data availability. Availability: Code is available at https://github.com/compbiolabucf/TEDDY.

Identifying local associations in biological time series: algorithms, statistical significance, and applications.

Local associations refer to spatial-temporal correlations that emerge from the biological realm, such as time-dependent gene co-expression or seasonal interactions between microbes. One can reveal the intricate dynamics and inherent interactions of biological systems by examining the biological time series data for these associations. To accomplish this goal, local similarity analysis algorithms and statistical methods that facilitate the local alignment of time series and assess the significance of the resulting alignments have been developed. Although these algorithms were initially devised for gene expression analysis from microarrays, they have been adapted and accelerated for multi-omics next generation sequencing datasets, achieving high scientific impact. In this review, we present an overview of the historical developments and recent advances for local similarity analysis algorithms, their statistical properties, and real applications in analyzing biological time series data. The benchmark data and analysis scripts used in this review are freely available at http://github.com/labxscut/lsareview.

scMaSigPro: Differential Expression Analysis along Single-Cell Trajectories.

MOTIVATION: Understanding the dynamics of gene expression across different cellular states is crucial for discerning the mechanisms underneath cellular differentiation. Genes that exhibit variation in mean expression as a function of Pseudotime and between branching trajectories are expected to govern cell fate decisions. We introduce scMaSigPro, a method for the identification of differential gene expression patterns along Pseudotime and branching paths simultaneously. RESULTS: We assessed the performance of scMaSigPro using synthetic and public datasets. Our evaluation shows that scMaSigPro outperforms existing methods in controlling the False Positive Rate and is computationally efficient. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: scMaSigPro is available as a free R package (version 4.0 or higher) under the GPL(≥2) license on GitHub at 'github.com/BioBam/scMaSigPro' and archived with version 0.03 on Zenodo at 'zenodo.org/records/12568922'.

Exploring intricate connectivity patterns for cognitive functioning and neurological disorders: incorporating frequency-domain NC method into fMRI analysis.

This study extends the application of the frequency-domain new causality method to functional magnetic resonance imaging analysis. Strong causality, weak causality, balanced causality, cyclic causality, and transitivity causality were constructed to simulate varying degrees of causal associations among multivariate functional-magnetic-resonance-imaging blood-oxygen-level-dependent signals. Data from 1,252 groups of individuals with different degrees of cognitive impairment were collected. The frequency-domain new causality method was employed to construct directed efficient connectivity networks of the brain, analyze the statistical characteristics of topological variations in brain regions related to cognitive impairment, and utilize these characteristics as features for training a deep learning model. The results demonstrated that the frequency-domain new causality method accurately detected causal associations among simulated signals of different degrees. The deep learning tests also confirmed the superior performance of new causality, surpassing the other three methods in terms of accuracy, precision, and recall rates. Furthermore, consistent significant differences were observed in the brain efficiency networks, where several subregions defined by the multimodal parcellation method of Human Connectome Project simultaneously appeared in the topological statistical results of different patient groups. This suggests a significant association between these fine-grained cortical subregions, driven by multimodal data segmentation, and human cognitive function, making them potential biomarkers for further analysis of Alzheimer's disease.

Impact of National Public-Private Mix and Medical Expense Support Program to Control Tuberculosis in South Korea: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat to global public health. Various measures at the national level have been implemented to control TB, and no evidence with long-term effectiveness has yet been evaluated on TB control programs. We confirmed the long-term effectiveness of the TB control programs in reducing overall burden in South Korea using interrupted time series analysis. Our finding suggests that, along with the public-private mix, relieving the economic burden of people with TB may complement achieving the End TB Strategy. For countries currently developing strategies for TB control, results may provide important insights in effective TB control.

Estimated population-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines against all-cause pneumonia mortality among unvaccinated age groups in five Latin American countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multi-country study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile. METHODS: Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000-2019, with 1,795,789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the post-vaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends. RESULTS: No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among ≥65 years in Chile. DISCUSSION: While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

Whole proteome analysis of germinating and outgrowing Bacillus subtilis 168.

In this study, we present a high-resolution dataset and bioinformatic analysis of the proteome of Bacillus subtilis 168 trp+ (BSB1) during germination and spore outgrowth. Samples were collected at 14 different time points (ranging from 0 to 130 min) in three biological replicates after spore inoculation into germination medium. A total of 2191 proteins were identified and categorized based on their expression kinetics. We observed four distinct clusters that were analyzed for functional categories and KEGG pathways annotations. The examination of newly synthesized proteins between successive time points revealed significant changes, particularly within the first 50 min. The dataset provides an information base that can be used for modeling purposes and inspire the design of new experiments.

Temporal classification of short time series data.

MOTIVATION: Within the frame of their genetic capacity, organisms are able to modify their molecular state to cope with changing environmental conditions or induced genetic disposition. As high throughput methods are becoming increasingly affordable, time series analysis techniques are applied frequently to study the complex dynamic interplay between genes, proteins, and metabolites at the physiological and molecular level. Common analysis approaches fail to simultaneously include (i) information about the replicate variance and (ii) the limited number of responses/shapes that a biological system is typically able to take. RESULTS: We present a novel approach to model and classify short time series signals, conceptually based on a classical time series analysis, where the dependency of the consecutive time points is exploited. Constrained spline regression with automated model selection separates between noise and signal under the assumption that highly frequent changes are less likely to occur, simultaneously preserving information about the detected variance. This enables a more precise representation of the measured information and improves temporal classification in order to identify biologically interpretable correlations among the data. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: An open source F# implementation of the presented method and documentation of its usage is freely available in the TempClass repository, https://github.com/CSBiology/TempClass  [58].

Computer vision digitization of smartphone images of anesthesia paper health records from low-middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: In low-middle income countries, healthcare providers primarily use paper health records for capturing data. Paper health records are utilized predominately due to the prohibitive cost of acquisition and maintenance of automated data capture devices and electronic medical records. Data recorded on paper health records is not easily accessible in a digital format to healthcare providers. The lack of real time accessible digital data limits healthcare providers, researchers, and quality improvement champions to leverage data to improve patient outcomes. In this project, we demonstrate the novel use of computer vision software to digitize handwritten intraoperative data elements from smartphone photographs of paper anesthesia charts from the University Teaching Hospital of Kigali. We specifically report our approach to digitize checkbox data, symbol-denoted systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and physiological data. METHODS: We implemented approaches for removing perspective distortions from smartphone photographs, removing shadows, and improving image readability through morphological operations. YOLOv8 models were used to deconstruct the anesthesia paper chart into specific data sections. Handwritten blood pressure symbols and physiological data were identified, and values were assigned using deep neural networks. Our work builds upon the contributions of previous research by improving upon their methods, updating the deep learning models to newer architectures, as well as consolidating them into a single piece of software. RESULTS: The model for extracting the sections of the anesthesia paper chart achieved an average box precision of 0.99, an average box recall of 0.99, and an mAP0.5-95 of 0.97. Our software digitizes checkbox data with greater than 99% accuracy and digitizes blood pressure data with a mean average error of 1.0 and 1.36 mmHg for systolic and diastolic blood pressure respectively. Overall accuracy for physiological data which includes oxygen saturation, inspired oxygen concentration and end tidal carbon dioxide concentration was 85.2%. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that under normal photography conditions we can digitize checkbox, blood pressure and physiological data to within human accuracy when provided legible handwriting. Our contributions provide improved access to digital data to healthcare practitioners in low-middle income countries.