Measuring algorithmically infused societies.

It has been the historic responsibility of the social sciences to investigate human societies. Fulfilling this responsibility requires social theories, measurement models and social data. Most existing theories and measurement models in the social sciences were not developed with the deep societal reach of algorithms in mind. The emergence of 'algorithmically infused societies'-societies whose very fabric is co-shaped by algorithmic and human behaviour-raises three key challenges: the insufficient quality of measurements, the complex consequences of (mis)measurements, and the limits of existing social theories. Here we argue that tackling these challenges requires new social theories that account for the impact of algorithmic systems on social realities. To develop such theories, we need new methodologies for integrating data and measurements into theory construction. Given the scale at which measurements can be applied, we believe measurement models should be trustworthy, auditable and just. To achieve this, the development of measurements should be transparent and participatory, and include mechanisms to ensure measurement quality and identify possible harms. We argue that computational social scientists should rethink what aspects of algorithmically infused societies should be measured, how they should be measured, and the consequences of doing so.

Meaningful measures of human society in the twenty-first century.

Science rarely proceeds beyond what scientists can observe and measure, and sometimes what can be observed proceeds far ahead of scientific understanding. The twenty-first century offers such a moment in the study of human societies. A vastly larger share of behaviours is observed today than would have been imaginable at the close of the twentieth century. Our interpersonal communication, our movements and many of our everyday actions, are all potentially accessible for scientific research; sometimes through purposive instrumentation for scientific objectives (for example, satellite imagery), but far more often these objectives are, literally, an afterthought (for example, Twitter data streams). Here we evaluate the potential of this massive instrumentation-the creation of techniques for the structured representation and quantification-of human behaviour through the lens of scientific measurement and its principles. In particular, we focus on the question of how we extract scientific meaning from data that often were not created for such purposes. These data present conceptual, computational and ethical challenges that require a rejuvenation of our scientific theories to keep up with the rapidly changing social realities and our capacities to capture them. We require, in other words, new approaches to manage, use and analyse data.

Thinking clearly about social aspects of infectious disease transmission.

Social and cultural forces shape almost every aspect of infectious disease transmission in human populations, as well as our ability to measure, understand, and respond to epidemics. For directly transmitted infections, pathogen transmission relies on human-to-human contact, with kinship, household, and societal structures shaping contact patterns that in turn determine epidemic dynamics. Social, economic, and cultural forces also shape patterns of exposure, health-seeking behaviour, infection outcomes, the likelihood of diagnosis and reporting of cases, and the uptake of interventions. Although these social aspects of epidemiology are hard to quantify and have limited the generalizability of modelling frameworks in a policy context, new sources of data on relevant aspects of human behaviour are increasingly available. Researchers have begun to embrace data from mobile devices and other technologies as useful proxies for behavioural drivers of disease transmission, but there is much work to be done to measure and validate these approaches, particularly for policy-making. Here we discuss how integrating local knowledge in the design of model frameworks and the interpretation of new data streams offers the possibility of policy-relevant models for public health decision-making as well as the development of robust, generalizable theories about human behaviour in relation to infectious diseases.

Protest movements involving limited violence can sometimes be effective: Evidence from the 2020 BlackLivesMatter protests.

SignificanceThe effects of recent protests for racial equality, particularly when they included violence, are currently of public and academic interest. To better understand these effects, we combine a dataset of all 2020 BlackLivesMatter protests with survey data containing measures of prejudice and support for police reform. Protests were not associated with reductions in prejudice, but were associated with increases in support for police reform. Specifically, a mix of nonviolent and violent protests was associated with an increase in police-reform support among conservatives living in liberal areas. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple measures of protest effectiveness and suggests that mass protest (including when it mixes nonviolence and violence) can be effective at advancing the movement's goals.

A 44-y perspective on the influence of cash on Ju/'hoansi Bushman networks of sharing and gifting.

Money has been portrayed by major theorists as an agent of individualism, an instrument of freedom, a currency that removes personal values attached to things, and a generator of avarice. Regardless, the impact of money varies greatly with the cultural turf of the recipient societies. For traditional subsistence economies based on gifting and sharing, surplus perishable resources foraged from the environment carry low costs to the giver compared with the benefits to the receiver. With cash, costs to the giver are usually the same as benefits to the receiver, making sharing expensive and introducing new choices. Using quantitative data on possessions and expenditures collected over a 44-y period from 1974 to 2018 among the Ju/'hoansi (!Kung) in southern Africa, former hunter-gatherers, we look at how individuals spend monetary income, how a partial monetary economy alters traditional norms and institutions (egalitarianism, gifting, and sharing), and how institutions from the past steer change. Results show that gifting declines as cash is spent to increase the well-being of individual families and that gifting and sharing decrease and networks narrow. The sharing of meals and casual gifting hold fast. Substantial material inequalities develop, even between neighbors, but social, gender, and political equalities persist. A strong tradition for individual autonomy combined with monetary income allows individuals to spend their money as they choose, adapt to modern conditions, and pursue new options. However, new challenges are emerging to develop greater community cooperation and build substantial and sustainable economies in the face of such centrifugal forces.

Protracted Indian monsoon droughts of the past millennium and their societal impacts.

Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period (ca. since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region's current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.

Sociocultural determinants of global mask-wearing behavior.

Behavioral responses influence the trajectories of epidemics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduced pathogen transmission and mortality worldwide. However, despite the global pandemic threat, there was substantial cross-country variation in the adoption of protective behaviors that is not explained by disease prevalence alone. In particular, many countries show a pattern of slow initial mask adoption followed by sharp transitions to high acceptance rates. These patterns are characteristic of behaviors that depend on social norms or peer influence. We develop a game-theoretic model of mask wearing where the utility of wearing a mask depends on the perceived risk of infection, social norms, and mandates from formal institutions. In this model, increasing pathogen transmission or policy stringency can trigger social tipping points in collective mask wearing. We show that complex social dynamics can emerge from simple individual interactions and that sociocultural variables and local policies are important for recovering cross-country variation in the speed and breadth of mask adoption. These results have implications for public health policy and data collection.

Genetically identical mice express alternative reproductive tactics depending on social conditions in the field.

In many species, establishing and maintaining a territory is critical to survival and reproduction, and an animal's ability to do so is strongly influenced by the presence and density of competitors. Here we manipulate social conditions to study the alternative reproductive tactics displayed by genetically identical, age-matched laboratory mice competing for territories under ecologically realistic social environmental conditions. We introduced adult males and females of the laboratory mouse strain C57BL/6J into a large, outdoor field enclosure containing defendable resource zones under one of two social conditions. We first created a low-density social environment, such that the number of available territories exceeded the number of males. After males established stable territories, we introduced a pulse of intruder males and observed the resulting defensive and invasive tactics employed. In response to this change in social environment, males with large territories invested more in patrolling but were less effective at excluding intruder males as compared with males with small territories. Intruding males failed to establish territories and displayed an alternative tactic featuring greater exploration as compared with genetically identical territorial males. Alternative tactics did not lead to equal reproductive success-males that acquired territories experienced greater survival and had greater access to females.

A monetary model of global peace and health.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to expand on the concept of peace and health by drawing from Keynes' theory of the economic consequences of peace, in light of the global pandemic experienced in 2020 due to COVID_19. METHODS: In this paper, I will elaborate on the concept of 'security', as an indicator of peace in the time of biological shocks, in order to expand the definition of Keynesian precautionary motivation. This puts forth a new monetary policy model developed to make contributions to achieving global peace. In so doing, I will calculate the optimal growth rate of discount rate through utilizing the Global Peace Index (GPI), adjusted by the Case Fatality Risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in a dynamic shopping time monetary model. This analysis is comprised of the top 15 GDP countries as well as the 10 most and least peaceful countries in 2020. RESULTS: The results indicate that households in more peaceful and healthy countries tend to hold less money compared to those in less peaceful and healthy countries. Besides, the discount rate needs to be reduced due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and the decrease in the level of peace in the economy. CONCLUSION: Insofar as the imposition of fines through international legal circles on countries with an insignificant health and peace policy will increase the cost of liquidity, other alternative methods of financing will be affor dable for the countries.

Migration process of Venezuelan women to Brazil: living conditions and use of health services in Manaus and Boa Vista, 2018-2021.

BACKGROUND: The last decade saw the emergence of a new significant migration corridor due to the mass migration of Venezuelans to neighboring countries in South America. Since 2018, Brazil became the third host country of Venezuelan displaced populations. Little is known about how migratory processes affect needs, access to social programs, and public health services of migrant women. The goal of this study is to shed light on the socio-economic profile, living conditions, and use of health services of Venezuelan migrant women in two main reception cities in Brazil. METHODS: A survey was conducted using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in the cities of Boa Vista (Roraima), and Manaus (Amazonas). The study included 2012 Venezuelan migrant women aged between 15 and 49 years old who migrated from Venezuela to Brazil between 2018 and 2021. Relative prevalence was calculated, and the χ2 test was used to analyse the homogeneity of proportions. All analyses considered the complex sampling. RESULTS: The main reasons for migrating relate to difficulties obtaining food (54%) and accessing health services (37.8%) in their country of origin. They were young and mixed race (65.7%) and had high school education (69.9%). In Manaus, 3.7% of the interviewees declared that they had no family income in the last month, while in Boa Vista, it was higher (66.2%) (p-value < 0.001). Almost one-third of them sought health care in the last 15 days, and 95% of them received care. The residents of Boa Vista arrived more recently and family income and access to paid work improved with time of residence in Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: Given the increasing flow of Venezuelan migrants crossing to Brazil, a reception system was established for the provision of food, shelter, access to health services, and income transfer programs to migrants. This was the case despite high unemployment and poverty levels and income inequality, particularly in the city of Boa Vista. However, the majority had legal migrant status and had access to the public and universal healthcare system in Brazil (SUS). The use of the SUS was similar in both cities, acting as a buffer for the differences in opportunities offered.

Quinoa, potatoes, and llamas fueled emergent social complexity in the Lake Titicaca Basin of the Andes.

The Lake Titicaca basin was one of the major centers for cultural development in the ancient world. This lacustrine environment is unique in the high, dry Andean altiplano, and its aquatic and terrestrial resources are thought to have contributed to the florescence of complex societies in this region. Nevertheless, it remains unclear to what extent local aquatic resources, particularly fish, and the introduced crop, maize, which can be grown in regions along the lakeshores, contributed to facilitating sustained food production and population growth, which underpinned increasing social political complexity starting in the Formative Period (1400 BCE to 500 CE) and culminating with the Tiwanaku state (500 to 1100 CE). Here, we present direct dietary evidence from stable isotope analysis of human skeletal remains spanning over two millennia, together with faunal and floral reference materials, to reconstruct foodways and ecological interactions in southern Lake Titicaca over time. Bulk stable isotope analysis, coupled with compound-specific amino acid stable isotope analysis, allows better discrimination between resources consumed across aquatic and terrestrial environments. Together, this evidence demonstrates that human diets predominantly relied on C3 plants, particularly quinoa and tubers, along with terrestrial animals, notably domestic camelids. Surprisingly, fish were not a significant source of animal protein, but a slight increase in C4 plant consumption verifies the increasing importance of maize in the Middle Horizon. These results underscore the primary role of local terrestrial food resources in securing a nutritious diet that allowed for sustained population growth, even in the face of documented climate and political change across these periods.

Social conditions facilitate water conservation in a solitary bee.

Climatic stressors are important drivers in the evolution of social behavior. Social animals tend to thrive in harsh and unpredictable environments, yet the precise benefits driving these patterns are often unclear. Here, we explore water conservation in forced associations of a solitary bee (Melissodes tepidus timberlakei Cockerell, 1926) to test the hypothesis that grouping can generate synergistic physiological benefits in an incipient social context. Paired bees displayed mutual tolerance and experienced reduced water loss relative to singleton bees when exposed to acute low-humidity stress, with no change in activity levels. While the mechanism underlying these benefits remains unknown, social advantages like these can facilitate the evolution of cooperation among nonrelatives and offer important insights into the social consequences of climate change.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance of firms in the era of geopolitical conflicts.

Do geopolitical conflicts matter for the environmental, social, governance (ESG) and overall ESG performance of firms? We answer this question by studying the impact of geopolitical conflict of a country on the ESG performance, separately and collectively, of firms of that country. We use data from Refinitiv and UCDP/PRIO (Uppsala Conflict Data Program/International Peace Research Institute, Oslo) databases for the period from 2002 to 2021 for 79 countries and we use fixed effects regression as our main methodology. We find that if a country is in a geopolitical conflict, their firms are impacted in the form of lower E, S and G performance and overall ESG performance, with stronger effects for developed countries. This comes on top of the direct costs of geopolitical conflicts. Our results are robust to country, year and firm fixed effects as well as robust to endogeneity as we use Lewbel (2012) estimator to eliminate any chances of endogeneity. We provide first evidence on this topic and it has geopolitical and socioeconomical implications.

Energy-saving targets and carbon neutrality: A perspective on carbon emissions and carbon substitution in 288 Chinese cities.

Environmental protection is a shared task among nations. In pursuit of its commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China has implemented more robust energy-saving targets. This study utilizes panel data from 288 Chinese cities spanning from 2006 to 2020 to examine the policy effects of energy-saving targets on carbon neutrality. The findings reveal that (1) energy-saving targets positively impact carbon substitution, resulting in reduced carbon emissions and facilitating the progress towards carbon neutrality through three primary channels: energy governance, energy production, and energy consumption. (2) The influence of energy-saving targets on carbon neutrality exhibits a significant spatial spillover effect, driven primarily by the reduction in carbon emissions, although the spatial spillover effect of carbon substitution is relatively limited. The collaboration between the government and enterprises plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality, while the engagement of the general public is yet to be fully realized. (3) However, the inadequacy of enhancing carbon neutrality through energy-saving targets lies in the compulsory emissions reduction behavior at the expense of sacrificing some economic benefits in cities that overachieve energy-saving targets. This undermines the coordinated development of ecology and economy. Therefore, it is recommended to establish a policy implementation monitoring system to ensure the scientific basis of policy objectives, enhance the level of green technology innovation, accelerate the digital transformation of enterprises, and establish a synergistic mechanism that involves multiple stakeholders.

Impact of different geopolitical factors on the energy transition: The role of geopolitical threats, geopolitical acts, and geopolitical risks.

In order to better understand the impact of different geopolitical factors on energy transition, the impact of geopolitical threats (war threats, peace threats, military buildups, nuclear threats and terror threats), geopolitical acts (beginning of war, escalation of war and terror acts), and geopolitical risks on energy transition were systematically investigated. Green technologies, natural resource rents and trade openness were incorporated into the analytical framework, and a dynamic panel threshold model was utilized to explore the impact of geopolitical risks on energy transition across different income levels. To this end, data on geopolitical threats, geopolitical acts, geopolitical risks, energy transitions and other key social economic factors for 38 countries from 2000 to 2022 were collected. The heterogeneity simulation results show that there is a negative correlation between geopolitical threats, geopolitical acts, geopolitical risks and energy transition. Moreover, geopolitical threats have more significant hindrance to the energy transition than geopolitical acts. The results of the nonlinear panel simulation show that there is a double threshold effect of geopolitical risks on energy transition. When geopolitical risk crosses the threshold (0.5197), the coefficient decreases to -0.29, which means that the rising geopolitical risk increases the inhibition on energy transition, and the inhibitory effect is slightly weakened after a certain level. Finally, policy implications are offered.

Climate change and geopolitical conflicts: The role of ESG readiness.

This study examines the relationship between climate change vulnerability and geopolitical risk using data on 42 countries from 1995 to 2021. Utilising two distinct indices, the climate vulnerability index (CVI) and the country-specific geopolitical risk (CGPR) indices, we find that countries with high vulnerability to climate change are more likely to experience geopolitical conflicts. Further analysis reveals that country-level overall economic, social, and governance (ESG) readiness significantly mitigates this detrimental effect. This moderation is mainly attributed to the social and governance readiness measures. Additional tests indicate that the mitigating role of ESG is more pronounced for countries with high institutional governance. These results remain resilient through a set of endogeneity tests using matched samples of countries generated through propensity score matching (PSM) estimation. Our findings suggest that addressing climate vulnerability is crucial to promoting global peace and geopolitical stability.

Is peace a human phenomenon?

Peace is a hallmark of human societies. However, certain ant species engage in long-term intergroup resource sharing, which is remarkably similar to peace among human groups. We discuss how individual and group payoff distributions are affected by kinship, dispersal, and age structure; the challenges of diagnosing peace; and the benefits of comparing convergent complex behaviours in disparate taxa.

Impediments to peace.

While effective institutional practices are critical for the evolution of peace certain factors deter their effectiveness. In-group and out-group dynamics may make peace difficult between culturally distinct groups. Critical ecological conditions often lead to intractable conflict over resources. And within group conflicts of interest most prominently between generations may inhibit effective peace making.

Group-structured cultural selection can explain both war and peace.

Glowacki recognizes the importance of norms in enabling war and peace, but does not focus on the cultural evolutionary mechanisms by which these norms are maintained. We highlight how group-structured cultural selection shapes the scale and nature of peaceful intergroup interactions. The mechanistic perspective reveals that there are many more cases of peaceful intergroup relations than the current account implies.

Capacities for peace, and war, are old and related to Homo construction of worlds and communities.

The capacities required for both peace and war predate 100,000 years ago in the genus Homo are deeply entangled in the modes by which humans physically and perceptually construct their worlds and communities, and may not be sufficiently captured by economic models.