A simple nomogram to predict dengue shock syndrome: A study of 4522 south east Asian children.

Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) substantially worsens the prognosis of children with dengue infection. This study aimed to develop a simple clinical tool to predict the risk of DSS. A cohort of 2221 Thai children with a confirmed dengue infection who were admitted to King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital between 1987 and 2007 was conducted. Another data set from a previous publication comprising 2,301 Vietnamese children with dengue infection was employed to create a pooled data set, which was randomly split into training (n = 3182), testing (n = 697) and validating (n = 643) datasets. Logistic regression was compared to alternative machine learning algorithms to derive the most predictive model for DSS. 4522 children, including 899 DSS cases (758 Thai and 143 Vietnamese children) with a mean age of 9.8 ± 3.4 years, were analyzed. Among the 12 candidate clinical parameters, the Bayesian Model Averaging algorithm retained the most predictive subset of five covariates, including body weight, history of vomiting, liver size, hematocrit levels, and platelet counts. At an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81-0.90) in testing data set, logistic regression outperformed random forest, XGBoost and support vector machine algorithms, with AUC values being 0.82 (0.77-0.88), 0.82 (0.76-0.88), and 0.848 (0.81-0.89), respectively. At its optimal threshold, this model had a sensitivity of 0.71 (0.62-0.80), a specificity of 0.84 (0.81-0.88), and an accuracy of 0.82 (0.78-0.85) on validating data set with consistent performance across subgroup analyses by age and gender. A logistic regression-based nomogram was developed to facilitate the application of this model. This work introduces a simple and robust clinical model for DSS prediction that is well-tailored for children in resource-limited settings.

Genotype of dengue virus serotype 1 in relation to severe dengue in Guangzhou, China.

Guangzhou has been the city most affected by the dengue virus (DENV) in China, with a predominance of DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1). Viral factors such as dengue serotype and genotype are associated with severe dengue (SD). However, none of the studies have investigated the relationship between DENV-1 genotypes and SD. To understand the association between DENV-1 genotypes and SD, the clinical manifestations of patients infected with different genotypes were investigated. A total of 122 patients with confirmed DENV-1 genotype infection were recruited for this study. The clinical manifestations, laboratory tests, and levels of inflammatory mediator factors were statistically analyzed to investigate the characteristics of clinical manifestations and immune response on the DENV-1 genotype. In the case of DENV-1 infection, the incidence of SD with genotype V infection was significantly higher than that with genotype I infection. Meanwhile, patients infected with genotype V were more common in ostealgia and bleeding significantly. In addition, levels of inflammatory mediator factors including IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-10, and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 were higher in patients with SD infected with genotype V. Meanwhile, the concentrations of regulated upon activation normal T-cell expressed and secreted and growth-related gene alpha were lower in patients with SD infected with genotype V. The higher incidence of SD in patients infected with DENV-1 genotype V may be attributed to elevated cytokines and adhesion molecules, along with decreased chemokines.

Risk factors associated with severe dengue in Latin America: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Severe dengue is a significant health problem in Latin America, with children being the most affected. Understanding risk factors for severe dengue is crucial for enhancing patient care. Therefore, this study aims to systematically review the literature to identify the risk factors associated with severe dengue in Latin America through systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: PubMed, SciELO, LILACS and EMBASE databases were used to search for eligible scientific articles for the review. The outcomes considered were symptoms of severe dengue, hospitalisation and death. The Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist was used to assess the quality of the studies. Data analysis was performed using STATA v 13.0 software. The degree of heterogeneity between studies was quantified using the I2 measure, and statistically significant results were defined as those with p values <0.05. RESULTS: Of the 1876 articles screened, 47 articles were included in the systematic review and 45 articles were analysed through meta-analysis. Identified risk factors associated with severe dengue included secondary dengue infection, female sex, white or Caucasian ethnicity and specific signs and symptoms such as headache, myalgia and/or arthralgia, vomiting/nausea, abdominal pain or tenderness, diarrhoea, prostration, lethargy, fatigue or similar. For the death outcome, respiratory symptoms and age <18 years were identified as risk factors. On the other hand, in women, the diagnosis of positive tourniquet test, platelet count <100,000 per µL and symptoms of capillary fragility were associated with a lower probability of death. These data highlight the importance of early screening of patients, to identify possible haemorrhagic signs and reduce deaths from dengue. This study has limitations, including possible publication bias, heterogeneity of results and study design biases. CONCLUSION: These findings are significant for shaping strategies, management approaches and identifying high-risk groups, which will help establish future guidelines.

Evaluation of clinical and laboratory characteristics of dengue viral infection and risk factors of dengue hemorrhagic fever: a multi-center retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dengue Viral Infection (DVI) has become endemic in Pakistan since the first major outbreak in Karachi in 1996. Despite aggressive measures taken by relevant authorities, Pakistan has been dealing with a worsening dengue crisis for the past two decades. DHF is severe form of dengue infection which is linked with significant morbidity and mortality. Early identification of severe dengue infections can reduce the morbidity and mortality. In this context we planned current study in which we find out the different factors related with DHF as well as clinical laboratory features of DHF and compare them to DF so that patients can be best evaluated for DHF and managed accordingly at admission. METHODS: Retrospective study conducted over a period of 6 years (2013-2018) in two tertiary care hospitals in Pakistan. Data were collected by using a pre-structured data collection form. Data were statistically analyzed to determine the clinical and laboratory characteristics of DVI and risk factors of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). RESULTS: A total 512 dengue cases (34.05 ± 15.08 years; Male 69.53%) were reviewed. Most common clinical manifestations of DVI were fever (99.60%), headache (89.1%), chills (86.5%), rigors (86.5%), myalgia (72.3%). Less common clinical manifestations were vomiting (52.5%), arthralgia (50.2%) and skin rashes (47.5%). Furthermore, nasal bleeding (44.1%), gum bleeding (32.6%), pleural effusion (13.9%) and hematuria (13.1%) were more profound clinical presentations among DHF patients. Mortality rate was 1.5% in this study. Logistic regression analysis indicated that delayed hospitalization (OR: 2.30) and diabetes mellitus (OR:2.71), shortness of breath (OR:2.21), association with risk groups i.e., living near stagnant water, travelling to endemic areas, living in endemic regions (OR:1.95), and presence of warning signs (OR:2.18) were identified as risk factors of DHF. Statistically we found that there is strong association of diabetes mellitus (DM) with DHF while the patient suffering from DM individually had higher odds (2.71) of developing DHF than patients without disease. CONCLUSIONS: The current study demonstrated that the clinical and laboratory profiles of DF and DHF are significantly distinct. Significant predictors of DHF were advanced age, diabetes mellitus, ascites, pleural effusion, thick gallbladder and delayed hospitalization. The identification of these factors at early stage provides opportunities for the clinicians to identify high risk patients and to reduce dengue-related morbidity and mortality.

Mucocutaneous Manifestations in Patients with Dengue Fever: From the EPIDENGUE Cohort on Reunion Island.

Nearly 4 billion people live in a dengue risk area worldwide. The prevalence of dengue-related mucocutaneous manifestations and their association with severe dengue differ across studies. The aim of the study was to describe the characteristics of patients with dengue-related mucocutaneous manifestations and to investigate those were associated with severe dengue. A retrospective study was conducted in 2019 among patients with a positive RT-PCR for dengue at the University Hospital of Reunion, which has been experiencing a re-emergence of dengue since 2018. Of 847 patients with confirmed dengue, 283 (33.4%) developed mucocutaneous manifestations. Only manifestations of dehydration such as glossitis, dysgeusia, or conjunctivitis were associated with severe dengue, unlike pruritus and rash, in bivariate analysis but not in multivariate analysis. The rash and pruritus of dengue appear to be accompanied by a pronounced flu-like syndrome in younger people without comorbidity or severity, although careful examination of mucous membranes would better identify signs of dehydration and thus cases likely to worsen.

Early-phase factors associated with pediatric severe dengue in the Thai-Myanmar cross-border region.

BACKGROUND: Dengue disease is caused by dengue virus, which is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Although most infected individuals have benign febrile illness or no apparent symptoms, a small percentage develop severe dengue, a potentially fatal condition that occurs after a febrile stage. Many studies have identified factors predicting dengue severity among different populations and time courses. To help find practical approaches applicable in remote settings, we focused on the investigation of early factors associated with severe dengue in Thai-Myanmar cross-border region. METHODS: This retrospective case-control study was performed to determine factors contributing to severe dengue in the pediatric population. We reviewed the hospital records of patients with dengue infection aged 0-19 years who were admitted to Maesot General Hospital, situated near the Thai-Myanmar cross-border region, between 2017 and 2022. Medical data during the first 5 days of illness and outcomes were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: This study included 144 patients with a serologically confirmed diagnosis of dengue infection, with 43 severe and 101 non-severe cases. Among biological factors, being an infant and belonging to an ethnic group in Myanmar showed a significant association with severe dengue in the univariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that the presence of mucosal bleeding (adjusted OR 5.39, 95% CI 1.06-27.52, P = 0.043), a change in hematocrit ≥ 10% (adjusted OR 3.68, 95% CI 1.15-11.74, P = 0.028), and serum albumin < 35 g/L (adjusted OR 8.10, 95% CI 2.55-25.72, P < 0.001) during the first 5 days of illness were significantly associated with developing severe dengue. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the use of certain WHO warning signs and hematocrit change during febrile phase to predict pediatric severe dengue in low-resource settings. Potential factors such as very young age and ethnic groups warrant further exploration to identify risks contributing to severe dengue infection.

Descriptive and comparative analysis of mucocutaneous manifestations in patients with dengue fever: A prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is an arbovirosis affecting nearly 4 billion people worldwide. Since 2018, dengue has been re-emerging in Reunion Island. The incidence of mucocutaneous manifestations varies according to the studies and is generally called 'rash'. OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of different mucocutaneous symptoms and describe the characteristics of patients developing these symptoms and the clinical signs associated with severe dengue. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 2019 at the University Hospital of La Réunion, in patients presenting a positive PCR for dengue. Descriptive analyses were performed. All cases in the prospective study were examined by a dermatologist. RESULTS: A total of 163 cases were included. The prevalence of mucocutaneous signs was 80.4%. A pruritus was reported in 33.7% cases, an erythematous rash in 29.4% and a mouth involvement including lip, tongue, cheek, angular cheilitis, pharyngitis, mouth ulcer and gingivitis in 31.3%. Most of symptoms appeared in the first days, but some of them could disappear only after the 3rd week. Mucocutaneous signs were not associated with a severe dengue fever (p = 0.54), but ecchymotic purpura was (p = 0.037). In multivariate analysis, skin involvement was associated with flu-like syndrome (headache, pharyngitis, rachis pain) and patient required rehydration but not invasive reanimation. CONCLUSION: This work confirms the high prevalence of skin symptoms in dengue disease, but also their wide diversity. The mucocutaneous involvement of dengue fever appears to be accompanied by a pronounced flu-like syndrome in people without severity, but careful examination to identify ecchymotic purpura or sign of dehydration in the mucous membranes would better identify cases that may worsen.

Frequency of pleural effusion in dengue patients by severity, age and imaging modality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identification of pleural effusion (PE) in dengue infection is an objective measure of plasma leakage and may predict disease progression. However, no studies have systematically assessed the frequency of PE in patients with dengue, and whether this differs across age and imaging modality. METHODS: We searched Pubmed, Embase Web of Science and Lilacs (period 1900-2021) for studies reporting on PE in dengue patients (hospitalized and outpatient). We defined PE as fluid in the thoracic cavity detected by any imaging test. The study was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021228862). Complicated dengue was defined as hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome or severe dengue. RESULTS: The search identified 2,157 studies of which 85 studies were eligible for inclusion. The studies (n = 31 children, n = 10 adults, n = 44 mixed age) involved 12,800 patients (30% complicated dengue). The overall frequency of PE was 33% [95%CI: 29 to 37%] and the rate of PE increased significantly with disease severity (P = 0.001) such that in complicated vs. uncomplicated dengue the frequencies were 48% and 17% (P < 0.001). When assessing all studies, PE occurred significantly more often in children compared to adults (43% vs. 13%, P = 0.002) and lung ultrasound more frequently detected PE than conventional chest X-ray (P = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: We found that 1/3 of dengue patients presented with PE and the frequency increased with severity and younger age. Importantly, lung ultrasound demonstrated the highest rate of detection. Our findings suggest that PE is a relatively common finding in dengue and that bedside imaging tools, such as lung ultrasound, potentially may enhance detection.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever: a growing global menace.

Dengue virus is an arthropod-borne virus, transmitted by Aedes aegypti among humans. In this review, we discussed the epidemiology of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) as well as the disease's natural history, cycles of transmission, clinical diagnosis, aetiology, prevention, therapy, and management. A systematic literature search was done by databases such as PubMed and Google Scholar using search terms, 'dengue fever', 'symptoms and causes of dengue fever', 'dengue virus transmission', and 'strategies to control dengue'. We reviewed relevant literature to identify hazards related to DHF and the most recent recommendations for its management and prevention. Clinical signs and symptoms of dengue infection range from mild dengue fever (DF) to potentially lethal conditions like DHF or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Acute-onset high fever, muscle and joint pain, myalgia, a rash on the skin, hemorrhagic episodes, and circulatory shock are among the most common symptoms. An early diagnosis is vital to lower mortality. As dengue virus infections are self-limiting, but in tropical and subtropical areas, dengue infection has become a public health concern. Hence, developing and executing long-term control policies that can reduce the global burden of DHF is a major issue for public health specialists everywhere.

Spatial model of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) risk: scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Creating a spatial model of dengue fever risk is challenging duet to many interrelated factors that could affect dengue. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these critical factors interact and to create reliable predictive models that can be used to mitigate and control the spread of dengue. METHODS: This scoping review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the important predictors, and spatial modelling tools capable of producing Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) risk maps. We conducted a methodical exploration utilizing diverse sources, i.e., PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, and Google Scholar. The following data were extracted from articles published between January 2011 to August 2022: country, region, administrative level, type of scale, spatial model, dengue data use, and categories of predictors. Applying the eligibility criteria, 45 out of 1,349 articles were selected. RESULTS: A variety of models and techniques were used to identify DHF risk areas with an arrangement of various multiple-criteria decision-making, statistical, and machine learning technique. We found that there was no pattern of predictor use associated with particular approaches. Instead, a wide range of predictors was used to create the DHF risk maps. These predictors may include climatology factors (e.g., temperature, rainfall, humidity), epidemiological factors (population, demographics, socio-economic, previous DHF cases), environmental factors (land-use, elevation), and relevant factors. CONCLUSIONS: DHF risk spatial models are useful tools for detecting high-risk locations and driving proactive public health initiatives. Relying on geographical and environmental elements, these models ignored the impact of human behaviour and social dynamics. To improve the prediction accuracy, there is a need for a more comprehensive approach to understand DHF transmission dynamics.

Predominance of Severe Plasma Leakage in Pediatric Patients With Severe Dengue in Puerto Rico.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated clinical and laboratory findings among patients with nonsevere or severe dengue in Puerto Rico to examine whether clinical manifestations vary by age. METHODS: During 2012-2014, we enrolled patients who arrived at the emergency department with fever or history of fever within 7 days of presentation. Serum samples were tested for dengue virus (DENV) by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Severe dengue was defined as severe plasma leakage or shock, severe bleeding, or organ involvement at presentation, during hospitalization, or follow-up. RESULTS: Of 1089 dengue patients identified, 281 (26%) were severe. Compared to those with nonsevere dengue, patients with severe dengue were more often aged 10-19 years (55% vs 40%, P < .001) and hospitalized (87% vs 30%, P < .001). Severe plasma leakage or shock was more common among children aged 0-9 (59%) or 10-19 years (86%) than adults (49%) (P < .01). Severe bleeding was less common among 10-19 year olds (24%) compared to 0-9 year olds (45%) and adults (52%; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Severe plasma leakage was the most common presentation among children, highlighting important differences from adults. Vaccination against dengue could help prevent severe dengue among children in Puerto Rico.

COVID-19 Antibodies as Predictor of Severe Dengue among Hospitalized Children with Dengue Illness in the Post-third-wave Period of COVID-19 Infection in India.

BACKGROUND: There were widespread unconfirmed reports about the increased severity of dengue post-second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India. It is known that a second dengue infection with a different strain in an individual can trigger antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). A similar phenomenon is hypothesized for severe COVID-19 infection since both dengue and COVID-19 are viral diseases with different and varying strains. However, much research is needed to confirm this hypothesis. In this context, we intended to assess the severity of dengue illness in relation to previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, possibly the role of COVID-19 antibodies as an early predictor of severe dengue illness. OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of COVID-19 antibodies for early identification of severe dengue illness among children in the post-third-wave period of COVID-19 infection in India. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All hospitalized children with dengue illness were categorized as severe (shock and/or hemorrhage and/or multi-organ dysfunction) and non-severe dengue illness (dengue with or without warning signs) as per WHO definition. COVID-19 antibody titers were estimated in both groups. Clinical features and seroprevalence of COVID-19 antibodies were compared in both groups. RESULT: A total of 31 children were studied (13 severe and 18 non-severe dengue illnesses). The most common symptoms prior to presenting to the hospital included fever (100% in both groups), vomiting (85% in severe and 63% in non-severe), abdominal pain (85% in severe and 50% in non-severe), poor feeding (54% in severe and 28% in non-severe), and skin rashes (15% in severe and none in non-severe). The mean duration from the onset of fever to the first hospital visit was 4.6 days in severe illness and 5.3 days in non-severe dengue illness. The mean duration of hospitalization was 9.7 days in severe dengue illness and 4.1 days in non-severe dengue illness. While 92.3% of all severe dengue had significantly higher COVID-19 antibody titers, it was found elevated only in 44.4% of the children with non-severe dengue illness (p-value 0.0059; Yates' corrected p-value 0.0179). CONCLUSION: Clinical symptoms prior to presenting to the hospital were fever, vomiting, abdominal pain, poor oral feeding, and skin rashes. While fever, vomiting, and abdominal pain were seen commonly in both severe and non-severe dengue illnesses, the presence of skin rash during febrile phase is associated with severe dengue illness only. Hospitalized children having severe dengue had increased seroprevalence of COVID-19 antibodies (92.3%) compared to children with non-severe dengue (44.4%). However, there is no corelation of the severity of dengue illness with absolute values of COVID-19 antibody levels. Therefore, the presence of COVID-19 antibodies (previous COVID-19 infection) can be a predictor of severe illness in children with dengue especially if associated with poor oral feeding and skin rashes. The limitation of the study is its lesser sample size to conclude any definitive statement; nevertheless, the study paves way for a similar cohort of a larger sample size to draw conclusions.

Assessing the serum chymase level as an early predictor of dengue severity.

We conducted a prospective, observational study to assess the serum chymase level, a mast cell derived protease, as a predictor of dengue severity. NS1-positive non-severe dengue patients of age ≥14 years with duration of fever ≤4 days were included in the study. At the time of admission, the serum sample was taken for chymase estimation. Patients were followed up to four days after they became afebrile to find out the final diagnosis. Total of 338 non-severe dengue patients were recruited (mean age: 29.15 years; male: 66%). On follow-up, 26 patients (7.8%) developed severe dengue. Only chymase level (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.787; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.309-2.440) and platelet count at admission (aOR: 0.981; 95% CI: 0.968-0.993) were able to predict the severity after adjustment for all variables. But, for prediction of severe dengue, the area under receiver's operating curve of chymase was 0.835 (95% CI: 0.765-0.905), which was significantly higher than that of the platelet count at admission (0.760, 95% CI: 0.650-0.870) (p < .001). Patients who developed severe dengue in due course of illness had significantly higher serum chymase level at admission as compared with the rest of the patients. Similar findings were noted across all age-groups. At an optimum cut-off value of 1.35 ng/ml, chymase had a positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 3.5 and a negative LR of 0.15, for predicting severe dengue. This study demonstrated the potential ability of serum chymase levels at admission, as a biomarker for prediction of severe dengue in due course of illness.

Genetic characterization of dengue virus serotype 2 isolated from dengue fever outbreaks in eastern Uttar Pradesh and western Bihar, India.

Dengue (DEN) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne endemic viral diseases in the tropical and subtropical countries. DEN outbreaks associated with multiple dengue virus (DV) serotypes have been regularly reported in different parts of India. This study was done during DEN outbreaks in 2015 to 2016 in UP and Bihar where DEN-2 was found as the only prevalent serotype. DV-2 was the only serotype amplified in serotype-specific reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction from sera of 210 (65.21%) out of 322 DV NS1 antigen-positive patients. Further genetic analysis based on full-length envelope (E) protein sequence derived from patient's sera as well as DV isolate showed the circulation of lineages I and III of DV-2 cosmopolitan genotype during 2015 and lineage II during 2016. Finally, the phylogenetic analysis using the E gene sequence revealed that these DV-2 strains have a close genetic relationship with the recently reported DV-2 genotypes from DEN outbreaks reported from different parts of north India. These results showed the circulation of cosmopolitan genotype of DV-2 in eastern Uttar Pradesh and western Bihar, India. The genetic database generated on circulating DV strains in this study will be useful as reference for disease surveillance and strengthening laboratory diagnosis protocols.

Plasma leakage in dengue: a systematic review of prospective observational studies.

Plasma leakage is a precursor to life-threatening complications of dengue, but this group is poorly defined and not often reported in literature. Patients with Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) as defined in the 1997 World Health Organization classification are often reported, and they all have plasma leakage, but some patients with plasma leakage do not meet the definition of DHF. The study aims to estimate the frequency of plasma leakage and DHF (as a surrogate of plasma leakage) in dengue and its variations based on virus serotype, geography, patient gender and pre-existing immunity to dengue. PUBMED, Scopus, EMBASE, CINAHL and Web of Science were searched for prospective observational studies reporting on plasma leakage or DHF. Quality of data was assessed using the NIH quality assessment tool for cohort studies. Forty-three studies that recruited 15,794 confirmed dengue patients were eligible. Cumulative frequency of plasma leakage was 36.8% (15 studies, 1642/4462, 95% CI 35.4-38.2%), but surprisingly the estimated cumulative frequency of DHF was higher (45.7%, 32 studies, 4758/10417, 95% CI 44.7-46.6%), indicating that current medical literature over-reports DHF or under-reports plasma leakage. Therefore, a reliable estimate for the proportion of dengue patients developing plasma leakage cannot be derived from existing medical literature even after applying rigorous inclusion criteria to select homogenous studies. Plasma leakage is an important marker of "at-risk" dengue patients and standardizing its definition, diagnosis and reporting should be a priority in research and global policy.

Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010-2014.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a severe manifestation of dengue viral infection that can cause severe bleeding, organ impairment, and even death, affects between 15,000 and 105,000 people each year in Thailand. While all Thai provinces experience at least one DHF case most years, the distribution of cases shifts regionally from year to year. Accurately forecasting where DHF outbreaks occur before the dengue season could help public health officials prioritize public health activities. We develop statistical models that use biologically plausible covariates, observed by April each year, to forecast the cumulative DHF incidence for the remainder of the year. We perform cross-validation during the training phase (2000-2009) to select the covariates for these models. A parsimonious model based on preseason incidence outperforms the 10-y median for 65% of province-level annual forecasts, reduces the mean absolute error by 19%, and successfully forecasts outbreaks (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.84) over the testing period (2010-2014). We find that functions of past incidence contribute most strongly to model performance, whereas the importance of environmental covariates varies regionally. This work illustrates that accurate forecasts of dengue risk are possible in a policy-relevant timeframe.

Profile of hospitalization and death records associated to dengue and severe dengue in Minas Gerais between 2000 and 2015 from the Brazilian Public Health System perspective.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Dengue is one of the most important arboviruses and public health problem associated with increasingly large outbreaks, especially in tropical countries such as Brazil. The state of Minas Gerais, in particular, has had high numbers of cases of this infection in recent years. METHODS: Our study evaluated the epidemiological impact of dengue fever in the state of Minas Gerais from the National Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde, SUS) perspective between 2000 to 2015 using the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN, notification cases) and Hospital Information System (SIH)/SUS (hospitalization registers) databases. RESULTS: The SUS database recorded 34,996 reports of dengue (International Classification of Diseases [ICD]: A90) as well as 1984 verified cases of severe dengue (ICD-A91). These hospitalizations for dengue and cases of severe dengue generally affected individuals aged 15-24 (17.74%) and 5-14 (20.86%) years, respectively. The epidemiological burden of dengue was substantial in Minas Gerais state, with the highest number of notifications nationally in 2013. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: From retrospective data associated with dengue records, our study sought to better highlight the locations with the largest number of dengue cases in the Minas Gerais state, and contribute to direct educational and surveillance actions of these regions applied to this infection.

Predictors of severe dengue amongst children as per the revised WHO classification.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: World Health Organization (WHO) revised its guidelines for classification and management of dengue in 2009. This revised system was found out to have good sensitivity and negative predictive value but poor specificity as well as positive predictive value. METHODS: This retrospective study was carried out in a tertiary care hospital of Delhi, India to assess factors predicting the occurrence of severe dengue in children as per the revised classification. A total of 647 suspected dengue cases were admitted in the hospital in the year 2015. Detailed clinical and epidemiological data of 170 patients who were confirmed as dengue either by NS1 antigen test or by serology (Ig M positive) were recorded and statistically analyzed. RESULTS: The number of laboratory-confirmed cases was 170 and included thirty (17.65%) dengue fever (DF), 106 (62.35%) dengue with warning signs (DWS) and 34 (20.0%) severe dengue (SD) patients. Regression analysis revealed that presence of vomiting, altered sensorium, shock, peri-orbital edema, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly, severe anemia, thrombocytopenia, elevated urea and creatinine, decreased total protein and globulin were significantly associated with occurrence of severe disease. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: The addition of clinical features (peri-orbital edema and splenomegaly); and laboratory findings (elevated urea and creatinine, decreased serum protein and globulin) might help improve the sensitivity and specificity of the revised WHO dengue classification in predicting severe dengue.

Severe Dengue Epidemic, Sri Lanka, 2017.

In 2017, a dengue epidemic of unexpected magnitude occurred in Sri Lanka. A total of 186,101 suspected cases and 440 dengue-related deaths occurred. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of this epidemic by comparing national surveillance data for 2017 with data from the preceding 5 years. In all Sri Lanka districts, dengue incidence in 2017 increased significantly over incidence during the previous 5 years. Older schoolchildren and young adults were more clinically symptomatic than those at extremes of age. Limited virologic surveillance showed the dominant circulating variant was dengue virus type 2 cosmopolitan genotype in the most affected district. One quarter of total annual cases were reported 5 weeks after the southwest monsoon started. Changes in vector abundance were not predictive of the increased incidence. Direct government expenditures on dengue control activities in 2017 were US $12.7 million. The lessons learned from this outbreak are useful for other tropical nations facing increasing dengue incidence.

Serotype-specific differences in the laboratory parameters among hospitalized children with dengue and genetic diversity of dengue viruses circulating in Tamil Nadu, India during 2017.

In 2017, Tamil Nadu, a southern state, had the second highest number of dengue cases from India. In the present study, the serotype-specific differences in the clinical manifestations and laboratory parameters among hospitalized children with dengue were investigated and molecular characterization of the circulating dengue virus (DENV) serotypes during 2017 in Tamil Nadu was performed. Eighty children with dengue-like symptoms consecutively admitted to a tertiary care hospital and positive for DENV NS1 antigen were investigated for DENV serotype utilizing a real-time reverse transcriptase based polymerase chain reaction assay. Complete envelope (E) gene sequencing of the DENV strains was performed. Seventy samples were positive for serotyping (25 DENV-1, 17 DENV-2, six DENV-3, and 22 DENV-4). DENV-4 infections were associated with elevated levels of liver enzymes; Alanine aminotransferase (P = .021) and aspartate aminotransferase (P = .001). However, none of the serotype was associated with any specific clinical features and severe dengue. Asian and American/African genotypes of DENV-1 were cocirculating. The circulating genotype was cosmopolitan for DENV-2 with multiple lineages, genotype III for DENV-3 and genotype I for DENV-4. Unique mutations were present in the 2017 DENV-4 isolates. The present study suggests the association of DENV-4 with elevated liver enzymes in children hospitalized for dengue. Further, the study reports the genetic diversity of DENV circulating in Tamil Nadu during 2017. The study calls for continuous monitoring of the circulating serotypes and genotypes at regional level in India which might result in a region wise database useful in predicting future outbreaks.