Fetal Mortality: United States, 2021.

Objectives-This report presents 2021 fetal mortality data by maternal race and Hispanic origin, age, tobacco use during pregnancy, and state of residence, as well as by plurality, sex, gestational age, birthweight, and selected causes of death. Trends in fetal mortality are also examined. Methods-Descriptive tabulations of data are presented and interpreted for all fetal deaths reported for the United States for 2021 with a stated or presumed period of gestation of 20 weeks or more. Cause-of-fetal-death data are restricted to residents of the 41 states and the District of Columbia, where cause of death was based on the 2003 fetal death report revision and less than 50% of deaths were attributed to Fetal death of unspecified cause (P95). Results-A total of 21,105 fetal deaths at 20 weeks of gestation or more were reported in the United States in 2021. The 2021 U.S. fetal mortality rate was 5.73 fetal deaths at 20 weeks of gestation or more per 1,000 live births and fetal deaths, which was essentially unchanged from the rate of 5.74 in 2020. The fetal mortality rate in 2021 for deaths occurring at 20-27 weeks of gestation was 2.95, essentially unchanged from 2020 (2.97). For deaths occurring at 28 weeks of gestation or more, the rate in 2021 (2.80) was not significantly different from 2020 (2.78). In 2021, the fetal mortality rate ranged from 3.94 for non-Hispanic, single-race Asian women to 9.89 for non-Hispanic, single-race Black women. Fetal mortality rates were highest for females under age 15 and aged 40 and over, for women who smoked during pregnancy, and for women with multiple gestation pregnancies. Five selected causes accounted for 89.9% of fetal deaths in the 41-state and District of Columbia reporting area.

The Child Opportunity Index and asthma morbidity among children younger than 5 years old in Washington, DC.

BACKGROUND: Place-based social determinants of health are associated with pediatric asthma morbidity. However, there is little evidence on how social determinants of health correlate to the disproportionately high rates of asthma morbidity experienced by children <5 years old. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate census tract associations between the Child Opportunity Index ±COI) and at-risk rates (ARRs) for pediatric asthma-related emergency department (ED) encounters and hospitalizations in Washington, DC. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of children <5 years old with physician-diagnosed asthma included in the DC Asthma Registry between January 2018 and December 2019. Census tract COI score (1-100) and its 3 domains (social/economic, health/environmental, and educational) were the exposures (source: www.diversitydatakids.org). ED and hospitalization ARRs (outcomes) were created by dividing counts of ED encounters and hospitalizations by populations with asthma for each census tract and adjusted for population-level demographic (age, sex, insurance), clinical (asthma severity), and community (violent crime and limited English proficiency) covariates. RESULTS: Within a study population of 3806 children with a mean age of 2.4 ± 1.4 years, 2132 (56%) had 5852 ED encounters, and 821 (22%) had 1418 hospitalizations. Greater census tract overall COI, social/economic COI, and educational COI were associated with fewer ED ARRs. There were no associations between the health/environmental COI and ED ARRs or between the COI and hospitalization ARRs. CONCLUSION: Improving community-level social, economic, and educational opportunity within specific census tracts may reduce ED ARRs in this population.

Modifications to Sexual Behaviors Associated With Mpox (Monkeypox) Virus Transmission Among Persons Presenting for mpox Vaccination, Washington, DC, August-October, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Over 30,000 mpox cases were reported during the 2022 mpox outbreak with many cases occurring among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM). Decreases in U.S. mpox cases were likely accelerated by a combination of vaccination and modifications to sexual behaviors associated with mpox virus transmission. We assessed reports of sexual behavior change among participants receiving mpox vaccination in Washington, DC. METHODS: During August to October 2022, 711 adults aged ≥18 years receiving mpox vaccination at two public health clinics in Washington, DC completed a self-administered questionnaire that asked whether sexual behaviors changed since learning about mpox. We calculated the frequency and percentages of participants reporting an increase, decrease, or no change in 4 of these behaviors by demographic, clinical, and behavioral characteristics with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Overall, between 46% and 61% of participants reported a decrease in sexual behaviors associated with mpox virus transmission, 39% to 54% reported no change in these behaviors, and <1% reported an increase. Approximately 61% reported decreases in one-time sexual encounters (95% confidence interval [CI], 56.8%-64.7%), 54.3% reduced numbers of sex partners (95% CI, 50.4%-58.0%), 53.4% decreased sex via a dating app or sex venue (95% CI, 49.7%-58.0%), and 45.6% reported less group sex (95% CI, 40.4%-50.9%). Reported decreases in these behaviors were higher for MSM than women; in non-Hispanic Black than non-Hispanic White participants; and in participants with human immunodeficiency virus than participants without human immunodeficiency virus. CONCLUSIONS: Most participants receiving mpox vaccination reported decreasing sexual behaviors associated with mpox virus transmission, including groups disproportionately affected by the outbreak.

Patient Perspectives on Telehealth for HIV and Mental Health Care at a Pediatric and Adolescent HIV Clinic in Washington, DC.

Despite the scale-up of telehealth for children and youth living with HIV during the COVID-19 pandemic, their experience and interest in continued telehealth use in the future is unknown. We conducted a quality improvement project to identify areas for improvement of telehealth delivery to children and youth living with HIV and evaluate youth's experiences when using telehealth for mental health services. Children and youth living with HIV (up to 24 years) seen at a specialty HIV program during 2020-2021 were surveyed regarding technology access, telehealth knowledge, barriers to telehealth use and interest in future telehealth use for HIV care. Youth (12-<24 years) who used telehealth for mental health services were surveyed regarding their experiences. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Of the 170 patients in care, we surveyed 103 children and youth living with HIV (median age 17.6 years, 88.3% Black, 52.4% female, 77.7% perinatally infected), of whom 69.9% had prior telehealth use for their clinical visit. Most patients had access to a device with internet (99%) and were interested in future telehealth use for HIV care (87.4%). Reasons for not wanting to use telehealth included privacy concerns, distrust, discomfort with telehealth, preferring in-person visits, technology access issues and needing translation services. Most youth (81%) surveyed regarding telehealth for mental health services were satisfied and very likely to recommend it to others. Despite some reported barriers to telehealth, there is a high desirability for continued telehealth use among children and youth receiving HIV care.

Predictors of PrEP Retention and Attrition in an Urban Publicly Funded Safety-net Specialty Clinic.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective tool for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention. The purpose of this study is to identify correlates of PrEP retention using patient data from an urban, publicly funded safety-net clinic in Washington, DC. Cox proportional hazards regression, logistical regression, and survival curves were used to assess the association of age, gender, race/ethnicity, insurance, number of partners, and sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis at PrEP initiation with time on PrEP. From August 2016-December 2020, 1,126 people were prescribed PrEP - patients were mostly Black (44.8%) or Latinx (30.4%) and identified as cisgender men (84.6%). Half had no insurance (49.1%), with the remaining patients reporting private (28.9%) or public (21.5%) insurance. Age at PrEP prescription ranged from 15 to 66 with 80% being 20 to 39 years. For the 87.7% (n = 987) of patients who discontinued PrEP, mean PrEP time was 158 days and median was 28 days. The highest rates of discontinuation were observed within the first month with 44.3% discontinuing by day 30, 52.3% by 3 months, and 73.2% by 1 year. Cisgender women, transgender persons, and those younger than 30 years were more likely to discontinue PrEP. Latinx and patients with less than 3 male partners in the last 90 days were less likely to discontinue PrEP. We demonstrated a high level of PrEP uptake among populations disproportionally affected by HIV. Future analyses are needed to examine ways of reducing barriers to PrEP initiation and improving PrEP adherence.

Mixed Methods Analysis of Telehealth Experience, Satisfaction, and Quality of Care During the COVID Pandemic Among Persons with HIV in Washington, DC.

The purpose of this study is to describe telehealth experiences and quality of HIV care provided to an urban population of people with HIV (PWH) in Washington, DC. We used self-reported survey data from a cohort of PWH in the DC Cohort longitudinal study linked to medical records (October 26, 2020-December 31, 2021). Analyses followed a mixed-methods approach, including prevalence estimates and multivariable logistic regression of telehealth use by demographic and HIV characteristics. We measured primary motivation, modes of engagement, and telehealth satisfaction. Qualitative responses to open-ended questions were coded using collaborative coding. A framework developed by the National Quality Forum (NQF) was applied to the results. Among 978 participants, 69% reported using telehealth for HIV care during the pandemic. High school graduates were less likely to use telehealth compared to those with college education (aOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.48, 0.98). PWH with > 1 co-morbid condition were more likely to use telehealth compared to those without (aOR 1.42, 95% CI 1.02, 1.95). The majority reported satisfaction with telehealth (81%). Qualitative analysis of telehealth satisfaction found that most responses were related to access to care and technology, effectiveness, and patient experience. PWH using telehealth during the pandemic were satisfied with their experience though use differed demographically. Telehealth was used effectively to overcome barriers to care engagement, including transportation, costs, and time. As we transition away from the emergency pandemic responses, it will be important to determine how this technology can be used in the future in an equitable manner to further strengthen HIV care engagement.

Association Between Park Use and Moderate-to-Vigorous Activity During COVID-19 Years among a Cohort of Low-Income Youth.

Neighborhood parks are important venues to support moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) activity. There has been a noticeable increase promoting physical activity among youth in neighborhood parks. This paper aims to assess the association between park use and MVPA among low-income youth in a large urban area. We recruited a cohort of 434 youth participants during the COVID pandemic years (2020-2022) from low-income households in Washington, D.C. We collected multiple data components: accelerometry, survey, and electronic health record data. We explored the bivariate relationship between the accelerometer-measured daily MVPA time outcome and survey-based park use measures. A mixed-effect model was fitted to adjust the effect estimate for participant-level and time-varying confounders. The overall average daily MVPA time is 16.0 min (SD = 12.7). The unadjusted bivariate relation between daily MVPA time and frequency of park visit is 1.3 min of daily MVPA time per one day with park visits (p < 0.0001). The model-adjusted estimate is 0.7 daily MVPA minutes for 1 day with park visit (p = 0.04). The duration of a typical park visit is not a significant predictor to daily MVPA time with or without adjustments. The initial COVID outbreak in 2020 resulted in a significant decline in daily MVPA time (- 4.7 min for 2020 versus 2022, p < 0.0001). Park visit frequency is a significant predictor to low-income youth's daily MVPA time with considerable absolute effect sizes compared with other barriers and facilitators. Promoting more frequent park use may be a useful means to improve low-income youth's MVPA outcome.

Risk of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Receipt of a Breathing Test in 26 States and the District of Columbia, 2017-2018.

We estimated the prevalence of respiratory symptoms, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk level, and receipt of a breathing test among adults without reported COPD in 26 states and the District of Columbia by using 2017-2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data. Among adults without reported COPD, the 3 respiratory symptoms indicating COPD (chronic cough, phlegm or mucus production, shortness of breath) were common (each >10%). About 15.0% were at higher COPD risk (based on the number of symptoms, age, and smoking status); 41.4% of adults at higher risk reported receipt of a breathing test. Patient-provider recognition and communication of risk symptoms, appropriate screening, and follow-up are important for early diagnosis and treatment.

HIV Risk Perception, Willingness to Use PrEP, and PrEP Uptake Among Young Men who have Sex with Men in Washington, DC.

Low HIV risk perception is a barrier to PrEP uptake, but few studies have examined risk perception and PrEP uptake among young men who have sex with men (YMSM). We performed a secondary analysis of data collected in 2016 from YMSM ages 16-25 in the Washington, DC metropolitan area who participated in a cross-sectional online survey that aimed to identify strategies for engaging YMSM in PrEP services. Of 188 participants, 115 (61%) were considered eligible for PrEP. Among PrEP-eligible participants who had never used PrEP, 53%, 71%, and 100% with low, moderate, and high risk perception, respectively, were willing to use PrEP (Fisher's exact test p = 0.01). Odds of PrEP willingness were greater among those with moderate/high versus low risk perception (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 5.62, 95% CI = 1.73-18.34). HIV risk perception was not significantly associated with self-reported PrEP use. These findings suggest the importance of risk perception as a correlate of willingness to use PrEP, which is a key step in existing frameworks of PrEP uptake.

An investigation of the seasonal relationships between meteorological factors, water quality, and sporadic cases of Legionnaires' disease in Washington, DC.

Since the discovery of Legionnaires' disease (LD), limited progress has been made in understanding the epidemiology of sporadic cases of LD. Outbreaks have confirmed that air conditioning and potable water systems can be sources of community-acquired LD. However, studying the association between water quality and LD incidence has been challenging due to the heterogeneity of water systems across large geographic areas. Furthermore, although seasonal trends in incidence have been linked to increased rainfall and temperatures, the large geographic units have posed similar difficulties. To address this issue, a retrospective ecological study was conducted in Washington, DC, from 2001 to 2019. The study identified aseasonal pattern of LD incidence, with the majority of cases occurring between June and December, peaking in August, October, and November. Increased temperature was found to be associated with LD incidence. In surface water, higher concentrations of manganese, iron, and strontium were positively associated with LD, while aluminum and orthophosphate showed a negative association. Intreatment plant water, higher concentrations of total organic carbon, aluminum, barium, and chlorine were positively associated with LD, while strontium, zinc, and orthophosphate showed a negative association. The results for orthophosphates and turbidity were inconclusive, indicating the need for further research.

HIV care continuum outcomes among recently diagnosed people with HIV (PWH) in Washington, DC.

The Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative aims to decrease new HIV infections and promote test-and-treat strategies. Our aims were to establish a baseline of HIV outcomes among newly diagnosed PWH in Washington, DC (DC), a 'hotspot' for the HIV epidemic. We also examined sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with retention in care (RIC), antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and viral suppression (VS) among newly diagnosed PWH in the DC Cohort from 2011-2016. Among 455 newly diagnosed participants, 92% were RIC at 12 months, ART was initiated in 65% at 3 months and 91% at 12 months, VS in at least 17% at 3 months and 82% at 12 months and 55% of those with VS at 12 months had sustained VS for an additional 12 months. AIDS diagnosis was associated with RIC (aOR 2.99; 1.13-2.28), ART initiation by 3 months (aOR 2.58; 1.61-4.12) and VS by 12 months (aOR4.87; 1.69-14.03). This analysis contributes to our understanding of the HIV treatment dynamics of persons with recently diagnosed HIV infection in a city with a severe HIV epidemic.

Psychosocial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic from a cross-sectional Survey of people living with HIV in Washington, DC.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has not only taken a staggering toll in terms of cases and lives lost, but also in its psychosocial effects. We assessed the psychosocial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in a large cohort of people with HIV (PWH) in Washington DC and evaluated the association of various demographic and clinical characteristics with psychosocial impacts. METHODS: From October 2020 to December 2021, DC Cohort participants were invited to complete a survey capturing psychosocial outcomes influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Some demographic variables were also collected in the survey, and survey results were matched to additional demographic data and laboratory data from the DC Cohort database. Data analyses included descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate the association between demographic and clinical characteristics and psychosocial impacts, assessed individually and in overarching categories (financial/employment, mental health, decreased social connection, and substance use). RESULTS: Of 891 participants, the median age was 46 years old, 65% were male, and 76% were of non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity. The most commonly reported psychosocial impact categories were mental health (78% of sample) and financial/employment (56% of sample). In our sample, older age was protective against all adverse psychosocial impacts. Additionally, those who were more educated reported fewer financial impacts but more mental health impacts, decreased social connection, and increased substance use. Males reported increased substance use compared with females. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has had substantial psychosocial impacts on PWH, and resiliency may have helped shield older adults from some of these effects. As the pandemic continues, measures to aid groups vulnerable to these psychosocial impacts are critical to help ensure continued success towards healthy living with HIV.

Site assessment survey to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV clinic site services and strategies for mitigation in Washington, DC.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has created substantial interruptions in healthcare presenting challenges for people with chronic illnesses to access care and treatment services. We aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic on HIV care delivery by characterizing the pandemic-related impact on HIV clinic-level services and the mitigation strategies that were developed to address them. METHODS: The data comes from a site assessment survey conducted in the DC Cohort, an observational clinical cohort of PWH receiving care at 14 HIV outpatient clinics in Washington, D.C. Frequency counts and prevalence estimates of clinic-level survey responses about the impact of care delivery, COVID-19 testing, and vaccinations and mitigation strategies are presented. RESULTS: Clinics reported an increase in temporary clinic closures (n = 2), reduction in clinic hours (n = 5), telehealth utilization (n = 10), adoption of multi-month dispensation of antiretroviral (ARV) medication (n = 11) and alternative drug delivery via postal/courier service, home/community delivery or pick-up (n = 11). Clinics utilized strategies for PWH who were lost to follow-up during the pandemic including offering care to persons with any income level and insurance status (n = 9), utilizing e-prescribing for auto refills even if the patient missed visits (n = 8), and utilization of the regional health information exchange to check for hospitalizations of PWH lost to follow-up (n = 8). Most social services offered before the pandemic remained available during the pandemic; however, some support services were modified. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate the extent of pandemic-era disruptions and the use of clinic-level mitigation strategies among urban HIV clinics. These results may help prepare for future pandemic or public health emergencies that disrupt healthcare delivery and access.

The Association Between Receiving the Flu and COVID-19 Vaccines and Related Factors, Data from the StopFlu Campaign in Eight States and the District of Columbia, 2022.

Given the evolving nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and the importance of vaccines, it is imperative to understand the relationships between receiving the COVID-19 vaccine and other vaccines, such as the flu vaccine. Data were obtained from a survey as part of an evaluation of the StopFlu Kaiser Permanente media campaign, promoting the flu and COVID-19 vaccines in communities of color across eight states and the District of Columbia. The outcome considered was receiving the COVID-19 vaccine. The exposure considered was receiving the flu vaccine. Covariates included demographic factors, and sources of trusted health information. Overall, 4,185 participants had complete data and were included the analysis. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between receiving the flu vaccine and COVID-19 vaccine. Among participants, 77.8% reported receiving the COVID-19 vaccine and 55.4% received the flu vaccine. After adjusting for demographics and sources of trusted health information, participants reporting receiving the flu vaccine had 5.18 times the odds of also receiving the COVID-19 vaccine [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 5.18 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 4.24-6.32]. Trusting advice from a doctor and healthcare organization also had increased odds of receiving the COVID-19 vaccine. (AOR: 1.84 95%CI: 1.45-2.33, AOR: 2.08 95%CI: 1.64-2.63). This study demonstrates that promotion of one vaccine may influence uptake of other vaccines, which is important given the highly politicized nature of the COVID-19 vaccine. Further research could provide more insight into how promotion of a vaccine could impact behavior with regards to another.

Geographic Distribution of Congenital Heart Disease: A Single Surgical Center Experience.

OBJECTIVE: To determine presence of spatial clustering or dispersion of pre and postnatally detected hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) and d-transposition of the great arteries (TGA) cases. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective study examined all patients with a prenatal or postnatal diagnosis of HLHS or TGA who had an initial visit or hospitalization at our tertiary care center over a 5-year period from 2012 to 2016 (n = 105). Using geographic information systems software, the nearest neighbor ratio (NNR) tool was used to determine whether statistically significant clustering or dispersion occurred. RESULTS: Geographic clustering was observed among prenatally diagnosed pooled cases of HLHS and TGA and all total cases (NNR = 0.73 and 0.66, respectively), but not postnatally detected cases (NNR = 1.08). Notably, there was significant dispersion of postnatally detected TGA cases (NNR = 1.22) There was no pattern for prenatally detected TGA or HLHS when analyzed individually. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial distribution of HLHS and TGA is not random; these conditions occur in geographic clusters. Clustering of all patients in the study population and dispersion of postnatal diagnosis of TGA represent opportunities for improved delivery of fetal cardiac care.

Risk of Severe COVID-19 Disease and the Pandemic's Impact on Service Utilization Among a Longitudinal Cohort of Persons with HIV-Washington, DC.

People with HIV (PWH) have a high burden of medical comorbidities, potentially putting them at increased risk for severe COVID-19. Additionally, during the COVID-19 pandemic, HIV care delivery has been restructured and the impact on HIV outcomes is unknown. The objectives of this study were first, to examine the risk of severe COVID-19 among PWH, using a definition incorporating clinical risk factors, and second, to examine the pandemic's impact on HIV care. We used data from the DC Cohort, a large cohort of people receiving HIV care in Washington, DC. We found that a high proportion of participants across all age groups qualified as increased (58%) or high risk (34%) for severe COVID-19. Between 2019 and 2020, encounters increased (17.7%, increasing to 23.5% of active DC Cohort participants had an encounter) while laboratory utilization decreased (14.4%, decreasing to 11.4% of active DC Cohort participants had an HIV RNA test performed). Implications of our work include the importance of protecting vulnerable people with HIV from acquiring COVID-19 and potentially manifesting severe complications through strategies including vaccination. Additionally, acknowledging that HIV service delivery will likely be changed long-term by the pandemic, adaptation is required to ensure continued progress towards 90-90-90 goals.

Creation and validation of a citywide pediatric asthma registry for the District of Columbia.

OBJECTIVE: To create and validate a citywide pediatric Asthma Registry to improve the care and outcomes of children and adolescents in Washington, DC through data-driven quality improvement (QI). METHODS: All available electronic health record data from inpatient and outpatient domains of Children's National Hospital were aggregated from an existing enterprise data warehouse. Inclusion criteria included asthma relevant ICD-10 codes over the prior 24 months. Available Asthma Registry measures include patient demographics, ambulatory visits, hospital admissions, persistent asthma diagnoses, and prescription of controller medications. Data capture was validated using US Census data and current asthma prevalence estimate of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). RESULTS: The registry identified 15,991 DC children and adolescents with asthma aged 0-17 years, inclusive, at the end of 2020. This was 14.2% higher than the estimate of 14,001 children derived from BRFSS. Characteristics of those in the registry included: mean age of 9.5 (1.4) years, 57.9% male, 72.3% Black, and 66.7% publicly insured. Over the prior 24 months, 30.3% had ≥1 emergency department visit, and 10.5% had ≥1 hospital admission. Controller medications were prescribed for 59.6% of children with persistent asthma. Rates varied by sampled primary care practice sites. CONCLUSIONS: A population-level pediatric asthma registry captures more children and adolescents with asthma in DC then a BRFSS-derived estimate, and provides city-wide measures of asthma-related utilization. The registry allows for stratification by primary care practice locations and asthma characteristics, supporting the design, implementation, and evaluation of QI projects at the practice, health system, and population levels.Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at publisher's website.

Development of Severe COVID-19 Adaptive Risk Predictor (SCARP), a Calculator to Predict Severe Disease or Death in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Predicting the clinical trajectory of individual patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging but necessary to inform clinical care. The majority of COVID-19 prognostic tools use only data present upon admission and do not incorporate changes occurring after admission. OBJECTIVE: To develop the Severe COVID-19 Adaptive Risk Predictor (SCARP) (https://rsconnect.biostat.jhsph.edu/covid_trajectory/), a novel tool that can provide dynamic risk predictions for progression from moderate disease to severe illness or death in patients with COVID-19 at any time within the first 14 days of their hospitalization. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTINGS: Five hospitals in Maryland and Washington, D.C. PATIENTS: Patients who were hospitalized between 5 March and 4 December 2020 with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) confirmed by nucleic acid test and symptomatic disease. MEASUREMENTS: A clinical registry for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 was the primary data source; data included demographic characteristics, admission source, comorbid conditions, time-varying vital signs, laboratory measurements, and clinical severity. Random forest for survival, longitudinal, and multivariate (RF-SLAM) data analysis was applied to predict the 1-day and 7-day risks for progression to severe disease or death for any given day during the first 14 days of hospitalization. RESULTS: Among 3163 patients admitted with moderate COVID-19, 228 (7%) became severely ill or died in the next 24 hours; an additional 355 (11%) became severely ill or died in the next 7 days. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 1-day risk predictions for progression to severe disease or death was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.90) and 0.89 (CI, 0.87 to 0.91) during the first and second weeks of hospitalization, respectively. The AUC for 7-day risk predictions for progression to severe disease or death was 0.83 (CI, 0.83 to 0.84) and 0.87 (CI, 0.86 to 0.89) during the first and second weeks of hospitalization, respectively. LIMITATION: The SCARP tool was developed by using data from a single health system. CONCLUSION: Using the predictive power of RF-SLAM and longitudinal data from more than 3000 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, an interactive tool was developed that rapidly and accurately provides the probability of an individual patient's progression to severe illness or death on the basis of readily available clinical information. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Hopkins inHealth and COVID-19 Administrative Supplement for the HHS Region 3 Treatment Center from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response.

Characteristics and Geographic Variation in Sudden Unexpected Infant Deaths in the District of Columbia.

ABSTRACT: Sleep-related infant death is a major cause of infant mortality in the United States. In the District of Columbia, infant mortality varies widely among regions (2 to 14 per 1000 live births). The study objectives were to analyze the patient characteristics and related variables to sudden unexpected infant deaths at 2 pediatric emergency department (ED) sites and the geographic patterns of infant deaths and their relationship to social vulnerability. This retrospective cohort study examined infants under 1 year of age presenting with cardiac arrest at 2 ED sites from 2010 to 2020. Analysis showed 81 deaths with a median population age of 75 days (SD, 46 days). The most frequent demographics of deceased patients were African American Black (89%) with Medicaid insurance (63%), born at term gestation (66%), and without comorbidity (60%). The cause of death was most frequently undetermined (32%) and asphyxia (31%). Most cases involved bed-sharing (63%), despite more than half of those cases having a known safe sleep surface available. Infant death location showed that most deaths occurred in areas with the highest social vulnerability index, including near a community ED location. Understanding the etiologies of this geographic variability may enhance sleep-related infant death prevention strategies.

Geographic Core Areas of Coinfections in Washington, District of Columbia: Recommendations for Planning Prevention-Intervention to Mitigate Human Immunodeficiency Virus Burden.

BACKGROUND: Research suggests that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) may be at increased risk of transmitting HIV to someone else through unprotected sex. The primary aim of the analysis is to identify the high-risk geographic areas of transmission of coinfections and factors that may be associated with poor outcomes of viral suppression within these higher-risk geographic areas, thus important in transmission prevention. METHODS: We used surveillance data reported by all providers and laboratories in the District of Columbia (DC). Applied discrete Poisson scan model in SaTScan to identify the geographic areas. The relative risk (RR) for the scan statistic was calculated based on events inside the cluster, and P values evaluated statistical significance. We used multinomial logistical regression to explore care and demographical characteristics associated with being virally unsuppressed within and outside the geographic areas. RESULTS: The coinfected areas (RR, >1; P < .001) were located in the tracts of central and southern DC. Black population (RR, 3.154 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.736-5.729]), age 13-19 years (RR, 4.598 [95% CI, 3.176-6.657]), repeat STIs (RR, 1.387 [95% CI, 1.096-1.754]), and not retained in care (RR, 2.546 [95% CI, 1.997-3.245]) were found to be at higher risk of being virally unsuppressed within the coinfected clusters. Those with unknown linkages were found to be at higher risk of being virally unsuppressed outside the coinfected clusters (RR, 5.162 [95% CI, 2.289-11.640]). CONCLUSIONS: This is DC's first effort to identify the geographic core areas of coinfections and factors that may be sustaining them. These results will be used by the health department to plan for prevention-intervention strategies. This model be replicated by any local jurisdiction similar.