Emerging Pandemic Diseases: How We Got to COVID-19.

Infectious diseases prevalent in humans and animals are caused by pathogens that once emerged from other animal hosts. In addition to these established infections, new infectious diseases periodically emerge. In extreme cases they may cause pandemics such as COVID-19; in other cases, dead-end infections or smaller epidemics result. Established diseases may also re-emerge, for example by extending geographically or by becoming more transmissible or more pathogenic. Disease emergence reflects dynamic balances and imbalances, within complex globally distributed ecosystems comprising humans, animals, pathogens, and the environment. Understanding these variables is a necessary step in controlling future devastating disease emergences.

Why and How Vaccines Work.

Vaccines save millions of lives from infectious diseases caused by viruses and bacteria. As the world awaits safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, we celebrate the progresses made and highlight challenges ahead in vaccines and the science behind them.

Preventing Outbreaks through Interactive, Experiential Real-Life Simulations.

Operation Outbreak (OO) is a Bluetooth-based simulation platform that teaches students how pathogens spread and the impact of interventions, thereby facilitating the safe reopening of schools. OO also generates data to inform epidemiological models and prevent future outbreaks. Before SARS-CoV-2 was reported, we repeatedly simulated a virus with similar features, correctly predicting many human behaviors later observed during the pandemic.

Pandemic Preparedness: Developing Vaccines and Therapeutic Antibodies For COVID-19.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic that causes COVID-19 respiratory syndrome has caused global public health and economic crises, necessitating rapid development of vaccines and therapeutic countermeasures. The world-wide response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented with government, academic, and private partnerships working together to rapidly develop vaccine and antibody countermeasures. Many of the technologies being used are derived from prior government-academic partnerships for response to other emerging infections.

Generation of a Broadly Useful Model for COVID-19 Pathogenesis, Vaccination, and Treatment.

COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, is a virulent pneumonia, with >4,000,000 confirmed cases worldwide and >290,000 deaths as of May 15, 2020. It is critical that vaccines and therapeutics be developed very rapidly. Mice, the ideal animal for assessing such interventions, are resistant to SARS-CoV-2. Here, we overcome this difficulty by exogenous delivery of human ACE2 with a replication-deficient adenovirus (Ad5-hACE2). Ad5-hACE2-sensitized mice developed pneumonia characterized by weight loss, severe pulmonary pathology, and high-titer virus replication in lungs. Type I interferon, T cells, and, most importantly, signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 (STAT1) are critical for virus clearance and disease resolution in these mice. Ad5-hACE2-transduced mice enabled rapid assessments of a vaccine candidate, of human convalescent plasma, and of two antiviral therapies (poly I:C and remdesivir). In summary, we describe a murine model of broad and immediate utility to investigate COVID-19 pathogenesis and to evaluate new therapies and vaccines.

Development of an Inactivated Vaccine Candidate, BBIBP-CorV, with Potent Protection against SARS-CoV-2.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) threatens global public health. The development of a vaccine is urgently needed for the prevention and control of COVID-19. Here, we report the pilot-scale production of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate (BBIBP-CorV) that induces high levels of neutralizing antibodies titers in mice, rats, guinea pigs, rabbits, and nonhuman primates (cynomolgus monkeys and rhesus macaques) to provide protection against SARS-CoV-2. Two-dose immunizations using 2 µg/dose of BBIBP-CorV provided highly efficient protection against SARS-CoV-2 intratracheal challenge in rhesus macaques, without detectable antibody-dependent enhancement of infection. In addition, BBIBP-CorV exhibits efficient productivity and good genetic stability for vaccine manufacture. These results support the further evaluation of BBIBP-CorV in a clinical trial.

A Universal Design of Betacoronavirus Vaccines against COVID-19, MERS, and SARS.

Vaccines are urgently needed to control the ongoing pandemic COVID-19 and previously emerging MERS/SARS caused by coronavirus (CoV) infections. The CoV spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) is an attractive vaccine target but is undermined by limited immunogenicity. We describe a dimeric form of MERS-CoV RBD that overcomes this limitation. The RBD-dimer significantly increased neutralizing antibody (NAb) titers compared to conventional monomeric form and protected mice against MERS-CoV infection. Crystal structure showed RBD-dimer fully exposed dual receptor-binding motifs, the major target for NAbs. Structure-guided design further yielded a stable version of RBD-dimer as a tandem repeat single-chain (RBD-sc-dimer) which retained the vaccine potency. We generalized this strategy to design vaccines against COVID-19 and SARS, achieving 10- to 100-fold enhancement of NAb titers. RBD-sc-dimers in pilot scale production yielded high yields, supporting their scalability for further clinical development. The framework of immunogen design can be universally applied to other beta-CoV vaccines to counter emerging threats.

Biomedical Research Goes Viral: Dangers and Opportunities.

Researchers around the globe have been mounting, accelerating, and redeploying efforts across disciplines and organizations to tackle the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. However, humankind continues to be afflicted by numerous other devastating diseases in increasing numbers. Here, we outline considerations and opportunities toward striking a good balance between maintaining and redefining research priorities.

Lessons for COVID-19 Immunity from Other Coronavirus Infections.

A key goal to controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is developing an effective vaccine. Development of a vaccine requires knowledge of what constitutes a protective immune response and also features that might be pathogenic. Protective and pathogenic aspects of the response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are not well understood, partly because the virus has infected humans for only 6 months. However, insight into coronavirus immunity can be informed by previous studies of immune responses to non-human coronaviruses, common cold coronaviruses, and SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Here, we review the literature describing these responses and discuss their relevance to the SARS-CoV-2 immune response.

Analysis of a SARS-CoV-2-Infected Individual Reveals Development of Potent Neutralizing Antibodies with Limited Somatic Mutation.

Antibody responses develop following SARS-CoV-2 infection, but little is known about their epitope specificities, clonality, binding affinities, epitopes, and neutralizing activity. We isolated B cells specific for the SARS-CoV-2 envelope glycoprotein spike (S) from a COVID-19-infected subject 21 days after the onset of clinical disease. 45 S-specific monoclonal antibodies were generated. They had undergone minimal somatic mutation with limited clonal expansion, and three bound the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Two antibodies neutralized SARS-CoV-2. The most potent antibody bound the RBD and prevented binding to the ACE2 receptor, while the other bound outside the RBD. Thus, most anti-S antibodies that were generated in this patient during the first weeks of COVID-19 infection were non-neutralizing and target epitopes outside the RBD. Antibodies that disrupt the SARS-CoV-2 S-ACE2 interaction can potently neutralize the virus without undergoing extensive maturation. Such antibodies have potential preventive and/or therapeutic potential and can serve as templates for vaccine design.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Status Report.

SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19, first emerged in late 2019 in China. It has since infected more than 870,000 individuals and caused more than 43,000 deaths globally. Here, we discuss therapeutic and prophylactic interventions for SARS-CoV-2 with a focus on vaccine development and its challenges. Vaccines are being rapidly developed but will likely come too late to affect the first wave of a potential pandemic. Nevertheless, critical lessons can be learned for the development of vaccines against rapidly emerging viruses. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will be essential to reducing morbidity and mortality if the virus establishes itself in the population.

A Single Immunization with Nucleoside-Modified mRNA Vaccines Elicits Strong Cellular and Humoral Immune Responses against SARS-CoV-2 in Mice.

SARS-CoV-2 infection has emerged as a serious global pandemic. Because of the high transmissibility of the virus and the high rate of morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19, developing effective and safe vaccines is a top research priority. Here, we provide a detailed evaluation of the immunogenicity of lipid nanoparticle-encapsulated, nucleoside-modified mRNA (mRNA-LNP) vaccines encoding the full-length SARS-CoV-2 spike protein or the spike receptor binding domain in mice. We demonstrate that a single dose of these vaccines induces strong type 1 CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses, as well as long-lived plasma and memory B cell responses. Additionally, we detect robust and sustained neutralizing antibody responses and the antibodies elicited by nucleoside-modified mRNA vaccines do not show antibody-dependent enhancement of infection in vitro. Our findings suggest that the nucleoside-modified mRNA-LNP vaccine platform can induce robust immune responses and is a promising candidate to combat COVID-19.

Single-shot Ad26 vaccine protects against SARS-CoV-2 in rhesus macaques.

A safe and effective vaccine for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may be required to end the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic1-8. For global deployment and pandemic control, a vaccine that requires only a single immunization would be optimal. Here we show the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of a single dose of adenovirus serotype 26 (Ad26) vector-based vaccines expressing the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein in non-human primates. Fifty-two rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) were immunized with Ad26 vectors that encoded S variants or sham control, and then challenged with SARS-CoV-2 by the intranasal and intratracheal routes9,10. The optimal Ad26 vaccine induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and provided complete or near-complete protection in bronchoalveolar lavage and nasal swabs after SARS-CoV-2 challenge. Titres of vaccine-elicited neutralizing antibodies correlated with protective efficacy, suggesting an immune correlate of protection. These data demonstrate robust single-shot vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 in non-human primates. The optimal Ad26 vector-based vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, termed Ad26.COV2.S, is currently being evaluated in clinical trials.

The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views.

Distrust in scientific expertise1-14 is dangerous. Opposition to vaccination with a future vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19, for example, could amplify outbreaks2-4, as happened for measles in 20195,6. Homemade remedies7,8 and falsehoods are being shared widely on the Internet, as well as dismissals of expert advice9-11. There is a lack of understanding about how this distrust evolves at the system level13,14. Here we provide a map of the contention surrounding vaccines that has emerged from the global pool of around three billion Facebook users. Its core reveals a multi-sided landscape of unprecedented intricacy that involves nearly 100 million individuals partitioned into highly dynamic, interconnected clusters across cities, countries, continents and languages. Although smaller in overall size, anti-vaccination clusters manage to become highly entangled with undecided clusters in the main online network, whereas pro-vaccination clusters are more peripheral. Our theoretical framework reproduces the recent explosive growth in anti-vaccination views, and predicts that these views will dominate in a decade. Insights provided by this framework can inform new policies and approaches to interrupt this shift to negative views. Our results challenge the conventional thinking about undecided individuals in issues of contention surrounding health, shed light on other issues of contention such as climate change11, and highlight the key role of network cluster dynamics in multi-species ecologies15.

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.

Following the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behaviour. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. We estimate that-for all of the countries we consider here-current interventions have been sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (probability Rt < 1.0 is greater than 99%) and achieve control of the epidemic. We estimate that across all 11 countries combined, between 12 and 15 million individuals were infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4 May 2020, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions-and lockdowns in particular-have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.

Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan.

As countries in the world review interventions for containing the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), important lessons can be drawn from the study of the full transmission dynamics of its causative agent-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)- in Wuhan (China), where vigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the local outbreak of this disease1. Here we use a modelling approach to reconstruct the full-spectrum dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan between 1 January and 8 March 2020 across 5 periods defined by events and interventions, on the basis of 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases1. Accounting for presymptomatic infectiousness2, time-varying ascertainment rates, transmission rates and population movements3, we identify two key features of the outbreak: high covertness and high transmissibility. We estimate 87% (lower bound, 53%) of the infections before 8 March 2020 were unascertained (potentially including asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic individuals); and a basic reproduction number (R0) of 3.54 (95% credible interval 3.40-3.67) in the early outbreak, much higher than that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)4,5. We observe that multipronged interventions had considerable positive effects on controlling the outbreak, decreasing the reproduction number to 0.28 (95% credible interval 0.23-0.33) and-by projection-reducing the total infections in Wuhan by 96.0% as of 8 March 2020. We also explore the probability of resurgence following the lifting of all interventions after 14 consecutive days of no ascertained infections; we estimate this probability at 0.32 and 0.06 on the basis of models with 87% and 53% unascertained cases, respectively-highlighting the risk posed by substantial covert infections when changing control measures. These results have important implications when considering strategies of continuing surveillance and interventions to eventually contain outbreaks of COVID-19.

A vaccine targeting the RBD of the S protein of SARS-CoV-2 induces protective immunity.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes a respiratory disease called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the spread of which has led to a pandemic. An effective preventive vaccine against this virus is urgently needed. As an essential step during infection, SARS-CoV-2 uses the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein to engage with the receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) on host cells1,2. Here we show that a recombinant vaccine that comprises residues 319-545 of the RBD of the spike protein induces a potent functional antibody response in immunized mice, rabbits and non-human primates (Macaca mulatta) as early as 7 or 14 days after the injection of a single vaccine dose. The sera from the immunized animals blocked the binding of the RBD to ACE2, which is expressed on the cell surface, and neutralized infection with a SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus and live SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. Notably, vaccination also provided protection in non-human primates to an in vivo challenge with SARS-CoV-2. We found increased levels of RBD-specific antibodies in the sera of patients with COVID-19. We show that several immune pathways and CD4 T lymphocytes are involved in the induction of the vaccine antibody response. Our findings highlight the importance of the RBD domain in the design of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and provide a rationale for the development of a protective vaccine through the induction of antibodies against the RBD domain.

Animal models for COVID-19.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the aetiological agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an emerging respiratory infection caused by the introduction of a novel coronavirus into humans late in 2019 (first detected in Hubei province, China). As of 18 September 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has spread to 215 countries, has infected more than 30 million people and has caused more than 950,000 deaths. As humans do not have pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2, there is an urgent need to develop therapeutic agents and vaccines to mitigate the current pandemic and to prevent the re-emergence of COVID-19. In February 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) assembled an international panel to develop animal models for COVID-19 to accelerate the testing of vaccines and therapeutic agents. Here we summarize the findings to date and provides relevant information for preclinical testing of vaccine candidates and therapeutic agents for COVID-19.

Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China.

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic1. The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings3. Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement4,5, we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776-164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44-94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world.