RESUMO
AIM: The aims of the study are to evaluate the predictive value of early post-operative stimulated thyroglobulin (sTg) analysis on the recurrence risk, and to define a cut-off value that is related to recurrence risk in low to intermediate risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included individuals who were diagnosed with PTC aged 18 years or older and had been operated by experienced surgeons of a tertiary university hospital between the years 2011 and 2021. The American Thyroid Association thyroid cancer guidelines version 2015 was used as the risk stratification system. Early sTg measurement obtained at 3-4 weeks after surgery when TSH >30 µIU/mL. Data was collected from the hospital database. A total of 328 patients who had post-operative early sTg values with negative anti-Tg antibodies were included. RESULTS: The median age was 44 years. Of the 328 patients, 223 (68%) were women. The median tumor diameter was 11 mm. One hundred ninety-one patients (58.2%) had low risk and 137 (41.8%) had intermediate risk for recurrent disease. Of the 328 patients, 4.0% had recurrent disease. In multivariate Cox regression, post-operative early sTg value [OR: 1.070 (1.038-1.116), P = .000], and the pre-operative malign cytology [OR: 1.483 (1.080-2.245), P = .042] were independent risk factors for recurrence. On the ROC curve analysis, the cut-off value of early sTg was 4.1 ng/mL for those with recurrent disease. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that early sTg could predict recurrent disease in patients with low to intermediate risk PTC. A cut-off of 4.1 ng/mL was identified with a high negative predictive value.