RESUMO
The worldwide prevalence of obesity has more than doubled since 1980. This global figure needs to be addressed tackled at the local level to face our future challenges at the local level. We attempted to project the prevalence of obesity in the canton of Vaud in the next 25 years. Data from the Enquête suisse sur la santé, a survey conducted every five years since 1992 by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, were used. Using different mathematical assumptions, the rate of increase in the prevalence of obesity in Switzerland between 1992 and 2012 was calculated allowing a projection of future prevalences. Between 1992 and 2016, the prevalence of obesity was 9.64%. Effective growth rate of obesity from 2016 to 2040 should be between 16'500 cases and 69'500 cases depending on the uncertainty of the effective prevalence increase over this period.
La prévalence mondiale a plus que doublé depuis 1980. Nous avons projeté la prévalence de l'obésité dans le canton de Vaud au cours des 25 prochaines années. Des données de l'Enquête suisse sur la santé, menée tous les cinq ans depuis 1992 par l'Office fédéral de la santé publique, ont été employées. En utilisant différentes hypothèses mathématiques, le taux d'augmentation de la prévalence de l'obésité en Suisse entre 1992 et 2012 a été calculé permettant une projection des prévalences futures. La prévalence de l'obésité était de 9,64 % en 2012. Le taux de croissance effectif entre 2016 et 2040 devrait être compris entre 16 500 cas et 69 500 cas en fonction de l'incertitude liée à l'augmentation effective de la prévalence au cours de cette période. La prévalence de l'obésité est en constante augmentation dans notre région et les projections ne sont pas rassurantes.
Assuntos
Obesidade/epidemiologia , Sobrepeso/epidemiologia , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos , Humanos , Prevalência , Suíça/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Diverse early-life mortality outcomes have been documented in immigrant populations in northern Europe. A recent meta-analysis has suggested that national integration policy is a key factor in understanding this heterogeneous pattern. In this study, we investigated the variation of stillbirth and neonatal mortality between societies in northern Europe in one minority population, the Turkish. METHOD: Data on stillbirth and neonatal deaths in 239 387 births during 1990-2005, where the mother was of Turkish origin, was drawn from birth registries or surveys in nine northern European countries. Rates were compared with births from mothers who were born in the society of residence. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios adjusted for year of birth of the offspring. RESULTS: The risks for stillbirth were, or tended to be, elevated for Turkish mothers in all countries compared with the native population, with the highest risk in Austria (odds ratio (OR) 1.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-2.1) and Switzerland (OR 1.6; 1.4-1.9). For neonatal mortality the results were heterogeneous, indicating no excess risk for Turkish-born children in the Netherlands, the UK and Norway, and elevated risks in Denmark (OR 1.3; 1.0-1.6), Switzerland (OR 1.3; 1.1-1.5), Austria (OR 1.4; 1.0-1.8) and Germany (OR 1.3; CI 1.2-1.5). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that preventable society-specific determinants are important for early-life mortality in Turkish migrants in Europe. An active integration policy is consistent with a favourable neonatal mortality outcome in continental Europe, but not with patterns in Scandinavia and the UK.