Improving identification of symptomatic cancer at primary care clinics: A predictive modeling analysis in Botswana.

In resource-limited settings, augmenting primary care provider (PCP)-based referrals with data-derived algorithms could direct scarce resources towards those patients most likely to have a cancer diagnosis and benefit from early treatment. Using data from Botswana, we compared accuracy of predictions of probable cancer using different approaches for identifying symptomatic cancer at primary clinics. We followed cancer suspects until they entered specialized care for cancer treatment (following pathologically confirmed diagnosis), exited from the study following noncancer diagnosis, or died. Routine symptom and demographic data included baseline cancer probability assessed by the primary care provider (low, intermediate, high), age, sex, performance status, baseline cancer probability by study physician, predominant symptom (lump, bleeding, pain or other) and HIV status. Logistic regression with 10-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate classification by different sets of predictors: (1) PCPs, (2) Algorithm-only, (3) External specialist physician review and (4) Primary clinician augmented by algorithm. Classification accuracy was assessed using c-statistics, sensitivity and specificity. Six hundred and twenty-three adult cancer suspects with complete data were retained, of whom 166 (27%) were diagnosed with cancer. Models using PCP augmented by algorithm (c-statistic: 77.2%, 95% CI: 73.4%, 81.0%) and external study physician assessment (77.6%, 95% CI: 73.6%, 81.7%) performed better than algorithm-only (74.9%, 95% CI: 71.0%, 78.9%) and PCP initial assessment (62.8%, 95% CI: 57.9%, 67.7%) in correctly classifying suspected cancer patients. Sensitivity and specificity statistics from models combining PCP classifications and routine data were comparable to physicians, suggesting that incorporating data-driven algorithms into referral systems could improve efficiency.

Correction to: Strengthening medical training programmes by focusing on professional transitions: a national bridging programme to prepare medical school graduates for their role as medical interns in Botswana.

CORRECTION: Forllowing publication of the original article [1], the first author reported that there was a typographical error in the name of one of his co-authors. The correct spelling is Alemayehu Bedada, not Alemayhu Bedada.

Strengthening medical training programmes by focusing on professional transitions: a national bridging programme to prepare medical school graduates for their role as medical interns in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: The improvement of existing medical training programmes in resource-constrained settings is seen as key to addressing the challenge of retaining medical graduates trained at considerable cost both in-country and abroad. In Botswana, the establishment of the national Medical Internship Training Programme (MIT) in 2014 was a first step in efforts to promote retention through the expansion and standardization of internship training, but MIT faces a major challenge related to variability between incoming trainees due to factors such as their completion of undergraduate medical training in different settings. To address this challenge, in August 2016 we piloted a bridging programme for foreign and locally trained medical graduates that aimed to facilitate their transition into internship training. This study aimed to describe the programme and evaluate its impact on the participants' self-rated perceptions of their knowledge, experience, clinical skills, and familiarity with Botswana's healthcare system. METHODS: We conducted a national, intensive, two-week programme designed to facilitate the transition from medical student to intern and to prepare all incoming interns for their work in Botswana's health system. Participants included all interns entering in August 2016. Formats included lectures, workshops, simulations, discussions, and reflection-oriented activities. The Kellogg Foundation Outcomes Logic Model was used to evaluate the programme, and participants self-rated their knowledge, skills, and attitudes across each of the programme objectives on paired questionnaires before and after participation. RESULTS: 48/54 participants (89%) provided paired data. Participants reported a high degree of satisfaction with the programme (mean 4.2/5). Self-rated preparedness improved after participation (mean 3.2 versus 3.7, p < 0.001), as did confidence across 18/19 knowledge/skill domains, suggesting that participants felt that the programme prepared them for their internship training. Exploratory analysis revealed that 20/25 participants (80%) reporting either no effect or a negative effect following participation had rated themselves "extremely" or "quite" prepared beforehand, suggesting the programme grounded expectations for interns who initially were overconfident. In contrast, no interns who had initially rated themselves "moderately" or "somewhat" prepared reported a decline in their self-rated sense of preparedness. Interns commented on the benefits of learning about roles/responsibilities, interacting with clinicians from Botswana's healthcare sectors, and the sense of community the programme engendered. CONCLUSIONS: This programme was feasible to implement and was well-received by participants. Overall, participants perceived an enhancement of their knowledge, skills, and expectations about their role in Botswana's health system after completion of the programme. Our results are likely to be of interest to educators dedicated to training, professional transitions, and career pathways in similar settings in the region and beyond.

Bullous Scabies in an Immunocompromised Host.

A 40-year-old woman with a history of poorly controlled HIV presented to a district referral hospital in rural Botswana for a generalized skin rash of several months duration. The highly pruritic rash predominantly involved her hands and feet and was associated with bullae that were present for days at a time before rupturing without drainage or discharge. The patient endorsed night sweats, periodic fevers, occasional cough productive of blood-tinged sputum, fatigue, and weight loss. On admission, CD4 count was 46 cells/mm3 and viral load was >750000 copies/mL. Pulmonary tuberculosis testing via sputum was negative twice. A blood count demonstrated eosinophilia. Oral acyclovir was started empirically for disseminated herpes virus infection, with topical beclomethasone and intravenous antibiotics for possible superinfected bullous dermatosis. With inadequate response to treatment, a skin biopsy was obtained and microscopic examination demonstrated scabies mites. The absence of skin burrows, the presence of bullae, and working in a low-resource setting without direct access to microscopic examination delayed diagnosis. The patient was initiated on topical permethrin. Oral ivermectin was not available in country and was obtained from overseas shipment, delaying treatment initiation. Drastic improvement was seen after the patient initiated ivermectin. A local nurse in the patient's village visited her community and found multiple individuals with active scabies infection. The patient's discharge was delayed until these community members were treated successfully with topical permethrin. This case describes an atypical presentation of scabies in an under-resourced setting, demonstrating unique diagnostic, therapeutic, and public health challenges.

Medication Errors and Blood Pressure Control Among Patients Managed for Hypertension in Public Ambulatory Care Clinics in Botswana.

Background The prevalence of hypertension in low- and middle-income countries is rapidly increasing, with most cases undiagnosed and many poorly controlled among those diagnosed. Medication reconciliation studies from high-income countries have demonstrated a high occurrence of antihypertensive medication errors and a strong association between medication errors and inadequate blood pressure control, but data from low- and middle-income countries are lacking. Methods and Results We conducted a cross-sectional study from April to October 2018 of adult patients on pharmacologic management for known hypertension at 7 public health facilities in Kweneng East District, Botswana. Our aims included to evaluate the frequency of uncontrolled hypertension, the frequency and type of medication errors causing discrepancies between patient-reported and prescribed antihypertensive medications, and the association between medication errors and uncontrolled hypertension. Descriptive analyses and multivariable logistic regression were used. The prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension was 55% among 280 enrolled adult patients, and 95 (34%) had ≥1 medication error. The most common errors included patients taking medications incorrectly (11.1%; 31/280), patients omitting medications (7.9%; 22/280), and unfilled prescriptions caused by pharmacy stock outs (7.5%%; 21/280). Uncontrolled hypertension was significantly associated with having ≥1 medication error compared with no errors (adjusted odds ratio, 3.26; 95% CI, 1.75-6.06; P<0.001). Conclusions Medication errors are strongly associated with poor blood pressure control in this setting. Further research is warranted to assess whether medication reconciliation and other low-cost interventions addressing root causes of medication errors can improve the control of hypertension and other chronic conditions in low- and middle-income countries.

Audit of Early Mortality among Patients Admitted to the General Medical Ward at a District Hospital in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among adult general medical admissions has been reported to be high across sub-Saharan Africa, yet there is a paucity of literature on causes of general medical inpatient mortality and quality-related factors that may contribute to the high incidence of deaths. Based on a prior study at our hospital as well as our clinical experience, death early in the hospitalization is common among patients admitted to the adult medical wards. OBJECTIVE: Quantify early inpatient mortality and identify factors contributing to early in-hospital mortality of medical patients in a resource-limited hospital setting in Botswana. METHODS: Twenty-seven cases of patients who died within 48 hours of admission to the general medical wards at Scottish Livingstone Hospital in Molepolole, Botswana from December 1, 2015-April 25, 2016 were retrospectively reviewed through a modified root cause analysis. FINDINGS: Early in-hospital mortality was most frequently attributed to septic shock, identified in 20 (74%) of 27 cases. The most common care management problems were delay in administration of antibiotics (15, 56%), inappropriate fluid management (15, 56%), and deficient coordination of care (15, 56%). The most common contributing factors were inadequate provider knowledge and skills in 25 cases (93%), high complexity of presenting condition in 20 (74%), and inadequate communication between team members in 18 (67%). CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes in low-and middle-income countries like Botswana are often attributed to resource limitations. Our findings suggest that while early in-hospital mortality in such settings is associated with severe presenting conditions like septic shock, primary contributors to lack of better outcomes may be healthcare-provider and system-factors rather than lack of diagnostic and therapeutic resources. Low-cost interventions to improve knowledge, skills and communication through a focus on provider education and process improvement may provide the key to reducing early in-hospital mortality and improving hospitalization outcomes in this setting.

HIV-associated morbidity and mortality in a setting of high ART coverage: prospective surveillance results from a district hospital in Botswana.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly improved survival in Africa in recent years. In Botswana, where adult HIV prevalence is 21.9%, AIDS-related mortality is estimated to have declined by 58% between 2005 and 2013 following the initial wide-spread introduction of ART, and ART coverage has steadily increased reaching 84% in 2016. However, there remains little data about the burden of HIV and its impact on mortality in the hospital setting where most deaths occur. We aimed to describe the burden of HIV and related morbidity and mortality among hospitalized medical patients in a district hospital in southern Botswana in the era of widespread ART coverage. METHODS: We prospectively reviewed medical admissions to Scottish Livingstone Hospital from December 2015 to November 2017 and recorded HIV status, demographics, clinical characteristics and final diagnoses at discharge, death or transfer. We ascertained outcomes and determined factors associated with mortality. Results were compared with similar surveillance data collected at the same facility in 2011 to 2012. RESULTS: A total of 2316 admissions occurred involving 1969 patients; 42.4% were of HIV-positive patients, 46.9% of HIV-negative patients and 10.7% of patients with unknown HIV status. Compared to HIV-negative patients, HIV-positive patients had younger age (mean 42 vs. 64 years, p < 0.0001) and higher mortality (22.2% vs. 18.0%, p = 0.03). Tuberculosis was the leading diagnosis among mortality cases in both groups but accounted for a higher proportion of deaths among HIV-positive admissions (44.5%) compared with HIV-negative admissions (19.4%, p < 0.0001). Compared with similar surveillance in 2011 to 2012, HIV prevalence was lower (42.4% vs. 47.6%, p < 0.01), and among HIV-positive admissions: ART coverage was higher (72.2% vs. 56.2%, p < 0.0001), viral load suppression was similar (78.6% vs. 80.3%, p = 0.77), CD4 counts were higher (55.0% vs. 44.6% with CD4 ≥200 cells/mm3 , p < 0.001), mortality was similar (22.2 vs. 22.7%, p = 0.93), tuberculosis diagnoses increased (27.5% vs. 20.1%, p < 0.01) and tuberculosis-associated mortality was higher (35.9% vs. 24.7%, p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Despite high ART-coverage in Botswana, HIV-positive patients continue to be disproportionately represented among hospital admissions and deaths. Deaths from tuberculosis may be contributing to lack of reduction in inpatient mortality. Our findings suggest that control of HIV and tuberculosis remain top priorities for reducing inpatient mortality in Botswana.

Promoting Health Equity Through Purposeful Design and Professionalization of Resident Global Health Electives in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

OBJECTIVE: To design an Obstetrics and Gynecology (OBGYN) residency elective in global health that meets ACGME standards and simultaneously promotes health equity. DESIGN: A 4-week elective was established for US residents in a high-volume African district hospital that served as a site for OBGYN rotations for the national internship training program. Clear clinical, operative, and teaching requirements were delineated for US OBGYN residents. Resident formal didactic outputs were incorporated into the intern OBGYN curriculum. The program was evaluated through assessment of resident experience and contribution to local training, as well as assessment of intern competency in OBGYN. SETTING: Scottish Livingstone Hospital, a public district hospital in Molepolole, Botswana. PARTICIPANTS: Second- to fourth-year OBGYN residents from US training programs, working with Batswana medical interns under on-site faculty supervision. RESULTS: From May 2016 to June 2018, 18 residents from 9 US OBGYN residency programs participated in the elective. Under supervision, US residents performed 116 major and 77 minor gynecologic surgeries, and teach-assisted Batswana interns and medical officers in 76 cesarean deliveries. Residents led or contributed significantly to 25 didactic education sessions as part of the formal intern OBGYN curriculum. During this period, 24 Batswana interns rotated through the hospital's department of OBGYN, and all 24 trainees met required OBGYN competencies prior to completing their internship. CONCLUSIONS: Matching US resident demand for global health experiences to equitable global health programming while maintaining ACGME training guidelines poses a challenge to OBGYN residency training programs. This elective provides a model OBGYN global health elective that addresses host-identified needs, broadens residents' skills, and meets standards for postgraduate OBGYN training. Purposeful global health electives for US residents embedded in longitudinal programs provide an opportunity for residents to contribute to broader global health efforts that promote health equity.

Building Health System Capacity through Medical Education: A Targeted Needs Assessment to Guide Development of a Structured Internal Medicine Curriculum for Medical Interns in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Medical internship is the final year of training before independent practice for most doctors in Botswana. Internship training in Botswana faces challenges including variability in participants' level of knowledge and skill related to their completion of medical school in a variety of settings (both foreign and domestic), lack of planned curricular content, and limited time for structured educational activities. Data on trainees' opinions regarding the content and delivery of graduate medical education in settings like Botswana are limited, which makes it difficult to revise programs in a learner-centered way. OBJECTIVE: To understand the perceptions and experiences of a group of medical interns in Botswana, in order to inform a large curriculum initiative. METHODS: We conducted a targeted needs assessment using structured interviews at one district hospital. The interview script included demographic, quantitative, and free- response questions. Fourteen interns were asked their opinions about the content and format of structured educational activities, and provided feedback on the preferred characteristics of a new curriculum. Descriptive statistics were calculated. FINDINGS: In the current curriculum, training workshops were the highest-scored teaching format, although most interns preferred lectures overall. Specialists were rated as the most useful teachers, and other interns and medical officers were rated as average. Interns felt they had adequate exposure to content such as HIV and tuberculosis, but inadequate exposure to areas including medical emergencies, non-communicable diseases, pain management, procedural skills, X-ray and EKG interpretation, disclosing medical information, and identifying career goals. For the new curriculum, interns preferred a structured case discussion format, and a focus on clinical reasoning and procedural skills. CONCLUSIONS: This needs assessment identified several foci for development, including a shift toward interactive sessions focused on skill development, the need to empower interns and medical officers to improve teaching skills, and the value of shifting curricular content to mirror the epidemiologic transition occurring in Botswana. Interns' input is being used to initiate a large curriculum intervention that will be piloted and scaled nationally over the next several years. Our results underscore the value of seeking the opinion of trainees, both to aid educators in building programs that serve them and in empowering them to direct their education toward their needs and goals.

A Step Toward Timely Referral and Early Diagnosis of Cancer: Implementation and Impact on Knowledge of a Primary Care-Based Training Program in Botswana.

INTRODUCTION: Health system delays in diagnosis of cancer contribute to the glaring disparities in cancer mortality between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries. In Botswana, approximately 70% of cancers are diagnosed at late stage and median time from first health facility visit for cancer-related symptoms to specialty cancer care was 160 days (IQR 59-653). We describe the implementation and early outcomes of training targeting primary care providers, which is a part of a multi-component implementation study in Kweneng-East district aiming to enhance timely diagnosis of cancers. METHODS: Health-care providers from all public facilities within the district were invited to participate in an 8-h intensive short-course program developed by a multidisciplinary team and adapted to the Botswana health system context. Participants' performance was assessed using a 25-multiple choice question tool, with pre- and post-assessments paired by anonymous identifier. Statistical analysis with Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare performance at the two time points across eight sub-domains (pathophysiology, epidemiology, social context, symptoms, evaluation, treatment, documentation, follow-up). Linear regression and negative binomial modeling were used to determine change in performance. Participants' satisfaction with the program was measured on a separate survey using a 5-point Likert scale. RESULTS: 176 participants attended the training over 5 days in April 2016. Pooled linear regression controlling for test version showed an overall performance increase of 16.8% after participation (95% CI 15.2-18.4). Statistically significant improvement was observed for seven out of eight subdomains on test A and all eight subdomains on test B. Overall, 71 (40.3%) trainees achieved a score greater than 70% on the pretest, and 161 (91.5%) did so on the posttest. Participants reported a high degree of satisfaction with the training program's content and its relevance to their daily work. CONCLUSION: We describe a successfully implemented primary health care provider-focused training component of an innovative intervention aiming to reduce health systems delays in cancer diagnosis in sub-Saharan Africa. The training achieved district-wide participation, and improvement in the knowledge of primary health-care providers in this setting. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT02752061.

Usefulness of anti-oxidized LDL antibody determination for assessment of clinical control in patients with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that oxidative stress may play a role in the pathogenesis of heart failure, this may have potential implications for therapeutic strategies. However, measures of oxidative stress are subject to confounding inaccuracies. IgG antibodies to oxidized LDL reflect exposure to the lipoprotein over an extended period and may thus mirror oxidative stress over a prolonged time frame. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that anti-oxLDL antibodies correlate with the control of heart failure (HF), as manifested by hospital admissions for cardiac dysfunction. METHODS: One hundred and two consecutive patients attending the HF clinic with either systolic or diastolic HF were enrolled and the quality of clinical control was evaluated by assessing hospital admissions over the year prior to index determination of the oxidative stress marker. Antibodies to oxLDL were determined by ELISA and pro-BNP levels were also measured. RESULTS: Most patients (mean age 71.5 years) had systolic HF; mean NYHA functional class was 2.7 and mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 39.7%. Anti-oxLDL antibodies, but not pro-BNP, correlated significantly with mean NYHA score (averaged from all clinic visits in the year prior to blood testing), and with hospital admissions over the year prior to blood testing. Mean IgG anti-oxLDL antibody levels in patients with hospital admissions were 3.4 times higher than those in subjects not hospitalized over the previous year. CONCLUSION: IgG anti-oxLDL antibody levels correlate with the severity of HF.

Circulating erythropoietin levels and prognosis in patients with congestive heart failure: comparison with neurohormonal and inflammatory markers.

BACKGROUND: Considerable morbidity and mortality are still associated with congestive heart failure (CHF) syndromes, despite improvement in therapy. Activation of neurohormonal, inflammatory, and oxidative mechanisms has been shown to contribute to the significant morbidity and mortality. Erythropoietin (EPO) is a cytokine known to regulate erythroid proliferation, attenuate apoptosis and oxidative stress, and promote angiogenesis. We prospectively evaluated the predictive value of baseline EPO, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and C-reactive protein levels in patients with clinically controlled chronic CHF. METHODS: One hundred eighty-eight outpatients from a CHF clinic had baseline assessment of EPO, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and C-reactive protein levels and a complete clinical data profile. These patients were followed up for 24 months for any hospitalization due to CHF or mortality. RESULTS: Circulating EPO levels were higher in CHF patients and increased in subjects with higher New York Heart Association scores. Levels of EPO (at a cutoff of 23 mU/mL) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (cutoff at the median of 1556 pg/mL) were found to be strong predictors of mortality and CHF hospitalization, whereas C-reactive protein levels (cutoff of 10 mg/L) predicted CHF hospitalizations but not mortality. Left ventricular ejection fraction was found to be a predictor of mortality but not of CHF hospitalizations. Serum levels of EPO were significantly correlated with N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein levels but not with left ventricular ejection fraction. CONCLUSION: If confirmed in large-scale clinical studies, determination of circulating EPO levels may aid in predicting morbidity and mortality in patients with clinically controlled congestive CHF.