Vision survival after open globe injury predicted by classification and regression tree analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assist ophthalmologists in treating ocular trauma patients, this study developed and validated a prognostic model to predict vision survival after open globe injury. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort review. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred fourteen patients who sought treatment at the Wilmer Ophthalmological Institute with open globe injuries from January 1, 2001, through December 31, 2004, were part of the data set used to build the classification tree model. Then, to validate the classification tree, 51 patients were followed up with the goal to compare their actual visual outcome with the outcome predicted by the tree grown from the classification and regression tree analysis. METHODS: Binary recursive partitioning was used to construct a classification tree to predict visual outcome after open globe injury. The retrospective cohort treated for open globe injury from January 1, 2001, through December 31, 2004, was used to develop the prognostic tree and constitutes the training sample. A second independent sample of patient eyes seen from January 1, 2005, through October 15, 2005, was used to validate the prognostic tree. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Two main visual outcomes were assessed: vision survival (range, 20/20-light perception) and no vision (included no light perception, enucleation, and evisceration outcomes). RESULTS: A prognostic model for open globe injury outcome was constructed using 214 open globe injuries. Of 14 predictors determined to be associated with a no vision outcome in univariate analysis, presence of a relative afferent pupillary defect and poor initial visual acuity were the most predictive of complete loss of vision; presence of lid laceration and posterior wound location also predicted poor visual outcomes. In an independent cohort of 51 eyes, the prognostic model had 85.7% sensitivity to predict no vision correctly and 91.9% specificity to predict vision survival correctly. CONCLUSIONS: The open globe injury prognostic model constructed in this study demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy and should be useful in counseling patients and making clinical decisions regarding open globe injury management.

The number of people with glaucoma worldwide in 2010 and 2020.

AIM: To estimate the number of people with open angle (OAG) and angle closure glaucoma (ACG) in 2010 and 2020. METHODS: A review of published data with use of prevalence models. Data from population based studies of age specific prevalence of OAG and ACG that satisfied standard definitions were used to construct prevalence models for OAG and ACG by age, sex, and ethnicity, weighting data proportional to sample size of each study. Models were combined with UN world population projections for 2010 and 2020 to derive the estimated number with glaucoma. RESULTS: There will be 60.5 million people with OAG and ACG in 2010, increasing to 79.6 million by 2020, and of these, 74% will have OAG. Women will comprise 55% of OAG, 70% of ACG, and 59% of all glaucoma in 2010. Asians will represent 47% of those with glaucoma and 87% of those with ACG. Bilateral blindness will be present in 4.5 million people with OAG and 3.9 million people with ACG in 2010, rising to 5.9 and 5.3 million people in 2020, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Glaucoma is the second leading cause of blindness worldwide, disproportionately affecting women and Asians.

Acute vestibular neuritis: prognosis based upon bedside clinical tests (thrusts and heaves).

We compared bedside tests of vestibulo-ocular function (head thrust and head heave signs) with caloric testing results in 68 patients with acute vestibular neuritis seen at onset and in follow-up for one year. The head thrust and head heave signs each were strong predictors of a decreased probability of recovery, and if both were present, there was a trend for a slower recovery and a further decrease in the probability of recovery. If the head thrust sign was absent, recovery was assured. Our results suggest that careful bedside testing of semicircular canal (head thrust maneuver) and otolith (head heave maneuver) function provides useful information for predicting prognosis in patients with acute vestibular neuritis.

Diabetes and diabetic retinopathy in a Mexican-American population: Proyecto VER.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence rate of diabetes is probably higher in Hispanics than in Caucasians, although there is controversy about differences in the risk of diabetic retinopathy. The purpose of the study is to determine the prevalence rates of diabetes and diabetic retinopathy in a population-based study of Hispanics aged > or = 40 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Proyecto VER is a random sample of Hispanic populations aged > or = 40 years in Arizona. A total of 4,774 individuals (71.6% of the eligible sample) completed the examinations. Diabetes was defined as self-report of a physician diagnosis or HbA(1c) value of > or = 7.0%. Diabetic retinopathy was assessed on stereo fundus photographs of fields 1, 2, and 4. RESULTS: The prevalence rate of diabetes in the Hispanic community (individuals > or = 40 years of age) was 22%. The prevalence rate of diabetic retinopathy (DR) was 48%; 32% had moderate to severe nonproliferative and proliferative retinopathy. DR increased with increasing duration of diabetes and increasing level of HbA(1c). The prevalence rate of DR-like changes in the sample of individuals without diabetic retinopathy was 15% and was not associated with hypertension, systolic blood pressure, or diastolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence rate of diabetes in this population of Hispanics is high, almost twice that of Caucasians. The prevalence rate of DR is high but similar to reports in a Caucasian population. The prevalence rate of 9% moderate to severe retinopathy in the newly diagnosed group suggests that efforts to improve detection and treatment of diabetes in Hispanics may be warranted.

Psychometric properties of the 25-item NEI-VFQ in a Hispanic population: Proyecto VER.

PURPOSE: To assess the psychometric properties of the NEI-VFQ-25 in a population-based study of older Hispanic persons living in the United States, explore other demographic factors that affect participant response, and observe the comparability of the Spanish and English versions of the instrument. METHODS: A sample of randomly selected block groups in Tucson and Nogales, Arizona, were selected for study. Participants were interviewed at home; a majority of the interviews were conducted in Spanish. The home interview included questions from the NEI-VFQ-25 and HHANES: Presenting acuity was done using ETDRS methodology, followed by a standardized eye examination by an ophthalmologist. The authors analyzed the internal consistency of the NEI-VFQ-25 responses using Cronbach's alpha coefficient and the construct validity by assessing the relationship between presenting acuity and scale scores, adjusting for age and gender. A second model was also explored to determine whether other demographic variables affected scale scores; differences in reporting between the Spanish and English versions was observed in this model, used in a subset of the population that minimized interviewer effect. RESULTS: Of the 4774 participants in the study, 99.7% had completed questionnaires, not completed by proxy. The highest nonresponse rate occurred in the Driving scale, with 25% of participants not driving for reasons other than problems with vision. Internal consistency was high, with Cronbach alpha ranging between 0.65 and 0.86 for scales with multiple items. Adjusting for age and gender, those with presenting acuity worse than 20/40 scored significantly lower than those with presenting acuity 20/40 or better, for all scales. The demographic variables with the most consistent association across the NEI-VFQ-25 scales were presenting acuity, income, and gender. No significant differences in reporting were found between the Spanish and English versions of the questionnaire in the subset of the population. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of Hispanic people age 40 years or older, the NEI-VFQ-25 was sensitive to presenting acuity and other demographic variables, such as age, gender, and income. The findings from this psychometric analysis provide evidence of the reliability and validity of some of the scales in the 25-item NEI-VFQ when used among people with a range of visual acuity level, providing other explanatory variables are also considered.

Biometric gonioscopy and the effects of age, race, and sex on the anterior chamber angle.

AIM: To utilise a novel method for making measurements in the anterior chamber in order to compare the anterior chamber angles of people of European, African, and east Asian descent aged 40 years and over. METHODS: A cross sectional study on 15 people of each sex from each decade from the 40s to the 70s, from each of three racial groups-black, white, and Chinese Singaporeans. Biometric gonioscopy (BG) utilises a slit lamp mounted reticule to make measurements from the apparent iris insertion to Schwalbe's line through a Goldmann one mirror goniolens. The main outcome measures were BG measurements of the anterior chamber angle as detailed above. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in angle measurement between black, white, and Chinese races in this study. However, at younger ages people of Chinese race appeared to have deeper angles than white or black people, whereas the angles of older Chinese were significantly narrower (p = 0.004 for the difference in slope of BG by age between Chinese and both black and white people). CONCLUSION: The failure to detect a difference in angle measurements between these groups was surprising, given the much higher prevalence of angle closure among Chinese. It appears that the overall apparent similarity of BG means between Chinese and Western populations may mask very different trends with age. The apparently more rapid decline in angle width measurements with age among Chinese may be due to the higher prevalence of cataract or "creeping angle closure." However, longitudinal inferences from cross sectional data are problematic, and this may represent a cohort phenomenon caused by the increasing prevalence of myopia in the younger Singaporean population.