Atherosclerosis quantification and cardiovascular risk: the ISCHEMIA trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-derived atherosclerotic plaque analysis in ISCHEMIA. METHODS: Atherosclerosis imaging quantitative computed tomography (AI-QCT) was performed on all available baseline CCTAs to quantify plaque volume, composition, and distribution. Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between baseline risk factors (age, sex, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, ejection fraction, prior coronary disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and statin use), number of diseased vessels, atherosclerotic plaque characteristics determined by AI-QCT, and a composite primary outcome of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction over a median follow-up of 3.3 (interquartile range 2.2-4.4) years. The predictive value of plaque quantification over risk factors was compared in an area under the curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: Analysable CCTA data were available from 3711 participants (mean age 64 years, 21% female, 79% multivessel coronary artery disease). Amongst the AI-QCT variables, total plaque volume was most strongly associated with the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.25-1.97 per interquartile range increase [559 mm3]; P = .001). The addition of AI-QCT plaque quantification and characterization to baseline risk factors improved the model's predictive value for the primary outcome at 6 months (AUC 0.688 vs. 0.637; P = .006), at 2 years (AUC 0.660 vs. 0.617; P = .003), and at 4 years of follow-up (AUC 0.654 vs. 0.608; P = .002). The findings were similar for the other reported outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In ISCHEMIA, total plaque volume was associated with cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. In this highly diseased, high-risk population, enhanced assessment of atherosclerotic burden using AI-QCT-derived measures of plaque volume and composition modestly improved event prediction.

Heterogeneity in the Association Between the Presence of Coronary Artery Calcium and Cardiovascular Events: A Machine-Learning Approach in the MESA Study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been widely recognized as an important predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Given the finite resources, it is important to identify individuals who would receive the most benefit from detecting positive CAC by screening. However, the evidence is limited as to whether the burden of positive CAC on CVD differs by multidimensional individual characteristics. We sought to investigate the heterogeneity in the association between positive CAC and incident CVD. METHODS: This cohort study included adults from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) ages ≥45 years and free of cardiovascular disease. After propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio, we applied a machine learning causal forest model to (1) evaluate the heterogeneity in the association between positive CAC and incident CVD, and (2) predict the increase in CVD risk at 10-years when CAC>0 (versus CAC=0) at the individual level. We then compared the estimated increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 to the absolute 10-year atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk calculated by the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations. RESULTS: Across 3328 adults in our propensity score-matched analysis, our causal forest model showed the heterogeneity in the association between CAC>0 and incident CVD. We found a dose-response relationship of the estimated increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 with higher 10-year ASCVD risk. Almost all individuals (2293 of 2428 [94.4%]) with borderline risk of ASCVD or higher showed ≥2.5% increase in CVD risk when CAC>0. Even among 900 adults with low ASCVD risk, 689 (69.2%) showed ≥2.5% increase in CVD risk when CAC>0; these individuals were more likely to be male, Hispanic, and have unfavorable CVD risk factors than others. CONCLUSIONS: The expected increases in CVD risk when CAC>0 were heterogeneous across individuals. Moreover, nearly 70% of people with low ASCVD risk showed a large increase in CVD risk when CAC>0, highlighting the need for CAC screening among such low-risk individuals. Future studies are needed to assess whether targeting individuals for CAC measurements based on not only the absolute ASCVD risk but also the expected increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 improves cardiovascular outcomes.

Coronary artery calcium and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lymphoma undergoing autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) have a >2-fold risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD; heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke), compared to the general population. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is predictive of CVD in nononcology patients but is not as well studied in patients who underwent HCT and survivors of HCT.The objective of this study was to examine the association between CAC and CVD risk and outcomes after HCT in patients with lymphoma. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 243 consecutive patients who underwent a first autologous HCT for lymphoma between 2009 and 2014. CAC (Agatston score) was determined from chest computed tomography obtained <60 days from HCT. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratio (HR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for covariates (age, conventional risk factors [e.g., hypertension and dyslipidemia], and cancer treatment). RESULTS: The median age at HCT was 55.7 years (range, 18.5-75.1 years), 59% were male, and 60% were non-Hispanic White. The prevalence of CAC was 37%. The 5-year CVD incidence for the cohort was 12%, and there was an incremental increase in the incidence according to CAC score: 0 (6%), 1-100 (20%), and >100 (32%) (p = .001). CAC was significantly associated with CVD risk (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.2-7.5) and worse 5-year survival (77% vs. 50%; p < .001; HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.4), compared to those without CAC. CONCLUSIONS: CAC is independently associated with CVD and survival after HCT. This highlights the importance of integrating readily available imaging information in risk stratification and decision-making in patients undergoing HCT, which sets the stage for strategies to optimize outcomes after HCT.

High Incidence Rate of Computed Tomography-Measured Steatotic Liver Disease in Men With and Without HIV Infection.

INTRODUCTION: We determined steatotic liver disease (SLD) incidence in a prospective cohort of men with HIV (MWH) and men without HIV (MWOH). METHODS: Incident SLD was defined using paired noncontrast computed tomography scans performed during 2010-2013 and repeated during 2015-2017. RESULTS: Of 268 men, 173 MWH and 95 MWOH, 33 had incident SLD (11.1%, incidence rate 2.4 and 2.7/100 person-years for MWH and MWOH, respectively). Overall, higher abdominal visceral adipose tissue was independently associated with increased SLD risk. In MWH, increased visceral adipose tissue, insulin resistance, chronic hepatitis B, and cumulative etravirine use were associated with SLD. DISCUSSION: Metabolic factors, but not HIV, were associated with incident SLD. The high incidence rate suggests that SLD will continue to increase in PWH.

Effect of tirzepatide on the progression of coronary atherosclerosis using MDCT: Rationale and design of the tirzepatide treatment on coronary atherosclerosis progression: The (T-Plaque) randomized-controlled trial design.

INTRODUCTION: Tirzepatide is a novel once-week dual GIP/GLP-1 RA agonist approved for T2DM and its role to reduce cardiovascular events remains to be elucidated. The goal of this trial is to assess how tirzepatide affects the progression of atherosclerotic plaque as determined by multidetector computed tomography angiography (MDCTA). METHODS: This trial is a double blind, randomized, prospective, placebo-controlled multicenter phase IV trial. Participant eligible for the study will be adults with T2DM between 40 and 80 years of age who have HbA1c ≥ 7.0% to ≤ 10.5% and at least 20% stenosis in major epicardial vessel on CCTA. Baseline examination will include the results of their demographics, lab tests, coronary calcium, as well as coronary plaque volume/composition. Following randomization, tirzepatide or placebo will be given at a weekly dose of 2.5 mg, and a fixed dose-escalation strategy will be followed. Patients will undergo quarterly visits for safety assessments and labs, and follow up with repeat CCTA at 1 year. DISCUSSION: This study evaluates the antiatherogenic potential of tirzepatide, providing a mechanism of potential CV benefit. This is crucial to our understanding of T2DM treatment and CVD since plaque progression portends worse outcomes in these populations. MDCTA is a noninvasive method that assesses the volume, composition, and degree of coronary vessel stenosis. CONCLUSION: This study will be the first study to assess the effects of tirzepatide on atherosclerotic plaque progression measured by MDCTA in participants with T2DM.

Effect of colchicine on progression of known coronary atherosclerosis in patients with STable CoROnary artery disease CoMpared to placebo (EKSTROM) trial-rationale and design.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality in the United States. Despite lifestyle modification and traditional risk factor control residual inflammatory risk remains an untreated concern. Colchicine is an oral, medication that has been used for gout, mediterranean fever and pericarditis for decades. In recent trials, colchicine has been shown to reduce major adverse cardiovascular events, however the mechanism of benefit remains unclear. The objective of the randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled EKSTROM trial is to evaluate the effects of colchicine 0.5mg/day on atherosclerotic plaque. METHODS: Eighty-four participants will be enrolled after obtaining informed consent and followed for 12 months. Eligible patients will be randomly assigned to colchicine 0.5mg/day or placebo in a 1:1 fashion as add-on to their standard of care. All participants will undergo coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) at baseline and at 12 months. RESULTS: As of November 2023, the study is 100% enrolled with an expected end of study by the second quarter of 2024. The primary endpoint is change in low attenuation plaque volume as measured by CCTA. Secondary endpoints include change in volume of different plaque types (including total atheroma volume, noncalcified plaque volume, dense calcified plaque volume, remodeling index), change in inflammatory markers (IL-6, IL-1ß, IL-18, hs-CRP), change in pericoronary adipose tissue attenuation, change in epicardial adipose tissue volume and attenuation and change in brachial flow mediated dilation. CONCLUSION: EKSTROM is the first randomized study to assess the effects of colchicine on plaque progression, pericoronary and epicardial fat. EKSTROM will provide important information on the mechanistic effects of colchicine on the cardiovascular system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registry: clinicaltrials.gov, Registration Number: NCT06342609 url: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/study/NCT06342609?term=EKSTROM&rank=1.

Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification and Risk of Clinical Events in CKD: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Coronary artery calcification (CAC) progresses rapidly in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) compared with the general population. We studied the association between CAC progression and higher risks of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), congestive heart failure, and all-cause mortality among adults with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: & Participants: 1,310 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study who had at least one CAC scan with no prior history of CVD and with observed or imputed data on changes in CAC over time. EXPOSURE: Observed or imputed CAC progression, categorized as incident CAC among participants with zero CAC on the baseline scan, or progressive CAC when the baseline scan demonstrated CAC and there was an increase in CAC ≥50 Agatston units per year. OUTCOMES: Atherosclerotic CVD (myocardial infarction or stroke), congestive heart failure, and all-cause mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression, stratified by presence of CAC at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 545 participants without and 765 with prevalent CAC at baseline were included. During a mean 3.3 years between CAC assessments, 177 (32.5%) participants without baseline CAC developed incident CAC while 270 participants (35.3%) with baseline CAC developed a ≥50 Agatston units per year increase in CAC. After multivariable adjustment, incident CAC was associated with 2.42-fold higher rate of atherosclerotic CVD (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-4.79) and 1.82-fold higher rate of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 1.03-3.22). Progressive CAC (≥50 units per year) was not associated with atherosclerotic CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42; 95% CI: 0.85-2.35) but was associated with a 1.73-fold higher rate of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 1.31-2.28). Progressive CAC was not associated with incident heart failure. LIMITATIONS: Residual confounding and limited statistical power for some outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with CKD stages 2-4, CAC progression over a mean 3.3 years was associated with higher risk of atherosclerotic CVD and all-cause mortality. The associations were strongest among participants without CAC at baseline.

Trabecular bone mineral density as measured by thoracic vertebrae predicts incident hip and vertebral fractures: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

We evaluated the relationship of bone mineral density (BMD) by computed tomography (CT), to predict fractures in a multi-ethnic population. We demonstrated that vertebral and hip fractures were more likely in those patients with low BMD. This is one of the first studies to demonstrate that CT BMD derived from thoracic vertebrae can predict future hip and vertebral fractures. PURPOSE/INTRODUCTION: Osteoporosis affects an enormous number of patients, of all races and both sexes, and its prevalence increases as the population ages. Few studies have evaluated the association between the vertebral trabecular bone mineral density(vBMD) and osteoporosis-related hip fracture in a multiethnic population, and no studies have demonstrated the predictive value of vBMD for fractures. METHOD: We sought to determine the predictive value of QCT-based trabecular vBMD of thoracic vertebrae derived from coronary artery calcium scan for hip fractures in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis(MESA), a nationwide multicenter cohort included 6814 people from six medical centers across the USA and assess if low bone density by QCT can predict future fractures. Measures were done using trabecular bone measures, adjusted for individual patients, from three consecutive thoracic vertebrae (BDI Inc, Manhattan Beach CA, USA) from non-contrast cardiac CT scans. RESULTS: Six thousand eight hundred fourteen MESA baseline participants were included with a mean age of 62.2 ± 10.2 years, and 52.8% were women. The mean thoracic BMD is 162.6 ± 46.8 mg/cm3 (95% CI 161.5, 163.7), and 27.6% of participants (n = 1883) had osteoporosis (T-score 2.5 or lower). Over a median follow-up of 17.4 years, Caucasians have a higher rate of vertebral fractures (6.9%), followed by Blacks (4.4%), Hispanics (3.7%), and Chinese (3.0%). Hip fracture patients had a lower baseline vBMD as measured by QCT than the non-hip fracture group by 13.6 mg/cm3 [P < 0.001]. The same pattern was seen in the vertebral fracture population, where the mean BMD was substantially lower 18.3 mg/cm3 [P < 0.001] than in the non-vertebral fracture population. Notably, the above substantial relationship was unaffected by age, gender, race, BMI, hypertension, current smoking, medication use, or activity. Patients with low trabecular BMD of thoracic vertebrae showed a 1.57-fold greater risk of first hip fracture (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.38-1.95) and a nearly threefold increased risk of first vertebral fracture (HR 2.93, 95% CI 1.87-4.59) compared to normal BMD patients. CONCLUSION: There is significant correlation between thoracic trabecular BMD and the incidence of future hip and vertebral fracture. This study demonstrates that thoracic vertebrae BMD, as measured on cardiac CT (QCT), can predict both hip and vertebral fractures without additional radiation, scanning, or patient burden. Osteopenia and osteoporosis are markedly underdiagnosed. Finding occult disease affords the opportunity to treat the millions of people undergoing CT scans every year for other indications.

The association of microvascular disease and endothelial dysfunction with vertebral trabecular bone mineral density : The MESA study.

Retinopathy and albuminuria are associated with hip fracture risk. We investigated whether these disorders and endothelial dysfunction (which underlies microvascular diseases) were associated with low trabecular bone density. No significant associations were found, suggesting that microvascular diseases are not related to fracture risk through low trabecular bone density. PURPOSE: Microvascular diseases of the eye, kidney, and brain are associated with endothelial dysfunction and increased hip fracture risk. To explore the basis for higher hip fracture risk, we comprehensively examined whether markers of microvascular disease and/or endothelial dysfunction are related to trabecular bone mineral density (BMD), a proximate risk factor for osteoporotic fractures. METHODS: Among 6814 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis study (MESA), we derived thoracic vertebral trabecular BMD from computed tomography of the chest and measured urine albumin to creatinine ratios (UACR), retinal arteriolar and venular widths, flow mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery after 5 min of ischemia; and levels of five soluble endothelial adhesion markers (ICAM-1, VCAM-1, L-selectin, P-selectin, and E-selectin). Linear regression models were used to examine the association of trabecular BMD with markers of microvascular disease and with markers of endothelial dysfunction. RESULTS: We observed no significant associations of UACR, retinal arteriolar or venular widths, or FMD with BMD. We also observed no statistically significant association of spine trabecular BMD with levels of endothelial adhesion markers. Men and women had largely similar results. CONCLUSION: We conclude that there is little evidence to connect thoracic spine trabecular BMD to microvascular disorders or to endothelial dysfunction among multi-ethnic middle-aged and older adults. Other factors beyond trabecular BMD (e.g., bone quality or predisposition to falling) may be responsible for the associations of microvascular disease with osteoporotic fractures.

Progression of non-obstructive coronary plaque: a practical CCTA-based risk score from the PARADIGM registry.

OBJECTIVES: No clear recommendations are endorsed by the different scientific societies on the clinical use of repeat coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in patients with non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). This study aimed to develop and validate a practical CCTA risk score to predict medium-term disease progression in patients at a low-to-intermediate probability of CAD. METHODS: Patients were part of the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry. Specifically, 370 (derivation cohort) and 219 (validation cohort) patients with two repeat, clinically indicated CCTA scans, non-obstructive CAD, and absence of high-risk plaque (≥ 2 high-risk features) at baseline CCTA were included. Disease progression was defined as the new occurrence of ≥ 50% stenosis and/or high-risk plaque at follow-up CCTA. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 104 (28%) patients experienced disease progression. The median time interval between the two CCTAs was 3.3 years (2.7-4.8). Odds ratios for disease progression derived from multivariable logistic regression were as follows: 4.59 (95% confidence interval: 1.69-12.48) for the number of plaques with spotty calcification, 3.73 (1.46-9.52) for the number of plaques with low attenuation component, 2.71 (1.62-4.50) for 25-49% stenosis severity, 1.47 (1.17-1.84) for the number of bifurcation plaques, and 1.21 (1.02-1.42) for the time between the two CCTAs. The C-statistics of the model were 0.732 (0.676-0.788) and 0.668 (0.583-0.752) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new CCTA-based risk score is a simple and practical tool that can predict mid-term CAD progression in patients with known non-obstructive CAD. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The clinical implementation of this new CCTA-based risk score can help promote the management of patients with non-obstructive coronary disease in terms of timing of imaging follow-up and therapeutic strategies. KEY POINTS: • No recommendations are available on the use of repeat CCTA in patients with non-obstructive CAD. • This new CCTA score predicts mid-term CAD progression in patients with non-obstructive stenosis at baseline. • This new CCTA score can help guide the clinical management of patients with non-obstructive CAD.