Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations.

BACKGROUND: Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD. METHODS: The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets. RESULTS: Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean±SD age was 53±12 years, and 56% were women. Over a mean±SD follow-up of 4.8±3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.

Proteomic Indicators of Health Predict Alzheimer's Disease Biomarker Levels and Dementia Risk.

OBJECTIVE: Few studies have comprehensively examined how health and disease risk influence Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers. The present study examined the association of 14 protein-based health indicators with plasma and neuroimaging biomarkers of AD and neurodegeneration. METHODS: In 706 cognitively normal adults, we examined whether 14 protein-based health indices (ie, SomaSignal® tests) were associated with concurrently measured plasma-based biomarkers of AD pathology (amyloid-ß [Aß]42/40 , tau phosphorylated at threonine-181 [pTau-181]), neuronal injury (neurofilament light chain [NfL]), and reactive astrogliosis (glial fibrillary acidic protein [GFAP]), brain volume, and cortical Aß and tau. In a separate cohort (n = 11,285), we examined whether protein-based health indicators associated with neurodegeneration also predict 25-year dementia risk. RESULTS: Greater protein-based risk for cardiovascular disease, heart failure mortality, and kidney disease was associated with lower Aß42/40 and higher pTau-181, NfL, and GFAP levels, even in individuals without cardiovascular or kidney disease. Proteomic indicators of body fat percentage, lean body mass, and visceral fat were associated with pTau-181, NfL, and GFAP, whereas resting energy rate was negatively associated with NfL and GFAP. Together, these health indicators predicted 12, 31, 50, and 33% of plasma Aß42/40 , pTau-181, NfL, and GFAP levels, respectively. Only protein-based measures of cardiovascular risk were associated with reduced regional brain volumes; these measures predicted 25-year dementia risk, even among those without clinically defined cardiovascular disease. INTERPRETATION: Subclinical peripheral health may influence AD and neurodegenerative disease processes and relevant biomarker levels, particularly NfL. Cardiovascular health, even in the absence of clinically defined disease, plays a central role in brain aging and dementia. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:260-273.

Association of Low Glomerular Filtration Rate With Adverse Outcomes at Older Age in a Large Population With Routinely Measured Cystatin C.

BACKGROUND: The commonly accepted threshold of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to define chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. This threshold is based partly on associations between estimated GFR (eGFR) and the frequency of adverse outcomes. The association is weaker in older adults, which has created disagreement about the appropriateness of the threshold for these persons. In addition, the studies measuring these associations included relatively few outcomes and estimated GFR on the basis of creatinine level (eGFRcr), which may be less accurate in older adults. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations in older adults between eGFRcr versus eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C levels (eGFRcr-cys) and 8 outcomes. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Stockholm, Sweden, 2010 to 2019. PARTICIPANTS: 82 154 participants aged 65 years or older with outpatient creatinine and cystatin C testing. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT); incidence rate ratios for recurrent hospitalizations, infection, myocardial infarction or stroke, heart failure, and acute kidney injury. RESULTS: The associations between eGFRcr-cys and outcomes were monotonic, but most associations for eGFRcr were U-shaped. In addition, eGFRcr-cys was more strongly associated with outcomes than eGFRcr. For example, the adjusted hazard ratios for 60 versus 80 mL/min/1.73 m2 for all-cause mortality were 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.3) for eGFRcr-cys and 1.0 (CI, 0.9 to 1.0) for eGFRcr, and for KFRT they were 2.6 (CI, 1.2 to 5.8) and 1.4 (CI, 0.7 to 2.8), respectively. Similar findings were observed in subgroups, including those with a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio below 30 mg/g. LIMITATION: No GFR measurements. CONCLUSION: Compared with low eGFRcr in older patients, low eGFRcr-cys was more strongly associated with adverse outcomes and the associations were more uniform. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Swedish Research Council, National Institutes of Health, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.

Myocardial Injury Thresholds for 4 High-Sensitivity Troponin Assays in a Population-Based Sample of US Children and Adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial injury is an important pediatric diagnosis. Establishing normative data from a representative pediatric sample is vital to provide accurate upper reference limits (URLs) for defining myocardial injury using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin. METHODS: Among participants 1 to 18 years of age in the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we measured high-sensitivity troponin T using one assay (Roche) and high-sensitivity troponin I using 3 assays (Abbott, Siemens, and Ortho). In a strictly defined healthy subgroup, we estimated 97.5th and 99th percentile URLs for each assay using the recommended nonparametric method. RESULTS: Of 5695 pediatric participants, 4029 met criteria for the healthy subgroup (50% males; mean age 12.6 years). Our 99th percentile URL estimates for all 4 high-sensitivity troponin assays among children and adolescents were lower than the manufacturer-reported URLs (derived from adults). The 99th percentile URLs (95% CI) were 15 ng/L (95% CI, 12-17) for high-sensitivity troponin T, 16 ng/L (95% CI, 12-19) for high-sensitivity troponin I with the Abbott assay, 38 ng/L (95% CI, 25-46) for high-sensitivity troponin I with the Siemens assay, and 7 ng/L (95% CI, 5, 12) for high-sensitivity troponin I with the Ortho assay. The 95% CIs for age-, sex-, and race and ethnicity-specific 99th percentile URLs overlapped. However, the 97.5th percentile URL for each assay was measured with superior statistical precision (ie, tighter 95% CIs) and demonstrated differences by sex. For male compared with female children and adolescents, 97.5th percentile URLs were 11 ng/L (95% CI, 10-12) versus 6 ng/L (95% CI, 6-7) for high-sensitivity troponin T, 9 ng/L (95% CI, 7-10) versus 5 ng/L (95% CI, 4-6) for high-sensitivity troponin I with the Abbott assay, 21 ng/L (95% CI, 18-25) versus 11 ng/L (95% CI, 9-13) for high-sensitivity troponin I with the Siemens assay, and 4 ng/L (95% CI, 3-5) versus 2 ng/L (95% CI, 1-3) for high-sensitivity troponin I with the Ortho assay. In contrast to the 99th percentiles, the point estimates of 97.5th percentile pediatric URLs for high-sensitivity troponin were also much more stable to differences in the analytic approaches taken to estimate URLs. CONCLUSIONS: Because myocardial infarction is rare in children and adolescents, the use of statistically more precise and reliable sex-specific 97.5th percentile high-sensitivity troponin URLs might be considered to define pediatric myocardial injury.

Novel Prediction Equations for Absolute Risk Assessment of Total Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a novel construct recently defined by the American Heart Association in response to the high prevalence of metabolic and kidney disease. Epidemiological data demonstrate higher absolute risk of both atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure as an individual progresses from CKM stage 0 to stage 3, but optimal strategies for risk assessment need to be refined. Absolute risk assessment with the goal to match type and intensity of interventions with predicted risk and expected treatment benefit remains the cornerstone of primary prevention. Given the growing number of therapies in our armamentarium that simultaneously address all 3 CKM axes, novel risk prediction equations are needed that incorporate predictors and outcomes relevant to the CKM context. This should also include social determinants of health, which are key upstream drivers of CVD, to more equitably estimate and address risk. This scientific statement summarizes the background, rationale, and clinical implications for the newly developed sex-specific, race-free risk equations: PREVENT (AHA Predicting Risk of CVD Events). The PREVENT equations enable 10- and 30-year risk estimates for total CVD (composite of atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure), include estimated glomerular filtration rate as a predictor, and adjust for competing risk of non-CVD death among adults 30 to 79 years of age. Additional models accommodate enhanced predictive utility with the addition of CKM factors when clinically indicated for measurement (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c) or social determinants of health (social deprivation index) when available. Approaches to implement risk-based prevention using PREVENT across various settings are discussed.

A Synopsis of the Evidence for the Science and Clinical Management of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) Syndrome: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

A growing appreciation of the pathophysiological interrelatedness of metabolic risk factors such as obesity and diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease has led to the conceptualization of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. The confluence of metabolic risk factors and chronic kidney disease within cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome is strongly linked to risk for adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. In addition, there are unique management considerations for individuals with established cardiovascular disease and coexisting metabolic risk factors, chronic kidney disease, or both. An extensive body of literature supports our scientific understanding of, and approach to, prevention and management for individuals with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. However, there are critical gaps in knowledge related to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome in terms of mechanisms of disease development, heterogeneity within clinical phenotypes, interplay between social determinants of health and biological risk factors, and accurate assessments of disease incidence in the context of competing risks. There are also key limitations in the data supporting the clinical care for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome, particularly in terms of early-life prevention, screening for risk factors, interdisciplinary care models, optimal strategies for supporting lifestyle modification and weight loss, targeting of emerging cardioprotective and kidney-protective therapies, management of patients with both cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, and the impact of systematically assessing and addressing social determinants of health. This scientific statement uses a crosswalk of major guidelines, in addition to a review of the scientific literature, to summarize the evidence and fundamental gaps related to the science, screening, prevention, and management of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome.

Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health reflects the interplay among metabolic risk factors, chronic kidney disease, and the cardiovascular system and has profound impacts on morbidity and mortality. There are multisystem consequences of poor cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health, with the most significant clinical impact being the high associated incidence of cardiovascular disease events and cardiovascular mortality. There is a high prevalence of poor cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health in the population, with a disproportionate burden seen among those with adverse social determinants of health. However, there is also a growing number of therapeutic options that favorably affect metabolic risk factors, kidney function, or both that also have cardioprotective effects. To improve cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health and related outcomes in the population, there is a critical need for (1) more clarity on the definition of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome; (2) an approach to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic staging that promotes prevention across the life course; (3) prediction algorithms that include the exposures and outcomes most relevant to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health; and (4) strategies for the prevention and management of cardiovascular disease in relation to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health that reflect harmonization across major subspecialty guidelines and emerging scientific evidence. It is also critical to incorporate considerations of social determinants of health into care models for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome and to reduce care fragmentation by facilitating approaches for patient-centered interdisciplinary care. This presidential advisory provides guidance on the definition, staging, prediction paradigms, and holistic approaches to care for patients with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome and details a multicomponent vision for effectively and equitably enhancing cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health in the population.

Head Injury and Risk of Incident Ischemic Stroke in Community-Dwelling Adults.

BACKGROUND: While stroke is a recognized short-term sequela of traumatic brain injury, evidence about long-term ischemic stroke risk after traumatic brain injury remains limited. METHODS: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study is an ongoing prospective cohort comprised of US community-dwelling adults enrolled in 1987 to 1989 followed through 2019. Head injury was defined using self-report and hospital-based diagnostic codes and was analyzed as a time-varying exposure. Incident ischemic stroke events were physician-adjudicated. We used Cox regression adjusted for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors to estimate the hazard of ischemic stroke as a function of head injury. Secondary analyses explored the number and severity of head injuries; the mechanism and severity of incident ischemic stroke; and heterogeneity within subgroups defined by race, sex, and age. RESULTS: Our analysis included 12 813 participants with no prior head injury or stroke. The median follow-up age was 27.1 years (25th-75th percentile=21.1-30.5). Participants were of median age 54 years (25th-75th percentile=49-59) at baseline; 57.7% were female and 27.8% were Black. There were 2158 (16.8%) participants with at least 1 head injury and 1141 (8.9%) participants with an incident ischemic stroke during follow-up. For those with head injuries, the median age to ischemic stroke was 7.5 years (25th-75th percentile=2.2-14.0). In adjusted models, head injury was associated with an increased hazard of incident ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.12-1.60]). We observed evidence of dose-response for the number of head injuries (1: HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.97-1.40]; ≥2: HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.39-2.71]) but not for injury severity. We observed evidence of stronger associations between head injury and more severe stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≤5: HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.04-1.64]; National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score 6-10: HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.06-2.52]; National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥11: HR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.18-2.76]). Results were similar across stroke mechanism and within strata of race, sex, and age. CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based cohort, head injury was associated with subsequent ischemic stroke. These results suggest the importance of public health interventions aimed at preventing head injuries and primary stroke prevention among individuals with prior traumatic brain injuries.

Evaluation of novel candidate filtration markers from a global metabolomic discovery for glomerular filtration rate estimation.

Creatinine and cystatin-C are recommended for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) but accuracy is suboptimal. Here, using untargeted metabolomics data, we sought to identify candidate filtration markers for a new targeted assay using a novel approach based on their maximal joint association with measured GFR (mGFR) and with flexibility to consider their biological properties. We analyzed metabolites measured in seven diverse studies encompasing 2,851 participants on the Metabolon H4 platform that had Pearson correlations with log mGFR and used a stepwise approach to develop models to < -0.5 estimate mGFR with and without inclusion of creatinine that enabled selection of candidate markers. In total, 456 identified metabolites were present in all studies, and 36 had correlations with mGFR < -0.5. A total of 2,225 models were developed that included these metabolites; all with lower root mean square errors and smaller coefficients for demographic variables compared to estimates using untargeted creatinine. Seventeen metabolites were chosen, including 12 new candidate filtration markers. The selected metabolites had strong associations with mGFR and little dependence on demographic factors. Candidate metabolites were identified with maximal joint association with mGFR and minimal dependence on demographic variables across many varied clinical settings. These metabolites are excreted in urine and represent diverse metabolic pathways and tubular handling. Thus, our data can be used to select metabolites for a multi-analyte eGFR determination assay using mass spectrometry that potentially offers better accuracy and is less prone to non-GFR determinants than the current eGFR biomarkers.

Proteomic profiling identifies novel proteins for genetic risk of severe COVID-19: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified six genetic variants associated with severe COVID-19, yet the mechanisms through which they may affect disease remains unclear. We investigated proteomic signatures related to COVID-19 risk variants rs657152 (ABO), rs10735079 (OAS1/OAS2/OAS3), rs2109069 (DPP9), rs74956615 (TYK2), rs2236757 (IFNAR2) and rs11385942 (SLC6A20/LZTFL1/CCR9/FYCO1/CXCR6/XCR1) as well as their corresponding downstream pathways that may promote severe COVID-19 in risk allele carriers and their potential relevancies to other infection outcomes. METHODS: A DNA aptamer-based array measured 4870 plasma proteins among 11 471 participants. Linear regression estimated associations between the COVID-19 risk variants and proteins with correction for multiple comparisons, and canonical pathway analysis was conducted. Cox regression assessed associations between proteins identified in the main analysis and risk of incident hospitalized respiratory infections (2570 events) over a 20.7-year follow-up. RESULTS: The ABO variant rs657152 was associated with 84 proteins in 7241 white participants with 24 replicated in 1671 Black participants. The TYK2 variant rs74956615 was associated with ICAM-1 and -5 in white participants with ICAM-5 replicated in Black participants. Of the 84 proteins identified in the main analysis, seven were significantly associated with incident hospitalized respiratory infections including Ephrin type-A receptor 4 (hazard ratio (HR): 0.87; P = 2.3 × 10-11) and von Willebrand factor type A (HR: 1.17; P = 1.6x10-13). CONCLUSIONS: Novel proteomics signatures and pathways for COVID-19-related risk variants TYK2 and ABO were identified. A subset of these proteins predicted greater risk of incident hospitalized pneumonia and respiratory infections. Further studies to examine these proteins in COVID-19 patients are warranted.

Hearing intervention versus health education control to reduce cognitive decline in older adults with hearing loss in the USA (ACHIEVE): a multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Hearing loss is associated with increased cognitive decline and incident dementia in older adults. We aimed to investigate whether a hearing intervention could reduce cognitive decline in cognitively healthy older adults with hearing loss. METHODS: The ACHIEVE study is a multicentre, parallel-group, unmasked, randomised controlled trial of adults aged 70-84 years with untreated hearing loss and without substantial cognitive impairment that took place at four community study sites across the USA. Participants were recruited from two study populations at each site: (1) older adults participating in a long-standing observational study of cardiovascular health (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study), and (2) healthy de novo community volunteers. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to a hearing intervention (audiological counselling and provision of hearing aids) or a control intervention of health education (individual sessions with a health educator covering topics on chronic disease prevention) and followed up every 6 months. The primary endpoint was 3-year change in a global cognition standardised factor score from a comprehensive neurocognitive battery. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03243422. FINDINGS: From Nov 9, 2017, to Oct 25, 2019, we screened 3004 participants for eligibility and randomly assigned 977 (32·5%; 238 [24%] from ARIC and 739 [76%] de novo). We randomly assigned 490 (50%) to the hearing intervention and 487 (50%) to the health education control. The cohort had a mean age of 76·8 years (SD 4·0), 523 (54%) were female, 454 (46%) were male, and most were White (n=858 [88%]). Participants from ARIC were older, had more risk factors for cognitive decline, and had lower baseline cognitive scores than those in the de novo cohort. In the primary analysis combining the ARIC and de novo cohorts, 3-year cognitive change (in SD units) was not significantly different between the hearing intervention and health education control groups (-0·200 [95% CI -0·256 to -0·144] in the hearing intervention group and -0·202 [-0·258 to -0·145] in the control group; difference 0·002 [-0·077 to 0·081]; p=0·96). However, a prespecified sensitivity analysis showed a significant difference in the effect of the hearing intervention on 3-year cognitive change between the ARIC and de novo cohorts (pinteraction=0·010). Other prespecified sensitivity analyses that varied analytical parameters used in the total cohort did not change the observed results. No significant adverse events attributed to the study were reported with either the hearing intervention or health education control. INTERPRETATION: The hearing intervention did not reduce 3-year cognitive decline in the primary analysis of the total cohort. However, a prespecified sensitivity analysis showed that the effect differed between the two study populations that comprised the cohort. These findings suggest that a hearing intervention might reduce cognitive change over 3 years in populations of older adults at increased risk for cognitive decline but not in populations at decreased risk for cognitive decline. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.

Trends in Diabetes Treatment and Control in U.S. Adults, 1999-2018.

BACKGROUND: Documenting current trends in diabetes treatment and risk-factor control may inform public health policy and planning. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of data from adults with diabetes in the United States participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to assess national trends in diabetes treatment and risk-factor control from 1999 through 2018. RESULTS: Diabetes control improved from 1999 to the early 2010s among the participants but subsequently stalled and declined. Between the 2007-2010 period and the 2015-2018 period, the percentage of adult NHANES participants with diabetes in whom glycemic control (glycated hemoglobin level, <7%) was achieved declined from 57.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.9 to 61.8) to 50.5% (95% CI, 45.8 to 55.3). After major improvements in lipid control (non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, <130 mg per deciliter) in the early 2000s, minimal improvement was seen from 2007-2010 (52.3%; 95% CI, 49.2 to 55.3) to 2015-2018 (55.7%; 95% CI, 50.8 to 60.5). From 2011-2014 to 2015-2018, the percentage of participants in whom blood-pressure control (<140/90 mm Hg) was achieved decreased from 74.2% (95% CI, 70.7 to 77.4) to 70.4% (95% CI, 66.7 to 73.8). The percentage of participants in whom all three targets were simultaneously achieved plateaued after 2010 and was 22.2% (95% CI, 17.9 to 27.3) in 2015-2018. The percentages of participants who used any glucose-lowering medication or any blood-pressure-lowering medication were unchanged after 2010, and the percentage who used statins plateaued after 2014. After 2010, the use of combination therapy declined in participants with uncontrolled blood pressure and plateaued for those with poor glycemic control. CONCLUSIONS: After more than a decade of progress from 1999 to the early 2010s, glycemic and blood-pressure control declined in adult NHANES participants with diabetes, while lipid control leveled off. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.).

New Creatinine- and Cystatin C-Based Equations to Estimate GFR without Race.

BACKGROUND: Current equations for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) that use serum creatinine or cystatin C incorporate age, sex, and race to estimate measured GFR. However, race in eGFR equations is a social and not a biologic construct. METHODS: We developed new eGFR equations without race using data from two development data sets: 10 studies (8254 participants, 31.5% Black) for serum creatinine and 13 studies (5352 participants, 39.7% Black) for both serum creatinine and cystatin C. In a validation data set of 12 studies (4050 participants, 14.3% Black), we compared the accuracy of new eGFR equations to measured GFR. We projected the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and GFR stages in a sample of U.S. adults, using current and new equations. RESULTS: In the validation data set, the current creatinine equation that uses age, sex, and race overestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.7 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 5.4) and to a lesser degree in non-Blacks (median, 0.5 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.9). When the adjustment for Black race was omitted from the current eGFR equation, measured GFR in Blacks was underestimated (median, 7.1 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 5.9 to 8.8). A new equation using age and sex and omitting race underestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.6 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 1.8 to 5.5) and overestimated measured GFR in non-Blacks (median, 3.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 3.4 to 4.4). For all equations, 85% or more of the eGFRs for Blacks and non-Blacks were within 30% of measured GFR. New creatinine-cystatin C equations without race were more accurate than new creatinine equations, with smaller differences between race groups. As compared with the current creatinine equation, the new creatinine equations, but not the new creatinine-cystatin C equations, increased population estimates of CKD prevalence among Blacks and yielded similar or lower prevalence among non-Blacks. CONCLUSIONS: New eGFR equations that incorporate creatinine and cystatin C but omit race are more accurate and led to smaller differences between Black participants and non-Black participants than new equations without race with either creatinine or cystatin C alone. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.).

Premorbid physical activity and prognosis after incident myocardial infarction: The atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

BACKGROUND: High to moderate levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with low risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, it is unclear whether the benefits of PA in midlife extend to cardiovascular health following myocardial infarction (MI) in later life. METHODS: Among 1,111 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants with incident MI during Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities follow-up (mean age 73 [SD 9] years at MI, 54% men, 21% Black), PA on average 11.9 (SD 6.9) years prior to incident MI (premorbid PA) was evaluated as the average score of PA between visit 1 (1987-1989) and visit 3 (1993-1995) using a modified Baecke questionnaire. Total and domain-specific PA (sport, nonsport leisure, and work PA) was analyzed for associations with composite and individual outcomes of mortality, recurrent MI, and stroke after index MI using multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.6 (IQI 1.0-10.5) years after incident MI, 823 participants (74%) developed a composite outcome. The 10-year cumulative incidence of the composite outcome was lower in the highest, as compared to the lowest tertile of premorbid total PA (56% vs. 70%, respectively). This association remained statistically significant even after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.80 [0.67-0.96] for the highest vs. lowest tertile). For individual outcomes, high premorbid total PA was associated with a low risk of recurrent MI (corresponding aHR 0.64 [0.44, 0.93]). When domain-specific PA was analyzed, similar results were seen for sport and work PA. The association was strongest in the first year following MI (e.g., aHR of composite outcome 0.66 [95% CI 0.47, 0.91] for the highest vs. lowest tertile of total PA). CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid PA was associated positively with post-MI cardiovascular health. Our results demonstrate the additional prognostic advantages of PA beyond reducing the risk of incident MI.

Self-Rated Health in Middle Age and Risk of Hospitalizations and Death: Recurrent Event Analysis of the ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Self-rated health is a simple measure that may identify individuals who are at a higher risk for hospitalization or death. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between a single measure of self-rated health and future risk of recurrent hospitalizations or death. PARTICIPANTS: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a community-based prospective cohort study of middle-aged men and women with follow-up beginning from 1987 to 1989. MAIN MEASURES: We quantified the associations between initial self-rated health with risk of recurrent hospitalizations and of death using a recurrent events survival model that allowed for dependency between the rates of hospitalization and hazards of death, adjusted for demographic and clinical factors. KEY RESULTS: Of the 14,937 ARIC cohort individuals with available self-rated health and covariate information, 34% of individuals reported "excellent" health, 47% "good," 16% "fair," and 3% "poor" at study baseline. After a median follow-up of 27.7 years, 1955 (39%), 3569 (51%), 1626 (67%), and 402 (83%) individuals with "excellent," "good," "fair," and "poor" health, respectively, had died. After adjusting for demographic factors and medical history, a less favorable self-rated health status was associated with increased rates of hospitalization and death. As compared to those reporting "excellent" health, adults with "good," "fair," and "poor" health had 1.22 (1.07 to 1.40), 2.01 (1.63 to 2.47), and 3.13 (2.39 to 4.09) times the rate of hospitalizations, respectively. The hazards of death also increased with worsening categories of self-rated health, with "good," "fair," and "poor" health individuals experiencing 1.30 (1.12 to 1.51), 2.15 (1.71 to 2.69), and 3.40 (2.54 to 4.56) times the hazard of death compared to "excellent," respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Even after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors, having a less favorable response on a single measure of self-rated health taken in middle age is a potent marker of future hospitalizations and death.

Association of Sevelamer Initiation with Gastrointestinal Bleeding Hospitalization in Individuals Requiring Hemodialysis.

Introduction Case reports have suggested a causative role between sevelamer use and subsequent gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), but no large observational studies have evaluated this association. Methods Using the United States Renal Data System database from 2015 to 2019, we examined the association between initiation of sevelamer (versus non-sevelamer containing phosphate binders) and GIB hospitalization as well as all-cause mortality among individuals on hemodialysis. We emulated a target trial using Cox regression models and inverse probability of treatment weights to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) across outcomes and subgroups. Results Among 21,354 new users of phosphate binders (11,276 sevelamer and 10,078 non-sevelamer) with baseline lab data (calcium, phosphorus, hemoglobin, and albumin), there were 2,811 GIB hospitalizations and 5,920 deaths after a median follow-up of 1.3 years. Compared with the initiation of non-sevelamer binders, sevelamer was not associated with an increased risk of GIB hospitalization (89 vs. 90 events per 1000 person-years; IPTW-HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.91 - 1.06) or all-cause mortality (220 vs. 224 events per 1000 person-years; IPTW-HR 0.98 95% CI 0.93 - 1.03). Subgroup analyses (such as diabetes and anti-coagulation use) were generally consistent, and there was no association between sevelamer dose and GIB hospitalization. Conclusion Among patients requiring hemodialysis, sevelamer (vs non-sevelamer) containing phosphate binders was not associated with increased risk of GIB hospitalization.

Proteome-wide analysis identifies plasma immune regulators of amyloid-beta progression.

While immune function is known to play a mechanistic role in Alzheimer's disease (AD), whether immune proteins in peripheral circulation influence the rate of amyloid-ß (Aß) progression - a central feature of AD - remains unknown. In the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, we quantified 942 immunological proteins in plasma and identified 32 (including CAT [catalase], CD36 [CD36 antigen], and KRT19 [keratin 19]) associated with rates of cortical Aß accumulation measured with positron emission tomography (PET). Longitudinal changes in a subset of candidate proteins also predicted Aß progression, and the mid- to late-life (20-year) trajectory of one protein, CAT, was associated with late-life Aß-positive status in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Genetic variation that influenced plasma levels of CAT, CD36 and KRT19 predicted rates of Aß accumulation, including causal relationships with Aß PET levels identified with two-sample Mendelian randomization. In addition to associations with tau PET and plasma AD biomarker changes, as well as expression patterns in human microglia subtypes and neurovascular cells in AD brain tissue, we showed that 31 % of candidate proteins were related to mid-life (20-year) or late-life (8-year) dementia risk in ARIC. Our findings reveal plasma proteins associated with longitudinal Aß accumulation, and identify specific peripheral immune mediators that may contribute to the progression of AD pathophysiology.

Timing of Cognitive Test Score Decline Prior to Incident Dementia Diagnosis in Blacks and Whites: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study.

INTRODUCTION: Commonly occurring dementias include those of Alzheimer's, vascular, and mixtures of these and other pathologies. They are believed to evolve over many years, but that time interval has been difficult to establish. Our objective was to determine how many years in advance of a dementia diagnosis cognitive scores begin to change. METHODS: 14,086 dementia-free ARIC participants underwent a cognitive exam at baseline visit 2 (1990-1992, mean age 57 ± 5.72), and 11,244 at visit 4 (1996-1998), 5,640 at visit 5 (2011-2013), and 3,574 at visit 6 (2016-2017) with surveillance for dementias of all-causes combined. Within 5-year intervals after each visit, we compared performance on the Delayed Word Recall Test (DWRT), the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST), the Word Fluency Test (WFT), and the combined mean of three cognitive tests at baseline in participants who were diagnosed with dementia within each interval versus those who survived the interval without a dementia diagnosis. Z-scores were adjusted for demographics and education in separate regression models for each visit. We plotted adjusted z-score means by time interval following each visit. RESULTS: During follow-up 3,334, 2,821, 1,218, and 329 dementia cases were ascertained after visits 2, 4, 5, and 6, respectively. Adjusted DWRT z-scores were significantly lower 20-25 years before dementia than those who did not experience dementia within 25 years. DSST z-scores were significantly lower at 25-30 years and 3-test combination z-scores were significantly lower as early as 30-31 years before onset. The difference between dementia and non-dementia group in the visit 2 3-test combination z-score was -0.20 at 30-31 years prior to dementia diagnosis. As expected, differences between the dementia and non-dementia groups increased closer to the time of dementia occurrence, up to their widest point at 0-5 years prior to dementia diagnosis. The difference between dementia and non-dementia groups in the visit 2 3-test combination z-score at 0-5 years was -0.90. WFT z-score differences were smaller than for the DSST or DWRT and began later. Patterns were similar in Black and White participants. CONCLUSION: DWRT, DSST, and combined 3-test z-scores were significantly lower more than 20 years prior to diagnosis in the dementia group versus the non-dementia group. Findings contribute to our knowledge of the long prodromal period in Blacks and Whites.

Accuracy of GFR estimating equations based on creatinine, cystatin C or both in routine care.

BACKGROUND: New equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate based on creatinine (eGFRcr), cystatin C (eGFRcys) or both (eGFRcr-cys) have been developed by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and the European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC). There is a need to evaluate the performance of these equations in diverse European settings to inform implementation decisions, especially among people with key comorbid conditions. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study including 6174 adults referred for single-point plasma clearance of iohexol in Stockholm, Sweden, with 9579 concurrent measurements of creatinine and cystatin C. We assessed the performance of the CKD-EPI 2009/2012/2021, EKFC 2021/2023, revised Lund-Malmö (RLM) 2011 and Caucasian, Asian, Pediatric and Adult (CAPA) 2014 equations against measured GFR (mGFR). RESULTS: Mean age was 56 years, median mGFR was 62 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 40% were female. Comorbid conditions were common: cardiovascular disease (30%), liver disease (28%), diabetes (26%) and cancer (26%). All eGFRcr-cys equations had small bias and P30 (the percentage of estimated values within 30% of mGFR) close to 90%, and performed better than eGFRcr or eGFRcys equations. Among eGFRcr equations, CKD-EPI 2009 and CKD-EPI 2021 showed larger bias and lower P30 than EKFC 2021 and RLM. There were no meaningful differences in performance across eGFRcys equations. Findings were consistent across comorbid conditions, and eGFRcr-cys equations showed good performance in patients with liver disease, cancer and heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, eGFRcr-cys equations performed best, with minimal variation among equations in this Swedish cohort. The lower performance of CKD-EPI eGFRcr equations compared with EKFC and RLM may reflect differences in population characteristics and mGFR methods. Implementing eGFRcr equations will require a trade-off between accuracy and uniformity across regions.

Plasma Metabolomics of Dietary Intake of Protein-Rich Foods and Kidney Disease Progression in Children.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence regarding the efficacy of a low-protein diet for patients with CKD is inconsistent and recommending a low-protein diet for pediatric patients is controversial. There is also a lack of objective biomarkers of dietary intake. The purpose of this study was to identify plasma metabolites associated with dietary intake of protein and to assess whether protein-related metabolites are associated with CKD progression. METHODS: Nontargeted metabolomics was conducted in plasma samples from 484 Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) participants. Multivariable linear regression estimated the cross-sectional association between 949 known, nondrug metabolites and dietary intake of total protein, animal protein, plant protein, chicken, dairy, nuts and beans, red and processed meat, fish, and eggs, adjusting for demographic, clinical, and dietary covariates. Cox proportional hazards models assessed the prospective association between protein-related metabolites and CKD progression defined as the initiation of kidney replacement therapy or 50% eGFR reduction, adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-seven (26%) children experienced CKD progression during 5 years of follow-up. Sixty metabolites were significantly associated with dietary protein intake. Among the 60 metabolites, 10 metabolites were significantly associated with CKD progression (animal protein: n = 1, dairy: n = 7, red and processed meat: n = 2, nuts and beans: n = 1), including one amino acid, one cofactor and vitamin, 4 lipids, 2 nucleotides, one peptide, and one xenobiotic. 1-(1-enyl-palmitoyl)-2-oleoyl-glycerophosphoethanolamine (GPE, P-16:0/18:1) was positively associated with dietary intake of red and processed meat, and a doubling of its abundance was associated with 88% higher risk of CKD progression. 3-ureidopropionate was inversely associated with dietary intake of red and processed meat, and a doubling of its abundance was associated with 48% lower risk of CKD progression. CONCLUSIONS: Untargeted plasma metabolomic profiling revealed metabolites associated with dietary intake of protein and CKD progression in a pediatric population.