Highly perturbed genes and hub genes associated with type 2 diabetes in different tissues of adult humans: a bioinformatics analytic workflow.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has a complex etiology which is not yet fully elucidated. The identification of gene perturbations and hub genes of T2D may deepen our understanding of its genetic basis. We aimed to identify highly perturbed genes and hub genes associated with T2D via an extensive bioinformatics analytic workflow consisting of five steps: systematic review of Gene Expression Omnibus and associated literature; identification and classification of differentially expressed genes (DEGs); identification of highly perturbed genes via meta-analysis; identification of hub genes via network analysis; and downstream analysis of highly perturbed genes and hub genes. Three meta-analytic strategies, random effects model, vote-counting approach, and p value combining approach, were applied. Hub genes were defined as those nodes having above-average betweenness, closeness, and degree in the network. Downstream analyses included gene ontologies, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways, metabolomics, COVID-19-related gene sets, and Genotype-Tissue Expression profiles. Analysis of 27 eligible microarrays identified 6284 DEGs (4592 downregulated and 1692 upregulated) in four tissue types. Tissue-specific gene expression was significantly greater than tissue non-specific (shared) gene expression. Analyses revealed 79 highly perturbed genes and 28 hub genes. Downstream analyses identified enrichments of shared genes with certain other diabetes phenotypes; insulin synthesis and action-related pathways and metabolomics; mechanistic associations with apoptosis and immunity-related pathways; COVID-19-related gene sets; and cell types demonstrating over- and under-expression of marker genes of T2D. Our approach provided valuable insights on T2D pathogenesis and pathophysiological manifestations. Broader utility of this pipeline beyond T2D is envisaged.

Comparison of machine learning and conventional logistic regression-based prediction models for gestational diabetes in an ethnically diverse population; the Monash GDM Machine learning model.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of pregnant women at high risk of developing gestational diabetes (GDM) is desirable as effective lifestyle interventions are available to prevent GDM and to reduce associated adverse outcomes. Personalised probability of developing GDM during pregnancy can be determined using a risk prediction model. These models extend from traditional statistics to machine learning methods; however, accuracy remains sub-optimal. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare multiple machine learning algorithms to develop GDM risk prediction models, then to determine the optimal model for predicting GDM. METHODS: A supervised machine learning predictive analysis was performed on data from routine antenatal care at a large health service network from January 2016 to June 2021. Predictor set 1 were sourced from the existing, internationally validated Monash GDM model: GDM history, body mass index, ethnicity, age, family history of diabetes, and past poor obstetric history. New models with different predictors were developed, considering statistical principles with inclusion of more robust continuous and derivative variables. A randomly selected 80% dataset was used for model development, with 20% for validation. Performance measures, including calibration and discrimination metrics, were assessed. Decision curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: Upon internal validation, the machine learning and logistic regression model's area under the curve (AUC) ranged from 71% to 93% across the different algorithms, with the best being the CatBoost Classifier (CBC). Based on the default cut-off point of 0.32, the performance of CBC on predictor set 4 was: Accuracy (85%), Precision (90%), Recall (78%), F1-score (84%), Sensitivity (81%), Specificity (90%), positive predictive value (92%), negative predictive value (78%), and Brier Score (0.39). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, machine learning approaches achieved the best predictive performance over traditional statistical methods, increasing from 75 to 93%. The CatBoost classifier method achieved the best with the model including continuous variables.

Temporal validation and updating of a prediction model for the diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus.

OBJECTIVE: The original Monash gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) risk prediction in early pregnancy model is internationally externally validated and clinically implemented. We temporally validate and update this model in a contemporary population with a universal screening context and revised diagnostic criteria and ethnicity categories, thereby improving model performance and generalizability. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The updating dataset comprised of routinely collected health data for singleton pregnancies delivered in Melbourne, Australia from 2016 to 2018. Model predictors included age, body mass index, ethnicity, diabetes family history, GDM history, and poor obstetric outcome history. Model updating methods were recalibration-in-the-large (Model A), intercept and slope re-estimation (Model B), and coefficient revision using logistic regression (Model C1, original ethnicity categories; Model C2, revised ethnicity categories). Analysis included 10-fold cross-validation, assessment of performance measures (c-statistic, calibration-in-the-large, calibration slope, and expected-observed ratio), and a closed-loop testing procedure to compare models' log-likelihood and akaike information criterion scores. RESULTS: In 26,474 singleton pregnancies (4,756, 18% with GDM), the original model demonstrated reasonable temporal validation (c-statistic = 0.698) but suboptimal calibration (expected-observed ratio = 0.485). Updated model C2 was preferred, with a high c-statistic (0.732) and significantly better performance in closed testing. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated updating methods to sustain predictive performance in a contemporary population, highlighting the value and versatility of prediction models for guiding risk-stratified GDM care.

Causality of anthropometric markers associated with polycystic ovarian syndrome: Findings of a Mendelian randomization study.

INTRODUCTION: Using body mass index (BMI) as a proxy, previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies found total causal effects of general obesity on polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). Hitherto, total and direct causal effects of general- and central obesity on PCOS have not been comprehensively analyzed. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the causality of central- and general obesity on PCOS using surrogate anthropometric markers. METHODS: Summary GWAS data of female-only, large-sample cohorts of European ancestry were retrieved for anthropometric markers of central obesity (waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR)) and general obesity (BMI and its constituent variables-weight and height), from the IEU Open GWAS Project. As the outcome, we acquired summary data from a large-sample GWAS (118870 samples; 642 cases and 118228 controls) within the FinnGen cohort. Total causal effects were assessed via univariable two-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR). Genetic architectures underlying causal associations were explored. Direct causal effects were analyzed by multivariable MR modelling. RESULTS: Instrumental variables demonstrated no weak instrument bias (F > 10). Four anthropometric exposures, namely, weight (2.69-77.05), BMI (OR: 2.90-4.06), WC (OR: 6.22-20.27), and HC (OR: 6.22-20.27) demonstrated total causal effects as per univariable 2SMR models. We uncovered shared and non-shared genetic architectures underlying causal associations. Direct causal effects of WC and HC on PCOS were revealed by two multivariable MR models containing exclusively the anthropometric markers of central obesity. Other multivariable MR models containing anthropometric markers of both central- and general obesity showed no direct causal effects on PCOS. CONCLUSIONS: Both and general- and central obesity yield total causal effects on PCOS. Findings also indicated potential direct causal effects of normal weight-central obesity and more complex causal mechanisms when both central- and general obesity are present. Results underscore the importance of addressing both central- and general obesity for optimizing PCOS care.

A data-driven biocomputing pipeline with meta-analysis on high throughput transcriptomics to identify genome-wide miRNA markers associated with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are sought-after biomarkers of complex, polygenic diseases such as type 2 diabetes (T2D). Data-driven biocomputing provides robust and novel avenues for synthesizing evidence from individual miRNA seq studies. OBJECTIVE: To identify miRNA markers associated with T2D, via a data-driven, biocomputing approach on high throughput transcriptomics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The pipeline consisted of five sequential steps using miRNA seq data retrieved from the National Center for Biotechnology Information Gene Expression Omnibus platform: systematic review; identification of differentially expressed miRNAs (DE-miRNAs); meta-analysis of DE-miRNAs; network analysis; and downstream analyses. Three normalization algorithms (trimmed mean of M-values; upper quartile; relative log expression) and two meta-analytic algorithms (robust rank aggregation; Fisher's method of p-value combining) were integrated into the pipeline. Network analysis was conducted on miRNet 2.0 while enrichment and over-representation analyses were conducted on miEAA 2.0. RESULTS: A total of 1256 DE-miRNAs (821 downregulated; 435 upregulated) were identified from 5 eligible miRNA seq datasets (3 circulatory; 1 adipose; 1 pancreatic). The meta-signature comprised 9 miRNAs (hsa-miR-15b-5p; hsa-miR-33b-5p; hsa-miR-106b-3p; hsa-miR-106b-5p; hsa-miR-146a-5p; hsa-miR-483-5p; hsa-miR-539-3p; hsa-miR-1260a; hsa-miR-4454), identified via the two meta-analysis approaches. Two hub nodes (hsa-miR-106b-5p; hsa-miR-15b-5p) with above-average degree and betweenness centralities in the miRNA-gene interactions network were identified. Downstream analyses revealed 5 highly conserved- (hsa-miR-33b-5p; hsa-miR-15b-5p; hsa-miR-106b-3p; hsa-miR-106b-5p; hsa-miR-146a-5p) and 7 highly confident- (hsa-miR-33b-5p; hsa-miR-15b-5p; hsa-miR-106b-3p; hsa-miR-106b-5p; hsa-miR-146a-5p; hsa-miR-483-5p; hsa-miR-539-3p) miRNAs. A total of 288 miRNA-disease associations were identified, in which 3 miRNAs (hsa-miR-15b-5p; hsa-miR-106b-3p; hsa-miR-146a-5p) were highly enriched. CONCLUSIONS: A meta-signature of DE-miRNAs associated with T2D was discovered via in-silico analyses and its pathobiological relevance was validated against corroboratory evidence from contemporary studies and downstream analyses. The miRNA meta-signature could be useful for guiding future studies on T2D. There may also be avenues for using the pipeline more broadly for evidence synthesis on other conditions using high throughput transcriptomics.

Use and performance of machine learning models for type 2 diabetes prediction in clinical and community care settings: Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictive modeling studies.

OBJECTIVE: Machine learning involves the use of algorithms without explicit instructions. Of late, machine learning models have been widely applied for the prediction of type 2 diabetes. However, no evidence synthesis of the performance of these prediction models of type 2 diabetes is available. We aim to identify machine learning prediction models for type 2 diabetes in clinical and community care settings and determine their predictive performance. METHODS: The systematic review of English language machine learning predictive modeling studies in 12 databases will be conducted. Studies predicting type 2 diabetes in predefined clinical or community settings are eligible. Standard CHARMS and TRIPOD guidelines will guide data extraction. Methodological quality will be assessed using a predefined risk of bias assessment tool. The extent of validation will be categorized by Reilly-Evans levels. Primary outcomes include model performance metrics of discrimination ability, calibration, and classification accuracy. Secondary outcomes include candidate predictors, algorithms used, level of validation, and intended use of models. The random-effects meta-analysis of c-indices will be performed to evaluate discrimination abilities. The c-indices will be pooled per prediction model, per model type, and per algorithm. Publication bias will be assessed through funnel plots and regression tests. Sensitivity analysis will be conducted to estimate the effects of study quality and missing data on primary outcome. The sources of heterogeneity will be assessed through meta-regression. Subgroup analyses will be performed for primary outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethics approval is required, as no primary or personal data are collected. Findings will be disseminated through scientific sessions and peer-reviewed journals. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019130886.

Nutritional markers of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in adults: Findings of a machine learning analysis with external validation and benchmarking.

OBJECTIVES: Using a nationally-representative, cross-sectional cohort, we examined nutritional markers of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in adults via machine learning. METHODS: A total of 16429 men and non-pregnant women ≥ 20 years of age were analysed from five consecutive cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Cohorts from years 2013-2016 (n = 6673) was used for external validation. Undiagnosed type 2 diabetes was determined by a negative response to the question "Have you ever been told by a doctor that you have diabetes?" and a positive glycaemic response to one or more of the three diagnostic tests (HbA1c > 6.4% or FPG >125 mg/dl or 2-hr post-OGTT glucose > 200mg/dl). Following comprehensive literature search, 114 potential nutritional markers were modelled with 13 behavioural and 12 socio-economic variables. We tested three machine learning algorithms on original and resampled training datasets built using three resampling methods. From this, the derived 12 predictive models were validated on internal- and external validation cohorts. Magnitudes of associations were gauged through odds ratios in logistic models and variable importance in others. Models were benchmarked against the ADA diabetes risk test. RESULTS: The prevalence of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes was 5.26%. Four best-performing models (AUROC range: 74.9%-75.7%) classified 39 markers of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes; 28 via one or more of the three best-performing non-linear/ensemble models and 11 uniquely by the logistic model. They comprised 14 nutrient-based, 12 anthropometry-based, 9 socio-behavioural, and 4 diet-associated markers. AUROC of all models were on a par with ADA diabetes risk test on both internal and external validation cohorts (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Models performed comparably to the chosen benchmark. Novel behavioural markers such as the number of meals not prepared from home were revealed. This approach may be useful in nutritional epidemiology to unravel new associations with type 2 diabetes.

Clinical notes as prognostic markers of mortality associated with diabetes mellitus following critical care: A retrospective cohort analysis using machine learning and unstructured big data.

BACKGROUND: Clinical notes are ubiquitous resources offering potential value in optimizing critical care via data mining technologies. OBJECTIVE: To determine the predictive value of clinical notes as prognostic markers of 1-year all-cause mortality among people with diabetes following critical care. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mortality of diabetes patients were predicted using three cohorts of clinical text in a critical care database, written by physicians (n = 45253), nurses (159027), and both (n = 204280). Natural language processing was used to pre-process text documents and LASSO-regularized logistic regression models were trained and tested. Confusion matrix metrics of each model were calculated and AUROC estimates between models were compared. All predictive words and corresponding coefficients were extracted. Outcome probability associated with each text document was estimated. RESULTS: Models built on clinical text of physicians, nurses, and the combined cohort predicted mortality with AUROC of 0.996, 0.893, and 0.922, respectively. Predictive performance of the models significantly differed from one another whereas inter-rater reliability ranged from substantial to almost perfect across them. Number of predictive words with non-zero coefficients were 3994, 8159, and 10579, respectively, in the models of physicians, nurses, and the combined cohort. Physicians' and nursing notes, both individually and when combined, strongly predicted 1-year all-cause mortality among people with diabetes following critical care. CONCLUSION: Clinical notes of physicians and nurses are strong and novel prognostic markers of diabetes-associated mortality in critical care, offering potentially generalizable and scalable applications. Clinical text-derived personalized risk estimates of prognostic outcomes such as mortality could be used to optimize patient care.

A combined strategy of feature selection and machine learning to identify predictors of prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of prediabetes using feature selection and machine learning on a nationally representative sample of the US population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed n = 6346 men and women enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2014. Prediabetes was defined using American Diabetes Association guidelines. The sample was randomly partitioned to training (n = 3174) and internal validation (n = 3172) sets. Feature selection algorithms were run on training data containing 156 preselected exposure variables. Four machine learning algorithms were applied on 46 exposure variables in original and resampled training datasets built using 4 resampling methods. Predictive models were tested on internal validation data (n = 3172) and external validation data (n = 3000) prepared from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2012. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Predictors were assessed by odds ratios in logistic models and variable importance in others. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) prediabetes screening tool was the benchmark to compare model performance. RESULTS: Prediabetes prevalence was 23.43%. The CDC prediabetes screening tool produced 64.40% AUROC. Seven optimal (≥ 70% AUROC) models identified 25 predictors including 4 potentially novel associations; 20 by both logistic and other nonlinear/ensemble models and 5 solely by the latter. All optimal models outperformed the CDC prediabetes screening tool (P < 0.05). DISCUSSION: Combined use of feature selection and machine learning increased predictive performance outperforming the recommended screening tool. A range of predictors of prediabetes was identified. CONCLUSION: This work demonstrated the value of combining feature selection with machine learning to identify a wide range of predictors that could enhance prediabetes prediction and clinical decision-making.