Drug-resistant bacterial infections: We need urgent action and investment that focus on the weakest link.

Despite high mortality and morbidity, drug-resistant bacterial infections remain the forgotten pandemic. We argue for strengthening of diagnostics, WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) and infection prevention and control to reduce drug-resistant infections, as an integral part of sustainable high-quality health services, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

A Bayesian approach for estimating typhoid fever incidence from large-scale facility-based passive surveillance data.

Decisions about typhoid fever prevention and control are based on estimates of typhoid incidence and their uncertainty. Lack of specific clinical diagnostic criteria, poorly sensitive diagnostic tests, and scarcity of accurate and complete datasets contribute to difficulties in calculating age-specific population-level typhoid incidence. Using data from the Strategic Typhoid Alliance across Africa and Asia program, we integrated demographic censuses, healthcare utilization surveys, facility-based surveillance, and serological surveillance from Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh to account for under-detection of cases. We developed a Bayesian approach that adjusts the count of reported blood-culture-positive cases for blood culture detection, blood culture collection, and healthcare seeking-and how these factors vary by age-while combining information from prior published studies. We validated the model using simulated data. The ratio of observed to adjusted incidence rates was 7.7 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 6.0-12.4) in Malawi, 14.4 (95% CrI: 9.3-24.9) in Nepal, and 7.0 (95% CrI: 5.6-9.2) in Bangladesh. The probability of blood culture collection led to the largest adjustment in Malawi, while the probability of seeking healthcare contributed the most in Nepal and Bangladesh; adjustment factors varied by age. Adjusted incidence rates were within or below the seroincidence rate limits of typhoid infection. Estimates of blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever without these adjustments results in considerable underestimation of the true incidence of typhoid fever. Our approach allows each phase of the reporting process to be synthesized to estimate the adjusted incidence of typhoid fever while correctly characterizing uncertainty, which can inform decision-making for typhoid prevention and control.

The Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP), Severe Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa (SETA), Surveillance of Enteric Fever in India (SEFI), and Strategic Typhoid Alliance Across Africa and Asia (STRATAA) Population-based Enteric Fever Studies: A Review of Methodological Similarities and Differences.

Building on previous multicountry surveillance studies of typhoid and others salmonelloses such as the Diseases of the Most Impoverished program and the Typhoid Surveillance in Africa Project, several ongoing blood culture surveillance studies are generating important data about incidence, severity, transmission, and clinical features of invasive Salmonella infections in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. These studies are also characterizing drug resistance patterns in their respective study sites. Each study answers a different set of research questions and employs slightly different methodologies, and the geographies under surveillance differ in size, population density, physician practices, access to healthcare facilities, and access to microbiologically safe water and improved sanitation. These differences in part reflect the heterogeneity of the epidemiology of invasive salmonellosis globally, and thus enable generation of data that are useful to policymakers in decision-making for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs). Moreover, each study is evaluating the large-scale deployment of TCVs, and may ultimately be used to assess post-introduction vaccine impact. The data generated by these studies will also be used to refine global disease burden estimates. It is important to ensure that lessons learned from these studies not only inform vaccination policy, but also are incorporated into sustainable, low-cost, integrated vaccine-preventable disease surveillance systems.

Drug-resistant enteric fever worldwide, 1990 to 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an increasing threat to global health. There are > 14 million cases of enteric fever every year and > 135,000 deaths. The disease is primarily controlled by antimicrobial treatment, but this is becoming increasingly difficult due to AMR. Our objectives were to assess the prevalence and geographic distribution of AMR in Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A infections globally, to evaluate the extent of the problem, and to facilitate the creation of geospatial maps of AMR prevalence to help targeted public health intervention. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of the literature by searching seven databases for studies published between 1990 and 2018. We recategorised isolates to allow the analysis of fluoroquinolone resistance trends over the study period. The prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS) in individual studies was illustrated by forest plots, and a random effects meta-analysis was performed, stratified by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) region and 5-year time period. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistics. We present a descriptive analysis of ceftriaxone and azithromycin resistance. FINDINGS: We identified 4557 articles, of which 384, comprising 124,347 isolates (94,616 S. Typhi and 29,731 S. Paratyphi A) met the pre-specified inclusion criteria. The majority (276/384; 72%) of studies were from South Asia; 40 (10%) articles were identified from Sub-Saharan Africa. With the exception of MDR S. Typhi in South Asia, which declined between 1990 and 2018, and MDR S. Paratyphi A, which remained at low levels, resistance trends worsened for all antimicrobials in all regions. We identified several data gaps in Africa and the Middle East. Incomplete reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) and lack of quality assurance were identified. INTERPRETATION: Drug-resistant enteric fever is widespread in low- and middle-income countries, and the situation is worsening. It is essential that public health and clinical measures, which include improvements in water quality and sanitation, the deployment of S. Typhi vaccination, and an informed choice of treatment are implemented. However, there is no licenced vaccine for S. Paratyphi A. The standardised reporting of AST data and rollout of external quality control assessment are urgently needed to facilitate evidence-based policy and practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018029432.

Microbiology Investigation Criteria for Reporting Objectively (MICRO): a framework for the reporting and interpretation of clinical microbiology data.

BACKGROUND: There is a pressing need to understand better the extent and distribution of antimicrobial resistance on a global scale, to inform development of effective interventions. Collation of datasets for meta-analysis, mathematical modelling and temporo-spatial analysis is hampered by the considerable variability in clinical sampling, variable quality in laboratory practice and inconsistencies in antimicrobial susceptibility testing and reporting. METHODS: The Microbiology Investigation Criteria for Reporting Objectively (MICRO) checklist was developed by an international working group of clinical and laboratory microbiologists, infectious disease physicians, epidemiologists and mathematical modellers. RESULTS: In keeping with the STROBE checklist, but applicable to all study designs, MICRO defines items to be included in reports of studies involving human clinical microbiology data. It provides a concise and comprehensive reference for clinicians, researchers, reviewers and journals working on, critically appraising, and publishing clinical microbiology datasets. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the MICRO checklist will enhance the quality and scientific reporting of clinical microbiology data, increasing data utility and comparability to improve surveillance, grade data quality, facilitate meta-analyses and inform policy and interventions from local to global levels.

Measuring and mapping the global burden of antimicrobial resistance.

The increasing number and global distribution of pathogens resistant to antimicrobial drugs is potentially one of the greatest threats to global health, leading to health crises arising from infections that were once easy to treat. Infections resistant to antimicrobial treatment frequently result in longer hospital stays, higher medical costs, and increased mortality. Despite the long-standing recognition of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) across many settings, there is surprisingly poor information about its geographical distribution over time and trends in its population prevalence and incidence. This makes reliable assessments of the health burden attributable to AMR difficult, weakening the evidence base to drive forward research and policy agendas to combat AMR. The inclusion of mortality and morbidity data related to drug-resistant infections into the annual Global Burden of Disease Study should help fill this policy void.

Treatment Response in Enteric Fever in an Era of Increasing Antimicrobial Resistance: An Individual Patient Data Analysis of 2092 Participants Enrolled into 4 Randomized, Controlled Trials in Nepal.

BACKGROUND.: Enteric fever, caused by Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A, is the leading cause of bacterial febrile disease in South Asia. METHODS.: Individual data from 2092 patients with enteric fever randomized into 4 trials in Kathmandu, Nepal, were pooled. All trials compared gatifloxacin with 1 of the following comparator drugs: cefixime, chloramphenicol, ofloxacin, or ceftriaxone. Treatment outcomes were evaluated according to antimicrobial if S. Typhi/Paratyphi were isolated from blood. We additionally investigated the impact of changing bacterial antimicrobial susceptibility on outcome. RESULTS.: Overall, 855 (41%) patients had either S. Typhi (n = 581, 28%) or S. Paratyphi A (n = 274, 13%) cultured from blood. There were 139 (6.6%) treatment failures with 1 death. Except for the last trial with ceftriaxone, the fluoroquinolone gatifloxacin was associated with equivalent or better fever clearance times and lower treatment failure rates in comparison to all other antimicrobials. However, we additionally found that the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) against fluoroquinolones have risen significantly since 2005 and were associated with increasing fever clearance times. Notably, all organisms were susceptible to ceftriaxone throughout the study period (2005-2014), and the MICs against azithromycin declined, confirming the utility of these alternative drugs for enteric fever treatment. CONCLUSION.: The World Health Organization and local government health ministries in South Asia still recommend fluoroquinolones for enteric fever. This policy should change based on the evidence provided here. Rapid diagnostics are urgently required given the large numbers of suspected enteric fever patients with a negative culture.

K13 Propeller Mutations in Plasmodium falciparum Populations in Regions of Malaria Endemicity in Vietnam from 2009 to 2016.

The spread of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum compromises the therapeutic efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) and is considered the greatest threat to current global initiatives to control and eliminate malaria. This is particularly relevant in Vietnam, where dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is the recommended ACT for P. falciparum infection. The propeller domain gene of K13, a molecular marker of artemisinin resistance, was successfully sequenced in 1,060 P. falciparum isolates collected at 3 malaria hot spots in Vietnam between 2009 and 2016. Eight K13 propeller mutations (Thr474Ile, Tyr493His, Arg539Thr, Ile543Thr, Pro553Leu, Val568Gly, Pro574Leu, and Cys580Tyr), including several that have been validated to be artemisinin resistance markers, were found. The prevalences of K13 mutations were 29% (222/767), 6% (11/188), and 43% (45/105) in the Binh Phuoc, Ninh Thuan, and Gia Lai Provinces of Vietnam, respectively. Cys580Tyr became the dominant genotype in recent years, with 79.1% (34/43) of isolates in Binh Phuoc Province and 63% (17/27) of isolates in Gia Lai Province carrying this mutation. K13 mutations were associated with reduced ring-stage susceptibility to dihydroartemisinin (DHA) in vitro and prolonged parasite clearance in vivo An analysis of haplotypes flanking K13 suggested the presence of multiple strains with the Cys580Tyr mutation rather than a single strain expanding across the three sites.

Clinically and microbiologically derived azithromycin susceptibility breakpoints for Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A.

Azithromycin is an effective treatment for uncomplicated infections with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi and serovar Paratyphi A (enteric fever), but there are no clinically validated MIC and disk zone size interpretative guidelines. We studied individual patient data from three randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of antimicrobial treatment in enteric fever in Vietnam, with azithromycin used in one treatment arm, to determine the relationship between azithromycin treatment response and the azithromycin MIC of the infecting isolate. We additionally compared the azithromycin MIC and the disk susceptibility zone sizes of 1,640 S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A clinical isolates collected from seven Asian countries. In the RCTs, 214 patients who were treated with azithromycin at a dose of 10 to 20 mg/ml for 5 to 7 days were analyzed. Treatment was successful in 195 of 214 (91%) patients, with no significant difference in response (cure rate, fever clearance time) with MICs ranging from 4 to 16 µg/ml. The proportion of Asian enteric fever isolates with an MIC of ≤ 16 µg/ml was 1,452/1,460 (99.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 98.9 to 99.7) for S. Typhi and 207/240 (86.3%; 95% CI, 81.2 to 90.3) (P < 0.001) for S. Paratyphi A. A zone size of ≥ 13 mm to a 5-µg azithromycin disk identified S. Typhi isolates with an MIC of ≤ 16 µg/ml with a sensitivity of 99.7%. An azithromycin MIC of ≤ 16 µg/ml or disk inhibition zone size of ≥ 13 mm enabled the detection of susceptible S. Typhi isolates that respond to azithromycin treatment. Further work is needed to define the response to treatment in S. Typhi isolates with an azithromycin MIC of >16 µg/ml and to determine MIC and disk breakpoints for S. Paratyphi A.

A retrospective investigation of the population structure and geospatial distribution of Salmonella Paratyphi A in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Salmonella Paratyphi A, one of the major etiologic agents of enteric fever, has increased in prevalence in recent decades in certain endemic regions in comparison to S. Typhi, the most prevalent cause of enteric fever. Despite this increase, data on the prevalence and molecular epidemiology of S. Paratyphi A remain generally scarce. Here, we analysed the whole genome sequences of 216 S. Paratyphi A isolates originating from Kathmandu, Nepal between 2005 and 2014, of which 200 were from patients with acute enteric fever and 16 from the gallbladder of people with suspected chronic carriage. By exploiting the recently developed genotyping framework for S. Paratyphi A (Paratype), we identified several genotypes circulating in Kathmandu. Notably, we observed an unusual clonal expansion of genotype 2.4.3 over a four-year period that spread geographically and systematically replaced other genotypes. This rapid genotype replacement is hypothesised to have been driven by both reduced susceptibility to fluoroquinolones and genetic changes to virulence factors, such as functional and structural genes encoding the type 3 secretion systems. Finally, we show that person-to-person is likely the most common mode of transmission and chronic carriers seem to play a limited role in maintaining disease circulation.

Mapping the incidence rate of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: With more than 1.2 million illnesses and 29,000 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, typhoid fever continues to be a major public health problem. Effective control of the disease would benefit from an understanding of the subnational geospatial distribution of the disease incidence. METHOD: We collated records of the incidence rate of typhoid fever confirmed by culture of blood in Africa from 2000 to 2022. We estimated the typhoid incidence rate for sub-Saharan Africa on 20 km × 20 km grids by exploring the association with geospatial covariates representing access to improved water and sanitation, health conditions of the population, and environmental conditions. RESULTS: We identified six published articles and one pre-print representing incidence rate estimates in 22 sites in 2000-2022. Estimated incidence rates showed geospatial variation at sub-national, national, and regional levels. The incidence rate was high in Western and Eastern African subregions followed by Southern and Middle African subregions. By age, the incidence rate was highest among 5-14 yo followed by 2-4 yo, > 14 yo, and 0-1 yo. When aggregated across all age classes and grids that comprise each country, predicted incidence rates ranged from 43.7 (95% confidence interval: 0.6 to 591.2) in Zimbabwe to 2,957.8 (95% CI: 20.8 to 4,245.2) in South Sudan per 100,000 person-years. Sub-national heterogeneity was evident with the coefficient of variation at the 20 km × 20 km grid-level ranging from 0.7 to 3.3 and was generally lower in high-incidence countries and widely varying in low-incidence countries. CONCLUSION: Our study provides estimates of 20 km × 20 km incidence rate of typhoid fever across sub-Saharan Africa based on data collected from 2000 through 2020. Increased understanding of the subnational geospatial variation of typhoid fever in Africa may inform more effective intervention programs by better targeting resources to heterogeneously disturbed disease risk.

Genetic marker suitable for identification and genotyping of Plasmodium ovale curtisi and Plasmodium ovale wallikeri.

We present a seminested PCR method that specifically discriminates between Plasmodium ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri with high sensitivity. The test is based on species-specific amplification of a size-polymorphic fragment of the tryptophan-rich antigen gene, potra, which also permits discrimination of intraspecific sequence variants at this locus.

The uncertain role of substandard and falsified medicines in the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance.

Approximately 10% of antimicrobials used by humans in low- and middle-income countries are estimated to be substandard or falsified. In addition to their negative impact on morbidity and mortality, they may also be important drivers of antimicrobial resistance. Despite such concerns, our understanding of this relationship remains rudimentary. Substandard and falsified medicines have the potential to either increase or decrease levels of resistance, and here we discuss a range of mechanisms that could drive these changes. Understanding these effects and their relative importance will require an improved understanding of how different drug exposures affect the emergence and spread of resistance and of how the percentage of active pharmaceutical ingredients in substandard and falsified medicines is temporally and spatially distributed.

Direct inference and control of genetic population structure from RNA sequencing data.

RNAseq data can be used to infer genetic variants, yet its use for estimating genetic population structure remains underexplored. Here, we construct a freely available computational tool (RGStraP) to estimate RNAseq-based genetic principal components (RG-PCs) and assess whether RG-PCs can be used to control for population structure in gene expression analyses. Using whole blood samples from understudied Nepalese populations and the Geuvadis study, we show that RG-PCs had comparable results to paired array-based genotypes, with high genotype concordance and high correlations of genetic principal components, capturing subpopulations within the dataset. In differential gene expression analysis, we found that inclusion of RG-PCs as covariates reduced test statistic inflation. Our paper demonstrates that genetic population structure can be directly inferred and controlled for using RNAseq data, thus facilitating improved retrospective and future analyses of transcriptomic data.

Global diversity and antimicrobial resistance of typhoid fever pathogens: Insights from a meta-analysis of 13,000 Salmonella Typhi genomes.

Background: The Global Typhoid Genomics Consortium was established to bring together the typhoid research community to aggregate and analyse Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (Typhi) genomic data to inform public health action. This analysis, which marks 22 years since the publication of the first Typhi genome, represents the largest Typhi genome sequence collection to date (n=13,000). Methods: This is a meta-analysis of global genotype and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) determinants extracted from previously sequenced genome data and analysed using consistent methods implemented in open analysis platforms GenoTyphi and Pathogenwatch. Results: Compared with previous global snapshots, the data highlight that genotype 4.3.1 (H58) has not spread beyond Asia and Eastern/Southern Africa; in other regions, distinct genotypes dominate and have independently evolved AMR. Data gaps remain in many parts of the world, and we show the potential of travel-associated sequences to provide informal 'sentinel' surveillance for such locations. The data indicate that ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility (>1 resistance determinant) is widespread across geographies and genotypes, with high-level ciprofloxacin resistance (≥3 determinants) reaching 20% prevalence in South Asia. Extensively drug-resistant (XDR) typhoid has become dominant in Pakistan (70% in 2020) but has not yet become established elsewhere. Ceftriaxone resistance has emerged in eight non-XDR genotypes, including a ciprofloxacin-resistant lineage (4.3.1.2.1) in India. Azithromycin resistance mutations were detected at low prevalence in South Asia, including in two common ciprofloxacin-resistant genotypes. Conclusions: The consortium's aim is to encourage continued data sharing and collaboration to monitor the emergence and global spread of AMR Typhi, and to inform decision-making around the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) and other prevention and control strategies. Funding: No specific funding was awarded for this meta-analysis. Coordinators were supported by fellowships from the European Union (ZAD received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 845681), the Wellcome Trust (SB, Wellcome Trust Senior Fellowship), and the National Health and Medical Research Council (DJI is supported by an NHMRC Investigator Grant [GNT1195210]).

Salmonella Typhi (Typhi) is a type of bacteria that causes typhoid fever. More than 110,000 people die from this disease each year, predominantly in areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia with limited access to safe water and sanitation. Clinicians use antibiotics to treat typhoid fever, but scientists worry that the spread of antimicrobial-resistant Typhi could render the drugs ineffective, leading to increased typhoid fever mortality. The World Health Organization has prequalified two vaccines that are highly effective in preventing typhoid fever and may also help limit the emergence and spread of resistant Typhi. In low resource settings, public health officials must make difficult trade-off decisions about which new vaccines to introduce into already crowded immunization schedules. Understanding the local burden of antimicrobial-resistant Typhi and how it is spreading could help inform their actions. The Global Typhoid Genomics Consortium analyzed 13,000 Typhi genomes from 110 countries to provide a global overview of genetic diversity and antimicrobial-resistant patterns. The analysis showed great genetic diversity of the different strains between countries and regions. For example, the H58 Typhi variant, which is often drug-resistant, has spread rapidly through Asia and Eastern and Southern Africa, but is less common in other regions. However, distinct strains of other drug-resistant Typhi have emerged in other parts of the world. Resistance to the antibiotic ciprofloxacin was widespread and accounted for over 85% of cases in South Africa. Around 70% of Typhi from Pakistan were extensively drug-resistant in 2020, but these hard-to-treat variants have not yet become established elsewhere. Variants that are resistant to both ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone have been identified, and azithromycin resistance has also appeared in several different variants across South Asia. The Consortium's analyses provide valuable insights into the global distribution and transmission patterns of drug-resistant Typhi. Limited genetic data were available fromseveral regions, but data from travel-associated cases helped fill some regional gaps. These findings may help serve as a starting point for collective sharing and analyses of genetic data to inform local public health action. Funders need to provide ongoing supportto help fill global surveillance data gaps.

Pf7: an open dataset of Plasmodium falciparum genome variation in 20,000 worldwide samples.

We describe the MalariaGEN Pf7 data resource, the seventh release of Plasmodium falciparum genome variation data from the MalariaGEN network.  It comprises over 20,000 samples from 82 partner studies in 33 countries, including several malaria endemic regions that were previously underrepresented.  For the first time we include dried blood spot samples that were sequenced after selective whole genome amplification, necessitating new methods to genotype copy number variations.  We identify a large number of newly emerging crt mutations in parts of Southeast Asia, and show examples of heterogeneities in patterns of drug resistance within Africa and within the Indian subcontinent.  We describe the profile of variations in the C-terminal of the csp gene and relate this to the sequence used in the RTS,S and R21 malaria vaccines.  Pf7 provides high-quality data on genotype calls for 6 million SNPs and short indels, analysis of large deletions that cause failure of rapid diagnostic tests, and systematic characterisation of six major drug resistance loci, all of which can be freely downloaded from the MalariaGEN website.

In vivo susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum to artesunate in Binh Phuoc Province, Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: By 2009, there were worrying signs from western Cambodia that parasitological responses to artesunate-containing treatment regimens for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were slower than elsewhere which suggested the emergence of artemisinin resistance. Vietnam shares a long land border with Cambodia with a large number of migrants crossing it on a daily basis. Therefore, there is an urgent need to investigate whether there is any evidence of a change in the parasitological response to the artemisinin derivatives in Vietnam. METHODS: From August 2010 to May 2011, a randomized controlled clinical trial in uncomplicated falciparum malaria was conducted to compare two doses of artesunate (AS) (2mg/kg/day versus 4 mg/kg/day for three days) followed by dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ) and a control arm of DHA-PPQ. The goal was characterization of the current efficacy of artesunate in southern Vietnam. The primary endpoint of this study was the parasite clearance half-life; secondary endpoints included the parasite reduction ratios at 24 and 48 hours and the parasite clearance time. RESULTS: 166 patients were recruited into the study. The median parasite clearance half-lives were 3.54 (AS 2mg/kg), 2.72 (AS 4mg/kg), and 2.98 hours (DHA-PPQ) (p=0.19). The median parasite-reduction ratio at 24 hours was 48 in the AS 2mg/kg group compared with 212 and 113 in the other two groups, respectively (p=0.02). The proportions of patients with a parasite clearance time of >72 hours for AS 2mg/kg, AS 4mg/kg and DHA-PPQ were 27%, 27%, and 22%, respectively. Early treatment failure occurred in two (4%) and late clinical failure occurred in one (2%) of the 55 patients in the AS 2mg/kg group, as compared with none in the other two study arms. The PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (APCR) rates in the three groups were 94%, 100%, and 100% (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated faster P. falciparum parasite clearance in southern Vietnam than in western Cambodia but slower clearance in comparison with historical data from Vietnam. Further studies to determine whether this represents the emergence of artemisinin resistance in this area are needed. Currently, the therapeutic response to DHA-PPQ remains satisfactory in southern Vietnam. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NTC01165372.

Transcriptional response in the peripheral blood of patients infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi.

We used microarrays and transcriptional profiling of peripheral blood to investigate the host response of 29 individuals who contracted typhoid fever in the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam. Samples were taken over a nine month period encompassing acute disease, convalescence, and recovery. We found that typhoid fever induced a distinct and highly reproducible signature in the peripheral blood that changed during treatment and convalescence, returning in the majority of cases to the "normal" profile as measured in healthy uninfected controls. Unexpectedly, there was a strong, distinct signature of convalescence present at day 9 after infection that remained virtually unchanged one month after acute infection and in some cases persisted as long as nine months despite a complete clinical recovery in all patients. Patients who retain the convalescent signature may be genetically or temporarily incapable of developing an effective immune response and may be more susceptible to reinfection, relapse, or the establishment of a carrier state.

Estimating the effect of vaccination on antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever in 73 countries supported by Gavi: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug resistance and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS) are major concerns for the epidemiology and treatment of typhoid fever. The 2018 prequalification of the first typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) by WHO provides an opportunity to limit the transmission and burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. METHODS: We combined output from mathematical models of typhoid transmission with estimates of antimicrobial resistance from meta-analyses to predict the burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever across 73 lower-income countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We considered FQNS and multidrug resistance separately. The effect of vaccination was predicted on the basis of forecasts of vaccine coverage. We explored how the potential effect of vaccination on the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance varied depending on key model parameters. FINDINGS: The introduction of routine immunisation with TCV at age 9 months with a catch-up campaign up to age 15 years was predicted to avert 46-74% of all typhoid fever cases in 73 countries eligible for Gavi support. Vaccination was predicted to reduce the relative prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever by 16% (95% prediction interval [PI] 0-49). TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign was predicted to avert 42·5 million (95% PI 24·8-62·8 million) cases and 506 000 (95% PI 187 000-1·9 million) deaths caused by FQNS typhoid fever, and 21·2 million (95% PI 16·4-26·5 million) cases and 342 000 (95% PI 135 000-1·5 million) deaths from multidrug-resistant typhoid fever over 10 years following introduction. INTERPRETATION: Our results indicate the benefits of prioritising TCV introduction for countries with a high avertable burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping local variation in household overcrowding across Africa from 2000 to 2018: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Household overcrowding is a serious public health threat associated with high morbidity and mortality. Rapid population growth and urbanisation contribute to overcrowding and poor sanitation in low-income and middle- income countries, and are risk factors for the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, and antimicrobial resistance. Many countries do not have adequate surveillance capacity to monitor household overcrowding. Geostatistical models are therefore useful tools for estimating household overcrowding. In this study, we aimed to estimate household overcrowding in Africa between 2000 and 2018 by combining available household survey data, population censuses, and other country-specific household surveys within a geostatistical framework. METHODS: We used data from household surveys and population censuses to generate a Bayesian geostatistical model of household overcrowding in Africa for the 19-year period between 2000 and 2018. Additional sociodemographic and health-related covariates informed the model, which covered 54 African countries. FINDINGS: We analysed 287 surveys and population censuses, covering 78 695 991 households. Spatial and temporal variability arose in household overcrowding estimates over time. In 2018, the highest overcrowding estimates were observed in the Horn of Africa region (median proportion 62% [IQR 57-63]); the lowest regional median proportion was estimated for the north of Africa region (16% [14-19]). Overall, 474·4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 250·1 million-740·7 million) people were estimated to be living in overcrowded conditions in Africa in 2018, a 62·7% increase from the estimated 291·5 million (180·8 million-417·3 million) people who lived in overcrowded conditions in the year 2000. 48·5% (229·9 million) of people living in overcrowded conditions came from six African countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya), with a combined population of 538·3 million people. INTERPRETATION: This study incorporated survey and population censuses data and used geostatistical modelling to estimate continent-wide overcrowding over a 19-year period. Our analysis identified countries and areas with high numbers of people living in overcrowded conditions, thereby providing a benchmark for policy planning and the implementation of interventions such as in infectious disease control. FUNDING: UK Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.