Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Cost-effectiveness of CT screening in the National Lung Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND: The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) showed that screening with low-dose computed tomography (CT) as compared with chest radiography reduced lung-cancer mortality. We examined the cost-effectiveness of screening with low-dose CT in the NLST. METHODS: We estimated mean life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs per person, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for three alternative strategies: screening with low-dose CT, screening with radiography, and no screening. Estimations of life-years were based on the number of observed deaths that occurred during the trial and the projected survival of persons who were alive at the end of the trial. Quality adjustments were derived from a subgroup of participants who were selected to complete quality-of-life surveys. Costs were based on utilization rates and Medicare reimbursements. We also performed analyses of subgroups defined according to age, sex, smoking history, and risk of lung cancer and performed sensitivity analyses based on several assumptions. RESULTS: As compared with no screening, screening with low-dose CT cost an additional $1,631 per person (95% confidence interval [CI], 1,557 to 1,709) and provided an additional 0.0316 life-years per person (95% CI, 0.0154 to 0.0478) and 0.0201 QALYs per person (95% CI, 0.0088 to 0.0314). The corresponding ICERs were $52,000 per life-year gained (95% CI, 34,000 to 106,000) and $81,000 per QALY gained (95% CI, 52,000 to 186,000). However, the ICERs varied widely in subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that screening for lung cancer with low-dose CT would cost $81,000 per QALY gained, but we also determined that modest changes in our assumptions would greatly alter this figure. The determination of whether screening outside the trial will be cost-effective will depend on how screening is implemented. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute; NLST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047385.).

Topsoil porosity prediction across habitats at large scales using environmental variables.

Soil porosity and its reciprocal bulk density are important environmental state variables that enable modelers to represent hydraulic function and carbon storage. Biotic effects and their 'dynamic' influence on such state variables remain largely unknown for larger scales and may result in important, yet poorly quantified environmental feedbacks. Existing representation of hydraulic function is often invariant to environmental change and may be poor in some systems, particularly non-arable soils. Here we assess predictors of total porosity across two comprehensive national topsoil (0-15 cm) data sets, covering the full range of soil organic matter (SOM) and habitats (n = 1385 & n = 2570), using generalized additive mixed models and machine learning. Novel aspects of this work include the testing of metrics on aggregate size and livestock density alongside a range of different particle size distribution metrics. We demonstrate that porosity trends in Great Britain are dominated by biotic metrics, soil carbon and land use. Incorporating these variables into porosity prediction improves performance, paving the way for new dynamic calculation of porosity using surrogate measures with remote sensing, which may help improve prediction in data sparse regions of the world. Moreover, dynamic calculation of porosity could support representation of feedbacks in environmental and Earth System Models. Representing the hydrological feedbacks from changes in structural porosity also requires data and models at appropriate spatial scales to capture conditions leading to near-saturated soil conditions. Classification. Environmental Sciences.

Sinks for nitrogen inputs in terrestrial ecosystems: a meta-analysis of 15N tracer field studies.

Effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to store carbon (C) depend in part on the amount of N retained in the system and its partitioning among plant and soil pools. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies at 48 sites across four continents that used enriched 15N isotope tracers in order to synthesize information about total ecosystem N retention (i.e., total ecosystem 15N recovery in plant and soil pools) across natural systems and N partitioning among ecosystem pools. The greatest recoveries of ecosystem 15N tracer occurred in shrublands (mean, 89.5%) and wetlands (84.8%) followed by forests (74.9%) and grasslands (51.8%). In the short term (< 1 week after 15N tracer application), total ecosystem 15N recovery was negatively correlated with fine-root and soil 15N natural abundance, and organic soil C and N concentration but was positively correlated with mean annual temperature and mineral soil C:N. In the longer term (3-18 months after 15N tracer application), total ecosystem 15N retention was negatively correlated with foliar natural-abundance 15N but was positively correlated with mineral soil C and N concentration and C:N, showing that plant and soil natural-abundance 15N and soil C:N are good indicators of total ecosystem N retention. Foliar N concentration was not significantly related to ecosystem 15N tracer recovery, suggesting that plant N status is not a good predictor of total ecosystem N retention. Because the largest ecosystem sinks for 15N tracer were below ground in forests, shrublands, and grasslands, we conclude that growth enhancement and potential for increased C storage in aboveground biomass from atmospheric N deposition is likely to be modest in these ecosystems. Total ecosystem 15N recovery decreased with N fertilization, with an apparent threshold fertilization rate of 46 kg N x ha(-1) x yr(-1) above which most ecosystems showed net losses of applied 15N tracer in response to N fertilizer addition.

Investigation of the expression and functional significance of the novel mouse sperm protein, a disintegrin and metalloprotease with thrombospondin type 1 motifs number 10 (ADAMTS10).

Fertilization represents the culmination of a series of complex interactions between male and female gametes. Despite advances in our understanding, the precise molecular mechanisms underlying these fundamental interactions remain largely uncharacterized. There is however growing recognition that this process requires the concerted action of multiple sperm receptors that possess affinity for complementary zona pellucida ligands and those that reside on the surface of the oolemma. Among the candidate sperm proteins that have been implicated in fertilization, those belonging to the ADAM (a disintegrin and metalloprotease) family of proteases have received considerable attention. The focus of the studies described herein has been the characterization of a closely related member of this protease family, ADAMTS10 (a disintegrin and metalloprotease with thrombospondin type 1 motifs number 10). We have demonstrated that ADAMTS10 is expressed during the later stages of mouse spermatogenesis and incorporated into the acrosomal domain of developing spermatids. During sperm maturation, the protein appears to be processed before being expressed on the surface of the peri-acrosomal region of the head. Our collective data suggest that, from this position, ADAMTS10 participates in sperm adhesion to the zona pellucida. Indeed, pre-incubation of capacitated spermatozoa with either galardin, a broad spectrum inhibitor of metalloprotease activity, or anti-ADAMTS10 antisera elicited a significant reduction in their ability to engage in zona adhesion. Overall, these studies support the notion that sperm-oocyte interactions involve considerable functional redundancy and identify ADAMTS10 as a novel candidate in the mediation of these fundamentally important events.

Measuring stock and change in the GB countryside for policy--key findings and developments from the Countryside Survey 2007 field survey.

Countryside Survey is a unique large scale long-term monitoring programme investigating stock and change of habitats, landscape features, vegetation, soil and freshwaters of Great Britain. Repeat field surveys combine policy and scientific objectives to provide evidence on how multiple aspects of the environment are changing over time, a key goal of international science in the face of profound human impacts on ecosystems. Countryside Survey 2007 (CS2007), the fifth survey since 1978, retained consistency with previous surveys, whilst evolving in line with technological and conceptual advances in the collection and integration of data to understand landscape change. This paper outlines approaches taken in the 2007 survey and its subsequent analysis and presents some of the headline results of the survey and their relevance for national and international policy objectives. Key changes between 1998 and 2007 included: a) significant shifts in agricultural land cover from arable to grassland, accompanied by increases in the area of broadleaved woodland, b) decreases in the length of managed hedges associated with agricultural land, as a proportion deteriorated to lines of trees and c) increases in the areas and numbers of wet habitats (standing open water, ponds) and species preferring wetter conditions (1998-2007 and 1978-2007). Despite international policy directed at maintaining and enhancing biodiversity, there were widespread decreases in species richness in all linear and area habitats, except on arable land, consistent with an increase in competitive and late successional species between 1998 and 2007 and 1978 and 2007. Late successional and competitive species: Stinging nettle (Urtica dioica), Hawthorn (Cratageous monogyna) and Bramble (Rubus fruticosus), in the top ten recorded species recorded in 2007, all increased between 1998 and 2007. The most commonly recorded species in CS (1990, 1998 and 2007) was agricultural Ryegrass (Lolium perenne). Increases in both water quality and soil pH were in line with policy aimed at addressing previous deterioration of both. Headwater streams broadly showed continued improvements in biological quality from 1998 to 2007, continuing trends seen since 1990. In soils, there were significant increases in soil pH between 1998 and 2007 consistent with recovery from acidification.

Multiple soil map comparison highlights challenges for predicting topsoil organic carbon concentration at national scale.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration is the fundamental indicator of soil health, underpinning food production and climate change mitigation. SOC storage is highly sensitive to several dynamic environmental drivers, with approximately one third of soils degraded and losing carbon worldwide. Digital soil mapping illuminates where hotspots of SOC storage occur and where losses to the atmosphere are most likely. Yet, attempts to map SOC often disagree. Here we compare national scale SOC concentration map products to reveal agreement of data in mineral soils, with progressively poorer agreement in organo-mineral and organic soils. Divergences in map predictions from each other and survey data widen in the high SOC content land types we stratified. Given the disparities are highest in carbon rich soils, efforts are required to reduce these uncertainties to increase confidence in mapping SOC storage and predicting where change may be important at national to global scales. Our map comparison results could be used to identify SOC risk where concentrations are high and should be conserved, and where uncertainty is high and further monitoring should be targeted. Reducing inter-map uncertainty will rely on addressing statistical limitations and including covariates that capture convergence of physical factors that produce high SOC contents.

Analytical modelling of soil porosity and bulk density across the soil organic matter and land-use continuum.

The thin layer of soil at the earth's surface supports life, storing water and nutrients for plant uptake. These processes occur in the soil pore space, often half the soil volume, but our understanding of how this volume responds to environmental change is poor. Convention, has been to predict soil porosity, or its reciprocal bulk density (BD), from soil texture using pedotransfer functions (PTFs). A texture based approach, invariant to environmental change, prevents feedback from land use or climate change to soil porosity. Moreover, PTFs are often limited to mineral soils with < 20% soil organic matter (SOM) content. Here, we develop an analytical model to predict soil porosity, or BD, as a function of SOM. We test it on two comprehensive, methodologically consistent, temperate national-scale topsoil data sets (0-15 cm) (Wales, n = 1385; Great Britain, n = 2570). The purpose of the approach is to generate an analytical function suitable for predicting soil porosity change with SOM content, while providing insight into the main grain-scale factors determining the porosity emergence. The newly developed function covering the entire SOM gradient allows for impacts of land use, management or climate change to feedback on soil porosity or bulk density through decadal dynamic changes in SOM.

Global assessment of nitrogen deposition effects on terrestrial plant diversity: a synthesis.

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a recognized threat to plant diversity in temperate and northern parts of Europe and North America. This paper assesses evidence from field experiments for N deposition effects and thresholds for terrestrial plant diversity protection across a latitudinal range of main categories of ecosystems, from arctic and boreal systems to tropical forests. Current thinking on the mechanisms of N deposition effects on plant diversity, the global distribution of G200 ecoregions, and current and future (2030) estimates of atmospheric N-deposition rates are then used to identify the risks to plant diversity in all major ecosystem types now and in the future. This synthesis paper clearly shows that N accumulation is the main driver of changes to species composition across the whole range of different ecosystem types by driving the competitive interactions that lead to composition change and/or making conditions unfavorable for some species. Other effects such as direct toxicity of nitrogen gases and aerosols, long-term negative effects of increased ammonium and ammonia availability, soil-mediated effects of acidification, and secondary stress and disturbance are more ecosystem- and site-specific and often play a supporting role. N deposition effects in mediterranean ecosystems have now been identified, leading to a first estimate of an effect threshold. Importantly, ecosystems thought of as not N limited, such as tropical and subtropical systems, may be more vulnerable in the regeneration phase, in situations where heterogeneity in N availability is reduced by atmospheric N deposition, on sandy soils, or in montane areas. Critical loads are effect thresholds for N deposition, and the critical load concept has helped European governments make progress toward reducing N loads on sensitive ecosystems. More needs to be done in Europe and North America, especially for the more sensitive ecosystem types, including several ecosystems of high conservation importance. The results of this assessment show that the vulnerable regions outside Europe and North America which have not received enough attention are ecoregions in eastern and southern Asia (China, India), an important part of the mediterranean ecoregion (California, southern Europe), and in the coming decades several subtropical and tropical parts of Latin America and Africa. Reductions in plant diversity by increased atmospheric N deposition may be more widespread than first thought, and more targeted studies are required in low background areas, especially in the G200 ecoregions.

Patterns and trends of topsoil carbon in the UK: Complex interactions of land use change, climate and pollution.

The UK Countryside Survey (CS) is a national long-term survey of soils and vegetation that spans three decades (1978-2007). Past studies using CS data have identified clear contrasting trends in topsoil organic carbon (tSOC) concentrations (0-15 cm) related to differences between habitat types. Here we firstly examine changes in tSOC resulting from land use change, and secondly construct mixed models to describe the impact of indirect drivers where land use has been constant. Where it occurs, land use change is a strong driver of SOC change, with largest changes in tSOC for transitions involving SOC-rich soils in upland and bog systems. Afforestation did not always increase tSOC, and the effect of transitions involving woodland was dependent on the other vegetation type. The overall national spatial pattern of tSOC concentration where land use has been constant is most strongly related to vegetation type and topsoil pH, with contributions from climate variables, deposition and geology. Comparisons of models for tSOC across time periods suggest that declining SO4 deposition has allowed recovery of topsoils from acidification, but that this has not resulted in the increased decomposition rates and loss of tSOC which might be expected. As a result, the relationship between pH and tSOC in UK topsoils has changed significantly between 1978 and 2007. The contributions of other indirect drivers in the models suggest negative relationships to seasonal temperature metrics and positive relationships to seasonal precipitation at the dry end of the scale. The results suggest that the CS approach of long-term collection of co-located vegetation and soil biophysical data provides essential tools both for identifying trends in tSOC at national and habitat levels, and for identifying areas of risk or areas with opportunities for managing topsoil SOC and vegetation change.

Waste in the U.S. Health care system: a conceptual framework.

CONTEXT: Health care costs in the United States are much higher than those in industrial countries with similar or better health system performance. Wasteful spending has many undesirable consequences that could be alleviated through waste reduction. This article proposes a conceptual framework to guide researchers and policymakers in evaluating waste, implementing waste-reduction strategies, and reducing the burden of unnecessary health care spending. METHODS: This article divides health care waste into administrative, operational, and clinical waste and provides an overview of each. It explains how researchers have used both high-level and sector- or procedure-specific comparisons to quantify such waste, and it discusses examples and challenges in both waste measurement and waste reduction. FINDINGS: Waste is caused by factors such as health insurance and medical uncertainties that encourage the production of inefficient and low-value services. Various efforts to reduce such waste have encountered challenges, such as the high costs of initial investment, unintended administrative complexities, and trade-offs among patients', payers', and providers' interests. While categorizing waste may help identify and measure general types and sources of waste, successful reduction strategies must integrate the administrative, operational, and clinical components of care, and proceed by identifying goals, changing systemic incentives, and making specific process improvements. CONCLUSIONS: Classifying, identifying, and measuring waste elucidate its causes, clarify systemic goals, and specify potential health care reforms that-by improving the market for health insurance and health care-will generate incentives for better efficiency and thus ultimately decrease waste in the U.S. health care system.

Carbon and nitrogen cycles in European ecosystems respond differently to global warming.

The global climate is predicted to become significantly warmer over the next century. This will affect ecosystem processes and the functioning of semi natural and natural ecosystems in many parts of the world. However, as various ecosystem processes may be affected to a different extent, balances between different ecosystem processes as well as between different ecosystems may shift and lead to major unpredicted changes. In this study four European shrubland ecosystems along a north-south temperature gradient were experimentally warmed by a novel nighttime warming technique. Biogeochemical cycling of both carbon and nitrogen was affected at the colder sites with increased carbon uptake for plant growth as well as increased carbon loss through soil respiration. Carbon uptake by plant growth was more sensitive to warming than expected from the temperature response across the sites while carbon loss through soil respiration reacted to warming in agreement with the overall Q10 and response functions to temperature across the sites. Opposite to carbon, the nitrogen mineralization was relatively insensitive to the temperature increase and was mainly affected by changes in soil moisture. The results suggest that C and N cycles respond asymmetrically to warming, which may lead to progressive nitrogen limitation and thereby acclimation in plant production. This further suggests that in many temperate zones nitrogen deposition has to be accounted for, not only with respect to the impact on water quality through increased nitrogen leaching where N deposition is high, but also in predictions of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems under future climatic conditions. Finally the results indicate that on the short term the above-ground processes are more sensitive to temperature changes than the below ground processes.

Root-surface phosphatase activity in shrublands across a European gradient: effects of warming.

Root-surface phosphatase activities were measured in natural and semi-natural shrublands across an European climatic gradient of temperature and rainfall including Wales (WL), Denmark (DK), Netherlands (NL), Hungary (HU), Italy (IT) and Spain (SP). In each site a warming experiment was conducted since 1999 or 2001 by means of passive night-time warming using reflective curtains that covered the vegetation at night. The treatments increased yearly average soil temperatures around 0. 8 degrees C in most of sites. Root-surface phosphatase activity values ranged between 56 mg PNP g(-1) h(-1) in IT and 3.5 mg PNP g(-1) h(-1) in HU. Warming had no effect on root-surface phosphatase activity across the sites and only in Hungary a slight increase was detected. Plants at Mediterranean sites (IT, SP) showed a higher root-surface phosphatase activity than plants at temperate sites (WL, NL, DK). We suggest it might be an adaptation of plant species evolved under Mediterranean climate that allows them a) to compensate in wet period for the decrease in phosphatase activity, and thus P uptake, during drought periods, and/or b) to benefit from soluble organic P flushes following the frequent drying-rewetting episodes experienced by soils in Mediterranean ecosystems.

A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy.

BACKGROUND: The new reality of biologic terrorism and warfare has ignited a debate about whether to reintroduce smallpox vaccination. METHODS: We developed scenarios of smallpox attacks and built a stochastic model of outcomes under various control policies. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated model parameters on the basis of European and North American outbreaks since World War II. We assessed the trade-offs between vaccine-related harms and benefits. RESULTS: Nations or terrorists possessing a smallpox weapon could feasibly mount attacks that vary with respect to tactical complexity and target size, and patterns of spread can be expected to vary according to whether index patients are hospitalized early. For acceptable results, vaccination of contacts must be accompanied by effective isolation. Vaccination of contacts plus isolation is expected to result in 7 deaths (from vaccine or smallpox) in a scenario involving the release of variola virus from a laboratory, 19 deaths in a human-vector scenario, 300 deaths in a building-attack scenario, 2735 deaths in a scenario involving a low-impact airport attack, and 54,729 deaths in a scenario involving a high-impact airport attack. Immediate vaccination of the public in an attacked region would provide little additional benefit. Prior vaccination of health care workers, who would be disproportionately affected, would save lives in large local or national attacks but would cause 25 deaths nationally. Prior vaccination of health care workers and the public would save lives in a national attack but would cause 482 deaths nationally. The expected net benefits of vaccination depend on the assessed probability of an attack. Prior vaccination of health care workers would be expected to save lives if the probability of a building attack exceeded 0.22 or if the probability of a high-impact airport attack exceeded 0.002. The probability would have to be much higher to make vaccination of the public life-saving. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis favors prior vaccination of health care workers unless the likelihood of any attack is very low, but it favors vaccination of the public only if the likelihood of a national attack or of multiple attacks is high.

Perceived causes of disability added prognostic value beyond medical conditions and functional status.

OBJECTIVE: This study's objective was to determine the incremental benefit of respondent subjective attribution of functional decline beyond relying solely on disease burden in predicting survival. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS: A total of 9447 older adults from the Second Longitudinal Study on Aging, a probability sample of community dwelling adults aged 70 or older, were evaluated. Survival was based on status at follow-up interview 3-4 years after baseline interview. Logistic regression was performed using demographic variables and coexisting diseases as a baseline, then adding functional status measures (ADL, IADL) and individual subjective attribution of functional limitation in subsequent models. RESULTS: The predictions improved significantly with the addition of functional status measures (P<0.001) and the individual subjective attribution of functional limitation (P<0.001). For example, the probability of mortality for individuals with cancer was 17.3%, but 28.8% of those with cancer and functional limitations died as did 50% of those with cancer who reported functional limitations attributable to cancer. CONCLUSION: Among persons who can make a specific attribution of their functional limitation, the attribution may have value as a marker of severity of disease and serve as a good predictive measure for mortality, especially in specific illnesses such as cancer.

Can a chronic care model collaborative reduce heart disease risk in patients with diabetes?

BACKGROUND: There is a need to identify effective practical interventions to decrease cardiovascular disease risk in patients with diabetes. OBJECTIVE: We examine the impact of participation in a collaborative implementing the chronic care model (CCM) on the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk in patients with diabetes. DESIGN: Controlled pre- and postintervention study. PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: Persons with diabetes receiving care at 13 health care organizations exposed to the CCM collaborative and controls receiving care in nonexposed sites. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Ten-year risk of cardiovascular disease; determined using a modified United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine score. A total number of 613 patients from CCM intervention sites and 557 patients from usual care control sites met the inclusion criteria. The baseline mean 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease was 31% for both the intervention group and the control group. Participants in both groups had improved blood pressure, lipid levels, and HbA1c levels during the observation period. Random intercept hierarchical regression models showed that the intervention group had a 2.1% (95% CI -3.7%, -0.5%) greater reduction in predicted risk for future cardiovascular events when compared to the control group. This would result in a reduced risk of one cardiovascular disease event for every 48 patients exposed to the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Over a 1-year interval, this collaborative intervention using the CCM lowered the cardiovascular disease risk factors of patients with diabetes who were cared for in the participating organization's settings. Further work could enhance the impact of this promising multifactorial intervention on cardiovascular disease risk reduction.

Trends in primary and secondary syphilis among men who have sex with men in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the epidemiology of primary and secondary syphilis in the United States and estimated the percentages of cases occurring among men who have sex with men (MSM). METHODS: We reviewed US syphilis surveillance data from 1990 through 2003. We estimated the number of cases occurring among MSM by modeling changes in the ratio of syphilis cases among men to cases among women. RESULTS: During 1990 through 2000, the rate of primary and secondary syphilis decreased 90% overall, declining 90% among men and 89% among women. The overall rate increased 19% between 2000 and 2003, reflecting a 62% increase among men and a 53% decrease among women. In 2003, an estimated 62% of reported cases occurred among MSM. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing syphilis cases among MSM account for most of the recent overall increase in rates and may be a harbinger of increasing rates of HIV infection among MSM. National efforts are under way to improve monitoring of syphilis trends, better understand factors associated with the observed increases, and improve efforts to prevent syphilis transmission.

Predicting outcomes of primary care patients with major depression: development of a depression prognosis index.

OBJECTIVE: Depression research and practice focus increasingly on diverse patient populations with varying probabilities of response to clinical care. Prognostic indices use preexisting patient characteristics to estimate the probability of subsequent negative clinical outcomes and are useful tools for improving the study and care of diverse populations. Few such measures, however, have been developed for mental health conditions. This study developed and validated a depression prognosis measure for primary care patients with major depression. METHODS: Consecutive patients in 108 primary care practices were screened for depression, and 1,471 with major depression were enrolled. A Depression Prognosis Index (DPI) predicting persistent depression six months after baseline was developed for a random one-third subsample and validated with the remaining two-thirds. Models included prior treatment, demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and other physical, psychological, and social predictors. RESULTS: Sixty-four percent to 65% of patients classified by baseline DPI score as being in the sample quartile with the worst prognosis had probable major depression six months later, compared with 14% to 15% in the best-prognosis quartile. The DPI had an R2 of .40 in the development sample and .27 in the validation sample. Important predictors included severity of depression symptoms at baseline, social support, common physical symptoms, and having completed three months of antidepressants at sample entry. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of the DPI to predict six-month outcomes compares favorably to that of prognostic indices for general medical problems. These results validate the DPI and provide conceptual guidance for further development of depression risk stratification instruments for clinical and research use.

Phosphorus supply influences heathland responses to atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

On an upland moor dominated by pioneer Calluna vulgaris and with an understorey of mosses and lichens, experimental plots were treated with factorial combinations of nitrogen (N) at +0 and +20kg Nha(-1)yr(-1), and phosphorus (P) at +0 and +5kg Pha(-1)yr(-1). Over the 4-year duration of the experiment, the cover of the Calluna canopy increased in density over time as part of normal phenological development. Moss cover increased initially in response to N addition but then remained static; increases in cover in response to P addition became stronger over time, eventually causing reductions in the cover of the dominant Calluna canopy. Lichen cover virtually disappeared within 4 years in plots receiving +20kg Nha(-1)yr(-1) and also in separate plots receiving +10kg Nha(-1)yr(-1), but this effect was reversed by the addition of P.