Counting the lifetime cost of obesity: Analysis based on national England data.

AIM: Obesity has a significant impact on all-cause mortality rate and overall health care resource use (HCRU). These outcomes are also strongly linked to age, sex and local deprivation of the population. We aimed to establish the lifetime costs of obesity by demographic group/geographic area using published mortality rates and HCRU use for integrated care boards (ICB) in England in the context of costs of therapeutic intervention. METHODS: Population and expected mortality rates by age, sex and deprivation were obtained from national data. Obesity class prevalence was taken from the health of the nation study. The published impact of obesity by age, group, sex and deprivation on mortality and HCRU were applied to estimate life years lost and lifetime HCRU [by sex, age band and body mass index (BMI) class for each ICB]. The year 2019 was chosen as the study basis data to avoid influences of COVID-19 pandemic on obesity rates with application of 2022/23 HCRU values. Outcomes including prevalence, deaths, life years lost, HCRU and lifetime HCRU were compared by age and sex groups across four BMI classes normal/underweight (BMI <25 kg/m2 ), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2 ), obese class I and II (30-39.9 kg/m2 ), and obese class III (≥40), with benchmarking being set against all population being BMI <25 kg/m2 overall and by each of the 42 ICBs. We also associated future life with deaths to provide an estimate of 'future life years lost' occurring each year. RESULTS: Total population aged >16 years was 45.4 million (51% female). PREVALENCE: 13.7 million (28% of the total adult population) had a BMI ≥30 mg/m2 and BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were 1.50 million (12%) of these 1.0 million (68%) were female and of these 0.6 million 40% were women aged 16-49 years. In addition, 35% of those with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were in the top deprivation quintile (i.e. overall 20%). Mortality was based on expected deaths of 518K/year, and modelling suggested that if a BMI <25 kg/m2 was achieved in all individuals, the death rate would fall by 63K to 455K/year for the English population (12% reduction). For those with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 the predicted reduction was 12K deaths (54% lower); while in those aged 16-49 years with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 72% of deaths were linked to obesity. For future life years lost, we estimated 2.5 years were lost in people with BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2 6.7 years when BMI ≥40 kg/m2 . However, for those aged 16-49 years with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 , 8.3 years were lost. HCRU, for weight reduction, the annual HCRU decrease from BMI ≥40 kg/m2 to BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2 was £342 per person and from BMI 30-39.9 to 25-29.9 kg/m2 the reduction was £316/person. However, lifetime costs were similar because of reduced life expectancy for obese individuals. In quality adjusted life years (QALY), overall, 791 689 future life years were lost (13.1% of all) in people with BMI ≥25 kg/m2 and were related to excess weight. When the NICE £30 000 per QALY value was applied to the estimated total 791 689 future life years lost then the potential QALY value reduction lost was equivalent to £24 billion/year or £522/person in the obese population. For morbidly obese men and women the potential QALY value lost was £2864/person/year. Regarding geography, across the 42 ICBs, we observed significant variation in the prevalence of BMI ≥40 (1.8%-4.3%), excess mortality (11.6%-15.4%) and HCRU linked to higher BMI (7.2%-8.8%). The areas with the greatest impact on HCRU were in the north-west, north-east and Midlands of England, while the south shows less impact. CONCLUSION: The expected increases in annual HCRU because of obesity, when considered over a lifetime, are being mitigated by the increased mortality of obese individuals. Our data suggest that simple short-term HCRU reduction brought about through BMI reduction will be insufficient to fund additional specialist weight reduction interventions. The HRCUs associated with BMI are not in most cases related to short-term health conditions. They are a cumulative result over a number of years, so for age 16-49 years reducing BMI from ≥40 to 30-39.9 kg/m2 might show an annual decrease in HCRU/person by £325/year for women and £80/year for men but this might not have immediately occurred within that year. For those aged >70 years reducing BMI from ≥40 to 30-39.9 kg/m2 might show an annual decrease in HCRU/person by £777/year for women and £796/year for men but also may not be manifest within that year. However, for the morbidly obese men and women, the potential QALY value lost was £2864 per person per year with the potential for these funds to be applied to intensive weight management programmes, including pharmacotherapy.

Failure to control conventional cardiovascular risk factors in women with type 2 diabetes might explain worse mortality.

INTRODUCTION: The standardised mortality rate (SMR) for people with diabetes in England is 1.5-1.7, with differences in outcomes between sexes. There has been little work examining the factors that could have an impact on this or on what may determine sex differences in outcome. METHODS: Data were extracted for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Salford (England) in 2010 for the years up to 2020, including any deaths recorded. Expected deaths were calculated from annual Office of National Statistics mortality rate and life expectancy by age and gender, adjusted for the local Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). This provided the SMR deprivation (SMRd), and life expectancy years lost per death (LEYLD). The effects of treatment type, and clinical features on SMRd relative to sex were examined by univariable and multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Data from n = 11,806 (F = 5184; M = 6622) patients were included. Of these, n = 5540 were newly diagnosed and n = 3921 died (F = 1841; M = 2080). In total, n = 78,930 patient years. The expected deaths numbered n = 2596 (adjusted for age, sex, and IMD). Excess deaths were n = 1325 (F = 689; M = 636). Life expectancy years lost (LEYL) 18,989 (F = 9714; M = 9275). SMRd 1.51 (F = 1.60; M = 1.44) and LEYLD 4.84 years (F = 5.28; M = 4.46). The impact of risk factors was not different by sex. However, women had higher prevalence of % diagnosed >65 years of age; % last eGFR <60 mLs/min/1.73 m2 , and lower prevalence of % prescribed ACE-inhibitor/ARB, DPP4-inhibitor and SGLT2-inhibitor. Applying the male prevalence rate to the female population and expected mortality suggested n = 437 (55%) of excess T2D female deaths were attributed to sex difference in the prevalence of these risk and protective factors. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes in women with T2DM are worse than in men, contributed to by greater prevalence of adverse factors and less prescribing of cardioprotective medication.

Diabetes foot complications and standardized mortality rate in type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To quantify the impact of foot complications on mortality outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and how routinely measured factors might modulate that risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data for individuals with T2D for 2010-2020, from the Salford Integrated Care Record (Salford, UK), were extracted for laboratory and clinical data, and deaths. Annual expected deaths were taken from Office of National Statistics mortality data. An index of multiple deprivation (IMD) adjusted the standardized mortality ratio (SMR_IMD). Life years lost per death (LYLD) was estimated from the difference between expected and actual deaths. RESULTS: A total of 11 806 T2D patients were included, with 5583 new diagnoses and 3921 deaths during 2010-2020. The number of expected deaths was 2135; after IMD adjustment, there were 2595 expected deaths. Therefore, excess deaths numbered 1326 (SMR_IMD 1.51). No foot complications were evident in n = 9857. This group had an SMR_IMD of 1.13 and 2.74 LYLD. In total, 2979 patients had any foot complication recorded. In this group, the SMD_IMR was 2.29; of these, 2555 (75%) had only one foot complication. Patients with a foot complication showed little difference in percentage HbA1c more than 58 mmol/mol. In multivariate analysis, for those with a foot complication and an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of more than 3 mg/mmol, the odds ratio (OR) for death was 1.93, and for an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73m2 , the OR for death was 1.92. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with T2D but without a foot complication have an SMR_IMD that is only slightly higher than that of the general population. Those diagnosed with a foot complication have a mortality risk that is double that of those without T2D.

Non-theatre emergency airway management: a multicentre prospective observational study.

Emergency airway management events are common, unpredictable and associated with high complication rates. This multicentre prospective observational study across eight acute NHS hospitals in southeast England reports the incidence and nature of non-theatre emergency airway management events. Data were collected from non-theatre emergency airway management, including adverse events, over a continuous 28-day window, and recorded on an electronic case report form. Events were classified according to type (advanced airway; simple airway; and cardiac arrest). A total of 166 events were recorded, with 111 advanced airway events involving tracheal intubation or tracheostomy management. Senior personnel with three or more years of airway management experience were present for 105/111 (95%) advanced airway management episodes. There was a significant reduction in consultant or equivalent presence out-of-hours (21/64, 33%) vs. in-hours (34/47, 72%) (p < 0.001). We found high utilisation of videolaryngoscopy (95/106, 90%) and universal use of capnography for all advanced airway management events. This was lower during cardiac arrest when videolaryngoscopy was used in 11/16 (69%) of tracheal intubations and capnography in 21/32 (66%) of all cardiac arrest episodes. Adverse outcomes during advanced airway management (excluding during cardiac arrest) occurred in 53/111 (48%) episodes, including hypoxia (desaturation to Sp O2 < 80% in 14/111, 13%) and hypotension (systolic blood pressure < 80 mmHg in 27/111, 25%). Adverse outcomes were not associated with time of day or experience level of airway practitioners. We conclude that there is a disparity between consultant presence for advanced airway interventions in- and out-of-hours; high utilisation of videolaryngoscopy and capnography, especially for advanced airway interventions; and a high incidence of hypotension and hypoxaemia, including critical values, during non-theatre airway management.

Developing flexible models for genetic evaluations in smallholder crossbred dairy farms.

The productivity of smallholder dairy farms is very low in developing countries. Important genetic gains could be realized using genomic selection, but genetic evaluations need to be tailored for lack of pedigree information and very small farm sizes. To accommodate this situation, we propose a flexible Bayesian model for the genetic evaluation of milk yield, which allows us to simultaneously account for nongenetic random effects for farms and varying SNP variance (BayesR model). First, we used simulations based on real genotype data from Indian crossbred dairy cattle to demonstrate that the proposed model can separate the true genetic and nongenetic parameters even for small farm sizes (2 cows on average) although with high standard errors in scenarios with low heritability. The accuracy of genomic genetic evaluation increased until farm size was approximately 5. We then applied the model to real data from 4,655 crossbred cows with 106,109 monthly test day milk records and 689,750 autosomal SNPs. We estimated a heritability of 0.16 (0.04) for milk yield and using cross-validation, a genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) accuracy of 0.45 and bias (regression of phenotype on GEBV) of 1.04 (0.26). Estimated genetic parameters were very similar using BayesR, BayesC, and genomic BLUP approaches. Candidate genes near the top variants, IMMP2L and ARHGEF2, have been previously associated with milk protein composition, mastitis resistance, and milk cholesterol content. The estimated heritability and GEBV accuracy for milk yield are much lower than those from intensive or pasture-based systems in many countries. Further increases in the number of phenotyped and genotyped animals in farms with at least 2 cows (preferably 3-5, to allow for dropout of cows) are needed to improve the estimation of genetic effects in these smallholder dairy farms.

The change in glycaemic control immediately after COVID-19 vaccination in people with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: Evidence suggests that some people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) experience temporary instability of blood glucose (BG) levels after COVID-19 vaccination. We aimed to assess this objectively. METHODS: We examined the interstitial glucose profile of 97 consecutive adults (age ≥ 18 years) with T1DM using the FreeStyle Libre® flash glucose monitor in the periods immediately before and after their first COVID-19 vaccination. The primary outcome measure was percentage (%) interstitial glucose readings within the target range 3.9-10 mmol/L for 7 days prior to the vaccination and the 7 days after the vaccination. Data are mean ± standard error. RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in the % interstitial glucose on target (3.9-10.0) for the 7 days following vaccination (mean 52.2% ± 2.0%) versus pre-COVID-19 vaccination (mean 55.0% ± 2.0%) (p = 0.030). 58% of individuals with T1DM showed a reduction in the 'time in target range' in the week after vaccination. 30% showed a decrease of time within the target range of over 10%, and 10% showed a decrease in time within target range of over 20%. The change in interstitial glucose proportion on target in the week following vaccination was most pronounced for people taking metformin/dapagliflozin + basal bolus insulin (change -7.6%) and for people with HbA1c below the median (change -5.7%). CONCLUSION: In T1DM, we have shown that initial COVID-19 vaccination can cause temporary perturbation of interstitial glucose, with this effect more pronounced in people talking oral hypoglycaemic medication plus insulin, and when HbA1c is lower.

Antimicrobial susceptibility, plasmid replicon typing, phylogenetic grouping, and virulence potential of avian pathogenic and faecal Escherichia coli isolated from meat chickens in Australia.

Globally, avian colibacillosis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in poultry, associated with economic losses and welfare problems. Here, clinical avian pathogenic E. coli isolates (CEC; n = 50) and faecal E. coli isolates from healthy (FEC; n = 187) Australian meat chickens collected between 2006 and 2014 were subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing, phylogenetic grouping, plasmid replicon (PR) typing, multilocus sequence typing, and virulence gene (VG) profiling. Extended-spectrum cephalosporin (ESC)- and fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistant E. coli isolates underwent further genetic characterization. Significant proportions of CEC and FEC were, respectively, susceptible (13/50; 48/187) or MDR (9/50; 26/187) to 20 tested antimicrobials. Phylogenetic groups A and C, and PR types IncFIB and IncFrep were most represented. Five tested CEC-associated VGs were more prevalent in CEC (≥ 90%) than FEC (≤ 58%). Some isolates (CEC n = 3; FEC n = 7) were resistant to ESCs and/or FQs and possessed signature mutations in chromosomal FQ target genes and plasmid-mediated qnrS, blaCMY-2, and blaDHA-1 genes. Sequence type 354 (n = 4), associated with extraintestinal infections in a broad range of hosts, was prevalent among ESC- and/or FQ-resistant FEC. This study confirmed existence of a small reservoir of ESC- and FQ-resistant E. coli in Australian commercial meat chickens despite absence of use in the industry of these drugs. Otherwise, diversity of VGs and PR types in both FEC and CEC populations was identified. We hypothesize that the source of ESC- and FQ-resistant E. coli is external to poultry production facilities.RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTSLow-level resistance to older and newer generation antimicrobial drugs detected.The most common sequence type (ST) associated with FQ resistance was ST354 (4/10).A small proportion of CEC (n = 3) and FEC (n = 7) were resistant to ESCs and/or FQs.

Mortality after surgery with SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: a population-wide epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has heavily impacted elective and emergency surgery around the world. We aimed to confirm the incidence of perioperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and associated mortality after surgery. METHODS: Analysis of routine electronic health record data from NHS hospitals in England. We extracted data from Hospital Episode Statistics in England describing adult patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. The exposure was SARS-CoV-2 infection defined by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. The primary outcome measure was 90 day in-hospital mortality. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Index of Multiple Deprivation, presence of cancer, surgical procedure type and admission acuity. Results are presented as n (%) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We identified 2 666 978 patients undergoing surgery of whom 28 777 (1.1%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. In total, 26 364 (1.0%) patients died in hospital. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a much greater risk of death (SARS-CoV-2: 6153/28 777 [21.4%] vs no SARS-CoV-2: 20 211/2 638 201 [0.8%]; OR=5.7 [95% CI, 5.5-5.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing elective surgery, 2412/1 857 586 (0.1%) had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 172/2412 (7.1%) died, compared with 1414/1 857 586 (0.1%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=25.8 [95% CI, 21.7-30.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing emergency surgery, 22 918/582 292 (3.9%) patients had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 5752/22 918 (25.1%) died, compared with 18 060/559 374 (3.4%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=5.5 [95% CI, 5.3-5.7]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The low incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHS surgical pathways suggests current infection prevention and control policies are highly effective. However, the high mortality amongst patients with SARS-CoV-2 suggests these precautions cannot be safely relaxed.

Genomic prediction of crossbred dairy cattle in Tanzania: A route to productivity gains in smallholder dairy systems.

Selection based on genomic predictions has become the method of choice for genetic improvement in dairy cattle. This offers huge opportunity for developing countries with little or no pedigree data, and preliminary studies have shown promising results. The African Dairy Genetic Gains (ADGG) project initiated a digital system of dairy performance data collection, accompanied by genotyping in Tanzania in 2016. Currently, ADGG has the largest body of dairy performance data generated in East Africa from a smallholder dairy system. This study examines the use of genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and single-step (ss)GBLUP for the estimation of genetic parameters and accuracy of genomic prediction for daily milk yield and body weight in Tanzania. The estimates of heritability for daily milk yield from GBLUP and ssGBLUP were essentially the same, at 0.12 ± 0.03. The heritability estimates for daily milk yield averaged over the whole lactation from random regression model (RRM) GBLUP or ssGBLUP were 0.22 and 0.24, respectively. The heritability of body weight from GBLUP was 0.24 ± 04 but was 0.22 ± 04 from the ssGBLUP analysis. Accuracy of genomic prediction for milk yield from a forward validation was 0.57 for GBLUP based on fixed regression model or 0.55 from an RRM. Corresponding estimates from ssGBLUP were 0.59 and 0.53, respectively. Accuracy for body weight, however, was much higher at 0.83 from GBLUP and 0.77 for ssGBLUP. The moderate to high levels of accuracy of genomic prediction (0.53-0.83) obtained for milk yield and body weight indicate that selection on the basis of genomic prediction is feasible in smallholder dairy systems and most probably the only initial possible pathway to implementing sustained genetic improvement programs in such systems.

Risk of anticholinergic burden in adults with intellectual disabilities: a Scottish retrospective cohort study of n = 17 220.

BACKGROUND: Several drugs have anticholinergic side effects that are associated with adverse health outcomes. Anticholinergic burden studies in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) have focused exclusively on older adults. This study investigates anticholinergic burden and its associations in adults with ID of all ages (17-94 years). METHODS: Adults with ID (n = 4 305), each with three general population age-sex-neighbourhood-matched controls (n = 12 915), were linked to their prescribed medications with anticholinergic effects between 2009 and 2017. Analyses were undertaken using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Adults with ID were more likely to be prescribed any anticholinergic medicines, odds ratio (OR) = 1.49 (1.38-1.59), especially 'very strong' risk medicines, OR = 2.59 (2.39-2.81); 48.5% had very high total anticholinergic burden (3+) compared with 35.4% of the general population, OR = 1.77 (1.64-1.90). This group difference was greater for males, OR = 2.02 (1.84-2.22), than females, OR = 1.48 (1.33-1.65). Adults with ID had significantly higher odds of having very high total anticholinergic burden up to 75 years old, with the greatest group effect occurring in younger ages, 17-24-year-olds, OR = 3.05 (2.39-3.89), and the extent of the difference decreased as age increased. The main effect of neighbourhood deprivation showed greater group differences with increasing affluence of neighbourhood. Results examining only the ID group showed that very high total anticholinergic burden was greatest for females, OR = 1.21 (1.07-1.37), and those over age 55, and extent of neighbourhood deprivation was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with ID are at higher risk of anticholinergic burden than the general population, especially young adults. Overall anticholinergic burden increased with age, but burden was high across all ages in the ID group. Very high total anticholinergic burden is prevalent across all types of neighbourhoods for the adults with ID, in contrast to the steeper gradient seen in the general population. Adults with ID have increased likelihood of unintended adverse effects, regardless of potential confounds, so clinicians undertaking medication reviews need to consider anticholinergic side effects and cumulative burden across concomitant medications, including in young adults with ID, not just older adults, and particularly women.

The patterns of admixture, divergence, and ancestry of African cattle populations determined from genome-wide SNP data.

BACKGROUND: Humpless Bos taurus cattle are one of the earliest domestic cattle in Africa, followed by the arrival of humped Bos indicus cattle. The diverse indigenous cattle breeds of Africa are derived from these migrations, with most appearing to be hybrids between Bos taurus and Bos indicus. The present study examines the patterns of admixture, diversity, and relationships among African cattle breeds. METHODS: Data for ~ 40 k SNPs was obtained from previous projects for 4089 animals representing 35 African indigenous, 6 European Bos taurus, 4 Bos indicus, and 5 African crossbred cattle populations. Genetic diversity and population structure were assessed using principal component analyses (PCA), admixture analyses, and Wright's F statistic. The linkage disequilibrium and effective population size (Ne) were estimated for the pure cattle populations. RESULTS: The first two principal components differentiated Bos indicus from European Bos taurus, and African Bos taurus from other breeds. PCA and admixture analyses showed that, except for recently admixed cattle, all indigenous breeds are either pure African Bos taurus or admixtures of African Bos taurus and Bos indicus. The African zebu breeds had highest proportions of Bos indicus ancestry ranging from 70 to 90% or 60 to 75%, depending on the admixture model. Other indigenous breeds that were not 100% African Bos taurus, ranged from 42 to 70% or 23 to 61% Bos indicus ancestry. The African Bos taurus populations showed substantial genetic diversity, and other indigenous breeds show evidence of having more than one African taurine ancestor. Ne estimates based on r2 and r2adj showed a decline in Ne from a large population at 2000 generations ago, which is surprising for the indigenous breeds given the expected increase in cattle populations over that period and the lack of structured breeding programs. CONCLUSION: African indigenous cattle breeds have a large genetic diversity and are either pure African Bos taurus or admixtures of African Bos taurus and Bos indicus. This provides a rich resource of potentially valuable genetic variation, particularly for adaptation traits, and to support conservation programs. It also provides challenges for the development of genomic assays and tools for use in African populations.

The association of smoking and socioeconomic status on cutaneous melanoma: a population-based, data-linkage, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have identified an inverse association between melanoma and smoking; however, data from population-based studies are scarce. OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between smoking and socioeconomic (SES) on the risk of development of melanoma. Furthermore, we sought to determine the implications of smoking and SES on survival. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study. Cases were identified from the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit (WCISU) during 2000-2015 and controls from the general population. Smoking and SES were obtained from data linkage with other national databases. The association of smoking status and SES on the incidence of melanoma were assessed using binary logistic regression. Multivariate survival analysis was performed on a melanoma cohort using a Cox proportional hazard model using survival as the outcome. RESULTS: During 2000-2015, 9636 patients developed melanoma. Smoking data were obtained for 7124 (73·9%) of these patients. There were 26 408 controls identified from the general population. Smoking was inversely associated with melanoma incidence [odds ratio (OR) 0·70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·65-0·76]. Smoking was associated with an increased overall mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1·30, 95% CI 1·09-1·55], but not associated with melanoma-specific mortality. Patients with higher SES had an increased association with melanoma incidence (OR 1·58, 95% CI 1·44-1·73). Higher SES was associated with an increased chance of both overall (HR 0·67, 95% CI 0·56-0·81) and disease-specific survival (HR 0·69, 95% CI 0·53-0·90). CONCLUSIONS: Our study has demonstrated that smoking appeared to be associated with reduced incidence of melanoma. Although smoking increases overall mortality, no association was observed with melanoma-specific mortality. Further work is required to determine if there is a biological mechanism underlying this relationship or an alternative explanation, such as survival bias. What's already known about this topic? Previous studies have been contradictory with both negative and positive associations between smoking and the incidence of melanoma reported. Previous studies have either been limited by publication bias because of selective reporting or underpowered. What does this study add? Our large study identified an inverse association between smoking status and melanoma incidence. Although smoking status was negatively associated with overall disease survival, no significant association was noted in melanoma-specific survival. Socioeconomic status remains closely associated with melanoma. Although higher socioeconomic populations are more likely to develop the disease, patients with lower socioeconomic status continue to have a worse prognosis.

Dental attendance, restoration and extractions in adults with intellectual disabilities compared with the general population: a record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Oral health may be poorer in adults with intellectual disabilities (IDs) who rely on carer support and medications with increased dental risks. METHODS: Record linkage study of dental outcomes, and associations with anticholinergic (e.g. antipsychotics) and sugar-containing liquid medication, in adults with IDs compared with age-sex-neighbourhood deprivation-matched general population controls. RESULTS: A total of 2933/4305 (68.1%) with IDs and 7761/12 915 (60.1%) without IDs attended dental care: odds ratio (OR) = 1.42 [1.32, 1.53]; 1359 (31.6%) with IDs versus 5233 (40.5%) without IDs had restorations: OR = 0.68 [0.63, 0.73]; and 567 (13.2%) with IDs versus 2048 (15.9%) without IDs had dental extractions: OR = 0.80 [0.73, 0.89]. Group differences for attendance were greatest in younger ages, and restoration/extractions differences were greatest in older ages. Adults with IDs were more likely prescribed with anticholinergics (2493 (57.9%) vs. 6235 (48.3%): OR = 1.49 [1.39, 1.59]) and sugar-containing liquids (1641 (38.1%) vs. 2315 (17.9%): OR = 2.89 [2.67, 3.12]). CONCLUSION: Carers support dental appointments, but dentists may be less likely to restore teeth, possibly extracting multiple teeth at individual appointments instead.

Effectiveness of Fluticasone Furoate-Vilanterol for COPD in Clinical Practice.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) comes from closely monitored efficacy trials involving groups of patients who were selected on the basis of restricted entry criteria. There is a need for randomized trials to be conducted in conditions that are closer to usual clinical practice. METHODS: In a controlled effectiveness trial conducted in 75 general practices, we randomly assigned 2799 patients with COPD to a once-daily inhaled combination of fluticasone furoate at a dose of 100 µg and vilanterol at a dose of 25 µg (the fluticasone furoate-vilanterol group) or to usual care (the usual-care group). The primary outcome was the rate of moderate or severe exacerbations among patients who had had an exacerbation within 1 year before the trial. Secondary outcomes were the rates of primary care contact (contact with a general practitioner, nurse, or other health care professional) and secondary care contact (inpatient admission, outpatient visit with a specialist, or visit to the emergency department), modification of the initial trial treatment for COPD, and the rate of exacerbations among patients who had had an exacerbation within 3 years before the trial, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. RESULTS: The rate of moderate or severe exacerbations was significantly lower, by 8.4% (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 15.2), with fluticasone furoate-vilanterol therapy than with usual care (P=0.02). There was no significant difference in the annual rate of COPD-related contacts to primary or secondary care. There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of the first moderate or severe exacerbation and the first severe exacerbation in the time-to-event analyses. There were no excess serious adverse events of pneumonia in the fluticasone furoate-vilanterol group. The numbers of other serious adverse events were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with COPD and a history of exacerbations, a once-daily treatment regimen of combined fluticasone furoate and vilanterol was associated with a lower rate of exacerbations than usual care, without a greater risk of serious adverse events. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; Salford Lung Study ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01551758 .).

Falling perinatal mortality in twins in the UK: organisational success or chance?

In June 2018, Mothers and Babies Reducing Risks through Audits and Confidential Enquiries across the UK (MBRRACE-UK) published a Perinatal Surveillance report of an audit between 2013-2016. This noted that the stillbirth rate for twins nearly halved between 2014-2016; whereas the stillbirth rate for singletons remained static. There was a statistically significant reduction in the rate of stillbirth in twins over this period from 11.07 (95% CI, 9.78-12.47) to 6.16 (95% CI, 5.20-7.24) per 1000 total births. This commentary discusses these observations, the effects of twin chorionicity, and the potential obstetric and neonatal interventions, as well as public health improvements, that may have influenced these findings.

Genetic evaluation of test-day milk yields from smallholder dairy production systems in Kenya using genomic relationships.

Efforts to improve dairy production in smallholder farming systems of East Africa over the past decade have had limited impact because of the lack of records on performance to guide targeted breeding programs. Estimates of genetic parameters in these systems are lacking. Using data generated through a project ("Germplasm for Dairy Development in East Africa") in Kenya and a genomic relationship matrix from genotypic records, we examined the potential impact of different models handling contemporary groups or herd effects on estimates of genetic parameters using a fixed regression model (FRM) for test-day (TD) milk yields, and the covariance structure for TD milk yield at various stages of lactation for animals using a random regression model (RRM). Models in which herd groups were defined using production levels derived from the data fitted the data better than those in which herds were grouped depending on management practices or were random. Lactation curves obtained for animals under different production categories did not display the typical peak yield characteristic of improved dairy systems in developed countries. Heritability estimates for TD milk yields using the FRM varied greatly with the definition of contemporary herd groups, ranging from 0.05 ± 0.03 to 0.27 ± 0.05 (mean ± standard error). The analysis using the RRM fitted the data better than the FRM. The heritability estimates for specific TD yields obtained by the RRM were higher than those obtained by the FRM. Genetic correlations between TD yields were high and positive for measures within short consecutive intervals but decreased as the intervals between TD increased beyond 60 d and became negative with intervals of more than 5 mo. The magnitude of the genetic correlation estimates among TD records indicates that using TD milk records beyond a 60-d interval as repeated measures of the same trait for genetic evaluation of animals on smallholder farms would not be optimal. Although each individual smallholder farmer retains only a few animals, using the genomic relationship between animals to link the large number of farmers operating under specified environments provides a sufficiently large herd-group for which a breeding program could be developed.

Effectiveness of fluticasone furoate plus vilanterol on asthma control in clinical practice: an open-label, parallel group, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for management of asthma comes from closely monitored efficacy trials done in highly selected patient groups. There is a need for randomised trials that are closer to usual clinical practice. METHODS: We did an open-label, randomised, controlled, two-arm effectiveness trial at 74 general practice clinics in Salford and South Manchester, UK. Patients aged 18 years or older with a general practitioner's diagnosis of symptomatic asthma and on maintenance inhaler therapy were randomly assigned to initiate treatment with a once-daily inhaled combination of either 100 µg or 200 µg fluticasone furoate with 25 µg vilanterol or optimised usual care and followed up for 12 months. The primary endpoint was the percentage of patients who achieved an asthma control test (ACT) score of 20 or greater or an increase in ACT score from baseline of 3 or greater at 24 weeks (termed responders), in patients with a baseline ACT score less than 20 (the primary effectiveness analysis population). All effectiveness analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01706198. FINDINGS: Between Nov 12, 2012, and Dec 16, 2016, 4725 patients were enrolled and 4233 randomly assigned to initiate treatment with fluticasone furoate and vilanterol (n=2114) or usual care (n=2119). 1207 patients (605 assigned to usual care, 602 to fluticasone furoate and vilanterol) had a baseline ACT score greater than or equal to 20 and were thus excluded from the primary effectiveness analysis population. At week 24, the odds of being a responder were higher for patients who initiated treatment with fluticasone furoate and vilanterol than for those on usual care (977 [71%] of 1373 in the fluticasone furoate and vilanterol group vs 784 [56%] of 1399 in the usual care group; odds ratio [OR] 2·00 [95% CI 1·70-2·34], p<0·0001). At week 24, the adjusted mean ACT score increased by 4·4 points from baseline in patients initiated with fluticasone furoate and vilanterol, compared with 2·8 points in the usual care group (difference 1·6 [95% CI 1·3-2·0], p<0·0001). This result was consistent for the duration of the study. Pneumonia was uncommon, with no differences between groups; there was no difference in other serious adverse events between the groups. INTERPRETATION: In patients with a general practitioner's diagnosis of symptomatic asthma and on maintenance inhaler therapy, initiation of a once-daily treatment regimen of combined fluticasone furoate and vilanterol improved asthma control without increasing the risk of serious adverse events when compared with optimised usual care. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline.