Is grand-parental smoking associated with adolescent obesity? A three-generational study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Data from previous studies consistently suggest that maternal smoking is positively associated with obesity later in life. Whether this association persists across generations is unknown. We examined whether grand-parental smoking was positively associated with overweight status in adolescence. SUBJECT/METHODS: Participants were grandmother-mother-child triads in the Nurses' Health Study II (NHS II), the Nurses Mothers' Cohort Study and the Growing up Today Study (GUTS). Grandmothers provided information on their and their partner's smoking during pregnancy with the child's mother. Information on child's weight and height at ages 12 (N=3094) and 17 (N=3433) was obtained from annual or biennial GUTS questionnaires. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of being overweight or obese, relative to normal weight. RESULTS: Grand-maternal smoking during pregnancy was not associated with overweight status in adolescence. After adjusting for covariates, the OR of being overweight or obese relative to normal weight at age 12 years in girls whose grandmothers smoked 15+ cigarettes daily during pregnancy was 1.21 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-1.98; P(trend)=0.31) and 1.07 (0.65-1.77; P(trend)=0.41) in boys. Grand-paternal smoking during pregnancy was associated with being overweight or obese at age 12 in girls only, but not at age 17 for either sex: the OR for being overweight or obese at age 12 was 1.38 (95% CI 1.01-1.89; P(trend)=0.03) in girls and 1.31 (95% CI 0.97-1.76; P(trend)=0.07) in boys. Among children of non-smoking mothers, the OR for granddaughter obesity for grand-paternal smoking was attenuated and no longer significant (OR 1.28 (95% CI 0.87-1.89; P(trend)=0.18)). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the association between maternal smoking and offspring obesity may not persist beyond the first generation. However, grand-paternal smoking may affect the overweight status of the granddaughter, likely through the association between grand-paternal smoking and maternal smoking.

Comparative cardiovascular safety of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists versus other antidiabetic drugs in routine care: a cohort study.

AIMS: To evaluate the comparative cardiovascular disease (CVD) safety of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) in head-to-head comparisons with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, sulphonylureas or insulin, when added to metformin, as used in 'real-world' patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: Within a large US commercial health plan database linked to laboratory test results, we identified three pairwise 1 : 1 propensity-score-matched cohorts of patients with T2DM aged ≥18 years treated with metformin who initiated a GLP-1 RA or a comparator, i.e. DPP-4 inhibitor (n = 35 534), second-generation sulphonylureas (n = 28 138) or insulin (n = 47 068), between 2005 and 2013. We examined the association between drug initiation and a composite CVD endpoint, comprising hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina, stroke or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During the course of 1 year, there were 13.9 and 13.7 CVD events per 1000 person-years among propensity-score-matched initiators of GLP-1 RAs versus DPP-4 inhibitors [hazard ratio (HR) 1.02; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-1.24]; and 12.1 versus 14.0 events among initiators of GLP-1 RAs versus sulphonylureas (HR 0.86; 95% CI 0.69-1.08). The effect estimates for GLP-1 RAs versus insulin were sensitive to the adjustment for glycated haemoglobin, after which the HR was 1.01 (95% CI 0.73-1.41). Results were robust across several sensitivity analyses, including an as-treated analysis considering up to 8.7 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This large study, performing head-to-head comparisons of GLP-1 RAs with other antidiabetic agents in real-world patients, provides estimates of relative safety precise enough to exclude large differences in CVD risk and adds further understanding to results from recent clinical trials.

Propensity scores for confounder adjustment when assessing the effects of medical interventions using nonexperimental study designs.

Treatment effects, especially when comparing two or more therapeutic alternatives as in comparative effectiveness research, are likely to be heterogeneous across age, gender, co-morbidities and co-medications. Propensity scores (PSs), an alternative to multivariable outcome models to control for measured confounding, have specific advantages in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. Implementing PSs using matching or weighting allows us to estimate different overall treatment effects in differently defined populations. Heterogeneous treatment effects can also be due to unmeasured confounding concentrated in those treated contrary to prediction. Sensitivity analyses based on PSs can help to assess such unmeasured confounding. PSs should be considered a primary or secondary analytic strategy in nonexperimental medical research, including pharmacoepidemiology and nonexperimental comparative effectiveness research.

Power and sample size estimation for the Wilcoxon rank sum test with application to comparisons of C statistics from alternative prediction models.

The Wilcoxon Mann-Whitney (WMW) U test is commonly used in nonparametric two-group comparisons when the normality of the underlying distribution is questionable. There has been some previous work on estimating power based on this procedure (Lehmann, 1998, Nonparametrics). In this article, we present an approach for estimating type II error, which is applicable to any continuous distribution, and also extend the approach to handle grouped continuous data allowing for ties. We apply these results to obtaining standard errors of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for risk-prediction rules under H(1) and for comparing AUROC between competing risk prediction rules applied to the same data set. These results are based on SAS-callable functions to evaluate the bivariate normal integral and are thus easily implemented with standard software.

Renin-angiotensin and endothelial nitric oxide synthase gene polymorphisms are not associated with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The renin-angiotensin system and endothelial function have both been implicated in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between a set of well-characterized genetic variants of the renin-angiotensin system and the endothelial nitric oxide synthase (NOS3) gene and the incidence of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Women's Health Study, United States. SUBJECTS: A total of 24,309 Caucasian women free of diabetes at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Six previously characterized single nucleotide polymorphisms (NOS3 rs1800779, NOS3 rs3918226, NOS3 rs1799983, ACE rs1799752, AGT rs699 and AGTR rs5186) were genotyped. Cox proportional-hazards models were constructed to compare the incidence of type 2 diabetes according to the different genotypes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.2 years (interquartile range 9.6-10.6 years), 999 women developed type 2 diabetes. The age-adjusted incidence rates across the six genotypes were very similar, and ranged from 3.7 to 4.8 cases/1000 person-years of follow-up. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for rs1800779, rs3918226, rs1799983, rs1799752, rs699, and rs5186 were 1.01 (0.92-1.10), 1.09 (0.93-1.27), 0.95 (0.86-1.05), 1.04 (0.95-1.14), 1.08 (0.98-1.18), 1.01 (0.91-1.11), confirming the lack of association between the genotypes and incident type 2 diabetes. Stratification by body mass index revealed essentially unchanged results. Finally, there was no association between NOS3-haplotypes and incident type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSION: We did not find an association between six well-characterized genetic polymorphisms of the renin-angiotensin system or the NOS3 gene and the occurrence of type 2 diabetes.

D-dimer, factor VIII coagulant activity, low-intensity warfarin and the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma D-dimer and factor VIII coagulant activity (FVIIIc) may be associated with the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate D-dimer and FVIIIc as risk factors for recurrent VTE and assess the efficacy of extended low-intensity warfarin (target International Normalized Ratio 1.5-2.0) in preventing recurrence by biomarker level. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the Prevention of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism trial, 508 idiopathic VTE patients treated for > or = 3 months with full-intensity warfarin, and who had stopped warfarin for 7 weeks on average, were randomized to low-intensity warfarin or placebo and followed for 2.1 years for recurrent VTE. Prerandomization blood samples were analysed for D-dimer and FVIIIc. RESULTS: One-third of participants had elevated baseline D-dimer (> or = 500 ng mL(-1)) and one-fourth, elevated FVIIIc (> or = 150 IU dL(-1)). Adjusting for other risk factors, the hazard ratios (HRs) for recurrent VTE with elevated D-dimer or FVIIIc were 2.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-3.4] and 1.5 (95% CI 0.8-2.8), respectively. The association of elevated D-dimer with recurrence was larger among patients with one prior VTE (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3-8.0) than in patients with more than one event (HR 1.4, 95% CI 0.7-2.2). For patients with one prior VTE on placebo, the annual recurrence incidence was 10.9% with elevated D-dimer and 2.9% with normal values. Low-intensity warfarin was equally effective in recurrence risk reduction in those with normal or elevated biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with idiopathic VTE, measurement of D-dimer, but not FVIIIc, might be useful for risk stratification. The efficacy of extended low-intensity warfarin therapy did not vary by biomarker level.

Hormonal factors and risk of recurrent venous thrombosis: the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism trial.

BACKGROUND: In some but not all studies, men with venous thrombosis had a higher risk of recurrence than women. Information on women with initial hormone-related thrombosis is scant. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the incidence of recurrent thrombosis by gender, and among women using exogenous hormones or pregnant/postpartum at the time of index thrombosis. PATIENTS/METHODS: A total of 508 men and women with one or more previous venous thrombosis episodes were observed while participating in a randomized trial of low-intensity warfarin or placebo for 2.1 years. Index thrombosis events during treatment with postmenopausal hormones, oral contraceptives, or during pregnancy, or the puerperium were considered to be hormone-related events. RESULTS: Among 268 men the 3-year probability of recurrent thrombosis was 18.4% (95% confidence intervals; CI 12.3-24.4). Among 109 women without hormone-related thrombosis, the rate was 15.0% (95% CI 6.3-23.8). Among 129 women with hormone-related thrombosis, the rate was 5.0% (95% CI 1.1-8.9). Adjusting for other risk factors and treatment assignment, women had a 39% lower thrombosis recurrence risk than men: hazard ratio (HR) 0.61 (95% CI 0.34-1.08). Women with hormone-related thrombosis had a 58% lower risk than men: HR 0.42 (95% CI 0.19-0.97); and a 46% lower recurrence risk than other women; HR 0.54 (95% CI 0.19-1.54). Women without hormone-related index events had a recurrence rate similar to men; HR 0.83 (95% CI 0.42-1.66). CONCLUSIONS: In this trial population, women had a lower risk of recurrent venous thrombosis than men. This difference was explained by a low risk of recurrence among women with hormone-related index thrombosis.

Low-dose aspirin and incidence of colorectal tumors in a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory, clinical, and epidemiologic studies have recently suggested that regular use of aspirin can reduce colorectal cancer incidence or mortality. However, observational epidemiologic analyses have had limited opportunity to control for confounding bias or to specify aspirin doses used. PURPOSE: Our purpose was to examine the relationship between regular use of low-dose aspirin and incidence of invasive and noninvasive colorectal tumors by utilizing data from the Physicians' Health Study, a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial of aspirin and beta carotene. We also attempted to determine whether invasive cancers among aspirin users were associated with rectal bleeding and early stage at diagnosis. METHODS: The Physicians' Health Study includes 22071 U.S. male physicians. The aspirin arm was terminated in 1988 after a mean follow-up of 5 years. Stage at diagnosis and signs and/or symptoms during presentation were abstracted from medical records. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate relative risk (RR), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and the association between aspirin and bleeding. Differences between aspirin and placebo groups in tumor risk over time were visualized with Kaplan-Meier curves. We assessed the association between aspirin and stage at diagnosis with a Mann-Whitney rank sum statistic for non-parametric comparison of two ordinal distributions. RESULTS: The RR of developing colorectal cancer for aspirin compared with placebo was 1.15 (95% CI = 0.80-1.65). For in situ cancers and polyps, the RR was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.68-1.10). There was no significant trend for decreasing RR by year of follow-up for invasive cancers (P = .09) or noninvasive tumors (P = .96). Aspirin and placebo groups did not differ in stage or prevalence of rectal bleeding at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Regular aspirin use, at a dose adequate for preventing myocardial infarction, was not associated with a substantial reduction in the incidence of colorectal cancer during 5 years of randomized treatment and follow-up. A small decrease in polyps in the aspirin group could not be reliably distinguished from a chance association. Our results suggest that among low-dose aspirin users, (a) colorectal cancer mortality is not likely to be reduced by earlier detection and (b) incidence is not likely to be increased due to aspirin-induced gastrointestinal bleeding. IMPLICATIONS: The potential for a benefit from higher doses of aspirin or longer duration of use should be addressed by more detailed observational epidemiologic studies and prevention trials with longer follow-up of randomized participants.

Maternal and paternal history of myocardial infarction and risk of cardiovascular disease in men and women.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined the effects of paternal and maternal history of myocardial infarction (MI), including age at MI, on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, particularly among women. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively studied 22 071 men from the Physicians' Health Study and 39 876 women from the Women's Health Study with data on parental history and age at MI. Among men, 2654 CVD cases developed over 13.0 years; among women, 563 CVD cases occurred over 6.2 years. Compared with men with no parental history, only maternal, only paternal, and both maternal and paternal history of MI conferred relative risks (RRs) of CVD of 1.71, 1.40, and 1.85; among women, the respective RRs were 1.46, 1.15, and 2.05. For men, maternal age at MI of <50, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, 70 to 79, and >/=80 years had RRs of 1.00, 1.88, 1.88, 1.67, and 1.17; for women, the RRs for maternal age at MI of <50, 50 to 59, and >/=60 years were 2.57, 1.33, and 1.52. Paternal age at MI of <50, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, 70 to 79, and >/=80 years in men had RRs of 2.19, 1.64, 1.42, 1.16, and 0.92; in women, for paternal age at MI of <50, 50 to 59, and >/=60 years, the RRs were 1.63, 1.33, and 1.13. CONCLUSIONS: An early history of parental MI (<60 years) conferred a greater risk of CVD than did MI at older ages. However, an increased risk of CVD remained for maternal age at MI of 70 to 79 years in men and >/=60 years in women, which suggests that any maternal history of MI may be important.

Light-to-moderate alcohol consumption and mortality in the Physicians' Health Study enrollment cohort.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the relationship between light-to-moderate alcohol consumption and cause-specific mortality. BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest a J-shaped relation between alcohol and total mortality in men. A decrease in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality without a significant increase in other causes of mortality may explain the overall risk reduction at light-to-moderate levels. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 89,299 U.S. men from the Physicians' Health Study enrollment cohort who were 40 to 84 years old in 1982 and free of known myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer or liver disease at baseline. Usual alcohol consumption was estimated by a limited food frequency questionnaire. RESULTS: There were 3,216 deaths over 5.5 years of follow-up. We observed a U-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and total mortality. Compared with rarely/never drinkers, consumers of 1, 2 to 4 and 5 to 6 drinks per week and 1 drink per day had significant reductions in risk of death (multivariate relative risks [RRs] of 0.74, 0.77, 0.78 and 0.82, respectively) with no overall benefit or harm detected at the > or =2 drinks per day level (RR = 0.95; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.79 to 1.14). The relationship with CVD mortality was inverse or L-shaped with apparent risk reductions even in the highest category of > or =2 drinks per day (RR = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.01). We found no clear harm or benefit for total or common site-specific cancers. For remaining other cancers, there was a nonsignificant 28% increased risk for those consuming > or =2 drinks per day. CONCLUSIONS: These data support a U-shaped relation between alcohol and total mortality among light-to-moderate drinking men. The U-shaped curve may reflect an inverse association for CVD mortality, no association for common site-specific cancers and a possible positive association for less common cancers.

Use of risk stratification to identify patients with unstable angina likeliest to benefit from an invasive versus conservative management strategy.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to determine whether patient characteristics collected at presentation can identify which patients benefit from immediate coronary angiography and revascularization. BACKGROUND: Risk stratification may offer a method for identifying which patients with unstable angina or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction (NQMI) are likeliest to benefit from invasive management strategies. METHODS: The analysis was based on data from a randomized controlled trial that enrolled 1,473 patients presenting with unstable angina or NQMI who were randomly assigned to an early invasive or early conservative (medical) management strategy. We constructed a risk-stratification score for each patient based on adjusted odds ratios for clinical variables likely to predict adverse outcomes. We stratified all trial subjects by their risk scores and studied the rates of death or myocardial infarction (MI) of the early invasive management strategy in each stratum. RESULTS: The final multivariate model included older age, ST segment depression on presentation, history of complicated angina before presentation, and elevation in baseline creatine kinase-MB fraction. Although patients with a higher risk score had an increased rate of death or MI within 42 days and 365 days (p < 0.001) in both management strategies, early invasive management for patients in the high and very high risk categories was associated with a lower rate of death or MI within 42 days compared with conservative management. No such benefit was seen in patients in the larger group of patients in the very low, low or moderate risk categories (p = 0.03 for the interaction between risk category and management assignment). CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification may be an effective method for identifying those patients with unstable angina or NQMI most likely to benefit from early invasive management. Selective use of early invasive management can have a substantial impact in reducing morbidity and mortality in higher risk patients, but may not be warranted in lower risk patients.

Blood levels of homocysteine and increased risks of cardiovascular disease: causal or casual?

BACKGROUND: Accumulating data from epidemiological studies suggest that individuals with elevated blood levels of homocysteine have increased risks of cardiovascular disease. We reviewed the currently available evidence of an association between homocysteine and cardiovascular disease and examined whether the strength of the evidence varies according to study design. METHODS: We used a computerized MEDLINE literature search, 1966 through September 1998, to identify all epidemiological studies that examined the relationship of homocysteine level with risks of coronary heart or cerebrovascular disease. Two measures of plasma homocysteine level and its association with risk of cardiovascular disease were extracted: mean homocysteine level in cases and controls, and relative risk of cardiovascular disease for elevated homocysteine level. RESULTS: A total of 43 studies were reviewed. Most crosssectional and case-control studies indicated higher mean homocysteine levels (either fasting or after methionine load) and/or a greater frequency of elevated homocysteine level in persons with cardiovascular disease as compared with persons without cardiovascular disease. Results of most prospective studies, however, indicated smaller or no association. The few prospective studies that reported a positive association between homocysteine level and risks of cardiovascular disease included patients with preexisting vascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to cross-sectional and case-control studies, results of prospective studies indicated less or no predictive ability for plasma homocysteine in cardiovascular disease. Instead, elevated homocysteine level may be an acute-phase reactant that is predominantly a marker of atherogenesis, or a consequence of other factors more closely linked to risks of cardiovascular disease. Randomized trials are necessary to test reliably whether lowering homocysteine levels will decrease risks of cardiovascular disease.

Noncompliance with congestive heart failure therapy in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: Noncompliance with long-term medication regimens, such as those employed in the treatment of congestive heart failure (CHF), has been found to be approximately 50%. However, no evaluation has been performed on a population-based cohort of elderly patients beginning the use of digoxin and followed up longitudinally for an extended observation period. METHODS: To study patterns of medication compliance, we conducted a retrospective follow-up of 7247 outpatients aged 65 to 99 years newly prescribed digoxin between 1981 and 1991, with the use of the complete prescription claims file of the New Jersey Medicaid program. Noncompliance was measured in terms of the number of days during the 12-month period after an initial digoxin prescription in which no CHF medication was available to the patient. RESULTS: Patients started on a regimen of digoxin were without digoxin or any other common alternative CHF drug for an average of 111 of the 365 days of follow-up. Only 10% of the population filled enough prescriptions to have daily CHF medication available for the entire year of follow-up. Compliance rates were higher in patients over 85 years of age, women, those taking multiple medications, and those with hospital or nursing home stays before the initiation of therapy. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of patients who begin digoxin therapy end CHF therapy or consume substantially less medication than expected in the first year of therapy. Such high rates of cessation could represent an important impediment to effective CHF therapy.

Glucocorticoids and the risk for initiation of hypoglycemic therapy.

PURPOSE: To quantify risk for the occurrence of hyperglycemia requiring initiation of hypoglycemic therapy in patients treated with oral glucocorticoids. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A case-control study of enrollees in the New Jersey Medicaid program 35 years of age or older. The 11,855 case patients had newly initiated treatment with a hypoglycemic agent (oral or insulin) between 1981 and 1990. The 11,855 controls represented a random sample of other Medicaid enrollees. RESULTS: In patients using oral glucocorticoids, the estimated relative risk for development of hyperglycemia requiring treatment was 2.23 (95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.59) as compared with nonusers. Risk increased with increasing average daily steroid dose, in hydrocortisone-equivalent milligrams; the odds ratio was 1.77 for 1 to 39 mg/d, 3.02 for 40 to 79 mg/d, 5.82 for 80 to 119 mg/d, and 10.34 for 120 mg/d or more. The estimated effects persisted after adjustment for a variety of potentially confounding demographic, health service utilization, and medication use variables. CONCLUSION: The findings of this population-based study quantify the risk of developing hyperglycemia requiring hypoglycemic therapy after oral glucocorticoid use. The magnitude of risk increases substantially with increasing glucocorticoid dose. These findings demonstrate the utility of large-scale health claims databases in defining the risk of important adverse drug effects.

Pulse pressure and mortality in older people.

BACKGROUND: In older people, observational data are unclear concerning the relationships of systolic and diastolic blood pressure with cardiovascular and total mortality. We examined which combinations of systolic, diastolic, pulse, and mean arterial pressure best predict total and cardiovascular mortality in older adults. METHODS: In 1981, the National Institute on Aging initiated its population-based Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly in 3 communities. At baseline, 9431 participants, aged 65 to 102 years, had blood pressure measurements, along with measures of medical history, use of medications, disability, and physical function. During an average follow-up of 10. 6 years among survivors, 4528 participants died, 2304 of cardiovascular causes. RESULTS: In age- and sex-adjusted survival analyses, the lowest overall death rate occurred among those with systolic pressure less than 130 mm Hg and diastolic pressure 80 to 89 mm Hg; relative to this group, the highest death rate occurred in those with systolic pressure of 160 mm Hg or more and diastolic pressure less than 70 mm Hg (relative risk, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-2.46). Both low diastolic pressure and elevated systolic pressure independently predicted increases in cardiovascular (P<.001) and total (P<.001) mortality. Pulse pressure correlated strongly with systolic pressure (R = 0.82) but was a slightly stronger predictor of both cardiovascular and total mortality. In a model containing pulse pressure and other potentially confounding variables, diastolic pressure (P =.88) and mean arterial pressure (P =.11) had no significant association with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Pulse pressure appears to be the best single measure of blood pressure in predicting mortality in older people and helps explain apparently discrepant results for low diastolic blood pressure.

Adherence to aspirin in the prevention of myocardial infarction. The Physicians' Health Study.

BACKGROUND: The primary aim of this article was to explore, in subgroup analyses, whether participants with differing frequencies of aspirin consumption in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, primary prevention trial had different magnitudes of benefit in the prevention of myocardial infarction. Secondary aims were to identify factors associated with adherence and to examine the relationship of adherence with cardiovascular outcomes in the placebo group. METHODS: The Physicians' Health Study randomized 22071 US male physicians who were free of myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular disease at baseline. The average follow-up during the aspirin component of the trial was 60.2 months. Baseline cardiovascular risk factors and adherence to therapy during the trial were assessed by questionnaire; cardiovascular outcomes were reported by questionnaire and confirmed by record review by an Endpoints Committee. RESULTS: Several cardiovascular disease risk factors assessed at baseline were related to poor adherence (taking < 50% of study tablets): cigarette smoking, obesity, lack of exercise, and history of angina. After adjusting for baseline differences in risk factors, participants in the aspirin group with excellent adherence (taking at least 95% of study tablets) had a statistically significant 51% reduction in myocardial infarction compared with those with excellent adherence in the placebo group. Those in the aspirin group with poor adherence had a smaller, non-significant reduction in risk of myocardial infarction (a 17% reduction associated with taking < 50% of study tablets). In the placebo group better adherence was not associated with decreased risk of myocardial infarction, but was strongly associated with decreased risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: These subgroup data raise the possibility that a less than alternate day aspirin regimen may yield lower benefits in the prevention of myocardial infarction. Alternate explanations are that these analyses reflect either the play of chance or effects of uncontrolled confounding since comparisons were no longer randomized. Randomized trials are necessary to address the question of frequency of administration of aspirin to achieve optimal benefits in primary prevention of myocardial infarction.

Academic detailing to improve use of broad-spectrum antibiotics at an academic medical center.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic misuse is common and costly and may promote antibiotic resistance. We tested the efficacy of a targeted one-on-one educational program ("academic detailing") designed to improve the appropriateness of broad-spectrum antibiotic use. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial was conducted in a large US teaching hospital. During an 18-week study period, 17 general medical, oncology, and cardiology services either received academic detailing or did not. The intervention was prompted by an order for either levofloxacin or ceftazidime that led to a computer-based review of data for that patient. Orders for the 2 target antibiotics deemed unnecessary by a priori criteria were included in the study. The primary outcome examined was the number of days that unnecessary levofloxacin or ceftazidime was administered in intervention and control groups. RESULTS: Before the trial, intervention and control services had similar prescribing patterns for the target antibiotics; the drugs were used for similar indications throughout the study period. During the intervention, there was a reduction of 37% in days of unnecessary levofloxacin or ceftazidime use per 2-week interval on services randomized to the educational intervention vs control services (P< .001). In multivariable analyses controlling for baseline prescribing and study interval, the rate of unnecessary use of the 2 target antibiotics was reduced by 41% on the intervention services compared with controls (95% confidence interval, 44%-78%; P< .001). Length of stay, intensive care unit transfers, readmission rates, and in-hospital death rates were similar in both groups (P> or =.10 for all). CONCLUSION: Targeted one-on-one education is a practical, effective, and safe method for reducing excessive broad-spectrum antibiotic use.

Six-year effect of depressive symptoms on the course of physical disability in community-living older adults.

BACKGROUND: Late-life depression affects physical health and impedes recovery from physical disability. But whether milder symptoms that occur frequently in the general population increase the risk of developing a disability or decrease the likelihood of recovery remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of mild symptoms of depression, assessed by a reduced version (10 items, ranging from 0-10) of the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale, on the course of physical disability, assessed by items from the Katz Activities of Daily Living Scale, the Rosow-Breslau Functional Health Scale, and the Nagi Index. METHODS: A population-based longitudinal study was conducted, with 6 follow-up interviews of 3434 community-dwelling persons aged 65 years and older in East Boston, Mass. RESULTS: The likelihood of becoming disabled increased with each additional symptom of depression (for the Katz measure: odds ratio, 1.16 per symptom; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.19; for the Rosow-Breslau measure: odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.16; and for the Nagi measure: odds ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.19). As the number of depressive symptoms increased, the likelihood of recovering from a physical disability decreased (for the Katz measure: odds ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.93-0.99; for the Rosow-Breslau measure: odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.89; and for the Nagi measure: odds ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.91). This effect was not accounted for by age, sex, level of educational attainment, body mass index, or chronic health conditions. CONCLUSION: Mild depressive symptoms in older persons (those aged > or =65 years) are associated with an increased likelihood of becoming disabled and a decreased chance of recovery, regardless of age, sex, and other factors that contribute to physical disability.

Prospective study of moderate alcohol consumption and mortality in US male physicians.

BACKGROUND: Although moderate alcohol consumption decreases the risk of myocardial infarction, its impact on all-cause mortality among apparently healthy men is unclear. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study in 22071 men in the Physicians' Health Study. Participants were aged 40 to 84 years and had no history of myocardial infarction, stroke, transient ischemic attack, or cancer. RESULTS: There were 1206 deaths (394 cardiovascular, 488 cancer, and 324 other) during 10.7 years of follow-up. Compared with participants who consumed less than 1 drink per week, the relative risk (95% confidence interval) of all-cause mortality for men who consumed 2 to 4 drinks per week was 0.72 (0.59-0.87); 5 to 6 drinks per week, 0.79 (0.64-0.99); 1 drink per day, 0.98 (0.84-1.15); and the highest drinking group (> or = 2 drinks per day), 1.51 (1.17-1.95). This association was similar with either nondrinkers or occasional drinkers used as the reference group and was not subject to material confounding or effect modification by any factor examined. The overall relationship was the result of a J-shaped association with cardiovascular mortality, an increase in cancer deaths for the highest drinking group, and a U-shaped association with other causes of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of all-cause mortality varies by level of alcohol consumption. In this apparently healthy cohort, men who consumed 2 to 6 drinks per week had the most favorable mortality profile and men who had 2 or more drinks per day the most unfavorable mortality profile. The difference between consumption of small and large amounts of alcohol may mean the difference between preventing and causing excess mortality.

Use of antihypertensive drugs and trends in blood pressure in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: During the 1980s data became available from randomized trials concerning the clear benefits of treating hypertension in the elderly. In three large communities, we examined the impact of these findings on rates of treatment, use of specific antihypertensive drugs, and rates of elevated blood pressure as well as distributions of levels. METHODS: In 1981 the National Institute on Aging initiated population-based cohort studies in the residents of three communities who were 65 years and older. East Boston, Mass; Washington and Iowa counties, Iowa; and New Haven, Conn. Participation rates ranged from 80% to 85% across sites with 10,294 community-dwelling participants in the combined cohorts. Baseline evaluation included inhome blood pressure assessment and medication inventory. Repeated in-home evaluations occurred 3 and 6 years after baseline and follow-up rates ranged from 71% to 88%. RESULTS: Use of antihypertensive drugs increased over time in all three communities: the age- and sex-adjusted rates of use were between 14% and 32% higher in 1988 and 1989 relative to 1982 and 1983. Parallel declines in the use of thiazide diuretics occurred in all three populations along with large increases in the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and calcium channel blockers. In East Boston and New Haven mean systolic blood pressure decreased substantially over time and the prevalence of elevated systolic pressure (> or = 160 mmHg) decreased overall as well as by age and sex. In Iowa the mean levels of systolic blood pressure were lowest at baseline and increased slightly. CONCLUSIONS: The reported evidence about the benefits of treatment for hypertension in the elderly was followed by substantial increases in treatment rates. The use of drugs with proven efficacy declined while the use of newer agents with theoretical advantages, not yet tested in clinical trials of mortality, increased. In the United States, the ongoing therapeutic efforts to lower elevated blood pressure in elderly populations may be contributing to the continuing decline in cardiovascular and stroke mortality.