"Decision tree analysis for assessing the risk of post-traumatic haemorrhage after mild traumatic brain injury in patients on oral anticoagulant therapy".

BACKGROUND: The presence of oral anticoagulant therapy (OAT) alone, regardless of patient condition, is an indication for CT imaging in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI). Currently, no specific clinical decision rules are available for OAT patients. The aim of the study was to identify which clinical risk factors easily identifiable at first ED evaluation may be associated with an increased risk of post-traumatic intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) in OAT patients who suffered an MTBI. METHODS: Three thousand fifty-four patients in OAT with MTBI from four Italian centers were retrospectively considered. A decision tree analysis using the classification and regression tree (CART) method was conducted to evaluate both the pre- and post-traumatic clinical risk factors most associated with the presence of post-traumatic ICH after MTBI and their possible role in determining the patient's risk. The decision tree analysis used all clinical risk factors identified at the first ED evaluation as input predictor variables. RESULTS: ICH following MTBI was present in 9.5% of patients (290/3054). The CART model created a decision tree using 5 risk factors, post-traumatic amnesia, post-traumatic transitory loss of consciousness, greater trauma dynamic, GCS less than 15, evidence of trauma above the clavicles, capable of stratifying patients into different increasing levels of ICH risk (from 2.5 to 61.4%). The absence of concussion and neurological alteration at admission appears to significantly reduce the possible presence of ICH. CONCLUSIONS: The machine-learning-based CART model identified distinct prognostic groups of patients with distinct outcomes according to on clinical risk factors. Decision trees can be useful as guidance in patient selection and risk stratification of patients in OAT with MTBI.

Hemorrhagic risk and intracranial complications in patients with minor head injury (MHI) taking different oral anticoagulants.

The correlation between direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or Vitamin K Antagonist (VKAs) intake and the incidence of intracranial complications after minor head injury (MHI) is still object of debate: preliminary observation seems to demonstrate lower incidence in intracranial bleeding complications (ICH) in patients taking DOACs than VKA. METHODS. This prospective and observational study was performed to clarify the incidence of ICH in patients in DOACs compared to VKAs. Between January 2016 and April 2018 we have recorded in our ED patients with MHI taking oral anticoagulants. Their hemorragic risk score was calculated and recorded for each patient (Has Bled, Atria and Orbit). RESULTS A total of 402 patients with MHI taking anticoagulant were collected: 226 were receiving one of the four DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban or edoxaban) while 176 patients were in therapy with VKA. The rate of intracranial complications was significantly lower in patients receiving DOACs than in patients treated with VKA (p < 0.01). In the VKA group two patients died because of intracranial bleeding. No deaths were recorded in the DOACs group. DISCUSSION patients with MHI who take DOACs have a significant lower incidence of intracranial bleeding complications than those treated with vitamin k antagonists. This statement is supported by the observation that the hemorrhagic risk, measured according to the chosen scores, was similar between the two groups.

Intracranial complications after minor head injury (MHI) in patients taking vitamin K antagonists (VKA) or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs).

INTRODUCTION: The correlation between chronic direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) intake and the incidence of intracranial complications after minor head injury (MHI) is still not well defined. This study examined the incidence of complications in patients receiving vitamin K antagonists (VKA) or DOACs observed in the emergency department (ED) for MHI. METHODS: Two hundred twenty-five patients affected by MHI and receiving oral anticoagulants were recorded between January and December 2016, distinguishing those treated with VKA (118) from those receiving DOACs (107). All patients underwent a CT scan and were observed for 24h in the ED. Follow-up was performed up to 1month after the head trauma. RESULTS: The rate of intracranial hemorrhage was significantly lower in patients treated with DOACs than in patients treated with VKA. We recorded 2 deaths among the 12 patients who experienced intracranial complications in the VKA group. DISCUSSION: DOACs seem to have a more favorable safety profile than VKA in patients affected by MHI. This observation is important in light of the increasing number of elderly patients who are receiving anticoagulant therapy.

Minor head injury in the elderly at very low risk: a retrospective study of 6 years in an Emergency Department (ED).

INTRODUCTION: Mild head injury (MHI) is a common clinical problem in emergency departments (EDs). Long-standing debate is still going on about MHI in the elderly: current guidelines recommend to perform a CT scan on this group. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective study by reviewing patients older than 65 years, evaluated in our ED for which a CT scan of the head was performed for MHI, between 2004 and 2010. According to Italian Guidelines, we considered only patients with low-risk MHI. RESULTS: We considered 2149 eligible patients: we recorded 47 pathological acute findings on CT scan (2.18%), but only 3 patients (0.14%) underwent neurosurgery. We analysed our patients according to different age groups: in patients in the 65- to 79-year-old group, we documented pathological findings on CT in 0.66% of cases, with a significant increase in the group older than 80 years, with a rate of 3.33% of acute findings on CT (OR 5.22, P < .001); 617 patients were on antiplatelet therapy: 22 of these patients (3.72%) had a pathological finding on CT scan (OR 2.23, P < .005). DISCUSSION: Our retrospective analyses demonstrated that the incidence of intracranial complications after MHI is not different from that of the general population, and based on this finding, a CT does not seem to be necessary, at least up to 80 years old. Our data suggest that antiplatelet therapy could be a significant risk factor. Our results suggest that elderly patients between 65 and 79 years old without risk factors could be managed as younger patients.