Extreme solar storms and the quest for exact dating with radiocarbon.

Radiocarbon (14C) is essential for creating chronologies to study the timings and drivers of pivotal events in human history and the Earth system over the past 55,000 years. It is also a fundamental proxy for investigating solar processes, including the potential of the Sun for extreme activity. Until now, fluctuations in past atmospheric 14C levels have limited the dating precision possible using radiocarbon. However, the discovery of solar super-storms known as extreme solar particle events (ESPEs) has driven a series of advances with the potential to transform the calendar-age precision of radiocarbon dating. Organic materials containing unique 14C ESPE signatures can now be dated to annual precision. In parallel, the search for further storms using high-precision annual 14C measurements has revealed fine-scaled variations that can be used to improve calendar-age precision, even in periods that lack ESPEs. Furthermore, the newly identified 14C fluctuations provide unprecedented insight into solar variability and the carbon cycle. Here, we review the current state of knowledge and share our insights into these rapidly developing, diverse research fields. We identify links between radiocarbon, archaeology, solar physics and Earth science to stimulate transdisciplinary collaboration, and we propose how researchers can take advantage of these recent developments.

Radiocarbon: A key tracer for studying Earth's dynamo, climate system, carbon cycle, and Sun.

Radiocarbon (14C), as a consequence of its production in the atmosphere and subsequent dispersal through the carbon cycle, is a key tracer for studying the Earth system. Knowledge of past 14C levels improves our understanding of climate processes, the Sun, the geodynamo, and the carbon cycle. Recently updated radiocarbon calibration curves (IntCal20, SHCal20, and Marine20) provide unprecedented accuracy in our estimates of 14C levels back to the limit of the 14C technique (~55,000 years ago). Such improved detail creates new opportunities to probe the Earth and climate system more reliably and at finer scale. We summarize the advances that have underpinned this revised set of radiocarbon calibration curves, survey the broad scientific landscape where additional detail on past 14C provides insight, and identify open challenges for the future.

A model for a seismic computerized alert network.

In large earthquakes, damaging ground motions may occur at large epicentral distances. Because of the relatively slow speed of seismic waves, it is possible to construct a system to provide short-term warning (as much as several tens of seconds) of imminent strong ground motions from major earthquakes. Automated safety responses could be triggered by users after receiving estimates of the arrival time and strength of shaking expected at an individual site. Although warning times are likely to be short for areas greatly damaged by relatively numerous earthquakes of moderate size, large areas that experience very strong shaking during great earthquakes would receive longer warning times.

Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone.

Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M(w)) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M(w) 8) or a giant earthquake (M(w) 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M(w) less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M(w) up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis.

Response of high-rise and base-isolated buildings to a hypothetical mw 7.0 blind thrust earthquake.

High-rise flexible-frame buildings are commonly considered to be resistant to shaking from the largest earthquakes. In addition, base isolation has become increasingly popular for critical buildings that should still function after an earthquake. How will these two types of buildings perform if a large earthquake occurs beneath a metropolitan area? To answer this question, we simulated the near-source ground motions of a M(w) 7.0 thrust earthquake and then mathematically modeled the response of a 20-story steel-frame building and a 3-story base-isolated building. The synthesized ground motions were characterized by large displacement pulses (up to 2 meters) and large ground velocities. These ground motions caused large deformation and possible collapse of the frame building, and they required exceptional measures in the design of the base-isolated building if it was to remain functional.

Point mugu, california, earthquake of 21 february 1973 and its aftershocks.

Seismological investigations show that the Point Mugu earthquake involved north-south crustal shortening deep within the complex fault zone that marks the southern front of the Transverse Ranges province. This earthquake sequence results from the same stress system responsible for the deformation in this province in the Pliocene through Holocene and draws attention to the significant earthquake hazard that the southern frontal fault system poses to the Los Angeles metropolitan area.

Near-field investigations of the landers earthquake sequence, april to july 1992.

The Landers earthquake, which had a moment magnitude (M(w)) of 7.3, was the largest earthquake to strike the contiguous United States in 40 years. This earthquake resulted from the rupture of five major and many minor right-lateral faults near the southern end of the eastern California shear zone, just north of the San Andreas fault. Its M(w) 6.1 preshock and M(w) 6.2 aftershock had their own aftershocks and foreshocks. Surficial geological observations are consistent with local and far-field seismologic observations of the earthquake. Large surficial offsets (as great as 6 meters) and a relatively short rupture length (85 kilometers) are consistent with seismological calculations of a high stress drop (200 bars), which is in turn consistent with an apparently long recurrence interval for these faults.

The hidden simplicity of subduction megathrust earthquakes.

The largest observed earthquakes occur on subduction interfaces and frequently cause widespread damage and loss of life. Understanding the rupture behavior of megathrust events is crucial for earthquake rupture physics, as well as for earthquake early-warning systems. However, the large variability in behavior between individual events seemingly defies a description with a simple unifying model. Here we use three source time function (STF) data sets for subduction zone earthquakes, with moment magnitude Mw ≥ 7, and show that such large ruptures share a typical universal behavior. The median STF is scalable between events with different sizes, grows linearly, and is nearly triangular. The deviations from the median behavior are multiplicative and Gaussian-that is, they are proportionally larger for larger events. Our observations suggest that earthquake magnitudes cannot be predicted from the characteristics of rupture onsets.

Tree height strongly affects estimates of water-use efficiency responses to climate and CO2 using isotopes.

Various studies report substantial increases in intrinsic water-use efficiency (W i ), estimated using carbon isotopes in tree rings, suggesting trees are gaining increasingly more carbon per unit water lost due to increases in atmospheric CO2. Usually, reconstructions do not, however, correct for the effect of intrinsic developmental changes in W i as trees grow larger. Here we show, by comparing W i across varying tree sizes at one CO2 level, that ignoring such developmental effects can severely affect inferences of trees' W i . W i doubled or even tripled over a trees' lifespan in three broadleaf species due to changes in tree height and light availability alone, and there are also weak trends for Pine trees. Developmental trends in broadleaf species are as large as the trends previously assigned to CO2 and climate. Credible future tree ring isotope studies require explicit accounting for species-specific developmental effects before CO2 and climate effects are inferred.Intrinsic water-use efficiency (W i ) reconstructions using tree rings often disregard developmental changes in W i as trees age. Here, the authors compare W i across varying tree sizes at a fixed CO2 level and show that ignoring developmental changes impacts conclusions on trees' W i responses to CO2 or climate.

An immunoepidemiological approach to asthma: identification of in-vitro T-cell response patterns associated with different wheezing phenotypes in children.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests that patterns of T-cell immunity to inhalant allergens in genetically diverse human populations are more heterogeneous than previously assumed, and that covert differences in expression patterns might underlie variations in airway disease phenotypes. We tested this proposition in a community sample of children. METHODS: We analysed data from 172 individuals who had been recruited antenatally to a longitudinal birth cohort study. Of the 194 birth cohort participants, data from the 147 probands (age range 8.6-13.5 years) who consented to blood collection were included along with data from 25 consenting siblings (mean age 11 years [range 7.4-17.4]). We ascertained clinical phenotypes related to asthma and allergy. We measured T-cell responses to allergens and mitogens, together with blood eosinophils and IgE/IgG antibodies, and assessed associations between these indices and clinical phenotypes. FINDINGS: Atopy was associated with allergen-specific T-helper (Th)2 responses dominated by interleukin 4, interleukin 5, interleukin 9, interleukin 13, whereas interleukin 10, tumour necrosis factor alpha, and interferon gamma responses were common to both atopics and non-atopics. The wheal size from skin prick with allergen was positively associated with in-vitro interleukin 5 and interferon gamma responses, and negatively associated with interleukin 10. Asthma, especially in atopics, was strongly associated with eosinophilia/interleukin 5, and bronchial hyper-responsiveness (BHR) was associated with eosinophilia plus polyclonal interferon gamma production. BHR in non-atopics was associated with elevated allergen-specific and polyclonal interleukin 10 production. INTERPRETATION: Parallel immunological and clinical profiling of children identified distinctive immune response patterns related to asthma and wheeze compared with BHR, in atopics non-atopics. Immunological hyper-responsiveness, including within the Th1 cytokine compartment, is identified as a hallmark of BHR. RELEVANCE TO PRACTICE: These findings highlight the heterogeneity of immune response patterns in asthmatic children, including those with seemingly homogeneous Th2-driven atopic asthma. Further elucidation of the covert relationships between wheezing phenotypes and underlying immunophenotypes in this age group will potentially lead to more effective treatments for what is an unexpectedly heterogeneous collection of disease subtypes.

Transfected murine cells expressing HLA class II can be used to generate alloreactive human T cell clones.

Alloreactive human T cells are conventionally generated in vitro using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). The disadvantage of such an approach is that PBMCs express multiple HLA class II molecules and, as a consequence, it is difficult to generate T cells specific for an individual HLA alloantigen. This paper describes a technique in which T cell clones can be generated using stimulators which do express only one alloantigen. This has permitted the generation of HLA-DR-specific T cell clones and will be applied to produce T cell clones specific for other isotypes which cannot easily be obtained using other techniques. Murine DAP.3 cells were transfected with cDNAs encoding human class II molecules and used to stimulate primary alloresponses by purified human CD4+ T cells. The cloning of these T cells provided a good yield of cells allospecific for the class II molecule expressed by the transfected cells. A large percentage of the T cell clones were able to recognise human cells, suggesting that specificity for DR-bound peptides of mouse origin does not limit the applicability of this approach. Despite having been raised against mouse stimulators cells, the responses of the T cell clones to alloantigen-expressing human B cell lines were profoundly inhibited by anti-human LFA-3 monoclonal antibody. The possible mechanisms responsible for these results are discussed.

Molecular mimicry by major histocompatibility complex molecules and peptides accounts for some alloresponses.

One explanation offered for the uniquely high precursor frequencies of T cells which recognize allogeneic major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules, and their lack of self-MHC restriction, is that the alloreactive cells are polyclonal populations the primary specificity of which is self-MHC plus peptide X1, X2, ... Xn. These are postulated to cross-react with allo-MHC plus peptides Y1, Y2, ... Yn. It has been further suggested that the structural basis for the crossreactivity between different MHC alleles is the similarity in amino acid sequence of that part of the molecule predicted to make contact with the T cell receptor (TcR). In order to test this concept, T cells were obtained with dual specificity for influenza haemagglutinin (HA), restricted by HLA-DR1Dw1, and for DR4Dw4/Dw14 expressed on allogeneic human B cell lines, and the specificity of one clone was studied in detail. The exposed, TcR-contacting surfaces of these two DR molecules are predicted to be identical. Although the HA-specific response was stimulated by DR1-expressing mouse DAP.3 transfectants, DAP.3 cells expressing the alloantigen DR4Dw4 were unable to stimulate, possibly because of a failure to present the necessary human peptide for anti-DR4 allorecognition. Therefore, the effects of pulsing the DR4Dw4-expressing DAP.3 cells with the HA peptide were examined. This peptide is known to bind to both DR1 and DR4. Addition of the HA peptide restored the anti-DR4Dw4 response. These data support the concept that allorecognition in some responder/stimulator combinations can be explained by cross-reactivity at the level of the MHC molecule and the peptide.

Nucleoside transport in guinea pig myocytes. Comparison of the affinities and transport velocities for adenosine and 2-chloroadenosine.

The affinities of adenosine and 2-chloroadenosine for the nucleoside transport system of guinea pig myocytes were evaluated indirectly by studying the inhibition of the binding of [3H]nitrobenzylthioinosine and directly by measuring the influx of [3H]radiolabeled substrates. Maximal transport velocities of the two nucleosides were also obtained. [3H]Nitrobenzylthioinosine bound to a single class of high-affinity sites (KD of 0.8 nM) which possessed a maximal binding capacity (Bmax) of 870,000 sites/cell. Adenosine, 2-chloroadenosine or the nucleoside transport inhibitor, dipyridamole, competitively inhibited the site-specific binding of [3H]nitrobenzylthioinosine with Ki values of 318 microM, 22 microM and 75 nM respectively. Both [3H]adenosine and [3H]2-chloroadenosine entered myocytes in a saturable and inhibitible manner. Observed transport kinetic constants (Km and Vmax) were 146 microM and 24.2 pmoles/10(6) cells/sec, respectively, for adenosine and 36 microM and 11.7 pmoles/10(6) cells/sec, respectively for 2-chloroadenosine. Affinities of adenosine, 2-chloroadenosine, nitrobenzylthioinosine and dipyridamole for the nucleoside transport system derived from binding and influx methodologies were equivalent which confirms that [3H]nitrobenzylthioinosine binding sites are closely associated with the nucleoside transporter.

A regional integrated information system to assure maternal-child health services: a progress report.

Priorities for improving the health of our nation include rebuilding the public health infrastructure through increasing assessment, policy development, and assurance capacities in our communities. Capacity building necessitates formalizing and strengthening public health practice linkages to achieve Year 2000 objectives. Determining progress in achieving objectives requires development of public health infrastructure surveillance and data system capabilities. The Tracking Center of Tracking and Outreach Program for St. Louis (TOPS), through unique collaboration among academic and practice partners, laid the foundation for a Regional Integrated Information System (RIIS) by developing a centralized maternal-child health data base for prenatal and pediatric care providers. The RIIS model provides an example of a capacity building system designed to provide public health surveillance, assessment, planning, and evaluation capabilities. Medical Subject Headings (MeSH): health information systems, prenatal care, immunization, maternal-child health care, public health surveillance.

The 15N/14N ratios of plants in South Africa and Namibia: relationship to climate and coastal/saline environments.

Data are presented for the 15N/14N ratios of 140 indigenous terrestrial plants from a wide variety of natural habitats in South Africa and Namibia. Over much of the area, from high-rainfall mountains to arid deserts, the δ 15N values of plants lie typically in the range -1 to +6‰; with no evident differences between C3 plants and C4 grasses. There is a slight correlation between δ 15N and aridity, but this is less marked than the correlation between the δ 15N values of animal bones and aridity. At coastal or saline sites, however, the mean δ 15N values for plants are higher than those at nearby inland or non-saline sites-e.g.: arid Namib coast (10‰ higher than inland Namib); wet Natal beach (5‰ higher than inland Natal); saline soils 500 km from coast (4‰ higher than non-saline soils). High values were also found at one site where there were no marked coastal or saline influences. These environmental effects on the isotopic composition of plants will extend upwards to the animals and humans they support. They therefore have important consequences for the use of nitrogen isotope data in the study of the dietary habits and trophic structures of modern and prehistoric communities.

Potential canopy influences on the isotopic composition of nitrogen and sulphur in atmospheric deposition.

Isotopic studies of nitrogen and sulphur inputs to plant/soil systems commonly rely on limited published data for the 15N/14N and 34S/32S ratios of nitrate, ammonium and sulphate in rainfall. For systems with well-developed plant canopies, however, inputs of these ions from dry deposition or particulates may be more important than rainfall. The manner in which isotopic fractionation between ions and gases may lead to dry deposition and particulates having 15N/14N or 34S/32S ratios different from those of rainfall is considered. Data for rainfall and throughfall in coniferous plantations are then discussed, and suggest that: (1) in line with expectations, nitrate washed from the canopy has 15N/14N ratios higher than those in rainfall; (2) the 15N/14N ratios of ammonium washed from the canopy are variable, with high ratios being found for canopies of higher pH in conditions of elevated ambient ammonia gas concentrations; and (3) in accord with expectations and previous work, 34S/32S ratios of sulphate washed from the canopy are not substantially different from those in rainfall. The study suggests that if atmospheric inputs are relevant to isotopic studies of the sources of nitrogen for canopied systems, then confident interpretation will require analysis of these inputs.

Initiation of sexual activity among female adolescents.

PIP: According to the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth, 46% women aged 15-19 had experienced premarital intercourse. Projections based on this study show that by their 20th birthdays, 70% of all women in the US will have experienced premarital intercourse. This article examines the effects of various factors on the likelihood that teenagers will become sexually active. Data for this study were taken from the National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle III. Fieldwork was done in 1982 and included interviews of 7969 women aged 15-44. Data include background characteristics, measures of fertility and contraception, measures of fecundity and birth expectations, use of family planning services, and the respondent's marital history. The study concludes that family stability (intact families), Hispanic ethnicity, high parental education, religious affiliation, regular church attendance, and reproductive education decrease the occurrence of 1st intercourse. Other factors characterize an environment that is unstable and unstructured and has a liberalizing influence upon 1st intercourse. Teens from broken homes, blacks, and the lower social classes are more likely to initiate intercourse. Geographic factors have a very small influence upon the initiation of sexual activity among teens. Similar patterns of influence appear regarding contraceptive use. The same factors that encourage stability, such as high father's education, Catholic or Jewish religious affiliation, religious attendance, and reproductive instruction shift the odds in favor of contracepted rather than noncontracepted sex. Family instability and low social class increase the risk that 1st intercourse will not be contracepted. Providing too much sex education, such as instruction on birth control, may actually contribute to the leniency of the environment, although the authors find no evidence that school-based birth control instruction increases the chances that contraceptives will be used. Environments that are too restrictive increase the chance that 1st intercourse will be noncontracepted. In sum, adolescents need an environment balanced between the liberal and conservative extremes to reduce the rate of 1st intercourse and to increase the use of contraception at intercourse.^ieng