Association of NT-proBNP and BNP With Future Clinical Outcomes in Patients With ESKD: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Use of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal pro-BNP (NT-proBNP) for cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) remains unclear. We examined the associations between different threshold elevations of these peptide levels and clinical outcomes in patients with ESKD. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. SETTING & STUDY POPULATIONS: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (through September 2019) for observational studies of adults with ESKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate≤15mL/min/1.73m2 or receiving maintenance dialysis). SELECTION CRITERIA FOR STUDIES: Studies that reported NT-proBNP or BNP levels and future CV events, CV mortality, or all-cause mortality. DATA EXTRACTION: Cohort characteristics and measures of risk associated with study-specified peptide thresholds. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Hazard ratios (HRs) for clinical outcomes associated with different NT-proBNP and BNP ranges were categorized into common thresholds and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified 61 studies for inclusion in our review (19,688 people). 49 provided sufficient detail for inclusion in meta-analysis. Pooled unadjusted HRs for CV mortality were progressively greater for greater thresholds of NT-proBNP, from 1.45 (95% CI, 0.91-2.32) for levels>2,000pg/mL to 5.95 (95% CI, 4.23-8.37) for levels>15,000pg/mL. Risk for all-cause mortality was significantly higher at all NT-proBNP thresholds ranging from> 1,000 to> 20,000pg/mL (HR range, 1.53-4.00). BNP levels>550pg/mL were associated with increased risk for CV mortality (HR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.49-4.33), while the risks for all-cause mortality were 2.04 (95% CI, 0.82-5.12) at BNP levels>100pg/mL and 2.97 (95% CI, 2.21-3.98) at BNP levels>550pg/mL. Adjusted analyses demonstrated similarly greater risks for CV and all-cause mortality with greater NT-proBNP concentrations. LIMITATIONS: Incomplete outcome reporting and risk for outcome reporting bias. Estimation of risk for CV events for specific thresholds of both peptides were limited by poor precision. CONCLUSIONS: ESKD-specific NT-proBNP and BNP level thresholds of elevation are associated with increased risk for CV and all-cause mortality. This information may help guide interpretation of NT-proBNP and BNP levels in patients with ESKD.

The psychosocial cost burden of cancer: A systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Psychosocial costs, or quality of life costs, account for psychological distress, pain, suffering and other negative experiences associated with cancer. They contribute to the overall economic burden of cancer that patients experience. But this category of costs remains poorly understood. This hinders opportunities to make the best cancer control policy decisions. This study explored the psychosocial cost burden associated with cancer, how studies measure psychosocial costs and the impact of this burden. METHODS: A systematic literature review of academic and grey literature published from 2008 to 2018 was conducted by searching electronic databases, guided by the Institute of Medicine's conceptualization of psychosocial burden. Results were analyzed using a narrative synthesis and a weighted proportion of populations affected was calculated. Study quality was assessed using the Ottawa-Newcastle instrument. RESULTS: A total of 25 studies were included. There was variation in how psychosocial costs were conceptualized and an inconsistent approach to measurement. Most studies measured social dimensions and focused on the financial consequences of paying for care. Fewer studies assessed costs associated with the other domains of this burden, including psychological, physical, and spiritual dimensions. Fourty-four percent of cancer populations studied were impacted by psychosocial costs and this varied by disease site (38%-71%). Two studies monetized the psychosocial cost burden, estimating a lifetime cost per case ranging from CAD$427753 to CAD$528769. Studies were of varying quality; 60% of cross-sectional studies had a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Consistency in approach to measurement would help to elevate this issue for researchers and decision makers. At two-thirds of the total economic burden of cancer, economic evaluations should account for psychosocial costs to better inform decision-making. More support is needed to address the psychosocial cost burden faced by patients and their families.

Psoriatic arthritis screening: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the accuracy and characteristics of different questionnaire-based PsA screening tools. METHODS: A systematic review of MEDLINE, Excerpta Medical Database, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Web of Science was conducted to identify studies that evaluated the accuracy of self-administered PsA screening tools for patients with psoriasis. A bivariate meta-analysis was used to pool screening tool-specific accuracy estimates (sensitivity and specificity). Heterogeneity of the diagnostic odds ratio was evaluated through meta-regression. All full-text records were assessed for risk of bias with the QUADAS 2 tool. RESULTS: A total of 2280 references were identified and 130 records were assessed for full-text review, of which 42 were included for synthesis. Of these, 27 were included in quantitative syntheses. Of the records, 37% had an overall low risk of bias. Fourteen different screening tools and 104 separate accuracy estimates were identified. Pooled sensitivity and specificity estimates were calculated for the Psoriatic Arthritis Screening and Evaluation (cut-off = 44), Psoriatic Arthritis Screening and Evaluation (47), Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Screening (8), Psoriasis Epidemiology Screening Tool (3) and Early Psoriatic Arthritis Screening Questionnaire (3). The Early Psoriatic Arthritis Screening Questionnaire reported the highest sensitivity and specificity (0.85 each). The I2 for the diagnostic odds ratios varied between 76 and 90.1%. Meta-regressions were conducted, in which the age, risk of bias for patient selection and the screening tool accounted for some of the observed heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Questionnaire-based tools have moderate accuracy to identify PsA among psoriasis patients. The Early Psoriatic Arthritis Screening Questionnaire appears to have slightly better accuracy compared with the Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Screening, Psoriasis Epidemiology Screening Tool and Psoriatic Arthritis Screening and Evaluation. An economic evaluation could model the uncertainty and estimate the cost-effectiveness of PsA screening programs that use different tools.

Cost-effectiveness of a gene sequencing test for Alzheimer's disease in Ontario.

Alzheimer's f disease (AD) affects approximately 250,000 Ontarians, a number that is expected to double by 2040. The Ontario Neurodegenerative Disease Research Initiative has developed an in-province genetic test (ONDRISeq), which currently runs in Ontario in an experimental capacity. The aim of this study is to estimate the costs and health outcomes associated with ONDRISeq to diagnose AD relative to out-of-country (OOC) testing (status quo). A cost-utility analysis was developed for a hypothetical cohort of 65-year-olds at risk of AD in Ontario over a 25-year time horizon. Costs and health outcomes (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) were assessed from a healthcare payer perspective. Cost-effectiveness was assessed with a $50,000 cost-effectiveness threshold. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate parameter uncertainty. ONDRISeq saved $54 per patient relative to OOC testing and led to a small QALY gain in the base case (0.0014 per patient). Results were most sensitive to testing costs, uptake rates, and treatment efficacy. ONDRISeq represented better value for money relative to OOC testing throughout 75% of 10,000 probabilistic iterations. Using ONDRISeq is expected to provide health system cost savings. Switching to ONDRISeq for AD genetic testing in Ontario would be dependent on the ability to accommodate the expected testing volumes.

The Indirect Cost Burden of Cancer Care in Canada: A Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cancer poses a substantial health and economic burden on patients and caregivers in Canada. Previous reviews have estimated the indirect cost burden as work-related productivity losses associated with cancer. However, these estimates require updating and complementing with more comprehensive data that include relevant dimensions beyond labor market costs, such as patient time, lost leisure time and home productivity losses. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify studies published from 2006 to 2020 that measured and reported the indirect costs borne by cancer patients and their caregivers in Canada, from the patient, caregiver, employer, and societal perspectives. Study characteristics and cost estimation methods were extracted from relevant studies. Costs estimates were reported and converted to 2020 CAD for the following categories: lost earnings, caregiving time costs, home production losses, patient time (leisure), morbidity-, disability-, premature mortality-related costs, friction costs, and overall productivity losses. A quality assessment of individual studies was conducted for included studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa Assessment Tool. RESULTS: In total, 3980 studies were identified, of which 18 Canadian studies met the inclusion criteria for review. One-third of the studies used or developed prediction models, 38% enrolled patient cohorts, and 27% used administrative databases. Over one-third of the studies were conducted at a national level (38%). All studies employed the human capital approach to estimate costs, and 16% also used the friction cost approach. Lost earnings were higher among self-employed patients (43% vs 24% among employees) and females ($8200 vs $3200 for males). Caregiver costs ranged from $15,786 to $20,414 per patient per year. Household productivity losses were estimated to be up to $238,904 per household per year. Patient time (leisure) costs were estimated to be between $13,000 and $18,704 per patient per year. Premature annual mortality costs were estimated to be $2.98 billion overall in Quebec. Friction costs incurred by employers were estimated between $6400 and $23,987 per patient per year. Societal productivity losses associated with cancer were estimated between $75 million to $317 million, annually. CONCLUSIONS: This review suggests that the indirect cost burden of cancer is considerable from the patient, caregiver, employer, and societal perspectives. This up-to-date review of the literature provides a comprehensive understanding of the indirect cost burden by including non-labor market activity costs and by examining all relevant perspectives. These results provide a strong case for the government and employers to ensure there are supports in place to help patients and caregivers buffer the impact of cancer so they can continue to engage in productive activities and enjoy leisure time.

The Out-of-Pocket Cost Burden of Cancer Care-A Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-pocket costs pose a substantial economic burden to cancer patients and their families. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the literature on out-of-pocket costs of cancer care. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify studies that estimated the out-of-pocket cost burden faced by cancer patients and their caregivers. The average monthly out-of-pocket costs per patient were reported/estimated and converted to 2018 USD. Costs were reported as medical and non-medical costs and were reported across countries or country income levels by cancer site, where possible, and category. The out-of-pocket burden was estimated as the average proportion of income spent as non-reimbursable costs. RESULTS: Among all cancers, adult patients and caregivers in the U.S. spent between USD 180 and USD 2600 per month, compared to USD 15-400 in Canada, USD 4-609 in Western Europe, and USD 58-438 in Australia. Patients with breast or colorectal cancer spent around USD 200 per month, while pediatric cancer patients spent USD 800. Patients spent USD 288 per month on cancer medications in the U.S. and USD 40 in other high-income countries (HICs). The average costs for medical consultations and in-hospital care were estimated between USD 40-71 in HICs. Cancer patients and caregivers spent 42% and 16% of their annual income on out-of-pocket expenses in low- and middle-income countries and HICs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that cancer is associated with high out-of-pocket costs. Healthcare systems have an opportunity to improve the coverage of medical and non-medical costs for cancer patients to help alleviate this burden and ensure equitable access to care.

Model to Determine the Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Psoriasis Patients for Psoriatic Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Screening psoriasis patients for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is intended to identify patients at earlier stages of the disease. Early treatment is expected to slow disease progression and delay the need for biologic therapy. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of screening for PsA in patients with psoriasis in Canada. METHODS: A Markov model was built to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of screening tools for PsA in psoriasis patients. The screening tools included the Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Screen, Psoriasis Epidemiology Screening Tool, Psoriatic Arthritis Screening and Evaluation, and Early Psoriatic Arthritis Screening Questionnaire (EARP) questionnaires. States of health were defined by disability levels as measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire. State transitions were modeled based on annual disease progression. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and incremental net monetary benefits were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to account for parameter uncertainty and to test model assumptions. RESULTS: Screening was cost-effective compared to no screening. The EARP tool had the lowest total cost ($2,000 per patient per year saved compared to no screening) and the highest total QALYs (additional 0.18 per patient compared to no screening). The results were most sensitive to test accuracy and the efficacy of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). No screening was cost-effective (at $50,000 per QALY) relative to screening when DMARDs failed to slow disease progression. CONCLUSION: If early therapy with DMARDs delays biologic treatment, implementing screening in patients with psoriasis in Canada is expected to represent a cost savings of $220 million per year and improve the quality of life.

The impact of episodic screening interruption: COVID-19 and population-based cancer screening in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer screening can reduce cancer burden but was interrupted temporarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the long-term clinical impact of breast and colorectal cancer screening interruptions in Canada using a validated mathematical model. METHODS: We used the OncoSim breast and colorectal cancers microsimulation models to explore scenarios of primary screening stops for 3, 6, and 12 months followed by 6-24-month transition periods of reduced screening volumes. For breast cancer, we estimated changes in cancer incidence over time, additional advanced-stage cases diagnosed, and excess cancer deaths in 2020-2029. For colorectal cancer, we estimated changes in cancer incidence over time, undiagnosed advanced adenomas and colorectal cancers in 2020, and lifetime excess cancer incidence and deaths. RESULTS: Our simulations projected a surge of cancer cases when screening resumes. For breast cancer screening, a three-month interruption could increase cases diagnosed at advanced stages (310 more) and cancer deaths (110 more) in 2020-2029. A six-month interruption could lead to 670 extra advanced cancers and 250 additional cancer deaths. For colorectal cancers, a six-month suspension of primary screening could increase cancer incidence by 2200 cases with 960 more cancer deaths over the lifetime. Longer interruptions, and reduced volumes when screening resumes, would further increase excess cancer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Interruptions in cancer screening will lead to additional cancer deaths, additional advanced cancers diagnosed, and a surge in demand for downstream resources when screening resumes. An effective strategy is needed to minimize potential harm to people who missed their screening.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands: a comparative modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer screening programmes worldwide have been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to estimate the impact of hypothetical disruptions to organised faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes on short-term and long-term colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in three countries using microsimulation modelling. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used four country-specific colorectal cancer microsimulation models-Policy1-Bowel (Australia), OncoSim (Canada), and ASCCA and MISCAN-Colon (the Netherlands)-to estimate the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands annually for the period 2020-24 and cumulatively for the period 2020-50. Modelled scenarios varied by duration of disruption (3, 6, and 12 months), decreases in screening participation after the period of disruption (0%, 25%, or 50% reduction), and catch-up screening strategies (within 6 months after the disruption period or all screening delayed by 6 months). FINDINGS: Without catch-up screening, our analysis predicted that colorectal cancer deaths among individuals aged 50 years and older, a 3-month disruption would result in 414-902 additional new colorectal cancer diagnoses (relative increase 0·1-0·2%) and 324-440 additional deaths (relative increase 0·2-0·3%) in the Netherlands, 1672 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 979 additional deaths (relative increase 0·5%) in Australia, and 1671 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2%) and 799 additional deaths (relative increase 0·3%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 6-month disruption would result in 803-1803 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2-0·4%) and 678-881 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4-0·6%) in the Netherlands, 3552 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 1961 additional deaths (relative increase 1·0%) in Australia, and 2844 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 1319 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 12-month disruption would result in 1619-3615 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·4-0·9%) and 1360-1762 additional deaths (relative increase 0·8-1·2%) in the Netherlands, 7140 additional diagnoses (relative increase 1·2%) and 3968 additional deaths (relative increase 2·0%) in Australia, and 5212 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 2366 additional deaths (relative increase 0·8%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. Providing immediate catch-up screening could minimise the impact of the disruption, restricting the relative increase in colorectal cancer incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2050 to less than 0·1% in all countries. A post-disruption decrease in participation could increase colorectal cancer incidence by 0·2-0·9% and deaths by 0·6-1·6% between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. INTERPRETATION: Although the projected effect of short-term disruption to colorectal cancer screening is modest, such disruption will have a marked impact on colorectal cancer incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2050 attributable to missed screening. Thus, it is crucial that, if disrupted, screening programmes ensure participation rates return to previously observed rates and provide catch-up screening wherever possible, since this could mitigate the impact on colorectal cancer deaths. FUNDING: Cancer Council New South Wales, Health Canada, and Dutch National Institute for Public Health and Environment.

COVID-19: Adaptation of a model to predicting healthcare resources needs in Valle del Cauca, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Valle del Cauca is the region with the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases in Colombia (>50,000 on September 7, 2020). Due to the lack of anti-COVID-19 therapies, decision-makers require timely and accurate data to estimate the incidence of disease and the availability of hospital resources to contain the pandemic. METHODS: We adapted an existing model to the local context to forecast COVID-19 incidence and hospital resource use assuming different scenarios: (1) the implementation of quarantine from September 1st to October 15th (average daily growth rate of 2%); (2-3) partial restrictions (at 4% and 8% growth rates); and (4) no restrictions, assuming a 10% growth rate. Previous scenarios with predictions from June to August were also presented. We estimated the number of new cases, diagnostic tests required, and the number of available hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds (with and without ventilators) for each scenario. RESULTS: We estimated 67,700 cases by October 15th when assuming the implementation of a quarantine, 80,400 and 101,500 cases when assuming partial restrictions at 4% and 8% infection rates, respectively, and 208,500 with no restrictions. According to different scenarios, the estimated demand for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests ranged from 202,000 to 1,610,600 between September 1st and October 15th. The model predicted depletion of hospital and ICU beds by September 20th if all restrictions were to be lifted and the infection growth rate increased to 10%. CONCLUSION: Slowly lifting social distancing restrictions and reopening the economy is not expected to result in full resource depletion by October if the daily growth rate is maintained below 8%. Increasing the number of available beds provides a safeguard against slightly higher infection rates. Predictive models can be iteratively used to obtain nuanced predictions to aid decision-making.

INTRODUCCIÓN: Valle del Cauca es el departamento con el cuarto mayor número de casos de COVID-19 en Colombia (>50,000 en septiembre 7, 2020). Debido a la ausencia de tratamientos efectivos para COVID-19, los tomadores de decisiones requieren de acceso a información actualizada para estimar la incidencia de la enfermedad, y la disponibilidad de recursos hospitalarios para contener la pandemia. MÉTODOS: Adaptamos un modelo existente al contexto local para estimar la incidencia de COVID-19, y la demanda de recursos hospitalarios en los próximos meses. Para ello, modelamos cuatro escenarios hipotéticos: (1) el gobierno local implementa una cuarentena desde el primero de septiembre hasta el 15 de octubre (asumiendo una tasa promedio de infecciones diarias del 2%); (2-3) se implementan restricciones parciales (tasas de infección del 4% y 8%); (4) se levantan todas las restricciones (tasa del 10%). Los mismos escenarios fueron previamente evaluados entre julio y agosto, y los resultados fueron resumidos. Estimamos el número de casos nuevos, el número de pruebas diagnósticas requeridas, y el numero de camas de hospital y de unidad de cuidados intensivos (con y sin ventilación) disponibles, para cada escenario. RESULTADOS: El modelo estimó 67,700 casos a octubre 15 al asumir la implementación de una nueva cuarentena, 80,400 y 101,500 al asumir restricciones parciales al 4 y 8% de infecciones diarias, respectivamente, y 208,500 al asumir ninguna restricción. La demanda por pruebas diagnósticas (de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa) fue estimada entre 202,000 y 1,610,600 entre septiembre 1 y octubre 15, a través de los diferentes escenarios evaluados. El modelo estimó un agotamiento de camas de cuidados intensivos para septiembre 20 al asumir una tasa de infecciones del 10%. Conclusión: Se estima que el levantamiento paulatino de las restricciones de distanciamiento social y la reapertura de la economía no debería causar el agotamiento de recursos hospitalarios si la tasa de infección diaria se mantiene por debajo del 8%. Sin embargo, incrementar la disponibilidad de camas permitiría al sistema de salud ajustarse rápidamente a potenciales picos inesperados de infecciones nuevas. Los modelos de predicción deben ser utilizados de manera iterativa para depurar las predicciones epidemiológicas y para proveer a los tomadores de decisiones con información actualizada.

Evaluation of interventions to improve inpatient hospital documentation within electronic health records: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the widespread and increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs), the quality of EHRs is problematic. Efforts have been made to address reasons for poor EHR documentation quality. Previous systematic reviews have assessed intervention effectiveness within the outpatient setting or paper documentation. The purpose of this systematic review was to assess the effectiveness of interventions seeking to improve EHR documentation within an inpatient setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A search strategy was developed based on elaborated inclusion/exclusion criteria. Four databases, gray literature, and reference lists were searched. A REDCap data capture form was used for data extraction, and study quality was assessed using a customized tool. Data were analyzed and synthesized in a narrative, semiquantitative manner. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies were included in this systematic review. Owing to high heterogeneity, quantitative comparison was not possible. However, statistically significant results in interventions and affected outcomes were analyzed and discussed. Education and implementation of a new EHR reporting system were the most successful interventions, as evidenced by significantly improved EHR documentation. DISCUSSION: Heterogeneity of interventions, outcomes, document type, EHR user, and other variables led to difficulty in measuring EHR documentation quality and effectiveness of interventions. However, the use of education as a primary intervention aligned closely with existing literature in similar fields. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions implemented to enhance EHR documentation are highly variable and require standardization. Emphasis should be placed on this novel area of research to improve communication between healthcare providers and facilitate data sharing between centers and countries.PROSPERO Registration Number: CRD42017083494.

Evaluation of interventions to improve electronic health record documentation within the inpatient setting: a protocol for a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health records (EHRs) are increasing in popularity across national and international healthcare systems. Despite their augmented availability and use, the quality of electronic health records is problematic. There are various reasons for poor documentation quality within the EHR, and efforts have been made to address these areas. Previous systematic reviews have assessed intervention effectiveness within the outpatient setting or within paper documentation. This systematic review aims to assess the effectiveness of different interventions seeking to improve EHR documentation within an inpatient setting. METHODS: We will employ a comprehensive search strategy that encompasses four distinct themes: EHR, documentation, interventions, and study design. Four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and CINAHL) will be searched along with an in-depth examination of the grey literature and reference lists of relevant articles. A customized hybrid study quality assessment tool has been designed, integrating components of the Downs and Black and Newcastle-Ottawa Scales, into a REDCap data capture form to facilitate data extraction and analysis. Given the predicted high heterogeneity between studies, it may not be possible to standardize data for a quantitative comparison and meta-analysis. Thus, data will be synthesized in a narrative, semi-quantitative manner. DISCUSSION: This review will summarize the current level of evidence on the effectiveness of interventions implemented to improve inpatient EHR documentation, which could ultimately enhance data quality in administrative health databases. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42017083494.

Assessing the value of screening tools: reviewing the challenges and opportunities of cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Screening is an important part of preventive medicine. Ideally, screening tools identify patients early enough to provide treatment and avoid or reduce symptoms and other consequences, improving health outcomes of the population at a reasonable cost. Cost-effectiveness analyses combine the expected benefits and costs of interventions and can be used to assess the value of screening tools. OBJECTIVE: This review seeks to evaluate the latest cost-effectiveness analyses on screening tools to identify the current challenges encountered and potential methods to overcome them. METHODS: A systematic literature search of EMBASE and MEDLINE identified cost-effectiveness analyses of screening tools published in 2017. Data extracted included the population, disease, screening tools, comparators, perspective, time horizon, discounting, and outcomes. Challenges and methodological suggestions were narratively synthesized. RESULTS: Four key categories were identified: screening pathways, pre-symptomatic disease, treatment outcomes, and non-health benefits. Not all studies included treatment outcomes; 15 studies (22%) did not include treatment following diagnosis. Quality-adjusted life years were used by 35 (51.4%) as the main outcome. Studies that undertook a societal perspective did not report non-health benefits and costs consistently. Two important challenges identified were (i) estimating the sojourn time, i.e., the time between when a patient can be identified by screening tests and when they would have been identified due to symptoms, and (ii) estimating the treatment effect and progression rates of patients identified early. CONCLUSIONS: To capture all important costs and outcomes of a screening tool, screening pathways should be modeled including patient treatment. Also, false positive and false negative patients are likely to have important costs and consequences and should be included in the analysis. As these patients are difficult to identify in regular data sources, common treatment patterns should be used to determine how these patients are likely to be treated. It is important that assumptions are clearly indicated and that the consequences of these assumptions are tested in sensitivity analyses, particularly the assumptions of independence of consecutive tests and the level of patient and provider compliance to guidelines and sojourn times. As data is rarely available regarding the progression of undiagnosed patients, extrapolation from diagnosed patients may be necessary.

The Effect of Biologic and Targeted Synthetic Drugs on Work- and Productivity-related Outcomes for Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the effects of biologic therapies for psoriatic arthritis [secukinumab, ustekinumab, adalimumab, etanercept, certolizumab pegol (CZP), apremilast, golimumab (GOL), or infliximab (IFX)] on work productivity. METHODS: A systematic review of Medline, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and ClinicalTrials.gov was conducted to identify randomized controlled trials reporting on work productivity outcomes at the end of the placebo-controlled double-blind period. RESULTS: There were 7959 records identified. Full text of 377 records was further assessed for eligibility, of which 5 trials were included. All included trials were assessed with the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool, and 4 out of 5 were judged to be of low risk of bias in most domains. Improvements in self-assessed work productivity were observed in 5 trials (IFX, GOL, CZP, ustekinumab, and apremilast), ranging from a mean difference of -0.9 to -1.8 on a 1-10 scale of self-assessed work productivity (negative change represents improvement), although statistical significance of the results was not reported for CZP and apremilast. Treatment with CZP resulted in a statistically significant reduction in absenteeism (200 mg) and presenteeism (200 and 400 mg). IFX and GOL reported a nonsignificant reduction of absenteeism. The Work Productivity Survey, the Work Limitations Questionnaire, and visual analog scales were used to measure work productivity. CONCLUSION: Treatment with IFX, GOL, CZP, ustekinumab, and apremilast resulted in improvements in self-reported work productivity. A pooled analysis was not possible because of the clinical heterogeneity of the trials and variability in outcome reporting.

Cost Effectiveness of Treatments for Chronic Constipation: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Chronic constipation (CC) has a significant impact on patients' quality of life and imposes an economic burden on individuals and the healthcare system. Treatment options include dietary changes, lifestyle modifications, fibre supplements, stool softeners, and laxatives. OBJECTIVE: We undertook this systematic review to comprehensively evaluate the cost effectiveness of treatments for CC. METHODS: We searched ten common databases to identify economic evaluations published to 13 June 2017. Abstract and full-text review were completed in duplicate. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria. Data extracted included costs and outcomes of treatments for CC and cost-effectiveness methods. A narrative synthesis was completed. RESULTS: From the 4338 unique citations identified, 79 proceeded to full-text review, with 10 studies forming the final dataset. Eight different definitions of CC were used to define the study populations. Study designs used were decision-tree models (4), Markov model (1), and retrospective (1) and prospective (4) studies. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were reported in five studies; other outcomes included, discontinuation of laxative treatment and frequency of bowel movements. The majority of studies stated that their results were from a payer perspective; however, some of these studies only considered treatment costs, a subset of costs included in the payer perspective. Lifestyle advice, dietary treatments and abdominal massage were each compared with current care with laxatives, while polyethylene glycol (PEG) and senna-fibre combination were each compared with lactulose. Two studies compared newer treatments in patients who had not responded to laxatives: prucalopride was compared with continuing laxatives, and linaclotide was compared with lubiprostone. All of the interventions were reported by the study authors to be cost effective, with the exception of abdominal massage. CONCLUSIONS: A consistent definition of CC is needed and the QALY should be used to capture the diverse symptoms of CC. Further analysis is needed comparing all available treatments for patients who have not responded to laxatives. Overall, results from economic evaluations appear to align with stepwise practice guidelines.

Surface-grafted polyethylene glycol conformation impacts the transport of PEG-functionalized liposomes through a tumour extracellular matrix model.

The effect of surface PEGylation on nanoparticle transport through an extracellular matrix (ECM) is an important determinant for tumor targeting success. Fluorescent stealth liposomes (base lipid DOPC) were prepared incorporating different proportions of PEG-grafted lipids (2.5, 5 and 10% of the total lipid content) for a series of PEG molecular weights (1000, 2000 and 5000 Da). The ECM was modelled using a collagen matrix. The kinetics of PEGylated liposome adhesion to and transport in collagen matrices were tracked using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) and confocal microscopy, respectively. Generalized least square regressions were used to determine the temporal correlations between PEG molecular weight, surface density and conformation, and the liposome transport in a collagen hydrogel over 15 hours. PEG conformation determined the interaction of liposomes with the collagen hydrogel and their transport behaviour. Interestingly, liposomes with mushroom PEG conformation accumulated on the interface of the collagen hydrogel, creating a dense liposomal front with short diffusion distances into the hydrogels. On the other hand, liposomes with dense brush PEG conformation interacted to a lesser extent with the collagen hydrogel and diffused to longer distances. In conclusion, a better understanding of PEG surface coating as a modifier of transport in a model ECM matrix has resulted. This knowledge will improve design of future liposomal drug carrier systems.

COVID-19: Adaptation of a model to predicting healthcare resources needs in Valle del Cauca, Colombia / COVID-19: Predicción de las necesidades de recursos sanitarios en el Valle del Cauca, Colombia

Abstract Background: Valle del Cauca is the region with the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases in Colombia (>50,000 on September 7, 2020). Due to the lack of anti-COVID-19 therapies, decision-makers require timely and accurate data to estimate the incidence of disease and the availability of hospital resources to contain the pandemic. Methods: We adapted an existing model to the local context to forecast COVID-19 incidence and hospital resource use assuming different scenarios: (1) the implementation of quarantine from September 1st to October 15th (average daily growth rate of 2%); (2-3) partial restrictions (at 4% and 8% growth rates); and (4) no restrictions, assuming a 10% growth rate. Previous scenarios with predictions from June to August were also presented. We estimated the number of new cases, diagnostic tests required, and the number of available hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds (with and without ventilators) for each scenario. Results: We estimated 67,700 cases by October 15th when assuming the implementation of a quarantine, 80,400 and 101,500 cases when assuming partial restrictions at 4% and 8% infection rates, respectively, and 208,500 with no restrictions. According to different scenarios, the estimated demand for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests ranged from 202,000 to 1,610,600 between September 1st and October 15th. The model predicted depletion of hospital and ICU beds by September 20th if all restrictions were to be lifted and the infection growth rate increased to 10%. Conclusion: Slowly lifting social distancing restrictions and reopening the economy is not expected to result in full resource depletion by October if the daily growth rate is maintained below 8%. Increasing the number of available beds provides a safeguard against slightly higher infection rates. Predictive models can be iteratively used to obtain nuanced predictions to aid decision-making

Resumen Introducción: Valle del Cauca es el departamento con el cuarto mayor número de casos de COVID-19 en Colombia (>50,000 en septiembre 7, 2020). Debido a la ausencia de tratamientos efectivos para COVID-19, los tomadores de decisiones requieren de acceso a información actualizada para estimar la incidencia de la enfermedad, y la disponibilidad de recursos hospitalarios para contener la pandemia. Métodos: Adaptamos un modelo existente al contexto local para estimar la incidencia de COVID-19, y la demanda de recursos hospitalarios en los próximos meses. Para ello, modelamos cuatro escenarios hipotéticos: (1) el gobierno local implementa una cuarentena desde el primero de septiembre hasta el 15 de octubre (asumiendo una tasa promedio de infecciones diarias del 2%); (2-3) se implementan restricciones parciales (tasas de infección del 4% y 8%); (4) se levantan todas las restricciones (tasa del 10%). Los mismos escenarios fueron previamente evaluados entre julio y agosto, y los resultados fueron resumidos. Estimamos el número de casos nuevos, el número de pruebas diagnósticas requeridas, y el numero de camas de hospital y de unidad de cuidados intensivos (con y sin ventilación) disponibles, para cada escenario. Resultados: El modelo estimó 67,700 casos a octubre 15 al asumir la implementación de una nueva cuarentena, 80,400 y 101,500 al asumir restricciones parciales al 4 y 8% de infecciones diarias, respectivamente, y 208,500 al asumir ninguna restricción. La demanda por pruebas diagnósticas (de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa) fue estimada entre 202,000 y 1,610,600 entre septiembre 1 y octubre 15, a través de los diferentes escenarios evaluados. El modelo estimó un agotamiento de camas de cuidados intensivos para septiembre 20 al asumir una tasa de infecciones del 10%. Conclusión: Se estima que el levantamiento paulatino de las restricciones de distanciamiento social y la reapertura de la economía no debería causar el agotamiento de recursos hospitalarios si la tasa de infección diaria se mantiene por debajo del 8%. Sin embargo, incrementar la disponibilidad de camas permitiría al sistema de salud ajustarse rápidamente a potenciales picos inesperados de infecciones nuevas. Los modelos de predicción deben ser utilizados de manera iterativa para depurar las predicciones epidemiológicas y para proveer a los tomadores de decisiones con información actualizada.