Antler growth as a cost of reproduction in female reindeer.

The costs of reproduction are important in shaping individual life histories, and hence population dynamics, but the mechanistic pathways of such costs are often unknown. Female reindeer have evolved antlers possibly due to interference competition on winter-feeding grounds. Here, we investigate if variation in antler size explains part of the cost of reproduction in late winter mass of female reindeer. We captured 440 individual Svalbard reindeer a total of 1426 times over 16 years and measured antler size and body mass in late winter, while presence of a 'calf-at-heel' was observed in summer. We found that reproductive females grew smaller antlers and weighed 4.3 kg less than non-reproductive females. Path analyses revealed that 14% of this cost of reproduction in body mass was caused by the reduced antler size. Our study is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that antlers in female Rangifer have evolved due to interference competition and provides evidence for antler growth as a cost of reproduction in females. Antler growth was constrained more by life history events than by variation in the environment, which contrasts markedly with studies on male antlers and horns, and hence increases our understanding of constraints on ornamentation and life history trade-offs.

Biased estimation of trends in cohort effects: the problems with age-period-cohort models in ecology.

Environmental variation can generate life-long similarities among individuals born in the same breeding event, so-called cohort effects. Studies of cohort effects have to account for the potentially confounding effects of current conditions (observation year) and age of individuals. However, estimation of such models is hampered by inherent collinearity, as age is the difference between observation year (period) and cohort year. The difficulties of separating linear trends in any of the three variables in Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models are the subject of ongoing debate in social sciences and medicine but have remained unnoticed in ecology. After reviewing the use of APC models, we investigate the consequences of model specification on the estimation of cohort effects, using both simulated data and empirical data from a long-term individual-based study of reindeer in Svalbard. We demonstrate that APC models are highly sensitive to the model's treatment of age, period and cohort, which may generate spurious temporal trends in cohort effects. Avoiding grouping ages and using environmental covariates believed to be drivers of temporal variation reduces the APC identification problem. Nonetheless, ecologists should use caution, given that the specification issues in APC models may have substantial impacts on estimated effect sizes and therefore conclusions.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.

The influence of weather conditions during gestation on life histories in a wild Arctic ungulate.

The internal predictive adaptive response (internal PAR) hypothesis predicts that individuals born in poor conditions should start to reproduce earlier if they are likely to have reduced performance in later life. However, whether this is the case remains unexplored in wild populations. Here, we use longitudinal data from a long-term study of Svalbard reindeer to examine age-related changes in adult female life-history responses to environmental conditions experienced in utero as indexed by rain-on-snow (ROSutero). We show that females experiencing high ROSutero had reduced reproductive success only from 7 years of age, independent of early reproduction. These individuals were able to maintain the same annual reproductive success between 2 and 6 years as phenotypically superior conspecifics that experienced low ROSutero Young females born after high ROSutero engage in reproductive events at lower body mass (about 2.5 kg less) than those born after low ROSutero The mean fitness of females that experienced poor environmental conditions in early life was comparable with that of females exposed to good environmental conditions in early life. These results are consistent with the idea of internal PAR and suggest that the life-history responses to early-life conditions can buffer the delayed effects of weather on population dynamics.

Can digital reinvention of ecological monitoring remove barriers to its adoption by practitioners? A case study of deer management in Scotland.

Monitoring is one of the key tools employed to help understand the condition of the natural environment and inform the development of appropriate management actions. While international conventions encourage the use of standardised methods, the link between the information monitoring provides and local management needs is frequently overlooked. This problem is further exacerbated when monitoring is employed in areas where there are divergent interests among stakeholders in land use and management. Such problems are found in the management of wild deer across Scotland, where monitoring, in the form of habitat impact assessments, have been introduced as an innovation in sustainable deer management. However, the uptake of habitat impact assessments has been limited. We used deer management in Scotland as a case study to explore whether reinventing habitat impact assessments, and hosting the system on a familiar digital platform (a mobile phone) could help to remove perceived barriers to the implementation of assessments. Using the diffusion of innovations as a theoretical framework three sets of workshops were conducted with participants representing different stakeholder interests. While the proposed digital system did address perceived barriers to the conduct of habitat monitoring, in addition it revealed underlying concerns on the use and purpose of habitat monitoring as a tool in land management. Such concerns indicate friction between scientific and management perspectives, which need to be considered and addressed if monitoring is to become more widely acceptable as a tool to inform the management of natural resources.

The need to disentangle key concepts from ecosystem-approach jargon.

The ecosystem approach--as endorsed by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CDB) in 2000-is a strategy for holistic, sustainable, and equitable natural resource management, to be implemented via the 12 Malawi Principles. These principles describe the need to manage nature in terms of dynamic ecosystems, while fully engaging with local peoples. It is an ambitious concept. Today, the term is common throughout the research and policy literature on environmental management. However, multiple meanings have been attached to the term, resulting in confusion. We reviewed references to the ecosystem approach from 1957 to 2012 and identified 3 primary uses: as an alternative to ecosystem management or ecosystem-based management; in reference to an integrated and equitable approach to resource management as per the CBD; and as a term signifying a focus on understanding and valuing ecosystem services. Although uses of this term and its variants may overlap in meaning, typically, they do not entirely reflect the ethos of the ecosystem approach as defined by the CBD. For example, there is presently an increasing emphasis on ecosystem services, but focusing on these alone does not promote decentralization of management or use of all forms of knowledge, both of which are integral to the CBD's concept. We highlight that the Malawi Principles are at risk of being forgotten. To better understand these principles, more effort to implement them is required. Such efforts should be evaluated, ideally with comparative approaches, before allowing the CBD's concept of holistic and socially engaged management to be abandoned or superseded. It is possible that attempts to implement all 12 principles together will face many challenges, but they may also offer a unique way to promote holistic and equitable governance of natural resources. Therefore, we believe that the CBD's concept of the ecosystem approach demands more attention.

Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level.

AIMS: To estimate qualitatively the probabilities of release (or entry) of Eurasian lineage H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into Great Britain (GB), the Netherlands and Italy through selected higher risk species of migratory water bird. METHODS AND RESULTS: The probabilities of one or more release events of H5N1 HPAI per year (Pre(lease)) were estimated qualitatively for 15 avian species, including swans, geese, ducks and gulls, by assessing the prevalence of H5N1 HPAI in different regions of the world (weighted to 2009) and estimates of the total numbers of birds migrating from each of those regions. The release assessment accommodated the migration times for each species in relation to the probabilities of their surviving infection and shedding virus on arrival. Although the predicted probabilities of release of H5N1 per individual bird per year were low, very low or negligible, Pre(lease) was high for a few species reflecting the high numbers of birds migrating from some regions. Values of Pre(lease) were generally higher for the Netherlands than for GB, while ducks and gulls from Africa presented higher probabilities to Italy compared to the Netherlands and GB. CONCLUSIONS: Bird species with high values of Pre(lease) in GB, the Netherlands and Italy generally originate from within Europe based on data for global prevalence of H5N1 between 2003 and 2009 weighted to 2009. Potential long-distance transfer of H5N1 HPAI from North Asia and Eurasia to GB, the Netherlands and Italy is limited to a few species and does not occur from South-East Asia, an area where H5N1 is endemic. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The approach accommodates biogeographical conditions and variability in the estimated worldwide prevalence of the virus. The outputs of this release assessment can be used to inform surveillance activities through focusing on certain species and migratory pathways.

The patient centered medical home. A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) describes mechanisms for organizing primary care to provide high quality care across the full range of individuals' health care needs.It is being widely implemented by provider organizations and third party payers. PURPOSE: To describe approaches for PCMH implementation and summarize evidence for effects on patient and staff experiences,process of care, and clinical and economic outcomes. DATA SOURCES: PubMed (through 6 December 2011), Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (through 29 June 2012). STUDY SELECTION: English-language trials and longitudinal observational studies that met criteria for the PCMH, as defined by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and included populations with multiple conditions. DATA EXTRACTION: Information on study design, populations, interventions,comparators, financial models, implementation methods,outcomes, and risk of bias were abstracted by 1 investigator and verified by another. DATA SYNTHESIS: In 19 comparative studies, PCMH interventions had a small positive effect on patient experiences and small to moderate positive effects on the delivery of preventive care services(moderate strength of evidence). Staff experiences were also improved by a small to moderate degree (low strength of evidence).Evidence suggested a reduction in emergency department visits(risk ratio [RR], 0.81 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.98]) but not in hospital admissions (RR, 0.96 [CI, 0.84 to 1.10]) in older adults (low strength of evidence). There was no evidence for overall cost savings. LIMITATION: Systematic review is challenging because of a lack of consistent definitions and nomenclature for PCMH. CONCLUSION: The PCMH holds promise for improving the experiences of patients and staff and potentially for improving care processes,but current evidence is insufficient to determine effects on clinical and most economic outcomes

Carcass provisioning to support scavengers: evaluating a controversial nature conservation practice.

A number of scavenger species have suffered population declines across Europe. In attempts to reverse their decline, some land and wildlife managers have adopted the practice of leaving or placing out carcasses of wild or domestic herbivores to provide a source of carrion. However, this can be a controversial practice, with as yet unclear outcomes for many target species and the ecosystems they are part of. Here we bring out the key aspects of this increasingly common conservation practice illustrated using three contrasting cases studies. We show that the provision of carcasses is often motivated by a desire to benefit charismatic species or to facilitate nutrient cycling throughout an ecosystem. Evidence for the effectiveness of this practice in achieving these objectives, however, is mostly lacking, with ecologists studying "easier" species groups such as beetles and therefore not providing relevant insights. Moreover, conflicts between environmental policies that carcass provisioning is aimed at and other social and economic objectives do occur but these projects are often designed without taking into account this broader context. We conclude that expecting carcasses to simply be "good for biodiversity" may be too naïve a view. A greater knowledge of the impact of carcass provisioning and placement on ecosystems and society at large is required before it can become a more effective conservation tool at a wider scale.

Investigation into sampling strategies in response to potential outbreaks of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza initiated in commercial duck holdings in Great Britain.

The aim of this study was to evaluate potential sampling strategies for detection of infected flocks that could be applied during an outbreak of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) initiated in duck holdings, following initial detection. A simulation model of avian influenza virus transmission and spread within and between holdings, respectively, was used to predict the impact on the size and duration of an outbreak of (i) changing the tracing window within which premises that might be the source of infection or that may have been infected by the index premises were sampled and (ii) changing the number of birds sampled in the flock being tested. It has shown that there is potential benefit in increasing the tracing window in terms of reducing the likelihood of a large outbreak. It has also shown that there is comparatively little benefit from increasing the number of birds sampled per flock.

Habitat monitoring in the wider countryside: a case study on the pursuit of innovation in red deer management.

Policy frameworks for protected areas, such as the EU habitats directive, ensure that environmental monitoring takes place to assess the condition of these sites. However, this monitoring rarely extends to the wider countryside, and there is no obligation for private landowners to detect trends in habitat condition. Using the diffusion of innovations model as an analytical framework we conducted a series of semi-structured interviews to consider the uptake of habitat impact assessment methods throughout a community involved in private land use pursuits in Scotland. It was found that although the community as a whole recognises the benefits of habitat impact assessments there are a number of barriers to their uptake, including the complexity of data gathering and interpretation, and uncertainty around who should be responsible for the conduct of assessments. Analysing the uptake of an innovation at an early stage, rather than retrospectively as is commonly done, highlights the potential for non-adoption and could therefore inform the reinvention of the innovation. In this instance reinvention could lead to more appropriate monitoring methods, which, if taken up, could reduce the need for legislative intervention in situations where both public and private interests need to be considered.

Updated report on comparative effectiveness of ACE inhibitors, ARBs, and direct renin inhibitors for patients with essential hypertension: much more data, little new information.

OBJECTIVES: A 2007 systematic review compared angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) in patients with hypertension. Direct renin inhibitors (DRIs) have since been introduced, and significant new research has been published. We sought to update and expand the 2007 review. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (through December 2010) and selected other sources for relevant English-language trials. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTIONS: We included studies that directly compared ACE inhibitors, ARBs, and/or DRIs in at least 20 total adults with essential hypertension; had at least 12 weeks of follow-up; and reported at least one outcome of interest. Ninety-seven (97) studies (36 new since 2007) directly comparing ACE inhibitors versus ARBs and three studies directly comparing DRIs to ACE inhibitor inhibitors or ARBs were included. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: A standard protocol was used to extract data on study design, interventions, population characteristics, and outcomes; evaluate study quality; and summarize the evidence. RESULTS: In spite of substantial new evidence, none of the conclusions from the 2007 review changed. The level of evidence remains high for equivalence between ACE inhibitors and ARBs for blood pressure lowering and use as single antihypertensive agents, as well as for superiority of ARBs for short-term adverse events (primarily cough). However, the new evidence was insufficient on long-term cardiovascular outcomes, quality of life, progression of renal disease, medication adherence or persistence, rates of angioedema, and differences in key patient subgroups. LIMITATIONS: Included studies were limited by follow-up duration, protocol heterogeneity, and infrequent reporting on patient subgroups. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS: Evidence does not support a meaningful difference between ACE inhibitors and ARBs for any outcome except medication side effects. Few, if any, of the questions that were not answered in the 2007 report have been addressed by the 36 new studies. Future research in this area should consider areas of uncertainty and be prioritized accordingly.

Congruent responses to weather variability in high arctic herbivores.

Assessing the role of weather in the dynamics of wildlife populations is a pressing task in the face of rapid environmental change. Rodents and ruminants are abundant herbivore species in most Arctic ecosystems, many of which are experiencing particularly rapid climate change. Their different life-history characteristics, with the exception of their trophic position, suggest that they should show different responses to environmental variation. Here we show that the only mammalian herbivores on the Arctic islands of Svalbard, reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and sibling voles (Microtus levis), exhibit strong synchrony in population parameters. This synchrony is due to rain-on-snow events that cause ground ice and demonstrates that climate impacts can be similarly integrated and expressed in species with highly contrasting life histories. The finding suggests that responses of wildlife populations to climate variability and change might be more consistent in Polar regions than elsewhere owing to the strength of the climate impact and the simplicity of the ecosystem.

Development and application of a delayed-release anthelmintic intra-ruminal bolus system for experimental manipulation of nematode worm burdens.

In order to quantify the impact of parasites on host population dynamics, experimental manipulations that perturb the parasite-host relationship are needed but, logistically, this is difficult for wild hosts. Here, we describe the use of a delayed-release anthelmintic delivery system that can be administered when the hosts can be captured and its activity delayed until a more appropriate period in the host-parasite cycle. Our model system is Svalbard reindeer infected with a nematode parasite, Marshallagia marshalli, which appears to accumulate during the Arctic winter. To determine the extent to which this occurs and the effect on host fitness, reindeer need to be treated with anthelmintics in late autumn but they can only be caught and handled in April. To solve this problem, we devised an intra-ruminal capsule that releases the anthelmintic from up to 6 months after being administered. The capsule was trialed in cannulated sheep and red deer to determine optimum capsule orifice size and release rates. Capsules were estimated to release placebo for 100-153 days followed by abamectin for 22-34 days. To test the efficacy of treatment in reindeer, capsules were administered in April and retrieved in October. All capsules had fully released the anthelmintic and treated reindeer had significantly lower worm burdens than controls. Thus, success of this system allows repeated treatment over several years to test the effect of winter parasitism on host fitness.

Risk of significant gynaecological pathology in women with glandular neoplasia on cervical cytology.

OBJECTIVE: To review the risk of pre-invasive and invasive gynaecological pathology in women referred with cervical cytology reporting ?glandular neoplasia. METHODS: Review of the case notes of all women referred with cervical cytology reported as ?glandular neoplasia between January 1999 and December 2008 at two UK hospitals: Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust and Queen Mary's Hospital Sidcup. The category of 'borderline nuclear change in endocervical cells', result code 8 according to the national health service cancer screening programme (NHSCSP), was excluded from the study. RESULTS: A total of 200 women were identified using the hospitals' pathology computer systems. Invasive carcinoma was found in 48 women (24%): 28 endocervical adenocarcinomas, eight squamous cell carcinomas (SCC), ten endometrial and two ovarian adenocarcinomas. Pre-invasive neoplasia was found in 115 (57.5%), including 14 cervical glandular intraepithelial neoplasia (CGIN), 31 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2/3 and 70 concomitant CGIN and CIN2/3. CIN1/HPV was found in 25, simple endometrial hyperplasia in three and no histological abnormality in three. Thirty-four (70.8%) of 48 invasive carcinomas (of which 23 were endocervical adenocarcinomas) were in asymptomatic women investigated for abnormal cytology. Fourteen of 34 (41.4%) of those with ?glandular neoplasia thought to be endometrial were CGIN or CIN2/3. Colposcopic appearances were normal in 47.6% of women with pure cervical glandular neoplasia (adenocarcinoma or CGIN) compared with 12.8% with squamous cell lesions (CIN2/3 or SCC): P = 0.0001. Thus, colposcopy was more sensitive for detecting squamous cell abnormalities than their glandular counterparts. Although cervical adenocarcinomas are less amenable to prevention by screening than cervical SCC, in our study cervical cytology predominantly detected these abnormalities at their early asymptomatic stages. CONCLUSION: At least CIN2 was found in 81.5% in women referred with cervical cytology reporting ?glandular neoplasia. A thorough evaluation of the whole genital tract is needed if colposcopy is negative.

The provision of surgical care for children with cardiac disease: the Jamaican experience--an 18-year review.

The aim of this article is to review the local experience over the last 18 years (1994-2011) in providing surgical intervention for children with heart conditions in Jamaica. Eight hundred and sixty-three children received cardiac surgery during this period, 441 were done with the assistance of visiting overseas teams and 422 by the local surgical teams. The majority of cases receiving cardiac surgery were for congenital heart defects; however 3% of cases were for rheumatic heart disease. The overall survival rate was 94% for the period 1994 to 2008.

Stress responses to repeated captures in a wild ungulate.

While capture-mark-recapture studies provide essential individual-level data in ecology, repeated captures and handling may impact animal welfare and cause scientific bias. Evaluating the consequences of invasive methodologies should be an integral part of any study involving capture of live animals. We investigated short- and long-term stress responses to repeated captures within a winter on the physiology, behaviour, and reproductive success of female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). Short-term responses were evaluated using serum concentrations of glucocorticoids and catecholamines during handling, and post-release recovery times in heart rate and activity levels. Repeated captures were associated with an increase in measured catecholamines and glucocorticoids, except cortisone, and delayed recovery in heart rate but not activity. Four months later, in summer, individuals captured repeatedly in winter exhibited a small increase in behavioural response to human disturbance and had a lower probability of being observed with a calf, compared to animals not captured, or captured only once. Our findings imply that single annual capture events have no significant negative consequences for Svalbard reindeer, but repeated captures within a season may impact offspring survival in the same year. Such unanticipated side effects highlight the importance of addressing multiple indicators of animal responses to repeated captures.

Inositol lipids in cell signalling.

In the past year, major advances have been made in our understanding of the regulation of phosphoinositidase C, and of the action of the inositol trisphosphate receptor and how it may generate 'quantal' Ca2+ release. The functions of inositol tetrakisphosphate and of the 3-phosphorylated inositol lipids continue to generate controversy, but both may be well on the way towards some clarification. Finally, we may have to extend our concept of the inositide cycle to include an intranuclear signalling function.

Determinants of heart rate in Svalbard reindeer reveal mechanisms of seasonal energy management.

Seasonal energetic challenges may constrain an animal's ability to respond to changing individual and environmental conditions. Here, we investigated variation in heart rate, a well-established proxy for metabolic rate, in Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus), a species with strong seasonal changes in foraging and metabolic activity. In 19 adult females, we recorded heart rate, subcutaneous temperature and activity using biologgers. Mean heart rate more than doubled from winter to summer. Typical drivers of energy expenditure, such as reproduction and activity, explained a relatively limited amount of variation (2-6% in winter and 16-24% in summer) compared to seasonality, which explained 75% of annual variation in heart rate. The relationship between heart rate and subcutaneous temperature depended on individual state via body mass, age and reproductive status, and the results suggested that peripheral heterothermy is an important pathway of energy management in both winter and summer. While the seasonal plasticity in energetics makes Svalbard reindeer well-adapted to their highly seasonal environment, intraseasonal constraints on modulation of their heart rate may limit their ability to respond to severe environmental change. This study emphasizes the importance of encompassing individual state and seasonal context when studying energetics in free-living animals. This article is part of the theme issue 'Measuring physiology in free-living animals (Part II)'.

A molecular epidemiological investigation of avian paramyxovirus type 1 viruses isolated from game birds of the order Galliformes.

The partial (370 nucleotides) fusion gene sequences of 55 avian paramyxovirus type 1 (APMV-1) isolates were obtained. Included were 41 published sequences, of which 16 were from strains of APMV-1 of previously determined lineages included as markers for the data analysed and 25 were from APMV-1 viruses isolated from game birds of the order Galliformes. In addition, we sequenced a further 14 game bird isolates obtained from the repository at the Veterinary Laboratories Agency. The game bird isolates had been obtained from 17 countries, and spanned four decades. Earlier studies have shown that class II APMV-1 viruses can be divided into at least 15 lineages and sub-lineages. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the 39 game bird isolates were distributed across 12 of these sub-lineages. We conclude that no single lineage of Newcastle disease viruses appears to be prevalent in game birds, and the isolates obtained from these hosts reflected the prevailing, both geographically and temporally, viruses in poultry, pigeons or wild birds.