Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using hs troponin I.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap. METHODS: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p < .01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p = .03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p < .01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p < .01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p < .01). CONCLUSION: hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.

Social position and functional somatic disorders: The DanFunD study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: It is generally accepted that functional somatic disorders (FSDs) are a product of biological, psychological, and social factors. Social position might be part of this complex, but the literature on this issue is currently heterogeneous and inconsistent. The aim of the present study was - in a population-based cohort - to test the hypothesis that lower social position would be associated with higher a risk of FSD. METHOD: The association between social position and FSD was examined in a cross-sectional study with various measures of social position (education as measured by vocational training; employment; cohabitation; subjective social status) and delimitations of FSD (irritable bowel syndrome, chronic fatigue syndrome, fibromyalgia, bodily distress syndrome, and symptom profiles). The associations were analyzed using logistic regressions to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Each social measure was analyzed independently and was adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS: Lower levels of vocational training, being unemployed, and living alone were associated with higher risk of FSD, regardless of the FSD delimitation. There was also a significant negative association between subjective evaluated social status and FSD. The associations remained after multiple adjustments, and seemed to be strongest for the more severe FSD-types. CONCLUSIONS: Lower social position is associated with higher risk of FSD, especially the more severe FSD delimitations, which might constitute an especially vulnerable group. However, the mechanisms behind the relations remain unknown.

Application of High-Sensitivity Troponin in Suspected Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding high-sensitivity troponin concentrations in patients presenting to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of myocardial infarction may be useful in determining the probability of myocardial infarction and subsequent 30-day outcomes. METHODS: In 15 international cohorts of patients presenting to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of myocardial infarction, we determined the concentrations of high-sensitivity troponin I or high-sensitivity troponin T at presentation and after early or late serial sampling. The diagnostic and prognostic performance of multiple high-sensitivity troponin cutoff combinations was assessed with the use of a derivation-validation design. A risk-assessment tool that was based on these data was developed to estimate the risk of index myocardial infarction and of subsequent myocardial infarction or death at 30 days. RESULTS: Among 22,651 patients (9604 in the derivation data set and 13,047 in the validation data set), the prevalence of myocardial infarction was 15.3%. Lower high-sensitivity troponin concentrations at presentation and smaller absolute changes during serial sampling were associated with a lower likelihood of myocardial infarction and a lower short-term risk of cardiovascular events. For example, high-sensitivity troponin I concentrations of less than 6 ng per liter and an absolute change of less than 4 ng per liter after 45 to 120 minutes (early serial sampling) resulted in a negative predictive value of 99.5% for myocardial infarction, with an associated 30-day risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or death of 0.2%; a total of 56.5% of the patients would be classified as being at low risk. These findings were confirmed in an external validation data set. CONCLUSIONS: A risk-assessment tool, which we developed to integrate the high-sensitivity troponin I or troponin T concentration at emergency department presentation, its dynamic change during serial sampling, and the time between the obtaining of samples, was used to estimate the probability of myocardial infarction on emergency department presentation and 30-day outcomes. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research [DZHK]; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00470587, NCT02355457, NCT01852123, NCT01994577, and NCT03227159; and Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry numbers, ACTRN12611001069943, ACTRN12610000766011, ACTRN12613000745741, and ACTRN12611000206921.).

Human gut microbes impact host serum metabolome and insulin sensitivity.

Insulin resistance is a forerunner state of ischaemic cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Here we show how the human gut microbiome impacts the serum metabolome and associates with insulin resistance in 277 non-diabetic Danish individuals. The serum metabolome of insulin-resistant individuals is characterized by increased levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs), which correlate with a gut microbiome that has an enriched biosynthetic potential for BCAAs and is deprived of genes encoding bacterial inward transporters for these amino acids. Prevotella copri and Bacteroides vulgatus are identified as the main species driving the association between biosynthesis of BCAAs and insulin resistance, and in mice we demonstrate that P. copri can induce insulin resistance, aggravate glucose intolerance and augment circulating levels of BCAAs. Our findings suggest that microbial targets may have the potential to diminish insulin resistance and reduce the incidence of common metabolic and cardiovascular disorders.

Population-based epidemiology: The Glostrup Population Studies 1964-2021.

The Glostrup Population Studies are population-based cohorts undertaken in the south-western part of Greater Copenhagen since 1964. The participants were randomly selected from the adult general population. The first cohort was established to assess cardiovascular risk factors and, since, the objectives have been broadened to describe and analyse the health of the general population. The studies are health-examination studies with clinical and biochemical data in addition to data from self-administered questionnaires and, in some studies, interviews. Fasting blood and urine samples were collected and stored in our biobank for further studies. Several of the cohorts were performed according to standardized methods in international consortia, hence data have been pooled with other, both Danish and international, cohorts. To date more than 30,000 individuals, both men and women, aged 15-85 years, have participated in The Glostrup Population Studies and participants have been re-examined up to eight times. The data can be used for disease-specific epidemiology, social epidemiology, genetic epidemiology, ageing, lifestyle and health interventions nested within the cohorts. The Glostrup Population Studies represent a great resource; the possibility of merging the different cohorts enables large datasets, as well as trends over time. Furthermore, the long follow-up in both the national registers and with follow-up examinations is unique. The purpose of this commentary is to inform about The Glostrup Population Studies and to invite collaborations to continue utilizing this great resource to combat current and future challenges within health promotion and disease prevention.

Normative values of short-term heart rate variability in a cross-sectional study of a Danish population. The DanFunD study.

AIMS: The autonomic nervous system includes parasympathetic and sympathetic components that monitor and regulate most of the bodily functions and play a central role in the physiology and homeostasis of the human body. Heart rate variability is a non-invasive tool for quantification of rhythmic fluctuations in heart rate that reflects the function of the autonomic nervous system. The study aims to describe the heart rate variability distribution in the general population, stratified in sex and age groups, which is currently insufficiently described. METHODS: A cross-sectional population-based study recruited participants in 10 municipalities in the western part of the greater Copenhagen area in Denmark, including 6891 men and women aged 18-72 years (participation rate was 29.5%). Short-term heart rate variability measures were obtained and related to age and gender. RESULTS: Both time and frequency domain measures showed a huge variation in the different sex and age groups. Women had a higher median heart rate than men, and the association with age was U-shaped. Measures indicating a predominance of the parasympathetic component in relation to the sympathetic component were more frequent in women and younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Both sex and age influence the heart rate variability in this adult Danish population. Therefore, our age- and sex-related reference values of heart rate variability in the time and frequency domain should be used in further epidemiological and clinical research.

Examine the public health impacts of functional somatic disorders using the DanFunD study.

Background: Persistent physical symptoms (e.g. pain, fatigue) are prevalent in the population and some persons may develop a functional somatic disorder (FSD). We still need to explore the limits between general bodily sensations and FSD, and great controversies exist as regard delimitation, occurrence, risk factors, prognosis, and costs of FSD in the general population. This is mainly due to the lack of focused, sufficient powered, population-based epidemiological studies. Material and Methods: The DanFunD study is the largest focused population-based study on FSD and has the potential to answer these crucial questions regarding the FSD disorders. DanFunD has its origin in the Copenhagen area of Denmark and was initiated in 2009 by an interdisciplinary team of researchers including basic scientists, clinical researchers, epidemiologists, and public health researchers. A population-based cohort of nearly 10,000 people have filled in detailed questionnaires, gone through a thorough health examination, and a biobank is established. The cohort was re-examined after five years. Results:The prevalence of FSD in the Danish population is about 10-15% and is twice as common in women as in men. Persons with FSD report impaired daily activities and low self-perceived health, which qualifies FSD as a major public health problem. The research plan to unravel the risk factors for FSD employs a bio-psycho-social approach according to a detailed plan. Preliminary results are presented, and work is in progress. Likewise, plans for assessing prognosis and health care costs are provided. Conclusion: We invite researchers in the field to collaborate on this unique data material.

Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes.

AIMS: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention.

Influence of educational level on test and treatment for incident hypothyroidism.

OBJECTIVE: The incidence of hypothyroidism is not expected to differ by socioeconomic factors. However, the decision to test and initiate treatment may differ. We aimed to examine whether educational level influences the probability of thyroid stimulation hormone (TSH)-measurement and initiation of levothyroxine treatment. DESIGN: Citizens in the greater Copenhagen Area during 2001-2015 were included. Individual-level data on educational level, diagnoses, GP-contact, TSH-measurement and medication were derived from administrative and healthcare registers. The relative risks (RR) between educational levels of annual TSH-measurement and treatment initiation following a TSH-measurement were analysed in Poisson regression models with generalized estimation equations. RESULTS: A TSH-measurement was performed in 19% of 9,390,052 person years. The probability of TSH-measurement was higher with short (RR 1.16 [95% CI 1.15-1.16]) and medium (RR 1.11 [95% CI 1.06-1.12]) compared with long education. Treatment was initiated after 0.8% of 2,049,888 TSH-measurements. For TSH < 5 mIU/L, RR for treatment initiation ranged between 0.47 (95%CI 0.39-0.57) and 0.78 (95%CI 0.67-0.91) for short and medium compared with long education. For TSH 5-10 mIU/L, there was no statistically significant difference. For TSH > 10 mIU/L, RR was 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.12) for short and 1.08 (95% CI 1.03-1.13) for medium compared with long education. CONCLUSION: The probability of TSH-measurement was higher with shorter education, and the probability of treatment initiation with TSH > 10 mIU/L was marginally higher with short-medium education compared with long education. However, the probability of treatment initiation with TSH < 5 mIU/L, that is treatment incongruous with guidelines, was substantially higher in persons with long education.

Disentangling type 2 diabetes and metformin treatment signatures in the human gut microbiota.

In recent years, several associations between common chronic human disorders and altered gut microbiome composition and function have been reported. In most of these reports, treatment regimens were not controlled for and conclusions could thus be confounded by the effects of various drugs on the microbiota, which may obscure microbial causes, protective factors or diagnostically relevant signals. Our study addresses disease and drug signatures in the human gut microbiome of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). Two previous quantitative gut metagenomics studies of T2D patients that were unstratified for treatment yielded divergent conclusions regarding its associated gut microbial dysbiosis. Here we show, using 784 available human gut metagenomes, how antidiabetic medication confounds these results, and analyse in detail the effects of the most widely used antidiabetic drug metformin. We provide support for microbial mediation of the therapeutic effects of metformin through short-chain fatty acid production, as well as for potential microbiota-mediated mechanisms behind known intestinal adverse effects in the form of a relative increase in abundance of Escherichia species. Controlling for metformin treatment, we report a unified signature of gut microbiome shifts in T2D with a depletion of butyrate-producing taxa. These in turn cause functional microbiome shifts, in part alleviated by metformin-induced changes. Overall, the present study emphasizes the need to disentangle gut microbiota signatures of specific human diseases from those of medication.

Taking no for an answer. Nurses' consultations with people with cardiac disease about rehabilitation: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Research shows that many people with cardiac disease decline cardiac rehabilitation. There is little or no knowledge on how health professionals respond to these people. OBJECTIVES: To investigate how nurses respond to people who do not wish to participate in cardiac rehabilitation and what influences the nurses´ approach towards these people. DESIGN: A qualitative study involving interviews and video-recordings using an analysis inspired by ethnographic principles and categorisation theory. SETTING: A rehabilitation clinic at a large hospital in the Capital Region of Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: Five cardiac nurses and 28 people with cardiac disease. METHODS: We video-recorded the first consultation people with cardiac disease attended regarding cardiac rehabilitation, where the nurses followed up on these people's recovery, medication, lifestyle and need for rehabilitation. We conducted semi-structured interviews with the cardiac nurses. We asked the nurses about the purpose of the first rehabilitation consultation and how they handle people with cardiac disease who say no to rehabilitation. The nurses were shown video-clips with the people they had talked to in their consultation in order to facilitate a dialogue. RESULTS: When people with cardiac disease were reluctant to participate in rehabilitation, the nurses made an individual assessment of how much effort to put into motivating them, taking a complex range of factors into account. The effort among the nurses towards people with cardiac disease who decline rehabilitation was smaller in cases when the nurses believed an individual would benefit less from rehabilitation or have difficulty participating. It was important for the nurses to balance their motivational efforts with showing respect for people's autonomy. CONCLUSION: Even when nurses endorse rehabilitation, some people with cardiac disease decline rehabilitation. The nurses' recommendation of the rehabilitation programme is influenced by the knowledge they obtain about the people with cardiac disease during consultations.

Cardiac Troponin I and Incident Stroke in European Cohorts: Insights From the BiomarCaRE Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is a common cause of death and a leading cause of disability and morbidity. Stroke risk assessment remains a challenge, but circulating biomarkers may improve risk prediction. Controversial evidence is available on the predictive ability of troponin concentrations and the risk of stroke in the community. Furthermore, reports on the predictive value of troponin concentrations for different stroke subtypes are scarce. METHODS: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) concentrations were assessed in 82 881 individuals (median age, 50.7 years; 49.7% men) free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline from 9 prospective European community cohorts. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine relative risks, followed by measures of discrimination and reclassification using 10-fold cross-validation to control for overoptimism. Follow-up was based upon linkage with national hospitalization registries and causes of death registries. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 3033 individuals were diagnosed with incident nonfatal or fatal stroke (n=1654 ischemic strokes, n=612 hemorrhagic strokes, and n=767 indeterminate strokes). In multivariable regression models, hsTnI concentrations were associated with overall stroke (hazard ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.10-1.21]), ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.09-1.21]), and hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01-1.20]). Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical cardiovascular risk factors (C indices, 0.809, 0.840, and 0.736 for overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively) increased the C index significantly but modestly. In individuals with an intermediate 10-year risk (5%-20%), the net reclassification improvement for overall stroke was 0.038 (P=0.021). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated hsTnI concentrations are associated with an increased risk of incident stroke in the community, irrespective of stroke subtype. Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical risk factors only modestly improved estimation of 10-year risk of stroke in the overall cohort but might be of some value in individuals at an intermediate risk.

Temporal relations between atrial fibrillation and ischaemic stroke and their prognostic impact on mortality.

AIMS: Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes.

Ischemic heart failure as a complication of incident acute myocardial infarction: Timing and time trends: A national analysis including 78,814 Danish patients during 2000-2009.

Aim: Heart failure is a serious complication of acute myocardial infarction leading to poor prognosis. We aimed at exploring time trends of heart failure and their impact on mortality among patients with an incident acute myocardial infarction. Methods: From the National Patient Danish Registry we collected data on all patients hospitalized with an incident of acute myocardial infarction during 2000-2009 and identified cases with in-hospital heart failure (presented on admission or developing heart failure during acute myocardial infarction hospitalization) or post-discharge heart failure (a hospitalization or outpatient visit following acute myocardial infarction discharge), and assessed in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year mortality. Results: Of the 78,814 patients included in the study, 10,248 (13.0%) developed in-hospital heart failure. The odds of in-hospital heart failure declined 0.9% per year (odds ratio=0.991, 95% confidence interval: 0.983-0.999). In-hospital heart failure was associated with 13% (odds ratio=1.13, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.20) and 14% (odds ratio=1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.20) higher in-hospital and 30-day mortality, respectively. Of the 61,637 patients discharged alive without in-hospital heart failure, 5978 (9.7%) experienced post-discharge heart failure, 4116 (6.7%) were hospitalized and 1862 (3.0%) were diagnosed at outpatient clinics. The risk of heart failure requiring hospitalization declined 5.5% per year (hazard ratio=0.945, 95% confidence interval: 0.934-0.955) whereas the risk of heart failure diagnosed at outpatient clinics increased 13.4% per year (hazard ratio=1.134, 95% confidence interval: 1.115-1.153). Post-discharge heart failure was associated with 239% (hazard ratio=3.39, 95% confidence interval: 3.18-3.63) higher 1-year mortality. Conclusions: In-hospital and post-discharge heart failure requiring hospitalization decreased whereas post-discharge heart failure diagnosed at outpatient clinics increased among incident acute myocardial infarction patients during 2000-2009. The development of heart failure, especially after acute myocardial infarction discharge, indicates a poor prognosis.

Prevalence of functional somatic syndromes and bodily distress syndrome in the Danish population: the DanFunD study.

Aims: Little is known about the prevalence and characteristics of functional somatic syndromes (FSS) such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), fibromyalgia (FM), chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), whiplash associated disorders (WAD), multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS), and bodily distress syndrome (BDS) in the general population when they are investigated simultaneously. Method: This cross-sectional study is based on the Danish Study of Functional Disorders (DanFunD) cohort consisting of 9656 adults from the general population. FSS and BDS were identified by questionnaires and characterized by age, sex, vocational training, physical health and comorbidity with physical and psychiatric disease. Results: In total, 16.3% (95% CI: 15.6-17.1) of the participants fulfilled the criteria for at least one FSS, ranging from 1.7% for WAD to 8.6% for CFS, and 16.1% (95% CI: 15.4-16.9) fulfilled the criteria for BDS. Cases had a high risk of poor self-perceived health, limitations in daily activities, and a high psychiatric comorbidity, all increasing with the number of syndromes in each individual. However, the associations differed across the various FSS. Mutual overlaps of IBS, FM and CFS were greater than could be expected by chance. Conclusions: FSS and BDS are prevalent in the adult Danish population, and cases have high risk of poor self-perceived health, limitation in daily activities, and psychiatric comorbidity. These associations were particularly strong for cases with multiple FSS and multi-organ BDS.

Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies.

AIMS: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. CONCLUSION: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Variant ASGR1 Associated with a Reduced Risk of Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Several sequence variants are known to have effects on serum levels of non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol that alter the risk of coronary artery disease. METHODS: We sequenced the genomes of 2636 Icelanders and found variants that we then imputed into the genomes of approximately 398,000 Icelanders. We tested for association between these imputed variants and non-HDL cholesterol levels in 119,146 samples. We then performed replication testing in two populations of European descent. We assessed the effects of an implicated loss-of-function variant on the risk of coronary artery disease in 42,524 case patients and 249,414 controls from five European ancestry populations. An augmented set of genomes was screened for additional loss-of-function variants in a target gene. We evaluated the effect of an implicated variant on protein stability. RESULTS: We found a rare noncoding 12-base-pair (bp) deletion (del12) in intron 4 of ASGR1, which encodes a subunit of the asialoglycoprotein receptor, a lectin that plays a role in the homeostasis of circulating glycoproteins. The del12 mutation activates a cryptic splice site, leading to a frameshift mutation and a premature stop codon that renders a truncated protein prone to degradation. Heterozygous carriers of the mutation (1 in 120 persons in our study population) had a lower level of non-HDL cholesterol than noncarriers, a difference of 15.3 mg per deciliter (0.40 mmol per liter) (P=1.0×10(-16)), and a lower risk of coronary artery disease (by 34%; 95% confidence interval, 21 to 45; P=4.0×10(-6)). In a larger set of sequenced samples from Icelanders, we found another loss-of-function ASGR1 variant (p.W158X, carried by 1 in 1850 persons) that was also associated with lower levels of non-HDL cholesterol (P=1.8×10(-3)). CONCLUSIONS: ASGR1 haploinsufficiency was associated with reduced levels of non-HDL cholesterol and a reduced risk of coronary artery disease. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Changes in subtypes of overt thyrotoxicosis and hypothyroidism following iodine fortification.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of mandatory iodine fortification (IF) on the incidence of nosological subtypes of overt thyrotoxicosis and hypothyroidism. DESIGN: We identified and scrutinized all possible new cases of overt thyrotoxicosis and hypothyroidism in an open cohort in Northern Jutland (n = 309 434; 1 January 1997) during the years 2014-2016. Individual medical history was evaluated to verify and detail the incidence of overt thyroid dysfunction and for classification into nosological subtypes. A number of cases were excluded during final verification due to spontaneous normalization of thyroid function, as they had no medical history suggesting a known condition, which could transiently affect thyroid function (subacute/silent thyroiditis, PPTD and iatrogenic thyroid dysfunction). An identical survey was conducted in 1997-2000 prior to mandatory IF of salt (13 µg/g) that was in effect from year 2001. RESULTS: The standardized incidence rate (SIR) of verified overt thyrotoxicosis decreased markedly from 97.5/100 000/year in 1997-2000 to 48.8 in 2014-2016 (SIRR: 0.50 [95% CI: 0.45-0.56]). This was due to a distinct decrease in the SIR of multinodular toxic goitre (SIRR: 0.18 [0.15-0.23]), solitary toxic adenoma (SIRR: 0.26 [0.16-0.43]) and to a lesser degree Graves' disease (SIRR: 0.67 [0.56-0.79]). SIR for overt hypothyroidism was unaltered by 2014-2016 (SIRR: 1.03 [0.87-1.22]). However, age distribution shifted with more young and fewer elderly cases of verified overt hypothyroidism. CONCLUSION: Mandatory IF caused a substantial reduction in SIR of verified overt thyrotoxicosis (especially of nodular origin) while avoiding an increase in SIR of verified overt hypothyroidism.

Richness of human gut microbiome correlates with metabolic markers.

We are facing a global metabolic health crisis provoked by an obesity epidemic. Here we report the human gut microbial composition in a population sample of 123 non-obese and 169 obese Danish individuals. We find two groups of individuals that differ by the number of gut microbial genes and thus gut bacterial richness. They contain known and previously unknown bacterial species at different proportions; individuals with a low bacterial richness (23% of the population) are characterized by more marked overall adiposity, insulin resistance and dyslipidaemia and a more pronounced inflammatory phenotype when compared with high bacterial richness individuals. The obese individuals among the lower bacterial richness group also gain more weight over time. Only a few bacterial species are sufficient to distinguish between individuals with high and low bacterial richness, and even between lean and obese participants. Our classifications based on variation in the gut microbiome identify subsets of individuals in the general white adult population who may be at increased risk of progressing to adiposity-associated co-morbidities.