Ecotoxicological mechanisms and models in an impact analysis tool for oil spills.

In an international collaborative effort, an impact analysis tool is being developed to predict the effect of accidental oil spills on recruitment and production of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the Barents Sea. The tool consisted of three coupled ecological models that describe (1) plankton biomass dynamics, (2) cod larvae growth, and (3) fish stock dynamics. The discussions from a series of workshops are presented in which variables and parameters of the first two ecological models were listed that may be affected by oil-related compounds. In addition, ecotoxicological algorithms are suggested that may be used to quantify such effects and what the challenges and opportunities are for algorithm parameterization. Based on model exercises described in the literature, survival and individual growth of cod larvae, survival and reproduction of zooplankton, and phytoplankton population growth are denoted as variables and parameters from the ecological models that might be affected in case of an oil spill. Because toxicity databases mostly (67%) contain data for freshwater species in temperate environments, parameterization of the ecotoxicological algorithms describing effects on these endpoints in the subarctic marine environment is not straightforward. Therefore, it is proposed that metadata analyses be used to estimate the sensitivity of subarctic marine species from available databases. To perform such analyses and reduce associated uncertainty and variability, mechanistic models of varying complexity, possibly aided by new experimental data, are proposed. Lastly, examples are given of how seasonality in ecosystems may influence chemical effects, in particular in the subarctic environment. Food availability and length of day were identified as important characteristics as these determine nutritional status and phototoxicity, respectively.

Living in highly dynamic polluted river floodplains, do contaminants contribute to population and community effects?

The aim of this paper was to collect evidence for the effects of contaminants on biota in a highly dynamic river Rhine floodplain. To this purpose we reviewed the results of circa 10 studies performed in this floodplain. The floodplain was contaminated with elevated levels of cadmium, copper, PAHs, and PCBs and high levels of zinc which were at some sites above legislative values. The results showed that the present contaminants were accumulated by the floodplain inhabiting organisms, but meanwhile population and community effects were ambiguous. Only for the mayfly Ephoron virgo clear effects were detected at the level of the single floodplain. The absence of clear population and community effects is puzzling since at lower contaminant concentrations adverse effects were detected in other environments. Factors that may mask toxic effects include flooding and food quality and quantity. We conclude that given the site specific conditions, being an open, eutrophic system with a highly dynamic flooding pattern, assessment of the contribution of toxicants to observed population density or biomass and community composition requires 1] an increase in number of replicates; 2] a larger scale of investigation and 3] comparison to stable systems with comparable contamination levels.

Transfer of heavy metals in the food chain earthworm Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa): comparison of a polluted and a reference site in The Netherlands.

The Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa) is a migratory wader that favours wet meadows for breeding. The species has a Red List status in The Netherlands, as it strongly declined in numbers since the 1960s. Intensification of agriculture and land use change resulting in habitat loss are considered major causes of this decline. In some areas the breeding habitat is contaminated with heavy metals. Adult godwits mainly feed on earthworms in the breeding season, which are known to accumulate heavy metals from the soil. In this paper we investigate the transfer of heavy metals from the soil to the Black-tailed godwit, which may have an additive negative effect on the viability of local populations. We measured heavy metal concentrations in soil, earthworms, and godwit eggs and feathers at a polluted and a reference site. The results suggest that Lead, Mercury and Cadmium are transferred from the soil to godwits even though the species spends only a few months in the breeding area during the year.

How including ecological realism impacts the assessment of the environmental effect of oil spills at the population level: The application of matrix models for Arctic Calanus species.

For oil spill responses, assessment of the potential environmental exposure and impacts of a spill is crucial. Due to a lack of chronic toxicity data, acute data is used together with precautionary assumptions. The effect on the Arctic keystone (copepod) species Calanus hyperboreus and Calanus glacialis populations is compared using two approaches: a precautionary approach where all exposed individuals die above a defined threshold concentration and a refined (full-dose-response) approach. For this purpose a matrix population model parameterised with data from the literature is used. Population effects of continuous exposures with varying durations were modelled on a range of concentrations. Just above the chronic No Observed Effect Concentration (which is field relevant) the estimated population recovery duration of the precautionary approach was more than 300 times that of the refined approach. With increasing exposure concentration and duration, the effect in the refined approach converges to the maximum effect assumed in the precautionary approach.

Impact of a changed inundation regime caused by climate change and floodplain rehabilitation on population viability of earthworms in a lower River Rhine floodplain.

River floodplains are dynamic and fertile ecosystems where soil invertebrates such as earthworms can reach high population densities. Earthworms are an important food source for a wide range of organisms including species under conservation such as badgers. Flooding, however, reduces earthworm numbers. Populations recover from cocoons that survive floods. If the period between two floods is too short such that cocoons cannot develop into reproductive adults, populations cannot sustain themselves. Both climate change and floodplain rehabilitation change the flooding frequency affecting earthworm populations. The present paper estimates the influence of climate change and floodplain rehabilitation on the viability of earthworm populations in a Dutch floodplain; the Afferdensche and Deestsche Waarden along the River Waal. This floodplain will be part of major river rehabilitation plans of the Dutch government. In those plans, the floodplain will experience the construction of a secondary channel and the removal of part of its minor embankment. To estimate the impact of these plans and climate change, we used a dataset of daily discharges for 1900-2003 for the River Rhine at the Dutch-German border. We perturbed this dataset to obtain two new datasets under climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100. From the original and two projected datasets we derived the frequency distributions for the annual periods without inundations for the studied floodplain. We subsequently compared the duration of these inundation-free (dry) periods with the maturation age distribution for L. rubellus as derived from a Dynamic Energy Budget model. This comparison yielded in which parts of our study area and under which climate conditions the populations would still be viable, be able to adapt or become extinct. The results show that climate change has almost no adverse effect on earthworm viability. This is because climate change reduces the flooding frequency during the earthworms growing season. Floodplain rehabilitation, on the other hand, reduces the part of the floodplain area where populations can sustain themselves. Before rehabilitation, only 12% of the floodplain area cannot sustain a viable earthworm population. After rehabilitation, this increases to 59%, 28% of which is due to more frequent flooding. Enhanced exposure to soil contaminants may further suppress earthworm viability. This could frustrate further nature development and the viability of earthworm-dependent species such as the badger (Meles meles) or little owl (Athene noctua vidalli species), which is an objective of the river rehabilitation plans in the Netherlands.

Field effects of pollutants in dynamic environments. A case study on earthworm populations in river floodplains contaminated with heavy metals.

In industrialized countries river floodplains can be strongly polluted with heavy metals. Published studies on effects of heavy metal pollution on soil invertebrates in floodplains, however, are inconclusive. This is unexpected since studies in other less dynamic environments reported clear effects at even lower levels of pollution. Flooding induces extra variation in invertebrate biomass and abundance which may reduce the probability to detect heavy metal effects. In this paper we combine reported data from studies on river floodplains in The Netherlands and Belgium and statistically analyze the effect of heavy metals on species composition, biomass, density and individual weight of earthworms. Interaction effects of heavy metal stress and flooding are also considered. The results suggest clear effects of zinc and copper on all variables and interaction of heavy metals and flooding for individual weight.

Extending a combined dynamic energy budget matrix population model with a bayesian approach to assess variation in the intrinsic rate of population increase. An example in the earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra.

Matrix models can be used to extrapolate effects of environmental toxicants on life history parameters to the population level. In applications of these models, life history parameters are usually treated as independent factors; however, they are actually strongly linked to each other. To interpret the effect of toxicants on life history parameters considering their interrelatedness the dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory can be applied. This theory is based on closed energy and mass balances and describes in a mechanistic way the acquisition and use of energy by individuals. In the present study we extended an existing combined DEB and matrix population model with an approach to take covariability of the DEB parameters into account. This was accomplished by estimating the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using Bayesian statistics. We used this model to extrapolate effects of copper in the common earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra to the population level.

Population growth and development of the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus in a polluted field soil: possible consequences for the godwit (Limosa limosa).

Many soils are polluted with mixtures of moderate levels of contaminants. In The Netherlands 175,000 sites in rural areas are classified as highly polluted. However, it remains unclear to what extent local ecosystems are endangered. In this paper, we report on the effect of contaminants on earthworms in a meadow system. We tested a polluted and a reference field soil with similar soil characteristics and agricultural use. In the polluted soil copper, mercury, and lead were elevated by more than 200% compared with the reference soil. Bioassays on growth and reproduction in the earthworm species Lumbricus rubellus were executed in both soils, and a population model was used to assess the population-level consequences of changes in growth and reproduction. No significant effects were seen on reproduction and survival in L. rubellus, but development was retarded in the polluted soil. This resulted in a 23% lower growth rate and a change in demography toward younger individuals. Field data on population composition of earthworms were used to support the laboratory results, and the relevance of the results for the godwit (Limosa limosa), which mainly feeds on earthworms during the breeding season, is discussed.

Toward a harmonized approach for environmental assessment of human activities in the marine environment.

With a foreseen increase in maritime activities, and driven by new policies and conventions aiming at sustainable management of the marine ecosystem, spatial management at sea is of growing importance. Spatial management should ensure that the collective pressures caused by anthropogenic activities on the marine ecosystem are kept within acceptable levels. A multitude of approaches to environmental assessment are available to provide insight for sustainable management, and there is a need for a harmonized and integrated environmental assessment approach that can be used for different purposes and variable levels of detail. This article first provides an overview of the main types of environmental assessments: "environmental impact assessment" (EIA), "strategic environmental assessment" (SEA), "cumulative effect assessment" (CEA), and "environmental (or ecological) risk assessment" (ERA). Addressing the need for a conceptual "umbrella" for the fragmented approaches, a generic framework for environmental assessment is proposed: cumulative effects of offshore activities (CUMULEO). CUMULEO builds on the principle that activities cause pressures that may lead to adverse effects on the ecosystem. Basic elements and variables are defined that can be used consistently throughout sequential decision-making levels and diverse methodological implementations. This enables environmental assessment to start at a high strategic level (i.e., plan and/or program level), resulting in early environmental awareness and subsequently more informed, efficient, and focused project-level assessments, which has clear benefits for both industry and government. Its main strengths are simplicity, transparency, flexibility (allowing the use of both qualitative and quantitative data), and visualization, making it a powerful framework to support discussions with experts, stakeholders, and policymakers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:632-642. © 2015 SETAC.

Estimating the impact of petroleum substances on survival in early life stages of cod (Gadus morhua) using the dynamic energy budget theory.

To estimate the impact of accidental oil-spills on cod fisheries a model framework is developed in which a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model is applied to assess mortality caused by petroleum substances in early life stages. In this paper we report on a literature search and DEB analyses, aiming for cod specific DEB-parameters. Furthermore, we explored the relevance of Fathead minnow DEB-parameters as surrogate by comparing LC50 values calculated from DEB-parameters with literature. Cod specific DEB-parameters could not be estimated based on available literature. LC50 values calculated from Fathead minnow DEB-parameters were higher than literature LC50 for early life stages of fish. Applying an extrapolation factor of 50 to the DEB-parameters resulted in LC50 values that were below literature irrespective of life stage. Therefore, we propose to use the last as an estimate for early life stages in cod and recommend relevant experiments with individual petroleum substances on cod.

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment.

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO2 levels and related considerations of geological CO2 storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO2 levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.

Modelling bioaccumulation of oil constituents in aquatic species.

Crude oil poses a risk to marine ecosystems due to its toxicity and tendency to accumulate in biota. The present study evaluated the applicability of the OMEGA model for estimating oil accumulation in aquatic species by comparing model predictions of kinetic rates (absorption and elimination) and bioconcentration factors (BCF) with measured values. The model was a better predictor than the means of the measurements for absorption and elimination rate constants, but did not outperform the mean measured BCF. Model estimates and measurements differed less than one order of magnitude for 91%, 80% and 61% of the absorption and elimination rates and BCFs of all oil constituents, respectively. Of the "potentially modifying" factors: exposure duration, biotransformation, molecular mass, and water temperature, the last two tended to influence the performance of the model. Inclusion of more explanatory variables in the bioaccumulation model, like the molecular mass, is expected to improve model performance.

Extrapolating toxic effects on individuals to the population level: the role of dynamic energy budgets.

The interest of environmental management is in the long-term health of populations and ecosystems. However, toxicity is usually assessed in short-term experiments with individuals. Modelling based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory aids the extraction of mechanistic information from the data, which in turn supports educated extrapolation to the population level. To illustrate the use of DEB models in this extrapolation, we analyse a dataset for life cycle toxicity of copper in the earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra. We compare four approaches for the analysis of the toxicity data: no model, a simple DEB model without reserves and maturation (the Kooijman-Metz formulation), a more complex one with static reserves and simplified maturation (as used in the DEBtox software) and a full-scale DEB model (DEB3) with explicit calculation of reserves and maturation. For the population prediction, we compare two simple demographic approaches (discrete time matrix model and continuous time Euler-Lotka equation). In our case, the difference between DEB approaches and population models turned out to be small. However, differences between DEB models increased when extrapolating to more field-relevant conditions. The DEB3 model allows for a completely consistent assessment of toxic effects and therefore greater confidence in extrapolating, but poses greater demands on the available data.

Gaining insight in the interaction of zinc and population density with a combined dynamic energy budget and population model.

Laboratory tests are typically conducted under optimal conditions testing the single effect of a toxicant In the field, due to suboptimal conditions, density dependence can both diminish and enhance effects of toxicants on populations. A review of the literature indicated that general insight on interaction of density and toxicants is lacking, and therefore no predictions on their combined action can be made. In this paper the influence of zinc was tested at different population densities on the demographic rates: growth, reproduction, and survival in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Changes in these rates were extrapolated with a combined Dynamic energy budget (DEB) and a population model to assess consequences at the population level. Inference from the DEB model indicated that density decreased the assimilation of food whereas zinc increased the maintenance costs. The combined effects of density and zinc resulted in a decrease in the intrinsic rate of population increase which suddenly dropped to zero at combinations of zinc and density where development is so strongly retarded that individuals do not mature. This already happened at zinc levels where zinc induced mortality is low and therefore density enhances zinc effects and density dependent compensation is not expected.

Effects of vole fluctuations on the population dynamics of the barn owl Tyto alba.

Many predator species feed on prey that fluctuates in abundance from year to year. Birds of prey can face large fluctuations in food abundance i.e. small mammals, especially voles. These annual changes in prey abundance strongly affect the reproductive success and mortality of the individual predators and thus can be expected to influence their population dynamics and persistence. The barn owl, for example, shows large fluctuations in breeding success that correlate with the dynamics in voles, their main prey species. Analysis of the impact of fluctuations in vole abundance (their amplitude, peaks and lows, cycle length and regularity) with a simple predator prey model parameterized with literature data indicates population persistence is especially affected by years with low vole abundance. In these years the population can decline to low owl numbers such that the ensuing peak vole years cannot be exploited. This result is independent of the length and regularity of vole fluctuations. The relevance of this result for conservation of the barn owl and other birds of prey that show a numerical response to fluctuating prey species is discussed.

Analysing population numbers of the house sparrow in the Netherlands with a matrix model and suggestions for conservation measures.

The House Sparrow (Passer domesticus), formerly a common bird species, has shown a rapid decline in Western Europe over recent decades. In The Netherlands, its decline is apparent from 1990 onwards. Many causes for this decline have been suggested that all decrease the vital rates, i.e. survival and reproduction, but their actual impact remains unknown. Although the House Sparrow has been dominant in The Netherlands, data on life history characteristics for this bird species are scarce: data on reproduction are non-existent, and here we first present survival estimates based on live encounters and dead recoveries of marked individuals over the period 1976-2003, 14 years before and 14 years during the decline, reported to the Dutch Ringing Centre. We show that there is an indication that both juvenile and adult survival are lower during the period of decline.Secondly, to be able to analyse the relative impact of changes in the vital rates, we formulated a general matrix model based on a range of survival values between zero and one with a step size of 0.01 (both juvenile and adult yearly survival) and a range of realistic reproduction values (one, three or five fledglings per pair per year). With the matrix model, we calculated the finite rate of population change (lambda) and applied elasticity analysis. To diagnose the cause of the decline in the Dutch House Sparrow, we parameterised the model with estimates of survival values before and during the decline and present the resulting lambda. With the survival estimates from the declining period, lambda < 1 only if reproduction is relatively low. We discuss this result within the light of available literature data on survival in the House Sparrow. Finally, we evaluate which of the suggested causes of population decline should be reversed to mitigate the decline and how this can be achieved.