The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). Interpretation: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. Funding: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).

Higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in females with type 2 diabetes Mellitus: an Umbrella review of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that females with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) may have excess mortality risk compared to their male counterparts. An important next step to address the high global burden of T2DM and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an umbrella review to summarize data on sex differences in cardiovascular outcomes for patients with T2DM and assess the strength of the evidence observed. METHODS AND RESULTS: Medline and Embase were searched from inception till 7 August 2022 for systematic reviews and meta-analyses studying the effects of sex on cardiovascular outcomes in T2DM patients. Results from reviews were synthesized with a narrative synthesis, with a tabular presentation of findings and forest plots for reviews that performed a meta-analysis. 27 review articles evaluating sex differences in cardiovascular outcomes were included. Females with T2DM had a higher risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD; RRR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.32-1.76, P < 0.001), acute coronary syndrome (ACS; RRR: 1.38, 95%CI: 1.25-1.52, P < 0.001), heart failure (RRR: 1.09, 95%CI: 1.05-1.13, P < 0.001) than males. Females had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (RRR: 1.13, 95%CI: 1.07-1.19, P < 0.001), cardiac mortality (RRR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.11-2.00, P = 0.009) and CHD mortality (RRR: 1.44, 95%CI: 1.20-1.73, P < 0.001) as compared to males. CONCLUSIONS: This umbrella review demonstrates that females with T2DM have a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes than their male counterparts. Future research should address the basis of this heterogeneity and epidemiological factors for better quality of evidence, and identify actionable interventions that will narrow these sex disparities.

This umbrella review highlights the sex differences in adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), with females at a higher risk than males. This is contributed by both biological and healthcare disparities and underscores the need for equitable care and personalized medical therapy.Females with T2DM have a higher risk of coronary heart disease, acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, and cardiac mortality compared to males.Clinicians need to be aware of the substantial heterogeneity across the current T2DM studies, and future meta-analysis and large-scale studies examining sex differences in outcomes should attempt to address the heterogeneity and epidemiological factors for a better quality of evidence.

Socioeconomic deprivation and prognostic outcomes in acute coronary syndrome: A meta-analysis using multidimensional socioeconomic status indices.

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is an important prognosticator amongst patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This paper analysed the effects of SES on ACS outcomes. METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched for articles reporting outcomes of ACS patients stratified by SES using a multidimensional index, comprising at least 2 of the following components: Income, Education and Employment. A comparative meta-analysis was conducted using random-effects models to estimate the risk ratio of all-cause mortality in low SES vs high SES populations, stratified according to geographical region, study year, follow-up duration and SES index. RESULTS: A total of 29 studies comprising of 301,340 individuals were included, of whom 43.7% were classified as low SES. While patients of both SES groups had similar cardiovascular risk profiles, ACS patients of low SES had significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR:1.19, 95%CI: 1.10-1.1.29, p < 0.001) compared to patients of high SES, with higher 1-year mortality (RR:1.08, 95%CI:1.03-1.13, p = 0.0057) but not 30-day mortality (RR:1.07, 95%CI:0.98-1.16, p = 0.1003). Despite having similar rates of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-elevation ACS, individuals with low SES had lower rates of coronary revascularisation (RR:0.95, 95%CI:0.91-0.99, p = 0.0115) and had higher cerebrovascular accident risk (RR:1.25, 95%CI:1.01-1.55, p = 0.0469). Excess mortality risk was independent of region (p = 0.2636), study year (p = 0.7271) and duration of follow-up (p = 0.0604) but was dependent on the SES index used (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Low SES is associated with increased mortality post-ACS, with suboptimal coronary revascularisation rates compared to those of high SES. Concerted efforts are needed to address the global ACS-related socioeconomic inequity. REGISTRATION AND PROTOCOL: The current study was registered with PROSPERO, ID: CRD42022347987.

Trends and predictions of malnutrition and obesity in 204 countries and territories: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Malnutrition and obesity are interdependent pathologies along the same spectrum. We examined global trends and projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from malnutrition and obesity until 2030. Methods: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study involving 204 countries and territories, trends in DALYs and deaths were described for obesity and malnutrition from 2000 to 2019, stratified by geographical regions (as defined by WHO) and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Malnutrition was defined according to the 10th revision of International Classification of Diseases codes for nutritional deficiencies, stratified by malnutrition type. Obesity was measured via body mass index (BMI) using metrics related to national and subnational estimates, defined as BMI ≥25 kg/m2. Countries were stratified into low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, and high SDI bands. Regression models were constructed to predict DALYs and mortality up to 2030. Association between age-standardised prevalence of the diseases and mortality was also assessed. Findings: In 2019, age-standardised malnutrition-related DALYs was 680 (95% UI: 507-895) per 100,000 population. DALY rates decreased from 2000 to 2019 (-2.86% annually), projected to fall 8.4% from 2020 to 2030. Africa and low SDI countries observed highest malnutrition-related DALYs. Age-standardised obesity-related DALY estimates were 1933 (95% UI: 1277-2640). Obesity-related DALYs rose 0.48% annually from 2000 to 2019, predicted to increase by 39.8% from 2020 to 2030. Highest obesity-related DALYs were in Eastern Mediterranean and middle SDI countries. Interpretation: The ever-increasing obesity burden, on the backdrop of curbing the malnutrition burden, is predicted to rise further. Funding: None.

Development and validation of the health belief model questionnaire to promote smoking cessation for nasopharyngeal cancer prevention: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: Lifestyle-induced nasopharyngeal carcinoma is a serious but preventable risk factor. This study serves to develop and validate a questionnaire that aims to predict the health behavioural intention on smoking cessation in Sarawak, Malaysia using the Health Belief Model (HBM). DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING: Urban and suburban areas in Sarawak, Malaysia. PARTICIPANTS: The preliminary items of the instrument were developed after extensive literature review. The instrument was translated into the Malay language using the forward-backwards method before commencing with the content validity by a panel of 10 experts. Face validity was done both quantitatively and qualitatively by 10 smokers. The construct validity of the instrument was evaluated through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). A total of 100 smokers participated in phase 1 for EFA, while 171 smokers participated in phase 2 for CFA. Internal consistency was measured using Cronbach's alpha coefficients to evaluate the reliability. RESULTS: In the exploratory stage, the factor loading of each item remained within the acceptable threshold. The final revised CFA yielded appropriate fit of the seven-factor model with the following model fit indices: χ2=641.705; df=500; p<0.001; comparative fit index=0.953; Tucker-Lewis Index=0.948; root mean square error of approximation=0.041. Satisfactory convergent validity and divergent validity were shown, with the exception of one pairwise construct. The internal reliability of these scales was above the desirable threshold, with Cronbach's alpha coefficients ranging from 0.705 to 0.864 and 0.838 to 0.889 in phases 1 and 2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study substantiated the instrument to be valid and reliable for predicting smokers' health behavioural intention to reduce cancer risk. The instrument is made up of 34 items, categorised into two sections, six HBM constructs and health behavioural intention. The instrument can be utilised for other smoking cessation-related cancers in different at-risk populations.