RESUMO
Analyzing the reasons why one would or would not act in a certain way was predicted to increase the perceived likelihood of the behavior and to lower the accuracy of the self-predictions. In 3 studies, college students predicted whether they would act in friendly or unfriendly ways toward an acquaintance. Those asked to analyze reasons why they would or would not perform the behaviors, as compared with no-analyze controls, were more likely to say they would perform the behaviors, showing a confirmation bias; made less accurate predictions, because analyzing reasons changed their predictions but not their actual behavior; and were more overconfident, because analyzing reasons lowered accuracy but not confidence. Each of these effects was especially pronounced when people's initial liking for the target person was different from the valence of the behavior they were predicting.
Assuntos
Comportamento , Ego , Feminino , Humanos , PrognósticoRESUMO
Previous research has shown that analyzing reasons can change people's attitudes, but the exact mechanisms of this effect have not been entirely clear. It was hypothesized that introspecting about reasons focuses people's attention on thoughts that are accessible in memory and increases the extent to which people view their accessible thoughts as applicable to their current attitudes. In Study 1, college students formed initial impressions of a target person, and then positive or negative thoughts about the target person were made memorable. After a delay, half of the participants analyzed reasons for their attitude and half recalled the target person's behaviors. As predicted, people who analyzed reasons reported attitudes toward the target person that were based more on what they could recall about her. Study 2 showed that this effect occurs regardless of whether people initially form an online impression. Implications for the effects of analyzing reasons and for attitude formation are discussed.