The velocity of postglacial migration of fire-adapted boreal tree species in eastern North America.

The Earth's climate has been warming rapidly since the beginning of the industrial era, forcing terrestrial organisms to adapt. Migration constitutes one of the most effective processes for surviving and thriving, although the speed at which tree species migrate as a function of climate change is unknown. One way to predict latitudinal movement of trees under the climate of the twenty-first century is to examine past migration since the Last Glacial Maximum. In this study, radiocarbon-dated macrofossils were used to calculate the velocity of past migration of jack pine (Pinus banksiana) and black spruce (Picea mariana), two important fire-adapted conifers of the North American boreal forest. Jack pine migrated at a mean rate of 19 km per century (km-cent) from unglaciated sites in the central and southeastern United States to the northern limit of the species in subarctic Canada. However, the velocity increased between unglaciated and early deglaciated sites in southern Quebec and slowed from early to mid-Holocene in central and eastern Quebec. Migration was at its lowest speed in late-Holocene times, when it stopped about 3,000 y ago. Compared with jack pine, black spruce migrated at a faster mean rate of 25 km-cent from the ice border at the last interstadial (Bølling/Allerød) to the species tree limit. The modern range of both species was nearly occupied about 6,000 y ago. The factors modulating the changing velocity of jack pine migration were closely associated with the warm-dry climate of the late Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the more humid climate of the mid- and late-Holocene.

Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests.

Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km2) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.