RESUMO
Wind power has been valued by countries for its renewability and cleanness and has become most of the focus of energy development in all countries. However, due to the uncertainty and volatility of wind power generation, making the grid-connected wind power system presents some serious challenges. Improving the accuracy of wind power prediction has become the focus of current research. Therefore, this paper proposes a combined short-term wind power prediction model based on T-LSTNet_markov to improve prediction accuracy. First, perform data cleaning and data preprocessing operations on the original data. Second, forecast using T-LSTNet model in original wind power data. Finally, calculate the error between the forecast value and the actual value. The k-means++ method and Weighted Markov process are used to correct errors and to get the result of the final prediction. The data that are collected from a wind farm in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed combined models. The empirical results show that the prediction accuracy is further improved after correcting errors.
Assuntos
Sistemas Computacionais , Incerteza , Previsões , Cadeias de Markov , ChinaRESUMO
Intelligent traffic light control (ITLC) algorithms are very efficient for relieving traffic congestion. Recently, many decentralized multi-agent traffic light control algorithms are proposed. These researches mainly focus on improving reinforcement learning method and coordination method. But, as all the agents need to communicate while coordinating with each other, the communication details should be improved as well. To guarantee communication effectiveness, two aspect should be considered. Firstly, a traffic condition description method need to be designed. By using this method, traffic condition can be described simply and clearly. Secondly, synchronization should be considered. As different intersections have different cycle lengths and message sending event happens at the end of each traffic signal cycle, every agent will receive messages of other agents at different time. So it is hard for an agent to decide which message is the latest one and the most valuable. Apart from communication details, reinforcement learning algorithm used for traffic signal timing should also be improved. In the traditional reinforcement learning based ITLC algorithms, either queue length of congested cars or waiting time of these cars is considered while calculating reward value. But, both of them are very important. So a new reward calculation method is needed. To solve all these problems, in this paper, a new ITLC algorithm is proposed. To improve communication efficiency, this algorithm adopts a new message sending and processing method. Besides, to measure traffic congestion in a more reasonable way, a new reward calculation method is proposed and used. This method takes both waiting time and queue length into consideration.