Association between social vulnerability and place of death during the first 2 years of COVID-19 in Massachusetts.

We investigated the relationship between individual-level social vulnerability and place of death during the infectious disease emergency of the COVID-19 pandemic in Massachusetts. Our research represents a unique contribution by matching individual-level death certificates with COVID-19 test data to analyse differences in distributions of place of death.

Modeling between-population variation in COVID-19 dynamics in Hubei, Lombardy, and New York City.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, formulating targeted policy interventions that are informed by differential severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission dynamics will be of vital importance to national and regional governments. We develop an individual-level model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accounts for location-dependent distributions of age, household structure, and comorbidities. We use these distributions together with age-stratified contact matrices to instantiate specific models for Hubei, China; Lombardy, Italy; and New York City, United States. Using data on reported deaths to obtain a posterior distribution over unknown parameters, we infer differences in the progression of the epidemic in the three locations. We also examine the role of transmission due to particular age groups on total infections and deaths. The effect of limiting contacts by a particular age group varies by location, indicating that strategies to reduce transmission should be tailored based on population-specific demography and social structure. These findings highlight the role of between-population variation in formulating policy interventions. Across the three populations, though, we find that targeted "salutary sheltering" by 50% of a single age group may substantially curtail transmission when combined with the adoption of physical distancing measures by the rest of the population.

Evolving Face Mask Guidance During a Pandemic and Potential Harm to Public Perception: Infodemiology Study of Sentiment and Emotion on Twitter.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention policies on face mask use fluctuated. Understanding how public health communications evolve around key policy decisions may inform future decisions on preventative measures by aiding the design of communication strategies (eg, wording, timing, and channel) that ensure rapid dissemination and maximize both widespread adoption and sustained adherence. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess how sentiment on masks evolved surrounding 2 changes to mask guidelines: (1) the recommendation for mask use on April 3, 2020, and (2) the relaxation of mask use on May 13, 2021. METHODS: We applied an interrupted time series method to US Twitter data surrounding each guideline change. Outcomes were changes in the (1) proportion of positive, negative, and neutral tweets and (2) number of words within a tweet tagged with a given emotion (eg, trust). Results were compared to COVID-19 Twitter data without mask keywords for the same period. RESULTS: There were fewer neutral mask-related tweets in 2020 (ß=-3.94 percentage points, 95% CI -4.68 to -3.21; P<.001) and 2021 (ß=-8.74, 95% CI -9.31 to -8.17; P<.001). Following the April 3 recommendation (ß=.51, 95% CI .43-.59; P<.001) and May 13 relaxation (ß=3.43, 95% CI 1.61-5.26; P<.001), the percent of negative mask-related tweets increased. The quantity of trust-related terms decreased following the policy change on April 3 (ß=-.004, 95% CI -.004 to -.003; P<.001) and May 13 (ß=-.001, 95% CI -.002 to 0; P=.008). CONCLUSIONS: The US Twitter population responded negatively and with less trust following guideline shifts related to masking, regardless of whether the guidelines recommended or relaxed mask usage. Federal agencies should ensure that changes in public health recommendations are communicated concisely and rapidly.

Real-time estimation of disease activity in emerging outbreaks using internet search information.

Understanding the behavior of emerging disease outbreaks in, or ahead of, real-time could help healthcare officials better design interventions to mitigate impacts on affected populations. Most healthcare-based disease surveillance systems, however, have significant inherent reporting delays due to data collection, aggregation, and distribution processes. Recent work has shown that machine learning methods leveraging a combination of traditionally collected epidemiological information and novel Internet-based data sources, such as disease-related Internet search activity, can produce meaningful "nowcasts" of disease incidence ahead of healthcare-based estimates, with most successful case studies focusing on endemic and seasonal diseases such as influenza and dengue. Here, we apply similar computational methods to emerging outbreaks in geographic regions where no historical presence of the disease of interest has been observed. By combining limited available historical epidemiological data available with disease-related Internet search activity, we retrospectively estimate disease activity in five recent outbreaks weeks ahead of traditional surveillance methods. We find that the proposed computational methods frequently provide useful real-time incidence estimates that can help fill temporal data gaps resulting from surveillance reporting delays. However, the proposed methods are limited by issues of sample bias and skew in search query volumes, perhaps as a result of media coverage.

A Platform for Monitoring Regional Antimicrobial Resistance, Using Online Data Sources: ResistanceOpen.

Background: Our understanding of the global burden of antimicrobial resistance is limited. Complementary approaches to antimicrobial resistance surveillance are needed. Methods: We developed a Web-based/mobile platform for aggregating, analyzing, and disseminating regional antimicrobial resistance information. Antimicrobial resistance indices from existing but disparate online sources were identified and abstracted. To validate antimicrobial resistance data, in the absence of regional comparators, US and Canadian indices were aggregated and compared to existing national and state estimates. Measures of variability of antimicrobial susceptibility were determined for the United States and Canada to evaluate magnitudes of differences within countries. Results: Over 850 resistance indices globally were identified and abstracted, totaling >5 million isolates, from 340 unique locations. Resistance index coverage spanned 41 countries, 6 continents, 43 of 50 US states, and 8 of 10 Canadian provinces. When compared to reported values, aggregated resistance values for the United States and Canada during 2013 and 2014 demonstrated agreements ranging from 94% to 97%. For the United States, state-specific resistance estimates demonstrated an agreement of 92%. Large differences in antimicrobial susceptibility were seen within countries. Conclusions: Using existing nontraditional data sources, we have developed a Web-based platform for aggregating antimicrobial resistance indices to support monitoring of regional antimicrobial resistance patterns.

Risks of Death and Severe Disease in Patients With Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, 2012-2015.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging pathogen, first recognized in 2012, with a high case fatality risk, no vaccine, and no treatment beyond supportive care. We estimated the relative risks of death and severe disease among MERS-CoV patients in the Middle East between 2012 and 2015 for several risk factors, using Poisson regression with robust variance and a bootstrap-based expectation maximization algorithm to handle extensive missing data. Increased age and underlying comorbidity were risk factors for both death and severe disease, while cases arising in Saudi Arabia were more likely to be severe. Cases occurring later in the emergence of MERS-CoV and among health-care workers were less serious. This study represents an attempt to estimate risk factors for an emerging infectious disease using open data and to address some of the uncertainty surrounding MERS-CoV epidemiology.

Mortality Risk Factors for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak, South Korea, 2015.

As of July 15, 2015, the South Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare had reported 186 case-patients with Middle East respiratory syndrome in South Korea. For 159 case-patients with known outcomes and complete case histories, we found that older age and preexisting concurrent health conditions were risk factors for death.

Massachusetts companion program bolsters COVID-19 vaccine rates among seniors.

In parts of the United States, COVID-19 vaccination rates remained low until late in Fall 2021 owing to both limited vaccine access and hesitancy. With colliding epidemics of RSV, flu, and COVID-19 in the winter, the retrospective evaluation of vaccine incentive policies is needed to inform future routine immunization campaigns. The Massachusetts companion program is one example of a policy that could boost vaccine uptake among older populations. Our regression discontinuity analysis suggests that the program was associated with an increase of up to 22 percentage points in the proportion of individuals aged 75 and older who have been fully vaccinated. Going forward, similar intervention strategies could be invaluable in scenarios where household contacts pose the greatest risk of transmission or where social ties can strongly influence individual decision-making.

"What's in a name?": Using mpox as a case study to understand the importance of communication, advocacy, and information accuracy in disease nomenclature.

Historically, many diseases have been named after the species or location of discovery, the discovering scientists, or the most impacted population. However, species-specific disease names often misrepresent the true reservoir; location-based disease names are frequently targeted with xenophobia; some of the discovering scientists have darker histories; and impacted populations have been stigmatized for this association. Acknowledging these concerns, the World Health Organization now proposes naming diseases after their causative pathogen or symptomatology. Recently, this guidance has been retrospectively applied to a disease at the center of an outbreak rife with stigmatization and misinformation: mpox (f.k.a. 'monkeypox'). This disease, historically endemic to west and central Africa, has prompted racist remarks as it spread globally in 2022 in an epidemic ongoing today. Moreover, its elevated prevalence among men who have sex with men has yielded increased stigma against the LGBTQ+ community. To address these prejudicial associations, 'monkeypox' was renamed 'mpox' in November 2022. We used publicly available data from Google Search Trends to determine which countries were quicker to adopt this name change-and understand factors that limit or facilitate its use. Specifically, we built regression models to quantify the relationship between 'mpox' search intensity in a given country and the country's type of political regime, robustness of sociopolitical and health systems, level of pandemic preparedness, extent of gender and educational inequalities, and temporal evolution of mpox cases through December 2023. Our results suggest that, when compared to 'monkeypox' search intensity, 'mpox' search intensity was significantly higher in countries with any history of mpox outbreaks or higher levels of LGBTQ+ acceptance; meanwhile, 'mpox' search intensity was significantly lower in countries governed by leaders who had recently propagated infectious disease misinformation. Among infectious diseases with stigmatizing names, mpox is among the first to be revised retrospectively. While the adoption of a given disease name will be context-specific-depending in part on its origins and the affected subpopulations-our study provides generalizable insights, applicable to future changes in disease nomenclature.

Corrigendum to "Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study" [The Lancet Regional Health-Americas 2023; 23: 100533].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2023.100533.].

Estimating time-varying cholera transmission and oral cholera vaccine effectiveness in Haiti and Cameroon, 2021-2023.

In 2023, cholera affected approximately 1 million people and caused more than 5000 deaths globally, predominantly in low-income and conflict settings. In recent years, the number of new cholera outbreaks has grown rapidly. Further, ongoing cholera outbreaks have been exacerbated by conflict, climate change, and poor infrastructure, resulting in prolonged crises. As a result, the demand for treatment and intervention is quickly outpacing existing resource availability. Prior to improved water and sanitation systems, cholera, a disease primarily transmitted via contaminated water sources, also routinely ravaged high-income countries. Crumbling infrastructure and climate change are now putting new locations at risk - even in high-income countries. Thus, understanding the transmission and prevention of cholera is critical. Combating cholera requires multiple interventions, the two most common being behavioral education and water treatment. Two-dose oral cholera vaccination (OCV) is often used as a complement to these interventions. Due to limited supply, countries have recently switched to single-dose vaccines (OCV1). One challenge lies in understanding where to allocate OCV1 in a timely manner, especially in settings lacking well-resourced public health surveillance systems. As cholera occurs and propagates in such locations, timely, accurate, and openly accessible outbreak data are typically inaccessible for disease modeling and subsequent decision-making. In this study, we demonstrated the value of open-access data to rapidly estimate cholera transmission and vaccine effectiveness. Specifically, we obtained non-machine readable (NMR) epidemic curves for recent cholera outbreaks in two countries, Haiti and Cameroon, from figures published in situation and disease outbreak news reports. We used computational digitization techniques to derive weekly counts of cholera cases, resulting in nominal differences when compared against the reported cumulative case counts (i.e., a relative error rate of 5.67% in Haiti and 0.54% in Cameroon). Given these digitized time series, we leveraged EpiEstim-an open-source modeling platform-to derive rapid estimates of time-varying disease transmission via the effective reproduction number ( R t ). To compare OCV1 effectiveness in the two considered countries, we additionally used VaxEstim, a recent extension of EpiEstim that facilitates the estimation of vaccine effectiveness via the relation among three inputs: the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ), R t , and vaccine coverage. Here, with Haiti and Cameroon as case studies, we demonstrated the first implementation of VaxEstim in low-resource settings. Importantly, we are the first to use VaxEstim with digitized data rather than traditional epidemic surveillance data. In the initial phase of the outbreak, weekly rolling average estimates of R t were elevated in both countries: 2.60 in Haiti [95% credible interval: 2.42-2.79] and 1.90 in Cameroon [1.14-2.95]. These values are largely consistent with previous estimates of R 0 in Haiti, where average values have ranged from 1.06 to 3.72, and in Cameroon, where average values have ranged from 1.10 to 3.50. In both Haiti and Cameroon, this initial period of high transmission preceded a longer period during which R t oscillated around the critical threshold of 1. Our results derived from VaxEstim suggest that Haiti had higher OCV1 effectiveness than Cameroon (75.32% effective [54.00-86.39%] vs. 54.88% [18.94-84.90%]). These estimates of OCV1 effectiveness are generally aligned with those derived from field studies conducted in other countries. Thus, our case study reinforces the validity of VaxEstim as an alternative to costly, time-consuming field studies of OCV1 effectiveness. Indeed, prior work in South Sudan, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported OCV1 effectiveness ranging from approximately 40% to 80%. This work underscores the value of combining NMR sources of outbreak case data with computational techniques and the utility of VaxEstim for rapid, inexpensive estimation of vaccine effectiveness in data-poor outbreak settings.

Epidemiologic Analysis of a Postelimination Measles Outbreak in Central Ohio, 2022-2023.

Importance: Postelimination outbreaks threaten nearly a quarter century of measles elimination in the US. Understanding these dynamics is essential for maintaining the nation's measles elimination status. Objective: To examine the demographic characteristics and transmission dynamics of the 2022 to 2023 central Ohio measles outbreak. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used electronic medical records and publicly available measles reports within an extensive central Ohio primary care network involving inpatient and outpatient settings. Participants included 90 children in Ohio with confirmed measles cases in 2022. Exposure: The exposure of interest was confirmed measles cases in Ohio in 2022. This included 5 internationally imported cases and 85 locally acquired cases. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome involved documenting and analyzing confirmed measles cases in Ohio in 2022, focusing on demographic characteristics, immunization status, and transmission links in outbreak-related cases. Results: This study analyzed 90 measles cases (47 [52.2%] male participants) in Ohio during 2022. Most participants self-identified as African or American Black (72 [80.0%]), with additional race categories including Asian, Hispanic, multirace (6 [6.7%]), White, and unknown (6 [6.7%]). Most participants were of Somali descent (64 [71.1%]), with additional ethnicity categories including American (16 [17.8%]), Guatemalan, Nepali, and unknown (6 [6.7%]). Participants were predominantly younger than 6 years (86 [95.5%]), unimmunized (89 [98.9%]), and resided in Franklin County, Ohio (83 [92.2%]). Prior to November 20, 2022, all cases occurred among unimmunized children of Somali descent in the Columbus area. Nosocomial superspreading events expanded the outbreak beyond the initially affected community. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study of measles cases in Ohio during 2022 found that the outbreak primarily affected unimmunized children of Somali descent, highlighting the necessity for culturally tailored public health strategies to maintain measles elimination in the US. These findings underscore the importance of implementing targeted interventions and enhancing community engagement to increase vaccination rates.

Measuring concordance of data sources used for infectious disease research in the USA: a retrospective data analysis.

OBJECTIVES: As highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers are eager to make use of a wide variety of data sources, both government-sponsored and alternative, to characterise the epidemiology of infectious diseases. The objective of this study is to investigate the strengths and limitations of sources currently being used for research. DESIGN: Retrospective descriptive analysis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Yearly number of national-level and state-level disease-specific case counts and disease clusters for three diseases (measles, mumps and varicella) during a 5-year study period (2013-2017) across four different data sources: Optum (health insurance billing claims data), HealthMap (online news surveillance data), Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports (official government reports) and National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (government case surveillance data). RESULTS: Our study demonstrated drastic differences in reported infectious disease incidence across data sources. When compared with the other three sources of interest, Optum data showed substantially higher, implausible standardised case counts for all three diseases. Although there was some concordance in identified state-level case counts and disease clusters, all four sources identified variations in state-level reporting. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers should consider data source limitations when attempting to characterise the epidemiology of infectious diseases. Some data sources, such as billing claims data, may be unsuitable for epidemiological research within the infectious disease context.

An Epidemic Model for Multi-Intervention Outbreaks.

Modeling is an important tool to utilize at the beginning of an infectious disease outbreak, as it allows estimation of parameters - such as the basic reproduction number, R0-that can be used to postulate how the outbreak may continue to spread. However, there exist many challenges that need to be accounted for, such as an unknown first case date, retrospective reporting of 'probable' cases, changing dynamics between case count and death count trends, and the implementation of multiple control efforts and their delayed or diminished effects. Using the near-daily data provided from the recent outbreak of Sudan ebolavirus in Uganda as a case study, we create a model and present a framework aimed at overcoming these aforementioned challenges. The impact of each challenge is examined by comparing model estimates and fits throughout our framework. Indeed, we found that allowing for multiple fatality rates over the course of an outbreak generally resulted in better fitting models. On the other hand, not knowing the start date of an outbreak appeared to have large and non-uniform effects on parameter estimates, particularly at the beginning stages of an outbreak. While models that did not account for the decaying effect of interventions on transmission underestimated R0, all decay models run on the full dataset yielded precise R0 estimates, demonstrating the robustness of R0 as a measure of disease spread when examining data from the entire outbreak.

Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study.

Background: Of the eight large (>50 cases) US postelimination outbreaks, the first and last occurred in Ohio. Ohio's vaccination registry is incomplete. Community-level immunity gaps threaten more than two decades of measles elimination in the US. We developed a statistical model, VaxEstim, to rapidly estimate the early-phase vaccination coverage and immunity gap in the exposed population during the 2022 Central Ohio outbreak. Methods: We used reconstructed daily incidence (from publicly available data) and assumptions about the distribution of the serial interval, or the time between symptom onset in successive measles cases, to estimate the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a partially immune population). We estimated early-phase measles vaccination coverage by comparing the effective reproduction number to the basic reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a fully susceptible population) while accounting for vaccine effectiveness. Finally, we estimated the early-phase immunity gap as the difference between the estimated critical vaccination threshold and vaccination coverage. Findings: VaxEstim estimated the early-phase vaccination coverage as 53% (95% credible interval, 21%-77%), the critical vaccination threshold as 93%, and the immunity gap as 42% (95% credible interval, 18%-74%). Interpretation: This study estimates a significant immunity gap in the exposed population during the early phase of the 2022 Central Ohio measles outbreak, suggesting a robust public health response is needed to identify the susceptible community and develop community-specific strategies to close the immunity gap. Funding: This work was supported in part by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, National Institutes of Health; the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology; Imperial College London, and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Community Jameel; the EDCTP2 programme, supported by the EU; and the Sergei Brin Foundation.

A mixed-methods assessment of off-duty police shootings in a media-curated database.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine rates of killings perpetrated by off-duty police and news coverage of those killings, by victim race and gender, and to qualitatively evaluate the contexts in which those killings occur. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: We used the Mapping Police Violence database to curate a dataset of killings perpetrated by off-duty police (2013-2021, N = 242). We obtained data from Media Cloud to assess news coverage of each off-duty police-perpetrated killing. STUDY DESIGN: Our study used a convergent mixed-methods design. We examined off-duty police-perpetrated killings by victim race and gender, comparing absolute rates and rates relative to total police-perpetrated killings. [Correction added on 26 June 2023, after first online publication: 'policy-perpetrated' has been changed to 'police-perpetrated' in the preceding sentence.] We also conducted race-gender comparisons of the frequency of news media reporting of these killings, and whether reporting identified the perpetrator as an off-duty officer. We conducted thematic analysis of the narrative free-text field that accompanied quantitative data using grounded theory. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Black men were the most frequent victims killed by off-duty police (39.3%) followed by white men (25.2%), Hispanic men (11.2%), white women (9.1%), men of unknown race (9.1%), and Black women (4.1%). Black women had the highest rate of off-duty/total police-perpetrated killings relative to white men (rate = 12.82%, RR = 8.32, 95% CI: 4.43-15.63). There were threefold higher odds of news reporting of a police-perpetrated killing and the off-duty status of the officer for incidents with Black and Hispanic victims. Qualitative analysis revealed that off-duty officers intervened violently within their own social networks; their presence escalated situations; they intentionally obscured information about their lethal violence; they intervened while impaired; their victims were often in crisis; and their intervention posed harm and potential secondary traumatization to witnesses. CONCLUSIONS: Police perpetrate lethal violence while off duty, compromising public health and safety. Additionally, off-duty police-perpetrated killings are reported differentially by the news media depending on the race of the victim.

Data Source Concordance for Infectious Disease Epidemiology.

Background: As highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers are eager to make use of a wide variety of data sources, both government-sponsored and alternative, to characterize the epidemiology of infectious diseases. To date, few studies have investigated the strengths and limitations of sources currently being used for such research. These are critical for policy makers to understand when interpreting study findings. Methods: To fill this gap in the literature, we compared infectious disease reporting for three diseases (measles, mumps, and varicella) across four different data sources: Optum (health insurance billing claims data), HealthMap (online news surveillance data), Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports (official government reports), and National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (government case surveillance data). We reported the yearly number of national- and state-level disease-specific case counts and disease clusters according to each of our sources during a five-year study period (2013-2017). Findings: Our study demonstrated drastic differences in reported infectious disease incidence across data sources. When compared against the other three sources of interest, Optum data showed substantially higher, implausible standardized case counts for all three diseases. Although there was some concordance in identified state-level case counts and disease clusters, all four sources identified variations in state-level reporting. Interpretation: Researchers should consider data source limitations when attempting to characterize the epidemiology of infectious diseases. Some data sources, such as billing claims data, may be unsuitable for epidemiological research within the infectious disease context.

Evaluating criminal justice reform during COVID-19: The need for a novel sentiment analysis package.

The health and safety of incarcerated persons and correctional personnel have been prominent in the U.S. news media discourse during the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining changing attitudes toward the health of the incarcerated population is imperative to better assess the extent to which the general public favors criminal justice reform. However, existing natural language processing lexicons that underlie current sentiment analysis (SA) algorithms may not perform adequately on news articles related to criminal justice due to contextual complexities. News discourse during the pandemic has highlighted the need for a novel SA lexicon and algorithm (i.e., an SA package) tailored for examining public health policy in the context of the criminal justice system. We analyzed the performance of existing SA packages on a corpus of news articles at the intersection of COVID-19 and criminal justice collected from state-level outlets between January and May 2020. Our results demonstrated that sentence sentiment scores provided by three popular SA packages can differ considerably from manually-curated ratings. This dissimilarity was especially pronounced when the text was more polarized, whether negatively or positively. A randomly selected set of 1,000 manually scored sentences, and the corresponding binary document term matrices, were used to train two new sentiment prediction algorithms (i.e., linear regression and random forest regression) to verify the performance of the manually-curated ratings. By better accounting for the unique context in which incarceration-related terminologies are used in news media, both of our proposed models outperformed all existing SA packages considered for comparison. Our findings suggest that there is a need to develop a novel lexicon, and potentially an accompanying algorithm, for analysis of text related to public health within the criminal justice system, as well as criminal justice more broadly.