Multiscale Assessment of Agricultural Consumptive Water Use in California's Central Valley.

Spatial estimates of crop evapotranspiration with high accuracy from the field to watershed scale have become increasingly important for water management, particularly over irrigated agriculture in semiarid regions. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment on patterns of annual agricultural water use over California's Central Valley, using 30-m daily evapotranspiration estimates based on Landsat satellite data. A semiempirical Priestley-Taylor approach was locally optimized and cross-validated with available field measurements for major crops including alfalfa, almond, citrus, corn, pasture, and rice. The evapotranspiration estimates explained >70% variance in daily measurements from independent sites with an RMSE of 0.88 mm day-1. When aggregated over the Valley, we estimated an average evapotranspiration of 820 ± 290 mm yr-1 in 2014. Agricultural water use varied significantly across and within crop types, with a coefficient of variation ranging from 8% for Rice (1,110 ± 85 mm yr-1) to 59% for Pistachio (592 ± 352 mm yr-1). Total water uses in 2016 increased by 9.6%, as compared to 2014, mostly because of land-use conversion from fallow/idle land to cropland. Analysis across 134 Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) further showed a large variation of agricultural evapotranspiration among and within GSAs, especially for tree crops, e.g., almond evapotranspiration ranging from 339 ± 80 mm yr-1 in Tracy to 1,240 ± 136 mm yr-1 in Tri-County Water Authority. Continuous monitoring and assessment of the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of agricultural evapotranspiration provide data-driven guidance for more effective land use and water planning across scales.

Planning for groundwater sustainability accounting for uncertainty and costs: An application to California's Central Valley.

In regions experiencing aquifer depletion, planning for groundwater sustainability requires both accurate accounting of current groundwater budgets and an assessment of future conditions, with changes in recharge and pumping. Hydrologic variability, climate change effects on water flows, changing water infrastructure operations, and inherent uncertainties in modeling, challenge the plans to achieve groundwater sustainability. This paper examines the importance, magnitude, and policy implications of uncertainties in groundwater overdraft estimation for water management in California. We review water balance estimates from two regional-scale groundwater models-C2VSim and CVHM-for sub-regions within California's Central Valley, and examine the variability and uncertainty in historical and future estimates of groundwater overdraft. Assuming reductions in agricultural water use for sub-regions with overdraft, we estimate the probabilities of ending groundwater overdraft for different periods. We also obtain the economic costs associated with these reductions in agricultural production. Results from both groundwater models show significant inter-annual variability in flows affecting groundwater storage, and our model comparison highlights the uncertainty in water budget estimates for Central Valley sub-regions given the differences between models. The analysis of the probabilities of achieving sustainability at the sub-regional scale show that the average overdraft rate is important and that greater variance in annual groundwater storage increases uncertainties in ending overdraft, especially for shorter periods. Greater reductions in annual net water increases the reliability of achieving groundwater sustainability, but rising rapidly agricultural economic losses. Setting management thresholds below groundwater levels can ease meeting sustainability criteria, but also can introduce a false pathway to sustainability. Finally, we discuss policy implications for the design of local groundwater sustainability plans and state assessment and regulation of local plans.

Ecosystem services in vineyard landscapes: a focus on aboveground carbon storage and accumulation.

BACKGROUND: Organic viticulture can generate a range of ecosystem services including supporting biodiversity, reducing the use of conventional pesticides and fertilizers, and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through long-term carbon (C) storage. Here we focused on aboveground C storage rates and accumulation using a one-year increment analysis applied across different winegrape varietals and different-aged vineyard blocks. This produced a chronosequence of C storage rates over what is roughly the productive lifespan of most vines (aged 2-30 years). To our knowledge, this study provides the first estimate of C storage rates in the woody biomass of vines. Additionally, we assessed C storage in wildland buffers and adjacent oak-dominated habitats over a 9-year period. RESULTS: Carbon storage averaged 6.5 Mg/Ha in vines. We found the average annual increase in woody C storage was 43% by mass. Variation correlated most strongly with vine age, where the younger the vine, the greater the relative increase in annual C. Decreases in C increment rates with vine age were more than offset by the greater overall biomass of older vines, such that C on the landscape continued to increase over the life of the vines at 18.5% per year on average. Varietal did not significantly affect storage rates or total C stored. Carbon storage averaged 81.7 Mg/Ha in native perennial buffer vegetation; we found an 11% increase in mass over 9 years for oak woodlands and savannas. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a decrease in the annual rate of C accumulation as vines age, we found a net increase in aboveground C in the woody biomass of vines. The results indicate the positive role that older vines play in on-farm (vineyard) C and overall aboveground accumulation rates. Additionally, we found that the conservation of native perennial vegetation as vineyard buffers and edge habitats contributes substantially to overall C stores. We recommend that future research consider longer time horizons for increment analysis, as this should improve the precision of C accumulation rate estimates, including in belowground (i.e., soil) reservoirs.

Virtues of simple hydro-economic optimization: Baja California, Mexico.

This paper uses simple hydro-economic optimization to investigate a wide range of regional water system management options for northern Baja California, Mexico. Hydro-economic optimization models, even with parsimonious model formulations, enable investigation of promising water management portfolios for supplying water to agricultural, environmental and urban users. CALVIN, a generalized hydro-economic model, is used in a case study of Baja California. This drought-prone region faces significant challenges to supply water to agriculture and its fast growing border cities. Water management portfolios include water markets, wastewater reuse, seawater desalination and infrastructure expansions. Water markets provide the flexibility to meet future urban demands; however conveyance capacity limits their use. Wastewater reuse and conveyance expansions are economically promising. At current costs desalination is currently uneconomical for Baja California compared to other alternatives. Even simple hydro-economic models suggest ways to increase efficiency of water management in water scarce areas, and provide an economic basis for evaluating long-term water management solutions.

The application of economic-engineering optimisation for water management in Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico.

Mathematical optimisation is used to integrate and economically evaluate wastewater reuse, desalination and other water management options for water supply in Ensenada, Baja California Mexico with future levels of population and water demand. The optimisation model (CALVIN) is used to explore and integrate water management alternatives such as water markets, reuse and seawater desalination, within physical capacity constraints and the region's water availability, minimising the sum of economic costs of water scarcity and operating costs within a region. The modelling approach integrates economic inputs from agricultural and urban water demand models with infrastructure and hydrological information, to identify an economically optimal water allocation between water users in Ensenada. Estimates of agricultural and urban economic water demands for year 2020 were used. The optimisation results indicate that wastewater reclamation and reuse for the city of Ensenada is the most economically promising alternative option to meet future water needs and make water imports less attractive. Seawater desalination and other options are not economically viable alone, but may have some utility if combined with other options for the Ensenada region.