Severe aortic stenosis: secular trends of incidence and outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Severe aortic stenosis (AS) is the guideline-based indication for aortic valve replacement (AVR), which has markedly increased with transcatheter approaches, suggesting possible increasing AS incidence. However, reported secular trends of AS incidence remain contradictory and lack quantitative Doppler echocardiographic ascertainment. METHODS: All adults residents in Olmsted County (MN, USA) diagnosed over 20 years (1997-2016) with incident severe AS (first diagnosis) based on quantitatively defined measures (aortic valve area ≤ 1 cm2, aortic valve area index ≤ 0.6 cm2/m2, mean gradient ≥ 40 mmHg, peak velocity ≥ 4 m/s, Doppler velocity index ≤ 0.25) were counted to define trends in incidence, presentation, treatment, and outcome. RESULTS: Incident severe AS was diagnosed in 1069 community residents. The incidence rate was 52.5 [49.4-55.8] per 100 000 patient-year, slightly higher in males vs. females and was almost unchanged after age and sex adjustment for the US population 53.8 [50.6-57.0] per 100 000 residents/year. Over 20 years, severe AS incidence remained stable (P = .2) but absolute burden of incident cases markedly increased (P = .0004) due to population growth. Incidence trend differed by sex, stable in men (incidence rate ratio 0.99, P = .7) but declining in women (incidence rate ratio 0.93, P = .02). Over the study, AS clinical characteristics remained remarkably stable and AVR performance grew and was more prompt (from 1.3 [0.1-3.3] years in 1997-2000 to 0.5 [0.2-2.1] years in 2013-16, P = .001) but undertreatment remained prominent (>40%). Early AVR was associated with survival benefit (adjusted hazard ratio 0.55 [0.42-0.71], P < .0001). Despite these improvements, overall mortality (3-month 8% and 3-year 36%), was swift, considerable and unabated (all P ≥ .4) throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: Over 20 years, the population incidence of severe AS remained stable with increased absolute case burden related to population growth. Despite stable severe AS presentation, AVR performance grew notably, but while declining, undertreatment remained substantial and disease lethality did not yet decline. These population-based findings have important implications for improving AS management pathways.

TRI-SCORE and benefit of intervention in patients with severe tricuspid regurgitation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Benefit of tricuspid regurgitation (TR) correction and timing of intervention are unclear. This study aimed to compare survival rates after surgical or transcatheter intervention to conservative management according to a TR clinical stage as assessed using the TRI-SCORE. METHODS: A total of 2,413 patients with severe isolated functional TR were enrolled in TRIGISTRY (1217 conservatively managed, 551 isolated tricuspid valve surgery, and 645 transcatheter valve repair). The primary endpoint was survival at 2 years. RESULTS: The TRI-SCORE was low (≤3) in 32%, intermediate (4-5) in 33%, and high (≥6) in 35%. A successful correction was achieved in 97% and 65% of patients in the surgical and transcatheter groups, respectively. Survival rates decreased with the TRI-SCORE in the three treatment groups (all P < .0001). In the low TRI-SCORE category, survival rates were higher in the surgical and transcatheter groups than in the conservative management group (93%, 87%, and 79%, respectively, P = .0002). In the intermediate category, no significant difference between groups was observed overall (80%, 71%, and 71%, respectively, P = .13) but benefit of the intervention became significant when the analysis was restricted to patients with successful correction (80%, 81%, and 71%, respectively, P = .009). In the high TRI-SCORE category, survival was not different to conservative management in the surgical and successful repair group (61% and 68% vs 58%, P = .26 and P = .18 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Survival progressively decreased with the TRI-SCORE irrespective of treatment modality. Compared to conservative management, an early and successful surgical or transcatheter intervention improved 2-year survival in patients at low and, to a lower extent, intermediate TRI-SCORE, while no benefit was observed in the high TRI-SCORE category.

Unmet needs in valvular heart disease.

Valvular heart disease (VHD) is the next epidemic in the cardiovascular field, affecting millions of people worldwide and having a major impact on health care systems. With aging of the population, the incidence and prevalence of VHD will continue to increase. However, VHD has not received the attention it deserves from both the public and policymakers. Despite important advances in the pathophysiology, natural history, management, and treatment of VHD including the development of transcatheter therapies, VHD remains underdiagnosed, identified late, and often undertreated with inequality in access to care and treatment options, and there is no medication that can prevent disease progression. The present review article discusses these gaps in the management of VHD and potential actions to undertake to improve the outcome of patients with VHD.

Dyslipidemia, inflammation, calcification, and adiposity in aortic stenosis: a genome-wide study.

AIMS: Although highly heritable, the genetic etiology of calcific aortic stenosis (AS) remains incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to discover novel genetic contributors to AS and to integrate functional, expression, and cross-phenotype data to identify mechanisms of AS. METHODS AND RESULTS: A genome-wide meta-analysis of 11.6 million variants in 10 cohorts involving 653 867 European ancestry participants (13 765 cases) was performed. Seventeen loci were associated with AS at P ≤ 5 × 10-8, of which 15 replicated in an independent cohort of 90 828 participants (7111 cases), including CELSR2-SORT1, NLRP6, and SMC2. A genetic risk score comprised of the index variants was associated with AS [odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation, 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-1.35; P = 2.7 × 10-51] and aortic valve calcium (OR per standard deviation, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.37; P = 1.4 × 10-3), after adjustment for known risk factors. A phenome-wide association study indicated multiple associations with coronary artery disease, apolipoprotein B, and triglycerides. Mendelian randomization supported a causal role for apolipoprotein B-containing lipoprotein particles in AS (OR per g/L of apolipoprotein B, 3.85; 95% CI, 2.90-5.12; P = 2.1 × 10-20) and replicated previous findings of causality for lipoprotein(a) (OR per natural logarithm, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.17-1.23; P = 4.8 × 10-73) and body mass index (OR per kg/m2, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.9; P = 1.9 × 10-12). Colocalization analyses using the GTEx database identified a role for differential expression of the genes LPA, SORT1, ACTR2, NOTCH4, IL6R, and FADS. CONCLUSION: Dyslipidemia, inflammation, calcification, and adiposity play important roles in the etiology of AS, implicating novel treatments and prevention strategies.

Trends in aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis: a French nationwide study.

AIMS: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) as an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) has profoundly changed the management of patients with aortic valve stenosis (AS). Large unbiased nationwide data regarding TAVR implementation, impact on SAVR and their respective outcomes are scarce. METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on a French administrative hospital-discharge database, we collected data on all consecutive aortic valve replacements (AVRs) performed in France for AS between 2007 and 2019 [106 253 isolated SAVR (49%), 46 514 combined SAVR (21%), and 65 651 TAVR (30%)]. The number of AVR linearly increased between 2007 and 2019 (from 10 892 to 23 109, P for trend < 0.0001) due to a marked increase in TAVR (from 253 to 13 030, P for trend < 0.0001), while SAVR increased up to 2013 and then declined (10 892 in 2007, 12 699 in 2013, and 10 079 in 2019). The Charlson index decreased linearly for TAVR, but in two steps for SAVR (2011 and 2017). In-hospital mortality rates of both SAVR and TAVR declined (both P for trend < 0.0001) and were similar or lower for TAVR than for isolated SAVR in patients 75 years or above in the last 3 years (2017-19). Complication rates of TAVR also declined but permanent pacemaker rates remained high and length of stay substantial (16.7% and median 6 days, respectively, in 2017-19). CONCLUSION: The number of AVR has doubled in a decade and TAVR has become the dominant form of AVR in 2018. The improvement in patient profiles seems to have anticipated the demonstrated benefit of TAVR in intermediate and low-risk patients. In patients 75 years or older, TAVR should be considered as the first option. We also highlight two important areas for improvement, the high permanent pacemaker rates, and the long length of stay even in the contemporary era. Our results may have major implications for clinical practice and policymakers.

Trends in aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis: a French nationwide study.

AIMS: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) as an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) has profoundly changed the management of patients with aortic valve stenosis (AS). Large unbiased nationwide data regarding TAVR implementation, impact on SAVR and their respective outcomes are scarce. METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on a French administrative hospital-discharge database, we collected data on all consecutive aortic valve replacements (AVRs) performed in France for AS between 2007 and 2019 [106 253 isolated SAVR (49%), 46 514 combined SAVR (21%), and 65 651 TAVR (30%)]. The number of AVR linearly increased between 2007 and 2019 (from 10 892 to 23 109, P for trend < 0.0001) due to a marked increase in TAVR (from 253 to 13 030, P for trend < 0.0001), while SAVR increased up to 2013 and then declined (10 892 in 2007, 12 699 in 2013, and 10 079 in 2019). The Charlson index decreased linearly for TAVR, but in two steps for SAVR (2011 and 2017). In-hospital mortality rates of both SAVR and TAVR declined (both P for trend < 0.0001) and were similar or lower for TAVR than for isolated SAVR in patients 75 years or above in the last 3 years (2017-19). Complication rates of TAVR also declined but permanent pacemaker rates remained high and length of stay substantial (16.7% and median 6 days, respectively, in 2017-19). CONCLUSION: The number of AVR has doubled in a decade and TAVR has become the dominant form of AVR in 2018. The improvement in patient profiles seems to have anticipated the demonstrated benefit of TAVR in intermediate and low-risk patients. In patients 75 years or older, TAVR should be considered as the first option. We also highlight two important areas for improvement, the high permanent pacemaker rates, and the long length of stay even in the contemporary era. Our results may have major implications for clinical practice and policymakers.

TRI-SCORE: a new risk score for in-hospital mortality prediction after isolated tricuspid valve surgery.

AIMS: Isolated tricuspid valve surgery (ITVS) is considered to be a high-risk procedure, but in-hospital mortality is markedly variable. This study sought to develop a dedicated risk score model to predict the outcome of patients after ITVS for severe tricuspid regurgitation (TR). METHODS AND RESULTS: All consecutive adult patients who underwent ITVS for severe non-congenital TR at 12 French centres between 2007 and 2017 were included. We identified 466 patients (60 ± 16 years, 49% female, functional TR in 49%). In-hospital mortality rate was 10%. We derived and internally validated a scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapping with 1000 re-samples. The final risk score ranged from 0 to 12 points and included eight parameters: age ≥70 years, New York Heart Association Class III-IV, right-sided heart failure signs, daily dose of furosemide ≥125 mg, glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min, elevated bilirubin, left ventricular ejection fraction <60%, and moderate/severe right ventricular dysfunction. Tricuspid regurgitation mechanism was not an independent predictor of outcome. Observed and predicted in-hospital mortality rates increased from 0% to 60% and from 1% to 65%, respectively, as the score increased from 0 up to ≥9 points. Apparent and bias-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.81 and 0.75, respectively, much higher than the logistic EuroSCORE (0.67) or EuroSCORE II (0.63). CONCLUSION: We propose TRI-SCORE as a dedicated risk score model based on eight easy to ascertain parameters to inform patients and physicians regarding the risk of ITVS and guide the clinical decision-making process of patients with severe TR, especially as transcatheter therapies are emerging (www.tri-score.com).

Percutaneous Repair or Medical Treatment for Secondary Mitral Regurgitation.

BACKGROUND: In patients who have chronic heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, severe secondary mitral-valve regurgitation is associated with a poor prognosis. Whether percutaneous mitral-valve repair improves clinical outcomes in this patient population is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients who had severe secondary mitral regurgitation (defined as an effective regurgitant orifice area of >20 mm2 or a regurgitant volume of >30 ml per beat), a left ventricular ejection fraction between 15 and 40%, and symptomatic heart failure, in a 1:1 ratio, to undergo percutaneous mitral-valve repair in addition to receiving medical therapy (intervention group; 152 patients) or to receive medical therapy alone (control group; 152 patients). The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of death from any cause or unplanned hospitalization for heart failure at 12 months. RESULTS: At 12 months, the rate of the primary outcome was 54.6% (83 of 152 patients) in the intervention group and 51.3% (78 of 152 patients) in the control group (odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 1.84; P=0.53). The rate of death from any cause was 24.3% (37 of 152 patients) in the intervention group and 22.4% (34 of 152 patients) in the control group (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.69 to 1.77). The rate of unplanned hospitalization for heart failure was 48.7% (74 of 152 patients) in the intervention group and 47.4% (72 of 152 patients) in the control group (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.56). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with severe secondary mitral regurgitation, the rate of death or unplanned hospitalization for heart failure at 1 year did not differ significantly between patients who underwent percutaneous mitral-valve repair in addition to receiving medical therapy and those who received medical therapy alone. (Funded by the French Ministry of Health and Research National Program and Abbott Vascular; MITRA-FR ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01920698 .).

Impact of sex on outcomes after percutaneous repair of functional mitral valve regurgitation.

BACKGROUND: The role of percutaneous repair of functional mitral regurgitation (MR) is evolving. Left ventricle remodeling is known to be different between men and women; however, outcomes following percutaneous repair of functional MR have not considered the impact of sex. METHODS: Between 2012 and 2018, 175 patients underwent percutaneous repair of functional MR with the Mitra Clip NT/NTR (Abbott) at our institution. Patients were assessed in a dedicated clinic with a follow-up that averaged 0.7 ± 1.2 years and extended to 5.7 years. RESULTS: Men had a larger body surface area than women (p < .001), and were more likely than women to have diabetes preoperatively (p = .02). There were no deaths or instances of single leaflet detachment. Immediate postprocedure MR was ≤2+ in 158 (90%) with a mean trans-mitral valve repair gradient of 3.4 ± 1.0 and 3.5 ± 2.1 mmHg, respectively for women and men (p = .8). One- and 2-year freedom from MR ≥3+ was 86.0 ± 3.5% and 77.6 ± 5.1%, respectively. After adjusting for differences between male and female patients, women were more likely to have recurrent MR ≥3+ (hazard ratio, 4.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-18.4; p = .03). Upon adjusted analysis, there was also no association between gender and survival (p = .2). One- and 2-year survival was 69.8 ± 4.3% and 54.3 ± 5.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Women are more likely to have recurrent severe MR after percutaneous repair of functional MR. The mechanism for this remains undetermined.

Isolated tricuspid valve surgery: impact of aetiology and clinical presentation on outcomes.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to identify determinants of in-hospital and mid-term outcomes after isolated tricuspid valve surgery (ITVS) and more specifically the impact of tricuspid regurgitation (TR) mechanism and clinical presentation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 5661 consecutive adult patients who underwent a tricuspid valve (TV) surgery at 12 French tertiary centres in 2007-2017 collected from a mandatory administrative database, we identified 466 patients (8% of all tricuspid surgeries) who underwent an ITVS. Most patients presented with advanced disease [47% in New York Heart Association (NYHA) III/IV, 57% with right-sided heart failure (HF) signs]. Tricuspid regurgitation was functional in 49% (22% with prior left-sided heart valve surgery and 27% isolated) and organic in 51% (infective endocarditis in 31% and other causes in 20%). In-hospital mortality and major complications rates were 10% and 31%, respectively. Rates of survival and survival free of HF readmission were 75% and 62% at 5 years. Patients with functional TR incurred a worse in-hospital mortality than those with organic TR (14% vs. 6%, P = 0.004), but presentation was more severe. Independent determinants of outcomes were NYHA Class III/IV [odd ratios (OR) = 2.7 (1.2-6.1), P = 0.01], moderate/severe right ventricular dysfunction [OR = 2.6 (1.2-5.8), P = 0.02], lower prothrombin time [OR = 0.98 (0.96-0.99), P = 0.008], and with borderline statistical significance, right-sided HF signs [OR = 2.4 (0.9-6.5), P = 0.06] while TR mechanism was not [OR = 0.7 (0.3-1.8), P = 0.88]. CONCLUSION: Isolated TV surgery was associated with high mortality and morbidity, both in hospital and during follow-up, predicted by the severity of the presentation but not by TR mechanism. Our results suggest that TV intervention should be performed earlier in the course of the disease.

Transcatheter mitral valve repair for functional mitral regurgitation using the Cardioband system: 1 year outcomes.

Aims: The Cardioband™ (Edwards Lifesciences) is a transcatheter implant designed to reduce mitral annulus size and mitral regurgitation (MR) severity. We report the 1-year outcomes of consecutive patients who underwent the Cardioband procedure between 2013 and 2016. Methods and results: Sixty patients with moderate or severe secondary MR (72 ± 7 years, 60% ischaemic origin) on guideline-recommended medical therapy were treated and analyzed at 11 European institutions. There were two in-hospital deaths (none device-related), one stroke, two coronary artery complications, and one tamponade. Anchor disengagement, observed in 10 patients (all but one in the first half of the population), resulted in device inefficacy in five patients and led to device modification half way through the study to mitigate this issue. Technical, device, and procedural successes, assessed based on Mitral Valve Academic Research Consortium (MVARC) criteria, were 97% (58/60), 72% (43/60), and 68% (41/60), respectively. At 1-year, overall survival, survival free of readmission for heart failure, and survival free of reintervention (performed in seven patients) were 87%, 66%, and 78%, respectively. In the overall population, MR grade at 12 months was moderate or less 61% and moderate or less in 95% of the 39 patients who underwent a transthoracic echocardiography at 1-year [but worsened by at least one grade in 11 patients (22%)]. Functional status (79% vs. 14% in New York Heart Association Class I/II), quality of life (-19 points on the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire score), and exercise capacity (+58 m by 6MWT) improved significantly (all P < 0.01). Conclusion: In this multicentre trial, the Cardioband mitral system demonstrated reasonable performance and safety. At 1 year, most patients had moderate or less MR and experienced significant functional improvements. A randomized controlled trial is underway to demonstrate the impact of Cardioband in patients on guideline-directed medical therapy.

Reduced risk of cancer among low-dose aspirin users: Data from French health care databases.

PURPOSE: The effect of chronic use of low-dose aspirin (LDA) on overall cancer is still unclear owing to many controversial results and methodological limitations of studies. This study aimed to assess the effect of LDA use on overall cancer incidence among the French population. METHODS: We conducted a 10-year historical cohort study using the permanent sample of the French national health care databases: the Système National des Données de Santé (SNDS). We used data for 111 025 individuals aged 50 to 80 years at study entry (January 1, 2006) without prevalent cancer or LDA use. Individuals were followed until the earliest of cancer incidence, death from any cause, exit from the database, or end of the study on December 31, 2015. We estimated the effect of LDA on cancer incidence by using a dynamic model to account for the competing risk of death in the presence of time-dependent exposure and risk factors. RESULTS: LDA use was associated with reduced 10-year risk of cancer (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.81 [95% CI 0.77-0.86]). The SHRs were 0.88 [0.82-0.94] for men and 0.93 [0.85-1.02] for women. Moreover, each additional year of LDA use was associated with reduced 10-year risk of cancer (SHR 0.93 [0.92-0.95]). LDA use was also associated with reduced 10-year risk of death (SHR 0.86 [0.82-0.91]). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first population-based study to demonstrate a protective effect of LDA on overall cancer incidence and to account for the main methodological issues of previous observational studies.

Quality of care assessment and improvement in aortic stenosis - rationale and design of a multicentre registry (IMPULSE).

BACKGROUND: Severe aortic stenosis (AS) is a common, serious valve disease in which no effective medical therapy is available and, if not treated by intervention, has a 5-year survival of only 40-60%. Despite the availability of guidelines supporting the effective use of surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) to treat the majority of these patients, adherence to these guidelines in clinical practice is still unsatisfactory. Several recent studies have emphasised the necessity for improved communication between multidisciplinary teams, with the aim to ensure that severe AS patients receive appropriate treatment. METHODS/DESIGN: IMPULSE is a prospective, multicentre, European registry designed to gather data over 12 months on the treatment decisions made by referring physicians for patients newly diagnosed with severe AS. Each patient has a follow-up of 3 months. The study will consist of two observational phases to assess the appropriateness and rate of referral based on current guidelines prior to and after an interventional phase aiming to determine whether a simple quality of care intervention improves patient management. DISCUSSION: Data will be analysed firstly, to determine the appropriateness of treatment decisions for the management of severe AS in current European clinical practice, and secondly, to evaluate the effectiveness of facilitated data relay from a designated echocardiography department nurse to the referring physician early after diagnosis in improving quality of care. Additionally, variables will be identified that are associated with inappropriate decision-making. Collectively, the aim will be to design a clinical pathway that will improve the timely management of patients with newly diagnosed severe AS.

Cardioband, a transcatheter surgical-like direct mitral valve annuloplasty system: early results of the feasibility trial.

AIMS: Cardioband system is a direct annuloplasty adjustable device that is implanted in the beating heart on the posterior annulus under fluoroscopic and transoesophageal echocardiographic (TEE) guidance. We report the early (1 month) outcomes of the first-in-man pre-CE-mark feasibility and safety trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study enrolled high-risk adult individuals at five institutions in Europe with symptomatic secondary mitral regurgitation (MR) despite optimal medical therapy. The primary efficacy endpoints included the technical success rate of implantation, feasibility of the Cardioband adjustment (technical performance), and ability to reduce the annular septolateral dimension and MR grade at hospital discharge and at 30 days. The study group included 31 consecutively enrolled high-risk patients with moderate-to-severe or severe secondary MR with at least 1 month of follow-up (mean age 71.8 ± 6.9 years). All patients received the full implant of a Cardioband. Adjustment of the Cardioband resulted in a significant reduction in the septolateral dimension in all but two patients (septolateral dimension from 36.8 ± 4.8 to 29 ± 5.5 mm after the procedure, P < 0.01). Following Cardioband adjustment (29 of 31 patients) MR was none or trace in 6 (21%), mild in 21 (72%), and moderate in 2 (7%). No patient had severe MR after adjustment. Procedural mortality was zero and in-hospital mortality was 6.5% (2 of 31 patients, neither procedure- nor device-related). At 30 days, 22 of the 25 patients (88%) had MR ≤2+. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility and safety of percutaneous direct mitral annuloplasty with the Cardioband device in high-risk patients with MR.

A clinical risk score of myocardial fibrosis predicts adverse outcomes in aortic stenosis.

AIMS: Midwall myocardial fibrosis on cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is a marker of early ventricular decompensation and adverse outcomes in aortic stenosis (AS). We aimed to develop and validate a novel clinical score using variables associated with midwall fibrosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred forty-seven patients (peak aortic velocity (Vmax) 3.9 [3.2,4.4] m/s) underwent CMR to determine midwall fibrosis (CMR cohort). Routine clinical variables that demonstrated significant association with midwall fibrosis were included in a multivariate logistic score. We validated the prognostic value of the score in two separate outcome cohorts of asymptomatic patients (internal: n = 127, follow-up 10.3 [5.7,11.2] years; external: n = 289, follow-up 2.6 [1.6,4.5] years). Primary outcome was a composite of AS-related events (cardiovascular death, heart failure, and new angina, dyspnoea, or syncope). The final score consisted of age, sex, Vmax, high-sensitivity troponin I concentration, and electrocardiographic strain pattern [c-statistic 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.78-0.91), P < 0.001; Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) = 7.33, P = 0.50]. Patients in the outcome cohorts were classified according to the sensitivity and specificity of this score (both at 98%): low risk (probability score <7%), intermediate risk (7-57%), and high risk (>57%). In the internal outcome cohort, AS-related event rates were >10-fold higher in high-risk patients compared with those at low risk (23.9 vs. 2.1 events/100 patient-years, respectively; log rank P < 0.001). Similar findings were observed in the external outcome cohort (31.6 vs. 4.6 events/100 patient-years, respectively; log rank P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We propose a clinical score that predicts adverse outcomes in asymptomatic AS patients and potentially identifies high-risk patients who may benefit from early valve replacement.