Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters.

Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas.

Throughfall under a teak plantation in Thailand: a multifactorial analysis on the effects of canopy phenology and meteorological conditions.

Valuable teak (Tectona grandis Linn. f.) plantations cover vast areas throughout Southeast Asia. This study sought to increase our understanding of throughfall inputs under teak by analyzing the abiotic and biotic factors governing throughfall amounts and ratios in relation to three canopy phenophases (leafless, leafing, and leafed). There was no rain during the brief leaf senescence phenophase in our study. Leveraging detailed field observations, we employed boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis to identify the primary controls on throughfall amount and ratio during each canopy phenophase. Whereas throughfall amounts were always dominated by rainfall magnitude (as expected), throughfall ratios were governed by a suite of predictor variables during each phenophase. The BRT analysis demonstrated that throughfall ratio in the leafless phase was most influenced (in descending order of importance) by air temperature, rainfall amount, maximum wind speed, and rainfall intensity. Throughfall ratio in the leafed phenophase was dominated by rainfall amount. The leafing phenophase was an intermediate case where rainfall amount, air temperature, and vapor pressure deficit were most important. Our results highlight the fact that throughfall ratios are differentially influenced by a suite of meteorological variables during each canopy phenophase. Abiotic variables, such as rainfall amount and air temperature, trumped leaf area index and stand density in their effect on throughfall ratio. The leafing phenophase, while transitional in nature and short in duration, has a detectable and unique impact on water inputs to teak plantations. Further work is needed to better understand the biogeochemistry of leaf emergence in teak plantations.

Tree dynamic response and survival in a category-5 tropical cyclone: The case of super typhoon Trami.

In the future with climate change, we expect more forest and tree damage due to the increasing strength and changing trajectories of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, to date, we have limited information to estimate likely damage levels, and nobody has ever measured exactly how forest trees behave mechanically during a TC. In 2018, a category-5 TC destroyed trees in our ongoing research plots, in which we were measuring tree movement and wind speed in two different tree spacing plots. We found damaged trees in only the wider spaced plot. Here, we present how trees dynamically respond to strong winds during a TC. Sustained strong winds obviously trigger the damage to trees and forests but inter-tree spacing is also a key factor because the level of support from neighboring trees modifies the effective "stiffness" against the wind both at the single tree and whole forest stand level.

Vertical distribution and transport of radiocesium via branchflow and stemflow through the canopy of cedar and oak stands in the aftermath of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

Aiming to fill a need for data regarding radiocesium transport via both branchflow and stemflow through forests impacted by radioactive fallout, this study examined the vertical variation of radiocesium flux from branchflow and stemflow through the canopies of young Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica (L. f.) D. Don) and Japanese oak (Quercus serrata Murray) trees in the aftermath of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. In forested areas approximately 40 km northwest of the location of the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident, the 137Cs concentration varied significantly among sampling periods and between the two forests, with the oak stand exhibiting higher 137Cs concentrations and depositional fluxes than the cedar stand. Expressed per unit trunk basal area, the depositional flux of 137Cs generated from the cedar and oak stands was 375 and 2810 Bq m-2 year-1, respectively. Of this total, 71% and 48% originated from the cedar and oak canopy, respectively, while the remainder originated from the trunk. Accordingly, the origin of radiocesium was more balanced for the oak stand with almost half of the flux coming from the canopy (48%) and the other half from the trunk (52%). Only about a quarter (29%) of the radiocesium flux originated from the trunk in Japanese cedar. Results from this work provide needed data that can enable a more thorough conceptualization of radiocesium cycling in forests. Coupling these empirical results with a physically-based model would likely lead to better forest management and proactive strategies for rehabilitating radioactively-contaminated forests and reducing the exposure risk of radiation dose rate for those that utilize forest products.

Stemflow-induced spatial heterogeneity of radiocesium concentrations and stocks in the soil of a broadleaved deciduous forest.

The transport of radiocesium from the canopy and quantification of the spatial distribution of radiocesium in the soil of konara oak forests are important to better understand the variability of 137Cs stocks in the soil between proximal and distal stem areas as well as fine-scale variations around the tree trunk. Moreover, a better understanding of fine-scale spatial variabilities of 137Cs concentrations and stocks will provide insights for optimizing soil sampling strategies to provide a more robust estimation of contamination at the stand scale. This study aims to elucidate the transport of 137Cs by stemflow in a radioactively contaminated konara oak forest in Tsukuba, Japan by describing and quantifying the fine-scale spatial distribution of 137Cs in the soil and preferential flowpaths of stemflow on the tree stem by a dye tracing experiment. 137Cs concentrations and stocks were higher in the soils of the proximal stem area than distal stem area when they corresponded with the preferential flowpaths of stemflow. There was a significant relationship between canopy projection area of individual trees and average soil 137Cs concentrations and stocks, even though canopies of the trees overlapped. Our results demonstrate that the spatiality of 137Cs concentrations and stocks in the soil of the proximal stem area are governed (at least partially) by the preferential flowpaths of stemflow along the tree trunk. In addition, higher 137Cs concentrations and stocks in the near-trunk soils of trees with larger crown areas might be caused by an enhanced ability to capture dry deposition.

Export of radioactive cesium from agricultural fields under simulated rainfall in Fukushima.

In this study, we investigated the impact of rainfall on runoff, soil erosion and consequently on the discharge of radioactive cesium in agricultural fields in Fukushima prefecture using a rainfall simulator. Simulated heavy rainfalls (50 mm h(-1)) generated significant runoff and soil erosion. The average concentration of radioactive cesium (the sum of (134)Cs and (137)Cs) in the runoff sediments was ∼3500 Bq kg(-1) dry soil, more than double the concentrations measured in the field soils which should be considered in studies using the (137)Cs loss to estimate long-term soil erosion. However, the estimated mass of cesium discharged through one runoff event was less than 2% of the cesium inventory in the field. This suggested that cesium discharge via soil erosion is not a significant factor in reducing the radioactivity of contaminated soils in Fukushima prefecture. However, the eroded sediment carrying radioactive cesium will deposit into the river systems and potentially pose a radioactivity risk for aquatic living organisms.

Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident.

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident.

The total amounts of radioactively contaminated materials in forests in Fukushima, Japan.

There has been leakage of radioactive materials from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. A heavily contaminated area (≥ ¹³4,¹³7Cs 1000 kBq m⁻²) has been identified in the area northwest of the plant. The majority of the land in the contaminated area is forest. Here we report the amounts of biomass, litter (small organic matter on the surface of the soil), coarse woody litter, and soil in the contaminated forest area. The estimated overall volume and weight were 33 Mm³ (branches, leaves, litter, and coarse woody litter are not included) and 21 Tg (dry matter), respectively. Our results suggest that removing litter is an efficient method of decontamination. However, litter is being continuously decomposed, and contaminated leaves will continue to fall on the soil surface for several years; hence, the litter should be removed promptly but continuously before more radioactive elements are transferred into the soil.