Machine learning versus multivariate logistic regression for predicting severe COVID-19 in hospitalized children with Omicron variant infection.

With the emergence of the Omicron variant, the number of pediatric Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases requiring hospitalization and developing severe or critical illness has significantly increased. Machine learning and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to predict risk factors and develop prognostic models for severe COVID-19 in hospitalized children with the Omicron variant in this study. Of the 544 hospitalized children including 243 and 301 in the mild and severe groups, respectively. Fever (92.3%) was the most common symptom, followed by cough (79.4%), convulsions (36.8%), and vomiting (23.2%). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (1-3 years old, odds ratio (OR): 3.193, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.778-5.733], comorbidity (OR: 1.993, 95% CI:1.154-3.443), cough (OR: 0.409, 95% CI:0.236-0.709), and baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (OR: 1.108, 95% CI: 1.023-1.200), lactate dehydrogenase (OR: 1.993, 95% CI: 1.154-3.443), blood urea nitrogen (OR: 1.002, 95% CI: 1.000-1.003) and total bilirubin (OR: 1.178, 95% CI: 1.005-3.381) were independent risk factors for severe COVID-19. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction models constructed by multivariate logistic regression analysis and machine learning (RandomForest + TomekLinks) were 0.7770 and 0.8590, respectively. The top 10 most important variables of random forest variables were selected to build a prediction model, with an AUC of 0.8210. Compared with multivariate logistic regression, machine learning models could more accurately predict severe COVID-19 in children with Omicron variant infection.

Neurological manifestations and risk factors associated with poor prognosis in hospitalized children with Omicron variant infection.

There are increasing reports of neurological manifestation in children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the frequency and clinical outcomes of in hospitalized children infected with the Omicron variant are unknown. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics, neurological manifestations, and risk factor associated with poor prognosis of hospitalized children suffering from COVID-19 due to the Omicron variant. Participants included children older than 28 days and younger than 18 years. Patients were recruited from December 10, 2022 through January 5, 2023. They were followed up for 30 days. A total of 509 pediatric patients hospitalized with the Omicron variant infection were recruited into the study. Among them, 167 (32.81%) patients had neurological manifestations. The most common manifestations were febrile convulsions (n = 90, 53.89%), viral encephalitis (n = 34, 20.36%), epilepsy (n = 23, 13.77%), hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (n = 9, 5.39%), and acute necrotizing encephalopathy (n = 6, 3.59%). At discharge, 92.81% of patients had a good prognosis according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale (scores ≥ 4). However, 7.19% had a poor prognosis. Eight patients died during the follow-up period with a cumulative 30-day mortality rate of 4.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-8.1). Multivariate analysis revealed that albumin (odds ratio 0.711, 95% CI 0.556-0.910) and creatine kinase MB (CK-MB) levels (odds ratio 1.033, 95% CI 1.004-1.063) were independent risk factors of poor prognosis due to neurological manifestations. The area under the curve for the prediction of poor prognosis with albumin and CK-MB was 0.915 (95%CI 0.799-1.000), indicating that these factors can accurately predict a poor prognosis.          Conclusion: In this study, 32.8% of hospitalized children suffering from COVID-19 due to the Omicron variant infection experienced neurological manifestations. Baseline albumin and CK-MB levels could accurately predict poor prognosis in this patient population. What is Known: • Neurological injury has been reported in SARS-CoV-2 infection; compared with other strains, the Omicron strain is more likely to cause neurological manifestations in adults. • Neurologic injury in adults such as cerebral hemorrhage and epilepsy has been reported in patients with Omicron variant infection. What is New: • One-third hospitalized children with Omicron infection experience neurological manifestations, including central nervous system manifestations and peripheral nervous system manifestations. • Albumin and CK-MB combined can accurately predict poor prognosis (AUC 0.915), and the 30-day mortality rate of children with Omicron variant infection and neurological manifestations was 4.8%.

[Analysis of a novel JAG1 variant and clinical phenotype in a family affected with Alagille syndrome].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the genetic basis of a pedigree affected with Alagille syndrome (ALGS). METHODS: Targeted capture and next generation sequencing was carried out for the proband. Candidate variants were verified by Sanger sequencing among his family members. Their pathogenicity of the variant was predicted with bioinformatic analysis. Clinical characteristics and genotype-phenotype correlation were analyzed. RESULTS: The proband, his elder sister and mother were found to carry a heterozygous c.1270dupG (p.Ala424Glyfs*5) variant of the JAG1 gene, which may lead to premature termination of translation and a truncated protein with loss of function. The variant was unreported previously. The phenotypes of the proband (cholestasis, pulmonary artery stenosis and peculiar faces) have differed from those of his elder sister (cholestasis with pruritus, posterior embryonic ring of cornea) and mother (with no clinical manifestation). Cholestasis and peculiar face of the proband became insignificant with age. CONCLUSION: The c.1270dupG (p.Ala424Glyfs*5) variant of the JAG1 gene probably underlay the ALGS in this pedigree with incomplete penetrance.

The global prevalence ptxP3 lineage of Bordetella pertussis was rare in young children with the co-purified aPV vaccination: a 5 years retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The global prevalent ptxP3 strains varies from about 10% to about 50% of circulating B. pertussis population in different areas of China. METHODS: To investigate the difference of vaccination status between different genotypes in the circulating B. pertussis after 10 years of acellular pertussis vaccine (aPV) used in China. The nasopharyngeal swabs and isolates of B. pertussis from these patients were used to perform genotyping of antigen genes. We use antibiotic susceptibility test against erythromycin and sequencing methods for site 2047 of 23S rRNA to determine the resistance status. RESULTS: The ptxP1 allele with erythromycin resistant (ER) B. pertussis infection (total of 449 subjects) consisted of 84.70 to 96.70% from 2012 to 2016 in this study. Vaccinated with co-purified aPV was found in 133(133/403,33.0%), 1(1/9,11.1%) and 2(2/21,9.5%) in ptxP1/fhaB3-ER, ptxP1/fhaB2-ES and ptxP3/fhaB2-ES B. pertussis infected children each, which showed a significant difference (χ2 = 6.87, P = 0.032). CONCLUSIONS: The ptxP3-ES B. pertussis was rare while the ptxP1-ER B. pertussis was steadily increased in Xi'an, China from 2012 to 2016, where co-purified aPV was prevalent used. This pose a hypothesis that the co-purified aPV might protect against ptxP3 strains more efficient, which generated a rare chance for ptxP3 strains to be under the antibiotic pressure and further developed to be erythromycin resistance. A further cohort study and the mechanisms of the additional antigen proteins of co-purified aPV protected against B. pertussis should be consideration.

Global trends in the incidence rates of MDR and XDR tuberculosis: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Purpose: The study aimed to quantify the global trends of the incidence rates of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (XDR-TB). Methods: Cases, age-standardized rates (ASRs), and incidence rates of MDR-TB and XDR-TB during 2010-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The incidence trends of MDR-TB and XDR-TB were evaluated using the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASRs. The relationships among the ASRs of MDR-TB and XDR-TB, the MDR rate, the XDR rate, and socio-demographic index (SDI) were assessed using locally weighted regression and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results: The global ASR of MDR-TB on average decreased by 1.36% (EAPC = -1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.19 to -0.52) per year whereas that of XDR-TB was stable (EAPC = 0.69, 95% CI = -0.15-1.54) during 2010-2019. The incidence trends of MDR-TB in most regions and countries were decreasing, but those of XDR-TB were increasing. People aged 35-44 and 55-64 years had the highest incidence rates for MDR-TB and XDR-TB. The MDR and XDR rates both peaked in those aged 35-44 years. Areas with higher SDI tended to have lower ASRs of MDR-TB (p < 0.001, ρ = -0.43). Conclusion: The current achievements for the incidence trends of MDR-TB and XDR-TB are insufficient. More strategies and tools need to be developed to further curb MDR-TB and XDR-TB, especially in high-risk areas and age groups, and in low SDI regions.

Evaluation of serum anti-pertussis toxin IgA antibodies for the diagnosis of Bordetella pertussis infection in young children.

BACKGROUND: The determination of serum anti-pertussis toxin (PT) IgG antibodies is recommended for the diagnosis and surveillance of pertussis. However, the diagnostic power of anti-PT IgG can be hampered by possible interference from previous vaccinations. We aim to assess if anti-PT IgA antibodies can be well induced by Bordetella pertussis (B. pertussis) infections in children, and their capacity to improve pertussis serodiagnosis. METHODS: Serum samples from 172 hospitalized children younger than 10 years old with confirmed pertussis were tested. Pertussis was confirmed by culture, PCR and/or serology. Anti-PT IgA antibodies were determined with commercial ELISA kits. RESULTS: Sixty-four (37.2 %) subjects had anti-PT IgA antibodies greater than or equal to 15 IU/ml, and 52 (30.2 %) of them had anti-PT IgA antibodies greater than or equal to 20 IU/ml. No children with negative anti-PT IgG (less than 40 IU/ml) were observed to have anti-PT IgA antibodies greater than or equal to 15 IU/ml. Of patients younger than one year of age, about 50 % had an IgA antibody response. Moreover, the proportion of subjects with anti-PT IgA antibodies greater than or equal to 15 IU/ml among PCR negative subjects was significantly higher than that among PCR positive subjects (76.9 % vs 35.5 %). CONCLUSIONS: The determination of anti-PT IgA antibodies does not seem to have added value for the serodiagnosis of pertussis in children older than one year of age. However, for infants, determination of serum anti-PT IgA antibodies appears to be useful for the diagnosis of pertussis especially when PCR and culture are negative. The results should be interpreted with caution as the number of subjects included in this study was limited.

Determination of serum neutralizing antibodies reveals important difference in quality of antibodies against pertussis toxin in children after infection.

OBJECTIVES: To determine neutralizing antibodies to pertussis toxin (PTNAs) in children with suspected pertussis and to compare results of PTNAs and anti-PT IgG antibodies. METHODS: 172 hospitalized children with suspected pertussis were included. Pertussis was confirmed by culture, PCR and/or serology. PTNAs were determined by Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell assay. RESULTS: A correlation between titers of PTNAs and anti-PT IgG levels was noticed in 172 patients (Spearman R = 0.68, P < 0.001). Subjects with same concentrations of anti-PT IgG antibodies could have different titers of PTNAs and the maximum difference observed reached to 1024 times in ELISA-confirmed patients. Moreover, subjects with same titers of PTNAs could have different concentrations of anti-PT IgG antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that in some children high concentrations of anti-PT IgG antibodies do not always mean effective PTNAs induced after infection, stressing the importance of detecting PTNAs after infection and vaccination. Clinical trial registry: Not applicable.

Design and validation of a noninvasive diagnostic criteria for biliary atresia in infants based on the STROBE compliant.

It is difficult for clinicians to distinguish biliary atresia (BA) from other causes of neonatal cholestasis (NC) at an early stage. The aim of this study was to design and validate noninvasive diagnostic criterion for early diagnosis of BA in infants.In this retrospective cohort study, a total of 482 medical records of patients with NC were recruited to design diagnostic criteria. Parameters showing a significant difference between BA (n = 166) and non-BA (n = 316) patients were analyzed by logistic regression to predict the occurrence of BA, and then a nomogram scoring system was designed and validated in another cohort that included 190 cases of NC.A prediction diagnostic criterion with parameters including direct bilirubin, total bilirubin, globulin, albumin, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, cholesterol, total bile acid, hepatobiliary scintigraphy, birth weight, and stool color was established; the sensitivity and specificity of this diagnostic criterion was 89% and 84%, respectively. The accuracy was 86% and the AUC was 0.91 [95% CI (0.88-0.97)]. The total score ranged from 0 to 402, with a cut-off value of ≥254 discriminating BA from other causes of NC. By applying this score in the validation set with age <60 days, the accuracy was 95.3%, the sensitivity was 93.8% and the specificity was 96.0%, respectively.This prediction diagnostic criterion could facilitate clinicians to distinguish infants with and without BA based on a particular series of parameters, reducing treatment burden and enhancing therapeutic efficiency.

Genomic epidemiology of erythromycin-resistant Bordetella pertussis in China.

Macrolides such as erythromycin are the empirical treatment of Bordetella pertussis infections. China has experienced an increase in erythromycin-resistant B. pertussis isolates since they were first reported in 2013. Here, we undertook a genomic study on Chinese B. pertussis isolates from 2012 to 2015 to elucidate the origins and phylogenetic relationships of erythromycin-resistant B. pertussis isolates in China. A total of 167 Chinese B. pertussis isolates were used for antibiotic sensitivity testing and multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis (MLVA). All except four isolates were erythromycin-resistant and of the four erythromycin-sensitive isolates, three were non-ptxP1. MLVA types (MT), MT55, MT104 and MT195 were the predominant types. Fifty of those isolates were used for whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis revealed three independent erythromycin-resistant lineages and all resistant isolates carried a mutation in the 23S rRNA gene. A novel fhaB3 allele was found uniquely in Chinese ptxP1 isolates and these Chinese ptxP1-ptxA1-fhaB3 had a 5-fold higher mutation rate than the global ptxP1-ptxA1 B. pertussis population. Our results suggest that the evolution of Chinese B. pertussis is likely to be driven by selection pressure from both vaccination and antibiotics. The emergence of the new non-vaccine fhaB3 allele in Chinese B. pertussis population may be a result of selection from vaccination, whereas the expansion of ptxP1-fhaB3 lineages was most likely to be the result of selection pressure from antibiotics. Further monitoring of B. pertussis in China is required to better understand the evolution of the pathogen.

[Recognizing the vaccination strategy of pertussis according to the family aggregation feature of transmission].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the age distribution of pertussis patients admitted in the children hospital and to analyze the source of infection as well as its transmission patterns. METHODS: Patients visiting to the Children Hospital and epidemiologically related cases during Feb. 2012 to Aug. 2013 were tested to confirm the diagnosis. Excel 2007 software was used to analyze the age distribution and clinical symptoms of clinic cases, the source of infection or subsequent cases. RESULTS: 165 out of 254 clinically suspicious pertussis cases and 38 out of the 54 epidemiologically related cases were confirmed of having pertussis infection. There were 138 (83.6%) cases under 1 year of age in the confirmed clinical cases and 36 (94.7%) cases older than 20 years of age among the confirmed epidemiologically related pertussis cases. All the confirmed epidemiologically related cases were misdiagnosed or missed for diagnosis. As the source of pertussis infection in confirmed clinical cases, parents played an imported role among 25 of the 32 cases. Transmission from infants and/or little children to adults were also observed in this study. CONCLUSION: Infants accounted for the most among the pertussis patients that visiting the clinics. Adults, being misdiagnosed or missed diagnosed, were the main sources of infection to infants. Epidemics of pertussis occurred under family aggregation. Further study was in need to develop the proper strategy for pertussis booster vaccination.